October 28
2021 Edition
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The big news
in the US is that the Biden Agenda is looking more and more challenged as it
actually the fate of the Democratic majority in Congress. Very interesting
times right now.
In the UK and
Western Europe the virus would appear to be on the increase again – especially in
the UK. Boosters are on the agenda all over!
In OZ we are
seeing the PM having lost control of both the COVID19 agenda and the Climate agenda
with the Nationals running amok and causing all sorts of problems. Right now he
is not looking like winning the next Federal election due in the next few months, most especially after his presentation of the Government's Net Zero by 2050 which was frankly a total scam - or attempted scam!.
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Major Issues.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/exasperated-and-exhausted-education-sector-just-wants-a-plan-20211017-p590nd
Exasperated and exhausted, education sector just wants a plan
Julie Hare and Tess Bennett
Oct 17, 2021
– 5.08pm
The
international education sector will launch a media campaign promoting the
benefits it brings to society and the economy as the states and federal
government squabble over border and quarantine responsibilities and the
deadline for 2022 enrolments draws near.
Confusion and
anger are rising to breaking point within the higher
education sector as the federal government continues to delay any plan to
welcome back foreigners.
Last Friday’s
intervention by Prime Minister Scott Morrison following NSW Premier Dominic
Perrottet’s unexpected announcement to open the state to vaccinated tourists,
travellers and international students has pushed exasperated businesses and
education providers to the brink.
Insiders say
domestic politics is threatening to crush the once-buoyant $40 billion
international student sector with focus group research – which reveals
antipathy towards overseas students – trumping the national economic good.
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https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/lark-aims-to-be-the-penfolds-of-australian-whisky-20211018-p590tg
Lark aims to be the ‘Penfolds’ of Australian whisky
Simon Evans Senior Reporter
Oct 18, 2021
– 10.49am
Tasmanian
whisky maker Lark Distilling is aiming to be the
‘Penfolds’ of Australian whisky as it steps up an export program from 2023
after a
$40 million buyout of another Tasmanian distiller accompanied by a $53
million capital raising.
Lark managing
director Geoff Bainbridge said on Monday the acquisition of Kernke Family Shene
Estate, operator of the Pontville Distillery and Estate north of Hobart, would
allow Lark to aggressively accelerate an export drive built on the high-quality
“clean and green” provenance of Tasmanian whisky.
Lark is also
planning to spend $13 million building a new greenfields distillery on the
historic Pontville site, with a production capacity of one million litres. That
would be up and running by June 2023.
The
acquisition will bring in an extra 483,000 litres of whisky worth $24 million,
which is in the maturation stage, and alleviate a potential shortage which had
been a handbrake on Lark’s export plans.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/eroding-privacy-the-murder-of-an-mp-could-happen-in-australia-too-20211018-p590wi.html
Eroding privacy: The murder of an MP could happen in Australia too
By Rob Harris
October 19,
2021 — 5.00am
The murder of
British MP Sir David Amess while holding routine meetings with voters shouldn’t
be dismissed as a problem unique to the other side of the world. We must not
fool ourselves. It could easily happen here too.
Over the past
decade, the tone of the public debate has fallen so far that most federal MPs
and senators will readily concede they think it’s a matter of when, not if, a
similar incident occurs here.
And a key
factor in this? The erosion of the boundary between public and private life.
There is no
longer a distinction between places of work, public events, private homes or
personal time. Nor between elected officials and family members. Partisan media
commentators don’t have a problem with publishing the personal phone numbers of
MPs they don’t like on social media.
Worse, when
politicians are “egged”, the perpetrator is often held up by their critics as a
hero.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/tug-of-war-between-rba-and-economists-on-interest-rate-hike-20211019-p5914o
Economists cast doubt on RBA rate hike plans
Cecile Lefort Markets
reporter
Oct 19, 2021
– 4.00pm
Economists
and markets strongly disagree with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s firm stance
that the cash rate won’t rise before 2024, believing surging prices in housing
and energy will bring sustainable inflation back to its targeted band well
before then.
On Monday, the
inflation reading of neighbouring New Zealand overshot expectations to
reach a decade high, prompting financial markets to bring forward the RBA’s
lift-off in interest rates to mid-year next year from October 2022.
A survey by
The Australian Financial Review of 26 economists points to the RBA first
raising rates mid-2023. It would be the first increase in the cash rate in more
than a decade.
Forecasts
ranged from a move as early as November 2022 to 2024 with the magnitude of the
increase varying from 15 basis points to 40 basis points. The survey was taken
on October 15.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-common-sense-does-not-help-much-with-interest-rates-20211018-p5910j
The great interest rate debate takes another turn
Stephen
Grenville’s claim that he wants interest rates to actively be pushed up because
it is “inevitable”, is like saying we’re all going to die some day, so let’s
stop taking care of ourselves.
Richard Holden
Contributor
Oct 19, 2021
– 1.19pm
Stephen
Grenville’s article
in reply me
usefully pushes the debate about interest rates forward.
As he notes,
I consistently argued throughout 2019 that interest rates were too high,
contributing to stubbornly high unemployment and stagnant wages growth. The
Reserve Bank of Australia cut them well before COVID-19 hit.
The resulting
pick up in the economy and absence of inflation vindicates this view. RBA governor Philip Lowe,
to his great credit given he was responsible for failing to cut rates sooner,
seems to think so, too.
As Stephen
observes, there is much on which we agree.
We live in an
age of secular stagnation. Fiscal policy is a crucial tool to combat this
phenomenon. Austerity after the 2008-09 financial crisis was profoundly
unhelpful. He even clarified that monetary policy “should be set so it doesn’t
inhibit what little growth the private sector is supporting”. Since the neutral
rate is negative, this means the near-zero interest rates we currently have.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/don-t-underestimate-the-underclass-20211018-p5910c
Why you shouldn’t underestimate the underclass
They are damaged,
lacking in trust and discipline, and highly self-interested. But the poor are
still a force that Australia needs to properly harness.
Pru Goward Columnist
Oct 19, 2021
– 12.44pm
“If there is
hope, it lies in the proles.” So said one of the 20th century’s greatest
philosophers thinly disguised as a novelist, George Orwell, in
his spookily prescient work, 1984. I believe my lifelong fascination with the
underclass began when I pondered that declaration of independence against a
futuristic form of government oppression, which has turned out not to be so
futuristic.
As a
shopkeeper’s daughter, I understood poor people; they obeyed the law, worked
hard, sent their kids to the same primary schools I attended and were equally
ambitious for their children. But the underclass, small as it then was, behaved
differently.
Like the
stoats and weasels of the Wild Wood in The Wind in the Willows, yet another
English children’s book on the topic of class, they rejected the rules and
lived by their own. They were to be feared and were, to use my mother’s words,
not very nice. It took Orwell to turn the noble Marxist proletariat into the
proles.
Since the
1950s there has been a remarkable growth in the number of proles. The welfare
state is not entirely to blame, as the world of Dickens
attests. Government agencies view them with alarm as huge cost centres;
they are over-represented in their use of government crisis services and are
always the last to give up smoking, get their shots and eat two servings of
vegetables a day.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/freedom-of-speech-is-important-but-so-is-a-commitment-to-listen/news-story/f33456222786128c212fbd90c5c53227
Freedom of speech is important, but so is a commitment to listen
Tim Dodd
7:44PM
October 19, 2021
Two fine
principles – freedom of speech and its cousin, intellectual freedom – are
gaining ground in Australian universities.
Recent court
decisions have buttressed the right of two people, at opposite ends of the
political spectrum, to say what they want.
First,
there’s Peter Ridd. Although the former James Cook University physics professor
lost his case for damages against the university in the High Court last week,
the court strongly upheld his right to intellectual freedom.
Ridd is
famous for expressing his view that the Great Barrier Reef is not being damaged
by global warming or agricultural run off. His right to say this was confirmed
but he lost the case over breaches of confidentiality clauses in the
university’s code of conduct.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-tremors-from-evergrande-will-rumble-on-for-australia-20211019-p5915x
The tremors from Evergrande will rumble on for Australia
The real
estate giant’s problems will not trigger a financial crisis, but they show that
China’s economy must change, and that will have long-term implications for
Australia.
John Kehoe Economics editor
Oct 20, 2021
– 1.14pm
How serious
is the unfolding
collapse of Chinese real estate giant Evergrande Group, and what are the
implications for Australia?
Evergrande’s
unsustainable $US300 billion ($402 billion) debt load and its missed bond
repayments are posing big questions for local investors and economic
policymakers.
The
opaqueness of China’s system makes it challenging to draw firm conclusions.
The
likelihood is that Evergrande’s carefully managed demise will not trigger a
financial crisis, unless there is a serious policy misstep by Chinese
authorities, which have a long track record of deftly managing problems.
Most of
Evergrande’s debt is denominated in China’s currency. As a net exporter of
capital, China can avoid the worst consequences of foreign
creditors pulling the plug, and can choose its timetable for a domestic
debt restructuring.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-s-choice-about-china-has-been-long-in-the-making-20211021-p591us
Australia’s choice about China has been long in the making
Australian
leaders and strategic analysts have been quietly preparing for the day when
China decided to put its authoritarianism ahead of partnership.
Fergus Hanson
Oct 21, 2021
– 1.55pm
September was
a big month for Australia’s international relations.
There was AUKUS, there was the
diplomatic
tour of the Indo-Pacific by ministers Marise Payne and Peter Dutton, and in
late September there was the first in-person summit
of Quad leaders at the White House, attended by Scott Morrison.
But lost amid
all the meetings and activities and submarines has been a far more powerful
development. It is one of those inflection points that will bend the arc of
Australian history.
For nearly
three decades, Australia
experienced an unprecedented spell of economic growth, largely off the back
of China’s rise. During that period, every successive Australian PM would
confidently tell the public that Australia did not have to “choose” between its
top trading partner, China, and its most important ally, the United States. We
could have our cake and eat it too.
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https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/foreign-students-are-choosing-the-uk-and-canada-over-australia-20211021-p591wg
Foreign students are choosing the UK and Canada over Australia
Julie Hare Education editor
Oct 21, 2021
– 12.53pm
One in five
international students have changed their intentions on where to study, with
Canada and the UK capitalising on frustrations around Australia’s closed
borders, a new survey has found.
There has
been a 15 per cent decline in Australia as the preferred destination, while
interest in Canada surged 36 per cent and the UK 21 per cent.
Nearly a
third of students who had intended to study in Australia had switched their
preference to Canada, the survey by international student recruitment firm AECC Global found.
There is also
complexity around international student flows, with students from many source
countries inoculated with vaccines that are not approved by health authorities.
The survey of
7000 foreign students found that while 50 per cent had been double vaccinated,
53 per cent of Nepalese students had been jabbed with the Chinese Vero Cell
vaccine, which is not recognised by the Therapeutic Goods Administration in
Australia, or health authorities in Canada, the UK or the US.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dream-decade-that-produced-modern-australia-20211021-p591ul
The dream decade that produced modern Australia
The 1960s
were a decade of optimism during which Australia swapped the sheep’s back for
massive resources industries. Ironically, some of it was financed by an old
foe.
Oct 21, 2021
– 7.44pm
“It was
obvious long before the end of 1959 that in 1960 Australia should enter its
most exciting decade,” The Australian Financial Review quoted economist Douglas
Copland as saying a couple of years later.
But the 1960s
started with a credit squeeze from Australia’s new stand-alone central bank and
a call on International Monetary Fund reserves. The business and political
reaction was “hostile and spontaneous”, reported the Financial Review.
After
Australia’s first national newspaper went daily in October 1963, the squeeze
claimed a string of finance-related companies that had prospered outside the
Reserve Bank’s blunt bank lending controls. With Australia’s weak investor
protection exposed, the sharemarket went into sharp reverse. Robert Menzies
almost lost the 1961 election.
But Copland
was proved right. The optimistic 1960s marked the beginnings of modern,
prosperous Australia. Amid Britain’s postwar decline, development-led
prosperity was built on the biggest resources boom since the 1850s gold rush
that realigned Australia towards the Asia-Pacific and exposed its White
Australia Policy.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/revised-draft-curriculum-gets-c-must-try-harder/news-story/7e2254fa5eefc29b3c9db4a22e96f290
Revised draft curriculum gets C, must try harder
Alan Tudge
Federal Education Minister
11:00PM
October 21, 2021
I have
previously made it clear I am disappointed by the draft national curriculum
published by the independent Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting
Authority. It does not increase standards, it has a negative view of our
history and it is a ridiculously long and unwieldy document at 3500 pages. Put
simply, I would not support it.
There were
many areas in the draft where learning was delayed, not progressed. Learning
the times tables was pushed back to year 4 from year 3. In other countries it
starts in year 2. There are 20 concerns in maths alone. The peak mathematics
association expressed alarm at the draft and asked them to start again.
Evidence-based
content, such as phonics, was minimised.
The biggest
problem, though, was in the draft history curriculum. It gave the impression
nothing bad happened before 1788 and almost nothing good has happened since. It
downplayed our Western heritage. It omitted significant figures in our history
such as Menzies, Howard and Whitlam. It almost erased Christianity from our
past, despite it being the single most important influence on our modern
development, according to our greatest living historian, Geoffrey Blainey. It
introduced ridiculous concepts such as asking year 2 students – seven-year-olds
– to ask whether statues could be deemed racist.
Note – The
author is a jingoistic fool I reckon.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-cities-may-be-opening-but-australia-s-politics-are-closing-down-20211021-p59202
The cities may be opening but Australia’s politics are closing down
The
federal government remains its own Hermit Kingdom, where pledges bear no
resemblance to reality and the truth is what they say it is.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Oct 22, 2021
– 4.58pm
Australia was
dubbed the “New Hermit Kingdom” earlier this year by Washington-based
Australian journalist Amelia Lester in Foreign Policy magazine, and it’s a term
that’s been used a fair bit ever since as Australia’s international borders
have remained firmly closed as the rest of the world opened up.
We had the
official photo opportunity early on Friday morning to celebrate the opening of
the borders: the Prime Minister and NSW Premier Dominic
Perrottet beaming in an airport hangar in front of a Boeing 787 as Qantas
chief executive Alan Joyce announced the opening of international flights from
November 1.
Thousands of
stranded Australians will hopefully be able to come home, and others leave,
ahead of a broader opening allowing the return of international students,
skilled migrants and other travellers.
It was an
event to cap a generally celebratory day as Melbourne
came out of lockdown and there were more and more announcements that
domestic travel restrictions would be ending.
While the
borders may be open, it feels like Australia remains stubbornly and dangerously
closed off from the world in many other ways, like its Hermit Kingdom namesake:
a country where declarations made by our political leaders about their policy
successes and ambitions bear little resemblance to reality, where saying
something is true is somehow expected to make it so, and where democracy feels
ill-served, to say the least.
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https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/exposing-esg-s-dirty-little-secret-20211022-p5927x
Exposing ESG’s dirty little secret
ESG is
flavour of the month ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow, and this is causing
some ironic smiles among women excluded from the conversations about diversity.
Oct 22, 2021
– 6.49pm
The explosion
of interest in environment, social and governance issues ahead of the Glasgow
climate change conference is causing some ironic laughter among female fund
managers in Australia and overseas.
Katie Hudson,
one of the tiny minority of women managing some of Australia’s $3 trillion in
superannuation savings, says it is “hilarious” that the “G” in ESG essentially
involves men lecturing male-dominated boards about issues such as gender diversity.
“We bang on
to the companies that we invest in about diversity and the appalling job boards
are doing,” says Hudson, who is a portfolio manager at Yarra Capital
Management.
“They are
told: ‘You don’t have enough diversity on your board or in management’ – and
this always comes from three male fund managers sitting opposite them. I just
love the irony.”
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/how-fundies-are-prepping-equity-portfolios-for-rise-in-inflation-20211019-p591cj
How fundies are prepping equity portfolios for rise in inflation
Professional
investors are tilting towards domestic cyclicals and away from sectors of the
market more sensitive to movements in bond yields.
William McInnes
Reporter
Oct 22, 2021
– 5.00am
T here’s one
word on investors’ lips at the moment: inflation. Supply chain issues and
shortages of key commodities during the reopening of the global economy have
caused price spikes in everything from energy, industrial metals and lumber to
food, agricultural goods and used cars.
Despite
repeatedly being told by central bankers that inflation would be a transitory
phenomenon, investors now face the proposition that consumer and production
prices will remain high for some time.
While the
large spikes in monthly and quarterly consumer price indices are unsustainable,
professional investors predict inflation won’t be a passing phenomenon and is
likely to be elevated through at least the next few months if not the next
year.
“There is no
denying it, every conversation at the moment between professional investors
basically starts and ends with inflation,” says Andrew Mitchell, senior
portfolio manager at Ophir Asset Management.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leaps-tall-stories-in-a-single-bound-a-government-with-plenty-of-front-less-substance-20211022-p592ae.html
Leaps tall stories in a single bound: a government with plenty of front,
less substance
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
October 23,
2021 — 6.21am
In one vital
area after another, the Morrison government doesn’t so much produce policy as
talking points. The government’s policies in some of the most fundamental areas
of national responsibility have an outward appearance of sturdy solidity. But
when you get up close and prod them, they are actually quite insubstantial.
Less core
policy and more corflute, those corrugated plastic signboards favoured by
politicians and real estate agents. You know the ones. They present a nice
facade, but they last only as long as the electioneering effort or the sales
campaign.
“The sign
industry loves it because it’s cheap and easy to cut to size,” is how the Perth
Graphics Centre explains the beauty of corflute. These are the very reasons
that the Morrison government favours it.
Five areas
are especially relevant just now. This week the most prominent has been climate
policy, closely followed by the drive for a national anti-corruption body.
More details
of the Morrison-Joyce climate policy will emerge over the next few days. But
the government’s position on the two key threshold dates – 2030 and 2050 - now
seem firm. Its achievement is that has decided to formalise a commitment for
Australia to emit net zero greenhouse gases by 2050. But on the more urgent
question of 2030, Morrison has made it clear that he will not revise
Australia’s existing pledge. That is, the Abbott-era promise to cut emissions
by 26 to 28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/sinking-feeling-as-submarine-shambles-dives-to-a-new-low/news-story/20c56d8c919c64ad7af31c6e4e2a538e
Sinking feeling as submarine shambles dives to a new low
Greg Sheridan
11:00PM
October 22, 2021
Crucial
testimony to Senate committees, plus parliamentary answers to questions, have
gone substantially unreported but tell us one terrible truth – Australia is
going to be completely unprepared militarily for any maritime security
challenge in the next two decades, without any upgraded submarine capability
and more completely reliant on the US than ever before.
As the
government testimony unintentionally makes clear, the real weight of the AUKUS
announcements has been to abolish Australia’s future submarine program and to
effectively abolish, or at least radically diminish, our naval shipbuilding
industry.
That this has
effectively passed without comment is a sign of the shallow, debased nature of
our national debate.
Our politics
now deals overwhelmingly in symbols, the more distant the better
Australian
defence policy now resembles a speculative mining stock at the height of a
minerals boom. Whatever you do, don’t drill, was the speculator’s mantra. As
soon as you drill, you destroy share value.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/how-to-make-sure-youre-financially-ready-for-the-looming-great-resignation/news-story/22e16fd90b15309991e5f0ae8dac468b
How to make sure you’re financially ready for the looming ‘Great
Resignation’
By James
Gerrard
7:20PM
October 22, 2021
Although
lockdown restrictions are easing around the country, CBD office blocks remain
relatively deserted. Corporates have not rushed back to the city – partly due
to the end of year approaching and partly because many employees are
comfortable and productive working remotely.
Meanwhile in
the US, a phenomenon coined as “the Great Resignation” is occurring with a
record 4.27 million Americans quitting their jobs in August – a record for the
American market.
The ability
to work from home for months has allowed people to rethink their priorities and
make job and career decisions to achieve a greater work/life balance.
Although we
have not seen this yet in Australia, as corporations transition their staff
back into the office, this is tipped to be the breaking point.
New research
from Microsoft suggests 40 per cent of global workers are actively considering
giving up their jobs in the year ahead.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/bondholders-risk-2-6trn-hit-on-even-a-modest-yield-rise-20211024-p592l4
Bondholders risk $2.6trn hit on even a modest yield rise
Liz Capo
McCormick and Anchalee Worrachate
Oct 24, 2021
– 7.47am
After a wild week on Wall Street
that saw inflation expectations reach decade highs, portfolio managers are
staring down an ever-more dangerous prospect: A modest rise in yields that
inflicts trillions of dollars in losses.
It’s a result
of investors’ exposure to duration, a key gauge of risk for bondholders that’s
near record highs. Even a half-percentage point jump in yields from here, to
roughly the pre-pandemic average in 2019, would be enough to ravage funds of
all stripes. It’s a threat with implications across asset classes, from
emerging markets to high-flying tech shares.
This scenario
is staring investors in the face after 10-year US Treasury yields bumped up
against their peak levels of 2021 this week amid wagers the Federal Reserve
will start lifting borrowing costs next year.
The potential
for steep losses is a legacy of the tilt toward longer-term borrowing during
the era of historically low rates. The higher duration is, the larger the drop
in prices for each notch up in yields. And it’s not just the US: The risk is
global as inflation threats have induced many central banks to turn hawkish.
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https://www.afr.com/property/residential/apartment-upgraders-pain-as-house-prices-soar-20211020-p591gt
Upgrading from unit to house has never been more expensive
Nila Sweeney Reporter
Oct 22, 2021
– 10.06am
Apartment
owners upgrading to detached homes are being forced to dig deeper into their
pockets as the premium for houses over units blows out to a record high
nationwide because of strong demand and low supply, analysis by CoreLogic
shows.
The price gap
between Sydney
houses and apartments has now widened to 59 per cent – up from 54.2 per
cent in July. This comes after house prices jumped by 28.9 per cent in the 12
months to September – more than double the 11.6 per cent gain in unit values.
At 59 per
cent, or $486,781, the gap between what it costs to buy a median house compared
with a median apartment has never been wider in Sydney. Other capital cities
are also seeing record gaps.
The growing
gap has been a challenge for apartment owners such as Monique Channells-Baker
and Scott Baker who have been looking to upsize to a house for the past five
months.
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Coronavirus And Impacts.
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https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/beware-workers-are-about-to-pivot-with-their-feet-20211018-p590xu
Beware, workers are about to pivot with their feet
The workplace
is going through a Great Realignment because of the pandemic, which has made
many employees rethink what their jobs mean to them.
Kirstin
Ferguson
Oct 18, 2021
– 5.29pm
Australian
boardrooms and business leaders appear to be watching, and waiting, for the
Great Resignation to hit.
This
phenomenon, predicted by A&M University Texas Associate Professor Anthony
Klotz, has already led to record “quit rates” among US employees, and, experts
say this inevitable wave of resignations is due to appear in Australia in March
2022.
Research released
last month suggested 40 per cent of Australians are thinking about leaving
their jobs in the next 12 months. As we emerge from the pandemic, is the Great Resignation
yet another workplace disruption we need to deal with?
I believe the
answer is no. Or at least, not yet. What we are experiencing is what I call the
Great Realignment.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/coronavirus-russia-hospitals-on-brink-with-1000-deaths-a-day/news-story/cb40f8e3aac5269173aea98af4b48906
Coronavirus: Russia hospitals on brink with 1000 deaths a day
By Marc
Bennetts
The Times
12:15PM
October 18, 2021
Russia has
reported more than 1,000 daily coronavirus deaths for the first time and one
prominent doctor said that the situation was close to critical.
On Saturday
the national coronavirus centre said that 1,002 people had died in 24 hours.
Yesterday another 997 daily deaths were reported, bringing the official death
toll since the start of the pandemic to more than 223,000, the most in Europe.
The Kremlin
has blamed the increase in deaths on the sluggish take-up of vaccines,
including the Sputnik V jab. Only a third of Russia’s population of 147 million
people have been fully inoculated against Covid-19. There has been widespread
mistrust of vaccines that has been fuelled by social media.
Although
Russia is reporting fewer cases per million people than the UK, it is
experiencing about seven times as many deaths every day despite a population
that is only twice as large.
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https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/What-we-know-about-AY-4-2-a-delta-subvariant-16544024.php
What we know about AY.4.2, a delta subvariant that's spiking cases in the
U.K.
Kellie Hwang
Oct. 18,
2021Updated: Oct. 19, 2021 6:42 p.m.
The delta
variant is still the overwhelmingly dominant coronavirus strain in California
and the
U.S., but one of its descendants is starting to gain traction overseas.
Known as
AY.4.2, it’s on the rise in the United Kingdom. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former U.S.
Food and Drug Administration commissioner, in a
tweet Sunday noted that it now accounts for 8% of sequenced coronavirus
cases in that country and said “urgent research” is needed.
“There’s no
clear indication that it’s considerably more transmissible, but we should work
to more quickly characterize these and other new variants,” he said.
He and other
experts, including in the Bay Area, are keeping an eye on AY.4.2 — an
offshoot of AY.4, which itself is an offshoot of the main “parent” delta variant.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/britain-s-nhs-sounds-covid-19-alarm-but-government-unmoved-20211020-p591r7
Britain snaps up antiviral drugs as NHS sounds COVID-19 alarm
Hans van Leeuwen
Europe correspondent
Updated Oct
21, 2021 – 4.05am, first published at Oct 20, 2021 – 8.21pm
London | The
British government has spurned calls to reintroduce COVID-19 restrictions,
instead doubling down on vaccines and antivirals to stem a new coronavirus surge,
even as senior health officials warn of an impending crisis in hospitals.
Health
Secretary Sajid Javid on Wednesday (Thursday AEDT) said Britain’s “first line
of defence” was still vaccination and antiviral drugs, revealing that the
government had signed deals for 730,000 doses of new antivirals.
He admitted
hospitals were coming under pressure, and vowed to “do what it takes to make
sure that this pressure doesn’t become unsustainable, and that we don’t allow
the NHS to become overwhelmed”.
But he said
the government “won’t be implementing our Plan B of contingency measures at
this point”.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/fading-vaccine-immunity-threatens-britain-s-covid-co-existence-freedoms-20211021-p591so.html
Fading vaccine immunity threatens Britain’s restriction-free co-existence
with COVID-19
By Bevan Shields
October 21,
2021 — 7.07am
London:
Fading vaccine immunity is fuelling a spike in coronavirus cases in Britain,
with the country’s early rollout success now working against it.
Weeks from
the onset of winter, infection and hospitalisation rates in the United Kingdom
are more than six times higher than large nations in Europe, while the death
rate is three times greater.
The “unusual
and slightly worrying” situation looms as a test of the government’s
determination to live with the virus and keep the economy and society
functioning as normal. It will also be closely monitored by other countries
which started their inoculation programs much later than the UK and might soon
encounter their own waning immunity complications.
New cases hit
44,000 on Wednesday - up 16 per cent on the previous week. Most were detected
in children and younger adults.
-----
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-mix-and-match-benefits-of-an-mrna-second-dose
COVID-19 vaccine ‘mix and match:’ Benefits of an mRNA second dose
Ben
Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images
A nationwide
cohort study in Sweden has shown ‘mixing and matching’ vaccines is safe, just
as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved a mix and match approach
for booster shots in the United States.
·
Study shows that having an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine
dose after an Oxford-AstraZeneca dose offers better protection against
infection than two doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca.
·
Until now, scientists have not known whether
‘mixing and matching’ vaccines offers the same or better protection than
receiving two doses of the same vaccine.
·
One of the most impressive scientific
developments to come out of the COVID-19 pandemic was the development of
effective vaccines in less than a year.
·
Some of these vaccines, produced by Pfizer
and Moderna,
used mRNA
vaccine technology for the first time. They have potentially laid the path
for further
vaccine development.
Others, such
as Oxford-AstraZeneca,
Johnson
& Johnson, and Sputnik,
have developed vaccines using more traditional viral
vector vaccine technology to protect against the virus.
The discovery
of the small
risk of thromboembolism from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, alongside variation
in vaccine availability, meant that some people have had to receive a different
type of vaccine for their first and second dose.
-----
Climate Change.
-----
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/the-coalition-is-safeguarding-emissions-20211017-p590m3
The Coalition is safeguarding emissions
Grant Wilson Contributor
Oct 17, 2021
– 9.00am
The prickly
response of Angus Taylor, Minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions
Reduction, to the Business
Council of Australia’s abrupt support of a Net Zero emissions economy by
2050 last week was revealing in one key respect. The BCA made fully 63
recommendations, yet it was the proposed reform of the Safeguard Mechanism,
which forms part of the Emissions Reduction Fund or ERF, that riled Mr Taylor
most of all.
Speaking at this
newspaper’s Energy and Climate Summit he said that “a substantial
tightening of the Safeguard Mechanism is a backdoor carbon tax consumers will
ultimately have to pay for, and that’s not acceptable".
Mr Taylor’s
comments are best interpreted through the prism of the Coalition’s long
standing neglect of climate policy. This dates as far back as the Kyoto
negotiations of 1997, when Robert Hill, then Minister for Environment, held the
talks hostage by insisting that Australia could expand emissions by 8 per cent
through the commitment period of 2008 to 2012, and by what became known as the
‘Australia clause’, where our baseline in 1990 was inflated by the inclusion of
land clearing.
He was feted
by party colleagues, most notably John Howard, Prime Minister, on his return to
Canberra.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australian-farmers-don-t-want-another-sleazy-climate-deal-20211014-p58zwi
Australian farmers don’t want another sleazy climate deal
The peak
farm lobby says that instead of just locking up private farmland to meet
emissions targets, landholders must be rewarded for all the benefits of carbon
projects.
Fiona Simson Contributor
Oct 17, 2021
– 3.01pm
Emission
Reduction Minister Angus
Taylor is talking up “technology, not taxes” and “carrots, not sticks”. We
agree.
In August
last year, the National Farmers’ Federation declared its support for an
economy-wide aspiration of net zero by 2050. Our backing was subject to finding
a pathway that was just, and supported those most exposed by the shift.
We support
this fair and measured transition to net zero, because the alternatives are
grim.
Farmers have
always stood at the front line of Australia’s cruel climate, and many believe
they are already seeing that climate change.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/pandemic-and-climate-add-up-to-a-big-shock-for-global-recovery-20211014-p58zwg
Pandemic and climate add up to a big shock for global recovery
Labour
shortages, supply chain blockages and the energy price crunch create conditions
ripe for an inflationary spiral and a return to higher interest rates.
Alexander Downer
Columnist
Oct 17, 2021
– 12.40pm
A few years
ago the then Treasury secretary and I were discussing Malcolm Turnbull’s plan
to increase the GST to 15 per cent and cut income taxes. He told me the
Treasury economic model showed that such a controversial change to the tax
system would have a negligible effect on the nation’s GDP.
You can
understand why Turnbull dropped the plan. When the Treasury’s model was
publicised it would have been ridiculed by opponents of the plan, not least the
opposition. The Treasury model would have been devastating evidence in the
court of public opinion.
I thought the
model’s conclusions we’re counter-intuitive, and so did the secretary. He
argued that ultimately economic judgments need a heavy dose of intuition, not
just cold, passion-less models.
Which brings
me to the here and now.
The models,
the central banks, the treasuries of Western countries and the IMF are all
telling us the
global economy is recovering from the COVID-19 recession, and politicians
tell us they’re going to “build back better”.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/nuclear-power-back-on-the-agenda-for-cop26/news-story/56374a1c84ff313aa9ae8f1143ff3f38
Nuclear power back on the agenda for COP26
James Kirby
6:14PM
October 18, 2021
An
increasingly desperate search for industrial strength alternatives to coal and
oil in the lead up to the Glasgow COP26 climate conference is rapidly changing
the outlook for uranium.
Australian
uranium miners have bounded ahead this year on the back of what might have been
another passing burst of enthusiasm for the raw material that powers nuclear
reactors.
But inside
the last month a remarkable convergence of new commitments and recommitments to
nuclear energy is extending investor interest in what had become a marginal
commodity. Australia has roughly a third of the world’s uranium, but local
interest in “yellowcake” had waned along with softer international demand since
the Fukushima nuclear power plant explosion in Japan a decade ago.
Some
professional investors see uranium as a re-emerging potential power source in
the rush to decarbonisation.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/cop26-is-the-real-thing-and-not-a-drill-20211020-p591ja
COP26 is the real thing and not a drill
While there
seems to be a clear path towards a zero-emissions energy economy, it is a
really difficult one. It is hard technically and even harder politically.
Martin Wolf
Columnist
Oct 20, 2021
– 11.06am
The latest
report from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change confirms that human activities are having a
profound effect on the climate. But, more happily, the International Energy
Agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2021 shows that we know what to do about
it, in substantial detail and at an affordable cost.
Yet we are
not doing what we should do and so emissions continue to rise. Will that change
at COP26 in Glasgow? I doubt it.
It is no
longer necessary to debate the science of anthropogenic climate change. What is
essential, instead, is to focus on what needs to be done now. On this, the WEO
2021 is perfectly clear.
It
distinguishes four scenarios: “stated policies” (STEPS), which consists of the
actual policies of governments; “announced pledges” (APS), which assumes all of
their pledges will be met in full and on time; “sustainable development” (SDS),
which are the UN’s sustainable development targets; and, lastly, “net zero
emissions by 2050″ (NZE), which is just what it says it is.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-could-have-done-the-deal-of-the-century-on-climate-but-opted-for-tribalism-20211022-p592ac.html
Morrison could have done the deal of the century on climate, but opted for
tribalism
George Megalogenis
Columnist
October 23,
2021 — 5.00am
Joe Biden and
Scott Morrison will never really agree on climate change. It is an urgent
passion project for the US President, while the Australian Prime Minister has
always seen it as a political issue to exploit, or avoid, depending on the
electoral balance between the cities and the regions at any given point in
time.
The irony for
the two leaders is they finally found common ground this week in the gridlock
of their respective parliaments.
Biden, like
Morrison, has left his policy run to Glasgow until the last possible moment.
Both men are negotiating with the conservative fringe of their governing
parties on terms that risk undermining their position at the United Nations
climate conference which kicks off on October 31.
Biden’s
unfinished business is his plan to expand the US social safety net. Among the
proposals is a $US150 billion ($200 billion) fund for clean energy projects. Democract senator Joe
Manchin, from the coal mining state of West Virginia, declared last week
that the spending was not needed, and he didn’t want his constituents to foot the
bill. Manchin, along with Democrat Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, want to reduce
the total cost of the $US3.5 trillion package by as much as half. Biden has
suggested he would be happy with a deal worth up to $US1.9 trillion, which
preserves his reform agenda for education and health and gives him something on
climate change to take to Glasgow.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/deloitte-access-economics-study-finds-australia-can-save-half-a-trillion-dollars-by-moving-to-electric-cars/news-story/e7dfc68b3baecba78e9728820113c4ef
Deloitte Access Economics study finds Australia can save half a trillion
dollars by moving to electric cars
Joe Hildebrand
News Corp
Australia Network
October 23,
2021
Exclusive:
Australia could save almost half a trillion dollars in costs associated with
pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and noise if it moved to 100 per cent
electric vehicles over the next 15 years, a new report has found.
The study by
accounting giant Deloitte Access Economics has attempted to quantify the costs
associated with regular patrol and diesel powered vehicles — such as increased
respiratory disease from pollution or the economic cost of carbon emissions —
and measure it against the uptake of electric cars, buses and trucks.
The research,
commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, projected a total cost
of $864.9 billion from 2022 to 2050, comprising $488 billion in costs from air
pollution, $205 billion from greenhouse emissions, $95 billion from noise and
$76 billion from water pollution.
Under the
most bullish scenario, of 100 per cent electric vehicles by 2035, it predicted
savings of $492 billion.
Under the
second most aggressive scenario, in which all states adopt NSW’s target of all
government cars and buses to be electric by 2030 and with an overall net zero
target of 2045, the savings would be $335 billion.
-----
Royal Commissions And The Like.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/how-to-find-the-best-aged-care-home-20211015-p590gq
How to find the best aged care home
Don’t
leave it to chance but check how the provider rates on quality and safety.
Price alone is not the best indicator.
Louise Biti Contributor
Oct 18, 2021
– 5.00am
When selecting
a residential aged care service, one of the first considerations for most
people is cost. Financial affordability is important, but evaluating whether it
is the right place for you or for your loved one involves a more complex set of
decisions.
The royal
commission and stories in the media identified cases where residents had
bad experiences and care did not meet expectations. In some serious cases,
abuse occurred. While most residents don’t experience such dramatically bad
situations, families worry about whether they have made a good decision when
choosing an aged care place.
A higher room
price does not guarantee better care; it is just the price for that room. There
is no direct correlation between the two. So how can you research and check the
performance of a particular provider?
Ratings and
compliance reviews
The
government has set eight quality standards that care providers need to meet.
Compliance is monitored by the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission.
-----
National Budget Issues.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/scott-morrison-s-budget-report-card-could-do-a-hell-of-a-lot-better-20211021-p59251.html
Scott Morrison’s budget report card: could do a hell of a lot better
Ross Gittins
Economics
Editor
October 22,
2021 — 11.35am
When it comes
to the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two main parties, polling shows
voters’ views are highly stereotyped. For instance, the Liberals, being the
party of business, are always better than Labor at handling money, including
the budget. But this hardly seems to fit the performance of Scott Morrison and
his Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg.
Dr Mike Keating,
former top econocrat and a former secretary of the Department of Finance, has
delivered a two-part
report
card in John Menadue’s online public policy journal.
His overall
assessment is that the Morrison government is guilty of underfunding essential
government services on the one hand, and, on the other, wasting billions on
politically high-profile projects.
Keating
traces these failures to two sources. First, the government’s undying
commitment to Smaller Government, but unwillingness to bring this about by making
big cuts in major spending programs, such as defence, age pensions or Medicare.
-----
Health Issues.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nsw-to-set-up-96m-mrna-pilot-plant/news-story/d37ded0e71c2d4d3790d464b780e0d21
NSW to set up $96m mRNA pilot plant
Natasha Robinson
11:00PM
October 20, 2021
The NSW
government has moved to establish the nation’s first mRNA pilot manufacturing
facility, partnering with universities on research and development of new
vaccines and drugs.
The $96m
facility will be designed to create and trial new mRNA vaccines and therapies
and conduct early manufacture.
“We are the
first state in Australia to deliver a pilot manufacturing facility to spearhead
the establishment of a local RNA industry,” NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet said.
“The Covid
pandemic has demonstrated to the world that it is critically important that we
have the capability to develop vaccines quickly and for our country to have
sovereign capability.
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/evergrande-dilemma-has-repercussions-far-beyond-china-20211017-p590o1
Evergrande dilemma has repercussions far beyond China
Beijing
could let the property behemoth go bankrupt, but that risks shockwaves at home
and abroad.
Kevin Rudd Former
Australian prime minister
Oct 17, 2021
– 1.20pm
Since coming
to power, Chinese President Xi Jinping has had to deal with three overriding priorities.
First, a domestic
economy that is slowing and increasingly unequal. Second, an adversarial
geopolitical environment, resulting largely from Xi’s own quest to change the
regional and global status quo. And, most importantly, making sure he secures a
third term at the Chinese Communist Party’s key 20th Party Congress next year.
Enter Evergrande
and its growing list of missed bond payments. This behemoth, with $US300
billion ($404 billion) in leverage, lies at the centre of a property sector
that represents 29 per cent of Chinese gross domestic product and is more than
$US5 trillion in debt. Forty-one per cent of the Chinese banking system’s
assets are associated with the property sector, and 78 per cent of the invested
wealth of urban Chinese is in housing. Given the millions of creditors,
shareholders, bondholders and (unbuilt) apartment owners, Evergrande has become
a problem for Xi politically, economically and globally.
On the
domestic front, an increasingly redistributionist approach to economic policy
means neither billionaires nor housing market speculation are tolerated as they
used to be. Moves to prop up Evergrande fit uneasily within Xi’s “common
prosperity” campaign.
Internationally,
Xi wishes to avoid any perception of economic weakness or political distraction,
let alone the idea that China could be heading towards a situation similar
to that which crippled the US housing market during the 2008 financial crisis.
The Communist Party has sought to enhance its domestic credibility by claiming
China has a more sophisticated system for dealing with crises, pandemic or
economic, than the West.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-struggles-to-balance-green-goals-with-keeping-lights-on-20211017-p590n6
China struggles to balance green goals with keeping lights on
The
world’s second-largest economy is consuming far more electricity than expected
to keep its factories running as businesses rebound from the pandemic.
Bai Yujie,
Luo Guoping, Chen Xuewan and Han Wei
Oct 17, 2021
– 1.07pm
The massive
power crunch darkening businesses and homes in many parts of China throws into
sharp relief the struggle of the world’s largest coal burner to balance its
ambitious goal of slashing greenhouse gas emissions with its appetite for
energy to power the economy.
The world’s
second-largest economy is consuming far more electricity than expected to keep
its factories running as businesses rebound from the pandemic.
But
production of coal – the main fuel for generating electricity in China – is
slowing under the government’s green transition policy to fight climate change
by achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Nearly 70 per
cent of China’s electricity comes from burning coal, which spews into the
atmosphere tonnes and tonnes of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas causing
global warming. Power generation accounts for 53 per cent of the country’s coal
consumption.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-s-energy-crisis-threatens-long-disruption-to-global-supply-chain-20211017-p590oi
China’s energy crisis threatens long disruption to global supply chain
Primrose
Riordan, Edward White and Harry Dempsey
Oct 17, 2021
– 2.32pm
Hong
Kong/Seoul/London | Factory owners in China and their customers worldwide have
been told to prepare for power supply disruptions becoming part of life as
President Xi Jinping doggedly weans the world’s second-biggest economy off its
dependence on coal.
Months of
shortages have cut power to households in China’s north-east and caused
outages at factories across the country. But energy demand is still surging
amid record demand for Chinese exports, and the problems will be compounded by
the prospect of freezing temperatures in winter.
Despite a
flurry of central government interventions, spearheaded by premier Li Keqiang,
Chinese manufacturers and multinationals alike have been urged to boost energy
efficiency in their factories and speed up investment in renewable energy.
Trueanalog
Strictly OEM, a factory producing loudspeakers near Guangzhou, is emblematic of
the crunch already hitting exporters from frequent outages. Owner Philip
Richardson said his company was stuck “playing catch-up”.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/supply-chain-lessons-from-long-beach-20211018-p590u8
Supply chain lessons from Long Beach
One of the
best things that we could do to avoid port pile-ups in the future is to ensure
that no more than 25 per cent of any crucial supply be sourced from one place,
or come into one port.
Rana Foroohar
Contributor
Oct 18, 2021
– 10.28am
I know you’re
hearing a lot about something called ‘supply chains’,” said US President Joe
Biden last week, in a speech
explaining to Americans why their sneakers, toasters, bicycles and bedroom
furniture were taking so much longer to get to them these days.
It is highly
unusual for the leader of the free world to spend so much time talking about
logistics and value chains to the general public. But this is an unusual
moment, in which supply-chain snags and labour squeezes have resulted in port
backups for weeks or even months not only in the US, but the UK, Europe and
many other places around the world.
Much of it is
down to the COVID-19 pandemic, of course, and the asynchronous national
recovery cycles that have led to a mismatch between supply and demand for
various products. Those cycles should eventually smooth out as the virus
abates. But port disruptions have shed light on bigger problems in the global
economy, from incompatibilities of skills and jobs, to an over-reliance on
China as the provider of any number of crucial goods.
The Los
Angeles and Long Beach port backups have quickly become a major political issue
in the US, given that they represent 40 per cent of the country’s entire cargo
shipping imports. But many people are taking the wrong lessons — that dock
workers cannot be found because of government stimulus cheques providing a
disincentive to work, or that we are headed back to a decade of stagflation, or
that the trade landscape will end up looking either like the laissez-faire
1990s or the beggar-thy-neighbour 1930s. I doubt any of that will turn out to
be true, but there are several different, better lessons to be learnt from the
current troubles.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-puts-us-on-back-foot-with-game-changing-hypersonic-missile-test-20211018-p590rn.html
China puts US on back foot with ‘game-changing’ hypersonic missile test
By Louise
Watt and Marcus Parekh
October 18,
2021 — 8.00am
Taipei:
China’s test of a hypersonic missile in space is a “game-changer” that should
fundamentally alter the US’s calculations about Beijing’s military leverage,
experts have warned.
Over the
weekend, it emerged that the Chinese military in August secretly launched a
rocket carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle into space, which flew around the
globe in a low-Earth orbit before returning to China.
While the
missile reportedly missed its target by about 40 kilometres, the test shows
China has made rapid progress on the lightning-fast weapons and is far more
advanced than US intelligence had realised, according to the Financial Times,
which broke the story.
“We have no
idea how they did this,” the FT quoted one official as saying.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-murder-of-sir-david-amess-will-change-the-nature-of-british-democracy/news-story/59326399a5fc50b8197e5a5d247eca65
The murder of Sir David Amess will change the nature of British democracy
The Economist
6:04PM October
17, 2021
Sir David
Amess was the quintessential British local MP. When party whips whispered that
he might become a minister if he voted the right way, he laughed.
When his
invitation to the Leigh Duck Race, where the local scout group ceremonially released
hundreds of rubber ducks, went missing, his staff turned his office upside
down.
His
relentless campaign to have Southend-on-Sea, the town in his constituency,
recognised as a city is the stuff of parliamentary legend.
It was while
attending a constituency surgery, where MPs meet locals to hear their problems,
that he was stabbed to death on October 15, in an apparent Islamist terrorist
attack.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/economists-must-weigh-the-risk-of-raising-interest-rates-too-early-20211018-p590y1
Economists must weigh the risk of raising interest rates too early
Whether
the looming inflation problem is temporary or long term, making hasty monetary
policy decisions will only increase the pain.
Paul Krugman
Oct 18, 2021
– 3.48pm
What’s
happening to inflation in the United States?
We know, of
course, what the numbers say: inflation is high right now, although not 1970s
high. But is this a blip or the beginning of a longer-term problem? Economists
are deeply divided.
I’m basically
for the former, on what has come to be known as Team Transitory, but I might be
wrong - and the data are sufficiently ambiguous that both sides can claim that
the evidence supports their take.
Yet
policymakers can’t just shrug their shoulders; they have to make policy. So
what should they do in the face of uncertainty? The answer, I would argue, is
to make decisions that won’t do too much damage if their preferred take on
inflation is wrong.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/purges-a-plot-and-the-real-reason-why-xi-jinping-might-be-afraid-to-leave-china-20211018-p590x4.html
Purges, a plot and the real reason why Xi Jinping might be afraid to leave
China
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
October 19,
2021 — 5.30am
It’s hard to
see into the Chinese Communist Party’s politics. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t
have any. Only that they’re well concealed. But every now and then, the careful
stage management slips and the red curtain twitches aside unexpectedly. We’ve
been treated to a few revealing moments in the past few weeks.
President Xi
Jinping projects an air of serene imperial command. He has the most
comprehensive grip on power of any Chinese president since Mao, many
sinologists tell us, as he prepares to enter a third five-year term.
But it seems
that not all of the courtiers are as submissive as they appear to be, and Xi
not quite as calm. Or, as the Lowy Institute’s Richard
McGregor puts it: “We have election season; China has selection season, and
we are moving into that now.
“Xi has a ton
of enemies to handle. He can’t just coast into a third term on the basis of his
personality cult.” Foreign media sometimes describe him as president for life.
But while he removed the two-term limit on the presidency, he still needs party
approval to win a third term when the Party Congress meets next October.
Sensationally,
Xi has moved decisively against two of the topmost officials responsible for
China’s internal security, a serving and a former vice-minister of public
security, in less than a week.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/former-us-secretary-of-state-colin-powell-dies-of-covid19-complications-aged-84/news-story/94de1212d0764de3928c9ca10128cfa7
Former US Secretary of State Colin Powell dies of Covid-19 complications,
aged 84
By Jessica
Donati
The Wall
Street Journal
October 19,
2021
Colin Powell,
who as a retired four-star general and former White House national security
adviser went on to serve as the first Black secretary of state, has died at 84.
His family
cited Covid-19 complications in a statement on Facebook.
The statement
said Mr Powell died Monday, and that he had been fully vaccinated. The
statement thanked physicians and staff members at Walter Reed National Military
Medical Center for the treatment he received there.
Mr Powell had
been undergoing treatment for a type of blood cancer, said his longtime aide,
Peggy Cifrino. “He was being treated successfully for multiple myeloma for the
past few years,” she said. That type of cancer is known to weaken the immune system.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/n-korea-test-fires-submarine-launched-ballistic-missile-20211019-p591do
N Korea test fires submarine-launched ballistic missile
Josh Smith
and Hyonhee Shin
Oct 19, 2021
– 6.35pm
Seoul | North
Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from off its east
coast on Tuesday, South Korea’s military says, pulling Japan’s new prime
minister off the campaign trail and overshadowing the opening of a major arms
fair in Seoul.
The launch,
reported by officials in South Korea and Japan, came after US and South Korean
envoys met in Washington to discuss the nuclear stand-off with North Korea on
Monday. Spy chiefs from the United States, South Korea and Japan were reported
to be meeting in Seoul on Tuesday as well.
The North
Korean launch would be the latest weapons test by the country, which has
pressed ahead with military development in the face of international sanctions
imposed over its nuclear weapons and missile programs.
The missile
was launched from the sea around Sinpo, where North Korea keeps submarines as
well as equipment for test-firing SLBMs, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff
said.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/is-brexit-hurting-the-uk-economy-trade-data-flashes-a-warning/news-story/c0740ee7515148897b9c361eccf3cd05
Is Brexit hurting the UK? Trade data flashes a warning
The global
upswing in trade is leaving Britain behind, drowning in reams of paperwork and
ballooning costs, in an early sign of the challenge Brexit is presenting its
economy.
By Jason
Douglas
From Dow
Jones
October 20,
2021
The global
upswing in trade is leaving the UK behind, an early sign of the challenge
Brexit is presenting its economy.
Britain
formally began its new relationship with the EU on January 1. Before then, and
before the Covid-19 pandemic upended world trade, Jason Wouhra’s food wholesale
business in England’s West Midlands, Lioncroft Wholesale, generated up to a
quarter of its annual revenue from customers in Spain, Portugal and other
markets in the EU.
Lioncroft has
now stopped exporting to the EU altogether. Sending 300 products to the EU
before Brexit was as easy as moving goods within the UK. Now, Mr Wouhra said, he
would have to pay thousands of dollars to hire a customs agent to assemble the
correct information for products to clear customs, and more to actually ship
them. “Your profitability is knocked out the window straight away,” he said.
Leaving the
EU has put the UK outside the EU’s vast internal market of 445 million
consumers and a customs territory that is bigger still, stretching from the
Atlantic to Turkey. It is hobbling trade just as its economy needs all its
engines firing to power out of its worst downturn in a century.
For British
businesses, the shift means reams of paperwork and ballooning costs. Trade with
the EU accounts for about half of all British exports.
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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/the-dying-days-of-china-s-economic-miracle-20211020-p591la
The dying days of China’s economic miracle
After
decades of unbridled growth, China is heading into a new era of moderate
expansion as a property debt crisis and crippling energy shortages converge at
a time of enormous policy uncertainty.
Michael Smith China
correspondent
Oct 22, 2021
– 12.33pm
Fifteen
skyscrapers explode simultaneously in a destructive cloud of smoke.
The video footage
of a mass demolition project in a city in China’s Yunnan province released by
state media last month is oddly compelling. The scale of the choreographed
destruction as thousands of tonnes of concrete and steel collapse slowly into
the ground is impressive, but it also symbolises the emerging fault lines in
the world’s second-largest economy.
The tens of
thousands of half-completed apartments reportedly stood empty for seven years
and were destroyed before anyone moved in. They formed one of the country’s
many so-called “ghost cities”, representing bloated infrastructure investment
in a period when growth and wealth creation were encouraged at the expense of
almost anything else.
Unlike those
unused high-rises, China’s economy is unlikely to blow up as some bears
continue to suggest. Instead, it is shifting into a new phase defined by more
moderate growth, greater regulatory intervention and more policy uncertainty
than ever before. This week’s disappointing third-quarter GDP data was the
latest sign that Xi
Jinping and his policymakers must now focus on addressing financial risk and
massive social inequality rather than growth.
This shift
would be easier to manage if it were not for a number of challenges converging
at the same time. Property company Evergrande’s debt crisis, a crippling power
shortage, supply-chain issues caused by the global pandemic and repeated
breakouts of the delta COVID-19 virus variant which continue to shut down
ports, airports and sometimes entire cities, are challenging China’s
post-pandemic recovery.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-fatal-chip-on-xi-jinping-s-shoulder-20211021-p591ys
The fatal chip on Xi Jinping’s shoulder
China’s
bullying just endangers itself. The failure to gain the secret sauce that makes
Taiwan a world-beating maker of advanced microchips tells you how.
Thomas Friedman
Contributor
Oct 22, 2021
– 3.31pm
Ever since Deng Xiaoping opened
China to the world in the late 1970s, many in the West wanted to see the
country succeed because we thought China – despite its brutal authoritarian
political structure – was on a path to a more open economy and society.
Alas,
President Xi Jinping has reversed steps in that direction in ways that could
pose a real danger to China’s future development and a real danger to the rest
of the world.
Everything Xi
is doing today is eroding trust among Chinese and foreign entrepreneurs about
what the rules of business are now inside China, while at the same time eroding
trust abroad that China – having swallowed Hong Kong – won’t soon move on
Taiwan, which could trigger a direct conflict with the US.
While I don’t
want Xi’s hard-line strategy to succeed – that would pose a danger to every
free country and economy in the Pacific – I also don’t want China to fail or
fracture. We’re talking about a country of 1.4 billion people whose
destabilisation would affect everything from the air you breathe to global
interest rates. It’s a real dilemma. But I don’t think Xi realises just how
much uncertainty his recent behaviour has injected – inside and outside China.
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I look
forward to comments on all this!
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David.
