The assumption is that Labor forms the next Federal Government. With the polls looking the way they are I reckon I am on pretty safe ground.
See here:
Coalition trails Labor 45-55 in Newspoll
The federal Coalition trails the Labor Opposition 45 to 55 per cent in the latest Newspoll, a big and consistent gap that suggests the removal of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull cost the government half a million votes.
Before the week that toppled Australia's twenty-ninth prime minister, the Coalition's support on a two-party preferred basis was 49 per cent, according to a Newspoll published Monday morning.
In the eight Newspolls since, Coalition support has averaged 45.25 per cent, a difference of 534,825 votes based on the 14.2 million votes cast in the 2016 House of Representatives election.
Lots more here:
It looks like London to a brick on to me!
This will, almost inevitably lead to Ms King being Health Minister
The 12 Labor figures who will do the heavy lifting in government
14 Dec 2018 — 11:00 PM
……
Catherine King, Health and Medicare
Age: 52, Member for Ballarat, Victoria
After Tanya Plibersek and Penny Wong, King is one of the most senior women within Labor's caucus and is on track to become health minister. Part of the Left faction, she was the only Labor candidate to win a new seat in John Howard's 2001 Tampa election victory and has built a strong personal following in Ballarat since. She publicly supported Anthony Albanese over Shorten in the 2013 leadership vote. She is viewed as one of the quiet achievers on the Opposition frontbench, but some in Labor criticised King's performance in the lead-up to the 2013 federal election – despite the party's success in nearly defeating Malcolm Turnbull with its bitter "Mediscare" campaign. The former social worker and management consultant is respected in the health community and helps reinforce Labor's natural advantage in the policy area. Tom McIlroy
Here is the link:
Here:
28 November 2018
ALP to keep pressure on health pain point
After its victory over the My Health Record legislation, federal Labor shows no sign of letting up on health as a pain point for the government.
The MHR amendments were rubber-stamped on Monday, after a battle in the Senate in which the government was forced to accept demands for stricter safeguards and tougher penalties for privacy breaches.
However, Labor’s health spokesperson Catherine King is maintaining a call for the Privacy Commissioner to conduct a review of the security settings available to patients who choose to keep a My Health Record.
The opposition party says the review is needed to ensure “an appropriate balance between utility for clinicians, patients and others such as carers, and privacy and security for individuals”.
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And here:
Labor turns up the heat on My Health with push to extend deadline
By Dana McCauley
Pressure is mounting for Health Minister Greg Hunt to suspend the government's My Health Record roll-out, with Labor to move a motion in the Senate on Wednesday extending the opt-out period beyond the Thursday deadline.
"We will seek crossbench support to amend the government’s legislation to extend the opt-out period for a further 12 months – in line with a key recommendation of the recent Senate inquiry," opposition health spokeswoman Catherine King said.
About 17 million Australians will be automatically enrolled in the e-health system if they do not opt out by Thursday.
Mr Hunt has refused to further extend the opt-out deadline, after already giving Australians an extra month to decide.
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These make it clear what the Labor view on what has gone on so far.
So my predictions are:
1. With the ANAO conducting an Audit of how the #myHealthRecord program has been conducted we are going to see increasing staff turnover and loss at the ADHA.
2. The Chair ( + Board) and CEO will try to last till February after Opt-Out starts and then pretty soon thereafter claim victory and move on to greener pastures.
3. As soon as Ms King is in place as Health Minister she will pause the program for a detailed review and to await the Auditor-General report in October. If the CEO and Chair ( + Board) are still in place they will be out at this point.
4. The A-G will be quite critical of what has gone on and will suggest either major investment or care and maintenance of the system with a reversion to opt-in in either case.
No doubt 2019 will be a major year for the System and Program.
What do you see in your crystal ball?
David.
5 comments:
All fair predictions David. My only adjustment would be the CEO and a hair is February. Looking at the board cycles I would suggest formalities at the March sitting with announcements March/April. How this plays out is full of risk. If the department steps in and takes over the ADHA functions, you can kiss goodbye any hope of moving forward.
My prediction if the CEO, COO and all the other executives are booted in March, we will only know in a few years and only through an FOI.
Re Prediction 4:
"The A-G will be quite critical of what has gone on and will suggest either major investment or care and maintenance of the system with a reversion to opt-in in either case."
My guess is that the ANAO will find that the original business case was flawed and that there is no evidence that the benefits are either realistic or justified.
The ANAO is not equipped to comment on the content of the business case, just that it is woefully inadequate. They will recommend that there is an independent review of the whole project to identify if it is ever to deliver value for money.
By the time all these reviews have happened, it will be impossible for the myhr to survive. The ADHA might survive, but not as the System Operator of myhr. IMHO, it will end up as a division of the Department of Health.
Of course the whole thing might be short circuited if the Labor party just dumps it.
The ANAO review will proceed but in the context of lessons learned.
David, your predictions are all fair and reasonable.
The issue that intrigues me is whether the Commonwealth either has or seeks a Plan B.
By Plan B I mean to suggest a new and different approach to digital health which is understandable by clinicians, managers and the general public, is incremental, and can be seen to deliver benefits apparent to all stakeholders.
In the past Commonwealth Health has been prepared to simply abandon an approach which wasn't working even if it had COAG support for something different which could garner COAG support.
The real question is whether an incoming Labour Government can see its way past its previous support for the MyHR to embrace a new approach.
I believe evidence will mount that this system discourages improved clinical hand over, leading to increased clinical risk for patients. I also believe an issue ignored by ADHA will surface again demonstrating clinical risk and that as a system it is to high maintenance
I would love to see the ACCC shut it down as an inhibitor to innovation, competition and against the interests or the consumer.
For those who haven't seen it, there is a MJA article
My Health Record: legal challenges
https://insightplus.mja.com.au/2018/48/my-health-record-legal-challenges/
Apart from the article itself, there is an interesting Poll at the end,
My Health Record: staying in or opting out?
Opting out (72%, 395 Votes)
Staying in (28%, 152 Votes)
Total Voters: 547
Four observations.
1. Health professionals are unconvinced of the benefit of myhr but understand the costs and risks.
2. ADHA has failed to energise the population into wanting a myhr. In fact the opt-out numbers (rumoured to be about 2 million) show that many people don't trust the government with their health data.
3. The ANAO review is the first serious assessment of the project and IMHO will find so many holes in the whole process it just isn't funny.
4. There is an election on the way. If Labor wins, they will probably make a risk assessment and find that there is no possible political benefit just potential risk and funding costs they could well do without. It will be either killed off or put on the back-burner until its meagre funding runs out and is quietly retired like the tired old dog it is.
IMHO, Tim has painted himself into a corner. If he hangs around until the ANAO report he'll be tainted forever with another health data debacle. If he goes before, say June next year, he will be accused of deserting a sinking ship.
Having lived through (and sometimes participated in) multiple similar government disasters, my prediction is that it's all over bar the shouting.
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