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In the US Trump is behaving like a stupid brat and making life tougher for millions. He really is a totally failed human being that deserves severe retribution when he leaves office. I wonder what went on in Nashville?
In the UK it seems Brexit is done as COVID rages terribly. It does not look like it will end quickly!
In OZ all goes well except in the Sydney Northern Beaches where COVID rumbles on. Elsewhere the holiday torpor has taken over…
Happy New Year!
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Major Issues.
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The sheriffs are coming for Robinhood and its army of new investors
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
December 21, 2020 — 11.53am
The sheriffs have started targeting Robinhood, the sharemarket trading app that has revolutionised retail investing in the United States and in the process ignited a debate about its role in the surge in new investors in the market during the pandemic.
Robinhood, which pioneered “no commission” trading, has been credited with leading a retail investor boom that has seen a massive increase in retail participation in the US market.
The app has attracted novice investors with its slick presentation, its email updates and mobile phone alerts, the use of emojis and confetti blasts on completion of trades and the offer of free shares in popular companies for bringing new users to the platform.
While those investors are usually unsophisticated, the investments on offer aren’t. Investors can use leverage, trade derivatives such as call options and can buy fractions of high-denomination shares.
Not surprisingly, given the unfortunate history of “bellhops” – unsophisticated investors – in the market, the regulators in the highly-regulated financial markets are starting to pay close attention.
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Could the medic replace the miner in China's import appetites?
China has a history of picking and choosing what it wants from the rest of the world. Health expertise is one area where Australia could start improving its fortunes in the country.
Tanveer Ahmed Contributor
Dec 21, 2020 – 12.34pm
In the wake of a strained relationship with our largest trading partner, China, healthcare could become a new strategic export to be developed for greater leverage.
The diplomatic bust-up between Australia and China has dragged in the sacred and the iconic for both sides, with Australian soldiers mocked in a Chinese diplomatic tweet, while the Chinese for their part have reacted to perceived affronts to their civilisational status.
Henry Kissinger in his book On China writes that every country has a sense of manifest destiny, but “American exceptionalism is missionary”. In contrast China’s exceptionalism is cultural, outlined in a New York Times book review by Michiko Kakutani.
Kissinger writes that China does not expect that its institutions “are relevant outside China” but does classify “all other states as various levels of tributaries based on their approximation to Chinese cultural and political forms”.
As a result, Australia’s geopolitical self image as punching above its weight may not always serve us well from China’s point of view.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-morrison-rejects-the-stakeholder-economy-20201218-p56olq
Why Morrison rejects the 'stakeholder' economy
The debate about COVID-19 crisis resetting capitalism has little traction here so far. But the PM is already making the case against a more socialist approach.
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Dec 23, 2020 – 12.00am
Twice in the lead-up to Christmas, Scott Morrison, without prompting, defended capitalism.
It was a harbinger of a broader economic debate to come in 2021, globally and domestically, as the rollout of vaccines enables the world to move past the health crisis and focus on fixing economic destruction the virus has wrought.
When, at the start of the crisis, the federal government began shelling out billions in support and stimulus, while urging the banks to defer loan repayments and landlords to waive rents, Morrison cautioned that this did not represent a philosophical change in that the Coalition had suddenly embraced socialism.
But elsewhere around the world, especially in the northern hemisphere, there have been murmurings that the coronavirus pandemic must be used as a catalyst to reset capitalism.
What that means remains a contested and at times nebulous concept. The far right sees it as a plan for global government. The left, to varying degrees, sees it as a need for greater wealth redistribution.
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Coles workers face bleak Christmas as wave of automation sweeps industry
By Nick Bonyhady
December 23, 2020 — 1.13pm
Matthew Wood has been trying to work out what to tell his children after he was locked out of his job as a Coles warehouse worker without pay for three months over summer because of an industrial dispute that will eventually claim his job.
"They don't deserve to be thinking about 'why did Daddy's company steal Christmas away from them?'" says Mr Wood, 37, a father of four. "I've had to cancel holidays. Christmas definitely isn't going to be what it was planned to be."
The Coles Smeaton Grange distribution centre on Sydney's southern fringe will be closed around 2023 and replaced by a high-tech automated warehouse with robots performing most of the work now done by humans.
It is part of a wave of automation sweeping the warehousing sector and the relatively well-paid, highly unionised blue collar jobs it offered in some of the "sheds" that dot industrial suburbs as the retail sector grapples with the challenge of online shopping.
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China's deal with PNG will deplete fishing stock and pose border risk
By Anthony Bergin and Jeffrey Wall
December 23, 2020 — 3.30pm
China is increasing its efforts to undermine our influence in Papua New Guinea. PNG signed a Belt and Road Initiative agreement with China two years ago. It’s now the scene of intense Chinese activity. In a geostrategic move last month, China signed a memorandum of understanding with PNG’s fisheries minister and the governor of Western Province to build a $200 million "comprehensive multi-functional fishery industrial park" on Daru Island.
It's a development designed to throw Australia off balance in a sensitive location: the town of Daru is the closest PNG community to Australia and only 200 kilometres from the Australian mainland. It’s very close to the islands of the Torres Strait within our northern border. Daru is a designated PNG port of entry and the entrance to Western Province. But there’s no real PNG assets to monitor the area, especially Indonesian fishers coming across for illegal trade in beche-de-mer.
PNG's patrol boats can't patrol in the southern border area between the Indonesian border and Daru because the waters are poorly charted and shallow. Compared to the Australian border, the PNG-Indonesia border in the area is relatively porous.
In June, China signed an agreement with PNG for substantial volumes of PNG seafood to be exported directly to China. The new fishing memorandum of understanding with China's Fujian Zhonghong Fishery Company was sponsored by the Chinese government. It was announced by China's Ministry of Commerce, supported by Beijing's powerful ambassador in Port Moresby, Xue Bing. He declared that the investment “will definitely enhance PNG's ability to comprehensively develop and utilise its own fishery resources”.
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Six potential investment surprises of 2021
If 2020 is any guide, the year ahead should be full of unexpected twists for investors. Here’s what might surprise.
RBA
What if the RBA were to drop its commitment to holding rates at current low levels?
Every month the Reserve Bank of Australia tells us that it plans to hold rates at current super low levels for the next three years: But the rebound in the local economy is stronger than almost anyone expected. Economists are already concerned over whether central banks have been too quick to splash cash during the crisis: Or, as economists might put it ‘calibrating the withdrawal of stimulus’ in the months ahead could be very difficult.
Next year even a gentle acceleration of the economic activity we witnessed in the final quarter this year would make the RBA’s three year promise even more of a stretch than it is today: Don’t be surprised if our central bank ‘changes the language’ around keeping rates at current levels in 2021.
Vaccine makers fail to fix the problem
What if the current crop of Covid vaccines are tested by new strains of the virus - or delivery programs are dogged by fights over who gets a jab first - or significant elements of the population refuse to be vaccinated?
Any failures or disappointments around the expected success of the global Covid vaccination effort will weigh heavily on investor confidence. Success around a global vaccine rollout is already built into asset prices, but we have yet to see if the global vaccine makers can pull off the great public health challenge of our times.
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Back in black: wealth makes a 'remarkable' turnaround in 2020
James Fernyhough Reporter
Dec 24, 2020 – 2.37pm
The wealth of typical Australian savers is in surprisingly robust shape after a traumatic year for their personal and financial health – provided they did not panic and convert savings to cash in the depths of the market sell-off.
The average superannuation fund is on track to end 2020 up 3.2 per cent, more than making up for eyewatering losses in February and March, figures from research house Rainmaker show.
Residential real estate prices have risen 1.8 per cent in aggregate from the start of the year, led by Adelaide with a 5.6 per cent increase, CoreLogic figures to the first three weeks of December show. Melbourne – worst hit by COVID-19 – lags the pack with a 1.7 per cent decline.
With the share market also set for a modest rise, the three pillars of Australian savings are all set to end the year in the black – just.
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For corrosive inequality, look to the upper middle class
The notion that rich people are fairly compensated for creating huge amounts of economic value seems to have largely collapsed.
Noah Smith
Dec 25, 2020 – 8.08am
The US seems to finally have decided that inequality is a problem.
The reassurance that a rising tide would lift all boats rings hollow after a series of recessions left so many stuck in the mud. Economists are realising that allowing greater inequality often doesn't boost growth.
And the moral case for inequality - the notion that rich people are fairly compensated for creating huge amounts of economic value - also seems to have largely collapsed. Even some Republicans are now talking about the problem.
But the difficult and interrelated questions of why inequality has increased, and what to do about it, remain largely unanswered. The loudest voices on the issue tend to emphasise the upper tail of the distribution - the vast fortunes of Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg or Elon Musk.
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A year like no other: the horror and courage of Australia in 2020
A bushfire calamity, the pandemic and China's undeclared economic war - these are the lessons we learned from an unprecedented year.
Andrew Clark Senior writer
Dec 23, 2020 – 7.47am
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian recalls that at March’s final COAG meeting “I was the only leader who didn’t shake hands or hug. We were on edge. There was a bit of trepidation.”
Around the time there were echoes of the “Beware the Ides of March” warning of the soothsayer to Julius Caesar in Shakespeare’s play of the same name. The words came true in the Roman leader’s gory death on March 15, and 2065 years later the date marks not just the end of COAG but the death of the old Australia and emergence of a ravaged nation exposed as never before.
Australia was in shock from a bushfire season that incinerated much of the country’s natural bounty and boundless optimism. It was also experiencing the local spread of the deadly coronavirus, and the first premonitions of China’s undeclared economic war.
More than in 1941-42, when Japan threatened Australia, or the onset of the Great Depression in 1929, the country is exposed.
The two book-ends of the year were the searing flames, destruction, death and mass rescue of holidaymakers, and the return of lockdown, border closures and intensive testing and contact tracing amid the latest outbreak of the pandemic in the affluent northern beaches area of Sydney, just days before Christmas.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/seven-investment-lessons-from-a-year-to-forget-20201226-p56q6o
Seven investment lessons from a year to forget
Tom Stevenson
Dec 26, 2020 – 9.28am
When we look back on the investment scorecard for 2020, it will tell us little about this extraordinary year.
With a few trading days left, 12 months of economic chaos and unprecedented restrictions look set to bring an unremarkable overall result.
This has been one of those years when the headline numbers don't tell the whole story.
It resembles 2003, when we pulled out of the dotcom bust; 2009, when the recovery from the financial crisis began; and even 1987, when the global stock market posted a 14 per cent gain overall that disguised a much more interesting journey along the way.
As with all three of those, we are unlikely to forget 2020. A year to remember, certainly. Also, a year in which to learn, or remember, some key investment lessons. Here are seven that have jumped out at me.
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Signs of hope and wonder in a year of plague and fires
Julia Baird
Journalist, broadcaster, historian and author
December 26, 2020 — 12.04am
Even my gingerbread house failed this year; after laying fairly solid foundations, the roof crumbled in our hands just as we were sticking musk sticks and mints on it. Our error was obviously impatience – not having left enough time for the royal icing to dry on a muggy day. My boy and I yelled in frustration, but when I said: “We were so close!” he responded: “Mum, denial is the first stage of grief.”
True. But it seemed apt in a year of plagues and fires that crumbled hopes and health and houses. We’re all a bit discombobulated, drained, uneasy this Christmas, especially in Sydney. So much so that I have felt compelled to gather up some of the astonishing things that happened this year, some signs of hope and wonder in our natural world, things that could well have escaped us.
(And a quick word to those who wrote to me this year: thank you, I read every word and am still endeavouring to respond to each of you. I was fascinated by the fact that the one common theme you wrote about was the rediscovery of wonder around you, all of us, even and especially during a time of lockdown, anxiety and limitation. And the reminder of the surprising reservoirs of strength contained for us in nature, things to puzzle over, delight in, marvel at and respect. The more we are reminded of this, surely, the more we will try to act to preserve the swathes of the planet under severe, increasing climate stress.)
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Does the pandemic mean the end of Big Australia?
COVID-19 is an asteroid strike on Australia’s rampant population growth and a moment of truth for the nation’s business model.
The closing of the border to tourists and foreign students, and the flight of temporary visa holders to home countries will lead to the first migration outflows since the end of World War II.
Net overseas migration has been the main driver of population for two decades, having run at an annual average of more than 200,000 for the past decade. The net loss this financial year is forecast to be 72,000, followed by a 22,000 deficit in 2021-22.
With falling fertility, our population will grow by a mere 0.2 per cent, the slowest rate in more than 100 years. The economy will be permanently smaller. Inner areas of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, magnets for students and working holiday-makers, will be depopulated. Australia will age a little faster.
In recent years, that combustible “P” in the trio of economic engines – the others being participation and productivity – has been the rocket fuel for gross domestic product.
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Coronavirus And Impacts.
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Mandatory masks, rapid testing needed in Sydney
Tom Burton Government editor
Dec 18, 2020 – 6.04pm
Masks, aggressive tracing to isolate the contacts of close contacts and rapid testing of essential workers leaving Sydney’s northern beaches, will be the most effective means of controlling the coronavirus outbreak, according to epidemiological experts.
NSW authorities have attempted to keep restrictions to the immediate geographical area of the outbreak in line with the national cabinet policy of defining hotspots, rather than cities or even states.
The isolated nature of the northern beaches, sometimes referred to as the "insular peninsula" means there are only three major access roads.
But the Victorian experience of trying to carve out part of a metropolitan area was that the movement of essential workers and transport of supplies make it difficult to effectively ring fence urban areas.
“This didn’t work in Melbourne – largely because the community transmission was already quite established and extended beyond those high risk suburbs,” Deakin University Epidemiology Professor Catherine Bennett said.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/scientists-alarmed-at-spread-of-covid-mutant-20201221-p56p62
Scientists alarmed at spread of COVID mutant
Clive Cookson
Dec 21, 2020 – 9.26am
London | The highly infectious variant of coronavirus that has emerged in south-east England is spreading rapidly to the rest of the UK and is already present elsewhere in the world, scientists warned on Sunday.
The World Health Organisation said its Evolution Working Group is working closely with the UK medical authorities to understand how the variant, now called B.1.1.7, is likely to affect the course of the pandemic. It has been detected in the Netherlands, Denmark and Australia.
Scientists say two aspects of B.1.1.7 give cause for concern. One is the unprecedented number of mutations it carries. The other is the speed with which it is supplanting other strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in south-east England.
Jeffrey Barrett, director of the COVID Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said 23 letters in the viral genetic code had changed, of which 17 might affect the behaviour of the virus — in particular helping it to enter and propagate within human cells.
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$8 trillion and counting: the costs of the fiscal war against COVID
By Roger Bootle
December 21, 2020 — 11.21am
We all know that the economic consequences of the pandemic have been enormous. On a comparatively optimistic view of the effectiveness of the rollout of vaccines, the OECD puts the total global cost over two years at $US6 trillion ($8 trillion) - amounting to about 7 per cent of global GDP.
If policy had been better, could this loss have been reduced?
Naturally, there is a lively debate about the polices employed to counter the virus via lockdowns and other restrictions. It is legitimate to ask whether the virus could have been contained at lower economic cost, but my concern here is different. Given the policies adopted by governments to contain the virus, could the macroeconomic policy response have been more effective?
The extent of policy action across the world has been astounding. Interest rates have been slashed to zero or below more or less everywhere, and central banks have massively expanded their balance sheets by buying bonds. But the main focus has quite rightly been fiscal. Including loans and guarantees, fiscal support packages have amounted to about 12 per cent of global GDP. This compares with roughly 2 per cent in 2009 following the global financial crisis.
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Why Sydney is facing a super-spreading disaster
Raina MacIntyre
Head of the Biosecurity Research Program at the Kirby Institute, UNSW Medicine.
December 20, 2020 — 2.24pm
Four days before Christmas, Sydney faces an outbreak of SARS-COV-2. Half of all such infections are asymptomatic, rendering infected people invisible.
Epidemics, unchecked, grow exponentially.
Forty new cases today may become 120 new cases by Christmas Day. Half of them will have no symptoms and the rest will have mild symptoms so will carry on as normal. The peak infectiousness of this virus is very early in the infection, before symptoms appear, making Christmas Day a ticking time bomb.
People infected today and tomorrow may travel half-way across Sydney for the family Christmas lunch and maybe to another household for dinner, possibly infecting a minimum of 360 new people. The 360 people infected on Christmas Day will be at their peak infectiousness on New Year’s Eve, and could infect more than 1000 others. We could be looking at 3000 cases by January 8. You could not plan a disaster more perfectly if you tried.
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Ventilation blamed for COVID spread, as design problems are detected
By Aisha Dow
December 21, 2020 — 12.01am
Investigators at Melbourne hospitals have found it is common for air in rooms of sick patients to be funnelled into busy corridors, with poor ventilation and airflow issues the likely cause of coronavirus cases during Victoria's second wave.
Multiple teams of engineers have spent months analysing the airflow in medical wards and treatment rooms after nurses and other health workers began to catch the virus in their hundreds.
Tests that used smoke to measure where air was travelling detected air from patients’ rooms circulating at nurses' stations.
Ongoing University of Melbourne tests of the airflow in wards at the Royal Melbourne, Footscray and Sunshine hospitals found it is “ubiquitous” to have air travelling from hospital rooms out to busy corridors, in all but a limited number of dedicated negative-pressure rooms.
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Long-awaited Victorian hotel quarantine inquiry report released, Andrews apologises
Daniel Andrews has apologised for the failings of the state’s first hotel quarantine program, saying there will be people “missing from the Christmas table on Friday” as a result of the disastrous scheme.
Speaking publicly on the report’s findings since they were released on Monday morning the Victorian Premier offered his government’s sympathies and condolences to everyone affected by the deadly coronavirus second wave – triggered by hotel quarantine.
“I want to apologise to the Victorian community for the very clear errors that were made in this program. I think that the way in which the program was established, it had to be done quickly,” Mr Andrews told reporters on Monday.
“To those who lost a loved one in the first wave and those who lost a loved one in the second, all we can do is offer our support, our sincere apology, our sorrow at their loss.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/time-to-plug-the-gaps-in-our-covid-19-testing-20201221-p56pb2.html
Time to plug the gaps in our COVID-19 testing
By Mary Louise McLaws, Ian Norton, T.G. Henning Liljeqvist, Bill Anseline and Dean Whiting
December 21, 2020 — 8.00pm
Outbreak management of highly transmissible diseases such as COVID-19 requires multiple layers of defence. The rationale for this approach is to ensure that each layer of defence catches some transmission events, even if one layer fails to prevent an occurrence, ultimately minimising the possibility of seeding into the wider community.
When the risk of spread is persistent but low, a mitigation approach can include physical distancing, mask use in public transport and indoor shopping spaces and hand hygiene. But for those high-risk areas – such as return travellers and quarantine hotels – highly precautionary, multiple layers of defences should be used. Receiving return travellers and flight crew requires not only continuous basic prevention strategies but multiple layers for prevention, each designed to capture leaked infections.
Our first layer of prevention includes removing travellers from the community and testing for COVID-19 on day two of quarantine; with a turnaround time of 24-48 hours for the result. So, the weakness in this single layer is the risk to the employees and security staff at the quarantine hotels.
Approximately half of all COVID-19 infected persons become infectious before they develop symptoms, from day three after becoming infected. The problem being, staff not tested at intervals of less than three days may return home infectious.
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Markets' topsy-turvy year ends with new threat to economic recovery
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
December 22, 2020 — 11.34am
A difficult year is not ending well for investors, with the emergence of a mutant strain of the COVID-19 virus overshadowing what might otherwise have been regarded as positive news for economies and markets.
The new variant of the virus in the UK, Europe and elsewhere triggered sharp sell-offs in markets in Europe, with the Stoxx index down 2.3 per cent and the FTSE 100 falling 1.73 per cent.
The US market was initially down 2 per cent before recovering to end 0.4 per cent lower for the day, sliding from Friday’s record levels.
The VIX index, which measures volatility and is regarded as a barometer of fear in markets, spiked from 21.7 to 28.73 before sliding to 25.16, still well above its long term average of about 17.
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Report into St Basil's and Epping Gardens COVID-19 outbreaks highlights failures
By Clay Lucas and Rachel Clun
December 21, 2020 — 7.21pm
Two nursing homes at the centre of Melbourne's deadly COVID-19 outbreak were inadequately prepared for emergencies and had insufficient infection prevention and control procedures, and the surge workforce sent in to help had not worked in aged care before and was "unsure what to do".
An independent review of the outbreaks at St Basil’s Homes for the Aged and Heritage Care’s Epping Gardens, conducted by Professor Lyn Gilbert and Adjunct Professor Alan Lilly, found the homes had deteriorated to a shocking state during the crisis.
"I've never seen anything as appalling as this in Australia in terms of healthcare provided to Australians," Luis Prado, the chief medical officer of Epworth Hospital, told the review. During the outbreak Dr Prado had visited St Basil's in Fawkner, where 45 people died.
The review also found that a St Basil's manager told replacement staff after the permanent staff had been stood down and the home taken over by the state government that "she was not to be contacted ... and that, since they had been stood down, neither she nor St Basil’s staff were to have any ongoing involvement".
The outbreaks at St Basil’s and Epping Gardens, where 38 people died, were among the largest during Victoria's second wave.
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A Pandemic of Misinformation
· The Wall Street Journal
America has been paralysed by death and fear for nearly a year, and the politicisation of the pandemic has made things worse by adding misinformation and vitriol to the mix. With vaccines finally being administered, we should be entering a joyous phase. Instead we endure still more inflammatory rhetoric and media distortion.
Americans need to understand three realities. First, all 50 states independently directed and implemented their own pandemic policies. In every case, governors and local officials were responsible for on-the-ground choices — every business limit, school closing, shelter-in-place order and mask requirement. No policy on any of these issues was set by the federal government, except those involving federal property and employees.
Second, nearly all states used the same draconian policies that people now insist on hardening, even though the number of positive cases increased while people’s movements were constrained, business activities were strictly limited, and schools were closed. Governors in all but a few states — Florida and South Dakota are notable exceptions — imposed curfews, quarantines, directives on group gatherings, and mask mandates.
Mobility tracking verifies that people restricted their movement. Gallup and YouGov data show that 80% to 90% of Americans have been wearing masks since early August. Lockdown policies had baleful effects on local economies, families and children, and the virus spread anyway. If one advocates more lockdowns because of bad outcomes so far, why don’t the results of those lockdowns matter?
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Why rapid antigen tests have been slow to take off
Jill Margo Health editor
Dec 22, 2020 – 5.10pm
Calls are growing for Australia to follow the US and use rapid antigen tests to help control the pandemic, but local authorities are still testing the test.
They say while the principle of rapid antigen testing is sound, they are not as sensitive as the gold-standard swab tests and are slow in high-volume situations.
When used at home or in a workplace, authorities worry the tests have the potential to disrupt the public health notification system.
Dominic Dwyer says the popular assertion that rapid antigen tests are entirely reliable when they produce a negative result is wrong.
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Financial scams surged during the pandemic
Aleks Vickovich Wealth editor
Dec 23, 2020 – 10.13am
Scams, misinformation and aggressive marketing of risky financial products proliferated during the pandemic, adding to a climate of "extreme volatility" for investors, an international taskforce has found.
The International Organisation of Securities Commissions says a notable surge in new retail investors participating in markets for the first time also sparked an influx of new corporate criminals and scammers.
"What is clear as the pandemic continues to unfold is that there are challenges for retail investors in navigating volatile markets amidst rapidly changing information (or misinformation), and possibly limited resources or accessibility to suitable financial advice, particularly where excessive risk-taking or hardship issues are involved," says the report released on Wednesday.
"Common types of harmful behaviour during stress times include mis-selling, mis-labelling and misleading disclosure, and other such investment advice."
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https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/sydney-s-christmas-gamble-20201223-p56pw6
Sydney's Christmas gamble
Rohan Sullivan Journalist
Dec 23, 2020 – 6.30pm
Gladys Berejiklian says she’s gone to the outer limits of what she can do to make Christmas in Sydney as normal as possible during its coronavirus outbreak. And it's complicated.
In most of the city, each home can have 10 people, although children under 12 don’t count. Except in the southern part of the northern beaches hotspot, where kids are included in the 10-person limit.
The northern zone of the northern beaches remains locked down, although five visitors are allowed in each house if they are also from the north. No outsiders are allowed in.
Residents of the southern bit are not allowed out, but visitors from the rest of the city are allowed in. All this applies on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day, then things go back to how they are now. Which is a different set of restrictions.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/mutant-strain-triggers-harsher-uk-lockdown-20201224-p56pxj
Mutant strain triggers harsher UK lockdown
Alex Morales and David Goodman
Dec 24, 2020 – 7.23am
Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed tougher regulations across a swath of England in an effort to stamp down on the mutant strain of coronavirus that's spreading quickly across the country.
Sussex, Oxfordshire, Suffolk, Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, most of Hampshire and the remainder of Essex will now face the strictest rules in the government's 4-tier system, from 1 am on December 26, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Wednesday in a press conference.
More infectious strain of coronavirus detected in UK.
They join London and southeast England, meaning non-essential shops will have to close and socialising is further curtailed.
The new variant "is spreading at a dangerous rate," said Hancock, putting the rise in cases in the past week at 57 per cent. "The direction is clear and in many cases quite stark."
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Restrictions tightened as another mutated COVID-19 variant is found in UK
By Latika Bourke
December 24, 2020 — 4.44am
London: Two cases of another new and potentially even more contagious variant of coronavirus first found in South Africa have been identified in the UK, as millions more people in England were told they would be placed under tougher restrictions from Boxing Day.
South Africa's health department said last week that a new genetic mutation of the virus had been discovered and might be responsible for a recent surge in infections there.
Britain's Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the new strain was "highly concerning" as the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 in the UK was nearing the peak from April.
"Thanks to the impressive genomic capability of the South Africans, we've detected two cases of another new variant of coronavirus here in the UK," Hancock told a news conference at Number 10 on Wednesday, local time.
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New coronavirus strain splits scientists as UK and others act to curb spread
· The Wall Street Journal
Scientists around the world are racing to assess the dangers posed by a new variant of the coronavirus that has spread rapidly in Britain, as more countries shut their borders to travellers from the UK in an effort to keep it out.
Epidemiologists and virologists advising the British government say initial evidence indicates the new strain is more contagious than older variants, but that so far there are no signs that it causes more severe disease.
Transmissibility — how easily the virus spreads from one person to another — and the seriousness of the illness it causes are both important metrics for gauging the potential threat. And scientists say there is still much they don’t know.
Viruses mutate naturally, particularly RNA viruses like the new coronavirus. Many variants of the new coronavirus have surfaced since it raced around the world.
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Vaccine fiasco may be the biggest failure in EU history
If EU elites don't yet realise that this is going to mushroom into one of the biggest failures in the history of the European Project, they will find out soon enough.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Dec 24, 2020 – 11.45am
The EU's politicisation of COVID-19 vaccines is turning into an economic and political black swan event.
There will be a price to pay as the consequences of this profound failure unfold in 2021, and an even higher price as people start to understand why it happened.
Europe's double-dip recession will be stretched out for another quarter. Recovery will be delayed until the second half of the year.
Thousands more companies will be pushed over the brink, threatening a cascade of defaults and raising the risk of a banking crisis.
Labour scarring will run deeper. Public debt ratios across the Club Med bloc will move closer to the point of no return.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/new-hope-for-mystery-covid-19-cases-20201224-p56pz2
New hope for mystery COVID-19 cases
Jill Margo Health editor
Dec 24, 2020 – 11.55am
Australia has shot ahead of the world and created a testing measure that has the potential to detect mystery COVID-19 cases that often slip through the net.
It has created a reference standard that detects very low amounts of virus and provides greater confidence for uniformity of testing and for identifying infected people who previously may have been regarded as negative.
The National Measurement Institute (NMI) developed this standard over eight months, using state-of-the-art techniques.
It will provide Australian test kit manufacturers and testing laboratories with a reliable foundation for establishing the accuracy of their coronavirus tests.
While the NMI will provide enough of the liquid medium for use in local measuring instruments, there may be international demand for it too.
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Scott Morrison should act as international students stay away, says ANU chief
By Lisa Visentin
December 25, 2020 — 6.24pm
One of Australia's most senior university chiefs has urged Prime Minister Scott Morrison to send a clear, welcoming message to international students about when they can return to Australia, as universities reveal that their enrolments have been significantly damaged by the ongoing uncertainty around travel and quarantine.
Australian National University vice-chancellor Brian Schmidt said that despite its successes in battling COVID-19, Australia was in danger of losing market share in the lucrative sector to other countries such as the UK and Canada.
International students would not be back on campus in March, he conceded, but he said Mr Morrison could send a positive message about Australia without undermining his directive that getting stranded Australians home was his priority.
"Unfortunately I don't think there's any prospect at this point of having very many students back at the beginning of first semester. It's just not on the cards," said Professor Schmidt, who is also a Nobel prize winner in physics. Semester two or even 2022 was more realistic.
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More working from home will transport us back to the future
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
December 26, 2020 — 12.00am
If there’s one good thing to come from this horrible year, surely it’s the breakthrough on WFH – working from home. This wonderful new idea – made possible only by the wonders of the internet – may have come by force, but for many of us it may be here to stay.
If so, it will require a lot of changes around the place, and not just in the attitudes and practices of bosses and workers. With a marked decline in commuting – surely the greatest benefit from the revolution – transport planning authorities will have to rethink their plans for more expressways and metro transport systems.
If we’re talking about fewer people coming into the central business district and more staying at home in the suburbs, over time this will mean a big shift in the relative prices of real estate. For both businesses and families, CBD land prices and rents will decline relative to prices and rents in the suburbs.
In big cities like Melbourne and Sydney, as so many jobs have moved from the suburbs to office towers in the CBD and nearby areas, the dominant trend in real estate has gone from position, position, position to proximity, proximity, proximity. Everyone would prefer to live closer to the centre.
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Lessons from a lost year of Covid-19 will stand us well
With the pandemic still inhibiting daily life and generating almost unimaginable public spending, even from governments of the centre-right, this is a dispiriting time for those wanting government that’s smaller, tax that’s lower and freedom that’s greater. Yet even in the face of a pandemic, it remains a fact that government can’t spend a dollar that it doesn’t raise today or won’t pay back tomorrow. And once the fear of disease has passed, people’s instinct for freedom will reassert itself.
Scott Morrison was right when he said at the start of the pandemic that 2020 could be the worst year of our lives. The challenge is to make sure that it’s just one bad year; and not the start of a dismal decade or a lost generation. That means trying to learn from this experience rather than entrenching what’s unsustainable.
As Health Minister in the Howard government from 2003 to 2007, I massively upgraded the National Medicine Stockpile, including all-but-cornering the world market for antiviral drugs, in anticipation of a possible bird flu pandemic. Back then, the National Pandemic Plan included early international border closures, special isolation facilities, mobile testing and treatment, and ramped up ICUs. It never included, even in its August 2019 iteration, advice to close state borders, shut workplaces and cancel mass gatherings in a moderate pandemic. Its “ethical framework” included “ensuring that the rights of the individual are upheld as much as possible” and “that measures taken are proportional to the threat”.
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‘Don’t rush coronavirus vaccine’ because of new strains, northern beaches outbreak, says expert
An architect of Australia’s COVID-19 response has rejected calls for the vaccine rollout to be accelerated, despite the emergence of more contagious mutant virus strains in Britain and South Africa and the spread interstate of the outbreak centred on Sydney’s northern beaches.
Jodie McVernon — director of epidemiology at Melbourne’s Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity and an expert member of the council of chief health officers that delivers high-level scientific advice to Scott Morrison and the premiers — said there was no need “to press the red emergency button” and bring forward distribution of the jab from March.
Her position is at odds with Anthony Albanese who on Wednesday urged the Prime Minister to make the vaccine available as soon as January, when some or all of the three overseas formulations ordered by the government are expected to be approved.
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'Gold standard': How NSW Health tested 300,000 people for COVID-19 in just six days
By Michael Koziol
December 27, 2020 — 12.00am
It was 4.30am on Thursday, December 17 when Susan Pearce's phone started ringing. The call to NSW Health's 2IC came from a co-ordinator at a new pop-up testing clinic at Avalon Recreation Centre on Sydney's northern beaches.
The sun had not yet risen but people were already lining up to get tested for COVID-19. "They were calm and collected," Ms Pearce says of the person on the other end of the phone. "They just needed more staff. They knew they were going to need more staff for the day shift."
Ms Pearce, who is NSW Health's deputy secretary and the state health emergency operations centre controller, wasted no time getting more nurses to Avalon and myriad other testing sites that sprung up on the beaches. That Thursday, as the outbreak began, there were 7500 COVID-19 tests conducted in NSW. One week later, on Christmas Eve, there were 70,000.
NSW Health has been lauded for its gold standard contact tracing, with skilled virus "detectives" charting the disease's path from person to person and providing incredibly detailed alerts about which venues have been affected and when.
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Climate Change
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This year wasn't unprecedented. If anything, it set the precedent
Waleed Aly
Columnist, co-host of Ten's The Project and academic
December 25, 2020 — 3.40pm
Last month, The Guardian asked its readers to nominate a single word to describe how they felt about 2020. This week, the poll results came in, with a resounding word of the year: “shit”. Several of the runners-up are even less printable, and could broadly be considered synonyms, leaving no doubt as to the general sentiment on display.
But one popular exception to this trend would also be my nomination for the most overused word this year: “unprecedented”. It began for us in Australia with the bushfires, back when we had no idea just how far we were going to be taken beyond anything we’d experienced in our lives. Then it went, well, viral.
But while it makes perfect sense we’d commence 2020 using that word, it would be a shame if we ended with it. “Unprecedented” is about to become a misleading word if it hasn’t already. On its own, it makes this year sound like some freak occurrence; an exception to every rule that governs normal life; something out of the box with nothing to foreshadow it and no likelihood of being repeated.
That impression, if we have it, is wrong on just about every count. The scariest, most demoralising thing about this most awful of years is that if you listen to those who know it best, it was eminently predictable, and is quite likely to be repeated.
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Australia's image takes hit after bushfires over lack of climate action
By Mike Foley
December 26, 2020 — 11.30pm
Australia's reputation took a significant hit with its main trading partners after the Black Summer fires owing in part to perceptions of climate policy, an Austrade survey reveals.
"The belief that the fires were still burning (at the time of the survey in February) and perceived ineffective disaster management practices and inaction on climate change were also contributing to negative perceptions of Australia," Austrade's Global Sentiment Monitor report found.
Austrade, Australia’s trade and investment promotion agency, said the biggest reputational impacts came in south-east Asia, with 31 per cent of people surveyed in China forming a worse perception of Australia due to the fires; the survey results were 27 per cent for South Korea, 20 per cent for Japan and 15 per cent for Indonesia.
In the US the bushfires spurred a worse perception among 13 per cent of people, and 18 per cent in Britain.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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No entries in this section this week.
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National Budget Issues.
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Year of wonders: Coronacession not as bad as feared
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
December 20, 2020 — 3.09pm
This year has been one steep learning curve for the nation’s medicos, economists and politicians. And you can bet there’ll be more “learnings” to learn in 2021.
Just as the epidemiologists learnt that the virus they assumed in their initial worst-case modelling of the effects of the pandemic wasn’t the virus we got, economists have learnt as they continually revised down their dire forecasts of the economic damage the pandemic and its lockdown would cause.
It reminds me of the “anchor and adjust” heuristic – mental shortcut – that behavioural economists have borrowed from the psychologists. Not only do humans not know what the future holds, they’re surprisingly bad at estimating the size of things.
The bounce-back in the economy has been much better than first thought.Credit:AP
They frequently estimate the absolute size of something by thinking of something else of known size – the anchor – and then asking themselves by how much the unknown thing is likely to be bigger or smaller than that known thing.
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Infrastructure binge to dig country out of recession
By Shane Wright
December 22, 2020 — 12.01am
Governments across the country will inject an extra $46 billion into the economy through roads, school upgrades and social housing to help drag the economy out of the coronavirus pandemic over the next four years.
Analysis compiled by Infrastructure Partnerships Australia shows the response by federal, state and territory governments will be worth almost $17 billion extra in spending on infrastructure in the current financial year before stepping up even further in 2021-22.
All governments have lifted infrastructure spending plans in the wake of the global pandemic, aided by a collapse in borrowing costs that have made some marginal projects viable for the first time.
Pre-pandemic $53.3 billion was expected to be spent on infrastructure in the 2020-21 financial year, but this has grown to $66.9 billion with the biggest individual spend by NSW.
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Analysts tip hot year ahead for investors
Undeterred by upsets in 2020, sharemarket forecasters are back with “market outlooks” suggesting 2021 will be exceptionally good for investors with new records being set as the world enjoys the best economic growth for 50 years.
Many top analysts are suggesting we are on course to see total returns of 10 per cent or more in the ASX in the year ahead.
Better still, forecasts suggest that Australian shares will be among the very best investment choices worldwide in 2021 with the S&P/ASX 200 due to hit new record highs.
Veteran analyst David Cassidy, head of investment strategy at Wilsons, joined the party this week adding his considerable reputation to a growing consensus investors could be in for a bumper year with risks, as they like to put, firmly on the “upside”.
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China's own goal on Australian coal ban gives traders a massive free kick
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
December 23, 2020 — 12.21pm
Coal is a globally traded commodity, as China appears to be discovering, along with an unpleasant insight into the nimbleness and creativity of participants in the global markets.
China’s ban on Australian coal is having a more visible effect on China than it is on the Australian coal exporters.
The street lights and billboards are being turned off in its major cities; factories are being shut down or forced into reduced shifts; office lighting and lifts have had their power cut off; consumers have been told not to use electric stoves and to turn off their heating until the temperature falls below three degrees Celsius.
The ban on Australian coal has coincided with a rapid uptick in China’s economy as it emerges from the pandemic and with particularly cold weather, which would normally result in a surge in demand for energy coal and in coal prices.
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Solvency crisis is still to come
All around the world, central bankers and regulators have been congratulating themselves over the financial system’s resilience in the face of the most severe economic contraction since the Great Depression.
However, they know in their hearts that the battle against COVID-19 has only been half-won.
As Reserve Bank head of financial stability Jonathan Kearns said earlier this month, the liquidity aspect of the crisis is about to give way to a solvency phase as the reckoning arrives for households and businesses unable to repay their loans.
The scale can’t be estimated with any precision, although at the peak, 10 per cent of housing loans and 17 per cent of small business loans – worth a grand total of $260bn – had deferred repayments.
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Health Issues.
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Private health insurance: families hit with $127 a year premium lift
Most Australians will pay at least an extra 3.2 per cent for private health insurance after Health Minister Greg Hunt waved through the sector’s annual premium hike.
Mr Hunt said the change was the lowest in 20 years, equating to 2.74 per cent on average across all insurers or an extra $127 a year for families. But the figure is different among those insured with Medibank and Bupa, which together control about 51 per cent of the market.
Premiums at Medibank will rise 3.25 per cent on average, while Bupa’s will increase 3.21 per cent. This compares with anaemic inflation, which is at 0.7 per cent, after COVID-19 plunged the country into one of its deepest recessions.
Still, the price hikes at Medibank and Bupa have come in less than former mutual company, now ASX-listed health fund NIB, which received approval to jack up premiums 4.36 per cent.
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Covid consequences to linger with thousands skipping critical health screening appointments
Health experts fear the consequences of COVID-19 will linger long after the pandemic passes, with the virus spooking tens of thousands of Australians into cancelling essential appointments and check-ups for serious illness.
Diagnostic and pathology services are still trying to catch up on missed appointments — more than six months after the pandemic forced the shutdown of screening services. Health experts are now concerned that early and treatable cancer diagnoses have been skipped, potentially leading to preventable deaths and greater costs on the health system.
Data released from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare shows that there were about 145,000 fewer mammograms performed through BreastScreen Australia from January to June, compared with the previous corresponding period.
In the three months to September the backlog started to clear, with about 12,000 more mammograms performed compared with the same time in 2019.
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International Issues.
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White House aides prepare to move on as Trump vows to keep fighting
The behind-the-scenes preparations underscore the reality that while Donald Trump may continue to tilt at windmills, his tenure as the President of the United States is ending.
Josh Dawsey, Carol D. Leonnig and David A. Fahrenthold
Dec 20, 2020 – 1.59pm
Vice-President Mike Pence has begun looking for a new home in the Washington suburbs, and he's planning a valedictory foreign trip to begin the day Congress counts the electoral college votes.
Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has discussed opening a consulting firm with other White House aides and allies.
Top economic adviser Larry Kudlow has told friends he is planning to return to broadcasting, and he has his next gigs lined up.
President Donald Trump remains defiant, refusing to publicly acknowledge that he lost on November 3. In a recent meeting with allies, he discussed deploying the military to rerun the election and appointing Sidney Powell as a special counsel on voter fraud.
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Can Biden lead the world with a hole in America's middle class?
With US heartlands hollowed out by globalisation, the Biden administration wants to restore their trust in America's global role. But there will be no easy return to the pre-Trump status quo.
James Curran Columnist
Dec 20, 2020 – 12.37pm
Since Joe Biden’s US election win, a wave of relief has washed over the foreign policy commentariat. The storyline appears set: with adults back in the room, Washington will relight multilateralism’s torch while displaying a surer touch on alliance management and strategic competition with China.
Biden’s own rhetoric has calmed nerves frazzled by four years of Donald Trump’s meandering idiosyncrasy. "America is back", he says, and "ready to lead the world".
A slew of appointments from the Obama presidency, as the Financial Times’ Ed Luce observes, implies "the resumption of business as usual", almost the return of an ancien regime.
But this is not the conversation we need to be having on American foreign policy. While aspects of Trump’s legacy will be reversed by the stroke of a pen, the real challenge remains rebuilding trust in the United States’ world role among the American middle class.
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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/us-congress-seals-us900b-relief-deal-20201221-p56p7i
US Congress seals $US900b relief deal
Andrew Taylor Senior Reporter
Dec 21, 2020 – 10.42am
Key Points
- The final agreement is the largest spending measure yet.
- It combines COVID-19 relief with a $1.4 trillion government-wide funding plan.
- It includes lots of other unrelated measures on taxes, health, infrastructure and education.
Washington | Top Capitol Hill negotiators sealed a deal Sunday on an almost $US1 trillion COVID-19 economic relief package, finally delivering long-overdue help to businesses and individuals and providing money to deliver vaccines to a nation eager for them.
The agreement, announced by Senate leaders, would establish a temporary $300 per week supplemental jobless benefits and $600 direct stimulus payments to most Americans, along with a new round of subsidies for hard-hit businesses and money for schools, health care providers and renters facing eviction.
The House was expected to vote on the legislation on Monday, said a spokeswoman for House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer.
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'Drastic measures': Trump 'considered imposing martial law'
By David Millward
December 21, 2020 — 11.55am
Washington: US President Donald Trump has reportedly discussed the possibility of imposing martial law to overturn the election with Michael Flynn, his former national security adviser.
According to The New York Times, the President asked Flynn to expand on the idea at a White House meeting on Friday (Saturday AEDT). The meeting was the latest surreal twist in Trump's relentless - and so far unsuccessful - attempt to reverse his defeat by Democrat Joe Biden.
Reports of the meeting were dismissed as "fake news" and "bad reporting" by Trump on Twitter.
Still refusing to accept that he lost, Trump has called for a massive rally in Washington on January 6, the day when both houses of Congress meet to formally confirm Joe Biden's election.
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A student debt jubilee could kick-start US economic recovery
Crushing student debt — the average four-year college graduate has $US30,000 of it — prevents young people from buying homes, cars and other consumer goods.
Rana Foroohar Contributor
Dec 21, 2020 – 11.27am
Millennials have overtaken Baby Boomers as America’s largest bloc, and they and those younger than them will comprise nearly as many voters as all older generations combined in G7 countries by the end of the decade.
But large swathes of younger Americans reject the country’s political system.
Research by the Centre for the Future of Democracy shows that a far lower percentage are supportive of democracy than Boomers, Gen X or, of course, the interwar generation. Perhaps that’s because they have so little economic stake in the system.
Millennials make up close to 25 per cent of the population but hold only about 3 per cent of US wealth. Boomers, who held 21 per cent of wealth at the same period in their lives, still control the vast majority.
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Here's what Trump's post-presidency looks like
Seldom has the leader of an American political party done so much to strike fear into the hearts of his allies but done so little to tackle challenges facing the country during his final days in office.
Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin
Dec 21, 2020 – 9.28am
It was among the most consequential weeks of President Donald Trump's tenure: Across the country, healthcare workers began receiving a lifesaving coronavirus vaccine.
On Capitol Hill, legislators neared a deal on economic relief aimed at averting a deeper recession. And on Friday, federal regulators authorised a second vaccine.
Yet Trump was largely absent from those events. It was Vice-President Mike Pence who held a call with governors on December 14 to hail a "medical miracle" and who received the Pfizer vaccine at week's end on live television. Legislative leaders were the ones working late into the nights on a stimulus deal.
All the while, Trump was conducting a Twitter-borne assault on Republicans for not helping him overturn the election results, even warning Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, to "get tougher, or you won't have a Republican Party anymore".
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/christmas-is-cancelled-for-boris-johnson-20201222-p56pgh
Christmas is cancelled for Boris Johnson
While the UK Prime Minister didn't cause the virus, he seems unable to project a sense of being in control of the response. It's never clear whether scientists, pollsters or his own rowdy backbenchers are guiding policy.
Therese Raphael
Dec 22, 2020 – 9.33am
Things couldn't feel less festive in Britain right now. There's a new - apparently homegrown - virus mutation, rising COVID case numbers, the cancellation of Christmas gatherings, and stalled Brexit talks. Now Europe has put the U.K. into isolation, closing borders because of worries about the new COVID strain.
It isn't just Christmas travellers who face disruption. Some 10,000 large trucks a day make the trip between France's Calais and Dover, the UK's biggest port for roll-on, roll-off ferries. The latter accounts for 17 per cent of British goods trade; £119 billion ($211 billion) of goods passed through the port in 2015. There's a risk of highways to Dover becoming car parks if the border remains shut.
France says it will try to put measures in place to get freight moving again, given that viruses aren't usually transmitted by truck. But the disruption provides an early taste of what awaits if Britain leaves the European Union without a trade deal on December 31.
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One dose of Trump may not be enough to inoculate sickly US
By Timothy J. Lynch
December 22, 2020 — 12.00am
Even with Joe Biden’s victory now ratified, there remains deep angst over the continuing presence of Donald Trump in American life. But to ask “When will Trump leave?” is the wrong question. The more historically informed question is: "Did we get enough of him?"
His physical leaving is all but certain. Whether he attends the inauguration or not, Trump will cease to be president as soon as Joe Biden is able to recite the oath of office, which he will begin at noon on January 20, 2021 (Washington DC time).
There is no constitutional mechanism, no legal appeal, no political process that can enable Trump to remain in office. He will be a former president from that moment.
The real issue is what his legacy may be. This is separate from the concern about the public role he will subsequently play. That, we can be pretty sure, will be loud and disruptive, a delight for his fans and a frustration for his critics. But as the oldest ever ex-president, his impact and energy will inevitably dissipate.
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Sweden plans military spending spree to counter Russia threat
· The Times
Sweden is making the biggest upgrade to its armed forces in more than half a century and debating whether to join NATO in response to a burst of Russian military activity around the Baltic, the north Atlantic and the Arctic Circle.
Troop numbers will rise from 60,000 to 90,000 over the next four years and annual defence spending will increase by 40 per cent to 80bn krona ($12.7bn) or about 1.5 per cent of GDP, under a budget passed by MPs last week.
The country’s long-held principle of non-alignment is also coming into question after a majority of parliamentarians voted for the first time in favour of considering NATO membership.
Sweden’s “total defence” bill warns in bleak terms of the growing danger to its national security. In recent months both NATO and Russia have conducted manoeuvres in the Baltic region on a scale unseen since the Cold War.
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No vaccine can end America's pandemic of ignorance and irrationality
The resistance to reason among roughly a third of the population poses a long-term danger to the country.
Max Boot
Dec 23, 2020 – 7.49am
Earlier this year, experts tried to dampen enthusiasm about a potential coronavirus vaccine by noting that the fastest development time for any previous vaccine had been four years for the mumps vaccine in the 1960s. Most vaccines take 10 to 15 years to create, and many infectious diseases have no vaccine at all.
So it is nothing short of astonishing that less than a year after the coronavirus pandemic began, two vaccines that are roughly 95 per cent effective have already been approved, with more in the pipeline. This breakthrough was made possible by employing messenger RNA to trigger an immune response, a technique that has never before been successfully utilised in a vaccine.
It is tempting to herald a new age of scientific progress in which pioneering technology opens up limitless possibilities - including the eradication of many diseases. But before we get too giddy, don't forget that alongside near-miraculous advances in science come near-unbelievable examples of human irrationality.
The America that helped develop coronavirus vaccines in record time is the same country where, in one recent poll, 36 per cent of all voters (and 77 per cent of Trump voters) say that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, even though there is zero evidence that any ballot fraud occurred.
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China claims to 'expel' US navy ship as tensions mount over sea
By Nicola Smith
December 23, 2020 — 10.06am
Taipei: China claimed on Tuesday its military had "expelled" a US destroyer after it "trespassed" into Chinese territorial waters close to the Spratly Islands, in an escalation of tensions between Washington and Beijing over the South China Sea.
The statement by Senior Colonel Tian Junli, spokesman for the People's Liberation Southern Command, came shortly after the US Navy announced the USS John S McCain had asserted its "navigational rights and freedoms" in the disputed seas near the islands, "consistent with international law".
The incident occurred as Shandong, China's second aircraft carrier, was reported to be conducting drills in the region after sailing through the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Sunday.
The Chinese government claims sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, directly disputing the territorial claims of its smaller regional neighbours. The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan have all laid claims to the Spratlys.
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China’s Shandong aircraft carrier group sails through Taiwan Strait
· The Times
China has sailed an aircraft carrier strike group through the Taiwan Strait for the first time this year as tensions between Beijing, the US and the independent island simmer.
The Shandong, the first aircraft carrier built in China, was closely monitored as it passed through the strategic waterway on Sunday. USS Mustin, a guided missile destroyer, went through the strait on Saturday, on the 12th American sailing in the waters this year.
Washington said that it was committed to “a free and open Indo-Pacific”.
Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory and has vowed to seize it by force if necessary.
President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan has scoffed at her Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping’s suggestion that Taiwan be brought back into a unified China under a “one country, two systems” framework.
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China’s ambitions will make 2021 the year of the wolf warrior at the door
If the tradition still holds, arriving on Scott Morrison’s desk this week will be a report setting out the intelligence community’s best guesses (they will call them “judgments”) as to big strategic developments that could go horribly wrong in 2021.
We will probably never see that report, so in its place here are my best judgments (you can call them “guesses”) as to the likely prospects for peace, conflict and the in-between stage now called the “grey zone”, where aggressors advance their interests covertly.
Here are a couple of take-to-the-bank strategic certainties for 2021: First, there will be no repair or reset to our China relationship because Xi Jinping’s Communist Party thinks it’s essential to “punish” Australia so other democracies don’t get the uppity idea that the party will treat them respectfully as equals.
Beijing is probably just beginning to work through the list of Australian exports to be banned or punished with tariffs. Don’t be surprised if the party starts to limit tourist and student visas ahead of any real resumption of travel.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/britain-and-the-eu-reach-a-landmark-deal-on-brexit-20201225-p56q3p
Britain and the EU reach a landmark deal on Brexit
Mark Landler and Stephen Castle
Dec 25, 2020 – 2.30am
London | Britain and the European Union struck a hard-fought trade agreement late on Thursday (Friday AEDT), settling a bitter divorce that stretched over more than four years and setting the terms for a post-Brexit future as close neighbours living apart.
The deal, which must be ratified by the British and European Parliaments, came together in Brussels after 11 months of grinding negotiations, culminating in a last-minute haggle over fishing rights that stretched into Christmas Eve, just a week before a year-end deadline.
Despite running to thousands of pages, the agreement leaves critical parts of the relationship to be worked out later. And it will not prevent some disruption to trade across the English Channel, since British exports will still be subjected to some border checks, adding costs for companies and causing potential delays at ports.
But it is nonetheless a landmark in the long-running Brexit drama — the bookend to Britain's departure from the European Union in January and a blueprint for how the two sides will coexist after severing deep ties built over a 47-year relationship. A failure to come to terms could have left Britain and the European Union in a bitter standoff, poisoning relations for years to come.
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Brexit trade deal will lessen, but not kill, the economic pain
By John Chalmers and Gabriela Baczynska
December 25, 2020 — 3.56am
Britain has clinched a last-minute trade agreement with the European Union that will preserve its zero-tariff and zero-quota access to the bloc's single market of 450 million consumers.
But it is a thin deal that will not prevent economic pain and disruption for the United Kingdom or for EU member states, and many aspects of Britain's future relationship with the EU remain to be hammered out, possibly over years.
Economic impact
The UK government's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that, with a deal, Britain would see a loss of output of around 4 per cent over 15 years compared to remaining in the EU.
That presumes a "hard Brexit" of the kind now agreed – a sharp rupture compared with previous divorce proposals, and not much better in economic terms than a "no deal", which the OBR said would have led to a further reduction in output of 2 per cent initially and 1.5 per cent through to 2025.
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Republicans block $US2000 virus payments despite Trump demand
By Andrew Taylor and Lisa Mascaro
December 25, 2020 — 4.48am
Washington: House Republicans have shot down a Democratic bid to pass US President Donald Trump's longshot, end-of-session demand for $US2000 ($2630) direct payments to most Americans as he ponders whether to sign a long-overdue COVID-19 relief bill.
The made-for-TV clash came as the Democratic-controlled chamber convened for a pro forma session that had been scheduled in anticipation of Trump signing the massive, year-end legislative package, which folds together a $US1.4 trillion government-wide spending with the hard-fought COVID-19 package and dozens of unrelated but bipartisan bills.
Instead, Thursday's 12-minute House session morphed into unconvincing theatre in response to Trump's veto musings about the package, which was negotiated by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Trump's behalf.
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, the No. 2 House Democrat, sought the unanimous approval of all House members to pass the bigger cheques, but Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who was not present in the nearly-empty chamber, denied approval.
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'We are struggling': A meagre Christmas for America's jobless
By Joseph Pisani and Christopher Rugaber
December 25, 2020 — 11.11am
New York: Last Christmas, Shanita Matthews cooked up a feast for her family of three: Roast chicken, barbecue spareribs, spinach, macaroni and cheese.
This year? They’ll stick with tuna fish and crackers, among the few items she can afford at the supermarket.
“We’re not really doing Christmas — I guess you can say it that way,” said Matthews, who lives in Suwanee, Georgia. “We are struggling. We are tired, and all I have is my faith."
Like nearly 10 million other Americans, Matthews has been jobless since the viral pandemic ripped through the US economy in March, triggering a devastating recession and widespread unemployment. Now, many months later, they face a holiday season they hardly could have foreseen a year ago: Too little money to buy gifts, cook large festive meals or pay all their bills.
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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/the-biggest-loser-in-the-us-election-20201221-p56p52
The biggest loser in the US election
Joe Biden is taking over a country scorched bare by Donald Trump, who is doing everything in his power to up-end the President-elect's first term.
Jacob Greber United States correspondent
Dec 23, 2020 – 8.41am
Standing in the men’s room of a petrol stop just off Interstate 15, half an hour north of Las Vegas, a man in cowboy boots stomped to the urinal immediately to my right.
Unremarkable, but annoying as there were dozens of alternative spots in the otherwise empty room that he could have chosen to maintain our distance.
And he wasn’t wearing a mask.
When I went to wash my hands – taking the prescribed 20 seconds to be thorough – he made sure to stand at the basin to my immediate left, an unmistakable sneer on his moustached face.
It happened during a 5954-kilometre road trip this month from Washington DC to LAX ahead of a Christmas visit to Australia, and it was deliberate.
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For all the fanfare, Brexit is a victory from a bygone era
By Mark Landler
December 25, 2020 — 1.50pm
London: It took 11 gruelling months for negotiators from Britain and the European Union to hammer out the terms of a post-Brexit trade deal. But in many respects, the deal is already 4 1/2 years out of date.
The world has changed radically since June 2016, when a narrow majority of people in Britain voted to leave the European Union, tempted by an argument that the country would prosper by throwing off the bureaucratic shackles of Brussels.
In those days, the vision of an agile, independent Britain — free to develop profitable, next-generation industries like artificial intelligence and cut its own trade deals with the United States, China and others — was an alluring sales pitch. The buccaneers of Brexit promised to create a "Global Britain."
That was before the anti-immigrant and anti-globalist-fuelled rise of President Donald Trump and other populist leaders who erected barriers to trade and immigration and countries turned inward. It was before the coronavirus pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of far-flung supply chains, fuelling calls to bring strategic industries back home and throwing globalism into retreat.
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Autopsies for both parties
· The Wall Street Journal
Parties often conduct autopsies after losing elections. Since Democrats and Republicans alike gained and lost so much this difficult and bizarre year, both need sober after-action reviews.
Democrats won the White House but not the Senate. They also suffered surprising and significant losses in the House of Representatives. Republicans have the upper hand in keeping the Senate, gained impressively in the House, kept their redistricting edge by turning back a well-funded Democrat effort to flip state legislatures. But they forfeited the presidency.
So what lessons can each party take from 2020?
One is that money can’t buy victory. Democrats outspent Republicans in every seriously contested Senate race yet flipped only Arizona and Colorado. Democrats showered $US132.7m on South Carolina’s Jaime Harrison against senator Lindsey Graham, who raised $US109.3m. Graham won by 10 percentage points. Kentucky’s Amy McGrath, a Marine veteran, received $US96.3m for her bid against Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, whose bankroll was $US69.9m He won by 19.6 points.
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As China’s military activity rises, what is Xi Jinping’s 2021 master plan?
They have the largest navy in the world and have been stockpiling aggressive warships. Now China is primed and ready for war.
December 27, 20207:12am
It’s done it before. Will it do it again? Under chairman Xi Jinping, China’s military capabilities have exploded. It has ramped-up military pressure on Taiwan. It is holding regular large-scale military exercises in the East and South China Seas.
Border clashes with India have resulted in casualties for both sides.
Now international affairs analysts are pondering the odds of imminent military action.
China, they agree, has the means.
It’s a matter of how seriously Beijing believes in the cause.
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Britain, EU release details of post-Brexit trade deal
· AFP
Britain and the European Union on Saturday published the full text of the post-Brexit trade agreement aimed at governing their relationship when the UK definitively leaves the bloc’s single market in just five days.
The document, which is more than 1200 pages long, lays out detail on trade, law enforcement and dispute settlement among other arrangements after the UK leaves the single market and customs union on 31 December.
Despite the complexity of the document, which includes explanatory notes and side agreements on nuclear co-operation and the exchange of classified information, both sides have indicated they will rush through the adoption.
However, with fishing rights one of the final sticking points in the negotiations, a UK fishing industry body condemned the deal as “paltry”.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.