July 29, 2021
Edition
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In Australia
we are seeing a COVID outbreak being very hard to control in NSW while we are
seeing SA and VIC doing much better. Talk of recession is now starting as NSW
as the lockdown seems to have no end.
In the US the
fires in the Northwest have become truly Biblical in extent and intensity while
people in Republican dominated states are dropping like flies as they don’t
want to be vaccinated. Massively stupid and deluded ratbags IMVHO.
In the UK we
await to see the consequences of Freedom day! It should be clear about the time
this is available!
Sadly in Asia
the virus is rampant and deaths are rising rapidly! So sad in these poor
countries. Also awfully sad is the start of the end days for Hong Kong as the population that can flees. Just awful.
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Major Issues.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/post-pandemic-inflation-fears-are-overblown-20210719-p58awn
Post-pandemic inflation fears are overblown
The deflationary
forces of technology and the brave new future of work are more important than
the transitory price hikes coming through in current data.
Rana Foroohar
Contributor
Jul 19, 2021
– 10.32am
Too much in
our market system revolves around the short term. That certainly holds true for
the debate about inflation.
Last week’s
data showed US
prices rising at their fastest pace in 13 years. That has led everyone from
top investors to restaurant and hotel owners, who are now finding that they may
have to pay more for previously low-wage service staff, to fret about an
overheating economy.
But the
hand-wringing is premature. These early signs of rising prices are more
reflective of a predictable, post-lockdown surge in animal spirits than any
longer-term trend.
Supply chain
bottlenecks will soon ease, as they did in 2020 with, say, personal protective
equipment. Purchases of cars and vacations will subside as the post-pandemic
spending splurge passes.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/building-a-better-australia-is-a-road-strewn-with-obstacles-20210718-p58asd
Building a better Australia is a road strewn with obstacles
The long
pandemic has exposed an Australian economy that is too narrowly based, lacking
in new ideas, and with new political fractures.
Satyajit Das Contributor
Jul 19, 2021
– 2.46pm
Fortified by
chatter about ‘resilience’ and ‘pulling together’, policy makers promise to
build back better. Rather than tweets and grand announcements, that will
require what German
historian and sociologist Max Weber called the ‘slow boring of hard
boards’. Five issues, many long standing, must be addressed.
First,
activities dependent on free movement of people are now problematic.
Immigration, tourism and foreign students are important to Australia’s economic
activity. New endeavours are now required to drive economic growth.
The pandemic exposed
dependence on skilled and unskilled foreign workers. Border closures have
translated into labour shortages affecting agriculture and hospitality. The
latter has negated domestic tourism plans. Welcome training initiatives merely
reverse years of retrenchment and will take time to yield results. Measures to
facilitate greater female and aged participation in the workforce are
neglected.
Former
Queensland premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s observation of the difficulty of
straddling a barbed wire fence is salutary.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/how-to-get-your-financial-affairs-in-order-20210720-p58b9m
How to get your financial affairs in order
The sooner
you start thinking about the kind of legacy you want to leave, the easier it
will be for everyone, including yourself.
Michael Hutton
Contributor
Jul 20, 2021 –
12.17pm
Being told to
get your affairs in order can seem ominous, particularly if told to do so by a
medical professional. But it doesn’t have to be an arduous or stressful task.
Indeed, the
sooner you start thinking about the state of your financial affairs, and the
kind of legacy you’d like to leave, the easier it will be for everyone,
including yourself.
Anyone can
benefit from having organised financial affairs, not just the dependants and
partners who may outlive you. It can offer peace of mind and may even offer
some present-day tax benefits at the same time.
Regardless of
what is in your Will, it may be a good idea to consider simplifying your
financial structure. For example, is your portfolio overweight illiquid
assets, such as rental properties or holiday homes? Are they being used? If
not, consider selling the properties and investing the proceeds in more liquid
assets, which will be easier to divide when the
time comes.
Such steps make
the process of getting your affairs in order much more
straightforward. Unnecessary companies and trusts might also be wound up. Keep
in mind that bequeathing assets and property doesn’t have to occur solely after
your death.
If you start
passing on mementos and assets to relatives, family and friends now, you can be
sure they have gone to the right people, who also get the opportunity to
express their gratitude.
You could
also look to equalise benefits provided to beneficiaries, rather
than leaving it to equalisation clauses in your Will.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/spend-your-money-before-you-die-treasury-urges-retirees-20210720-p58bcs
Spend your money before you die, Treasury urges retirees
Michael Read Reporter
Jul 20, 2021
– 5.02pm
The Morrison
government wants retirees to draw down their superannuation balances before they
die, and has asked super funds to develop a strategy to make it easier for
members to take money out of their super in retirement.
The
Commonwealth Treasury released a position paper on Monday canvassing the need
for superannuation trustees to develop strategies that would encourage people
to draw down their full super balances in retirement.
The strategy,
which would be in place from July 1, 2022, comes in response to a growing body
of evidence showing retirees are dying with most of their wealth intact.
By 2060, one
in every three dollars paid out of the superannuation system will be an
inheritance rather than retirement income, according
to the government’s retirement income review.
“Partly
because they have only ever been primed to save as large a lump sum as
possible, retirees struggle with the concept that superannuation is to be
consumed to fund their retirement,” wrote Treasury.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/whats-spooking-investment-markets/news-story/f6e4685e6c446e8fb7ab7a4094149026
What’s spooking investment markets?
James Kirby
7:13PM July
20, 2021
Out of
nowhere, it seems, the sharemarket took a headlong dip this week with the worst
single-day drop on Wall Street since October. Europe also managed its worst
day of the year so far, while the ASX dropped a modest 0.5 per cent on Tuesday.
More
significantly, the bond market continues to move in the wrong direction — that
is, bond prices rose and yields fell. If the global recovery is on track, that
should not be happening.
What’s
spooking markets? In a nutshell, the question looms: have we just seen a
post-pandemic recovery? Or rather, was it a recovery into a pandemic set to be
extended by new variants or ineffective vaccines?
The questions
form just as a string of related concerns have accumulated to take a toll on investor
confidence.
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https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-most-m-and-a-deals-fail-20210721-p58bpf
Why most M&A deals fail
Wizened
shareholders in public companies will know takeovers often collapse. Research
about the biggest ones in the past 50 years provides some explanations.
Jul 22, 2021
– 12.00am
As
Australia’s mergers and acquisitions boom takes a breather because of boards
pulling down the shutters on bidders, a fund manager has released timely
research on why so many deals go wrong.
Aoris
Investment Management examined 1000 of the largest M&A deals over the past
50 years, with transaction values ranging from $US5 billion to $US150 billion.
Using a
unique combination of qualitative and quantitative criteria for measuring
success and failure, it found 60 per cent of M&A deals failed.
The two main
causes of failure were the size of the deals and the acquirer stepping outside
their core business.
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https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/retirees-told-they-can-live-fast-and-die-old-20210721-p58bif
Retirees told they can live fast and die old
Michael Read Reporter
Jul 21, 2021
– 2.49pm
Retirees can
afford to take more money out of their superannuation, say experts, but critics
argue generous tax concessions from the Commonwealth government are
discouraging them from doing so.
Challenger’s
chairman of retirement income, Jeremy Cooper, said the framing of super as a
“nest egg” that should not be spent was making older
Australians wary of drawing down their balances.
But this
behaviour comes at a cost, according to the former ASIC deputy chairman.
Research by
Challenger found that a male at the point of retirement with $1 million in
superannuation owed one-third of his balance to generous tax concessions.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-needs-a-place-in-the-space-race-20210720-p58bd3
Australia needs a place in the space race
Australia
has an appetite and market for space-based technology. But we need to boost a
small, ad hoc, and unco-ordinated effort.
James Brown
Jul 21, 2021
– 4.11pm
This week an
18-year-old student, an 82-year-old pilot, a 51-year-old private equity guy,
and his 57-year-old investor brother rode a commercial rocket flight
into space. That may seem like an ordinary sentence to read. It’s really
anything but. Fifty-two years on from the moon landing, the global space
industry is at an inflection point and Australia’s space industry is just
getting started.
Beyond the
billionaire bragging rights of blasting beyond the atmosphere, Elon Musk, Jeff
Bezos, and Richard Branson are making a calculated bet to be the prominent
first movers in the fast accelerating technological and economic domain of
space.
Space
consulting firm Euroconsult assesses global commercial revenue from the space
industry was $428 billion last year. Morgan Stanley expects that to grow to
$1.4 trillion in the next two decades.
One-third of
the 3500 satellites in orbit were launched in the past twelve months, with
plans to launch nearly 100,000 this decade. Little wonder then that New Zealand
space launch start-up
Rocket Labs will shortly list on the NASDAQ at a $5.6 billion valuation and
astronomers fear they soon won’t be able to survey the stars.
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https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/distrust-in-edelman-s-trust-index-20210721-p58bip
Distrust in Edelman’s trust index
Experts
say there are flaws in the methodology of the widely hailed and much quoted
guide that measures faith in business, government and the media.
Jul 23, 2021
– 12.00am
It’s time to
blow the whistle on Edelman’s survey of community trust in government,
business, non-government organisations and the media.
The decision
to highlight the flaws in a survey done by Edelman, a New York public relations
firm, has nothing to do with its damming findings in relation to journalists.
Its trust
barometer published in February found that 64 per cent of Australia’s “mass
population” believe “journalists and reporters are purposely trying to mislead
people by saying things they know are false or gross exaggerations”.
The reason
why it is worth questioning Edelman’s “trust barometer” is because its findings
jump around like a yo-yo, its survey techniques are questionable and its
landmark “trust index” is disjointed from reality.
Edelman set
itself up as the oracle of trust with the publication of an annual survey of
people in 15 countries about 20 years ago. This year there was a half-yearly
update using a smaller sample size but with the same core methodologies.
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Coronavirus And Impacts.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/our-leaders-have-baulked-at-tough-virus-choices-20210715-p589y2
Our leaders have baulked at tough virus choices
By taking
soft options on sealing the border, hard lockdowns and compulsory vaccinations,
politicians are appeasing vocal minorities at the cost of the greater good.
Andrew Mohl Contributor
Jul 18, 2021
– 12.37pm
Our
leadership model today increasingly gives the impression of not being fit for
purpose. Our institutions are under-delivering as we face up to the complexities,
risks, and trade-offs of the pandemic.
There are
growing examples of our leaders baulking at the hard decisions that, as a
community, we need to be taken.
Last
December, I argued
we should fully close our international borders, with no exemptions, as the
hotel quarantine system was clearly flawed.
This would
have protected the broader community from importing the virus, albeit with
obvious costs to Australians stranded offshore (less than 0.2 per cent of the
population).
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https://www.afr.com/politics/business-fights-for-supply-chains-as-nsw-construction-pushed-to-brink-20210718-p58aof
Business fights for supply chains
Jacob Greber Senior correspondent
Updated Jul
18, 2021 – 8.27pm, first published at 7.48pm
Alarmed
business leaders have successfully pushed the NSW government to keep open
western Sydney’s vital supply chain and distribution hubs, even as tougher
lockdown measures threaten to derail a construction boom and induce a double-dip
downturn.
As ongoing
community infections over the weekend forced NSW into tough new restrictions
alongside a snap shutdown in Victoria, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warned
Australians to brace for a damaging hit to economic growth and indicated that recent
labour market gains could falter.
“The economic
impact of the NSW and Victorian lockdowns are significant and are expected to
be seen in future national account and labour force data,” Mr Frydenberg told
The Australian Financial Review on Sunday.
Sunday July
18: New South Wales has recorded 105 local cases of coronavirus and one death
in the last 24 hours
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/vaccination-is-the-only-endgame-for-lockdowns-20210718-p58anz
The end of lockdowns is near but it’s not here yet
There’s no
living with a strain three times more infections than flu and 20 times as
fatal. So we can’t go wobbly on the strategy that’s prevented the deaths and
economic carnage that premature reopening would have entailed.
Steven Hamilton and Richard Holden
Updated Jul
18, 2021 – 1.39pm, first published at 1.31pm
The delta
strain of the novel coronavirus appears not only to be more transmissible but
also to have infected the brains of many public
commentators.
Some are
arguing, incredibly, that this new strain – twice as infectious as the original
version – is reason to abandon the strategy every state and territory has
successfully executed for more than a year. The one that saved tens of
thousands of lives and millions of livelihoods. That made Australia the envy of
the world.
We have to “learn to live with the
virus”, they say, just as they were saying last year. Of course, the
problem is not so much living with the virus but, rather, dying from it. “It’s
just like the flu,” they say, just as they did last year.
Of course,
COVID-19 today is even less like the flu than it was last year. The delta
strain is three times more infectious than the 2009 pandemic flu, and is in the
order of 20 times more fatal.
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https://www.afr.com/rear-window/ama-beats-out-the-epidemiologists-for-pandemic-clippings-20210718-p58arh
AMA beats out the epidemiologists for pandemic clippings
Myriam Robin Columnist
Jul 19, 2021
– 5.00am
The
Australian Medical Association operates most effectively when the interests of
its members and their patients are, in the public mind, blurred.
But the AMA’s
main role is to lobby for the interests of the nation’s doctors. This
unavoidably informs its positions, which in recent months have included
opposition to the largely doctor-less rollout of mass coronavirus vaccination centres.
This is well
worth remembering, particularly when it’s as prominent as it is now, the AMA
having ably stepped in to fill the media’s voracious appetite for commentary on
all matters pandemic.
This
calendar year, newish AMA chief and orthopaedic surgeon Omar Khorshid is by some margin the nation’s
most-cited health expert (apart from those who work for a government),
according to media monitoring conducted for this column by Streem. For raw,
unduplicated mentions in written media (both online-only and print), he’s
earned no fewer than 907 citations, putting him some way ahead of the next
most-quoted expert, Deakin University’s inaugural chair in epidemiology
Professor Catherine Bennett, who
has had 607 mentions so far this year.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/stronger-health-measures-needed-to-contain-delta-super-spreading-20210718-p58ana
Stronger health measures needed to contain delta
Tom Burton Government
editor
Updated Jul
18, 2021 – 7.15pm, first published at 6.26pm
Ongoing
density limits, capacity restrictions at big sports events, indoor mask
wearing, and a focus on school safety are being promoted by experts as health
authorities admit the delta variant is spreading in settings not previously
considered high risk.
Epidemiologists
said the spread in schools, sports stadiums, retail outlets and workplaces
meant until there is extensive vaccination, the public health response is going
to have be very rapid if the country is to avoid constant lockdowns.
Victoria
recorded its second-highest daily caseload since its second wave, with 16 new
cases reported on Sunday, but all were linked to known chains of transmission.
Sunday July
18: There have been 16 local cases of COVID-19 detected in Victoria overnight
on the state's third day of lockdown.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/sydney-and-victoria-lockdowns-taught-us-a-valuable-lesson-20210718-p58ar4.html
Sydney and Victoria lockdowns taught us a valuable lesson
Tony Blakely
Professor
July 18, 2021
— 5.00pm
We have a
natural experiment happening before our eyes. Victoria going hard and early,
NSW part way through slow and steady.
The outcome
of Victoria’s current snap
lockdown pending, modelling groups (including ours) are unanimous. Going
hard and early is costly (in GDP and societal terms) per day. Yes, we get that.
But such a lockdown is likely over quickly, costing less in the long run than
soft or pseudo lockdowns that drag on.
The above
logic is thinking about cost writ large. The cost across society. But imagine
now you are the NSW Treasurer. From his perspective, the maths may be different
because he (and NSW) bear disproportionately more of the cost of a hard
lockdown compared to a soft lockdown. Think business subsidies.
This, I
suspect, is a major cause for what ostensibly appears to be irrational NSW
decision-making. We, as a country, need a unified approach so the correct
cost signals (in additional to health impacts) are what are considered
holistically by the decision makers.
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https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/nightclubs-elated-but-england-s-freedom-day-could-leave-a-nasty-hangover-20210718-p58asi.html
Partygoers celebrate England’s ‘Freedom Day’ amid warnings of a nasty
hangover
By Sylvia Hui
and Guy Faulconbridge
Updated July
19, 2021 — 11.40amfirst published at 7.50am
London:
Sparkling wine, confetti, a midnight countdown: it was not New Year’s Eve, but
it felt like it for England’s clubbers. After 17 months of empty dance floors,
the country’s nightclubs have reopened with a bang.
As midnight
struck on Monday, Londoners flocked to one of the first rule-free live music
events since the pandemic began last year, dancing through the night as England
lifted most COVID restrictions.
Britain, which
has one of the world’s highest death tolls from COVID, is facing a new wave of
cases, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson is lifting most restrictions in England
in what some have dubbed “Freedom Day”.
“I have not
been allowed to dance for what seems like forever,” said Georgia Pike, 31, at
the Oval Space in Hackney, east London. “I want to dance, I want to hear live
music, I want the vibe of being at a gig, of being around other people.”
But clubbers
also voiced concern about a wave of new cases - more than 50,000 per day across
the United Kingdom.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-markets-are-more-afraid-of-inflation-than-covid-20210721-p58bh9.html
The markets are more afraid of inflation than COVID
By Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard
July 21, 2021
— 8.36am
Countries
making up three quarters of global economic output have reached critical
vaccination thresholds. Many others have largely covered the most vulnerable
cohorts.
The world
economy is not going back into a collective lockdown whatever the Delta variant may
bring. Just as the vaccines have broken the link between cases and death,
societies have broken the link between the virus and economic loss. Each wave
has a diminishing impact.
The UK is the
world’s laboratory for opening up. Unfortunately it has done so with
breathtaking incompetence and given the process a bad name. The error is not
the decision to lift curbs. It is a legitimate strategy to open up fully during
the peak of summer when 70 per cent of adults have been fully vaccinated. The
death rate has fallen to levels that resemble winter flu. But if you are going
to do it, do it with conviction. Had the Government halted all isolation
requirements for the vaccinated, the world would not be offered the spectacle
of a Cabinet forced into incarceration on its own “freedom day”.
It will soon
become clear to market traders across the globe whether British
hospitalisations will remain manageable or whether the pandemic again
approaches the catastrophism of Professor Neil Ferguson. If the latter, Monday’s rush into
the safe-haven bonds - gilts, US Treasuries, Bunds - is indeed the
harbinger of something serious.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/uk-s-new-covid-19-strategy-is-dangerous-20210721-p58bpe
UK’s new COVID-19 strategy is dangerous
The
government’s policy of standing back and letting the virus reproduce freely is
an invitation to disaster.
Gabriel
Scally
Jul 22, 2021
– 8.00am
I know of no
episode in history where a government has willingly aided and abetted the
spread of a dangerous infectious disease among its own population. History is
being made.
The
government of the United Kingdom seems to actually want people to catch
COVID-19 in the summer, rather than in the autumn and winter.
Ministers
reason that the understaffed and underfunded National Health Service will be in
major trouble over the winter. To “go now” with the removal of all legal
restrictions, thus producing an even higher level of infections, appears to
be regarded as the right thing to do as it will reduce the inevitable problems
later this year.
This extraordinary
policy has been revealed to the population in small dollops via Downing Street
press conferences, where Prime Minister Boris Johnson is flanked by civil
servants.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/vaccine-blindspot-shows-limits-of-following-the-health-advice-20210719-p58b0e
Vaccine blind spot shows limits of ‘following the health advice’
Conservative
medical advice on the AstraZeneca vaccine failed to consider the broader costs
and benefits, and politicians failed to override the mistake.
John Kehoe Economics editor
Jul 21, 2021
– 3.46pm
The deepening
lockdown of 14 million Australians 1½ years into the pandemic exposes that the
biggest public policy failure is overly cautious medical advice stopping
millions of people receiving the effective and extremely low-risk AstraZeneca
vaccine.
Weak-kneed
democratically elected lawmakers have outsourced difficult decisions and hidden
behind narrow-minded public health officials.
The
flip-flopping and very conservative aged-based AstraZeneca vaccine advice from
the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) failed to
consider the wider costs and benefits of low vaccination rates and lockdowns.
Repeated
lockdowns will have devastating long-term effects on physical
health, mental
health, education,
social wellbeing and the economy.
There will
likely be hidden longer-term costs we are not yet aware of.
In February,
the Therapeutic Goods Administration and ATAGI approved AstraZeneca for adults
of all age groups.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/atagi-misses-the-point-of-the-jab-20210720-p58bd6
ATAGI misses the point of the jab
We always
encourage people to accept the health risk of vaccination for the good of
society. The same should apply to the AstraZeneca vaccine to prevent harmful
lockdowns.
Ashley
Craig and Matthew Lilley
Jul 22, 2021
– 2.24pm
Vaccination
against infectious diseases provides vast benefits to society. The most obvious
is that a person who receives a vaccination reduces their own risk of becoming
sick. But there are also substantial benefits to others.
Vaccination
can reduce the spread of disease, and prevent others from becoming sick.
Society routinely encourages us to consider benefits to others from our health
decisions.
When deciding
whether getting vaccinated is worth the potential risks and side effects, we
are typically willing to consider benefits to other people in addition to
direct benefits to ourselves.
Yet the current advice provided by the Australian Technical
Advisory Group on Immunisation regarding the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine
completely ignores these benefits.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/inarticulate-leaders-in-a-policy-muddle-20210722-p58bwk
Inarticulate leaders in a policy muddle
The vaccine
shambles is an example of what happens when the ultimate authority in the
government are the opinion polls.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Jul 23, 2021
– 4.41pm
Last Sunday,
Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Barnaby Joyce, was asked
a very simple question: would he support any sort of target to reach net
zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050?
As far as
climate change politics is concerned, as far as the fundamental relationship
between the governing Coalition parties is concerned, it is the fundamental
question.
His rambling answer to Insiders host David Speers was too long
to repeat here, but involved the menu in the restaurant in the hotel next to
where Joyce was standing for the interview, and an immediate digression into
what Labor’s policy might be.
When Speers
interjected to say he wasn’t asking about Labor’s approach but the government’s,
Joyce said the Nationals’ approach “is that we want to see exactly what’s
involved and we want to see exactly what the cost is”.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/scott-morrison-s-reckoning-has-arrived-20210723-p58cbm.html
Scott Morrison’s reckoning has arrived
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
July 24, 2021
— 5.33am
It’s been a
source of bafflement and frustration for Labor and Greens voters for months:
How could the Morrison government make so many blunders in plague management
yet still be a pretty good bet to win the next election?
For these
people, there is some satisfaction across all the opinion polls in recent
weeks. The reckoning has arrived.
All the
published polls are showing a clear movement away from the Morrison government.
On every measure of pandemic performance, the Coalition’s approval rating has
fallen significantly.
And we know
why. The pollster for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, Jim Reed, says
that “the No. 1 issue for people in recent focus groups has been the vaccine
rollout”.
“A year ago
people were talking about strong national leadership, with Scott Morrison, Greg
Hunt and Brendan Murphy updating them daily, closing the border, making more
ventilators, financial supports, with four vaccines on order, proactive and
innovative,” says Reed, founder of Resolve Strategic polling.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/if-pfizer-is-quick-fix-give-people-what-they-want/news-story/186e09e80463c6907cd4a891db0ab82f
If Pfizer is quick fix, give people what they want
NATASHA
ROBINSON
7:18PM July
23, 2021
The national
cabinet has made a grave error in refusing to agree to additional Pfizer
vaccine doses for southwest Sydney.
NSW chief
health officer Kerry Chant’s advice that mass local vaccination is necessary in
the face of the floundering lockdown strategy in southwest Sydney should have
been wholly supported. The national economy is haemorrhaging billions for every
week that lockdowns are extended. Yet NSW is treading water with the current
strategy.
It’s time to
confront the fact that lockdown may be a failed strategy for the local
government areas of primary spread in the quest to get case numbers back to
zero.
Accounting
for a significant proportion of community transmission are critical workers who
simply cannot stay at home, who are spreading the virus in workplaces through
no fault of their own before they know they’re infected, and then bringing the
disease home to their families. These are the supermarket staff manning the
checkouts and packing shelves, machinery operators, factory workers in food
production. Supermarket and grocery store employment was the single biggest
employer of people in the Fairfield local government area according to the last
Census.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-s-delta-despair-what-to-do-when-a-lockdown-doesn-t-work-20210721-p58bmn.html
Sydney’s Delta despair: what to do when a lockdown doesn’t work?
By Michael Koziol
July 25, 2021
— 12.00am
If they
hadn’t already become clear during the week, Friday’s shock-and-awe “national
emergency” press conference crystallised several aspects of the COVID-19 crisis
in NSW.
First, the
lockdown is not working. It may have prevented exponential growth in cases, but
the numbers are still going in the wrong direction and at best it’s keeping a
lid on the outbreak. The sacrifices Sydneysiders are making are not yielding
the anticipated outcome.
Second, the
virus is circulating among essential workers and in vital retail settings.
While some transmission is still occurring as a result of illegal household
mixing, Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant highlighted spread in essential
workplaces as a key problem.
“These
workplaces are not the hairdressers or the discretionary premises, they are
premises that actually put food on the table for people in Sydney,” she said.
-----
Climate Change.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/reality-is-catching-up-with-our-freeloading-populist-climate-deniers-20210718-p58apl.html
Reality is catching up with our freeloading, populist climate deniers
Ross Gittins
Economics
Editor
July 19, 2021
— 12.00am
Don’t be
taken in by the Morrison government’s outraged cries of “protectionism” against
the EU plan to
impose a carbon tax on our exports to Europe. It’s we who are in the wrong,
failing to do what we should have to reduce emissions, in favour of politicking
and populism.
What we’re
seeing is just the reality of the world’s need to act to limit climate change
catching up with a government and federal party which, since Tony Abbott used
denialism to seize the party’s leadership from Malcolm Turnbull in 2009,
decided to make global warming a party-political football: a way to beat your
opponents, not a need to tackle the nation’s biggest problem.
It’s a
condemnation of our business people that, when their own side of politics
offered them a way to postpone the inevitable costs of adjusting to a
low-carbon world, they happily embraced it.
It’s a
condemnation of Australian voters that they were willing to allow their
preferred party to tell them whether they cared or didn’t care about their
children’s future. It should have been the other way round. “It’s all too hard;
you do my thinking for me.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/net-zero-2050-impossible-without-electric-vehicle-policy-20210716-p58ach.html
Net zero 2050 ‘impossible’ without electric vehicle policy
By Mike Foley
July 18, 2021
— 9.00pm
Australia
cannot hit net zero emissions by 2050 without a policy for the transport
sector, experts say, and it must be focused on driving people to buy electric
vehicles.
In the first
of a series of industry reports, the Grattan Institute argues strict
regulations are needed to phase out petrol cars with emissions standards that
tighten to zero by 2035.
It says a
carbon price is the most economically efficient way to address emissions, but as
that has been rejected by both of Australia’s major political parties
sector-specific policies are needed to reduce greenhouse gases industry by
industry.
Grattan’s
report says “there are no federal government policies to reduce transport
emissions at any significant scale” and it called for tax breaks on electric
vehicles and swift rollout of emissions standards because the national fleet
“takes more than 20 years to replace” and vehicles sold after that date could
be in operation after 2050.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/two-cheers-for-carbon-tariffs-20210718-p58apt
Two cheers for carbon tariffs
Paul
Krugman
Jul 18, 2021
– 3.46pm
The
Democratic carbon proposal says, in general terms, that we should levy tariffs
on imports from countries that don’t take sufficient steps to limit greenhouse
gas emissions.
The European
Union has laid out, in much greater detail, plans to impose a carbon border
adjustment mechanism — which I’m afraid everyone will call a carbon tariff,
even though CBAM is a great acronym. (See? Bam!)
So how should
we think about carbon
tariffs? From past experience, I know we’ll hear a number of voices
denouncing them as a new form of protectionism and/or asserting they’re illegal
under international trade law. These voices should be ignored.
First, let’s
talk about priorities, people. Yes, protectionism has costs, but these costs
are often exaggerated, and they’re trivial compared with the risks of runaway
climate change. I mean, the Pacific Northwest – the Pacific Northwest! – of
Canada and the United States has been baking under temperatures above 40
degrees Celsius, and we’re going to worry about the interpretation of Article
III of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade?
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/getting-electric-cars-on-the-road-in-australia-could-be-easier-than-you-think-20210720-p58bac.html
Getting electric cars on the road in Australia could be easier than you
think
Ross Gittins
Economics
Editor
July 21, 2021
— 5.30am
I have a mate
who – in normal times, anyway – gives me a lift to the gym in his new
all-electric Mercedes. He loves its lack of engine noise and amazingly fast
acceleration when the lights change (not that I’m implying he’s a rev-head hoon
the police should be watching). I’m no car lover, but it’s certainly a smooth,
quiet ride.
Most of us
accept that, as part of the world’s move to net-zero emissions by 2050, we’ll
all be moving to electric cars. Other countries are already further down this
road than us.
Just 0.7 per
cent of new car sales in Australia are electric.
We’ve made
big strides in shifting electricity generation to renewables, and our emissions
are falling. But electricity production accounts for only a third of our total
emissions. Transport, in all its forms, accounts for about 20 per cent of total
emissions, so its move away from fossil fuels is another part of the transition
we should get on with.
In all the
years we’ve been arguing about climate change, people have tried to convince us
how costly it will be. How disruptive to industry and our way of life. All the
higher prices, the tax we’ll pay, the jobs we’ll lose.
------
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-the-dynamics-of-a-heating-planet-are-driving-extreme-weather-20210722-p58c1c.html
How the dynamics of a heating planet are driving extreme weather
By Peter Hannam
July 22, 2021
— 4.50pm
The heatwaves
and deluges that have inflicted misery on millions of people in the northern
hemisphere’s extreme summer reveal just how little is understood about how a
heating planet will drive weather change.
Weeks after
Canada baked in desert-like temperatures and western US records melted in
multitudes, five “heat domes” have formed, spawning what
the Washington Post described as an “infestation of heatwaves”. The Los
Angeles Times opined about a “hell
on earth” as wildfires erupted in the US.
But the
intense weather hasn’t been confined to heat. Germany and neighbouring parts of
Europe last week copped months’ worth of rain in a day.
Zhengzhou, a
city of 10 million people in central China’s Henan province, was swamped by a
year’s rain over four days to Tuesday, turning roads into raging rivers and
drowning at least a dozen subway rail commuters.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-avoids-unesco-downgrade-of-great-barrier-reef-20210724-p58cjp
Australia avoids UNESCO downgrade of Great Barrier Reef
ROD
McGUIRK
Jul 24, 2021
– 9.11am
Australia on
Friday garnered enough international support to defer for two years an attempt
by the United Nations’ cultural organisation to downgrade the Great Barrier
Reef’s World Heritage status because of damage caused by climate change.
UNESCO had
recommended that its World Heritage Committee add the world’s largest coral
reef ecosystem to the World Heritage in Danger list, mainly due to rising ocean
temperatures.
Australia
deferred an attempt by the UN to downgrade the Great Barrier Reef’s World
Heritage status because of damage.
But
Australian-proposed amendments to the draft decision at a committee meeting in
China on Friday deferred the “in danger” question until 2023.
In the
meantime, a monitoring mission will visit the reef to determine how the impact
of climate change can be managed.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/the-scariest-thing-on-tv-is-the-weather-channel-20210725-p58cn4
The scariest thing on TV is the Weather Channel
Remember when
the weather was just a matter of small talk...Now, the scariest thing on TV is
the Weather Channel.
Maureen
Dowd
Jul 25, 2021
– 7.48am
Washington |
Holy smokes.
It feels like
we are living through the first vertiginous 15 minutes of a disaster movie,
maybe one called “The Day After Tomorrow Was Yesterday.”
Heat waves
are getting hotter. Forests are ablaze. Floods are obliterating. An iceberg
nearly half the size of Puerto Rico broke off from Antarctica.
Florida’s
fleurs du mal, algal blooms known as red tide, have become more toxic because
of pollution and climate change. They are responsible for killing 600 tons of
marine life, leaving beaches strewn with reeking dead fish.
It’s Mad Max apocalyptic.
Crazy storms that used to hit every century now seem quotidian, overwhelming
systems that cannot withstand such a battering.
The heat wave
that stunned the Pacific Northwest, killing nearly 200 people, was followed by
a bolt of lightning igniting the dry earth in Oregon. The Bootleg Fire has now
devoured 400,000 acres, with flames so intense, they are creating their own
weather pattern capable of sparking new fires. The smoke has travelled from the
West to the East Coast, tainting the air.
-----
Royal Commissions And The Like.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/rapid-decline-in-financial-adviser-numbers-sees-fees-rise-20210714-p589ng.html
Rapid decline in financial adviser numbers sees fees rise
By John Collett
July 17, 2021
— 10.00pm
The number of
financial advisers nationally is likely to fall below 17,000 by the end of the
year as industry professionals continue to exit in big numbers because of
tighter educational standards.
By the end of
this year, more than 11,000 advisers will likely have left the industry since
2018, including the expected loss of at least 2000 more advisers who fail or do
not sit a mandatory 3½-hour exam they are required to pass by year’s end.
The fall in
numbers is putting upward pressure on advice fees. Earlier this year, ratings
firm Adviser
Ratings estimated fees had jumped more than 28 per cent in two years.
Tougher rules
for advisers were introduced after a series of scandals that left thousands of
Australians with their life savings wiped out or diminished after receiving
inappropriate advice.
-----
National Budget Issues.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/recession-talk-is-too-early-says-commonwealth-bank/news-story/28ab66221c9c36fe0e218ba02751f66b
Recession
talk is too early, says Commonwealth Bank
Joyce Moullakis
2:06PM July
23, 2021
Commonwealth
Bank is seeing a rise, but not a flood, of requests for home loan repayment
pauses, as the economy braces for a Covid-19 hit from lockdowns plaguing three
states.
CBA’s head of
retail banking Angus Sullivan believes while economic output will be negatively
impacted from the shutdowns, talk of another recession in Australia is
premature.
“Obviously
it‘s a negative, whether we go into recession or not I think it’s probably too
early to tell. We need to see where the numbers go over the next week or two,”
he said.
“Clearly the
next couple of weeks are going to be critical and we‘re doing our best to make
sure we’re prepared for either scenario, and giving as much support to
customers as we can who need it.”
-----
Health Issues.
-----
No entries in
this section this week.
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/long-covid-fears-grow-in-uk-as-curbs-end-and-delta-surges-20210718-p58apd
UK health minister tests positive as curbs end and delta surges
Ronan Martin
Jul 18, 2021
– 12.00pm
London |
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his finance minister Rishi Sunak will
be limited to working from their offices and subject to daily COVID-19 testing
after being identified as a contact of someone who tested positive for the
virus.
Health
Minister Sajid Javid on Saturday (Sunday AEST) said he had tested positive for
COVID-19.
“The Prime
Minister and Chancellor have been contacted by NHS Test and Trace as contacts
of someone who has tested positive for COVID,” a statement from Mr Johnson’s
Downing Street office said on Sunday.
Typically,
anyone identified as a contact by the tracing scheme would be required by law
to self isolate for 10 days.
However, the
government’s two most senior ministers will instead take part in a pilot study
that allows them to continue working from their offices, and only self-isolate
when not working.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/cold-warriors-brew-china-fears-and-phobias-20210715-p589y3
Cold warriors brew China fears and phobias
New myths are
now being spread by Australia’s China hawks to dismiss the idea that guileful
diplomacy can provide a solution to the impasse with Beijing.
James Curran Columnist
Jul 18, 2021
– 2.50pm
Australia’s
China debate resembles the shell-churned ground in no-man’s land. So cratered
is the terrain between trench lines that advance looks impossible.
Seemingly
there is little chance for dialogue between those championing “pushback” and
those arguing that a place for guileful diplomacy remains.
The latter
has become more difficult with President
Xi Jinping’s consistently assertive interpretation of Chinese
exceptionalism. Other countries cannot but take a firm stand against it and
devise policies to reject it.
In 2017, as
the most difficult period in Australia-China relations began, senior officials
here believed it would be defined by “push and shove, trial and error”.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/trade-and-climate-are-on-a-collision-course-at-the-wto-20210718-p58asc
Trade and climate are on a collision course at the WTO
The WTO
and the Paris Climate Accord stand at odds. The compromise needs to be based on
what nations can do now, not promise for 29 years’ time.
Gary Sampson Contributor
Jul 19, 2021
– 3.58pm
Not dealing
with “carbon leakage” has plagued emission-reduction negotiations since the
United Nations Framrwork Convention on Climate Change of 1994. It led to the
failure of the United States to ratify the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, then of the
protocol itself, and may well lead to the demise of not only the 2015 Paris
Agreement but the WTO.
Carbon
leakage occurs when the production of locally produced goods is transferred to
countries with lower carbon taxes. Global emissions increase as a result. The
proposed solution is
to tax the carbon content of imports to ensure that equivalent taxes are
paid in importing and exporting countries: a levelling of the playing field.
The members
of the European Parliament have voted to support a “carbon border adjustment
mechanism” – a carbon border tax – to place a carbon price on imports from
outside the EU … to push EU partners to raise their climate ambition and reduce
the risk of carbon leakage”, adding, “the measure will be designed to comply
with the World Trade Organisation (WTO)“.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/michael-wolff-concludes-his-trump-trilogy-with-the-best-book-yet-20210719-p58b1m
Michael Wolff concludes his Trump trilogy – with the best book yet
“Landslide”
is a cruel, unforgiving, muckraking, scandalous and unforgettable study of a
man retreating into delusion after his election defeat.
Mick Brown
Jul 21, 2021
– 8.00am
In the days
and weeks after his election
defeat in November last year, Michael Wolff writes, Donald Trump was
largely deserted by his aides and staff. “His hapless band of co-conspirators
were too crazy or drunk, or cynical to develop a credible strategy or execute
one. It was all a s--- show – ludicrous, inexplicable, cringeworthy, nutso,
even for the people who felt most loyal to him.” And so, we’re off ...
This is the
third book in as many years in what will come to be known as Wolff’s “Trump
Trilogy”, dissecting Donald Trump’s erratic, mercurial period in the White
House. Landslide focuses on the cataclysmic weeks after the election, and
Trump’s vain
attempts to overturn it. And it is the best yet.
Beginning
with what Wolff describes as “the most cursed and hapless [election] campaign
in history”, it charts the disintegration of the Trump administration, and his
increasingly desperate – not to say progressively unhinged – refusal to accept
defeat. It is a terrifying, albeit highly partisan, study of a man refusing to
grasp reality and retreating into delusion – or, as Trump and his supporters
would doubtless have it, courageously and single-handedly fighting against the
most egregious attack on American democracy.
Much of this
book dwells on the delicate and precarious business of being part of Trump’s
inner circle, jockeying for power and humouring his belief that the election
had been stolen as the votes tally rose mercilessly against him. Nobody could
read his thinking, or what he would do next: “It became logically necessary to
accord him a mind of Martian status. He was simply not like anyone else.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/indias-pandemic-death-toll-could-be-in-the-millions-20210721-p58bh1.html
India’s pandemic death toll could be in the millions
By Sheikh
Saaliq and Krutika Pathi
July 21, 2021
— 1.41am
New Delhi:
India’s excess deaths during the pandemic could be a staggering 10 times the
official COVID-19 toll, likely making it modern India’s worst human tragedy,
according to the most comprehensive research yet on the ravages of the virus in
the South Asian country.
Most experts
believe India’s official toll of more than 414,000 dead is a vast undercount,
but the government has dismissed those concerns as exaggerated and misleading.
The report
released on Tuesday estimated excess deaths – the gap between those recorded
and those that would have been expected – to be 3 million to 4.7 million
between January 2020 and June 2021. It said an accurate figure may “prove
elusive” but the true death toll “is likely to be an order of magnitude greater
than the official count”.
The report
was published by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government’s former chief
economic adviser, and two other researchers at the Centre for Global
Development, a non-profit think tank based in Washington, and Harvard
University.
It said the
count could have missed deaths that occurred in overwhelmed hospitals or while
health care was disrupted, particularly during the devastating virus surge
earlier this year.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/digital-trade-war-biden-opens-new-front-in-effort-to-contain-china-20210721-p58bmp.html
Digital trade war: Biden opens new front in effort to contain China
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior
business columnist
July 21, 2021
— 12.39pm
At last
week’s virtual APEC meeting China’s Xi Jinping made a veiled reference to the
next front in the competition with the US to dominate the 21st century economy.
In a
pre-recorded video – he didn’t attend the meeting chaired by New Zealand’s
Jacinta Ardern – China’s president said it was necessary to further develop
digital infrastructure, facilitate the dissemination and application of new
technologies and work for a digital business environment that is “open, fair
and non-discriminatory.”
That might
sound anodyne but it came in the context of efforts by the US to promote a
digital trade deal in the Indo-Pacific region that could include countries like
Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia and, perhaps,
India along with Canada and Chile.
At stake is
the nature of the rules governing digital trade and who writes them.
It’s not
surprising that China’s state media, ahead of a meeting that was attended by
Joe Biden, launched a pre-emptive strike, describing discussions about a
digital traded agreement as a bid to protect American hegemony and the profits
of its technology companies.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/an-architect-of-the-printing-money-fix-turns-into-a-qe-critic-20210722-p58bz5.html
An architect of the ‘printing money’ fix turns into a QE critic
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior
business columnist
July 22, 2021
— 12.38pm
When
quantitative easing was embarked on by the US, UK and Europe in response to the
2008 financial crisis it was generally described as “unconventional” monetary
policy.
It’s now
baked into the policy settings of most developed economies, which makes tough
questioning of the policy by a panel that includes the man who launched it in
the UK a challenge to central bankers who appear to see QE - effectively printing
more money to use to buy government bonds - as the panacea for all
financial and economic threats.
Mervyn King
was the governor of the Bank of England when it followed the US Federal Board’s
decision to launch QE in the US in late 2008 with its own purchases of UK
Treasury bonds in 2009.
Last week, a
House of Lords economics committee of which he – along with former chief
adviser to the Treasury and World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern – was a
member, issued a report, after a lengthy inquiry, which concluded that the BoE
had failed to justify the policy.
The UK
central bank, like the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the
Bank of Japan and our Reserve Bank, all stepped up their asset purchases (in
the RBA’s case, started buying bonds for the first time) in response to the
outbreak of the pandemic in March last year.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/xi-jinping-reels-in-his-tech-titans-20210722-p58bwi
Xi Jinping reels in his tech titans
Private
enterprise created China’s vaunted digital economy. But Big Brother is always
in charge.
Richard McGregor
Columnist
Jul 23, 2021
– 10.58am
For two
countries daggers drawn on everything from the South China Sea to new
technologies, the US and China had an instructive meeting of minds this month.
Days after Didi Global’s US$4.4
billion listing in New York in early July, Beijing launched a national
security investigation into the homegrown ride-hailing giant, instantly cratering
its share price.
Within weeks,
Beijing had raided the company and stationed police, intelligence, tax and
cyber officers inside its offices as part of a national security review of its
collection and handling of data.
Yes, you read
that right. Beijing hasn’t just put regulators inside the Uber of China. It has
also placed Ministry of State Security officers there, the first time a
permanent intelligence presence has been stationed inside a local tech company,
or at least announced so publicly.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/airport-echoes-with-weeping-as-hk-exodus-gathers-pace/news-story/7f7e3659da5b4b8bbc9f197ab8444f80
Airport echoes with weeping as HK exodus gathers pace
AFP
7:32PM July
23, 2021
The exodus
has begun and the evidence is clear in the departure halls of Hong Kong
airport.
Twice a day
the usually deserted check-in area fills with the sound of tearful goodbyes as
people fearful for their future under China’s increasingly authoritarian rule
start a new life overseas, mostly in Britain.
The number of
Hong Kongers flying out of the city each day has almost doubled in six months –
from about 800 early in the year to 1500 in July.
London
flights tend to leave in the afternoon and late evening. It is then that the
check-in area fills with passengers wheeling as much luggage as they are
allowed.
Most of those
leaving pause for a final hug before passing through the departure gates, the
sound of sobbing continuing long after they have disappeared from view.
Clutching his
British National Overseas passport, 43-year-old media worker Hanson said he
began making plans to leave when he saw footage of police beating democracy
supporters during protests two years ago.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-biden-can-reel-in-the-big-fish-so-can-we-20210722-p58c5k.html
If Biden can reel in the big fish, so can we
Ross Gittins
Economics
Editor
July 23, 2021
— 11.45am
In the search
for explanations of the slowdown in productivity improvement, the world’s
economists are closing in on one of the significant causes: reduced competition
between the businesses in an industry, giving them increased “market power” –
ability to raise the prices they charge.
Research by
various Treasury economists has found evidence of this happening in Australia.
And this month US President Joe Biden acted to increase competition in various
markets where it had been lacking.
A new study
by Jonathan Hambur has added to earlier research by Treasury people finding
that Australia’s private sector has shown less “dynamism” – ability to become
more economically efficient over time – during the past decade or so.
Hambur has
used a database of tax returns covering almost all Australian businesses to
find that their “mark-ups” have increased by about 5 per cent since the mid-noughties.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/perilous-moment-global-supply-chains-buckle-as-variants-and-disasters-strike-20210724-p58cjv.html
‘Perilous moment’: Global supply chains buckle as variants and disasters
strike
By Jonathan
Saul, Muyu Xu and Yilei Sun
July 24, 2021
— 11.30am
Beijing: A
new worldwide wave of COVID-19. Natural disasters in China and Germany. A cyber
attack targeting key South African ports.
Events have
conspired to drive global supply chains towards breaking point, threatening the
fragile flow of raw materials, parts and consumer goods, according to
companies, economists and shipping specialists.
The Delta variant of
the coronavirus has devastated parts of Asia and prompted many nations to cut
off land access for sailors. That’s left captains unable to rotate weary crews
and about 100,000 seafarers stranded at sea beyond their stints in a flashback
to 2020 and the height of lockdowns.
“We’re no
longer on the cusp of a second crew change crisis, we’re in one,” Guy Platten,
secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping, told Reuters.
“This is a
perilous moment for global supply chains.”
-----
I look
forward to comments on all this!
-----
David.
