March 28, 2019
Edition.
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The big news
this week is that the Mueller Report has been handed in in the US as the North
Koreans seems to be crab-walking away from their nuclear constraint. Not a good
week for Trump!
In the UK it
looks like Theresa May is in real trouble
with Brexit being rejected.
In Australia
we have has the Coalition returned in NSW and we await the Federal Budget and
the subsequent election.
In NZ the
slow healing has begun and the gun laws are changing.
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Major Issues.
Politicians should know that dog whistling has consequences
Updated Mar 17, 2019 — 7.13pm, first published at 5.53pm
By
the time the final week of the 2007 election campaign rolled around, the Howard
government was already finished.
What
made the defeat worse for the Coalition including, some believe, John Howard
losing his seat, was the Lindsay pamphlet scandal three days before polling
day.
Labor
sleuths caught Liberal Party members letterboxing homes in the marginal western
Sydney seat with flyers that fanned hate again Muslims and Labor.
The
perpetrators included the husband of retiring Liberal member for the seat
Jackie Kelly and the husband of the Liberal candidate. Their flyers purported
to be from a fictional "Islamic Australia Federation" and essentially
accused Labor of supporting the 2002 Bali bombers and claimed the then-opposition
was backing the construction of a mosque in the western suburbs.
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Christchurch: a wound on the national identity
Luke Malpass
Mar 17, 2019 — 11.45pm
It's
Sunday morning in Christchurch, New Zealand. Walking past the Hagley Oval Test
match cricket ground, New Zealand and Bangladeshi cricketers should be warming
up for the second day of a Test match. Yet the ground is eerily silent.
That's
because a few hundred metres across the other side of Hagley Park, within sight
of the oval, the Al Noor Mosque is cordoned off after 50 people were gunned
down in cold blood by Australian Brenton Tarrant during prayers on Friday
afternoon. If the Bangladeshi cricket team bus had been five or 10 minutes
earlier for afternoon prayers, they too would have been caught in the
crossfire.
Instead,
the ground and the park in which it sits is quiet. Police officer Dave
McCarthy, one of 50-odd cops flown down from the capital Wellington on Friday
afternoon, comes over and says to the onlookers, "Hey, guys, I can take
anything over to the mosque?" He proceeds to make several trips over to
the cordon to pick up flowers and messages and deliver them to the walls of the
mosque. Police with high-powered rifles line the streets and a bomb squad sweep
of Deans Avenue is under way. The crowd watches on in respectful silence. Cold,
damp drizzle arrives.
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Income funds pounce on franking changes and low-rate environment
Mar 17, 2019 — 1.22pm
Investment
firms are seizing upon an increased demand for alternate income streams, with
an influx of credit and fixed-income funds aimed at retail investors to hit the
market in the next few months.
"People
have had cash in term deposits and cash in franked dividend yields and now the
reduction in franking benefits for retirees and very low term deposits has
opened up that space in the middle," Schroders Investment Management fund
manager Mihkel Kase said.
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Australia has eight police forces but none are tracking hate crimes
By Nick Kaldas
March 17, 2019 —
4.45pm
The
incidents
in Christchurch have brought an unprecedented horror for New Zealand and shaken
the civilised world. It would be impossible for any decent person not to grieve
for the innocent people killed and wounded by a mad gunman who clearly planned
meticulously for his evil acts.
Video captures the moment a suspect
was arrested in Brougham Street after the mosque shootings in Christchurch.
Yet
we must reflect on what happened and try to learn from it to prevent these
attacks and protect our societies as best we can.
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Last chance for Coalition to gain franking credit from voters
March 18, 2019 —
12.01am
The
next few weeks will determine whether the Coalition is finally able to
capitalise on an economic gift from Labor: Its plan to abolish franking credit
tax refunds.
The
Coalition’s “retiree tax” campaign has the potential to convince elderly voters
of the fib that Labor wasn’t only coming after wealthier investors with
share-portfolios, but all retirees, and that it is a tax, when it is the
opposite.
Labor
handed the Coalition a sword with which it could repeatedly wound its election
chances. If only the government could keep its hands on the hilt.
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New trial launched to make renewable power more reliable
March 18, 2019 —
5.11am
A
new trial has been launched to cut power prices and make wind and solar
energy more predictable by letting renewable generators forecast their own
electricity production.
Australian
Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) chief executive Darren Miller said with better
forecasting it will ultimately lead to lower power costs by removing the
unevenness in wind and solar generation.
With better weather forecasting wind farms can remove some of the
variability of their generation, making them more reliable.
“Improving
forecasting of wind and solar generation will better integrate variable
renewable energy into the grid, reduce grid instability and reduce costs. It’s
a win-win for everyone,” Mr Miller said.
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Christchurch: The 'how' is explainable. The 'why' is harder to digest
By Greg Barton
March 17, 2019 —
1.08pm
When
lives are tragically cut short, it is generally easier to explain the “how”
than the “why”. This dark reality is all the more felt when tragedy comes at
the hands of murderous intent.
Explaining how 50 people came to be killed, and almost
as many badly injured, in Christchurch’s double massacre of Muslims at prayer
is heartbreaking but relatively straightforward.
As
with so many mass murders in recent years, the use of an assault rifle, the
ubiquitous AR-15, oxymoronically referred to as “the civilian M-16”, explains
how one cowardly killer could be so lethal.
It
was much the same in the Pulse
nightclub in Orlando, Florida, three years ago, when one gunman
shot dead 49 people in a crowded space and, though the motive appears very
different, the same sort of military instrument of death lies behind the 58
deaths in Las Vegas a year later. An AR-15 was used to shoot dead 11 worshippers in
Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Synagogue last October and a similar weapon was used
to kill six people in a Quebec City mosque in January 2017.
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Stabbing near London is far-right terrorism, police say
March 18, 2019 —
5.37am
London:
British police say a stabbing west of London in which a man attacked a teenager
with a baseball hat and knife while hurling racist abuse is being treated as a
terrorist incident "inspired by the far-right."
A
50-year-old man from the village of Stanwell, near Heathrow Airport, was
arrested Saturday on suspicion of attempted murder and racially aggravated
public order offences. A 19-year-old man was taken to the hospital with non-
life-threatening injuries.
Neil
Basu, head of counter-terrorism policing, said Sunday that while the
investigation was just beginning, the incident had "hallmarks of a terror
event." He added "police are committed to tackling all forms of toxic
extremist ideology."
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Alt-right extremists are not being monitored effectively
By Cameron Houston and Shane Wright
March 17, 2019 —
6.05pm
Intelligence
agencies on both sides of the Tasman are scrambling to work out how accused
terrorist Brenton
Tarrant evaded detection while planning his massacre in
Christchurch, amid concerns of further violence by far-right extremists.
And,
in comments backed by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, a former NSW deputy
police commissioner has called for the creation of a national database of hate
crimes, which he described as a stepping stone towards the type of mass murder
that claimed 50 lives in Christchurch.
Nick
Kaldas, who quit the police force in 2016 after a 35-year career, said an
"all-hands-on-deck" approach was needed to deal with right-wing
extremism.
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Franking credit grab will hit retailers
hard
Bricks and mortar retailers that don’t sell food are set to be hit
with even tougher times in Australia, facing a downturn that will lower rents
and reduce the value of both small and large shopping centres.
The sharemarket has been anticipating a longer term value fall,
but the downward momentum is now accelerating.
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AFIC survey reveals franking credits fears
- 2 hours ago March 18, 2019
The nation’s biggest listed investment company, the $7.2 billion
Australian Foundation Investment Company, says a survey of its shareholder base
found more than 85 per cent of respondents declare they will be negatively
impacted by the ALP’s planned elimination of excess franking credits.
In a series of information meetings across the country, AFIC also
said it had posted a letter on its website for shareholders to write to their
MPs, while the listed investor has engaged through various industry groups to
lobby on shareholders’ behalf.
AFIC, which looks after more than $7 billion in listed equities on
behalf of 130,000 shareholders, said it is also looking at further strategies
to try to influence policy makers on the issue of protecting franking credits.
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An investor's guide to the federal election
Mark Draper
Updated Mar 18, 2019 — 10.58am, first published at 10.53am
As
if worrying about potential changes to franking credits and capital gains tax
discounts weren’t enough, there are myriad other potential changes that
investors need to think about should Australia have a change of
government at the next federal election, as is widely expected.
Normally
politics doesn’t feature prominently with investment decisions, but we suspect
that this federal election will bring politics to the top of mind for
investors. Here we examine some of the sectors that are likely to be affected
by the election.
Nathan
Bell, a senior portfolio manager for Intelligent Investor, says: “If Labor
reduce the capital
gains tax discount to 25 per cent, that could drastically reduce demand for
investment properties, which has already collapsed due to falling property
prices and tighter lending.
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The Overton Window: how white nationalist ideas made their way into our
political debate
Updated March 18, 2019 —
12.17pmfirst
published at 12.00pm
This
time last year, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton made it his personal mission
to bring to public attention the plight of a forgotten people, a people
persecuted in their own land, a people who might benefit from the compassion
and humanitarian assistance of Australia.
It’s
been a while since Dutton has mentioned the white South African farmers he said
Australia could take in under its immigration program because they faced
“in-country persecution”.
He
said he would direct the Immigration Department to
examine the issue. Various newspapers ran with his story.
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Sydney and Melbourne house price fall sharpest in five downturns since
1965
Updated Mar 18, 2019 — 3.53pm, first published at 3.32pm
The
fall in Sydney real house prices is close to hitting its average downturn
decline at only halfway through the average downturn cycle, setting it up for
the sharpest drop for the city since 1965, a BIS Oxford Economics study shows.
The
average downturn for Sydney house prices is 14 quarters and the average total
real price decline each downturn is 21 per cent. The current downturn has
progressed through six quarters to December 2018, but real median prices –
taking out the effects of inflation – are already down 16 per cent.
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The cost of political abatement is coming due
Mar 19, 2019 — 12.00am
Scott
Morrison is too nervous to talk in any detail about any economic costs of the
Coalition's plans for curbing greenhouse gas emissions.
Clarifying
that would only cost the Coalition politically as it tries to edge away from
the image of supporting more coal-fired power.
Nor
does Bill Shorten want to provide too many facts and figures beyond Labor's
promise of 50 per cent renewables and 45 per cent emissions reduction by 2030.
It all sounds so pleasantly painless.
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It's not just a coincidence that nationalist violence is on the rise
David
Leonhardt
Mar 18, 2019 — 10.51am
The
President of the United States suggested last week that his political
supporters might resort to violence if they didn't get their way.
The
statement didn't even get that much attention. I'm guessing you heard a lot
more about the college-admissions
scandal than about the President's threat of extralegal violence. So let
me tell you a little more about the threat.
In
an Oval Office interview with writers from the right-wing news site Breitbart,
President Donald Trump began complaining about Paul Ryan.
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Redneck to murderer: rise of far right new challenge for Australia
The murder of 50 people at Christchurch mosques allegedly by an
Australian man has shone the spotlight on the rise of nationalists.
Mar 18, 2019 — 11.00pm
While
repeatedly professing not to condone the bloody attack on two mosques, Erikson
suggested it was "karma" for Muslims for "beheading, attacking,
raping and pillaging white Christians across the world".
"This
is what happens when you attack a people for so long. We're the sleeping dragon
and we've awaken ... people have had enough," Erikson told his followers
in a video recorded from the front seat of his car.
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After Christchurch universities have a responsibility: abandon Ramsay
By Nick Riemer
March 19, 2019 —
12.00am
There
has been much discussion since Friday of politicians’ and parts of the media’s
responsibility for promoting Islamophobia. But what of the role of institutions
like universities?
Since
June last year, a heated debate has been underway on whether universities
should collaborate with the Ramsay Centre for Western Civilisation. Many
academics have accused Ramsay of being the intellectual face of a Western
supremacist politics, and therefore fundamentally incompatible with
universities’ obligation to support multiculturalism. After Christchurch,
the urgency to accurately identify and obstruct the ideological enablers of
racism in society could not be greater.
The
controversy has prompted some image-management from Ramsay itself. Michael
Easson, a Ramsay board member,
has protested that, in fact, Ramsay does not promote any "particular
ideological worldview".
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Telstra and Vodafone temporarily block websites after Christchurch attack
Optus holds off for now.
Telstra
and Vodafone have instituted temporary ISP-level blocks on websites hosting
footage of last Friday’s Christchurch attacks, though Optus indicated it would
not do similarly unless directed.
Both
Telstra and Vodafone released similar statements as pressure mounted for action
to be taken against news organisations and platforms that enabled the attack to
be broadcast live or replayed.
“We've
started temporarily blocking a number of sites that are hosting footage of
Friday’s terrorist attack in Christchurch,” Telstra said in a statement on Twitter.
“We
understand this may inconvenience some legitimate users of these sites, but
these are extreme circumstances and we feel this is the right thing to do.”
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Sydney prices could fall up to 30pc
Updated Mar 19, 2019 — 3.50pm, first published at 3.22pm
Sydney's house prices could fall by up to 30 per cent
when the downturn is over if its decline doesn't slow down by the third quarter
of the year, BIS Oxford Economics warns.
In
its bi-annual forecast in Sydney on Tuesday, the research group says given the
negativity of the housing sector, house prices could fall between 20 to 30 per
cent in nominal terms, or up to 35 per cent in real terms, especially if
quarterly price falls in June and September this year remain at around 2 to 2.5
per cent or more.
The
full peak to trough price fall of 25 per cent over the full downturn - with the
peak in June 2017 - has been bandied about previously.
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'Very offensive': Morrison denounces Turkish president's Gallopoli warning
March 20, 2019 —
10.15am
Canberra:
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has denounced comments made by Turkey's president
linking the Australian suspect in the New Zealand massacre with Australia and
New Zealand's role in the WWI battle of Gallopoli.
"I
find it a very offensive comment...and I will be calling in the Turkish
ambassador to meet with me and discuss these issues," Morrison said on an
ABC radio interview.
In
inflammatory comments on Monday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested
that anyone who comes to Turkey with anti-Muslim sentiments would meet the same
fate as ANZAC soldiers who died during the Gallipoli campaign.
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House prices tumble even faster than during the GFC, as RBA's concerns
grow over jobs market
UpdatedMarch 19, 2019 —
4.02pmfirst
published at 12.10pm
House
prices across the country are falling even faster than they did during the
Global Financial Crisis amid signs the Reserve Bank will consider an interest
rate cut if the jobs market starts to deteriorate.
The
Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday reported house prices across the
nation's capitals fell by 2.4 per cent in the December quarter to be down by
5.1 per cent through 2018.
In
dollar terms, almost $270 billion has been wiped from the value of the nation's
housing stock since March last year with $179 billion gone from NSW homes.
Victorian home values have fallen by $104 billion.
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Why we all need Shorten in The Lodge. No,
seriously
It is often said that, in a democracy, voters get the government
they deserve. Tinkering with that slightly, there is also a case to be made that,
from time to time, we get the government we need.
And in 2019 we both deserve and need a Shorten government.
First, some background to this astonishing statement. Australia
holds the world record for the longest period of economic expansion, edging close
to 30 years now. Our economic indicators point up or down in all the right directions:
living standards up, unemployment down, disposable incomes up, consumer
spending up, too. Australian banks survived the GFC in good health. The country
has grown rich from mostly decent policies, a healthy dose of happenstance,
plentiful underground resources, and a blessed and booming local geography.
There are warning signs, to be sure. Wages are stagnant and
productivity has been flat. Young people find it hard to break into the
big-city housing markets and there is rising underemployment too, meaning more
people want additional working hours.But it seems that few people look at
horizons and see dark clouds. No world wars for more than two generations, no
depression for even longer, no millennial memory even of the last recession.
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Banks warn climate change ‘material financial risk’ to business
A third of the 38 largest Australian banks, insurance companies
and superannuation funds believe climate change is an immediate “material
financial risk” to their businesses while a further 20 companies believe it
will be a risk in the future, according to the prudential regulator.
In the first survey of its kind, the Australian Prudential
Regulation Authority found all of the 38 large institutions it surveyed were
taking steps to understand the threat of climate change, with a majority of
banks considering climate-related financial risks as part of their management
frameworks.
It comes hot on the heels of a declaration last week from Reserve
Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle that climate change and the conversion to a
low-carbon economy or a world with more erratic weather events would have
“first-order economic effects” that require an immediate but orderly transition
to ensure financial stability.
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Why further financial crises are inevitable
Mar 20, 2019 — 9.56am
It
also removed “qualitative” grades from its stress tests for American banks,
though not for foreign ones. Finally, the Financial Stability Oversight
Council, led by Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, removed the last insurer
from its list of “too big to fail” institutions.
These
decisions may not endanger the stability of the financial system. But they show
that financial regulation is procyclical: it is loosened when it should be
tightened and tightened when it should be loosened. We do, in fact, learn from
history — and then we forget.
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Finding the optimum investment strategy if Labor wins
John Wasiliev
Mar 19, 2019 — 7.00pm
If
it is held in mid-May as expected, the next federal election is less than two
months or fewer than 60 days away. If Labor wins, as anticipated – principally
because the present Coalition government is expected to lose – more than a
million Australians across all income brackets who rely on share investments
for the dividends they pay will be tightening their financial belts.
Why
this will be so is because one certainty that will come with a Labor victory is
reductions in their cash investment income that will from next year translate
into income amounts that range from $50 to more than $600 a week.
This
lost income will not be interest from term deposits or other income paying
investments, nor will it be from property rentals or share dividends credited
to their bank accounts but rather cash refund payments made each year since
2001 by the Australian Taxation Office. The refunds of share dividend tax credits where they exceed an investor's scope to offset them
against tax on other investment income.
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Jerome Powell just boxed the Fed into a corner it shouldn't be in
Mar 21, 2019 — 7.43am
Washington
| The US economy may well be “in a good place", as Fed chairman
Jerome Powell puts it. The state of monetary policy, not so much.
Cowed
by the braying of his president and a self-serving financial market
feedback loop, Powell’s laudable efforts to wean the world’s biggest economy
off easy money have been exhausted.
Not
only did Powell and his team pivot on
Wednesday (Thursday AEDT) from tipping two rate hikes in 2019 to tipping
none - with only one next year - they will begin halting within weeks the
process of running down the gargantuan balance sheet they accumulated after the
crisis.
The
scale and speed of the course change has left many scratching their heads.
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Small businesses suffer under 'self-imposed credit squeeze' by banks
Updated Mar 21, 2019 — 10.45am, first published at 9.25am
Small
businesses face a worsening credit squeeze as more lenders tighten the screws
on using the equity in residential properties for borrowing, by reining in
loan-to-value ratios to as low as 40 per cent, and toughening up document
checks.
Industry
brokers and associations say small businesses are being unfairly caught in the
fall-out from the banking royal commission that has resulted in more onerous
checks on borrowers.
ASX-listed
Adelaide Bank is the latest to toughen terms for small business borrowers that
lending specialists and small business associations claim are cumulatively
squeezing the life out of efforts to grow operations, increase employment,
expand footprint and acquire equipment.
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$100b of lease liabilities headed for balance sheets
Mar 20, 2019 — 12.05pm
New
research estimating the impact of accounting standards that
require leases to be brought on balance sheet finds up to $100 billion of
liabilities will be recognised for the top 100 companies, beginning this year.
The
findings underscore that the effect of the new standard goes well beyond
retailers.
LeaseAccelerator
concludes that Woolworths, Wesfarmers, Ramsay Health Care, Commonwealth Bank of
Australia and Telstra face $54.5 billion of operating lease obligations between
them, based on its analysis of published financial statements and its own
assumptions.
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Fed signals year-long rate pause
Mar 21, 2019 — 5.04am
Washington
| In a dramatic dovish tilt, the US Federal Reserve has scrapped plans for
further official interest rate hikes this year and declared it would halt its
balance-sheet run-off in September, shutting dead its
double-barrelled tightening strategy of 2018.
After
two days of meetings, policy makers lowered their forecasts for the economy and
left the benchmark rate at 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent on Wednesday
(Thursday).
In
a news conference, Fed chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed would continue
to be "patient" on its policy path.
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Stop bagging 'fat cat' bosses; this is the national debate we need
March 20, 2019 —
11.31pm
Australia’s
industrial relations landscape has been the scene of many a pitchfork battle
between bosses and workers over the years.
But
compared to both the 1970s heydays of industrial disputes and the
following decades of major policy reforms to decentralise wage fixing, today’s
industrial battles are, by comparison, mere skirmishes.
That's
not, of course, what Labor leader Bill Shorten would have you believe, having
declared the upcoming federal election a "referendum on wages".
Vote
Coalition and the business 'fat cats' will keep plundering your pay rises!
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Australia's far-right moves to shadowy messaging service amid crackdown on
digital giants
March 20, 2019 —
11.45pm
Two
Australian far-right ringleaders banned by Twitter have urged supporters to
follow them to shadowy messaging service Gab, a "free speech"
alternative notorious for its use by extremists.
Blair
Cottrell and Neil Erikson, two men with criminal convictions who have preached
neo-Nazi values on social media over recent years, have become markers in the
debate over whether Facebook, Twitter and Google should do more to deal with
extremist accounts on their platforms.
The
two figures started publishing from their Gab accounts this week, and since
Tuesday have urged followers through their remaining social media channels to
join them.
Australia's
far-right scene is facing intense scrutiny following Australian citizen Brenton
Tarrant's alleged killing of 50 people at two mosques in the New Zealand city
of Christchurch.
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The sudden shift that should have all of us worried about the global
economy
March 21, 2019 —
11.29am
The
nature of the Fed’s announcements – a majority of the members of its Open
Market Committee expect no rate increases this year and the Fed plans to end
the shrinking of its balance sheet by the start of October – ought to have been
positive for the stock market. Instead the Dow Jones index ended more than half
a percentage point down.
It
was only six months ago that a signalling by the Fed of three rate rises in
2019 and a more aggressive winding down of a balance sheet still swollen by the
central bank’s response to the financial crisis helped spark a dramatic plunge
in stocks.
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Jobless rate falls to eight-year low
March 21, 2019 —
11.46am
The
national unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in eight years but
signs are growing the jobs market may be easing, with large increases in
jobless rates in NSW and Victoria.
The
Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday reported the unemployment rate
edged down to 4.9 per cent in February from 5 per cent. It is the lowest
jobless rate since December 2010 and below market expectations of 5 per cent.
But
the fall was due to a drop in the number of people looking for work.
The
total number of Australians in work in February rose by just 4600. Markets had
been expecting a 15,000 increase.
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Bonds headed deeper into uncharted territory
As the Federal Reserve hits the pause button on rate hikes,
Australian bond rates are drifting further into unforeseen territory.
Mar 21, 2019 — 2.57pm
Key Statistics
- 1.90Australian 10-year rate
- -60 bps Gap between Australian and US
rates
- 10.7%Chance of an RBA rate cut in May
On
Thursday the Australian 10-year bond rate fell below 1.9 per cent, inching
closer to its lowest-ever level of 1.82 per cent reached in August 2016.
The
Australian dollar rallied in response to the Fed, and again on the drop in the
unemployment rate to 4.9 per cent from 5 per cent on Thursday; it is fetching
US71.54¢.
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How Christchurch has changed politics
Mar 21, 2019 — 8.00pm
A
couple of weeks ago, Mathias Cormann and Scott Morrison were linking refugees
to franking credits.
Not
boat people who the government classifies as illegal arrivals, but people who
are legitimately granted entry under the humanitarian quota within the annual
migrant intake.
In
2017, Labor pledged to increase the humanitarian intake, from 18,750 people to
27,000 people by 2025.
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The fallout of falling house prices
Mar 21, 2019 — 7.00pm
Philip
Lowe still believes the fall in house prices, especially severe in Sydney and
Melbourne, is manageable for the overall economy. He is backed by the
relatively low unemployment rate, re-enforced by the February unemployment figures and a headline jobless
rate falling to 4.9 per cent.
True,
there was an increase in unemployment rate in NSW and Victoria but at 4.3 per
cent and 4.8 per cent respectively, these states remain below the national
average. After all, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian is facing an election on
Saturday based on a booming economy and her exuberant promise to NSW voters
that "they can have it all". If she loses, (now looking less likely
thanks to some recent Labor bloopers), it will be more due to her failing
political leadership style rather than a failing economy.
Yet
the sense of apprehension is growing – including, it seems,
at the Reserve Bank – about the potential impact of a decline in mortgage
lending and in prices which shows little sign of levelling off.
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Fed's pause has implications for Australia
The RBA, like the Fed and much of the world's economics
fraternity, is in wait-and-see mode to gauge if the early 2019 global softening
is a temporary blip or could turn into a more prolongned slowdown.
Mar 21, 2019 — 5.30pm
International
economic events have real consequences for Australia, so the most influential
central bank tipping a pause this year on interest rates has at least two major
local implications.
First,
the US Federal Reserve has confirmed the world economy is slowing and the
future is more uncertain than the upbeat global outlook mid-to-late last year.
The
moderation in the global expansion – from China to Europe and to a lesser
extent the US – is being felt in Australia and is closely watched by the
Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg as he prepares his
first budget.
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Doomed 737 jets lacked 2 safety features company sold only as extras
Hiroko Tabuchi and David Gelles
Mar 22, 2019 — 7.49am
As
the pilots of the doomed Boeing jets in Ethiopia
and Indonesia
fought to control their planes, they lacked two notable safety features in
their cockpits.
One
reason: Boeing charged extra for them.
For
Boeing and other aircraft manufacturers, the practice of charging to upgrade a
standard plane can be lucrative. Top airlines around the world must pay
handsomely to have the jets they order fitted with customised add-ons.
Investigators who verified data extracted from the black box
recorders of the Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 MAX plane have found 'clear
similarities' with the Lion Air flight that crashed in October.
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Toxic tribalism and the sad, broken state of Australian conversation
March 22, 2019 —
11.30am
Last
August, at a Donald Trump rally, I got talking to a man named Fred. It was
still a few hours until the President was due to appear on stage and we were
queuing for hot dogs.
Fred
was the archetypal Trump voter: a white, middle-aged, blue collar worker who
had voted Democratic his whole life. But he felt the party had taken voters
like him for granted. As we spoke in rural Pennsylvania, other people joined
the conversation.
As
we continued talking, the temperature of the discussion grew increasingly
heated. What struck me most wasn't how much Fred and the others admired Trump
but how much they hated Democrats. The conversation ended with one man saying
he wished California, a Democratic-voting state of 40 million residents, would
break away and fall into the sea. Fred countered that he looked forward to the
day a massive earthquake hit the state.
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The future of financial advice is forked
The old model of financial advice is crumbling leaving those
seeking help with two options. One of them is a robot and the other might be
out of your reach.
Mar 23, 2019 — 12.00am
When
a large shipping vessel sounds a prolonged blast of its horn every two minutes
it’s a signal that all other craft in the area should pay attention.
Westpac’s
CEO Brain Hartzer said the bank was withdrawing from advice because costs were
rising and revenues were falling. Personal financial advice was a high-risk,
loss-making business and Australia’s second-largest bank could no longer make
it work.
-----
Treasuries buying wave triggers curve inversion
Emily Barrett
and Katherine Greifeld
Mar 23, 2019 — 5.57am
New
York | The US Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since
the last crisis, triggering the first reliable market signal of an impending
recession and rate-cutting cycle.
The
gap between the 3-month and 10-year yields vanished as a surge of buying pushed
the latter to a 14-month low of 2.416 per cent. Inversion is considered a
reliable harbinger of recession in the US, within roughly the next 18 months.
Demand
for government bonds gained momentum Wednesday, when US central bank policy
makers lowered both their growth projections and their interest-rate
outlook. The majority of officials now envisages no hikes this year, down
from a median call of two at their December meeting.
-----
Australia can defy economic gravity for longer
By Clara Ferreira-Marques
March 22, 2019 —
3.28pm
After
nearly three decades, Australia’s gravity-defying economy is finally showing
signs of bending toward the laws of physics. Growth sputtered in the fourth
quarter, with house prices falling and wages only inching up. There are ways,
however, to keep the momentum going.
Living
up to its sobriquet, the Lucky Country has admirably navigated the Asian
crisis, the global financial crisis, the end of the largest mining boom in its
history and domestic political upheaval that includes six prime ministers in
about a decade.
Immigration
helped, but ripple effects from China's boom, and then a ballooning property
market and infrastructure investment, helped more. Much of that is now coming
to an end.
-----
A tectonic shift to the left in the Australian political landscape
By Tom Switzer
March 23, 2019 —
12.00am
Australia
is entering a new political era. Unless conservatives and genuine liberals make
persuasive counter-arguments, we could be in the midst of a fundamental
realignment in the Australian cultural landscape that entrenches progressive
shibboleths for a generation.
It’s
a far cry from the Howard years (1996-2007). In those days, it was those on the
ideological left who were in a despondent mood, because conservatives
increasingly represented the political mainstream.
For
a man routinely described as lacking charisma, John Howard managed to hit just
the right tone. He showed that integration was the key to social cohesion.
Citizenship tests were born. The republic was passe.
Ably
supported by Philip Ruddock, Howard showed that controlled border protection
benefits nobody more than the immigrants who come here fairly and legally. As a
result, it helped damp down the fires of racism and xenophobia. (Just look at
Europe today.)
-----
Unintended consequences put squeeze on
economy
The Australian economy is being hammered by a double dose of responsibility:
responsible lending and responsible budgets.
Oh, the irony.
We have a credit squeeze and fiscal tightening at the wrong time —
that is, into the teeth of a cyclical property downturn — because banks and
governments were irresponsible for too long, and are now trying to atone for
their sins by being responsible.
More broadly, Australia is reaping the result of having an economy
based on real estate, resource exports and immigration, excluding
manufacturing and ideas.
The nation’s economic health is hostage to the banks and China and
there is an also a productivity-sapping infrastructure deficit that can’t be
made up because state stamp duty revenues are now collapsing.
-----
Mar 22, 2019 — 5.01pm
Security
agencies are stepping monitoring of far-right extremists in the wake of last
week's Christchurch
mosque massacres that left 50 dead allegedly at the hands of an Australian-born
white supremacist shooter.
Home
Affairs Department secretary Michael Pezzullo warned on Friday that extremists
had nowhere to hide.
"The
department has rededicated itself to standing resolutely against the extremist
ideology of white supremacy and its adherents to whom I say: 'You are on our
radar and you will not be able to incite the racial strife that you
seek'," Mr Pezzullo told Senate estimates.
"The
scrutiny and pressure you are under will only intensify."
-----
Updated Mar 24, 2019 — 12.46am, first published at Mar 22, 2019 — 11.00pm
NSW
Premier Gladys Berejikilan's government will be
returned to power after the Labor opposition was only able to secure a modest
swing in an election campaign fought over how to spend the state's huge tax
revenues.
With
half the votes counted, the Coalition had secured about 45 seats in the 93-seat
parliament. Early counting estimated there was a swing to the Labor Party of
1.5 per cent, far short of the 3.2 per cent uniform shift needed to take out
the government's parliamentary majority.
In
a state where a Coalition government hasn't won a third term since the 1970s,
Labor's primary vote was down 1.1 per cent, delivering a huge blow to its hopes
of snatching power from the Liberals and Nationals, or at least forcing them
into minority government.
-----
March 17, 2019 —
12.00am
Donations
are a bigger influence on Australian politics than polls and the major parties
have a history of ignoring mainstream voter opinion, social researcher Rebecca
Huntley says.
Dr
Huntley’s forthcoming Quarterly Essay, Australia Fair, argues that polls
are often used as a short-term weapon by political rivals but do not truly influence
policy and politics.
“If
only research was as influential as donations!” she told The Sun-Herald.
"It
doesn't matter how many times you show a political party that not only your
constituents believe something but the swinging voters do too, the ideology of
the party, who is in the parliament and more importantly who pays money to
political parties overwhelms what the information might be telling them.”
-----
A new criminal division of the Federal Court will be established
to try cases exclusively against banking executives and institutional
misconduct as part of a $600 million funding boost to regulators in response to
recommendations of the banking royal commission.
In a move to expedite prosecutions currently brought in state
jurisdictions, the Morrison government plans to expand the reach of the Federal
Court from hearing civil cases to include criminal prosecutions of the
corporate sector.
With an expected spike in the number of charges to flow from the
findings of the Hayne royal commission, Josh Frydenberg said it was the only
way to ensure justice was delivered “swiftly”.
-----
Royal Commissions And Similar.
Banks' big retreat may go too far, warn corporate advisers Luminis
Mar 18, 2019 — 12.15am
Australia's
big banks are in the middle of a giant retreat, selling and spinning off
businesses worth billions of dollars in an effort to simplify and re-focus on
their core purpose of writing loans and banking deposits – but they'd better be
careful not to go too far.
That's
the view of some of Australia's most senior corporate advisers, the partners at
boutique firm Luminis Partners, who are watching with interest the fallout from
the banking royal commission and strategy shifts at the big four banks and
other financial services companies.
"In
10 years' time, people will look back and say 'why did they exit some of these
businesses' and I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years' time the cycle returns
and they go back into some of these businesses," says Luminis Partners
co-executive chairman and 30-plus year investment banker Simon Mordant.
-----
'I felt blackmailed': heavy-handed tactics in the aged care industry
March 18, 2019 —
4.21pm
An
aged care provider attempted to "blackmail" the family of a woman who
had to go to hospital during a period of respite care, saying it would not take
her back unless the family committed her to a permanent place.
Raelene
Ellis put her mother into short-term care at an Opal Aged Care facility in
October last year to get some respite from the demands of caring for a woman
with advanced dementia, but during her stay the septegenarian fell ill with
pneumonia and spent 40-hours in hospital hooked up to intravenous antibiotics.
"Of
course what happens is once mum went to hospital the respite place
ceased," Ms Ellis told the royal commission into aged care quality and
safety on Monday.
-----
Banking Royal Commission - Key lessons for company directors
The
Commission conducted seven rounds of public hearings totalling 68 days, heard
from 130 witnesses and reviewed over 10,000 submissions. At the completion of
this comprehensive review, the message delivered to the industry in the
Commissioner’s Final Report was clear and simple. The Report identified six
basic norms of behaviour that those the subject of the inquiry had failed to
embody:
- obey the law;
- do not mislead or deceive;
- act fairly;
- provide services that are fit for purpose
- deliver services with reasonable care and skill; and
- when acting for another, act in the best interests of that
other.
From
a governance perspective, three key lessons emerged from the Commissioner’s
Report for company directors.
1.
Get your priorities right
The
Commissioner lamented that too often the priority of entities in the financial
services industry was the pursuit of profit above all else, including the
interests of customers and compliance with the law. The Report emphasised that
culture and governance practices must focus on non-financial risk, as well as
financial risk.
-----
Property downturn could affect aged care costs
- By John Rawling
- 12:00AM March 22, 2019
As the aged care royal commission rolls on across the country, the
troubled sector has received a rare positive signal. The unmistakeable trend of
falling property prices, which are down 10-20 per cent Australia-wide, is set
to affect costs in aged care.
Many people have to sell their family home to pay the infamous
Refundable Accommodation Deposits, so it stands to reason that if the family
home is worth 20 per cent less than it was last year, RADs become
commensurately more expensive.
The range of RADs is enormous, varying between different
facilities, aged-care providers, locations, even between different rooms within
the same facility. So far, RADs have not changed to reflect falling house
prices, but we can expect changes soon.
-----
National Budget Issues.
Bringing forward tax cuts just not enough: Deloitte Access
March 18, 2019 —
12.01am
Early
tax cuts aimed at wooing voters back to the Morrison government could undermine
the budget and deliver virtually nothing to low-income earners, according to
new analysis which predicts Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is on track to deliver
the first surplus in a decade.
Deloitte
Access Economics, in its annual preview of the budget, said the government is
benefiting from surging tax revenues from the company sector and ordinary
workers despite growing signs the economy is struggling.
The
budget is pivotal to the government's re-election plans with extra tax cuts
expected to be provided on top of $9.2 billion worth of handouts that were
contained in the mid-year budget update but have yet to be made public.
-----
A budget of tough choices facing Josh Frydenberg
March 18, 2019 —
4.00pm
As
the knight guarding the Holy Grail in the third Indiana Jones film understood,
making the correct choice can be the difference between life and death.
Politically,
budgets - for all the Hollywood special effects sometimes pumped into them
- are also about choices.
A
tax cut here, special expenditure there. Combined, budgets give voters an idea of
what a government is about.
Sometimes,
the choices don't even have to be large to deliver a significant benefit. In
his last budget, for instance, Peter Costello gave the tax office $20 million
to go down the path of pre-filling tax returns in a simple move that to this
day is saving ordinary people time and effort.
-----
Reserve Bank cites uncertainties over outlook
- An hour ago March 19, 2019
The Reserve Bank is counting on economic growth rising to 3 per
cent this year and the jobless rate coming down to 4.75 per cent to return
inflation to its target band.
The bank remains confident in the outlook for employment but
minutes of its February board meeting highlight concern that weak household
consumption may sap the economy’s momentum.
The bank highlights that indicators of future trends in the labour
market, such as the number of job vacancies and surveys of business hiring
intentions, suggested further growth in employment over the short term, while
firms were reporting difficulty in hiring suitable labour.
-----
Australia could be ‘first domino to fall’ in next GFC
A collapse in the housing market could spill into the banking
sector and send “shockwaves” through the global economy, experts have warned.
Australia could be the “first domino to fall” in a global economic
crisis for the first time in its 200-year history.
That’s
according to economist John Adams, Digital Finance Analytics founder Martin
North and Irish financial adviser Eddie Hobbs, who argue Australia’s economy is
looking increasingly
similar to Ireland’s prior to the 2007 housing collapse.
For
nearly three years, Mr Adams has been predicting a looming “economic
Armageddon” in which a vulnerable Australia is overwhelmed by an overseas
financial crisis due to property, household debt and net foreign debt bubbles.
-----
RBA downplays credit crunch risk
Reserve Bank assistant governor Michele Bullock has downplayed the
risk of a credit crunch in Australia, while cautioning that the apartment
market in Sydney is “quite soft”.
While the risks from a slowdown in Australia’s housing and credit
markets amid high household debt are “a little more heightened” than six months
ago, there are no significant implications for financial stability at this
stage, she told the Urban Development Institute Australia in Perth.
In a speech titled “Property, Debt and Financial Stability”, Ms
Bullock noted that the RBA said six months ago in its financial stability
review that global economic and financial conditions were generally positive
and that the Australian economy was improving, but house prices were falling.
-----
Health Issues.
Cost of x-rays and ultrasounds to drop under Coalition pledge to increase
Medicare rebates
All
ultrasound and diagnostic radiology services to be cheaper under plan
Australian Associated Press
Sun 17 Mar 2019 15.43 AEDT
Patients
who need x-rays and ultrasounds will end up paying less under a new Morrison
government pledge to reduce out-of-pocket expenses for the services.
The
health minister, Greg Hunt, announced on Sunday the government would expand
indexation of Medicare payments to all ultrasound and diagnostic radiology
services over three years from 1 July 2020 – for the first time in 20 years.
The
promise means Medicare rebates for about 90% of diagnostic imaging services
will increase regularly at a cost to the commonwealth of almost $200m.
-----
Billion-dollar boost for hospital upgrades promised by ALP
March 18, 2019 —
12.01am
States
and territories would share $1 billion to upgrade key parts of the nation's
hospitals from emergency departments to mental health facilities under a plan
by Labor to ramp up the health issue ahead of the May election.
The
plan is to be announced by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten on Monday and would
see $1 billion for capital investments drawn from Labor's $2.8 billion
hospitals proposal.
Each
state or territory will be able to gain cash which must be spent on capital
works. Either the entire tab for a project will be picked up by Canberra or it
would strike a deal to contribute towards some of the overall cost.
-----
Shorten to pledge $1bn for hospital upgrades
Bill Shorten will today announce $1 billion for capital works to
upgrade Australia’s public hospitals, including the delivery of new wards,
refurbished emergency departments and new palliative care and mental health
facilities.
The Opposition Leader will make the announcement in the Royal
Perth Hospital as he kicks off a week of campaigning in Western Australia in a
bid to refocus the political message.
Mr Shorten has already announced that Labor, if elected, will
establish a $2.8bn Better Hospitals Fund to bolster health services over
2019-25. Today’s announcement will provide clarity over how at least $1bn in
the new hospitals fund will be directed if Mr Shorten wins office.
-----
Bupa’s Australian defence force contract under scrutiny amid nursing home
scares
Healthcare
company dismisses concerns after damning reports of poor performance
Mon 18 Mar 2019 17.06 AEDT
Last modified on Mon 18 Mar 2019 17.08 AEDT
Concerns
are growing that Bupa might not be up to the job of providing quality
healthcare to serving Australian
defence force personnel amid damning reports of poor performance at the
company’s nursing homes.
The
defence minister, Christopher Pyne, announced in January that Bupa would
replace Medibank as the Australian defence force’s healthcare contractor from 1
July.
-----
How I became a fan of primary health networks
And no, it's not just because I'm a
member of a PHN board
Professor Simon Willcock
20th March 2019
Aside
from Labor’s effective (but inaccurate) ‘Mediscare’ campaign in the run-up to
the last federal election, recent polls have been largely devoid of discussions
around health policy.
The
recent history of both Coalition and Labor governments — in terms of what they
delivered rather than what they promised — shows that neither did much beyond
containing costs by capping Medicare payments.
And
any hope that the MBS Review Taskforce, which has been in motion since the last
election, would come up with some real answers is increasingly doubtful.
Like
most national health systems, ours has some uniquely quirky features. We have a
universal Medicare insurance program committed to a general practice
gatekeeper. But we are progressively starving those gatekeepers.
-----
Australia a big drag on full-year profits says Bupa
Mar 20, 2019 — 5.49pm
London-based
healthcare group Bupa has warned that conditions will continue to be
“challenging” in some of its key markets, including Australia where profits
fell 9 per cent last year.
The
Australian and New Zealand business makes up almost 40 per cent of Bupa's group
revenue, which was flat for the year at £11.9 billion ($22.8 billion).
Underlying profit was down 12 per cent.
-----
If you don't know what you want from aged care, you'll pay
Louise Biti
Mar 21, 2019 — 10.47am
Aged
care is shaping up to be one of this year's hot topics, as a royal commission
has begun into aged care quality and safety as we head towards a
federal election.
Medical
and dietary advancements are enabling us to live longer, which is good news,
but living longer also increases the chances that we will live through periods
of frailty, either physical or mental, and require care to help with our
day-to-day life.
In
2017, 3.8 million Australians were over the age of 65, representing about 15
per cent of the population. By 2057, 22 per cent of the population of Australia
is expected to be over the age of 65.
Of
this age group, just over 1 million people accessed a government
subsidised aged care service either at home or in a residential care service during
2016-17. Usage increases with age, as 70 per cent of people aged 85
and over access subsidised care services.
-----
End-of-life inquiry lays out safeguards for voluntary euthanasia
March 21, 2019 —
7.31pm
A
parliamentary committee has laid out safeguards for voluntary euthanasia in the
ACT, should federal laws be changed to allow territories to legalise it in
future.
But
the end-of-life choices inquiry made no explicit recommendation to introduce
assisted dying, in recognition that the territory has no legal power to enact a
scheme.
The
inquiry - which received 488 submissions, held 10 hearings and listened to 87
witnesses over the past 16 months - was tasked with looking at the options
currently available to dying Canberrans and to consider what an assisted dying
scheme in the ACT would look like.
-----
Do what it takes to enjoy old age
Everyone is growing older but, for those fortunate enough to make
it to old age, the experience of being old differs from person to person.
Quality of later life is far from universal.
According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, men
aged 65 in 2015 could expect to live an additional nine years free of
disability and about 10 years with some level of disability, including three
years with severe or profound core activity limitation. For women the same age,
the expectation was for another 10 years free of disability, about 12 years
with some disability, including six years with severe or profound core activity
limitation.
For both sexes, that means a touch over half of retirement spent
with a disability, although with women obviously still living longer than men.
Of course, a lot depends on how well people spend their earlier years and,
often times, their access to quality healthcare. Bad habits, unnecessary
risk-taking and neglected problems have a tendency to mount up, coming to a
head when you are least prepared to respond.
-----
Labor’s health hit on 65,000 families
Up to 65,000 families in regional areas are the most likely to be
targeted under Labor’s plans to scrap private health insurance rebates for
so-called “junk” policies.
In figures released to The Australian last night, Labor’s
health spokeswoman, Catherine King, said Labor’s plans would affect 65,000
families, with a saving to the budget of $80 million.
Health Minister Greg Hunt accused Labor of planning to force
millions of Australians out of private health insurance, and of presiding over
a policy that was now in chaos.
“It’s reprehensible that
the people mostly likely to be hit by Labor’s private health insurance policy
are elderly people in regional communities,” Mr Hunt said. “This is complete
policy chaos — Labor can’t be trusted.”
-----
March 23, 2019 —
8.04pm
In
2011, few had heard of Pfizer’s nerve-pain pill Lyrica. It was mostly confined
to specialist pain clinics, doses kept low to minimise nasty side-effects.
Eight
years later, it is one of Australia’s most prescribed drugs. More than 4 million
scripts for pregabalin, the drug’s generic name, were written in 2017-18,
costing government and consumers more than $171 million.
The
drug has been linked to more than 250 drug overdose deaths and six suicides.
More than 85,000 Australians are abusing pregabalin, according to one study.
Concerned doctors are scrambling to deal with the fallout.
-----
March 21, 2019 —
5.24pm
Mentally
ill Victorians are being let down by an acute care system starved of funding,
short of staff and operating in constant crisis mode, Victoria’s
Auditor-General says.
In
a scathing report, Auditor-General Andrew Greaves also says the Department of
Health and Human Services understands the extent of the problem but has no
clear plan to fix it.
“Until
the system has the capacity to operate in more than just crisis mode, DHHS
cannot expect to be able to make meaningful improvements to clinical care
models or the mental health of the Victorian population,” Mr Greaves says.
The
Andrews government should not wait for its Royal Commission into Mental Health
to conclude before taking steps to repair the mental health system, he writes
in a report tabled in State Parliament on Thursday.
-----
International Issues.
German bank merger should send shudders through global markets
March 18, 2019 —
2.03pm
Deutsche
Bank has been designated as a "G-SIB" and Commerzbank a
"D-SIB" by the international banking regulators. The mooted merger of
the two struggling German banks ought, therefore, to send shudders through
financial markets and the regulatory bodies.
A
G-SIB is a global systemically important institution. A D-SIB is one of
domestic systemic importance. That means they are regarded as too big to fail.
Put them together and they would create an institution of even greater global
and domestic significance and threat.
Both
banks have spent the past decade struggling to cope with the legacies of the
financial crisis and making little progress. And now they want to merge?
-----
Brexit bombshell: May denied third last-gasp vote on EU divorce deal
March 19, 2019 —
4.08am
London: The
Speaker of the UK Parliament, John Bercow, has thrown a bombshell into the
Brexit crisis, ruling that Prime Minister Theresa May cannot have a third vote
on her Brexit divorce deal unless it gets “substantially” changed.
The
ruling has provoked fury in the government, with one government minister
reportedly accusing Bercow of breaking the country’s constitution.
The British government must submit a
different proposition to parliament to the one it lost last week if it wants to
hold another vote on its Brexit plans, said the parliament's speaker, John
Bercow.
It
almost guarantees that May must seek a long delay to Brexit, which is due in 11
days. Any delay must be agreed by the heads of the other 27 EU countries, who
are meeting this week in Brussels.
-----
Let's delay EU exit, May to tell Brussels
Mar 20, 2019 — 4.52am
London
| British Prime Minister Theresa May will head to Brussels on Thursday to ask
the 27 European Union leaders for a delay to Britain's imminent departure, at a
summit that could jolt the whole Brexit process onto a new trajectory.
With
the Brexit D-day looming on March 29, Mrs May will reportedly write to European
Council President Donald Tusk on Wednesday (AEDT) seeking a long or short
'Brextension' - or possibly the option of choosing either.
Her
spokesman said early on Wednesday that Mrs May's prediction of a political
crisis "had now come to pass".
-----
Australian coal in the firing line of Chinese 'environmental' crackdown
Updated March 20, 2019 —
12.58amfirst
published March 19, 2019 — 6.53pm
Beijing:
China's crackdown on coal imports has become significantly harsher, with
Australian and Mongolian coal being particularly targeted for inspection on
"environmental" grounds.
Inspectors
recently rejected 182 trucks carrying 19,540 tons of Mongolian coal, the
biggest coal turn-back in years.
And
Australian coal continues to suffer long delays at Chinese ports, with coal
industry analysts who spoke to The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald saying environmental
inspections had been significantly stepped up this year.
------
'Matter of great personal regret': May asks Brussels for Brexit delay
March 21, 2019 —
9.32am
London:
UK Prime Minister Theresa May has sought to place the blame for her country’s
Brexit political stalemate and constitutional crisis squarely on the nation’s
parliament.
On
Wednesday night she addressed the nation accusing members of parliament of
playing “political games” and holding “arcane procedural rows”.
-----
Trump's man in the Fed helps explain its dovish turn
Mar 21, 2019 — 12.02pm
Washington
| Donald Trump's most recent pick for the Federal Reserve has been instrumental
in driving the central bank's sharply
dovish direction and countering the influence of others who want more rate hikes
to head off inflation, says economist Nouriel Roubini.
Richard
Clarida, an economist and former Pimco managing director, was appointed
vice-chairman of the Fed Open Market Committee in October at the height of
Mr Trump's attacks on chairman Jerome Powell's rate hikes in 2018. These, he
said, were his "greatest threat" and a sign that policy makers
were "crazy".
-----
Crimea: Enduring five years in a human rights black hole
By Dr. Mykola Kulinich
March 22, 2019 —
12.00am
This
month marks five years since Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula was invaded and
subsequently occupied by Russia. The occupiers who came from across the border
would come to be known as “Putin’s little green men” — Russian troops with
their military insignias hidden.
Russian
President Volodymyr Putin at first brazenly denied his country’s involvement,
then later admitted that it was an under-cover operation by Russian
special forces.
The
Kremlin held a sham referendum and installed a puppet government. These events
shocked the world community and created the dangerous precedent
which undermined the law-based world order. On March 27, 2014, the United
Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 “Territorial integrity of
Ukraine” condemned occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and all
western democracies including Australia imposed
sanctions on Russia.
-----
EU allows Britain a delay on Brexit date
March 22, 2019 —
11.10am
London:
The UK has been given a reprieve of at least a fortnight to try and work out
what it wants from Brexit.
The
announcement comes as local media revealed that Britain's military
is planning for a no-deal Brexit from a nuclear bunker below its
government headquarters.
Brexit
had been due to happen on March 29 – next Friday – but after a marathon session
in Brussels on Thursday evening EU national leaders agreed to grant British
Prime Minister Theresa May’s request for a delay.
Until
April 12 “all options will remain open and the cliff edge date will be
delayed,” European Council president Donald Tusk said. “The UK government will
still have a choice of [May’s] deal, no deal, a long extension or revoking
[Brexit].”
-----
Is the Risk of Ethnic Conflict Growing in Ukraine?
New Laws Could Create Dangerous Divisions
The
Ukrainian presidential election is only weeks away, and its outcome is highly
uncertain. President Petro Poroshenko is lagging in
the polls behind Volodymyr Zelensky, a television actor whose only
political experience consists of playing the president of Ukraine in a sitcom.
The country will head to the polls while still at war in its eastern region of
Donbas, where in 2014, local separatists forcibly seized government buildings
and declared people’s republics in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Since
then, the conflict has taken on elements of both a civil war and an interstate
conflict, with Russia arming separatist combatants and sponsoring the breakaway
regions. Violence is muted but steady: the number
of deaths recently reached 13,000, one-quarter of them civilian.
Unsurprisingly,
Ukraine’s leading presidential candidates are all running on platforms
resisting Russia. The choice is logical given popular anger over President
Vladimir Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and continued interference in
Donbas. But Poroshenko differs from other candidates in that he couches his
anti-Russian message in a national identity incorporating elements of Ukrainian
ethnicity. Whereas his campaign slogan in 2014 was “A New Way of Living,” his
current slogan is “Army! Language! Faith!”
-----
Mueller delivers final report to AG with no further charges
Mar 23, 2019 — 8.21am
Washington
| Special Counsel Robert Mueller's long-anticipated report into whether Donald
Trump or those around him conspired in Russia's interference in the 2016
election has recommended no new charges in what is shaping up as a significant
victory for the President and his family.
Pushing
the Washington pundit machine into overdrive late on Friday (Saturday AEDT)
Attorney-General William Barr confirmed receipt of the Mr Mueller's report.
Seperately,
Department of Justice sources told reporters that the report delivers no
additional indictments, confounding the expectations of many Democrats and
judicial experts that there would be more allegations against the president.
America
now waits in suspense on the contents of the report from Mr Mueller's
investigation which has cast a shadow over the entire Trump administration
almost since day one.
-----
Mueller probe is over, but will Trump emerge vindicated or condemned?
March 23, 2019 —
11.25am
New
York: The end of special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation
represents a defining moment of Donald Trump's presidency.
For
almost two years, the investigation has loomed over Trump like a terrifying
shadow, distracting and tormenting him.
Special counsel Robert Mueller has
closed his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US election.
Meanwhile,
millions of Democrats have invested enormous hope in the idea that Mueller will
unearth something devastating about Trump – something capable, perhaps, of
ending his presidency prematurely.
-----
Turn in your smartphones: How Mueller kept a lid on Trump-Russia probe
By Karen Freifeld and Nathan Layne
March 23, 2019 —
2.45am
Washington:
When members of special counsel Robert Mueller's team investigating Russia's
role in the 2016 US election arrived for work each day, they placed their
mobile phones in a locker outside of their office suite before entering.
Operating
in secrecy in a nondescript glass-and-concrete office, the team of prosecutors
and investigators since May 2017 has unearthed secrets that have led to
bombshell charges against several of President Donald Trump's aides, including
his former national security adviser, campaign chairman and personal lawyer,
who have pleaded guilty or been convicted by a jury.
-----
March 23, 2019 —
11.25pm
President
Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner is cooperating with a wide-ranging probe
by the US House Judiciary Committee into Trump and possible obstruction of
justice and abuse of power, a person knowledgeable about the matter said on
Friday.
Just
hours earlier, a lawyer for Trump adviser Roger Stone said in a letter seen by
Reuters that Stone was not cooperating with the same committee and cited his
right to avoid self-incrimination under the Fifth Amendment of the US
Constitution.
Special counsel Robert Mueller has
closed his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US election.
The
contrasting responses to Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler's probe
targeting 81 individuals and groups came on the same day the Justice Department
announced the completion of a report by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into
Trump and Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
-----
March 24, 2019 —
12.00am
From
the two minutes' silence across her nation on Friday to the gunman who shall
not be named, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern showed us this past
week that leadership is as much what you don’t say as what you do.
Our
own Prime Minister Scott Morrison, despite loosening his tie and sitting down
for a television interview with commentator Waleed Aly, could have taken some
lessons out of the Ardern playbook. Not long before his interview on The Project,
which can only be described as awkward and at times aggressive, the New Zealand
first family had some news of their own.
It
was delivered in their trademark don’t-tell-me-show-me style, which has become
synonymous with the social media stream of this former DJ PM and her TV star
partner, Clarke Gayford, host of Fish of the Day and stay-at-home father.
-----
I
look forward to comments on all this!
-----
David.
