Tuesday, December 17, 2013

MYEFO - December 17,2013 - Health Sector Implications - Gentle Cut Back.

There is a useful table on Page 71 of the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO). All in millions of dollars.
2013-14:
Health
Budget (May 2013)        Today
64,636 Million       64,685 Million (basically unchanged)
2014-15:
Health
Budget (May 2013)        Today
68,081 Million       67,592 Million (-1%)
2015-16:
Health
Budget (May 2013)        Today
71,597  Million      70,870 Million  (-1%)
2016-17:
Health
Budget (May 2013)        Today
75,493 Million      74,574 Million  (-1%)
So what we see is growth in the Commonwealth Health Budget but the rate of growth, in aggregate, compared with the Labor plans is steadily cut back. There seems be roughly 10 billion added in a budget which hits almost 75 Billion. $2.5Billion looks to be about 3.3% on average. Given health inflation tends to run at 5-6% p.a. this is a real cut which looks to be over $2 billion over 4 years.
The full document is here:
The main health specific cuts for this year are cancellation of this program:
There are also some additional but smaller additions to the Budget.
Page 104 of MYEFO (as numbered) provides a detailed breakdown. They amount to about $250 million over the 4 years - so clearly more savings to come.
Interestingly there is $5M for eMental health over 3 years added.
No apparent e-Health announcements.
David.

7 comments:

Bernard Robertson-Dunn said...

The $5m e-mental health initiative was an election promise.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/abbott-promises-youth-mental-health-centre/story-fn3dxiwe-1226707628142

Although I don't know if it makes sense for a mental health research centre to develop a system/platform.

The same news report says:

"A national centre for youth mental health will be established under a coalition government to combat a "hidden epidemic" in Australia.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott pledged $18 million for the centre on Friday, declaring mental health to be the hidden epidemic in modern Australia.

The funding would go to mental health provider Orygen to set up the National Centre for Excellence in Youth Mental Health.

The centre would undertake clinical trials and research into youth mental health, develop new forms of interventions, and provide training and other career support for up to 12,000 mental health workers.


I can't see that in the MYEFO, maybe someone else can find it.

Dr David More MB PhD FACHI said...

Bernard,

I also did not find that initiative. p104 has a listing of all the changes - maybe in the contingency reserve?

David.


Bernard Robertson-Dunn said...

David
Maybe a non-core pledge?
Bernard

Anonymous said...

Not so gentle there... some good programs dumped. $10 million for cancer treatment units at Nepean Hospital, $6m for an MRI at Mt Druitt, $15m for a neonatal care unit at Flinders in SA, money for stroke response and cancer care nurses, chemo chairs around country, not to mention redevelopment of Westmead Hospital, urgent upgrades at St George in Sydney, plus several medical research institutes...

Dr David More MB PhD FACHI said...

Overall gentle, but as you say some really bad cuts. Especially cancelling the Stroke Care initiative.

Clinically clueless is what they are!

David.

Anonymous said...

And Mr Rabbit is running around saying "we are doing what we promised to do."

Roll on a double dissolution.

Dr David More MB PhD FACHI said...

Health Inflation:

"Overall inflation may be low, but rising healthcare costs mean the cost of living for older Australians may be much higher than they had budgeted for. Healthcare provider Australian Unity puts health services inflation at 6 per cent, compared with general inflation of about 2.2 per cent."

Enough said.

David.