July 2, 2020 Edition.
-----
In the USA we are seeing Trump in denial as
the COVID-19 pandemic continues its growing first wave of infections with 45,000+
infections per day. For the US this news is absorbing maximum concern and
maximum denial from Trump. The progressive closing down in the South and West
will start to hit the US economy I fear and that will hurt as all.
In the UK Summer is in full swing and the risk
is that the virus returns.
In OZ we are all worried about what is happening
with the virus in Victoria and how that will affect our re-opening elsewhere in
the country. Time will tell.
-----
Major Issues.
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https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/jones-new-tv-gig-part-of-news-corp-s-game-of-thrones-20200621-p554ne
Jones' new TV gig part of News Corp's
game of thrones
Max Mason Media and
marketing editor
Jun
22, 2020 – 12.00am
Sky News Australia's signing of
Alan Jones to a new exclusive prime-time television show contract is a surprise
to few, as the News Corp-owned 24-hour news channel's chief executive Paul
Whittaker continues to try to build his own version of Fox News and make his
pitch to Lachlan Murdoch for the top job in Australia.
Many were left scratching their
heads when Whittaker's departure as
editor-in-chief from Rupert Murdoch's influential national masthead The Australian was announced in October 2018.
Whittaker, better known as Boris,
took the reins of The
Australian in 2015, and whatever your political views, there is no
denying the masthead had and still has significant pull in the corridors of
power in Canberra.
When Boris' name came up in rumours
to take over from Angelos Frangopoulos as chief executive of Australian News
Channel, owner of Sky News Australia, many thought the idea absurd. If we're
talking about the wielding of political power, The Oz trumps Sky News
Australia every day of the week.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/what-s-missing-from-the-marinus-link-20200621-p554ma
What's missing from the Marinus Link
No
one wants to pay for a second Bass Strait power cable to keep the mainland's
lights on, because energy market design hasn't caught up to the realities of a
renewables-based grid.
Matthew Warren Contributor
Jun
22, 2020 – 12.00am
It seems that everybody loves the
idea of building another submerged electricity cable between mainland Australia
and Tasmania. There’s just one small catch: no one wants to pay for it.
Last week, the federal government
included the Marinus Link undersea transmission line in a list of 15
infrastructure projects
to be fast tracked to help push economic growth post-COVID-19. Moral support
for the project, but not financial.
The price might have something to
do with it. Rolling out two new 750MW cables alongside the existing Basslink
line will cost about $3.5 billion. That’s a lot of money for something that
doesn’t generate or store electricity.
The tripling of the undersea
electricity pipeline to Tasmania is critical to realising that state’s ambition
of providing back-up storage for the growing herd of wind and solar farms
across south-eastern Australia, or, as they more modestly like to put it,
"the battery of the nation".
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https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/town-in-the-arctic-circle-records-temperature-as-hot-as-florida-20200622-p554t8.html
Town in the Arctic Circle records
temperature as hot as Florida
By Andrew
Freedman
June 22, 2020 — 8.10am
Moscow: A town in Siberia is likely to
have set a record for the hottest temperature in the Arctic Circle, reaching 38
degrees.
Verkhoyansk, which is 3000 miles
east of Moscow and just inside the Arctic Circle, typically reaches a summer
high of about 20 degrees.
If verified, this would be the
hottest temperature on record in the Arctic, a region that is warming at more
than twice the rate of the rest of the globe. Records in the town have been
kept since 1885.
On Sunday, the same location
recorded a high temperature of 35.2 degrees, showing the Saturday reading was
not a fluke.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/the-australian-named-most-trusted-paper/news-story/afe51941797a7e9bc12a8bebcc45730d
The Australian named most trusted
paper
Christine Lacy
·
12:00AM June 22, 2020
The
Australian has emerged as the most trusted newspaper brand in the country,
according to the Reuters Institute’s just released Digital News Report for
2020.
While
public broadcasters the ABC and SBS had the highest trust scores overall at 72
per cent and 71 per cent respectively, the annual report reveals the News
Corp-owned national broadsheet to be the most trusted of its newspaper peers
across print and digital with a score of 56 per cent. This compared with Nine’s
The Age and Sydney Morning Herald at 54 per cent and 53 per cent respectively,
the Herald Sun and The Guardian at 49 per cent and the Daily Telegraph at 47
per cent.
The
study reveals that concern about misinformation in the news is high at 64 per
cent.
“Compared
to news sites and other social media platforms, Australians are most concerned
about false or misinformation on Facebook (at 36 per cent),” the study reveals.
Facebook,
the study says, is in decline as a source of news in Australia, down from
providing news to 45 per cent of people in 2016 to 39 per cent in 2020.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/history-may-be-kinder-to-julia-gillard-20200622-p554tp
History may be kinder to Julia
Gillard
The country's
first female prime minister achieved more than her conservative critics will
acknowledge.
Tom Switzer Columnist
Jun
23, 2020 – 12.00am
Tuesday marks a notable date in
Australian political history – the 10th anniversary of the Labor party coup to replace Kevin Rudd with Julia
Gillard.
Gillard made her challenge late on June 23, 2010, and was elected leader
unopposed the following day.
Her government, like that of her
immediate predecessor’s, has enjoyed a terrible reputation and remains
associated with drift, weakness, incompetence and broken promises. But history
may yet be much kinder to our nation’s first female prime minister than many
would have thought.
The knifing of Rudd and the
installation of Gillard had all the hallmarks of a Shakespearean tragedy. Like
many such gambits, and not only in Macbeth, this one ended badly for the assassins. The
conspirators fatally stabbed someone they loathed, but as a consequence sparked
a cycle of revenge knifings.
-----
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/disgrace-of-heydon-is-a-warning-to-all-professions-20200623-p5556a
Disgrace of Heydon is a warning to
all professions
Chief
Justice Susan Kiefel has effectively put on notice all the hierarchical
professions that overbearing behaviour by senior men has to end.
Jun
24, 2020 – 12.00am
Former justice of the High Court
Dyson Heydon is a conservative pillar of the legal establishment from central
casting, a hammer of the law-breaking CFMEU in the royal commission he led into
union corruption, and who was brutally frank with fellow judges on their
inefficiency and inability to deliver judgments on time.
Now he is disgraced by complaints
from his subordinates during his decade on the High Court to 2013 that have
been endorsed by an inquiry called by his peers.
The Chief Justice of Australia,
Susan Kiefel, says that the High Court is “ashamed” of Mr Heydon’s alleged
sexual harassment of five of his female associates, and one other woman,
revealed by a workplace inquiry there. Other senior legal women may now come
forward to complain of past unacceptable treatment at the hands of others.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/faceless-men-want-power-in-labor-not-labor-in-power-20200623-p5556e
Faceless men want power in Labor,
not Labor in power
Don't
be fooled by the factional thugs' brazen rewriting of history 10 years later,
says Australia's 26th prime minister.
Kevin Rudd Former Australian
prime minister
Jun 24,
2020 – 12.00am
Ten years ago, the faceless men of
the factions decided to remove Australia’s democratically elected prime
minister. In the decade since, they have unsuccessfully sought to construct a
narrative that their motives were noble.
They weren’t. It was a crude grab
for factional power which Julia Gillard was happy to accommodate to secure the
prime ministership. The rest is history.
To my surprise, these last few
days, the faceless men decided to give it one last burl – both in on-the-record
interviews and background briefings.
You would have thought, given the Somyurek debacle, they would have had the good
sense to just shut up. But arrogance is a defining characteristic of factional
thugs.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-hasn-t-taken-scott-morrison-long-to-start-playing-friends-and-enemies-20200623-p555am.html
It hasn't taken Scott Morrison
long to start playing friends and enemies
Economics Editor
June 24, 2020 — 12.01am
A new rule of politics seems to be
that no matter how badly the pollies have stuffed up some area of government
responsibility, they can always make it worse. Enter the hapless federal
Education Minister Dan Tehan who, doubtless acting under instructions from the
boss, has just announced another set of passive-aggressive changes to
university funding.
If, like a good Quiet Australian,
you haven't been paying close attention, you may have gained the impression
that the government is acting to help our unis to take in more local students –
helping fill the vacuum left by the disappearance of overseas students – and
changing the structure of tuition fees to encourage students into more occupationally
oriented courses, which will make them "job-ready graduates" going
into fields where the need for graduates is expected to be greatest.
You probably haven't noticed that,
according to Tehan, the package includes "an additional $400 million over
four years" for regional unis, and "a further $900 million" for
the National Priorities and Industry Linkage Fund.
Except that the whole package is
"budget neutral" – a bureaucrat's way of saying it will cost the
government not an extra cent. Since the government's expecting extra demand for
uni places over the next three years, this is tantamount to its first major
cost-cutting exercise after taking fright at the blowout in the budget deficit
caused by the lockdown of the economy. So the "extra" and "further"
funding will be coming not from the government's pockets but those of the
universities and their students.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/dodgy-investments-stopped-in-their-tracks-20200619-p55462.html
Dodgy investments stopped in their
tracks
June 23, 2020 — 10.00pm
The Australian Securities and
Investments Commission's newly acquired intervention powers will be used to
stop the sale of dodgy financial products even before any sales have been made
in order to head-off detriment to consumers.
It is a major change in how the
financial regulator protects consumers. Previously, it had often relied on
product disclosures to make consumers aware of the risks and was restricted in
pre-emptive actions it could take.
ASIC will use
its intervention powers to crack down on dodgy financial products before any
damage is done to consumers.
In its new guide, ASIC makes clear
that it is prepared to use its powers against products or classes of products
"likely to harm consumers financially or were inappropriate for their
needs," rather than waiting until there has been evidence of damage.
The powers have already been used
to stop a payday lender and to propose a ban on some types of Contract For
Difference (CFD) trading.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/money-for-arts-sake-creative-workers-in-dire-need-of-support/news-story/dc7d0aaa3cdae15eb97cd65182db777d
Money for art’s sake: creative
workers ‘in dire need of support’
Patrick
Commins
·
12:00AM June 24, 2020
Australia
will lose “a generation of creative professionals” if Scott Morrison doesn’t move
swiftly to support workers in the devastated arts and entertainment industries,
a Senate committee into the COVID-19 response has heard.
The
warning comes as the government puts the finishing touches to a rescue package
for the industry, to be released this week.
The
Prime Minister said on Tuesday that while some regions and sectors were “in a
much better position than they were back in March … there are many others which
aren’t in that position”.
Mr
Morrison singled out the creative and entertainment industries as examples of
devastated sectors that “have seen no change, and that’s not surprising given
the social-distancing rules that apply”.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/artificial-intelligence-is-where-our-natural-talents-lie-20200618-p553tf
Artificial intelligence is where
our natural talents lie
Gregor Ferguson
Jun
24, 2020 – 4.45pm
Australia has been a world leader
in artificial intelligence and autonomous defence technology for a couple of
decades, thanks to projects such as the BAE Systems Australia Nulka
anti-missile decoy.
Designed to be launched from a
ship under attack, Nulka is a rocket that hovers vertically above the sea,
moving slowly away from the target ship and emitting a radio signal that
seduces the incoming missile towards the decoy.
BAE Systems in Melbourne
successfully defeated the autonomous control challenge in making a rocket hover
at exactly the right altitude and behave convincingly like a ship, says BAE
Systems’ chief technology officer, Brad Yelland.
They were so successful, Nulka has
been adopted by the US and Canadian navies; the company’s core technology was
also selected by US giant Raytheon over US and German rivals to provide the
autonomous missile control system for the Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM)
used by the Australian and US navies and 12 others worldwide for air and
missile defence.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/robodebts-monumental-failure-cant-be-ignored/news-story/1f34c6343ad66b2052060b206cedf351
Robodebt’s
monumental failure can’t be ignored
Peter
van Onselen
·
June 26, 2020
The
government has become very fond of using Friday afternoons to “take out the
trash”. That is, to hide bad news in the lowest rating period of the news
cycle, once it’s too late for the large Saturday newspaper spreads to devote
themselves to the issue. The hope being that the issue will die down come
Sunday.
That’s
what it did a few Fridays ago with robodebt, when it announced it would be
paying back more than $700m in illegally acquired debts from vulnerable
Australians.
However
the issue should not go away, which is one of the reasons Labor earlier this
week called for a Royal Commission into the fiasco.
I
can understand why many Australians might baulk at the idea of yet another
Royal Commission given there have been so many in recent years. And many of
them have been more about politics than policy: for example, the one the
Coalition called shortly after it won the 2013 election into the union
movement. Designed to damage then-Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, it was
presided over by now-disgraced former High Court judge Dyson Heydon.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-prime-minister-makes-few-bones-about-his-favourites-20200626-p556et
The brief sparkle of better
politics is over
Two
prime ministerial press conferences revealed that the brief glimmering moment
when our leaders seemed to make decisions in the broad public interest, rather
than their own political interests, is over.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Jun
26, 2020 – 3.58pm
Here is a tale of two press
conferences.
It has been a week of depressing news about job losses at Woolworths and Qantas, as well as the ABC. The reminder from Melbourne that we have not somehow dodged the
pandemic was also depressing.
But if the news was depressing on
both the jobs and health front, the confirmation that we have also not dodged a
class of politics which thinks it is okay to tell voters black is white is equally
depressing.
That brief glimmering moment when
our leaders seemed to make decisions in the broad public interest, rather than
their own political interests, and drew us into their frank confidence, is
over.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-been-a-devastating-week-for-the-abc-and-all-australians-will-suffer-20200626-p556o7.html
It's been a devastating week for
the ABC, and all Australians will suffer
By Ita Buttrose
June 26, 2020 — 5.10pm
There is a reason why the majority of Australians trust
the ABC.
The ABC has not only helped shape Australia, we are the
national voice that unites us.
It's about democracy. Without the ABC we would have a
balkanised and parochial bunch of broadcasters that are in danger of being
compromised by profit and more intent on dividing than unifying.
Imagine what it would be like during the bushfire season
if we had to rely only on state-based or even regionally-based media outlets.
When we are in the middle of bushfires, don't we want to know that they are
being covered by a knowledgeable and experienced network of journalists with
all the supporting infrastructure of a large national network?
The ABC, funded by all of us, regardless of our creed –
race, age, political beliefs – is us. It's the way we build cross-cultural
understanding, the way we help each other in times of need. It's who we are
collectively. Why would anyone want to diminish that and make us less than who
we are?
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coronavirus-and-its-lethal-politics-chipping-away-at-life-as-we-knew-it/news-story/8c16ecea7aa0c87cb0a546edacdf1d89
Coronavirus
and its lethal politics chipping away at life as we knew it
Paul
Kelly
·
12:00AM June 27, 2020
The
road to combating COVID-19 is getting longer and steeper. The strains on
individual psychology and fortitude will intensify. Forecasts for the global
economy were downgraded this week, while the outbreak in Victoria reminds
Australians the risk from the virus lurks permanently in the shadows.
Australia
is changing, perhaps less than many other nations, but the life we knew is
being stripped back. That initial joy we felt a month ago that “things are
opening up” is now tinged with harsh realism: short of a vaccine, there is no
return to normal. For many people, any certainty about jobs, wages, retirement
income and family prosperity is inexorably called into question.
Our
ability to deny a second wave is now being tested in Melbourne’s suburbs. Josh
Frydenberg says success in this battle is “absolutely critical”. Victorian
Premier Dan Andrews, facing an erosion of confidence in his management, says
the state is on a “knife edge” and is imposing 100,000 tests over the next 10
days, including many based on doorknocking.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/government-should-guarantee-jobs-as-the-employer-of-last-resort/news-story/321fc94f0bc627fb00fce803dc9032e7
Government
should guarantee jobs as the employer of last resort
·
12:00AM June 27, 2020
Instead
of thrashing about trying to figure out what to do with the JobKeeper allowance
and JobSeeker supplement after September, the Morrison government should turn
them into a permanent federal job guarantee.
Scott
Morrison should go down in history as the first leader in the world to
implement the great economist Hyman Minsky’s vision of the government being
“employer of last resort”, as a better way of dealing with poverty than
welfare.
He
wouldn’t be the last if he did: we are moving inexorably into a world of Modern
Monetary Theory (MMT) and much greater government involvement in the economy.
It’s just a matter how much of a mess there is before the political classes
actually do what’s necessary.
Qantas
raised the prospect this week that high unemployment is going to be problem for
years, and that even if the $10bn per month JobKeeper is continued it won’t
help — potentially to the point where the health crisis turns into a financial
crisis because of a wave of mortgage defaults.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/senior-labor-mps-demand-shaoquett-moselmane-leave-parliament-immediately-20200627-p556tt.html
Senior Labor MPs demand Shaoquett
Moselmane leave Parliament immediately
June 28, 2020 — 12.00am
Senior Labor frontbenchers want
suspended MP Shaoquett Moselmane to resign immediately from NSW Parliament
after the Berejiklian government said it would move to suspend him.
But the political future of Mr Moselmane
is likely to split NSW Labor MPs, with some insisting the upper house MP
deserves the presumption of innocence before his career is ruined.
Labor leader Jodi McKay asked the
party's general secretary, Bob Nanva, to suspend Mr Moselmane from the party
immediately on Friday after his properties were raided by federal agents as
part of an ASIO investigation into possible Chinese Communist Party influence.
She has been briefed by ASIO and the Australian Federal Police on the
investigation into Mr Moselmane.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/our-china-spy-law-bares-its-teeth-with-raid-on-labor-mp-20200626-p556p7.html
Our China spy law bares its teeth
with raid on Labor MP
June 26, 2020 — 7.38pm
If there were any doubt about
Australia's resolve to stand its ground in the face of a full-force pressure
campaign from China, those doubts evaporated on Friday. The moment that a dozen
plainclothes federal agents arrived to raid the home of a NSW member of
parliament at 6.30am, Australia's response to Beijing was unmistakeable.
The Australian Security
Intelligence Organisation and the Australian Federal Police raided Labor
politician Shaoquett Moselmane's house in an investigation into alleged Chinese
Communist Party interference in the country's democracy.
It is always a highly sensitive
matter when the authorities take any action against a member of parliament,
state or federal. It must always be done in strict conformity with the law, for
the protection of Parliament's prerogatives and for the sanctity of the
democratic system.
But when a police and intelligence
action also puts the national relationship with China in the dock, it's more
than sensitive. It's explosive. And it's been done in full knowledge of all the
ramifications.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bring-in-the-barbarians-the-morrison-government-is-marching-us-towards-anti-intellectualism-20200627-p556s8.html
Bring in the Barbarians: the
Morrison government is marching us towards anti-intellectualism
June 27, 2020 — 9.00pm
It’s beginning to feel like the
Barbarians are in charge.
And no, I’m not talking about poor
Guy Sebastian, the former Australian Idol pop star who was lambasted this week
for smiling and nodding along in the background as Prime Minister Scott
Morrison announced his shamefully overdue stimulus package for the arts.
For his support of the Prime
Minister, Sebastian paid the usual Twitter price. He was even called a “scab”
by a prominent poet, which seemed a tad harsh.
While many were misdirecting their
ire at Sebastian, who was only trying to help, the larger picture was missed.
This government, led by a prime
minister at pains to emphasise his ordinariness through the semaphore of sports
and baseball caps, seems intent on picking fights with the arts, marching the
electorate down the path of anti-intellectualism, apparently in the hope that
by picking winners it can score votes.
-----
Bushfire Crisis And Climate Policy
-----
No articles in this section
-----
Coronavirus And Impacts.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/fresh-spike-a-blow-for-andrews-and-canberra-20200621-p554p6
Fresh spike a blow for Andrews and
Canberra
Victoria
was already out of step with the rest of Australia as other state governments
moved to relax internal restrictions more quickly. Now a spike in in Melbourne
makes the gap even wider, with warnings the economic impact will be “hard and
harsh”.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun
21, 2020 – 4.03pm
The mass Black Lives Matter
protests of two weeks ago look to have had only a modest direct impact on the
community spread of COVID-19. But they certainly had a big psychological
impact, with more people resenting restrictions still imposed on others – and
particularly strictly enforced in Victoria.
Daniel Andrews will now have to
pay the political cost of his decision to postpone Monday’s planned easing of restrictions in a way that
would more closely match the level of economic opening in other states,
including NSW. Instead, he gets to preside over Melbourne’s new pole position
as Australia’s corona capital, as well as holding the national branch-stacking
record. Victoria’s state of emergency is to last until mid-July.
The economic pall will not just
just fall on all those Victorian restaurants, cafes, bars, gyms and cinemas
which had planned to open this week under more relaxed guidelines of
up to 50 people. Nor on small groups of Victorians getting together in one
another’s home or outside, now halved again to five and 10 people respectively,
supposedly until July 12.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/despite-the-lockdown-success-we-re-far-from-done-with-covid-19-20200621-p554no
Despite the lockdown success,
we're far from done with COVID-19
The
curve is flat, but new modelling shows that a return to normal could bring the
virus back unless we remain vigilant about social distancing.
Stephen Duckett and Will Mackey
Jun
21, 2020 – 12.38pm
It has been five months since the
first coronavirus case in Australia. Since then, the combined efforts of the
federal and state governments, and the people they represent, have prevented us
from experiencing the disaster that is now playing out around the world.
COVID-19 didn’t fundamentally
change. We did. The virus can still spread the way it has in China, then in
Italy, and then the United States and the United Kingdom and Brazil, and so on,
around the globe. It was stopped by our behaviour, which slowed the spread and
flattened the curve.
We stopped going to major events.
We greeted each other with a nod instead of a shake at work or at school or in
the park. And then we stopped going into work or into school. We stopped eating
in at cafes and restaurants. We stopped going to the park. Our lockdowns and
social distancing efforts have driven the number of active COVID-19 cases in
the community towards zero.
When
our perceptions of risk are low, our behaviour might slip back to pre-pandemic
ways.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/virus-effect-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-20200621-p554oa
Virus effect is the elephant in
the room
There is little point in talking
about a second wave when the first wave has not yet finished with its job of
wreaking havoc.
William Hanage Contributor
Jun
21, 2020 – 2.07pm
Vice-President Mike Pence says the
United States is well positioned to handle the second wave of coronavirus
infections.
This is nonsense – not least
because much of the United States has not yet confronted the first wave.
The surge of infections that
marked the early pandemic in the north-east of the country has been delayed
elsewhere by some combination of early action (as is plausibly the case in much
of California) or because those places are more sparsely populated, more
dependent on cars and less reliant on public transportation or, bluntly, just
luckier.
Many places haven't seen a
super-spreading event – yet. We epidemiologists expect places such as New York
City, where introductions of the virus and contact rates are both high, to be
especially vulnerable early on.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/we-want-to-keep-people-in-their-homes-says-cba-20200619-p5546g
'We want to keep people in their
homes', says CBA
James Eyers Senior Reporter
Jun
22, 2020 – 12.00am
As banks begin three-month checks
on customers with deferred loans, Commonwealth Bank's retail banking boss Angus
Sullivan is pledging a policy of forbearance over foreclosure.
Across the banks, just under 780,000 loans worth $237 billion have seen
repayments halted, according to Australian Banking Association data published
on Friday.
Of this, 485,063 are mortgages,
worth $175 billion. Saturday marked three months since deferrals were first
offered in response to the coronavirus, initially to small business loans and
then to mortgages; most of the repayment holidays are for six months and banks
pledged to check-in with customers at the half-way mark.
With CBA having hit the pause
button for 127,000 customers and beginning a triage process to determine who
can start repaying again, Mr Sullivan said kicking people out of their homes
pledged as security for the mortgage is absolutely a last resort.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-in-a-forest-fire-not-a-second-wave-experts-warn-as-coronavirus-cases-spike-20200622-p554sx.html
US in a ‘forest fire’, not a
second wave: Experts’ warning as coronavirus cases spike
Updated June 22, 2020 —
8.16am first published at 7.16am
Washington: Daily counts of new coronavirus
cases in the US are the highest they've been in more than a month, but public
health experts say "second wave" is probably the wrong term to
describe what's happening.
"When you have 20,000-plus
infections per day, how can you talk about a second wave?" said Dr Anthony
Fauci of the National Institutes of Health.
"We're in the first wave.
Let's get out of the first wave before you have a second wave."
Florida and South Carolina had
their third straight day breaking single-day records, and Missouri and Nevada
both hit their records on Saturday.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/markets-are-mistaken-the-new-normal-is-here-to-stay-20200621-p554mb
Markets are mistaken, the new
normal is here to stay
The
earliest economic recovery will not be until 2024-25, and bigger government is
one of the long-term changes now under way, says a special adviser to the
COVID-19 commission.
Andrew Liveris Contributor
Jun
22, 2020 – 1.25pm
We are in a crisis. Nobody would
deny that. At some point we will all face the reality that disruption is with
us for some time.
The largest social disruption in the
US since the 1960s,
sparked by the racially charged and tragic killing of George Floyd. The worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The greatest public health threat
since the Spanish flu.
All connected, all amplifying the other.
Yet we have reopened, through policy and protest alike.
And no matter how uncomfortable it may make us, we must understand and
challenge this “new normal” accordingly.
Markets, which we have come to
view as all-encompassing judges of risk and opportunity, are reading this
crisis wrong. Sharemarket optimism should be ignored. Its high-flying mood is
nothing more than a punt on the flow of free money.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/banks-apra-to-soften-blow-as-loan-repayment-cliff-looms/news-story/061a9f1b38dd8727d14551f10e165b7a
Banks, APRA to soften blow as loan
repayment cliff looms
Richard
Gluyas
·
12:00AM June 23, 2020
The
prudential regulator and the banking industry are in deep discussions about
cushioning the impact of the nation’s looming financial “cliff” by trading a
longer period of loan deferrals for extended capital relief.
With
the current deferral scheme and government support packages due to expire at
the end of September, the Morrison government, regulators and the banks are
desperate to avoid the catastrophic impact on the economy and the property
market of a wave of foreclosures, particularly in the lead-up to Christmas.
Negotiations
are considered likely to bear fruit before the end of July, after the
Australian Prudential Regulation Authority gathers more data from the banks
conducting check-ins with customers three months after loan deferrals began in
mid-March.
However,
an industry insider cautioned against “counting your regulatory chickens before
they’re hatched”, as bank support for repayment deferrals for another six
months mostly depended on the capital treatment of their medium-risk loans.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/investors-dismiss-prospect-of-v-shaped-recovery-20200622-p554zy
Investors dismiss prospect of
‘V-shaped’ recovery
Attracta Mooney Contributor
Jun
22, 2020 – 2.39pm
London | Investment management
professionals have rubbished the idea of a quick global recovery from the
coronavirus crisis, warning of several years of stagnation and a huge risk of
asset mis-pricing as stock markets become increasingly disassociated with economic
activity.
The CFA Institute, the global
association of investment management professionals, found only 10 per cent
believe a quick “V-shaped” recovery was likely based on a survey of almost
13,300 of its members.
The vast majority expect a slower
recovery: 44 per cent forecast a medium-term hockey stick-shaped recovery,
which implies some form of stagnation for two to three years before a pick-up,
while 35 per cent opted for a U-shaped recovery, suggesting they were mildly
more optimistic in the short term.
Only 4 per cent, however, forecast
long-term economic stagnation, akin to economist “Dr Doom” Nouriel Roubini’s warnings of a lost decade.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/call-to-hasten-tax-cuts-as-nation-faces-years-of-low-rates-20200622-p55500.html
Call to hasten tax cuts as nation
faces years of low rates
June 22, 2020 — 7.45pm
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is being
urged to bring forward the government's planned personal income tax cuts to
deliver a much-needed boost to the post-pandemic economy as the Reserve Bank
warns the coronavirus will cast a shadow for years.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans
said the economy needed a boost to private demand and that would be best served
by bringing forward the tax cuts, legislated to start from mid-2022, which
would deliver a $14 billion annual boost.
Mr Frydenberg has pushed back the
budget to October, with the government already warning it will show a record
deficit after a huge shortfall in the current financial year. At the end of
April, the budget was showing a deficit of $40 billion.
There are growing fears the economy could
slow through the December quarter as key government support, including the $70 billion JobKeeper
wage subsidy program, is withdrawn.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/nowhere-near-the-end-virus-surge-jolts-prospects-for-world-economy-20200623-p5555j.html
'Nowhere near the end': Virus
surge jolts prospects for world economy
By Enda
Curran
June 23, 2020 — 9.32am
The global economy's fragile
recovery is facing a fresh hurdle as the surge in coronavirus cases threatens
to keep businesses closed and consumers on edge.
Cases of the deadly virus rose by
a record
for a single day on June 21, according to the World Health Organisation, with
flare ups across the US and new scares in Germany and Australia. While China
said the latest outbreak in Beijing is under control, other large emerging
economies including Brazil, India and Indonesia continue to see cases soar.
"The fight is nowhere close
to being over," said Tuuli McCully, the Singapore-based head of Asia
Pacific economics at Scotiabank. "A second significant wave of infections
in advanced economies is a huge risk for the global economy that is still in
very early stages of recovery."
The concern comes as high
frequency data tracked by Bloomberg Economics had been showing an improving
picture for sectors such as transport and dining out as lockdown restrictions
are eased. A sustained pickup in virus cases threatens to undermine or even
reverse those trends.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/regulators-tell-banks-to-deploy-their-capital-buffers-20200624-p555jh
Regulators tell banks to deploy
their capital buffers
James Frost Financial
Services Writer
Jun
24, 2020 – 9.08am
The top financial regulators have
urged banks to continue supporting businesses and households by running down
capital buffers as the economy braces for the conclusion of government stimulus in September.
The Council of Financial
Regulators quarterly meeting held last Friday had an upbeat tone as the group
noted a nascent recovery in business activity and reduced volatility in global
financial markets more generally.
They remained focused however on
the role played by the banks as they worked with regulators to defer 780,000 loans worth $236 billion in a co-ordinated effort to build a bridge to
the other side of the crisis.
“Members agreed that financial
institutions, regulators and governments will need to continue to show
flexibility in order to support the objectives of economic recovery, resilience
of financial institutions, and fair household and business outcomes,” that
statement released on Wednesday said.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/genomic-sleuths-track-the-true-origins-of-covid-19-infections-20200625-p55626
Genomic sleuths track the true
origins of COVID-19 infections
Tom Burton Government editor
Jun
25, 2020 – 6.58pm
Victoria is using world-leading
genomic fingerprinting techniques to track infections and better identify
cluster sources and super spreaders.
Researchers from Melbourne
University's Doherty Institute have mapped the DNA of around 80 per cent of all of Victoria's COVID-19 infections since late January, using a technique known as
genomic sequencing.
The COVID-19 virus mutates
regularly, enabling Doherty researchers to work with the Victorian Department
of Health and Human Services to track the source and transmission chains and to
stamp them out.
Each mutation is unique and enables
researchers to forensically track individual clusters and the true source of
the infection.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/inside-the-wild-west-battle-to-secure-medical-supplies-20200615-p552vw
Inside the 'Wild West' battle to
secure medical supplies
Australia
has been engaged in a global battle to secure enough test kits, ventilators and
protective equipment to manage the virus - and it's every country for itself.
Ronald Mizen Reporter
Jun
27, 2020 – 12.00am
A convoy carrying surgical masks
is stopped by police as it approaches a German airport, where a chartered jet
waits on the tarmac, ready to transport the critical cargo to Australia. It’s
late Wednesday, March 4.
Hours earlier, the German
government passed laws prohibiting the export of personal protective equipment
in response to a deadly novel coronavirus sweeping the globe. The order is
cancelled, and the supplies are lost.
“When we heard what had happened,
we knew [personal protective equipment] procurement was becoming like the wild
west,” a person involved in securing supplies says.
The lost cargo was a blow for
Australia, which had been thrust into the middle of a global battle to source
critical medical supplies – including test kits, face masks, ventilators, gowns
and goggles – to combat the pandemic.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-well-stocked-for-a-second-virus-wave-20200626-p556le
Australia well stocked for a
second virus wave
Ronald Mizen Reporter
Jun
27, 2020 – 12.01am
As Australia faces a possible second wave of coronavirus, the health system is well
prepared after one of the largest peacetime procurement efforts in the nation's
history.
More than 11 million test kits,
190 million masks, 19 million gloves, 2 million gowns, 2 million goggles and
7500 ventilators have been secured since the beginning of the year, The
Australian Financial Review can reveal.
But the process has not been
without setbacks. Several orders for much needed ventilators were either cancelled or delayed due to
sweeping powers invoked by US President Donald Trump.
The Financial Review
understands orders for ventilators from manufacturers Philips and General
Electric went unfulfilled due to Mr Trump's invocation of the Defence
Production Act.
The act, which was passed in the
1950s, is designed to ensure the adequate supply of medical equipment to the
United States. President Trump's decision to invoke the act for the COVID-19 crisis
gave officials powers to force companies to prioritise US orders.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/testing-times-in-australia-s-virus-fight-20200625-p555zx
Testing times in Australia's virus
fight
A
spike in both infections and job losses this week has jolted the country out of
its post-lockdown complacency and reminded policymakers of the challenge ahead.
Andrew Tillett Political correspondent
Jun
27, 2020 – 12.00am
Scott Morrison warned this would
happen. Eight weeks ago in a speech outlining Canberra and the states'
three-step plan to reopen society and kickstart the economy, the Prime Minister
struck a note of caution.
Delivering a reality check after
Australia's success in flattening the coronavirus curve, Morrison warned there
would be further outbreaks of the disease but that was no excuse to be timid.
"We cannot allow our fear of
going backwards [to stop] us going forward," Morrison said.
This week, fear returned.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/how-to-maximise-your-tax-refund-in-the-year-of-covid-19-20200618-p553zy
How to maximise your tax refund in
the year of COVID-19
As
well as ticking off your "to do" list before June 30, ensure you're
making the most of ATO special concessions.
Duncan Hughes Reporter
Jun
27, 2020 – 12.00am
There are only a few days left of
this tax year to make the most of new personal and business concessions aimed
at helping taxpayers through a tumultuous year of COVID-19, bushfires and
financial disruption.
But the Australian Taxation Office
warns it is zeroing in on pandemic and other tax frauds through enhanced
payroll access, information provided by super funds and even contacting
employers to verify work claims.
Karen Foat, ATO assistant
commissioner, says: “This year we will ask people to think about how
circumstances have changed and adjust their claims accordingly. Some things
people will be able to claim more, some less.”
Work-related claims
About 14 million taxpayers
typically claim about $20 billion in work-related expenses, including about $8
billion for “other related expenses”, which includes people working from home,
according to the ATO.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/testing-rates-for-returning-travellers-in-sydney-at-98-per-cent-20200627-p556uf.html
Testing rates for returning
travellers in Sydney at 98 per cent
June 27, 2020 — 6.27pm
Only 2 per cent of travellers in
quarantine in Sydney hotels have refused to be tested for COVID-19, NSW Health
said, as the state reported six new cases on Saturday amid record testing with
the onset of cold and flu season.
NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard
will not make testing mandatory but has updated the public health orders to
ensure returned travellers would have to stay an extra 10 days in quarantine if
they refuse to be tested for the virus.
He said it was "very
concerning" that about 150 people had so far refused to be tested on the
10th day of quarantine. "My view is this will encourage those who have
been reluctant to be tested to actually have the test. That’s a positive
outcome for the NSW community," he said.
While nobody who has refused the
test has brought the virus into the community, Mr Hazzard said the government
was "not prepared to run the risk going forward".
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tourism-industry-braces-for-55-billion-hit-with-overseas-travel-likely-banned-until-july-20200625-p5563k.html
Tourism industry braces for $55
billion hit with overseas travel likely banned until July 2021
June 27, 2020 — 12.52pm
The Australian tourism sector is
expected to cop a $55 billion hit over the next financial year amid uncertainty
over the reopening of state borders and the assumption international travel
bans will remain until July 2021.
Tourism expenditure is forecast to
fall from $138.5 billion in 2019 to $83.8 billion, and the dire forecast is
spurring warnings that regional economies will be devastated if JobKeeper
payments for workers aren't extended beyond the current September end date.
The prediction comes from a report
in May by the Australian Trade and Investment Commission seen by The
Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age. It assumes international travel bans
will remain until at least July 2021 but state border restrictions will be
lifted.
The economic impact could be even
worse if internal travel restrictions aren't eased as anticipated, which is
worrying tourism lobby groups and operators. The report shows domestic holiday
activity was worth $54.3 billion in 2019, but is expected to drop 26 per cent
to $40.2 billion in 2020-21.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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There are no entries in this section.
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National Budget Issues.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/low-rates-for-years-as-economy-meanders-lowe-20200622-p554w6.html
Low rates for years as economy
meanders: Lowe
June 22, 2020 — 11.26am
Record low interest rates will
remain in place for years, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has warned while
raising fears the coronavirus pandemic will cast an enduring shadow over the
Australian economy.
Dr Lowe, addressing a virtual
conference held by the Australian National University's Crawford School, on
Monday said the pandemic had changed the mentality of consumers and would weigh
on businesses and governments as they sought to recover.
The RBA has taken official
interest rates to a record low 0.25 per cent, bought more than $50 billion in
state government bonds and extended a $90 billion line of credit to commercial
banks to lend to small and medium-sized businesses.
The government has taken official
gross debt to a record $680.4 billion as it deals with a collapse in tax
revenue and extra spending to help support the economy.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/coronavirus-shadow-on-economy-may-last-for-years-warns-rba-governor-philip-lowe/news-story/9f43d91e96620484857616e511c8bf1d
Coronavirus: Shadow on economy may
last for years, warns RBA Governor Philip Lowe
Patrick
Commins
·
June 22, 2020
Reserve
Bank governor Philip Lowe has warned post-pandemic Australians will be more
risk averse and less willing to spend, borrow and invest, and “unless we change
something we are going to be in a world of lower (economic) growth”.
Speaking
at an ANU Crawford School event on Monday morning, Dr Lowe again flagged an
urgent need for reform to improve the country’s productivity, and said he had
been “encouraged” by the Morrison government’s talk of
reform to industrial relations,
boosted infrastructure spending and a greater focus on deregulation.
“We
can borrow to build a bridge but without reforms we will meander along with
mediocre growth and we can’t borrow our way out of that,” Dr Lowe said.
The
“shadow” cast over the economy from the pandemic “will last perhaps for years”.
“We
can move out of that shadow slowly or quickly,” Dr Lowe said, and the reinvigoration
of the economy will depend on the pace of technological advancement in the wake
of the crisis, and how well we can implement policy reform.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/record-collapse-for-car-petrol-imports/news-story/c0e1606b7b091bcd7e1c927bb1d4a4ad
Record collapse for car, petrol
imports
Patrick
Commins
·
12:34PM June 23, 2020
The
COVID-19 crisis triggered a record collapse in the imports of cars and petroleum
in May, while still booming iron ore exports were not enough to prevent another
monthly drop in the value of exported goods.
The
latest, preliminary international merchandise trade figures from the Australian
Bureau of Statistics, showed there was a 40 per cent monthly plunge in the
value of imported motor vehicles in May to $1.6bn – only half of May 2019
levels and the lowest figure since April 2011. Car imports dropped 10 per cent
in April.
Imports
of petroleum plunged by a third in the month to $1.2bn – the lowest in 15 years
– to be 64 per cent lower than a year before. Imports of crude petroleum and
aircraft fuel were the hardest hit by the decline in demand due to COVID-19
restrictions and lower oil prices, the ABS said.
The
falls in petroleum and vehicles drove the overall $2.2bn, or 9 per cent, fall
in imports from April’s downwardly revised figure of $21.9bn. The value of
imported goods in May was $4.8bn, or 18 per cent, lower than a year earlier.
-----
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/ending-the-debt-and-deficit-fallacy/news-story/a0195466fc55dc4f1d5cff9a26cd6ae5
Ending
the debt and deficit fallacy
Alan
Kohler
·
6:49AM June 22, 2020
At
least this pandemic might result in one good thing: the end of the notion that
government deficits come from “reckless overspending” and are a “burden on our
children”, and have to be paid back with budget surpluses.
They
aren’t, and they don’t.
Australia’s
federal deficit is probably going to balloon out to $150 billion both this year
and next, and possibly more depending on what happens with the virus.
Government debt will hit $1 trillion, possibly before the next election.
It
would be a pretty foolish political party that described this as the result of
reckless spending and a burden on future generations, and it would be completely
crazy for them to campaign on paying it back.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-rba-experiment-keenly-watched-by-the-federal-reserve-20200623-p5559z.html
The RBA 'jaw-boning' experiment
keenly watched by the Federal Reserve
Senior business columnist
June 23, 2020 — 12.41pm
One of the curious aspects of the
policy responses to the coronavirus pandemic is that the Reserve Bank’s move
into unconventional monetary policy territory has provoked so little discussion.
Its deployment of "yield curve control" is, however, generating
increasing interest offshore.
The US Federal Reserve Board is
paying close attention to the RBA’s capping of bond rates out to three-year
maturities as it considers whether to add such a move to the raft of
unconventional measures it has already implemented in the US.
The RBA was reluctant to go down
the unconventional path before it chose the least interventionist of options,
eschewing a negative cash rate or more conventional quantitative easing - the
large-scale and pre-programmed purchases of bonds and mortgages to keep
interest rates down and pump central-bank-created cash out into the financial
system.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/victoria-pays-the-price-for-double-standard-20200624-p555r1
Victoria pays the price for
'double standard'
The
lessons of earlier delays in dealing with the cluster from Cedar Meats abattoir
don't seem to have registered. The cost is now obvious statewide.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun
24, 2020 – 3.58pm
It didn’t take much for the fear,
even hysteria, to return.
Long waiting lines at testing
clinics in the hotspots of Melbourne; “stay away” warnings to Victorians from
NSW, the only other state with open borders; even a modest run on toilet paper
and other basics in suburban shopping centres.
The federal government is still
relatively confident the Victorian spike in COVID-19 cases can be contained
within a week or so, especially now Daniel Andrews realises his typically tough
rhetoric can’t replace concerted testing and tracing, backed by household
checks and localised restrictions on the ground.
After all, there were still only 20 new Victorian cases reported on Wednesday after a
week of similar double-digit rises. This may sound alarming but so far doesn’t
represent the exponential increases in large numbers associated with rapid,
uncontrolled spread of the virus.
The transmission to the national economy as well as to the national psyche
is still instantaneous, however. It’s not just other premiers blaming Victoria
for possible further delays in their own proposed border openings. Given
heightened community sensitivities to any repeat of the shutdowns of April and
May, even encounters with Victorians are now regarded as dubious by their
fellow Australians. It’s as if the entire state has suddenly become a glowing
“hotspot”.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-stars-as-imf-paints-bleak-pandemic-picture-20200624-p555kt
Australia stars as IMF paints
bleak pandemic picture
John Kehoe Senior writer
Jun
24, 2020 – 11.00pm
The global pandemic recession is
far deeper than feared but Australia is a standout performer as the only
advanced economy to have its economic outlook upgraded by the International
Monetary Fund.
The IMF forecasts the local
economy to contract a still hefty 4.5 per cent this year, less severe than the
massive 6.7 per cent fall it tipped in April.
Economic growth is projected to
recover 4 per cent in 2021.
For recovering economies like
Australia, the IMF advised emergency government support such as wage subsidies
should be "gradually" unwound, while adding new stimulus measures.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/struggling-arts-sector-gets-250m-lifeline-20200624-p555jj
Struggling arts sector gets $250m
lifeline
The
grants and low-interest loans are designed to help arts and entertainment
companies get back on their feet as social distancing measures are eased.
Phillip Coorey and Tom McIlroy
Jun
24, 2020 – 10.30pm
The Morrison government will offer
$250 million in grants and
low-interest loans to help the struggling arts, film and entertainment sectors get back on their feet, in the
latest industry-specific COVID-19 support package.
The sectors, among the worst affected
by the coronavirus lockdown, will receive funding to help restart stalled
productions, stage new events, and to remain sustainable while social
distancing restricts audience sizes.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/long-term-ramifications-of-crisis-are-becoming-clearer-20200624-p555su.html
Long-term ramifications of crisis
are becoming clearer
Economics writer
June 24, 2020 — 11.36pm
Another day, another media frenzy
about a dire economic prediction.
To be fair, the latest set of
forecasts released overnight by the International Monetary Fund is a doozy.
The previous edition of the IMF's
World Economic Outlook, published in April, was bad enough, titled simply The
Great Lockdown and heralding an "unprecedented" decline in global
economic activity.
This week's report is titled:
"A crisis like no other, an uncertain recovery." I'd accuse the IMF
boffins of being somewhat melodramatic if this wasn't also an entirely accurate
depiction of their outlook.
The IMF is forecasting
co-ordinated contractions in both advanced and emerging economies this year —
the first time this has happened since the Great Depression.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/economic-outlook-worsening-global-debt-to-surpass-wwii-levels-imf-20200624-p555mc.html
Economic outlook worsening, global
debt to surpass WWII levels: IMF
June 24, 2020 — 11.00pm
The global recession caused by the
coronavirus pandemic is deeper and will last longer than expected with the
International Monetary Fund warning nations will be left with more debt than at
the end of World War II.
In an updated economic outlook
released on Wednesday night, the fund expects the world's richest economies to
contract by 8 per cent this year, a 1.9 percentage point downgrade from what it
forecast in early April. In 2021, the same economies are expected to see growth
of 4.8 per cent.
Australia will out-perform all but
one of its peers, tipped to suffer a 4.9 per cent contraction this year before
recovering much of that in 2021 with the economy forecast to expand by 4 per
cent. Only South Korea is expected to do better, with its economy predicted to
shrink by 2.1 per cent.
Compared to what the IMF was
forecasting in early January, the coronavirus pandemic is expected to cost the
global economy $US12.5 trillion or $18 trillion.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/overseas-coronavirus-outbreaks-threaten-our-recovery-nev-power/news-story/3482302f80b2a95c824ce67e4ba99ef7
Overseas coronavirus outbreaks
threaten our recovery: Nev Power
Nick
Evans
Perry
Williams
·
12:00AM June 25, 2020
National
COVID-19 Coordination Commission chairman Nev Power has warned that growing
coronavirus outbreaks in the US and South America could slow Australia’s
economic recovery from the pandemic, and potentially even threaten the
resources exports that have kept the nation’s export backbone strong.
Mr
Power told a mining conference on Wednesday the commission’s work was now
focusing on sectors threatened by outbreaks overseas, particularly those
reliant on international travel — including tourism, the services sector and
education.
“This
is not just about the Australian context, but more so how other countries go,”
Mr Power said. “If we look at the world around us today we see other countries
in the depths of the growth of the spread of the virus, particularly South
America.
“In
North America as well, we’ve seen major outbreaks in Texas in the last 24 hours
or so, and of course we’re all waiting and bracing for the impact as it goes
through Africa and other parts of Asia.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/job-vacancies-suffer-record-fall-20200625-p5560t
Job vacancies suffer record fall
John Kehoe Senior writer
Jun
25, 2020 – 12.52pm
Job vacancies recorded their
largest fall on record over the past three months and workers were laid off in
record numbers in arts and recreation, accommodation and food services.
Business restrictions in response
to COVID-19 caused the number of job vacancies to plunge 43 per cent over the
May 2020 quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Amid widespread job cuts, some 93
per cent of businesses reported zero job vacancies last month.
Compounding the income loss from
job losses, average household wealth fell $9982 or 2.3 per cent to $428,585 in
the three months to March 31 due to falling superannuation balances and sharemarket
losses.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rba-wants-more-lending-amid-fears-of-second-spike-in-job-losses-20200626-p556dz
RBA wants more lending amid fears
of second spike in job losses
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Jun
27, 2020 – 12.00am
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe
has urged bank bosses to keep lending, as he expresses fears of a second spike
in unemployment when government assistance winds down after September 30 and
companies restructure their operations.
Dr Lowe was speaking at a meeting
on Friday afternoon organised by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh
Frydenberg to discuss with banks the need to be flexible with $226 billion in
loan deferrals that are also scheduled to end on September 30.
Before the meeting, Mr Morrison
confirmed there would be new government assistance packages for certain industry
sectors which, due to ongoing restrictions, would not rebound as quickly as
others beyond September when JobKeeper and other government assistance ceases.
But the sector-specific packages,
such as those already announced for the arts, entertainment and residential
housing sectors, would require additional support from the banks, as well as
the industrial relations system, to maximise the prospects of recovery.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-surplus-replaced-by-largest-budget-deficit-on-record-20200626-p556fe.html
Budget surplus replaced by largest
budget deficit on record
June 26, 2020 — 1.38pm
The Morrison government has
overseen the largest budget deficit in history with new figures revealing the
nation's finances are $64.9 billion in the red with still another month of the
financial year to run.
Data released by the Finance
Department on Friday showed that through May, the budget bottom line
deteriorated by $24.9 billion - or almost $1 billion a day - as tax revenues collapsed
and the government sought to protect the economy from the coronavirus pandemic.
This year was supposed to show the
first budget surplus in more than a decade, with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg
predicting in December a $5 billion surplus for the 2019-20 financial year.
Instead, analysts now believe the
deficit this year could approach $90 billion and next year's deficit climb
beyond $200 billion.
-----
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/foreign-investors-make-huge-profits-in-australia-we-should-have-a-fair-share-20200626-p556fq.html
Foreign investors make huge
profits in Australia, we should have a fair share
Economics Editor
June 26, 2020 — 1.04pm
Australia has been a recipient of
foreign investment in almost every year since the arrival of the First Fleet in
1788. Yet for much of that time the idea of foreigners being allowed to own so
much of our businesses, mines, farms and land is one many ordinary Australians
have found hard to accept.
For older Australians, the thought
of “selling off the farm” to foreigners makes them distinctly uncomfortable.
Why can’t we do it ourselves and own it ourselves?
The short answer is, we could. But
had we chosen that path we wouldn’t be nearly as prosperous today as we are. As
the Productivity Commission reminds us in a paper published this week, you need
money to set up a business, let alone a whole industry.
-----
Health Issues.
-----
https://www.miragenews.com/pharmacy-agreement-updated-but-not-upgraded/
Pharmacy agreement updated but not
upgraded
24 July, 2020
Australian patients and taxpayers
will contribute more than $25 billion over five years under the new Community
Pharmacy Agreement yet consumers have little effective say in this central part
of the health system.
The Consumers Health Forum is
disappointed that the new Seventh Community Pharmacy Agreement between the
Federal Government and pharmacy owners has failed to give more weight to
proposals for greater input from consumers and more transparency and deregulation
to better meet community interests, the CEO, Leanne Wells, said.
The Agreement was announced on 12 June
and made public on 19 June.
“Pharmacies are the most common
point of contact between consumers and the health system, yet the Government
and the Pharmacy Guild have declined to accept a place for the consumers at
negotiations for the agreement.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/don-t-bet-on-the-death-of-private-health-insurance-20200623-p555c9
Don't bet on the death of private
health insurance
Australia's
private health funds reject the claim they are in a "death spiral".
Mark Fitzgibbon and Craig Drummond are optimistic about the post-COVID-19
world.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun
23, 2020 – 4.36pm
Before the world heard of
COVID-19, Australian health experts were declaring private health insurance to
be in a “death spiral” of increasing costs and decreasing
membership.
But as Australia emerges, even in
fits and starts, from the health crisis, the chief executives of Australia’s
two listed private health funds, Mark Fitzgibbon at NIB and Craig Drummond at
Medibank Private, are sounding remarkably chipper about future prospects.
Rather than younger, healthier
members continuing to opt out, for example, they insist technology will help
reduce costs while new levels of coverage and efficiency will persuade more
people, including healthy young people, that private insurance really does offer
value for money.
The
funds always rejected the idea they would make big savings from the virus due
to the sudden drop in elective surgery.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/private-health-insurers-want-rule-changes-to-entice-younger-members-20200623-p5559j.html
Private health insurers want rule
changes to entice younger members
June 28, 2020 — 12.00am
Health insurers are calling for
rule changes to make their products more appealing to young Australians, whose
exodus from funds has accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic as
unemployment soars.
Funds are struggling to hang on to
members despite offering temporary premium waivers, delayed annual increases
and even cash-back offers for those unable to use their insurance. They say
they need a long-term solution to reverse the decline.
With delayed annual premium rises
due to kick in on October 1, five days before the federal budget, health funds
are lobbying for changes such as allowing parents to keep children on their
family policy until age 30 and allowing funds to pay for GP
visits to help prevent young people from leaving the private healthcare system.
Health funds generally allow young
adults to stay on their parent's policies only if they are under 25, unmarried
and earning less than $20,000 a year, and the current rules prevent them from
extending the age limit.
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/cold-war-with-china-lays-bare-us-view-of-australia-20200621-p554pm
'Cold war' with China lays bare US
view of Australia
The
US continues to show its tendency to take Australia for granted, and to demand
positions and stances on China that its junior ally simply cannot afford to
deliver.
James Curran
Jun
22, 2020 – 10.02am
Even before the onset of
coronavirus, it had become something of a truism to talk of US–China relations
plunging into a new era of heightened geopolitical competition.
The element of danger in all this
comes not from the risk of it sparking a major military conflict — which
remains unlikely. It comes with the reinforcement on both sides of existing stereotypes.
If US minds are made up that China
already poses an economic and military threat, then the coming of the pandemic,
which has taken so many US lives and ushered in levels of unemployment
approaching those seen in the Great Depression, is already intensifying the
antagonism towards China in the US policy community and wider public.
Indeed, there is emerging a new
consensus in Washington that the era of engagement with China, which held from
the time of President Richard Nixon’s visit in 1972, is now at an end.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/six-trump-rally-staff-contract-covid-19-20200621-p554mg.html
COVID testing a 'double-edged
sword', Donald Trump tells rally
Updated June 21, 2020 —
12.27pm first published at 8.29am
Washington: Donald Trump has told thousands of
cheering supporters he had asked US officials to slow down testing for the
novel coronavirus, calling it a "double-edged sword" that led to more
cases being discovered.
The US President ignored health
warnings to go through with his first rally in 110 days - one of the largest
indoor gatherings in the world during the outbreak. It was meant to restart his
re-election effort less than five months before the President faces voters
again.
Trump told supporters at the event
in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where many were not wearing face masks, that the US had
tested 25 million people, far more than other countries.
"When you do testing to that
extent, you're gonna find more people you're gonna find more cases. So I said
to my people slow the testing down, please," he said.
A White House official said Trump
was joking about his call for a slowdown in testing.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-rupture-with-china-is-permanent-20200621-p554r8
The rupture with China is
permanent
Calls
from Australian business leaders to mend the diplomatic relationship – or at
least to not further widen the division - now seem from a distant political
era.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun
22, 2020 – 4.45pm
Josh Frydenberg was keen to extend
the Five Eyes intelligence grouping of Australia, the US, UK, Canada,
New Zealand and Australia to finance ministers. He initiated and hosted the
first such call last Friday – with more calls to be scheduled regularly.
Sharing economic intelligence is as vital as sharing national security
intelligence in this new COVID-19 world and of obvious benefit to Australia.
But the backdrop to the call is
also the shared sense of confrontation with China among traditional Anglo
allies as well as among so many of China’s near neighbours. That ranges from
China's economic intrusions to more traditional military and security concerns
being ramped up by China's more aggressive behaviour under Xi Jinping.
Not that Scott Morrison’s recent
warning Australia is under large-scale cyber security attacks suggests any
optimism China will change. Nor are cyber assaults from offshore a new threat
although increasing in severity and sophistication over recent months.
It is more a prod to Australian businesses to upgrade inadequate
security systems
and preparations to counter such attacks. That will include closer co-operation
with Australia's Cyber Security Centre and adoption of planned new
industry standards.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-sharp-spike-in-cases-makes-donald-trumps-white-house-nervous/news-story/3f120249d4c561077a41e261849be1ab
Coronavirus: Sharp spike in cases
makes Donald Trump’s White House nervous
Cameron
Stewart
·
June 23, 2020
A
sharp spike in new coronavirus cases in the United States
threatens to sabotage Donald Trump’s hopes of an economic revival before the
November election.
The
spike, which has seen the number of new cases jump suddenly from around 20,000
per day to around 30,000 a day, is also likely to reshape the election campaign
with the Trump White House reconsidering their strategy after the poor turnout
at the Trump rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Health
officials in the US have been alarmed by the new coronavirus trends which come
as the country’s economy reopens and as people travel and socialise again after
three months of virtual lockdown.
Figures
show that coronavirus cases are now rising in 23 states, with 11 of those
showing steep increases. The number of new cases is falling in just 17 states
with rates in the other 10 states remaining steady.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/india-picks-a-side-in-the-new-cold-war-20200623-p5557o
India picks a side in the new cold
war
There
is near-consensus in Indian policymaking that China is a hostile power and the
only feasible response is to move closer to the US and to Asian democracies,
such as Japan and Australia.
Gideon Rachman Columnist
Updated
Jun 23, 2020 – 12.27pm, first published at 9.48am
The Sino-Soviet split was a
critical moment in the Cold War. A Sino-Indian split could be just as crucial
to the second cold war that seems to be developing
between the US and China.
Until now, the Indian government,
led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has tried to avoid choosing sides in the
fast-developing antagonism between Washington and Beijing.
But a parting of the ways between
India and China now seems inevitable following last week's border clashes
between the two nations' armies, which left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead
and an unknown number of Chinese casualties.
Modi has met President Xi Jinping
of China several times since becoming India's leader in 2014 and has made five
visits there. As recently as last October, the Indian and Chinese leaders held
a friendly summit, after which Modi hailed "a new era of co-operation
between our two countries".
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-billionaire-predicts-a-big-v-economic-rebound-in-next-few-months-20200623-p5555a.html
Wall Street billionaire predicts a
'big V' economic rebound in next few months
By Heather
Perlberg and Hema Parmar
June 23, 2020 — 6.08am
Steve Schwarzman, chief executive
officer of Blackstone Group said the economy is likely to benefit from a V-type
recovery in the next few months.
The co-founder of the world's
biggest alternative asset management firm weighed in on markets in an interview
during the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual event.
"You'll see a big V in terms
of the economy going up for the next few months because it's been closed,"
said Schwarzman.
Markets are benefiting from both
liquidity and optimism that the coronavirus crisis can eventually be contained,
Schwarzman said, but he cautioned on the economy, "It'll take quite a
while before we sync up and get back to 2019 levels."
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fauci-says-us-is-seeing-a-disturbing-surge-in-coronavirus-infections-20200624-p555ht.html
Fauci says US is seeing a
'disturbing surge' in coronavirus infections
June 24, 2020 — 3.50am
New York: Dr Anthony Fauci, the top US
infectious disease expert, says the country is seeing a "disturbing
surge" of coronavirus infections and that the next two weeks will be
critical to tamping down hotspots around the US.
Testifying before the House Energy
and Commerce Committee on Tuesday, Dr Fauci also said that the White House
coronavirus taskforce was never told to slow down testing, seemingly
contradicting comments by President Trump just hours earlier.
Four top US public health
officials and members of President Donald Trump's coronavirus task force said
that he has not asked them to slow down testing for the virus.
Trump has repeatedly said that
better US testing has led to a higher number of identified coronavirus cases
across the country, and at a political rally on Saturday said he had asked
"my people" to "slow the testing down" because increased
screening was revealing more infections, making the country look bad.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-trust-in-china-and-the-us-dropping-rapidly-lowy-poll-20200623-p5558n.html
Australians' trust in China and the
US dropping rapidly: Lowy poll
June 24, 2020 — 12.00am
Australians feel less safe,
increasingly distrustful of China, disappointed in the United States and fear
the economy is about to tank, according to an annual survey by the Lowy
Institute, but there is some good news.
As coronavirus continues to ravage
countries around the globe,
faith in Beijing has fallen to record lows with only 23 per cent of Australians
trusting China to act responsibly in the world, a 29-point drop in only two
years.
Only 22 per cent say they have
confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do
the right thing in world affairs, down from 43 per cent in 2018, while nine in ten Australians
want the government to look for other markets to reduce our economic dependence
on China.
According to the think tank's
annual survey of local attitudes towards the world, a bare majority of
Australians (51 per cent) trust the United States "a great deal" or
"somewhat" to act responsibly in the world, 30 percentage points
lower than the high point in 2009.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/america-is-leaving-a-dangerous-post-virus-vacuum-20200624-p555j6
America is leaving a dangerous
post-virus vacuum
The
US should be mobilising the world's investible funds. Instead its economic
policy is becoming bogged in partisanship and market distortion.
Mohamed El-Erian Contributor
Jun
24, 2020 – 1.30pm
What does the future hold for the
global economy? As it stands, the most likely answer, unfortunately, is lower
growth, worsening inequality, distorted markets and rising financial risks. But
this outcome is not preordained. With timely changes to the policy paradigm,
policymakers can lay the groundwork for a more dynamic, inclusive, and resilient
economy.
The economic damage wrought by the
COVID-19 crisis
in the second quarter of 2020 was even worse than expected: economic activity
plummeted, inequality rose, and elevated financial markets decoupled even more
from economic reality. And with a vaccine yet to be developed, the path out of
the pandemic – and the associated economic crisis – remains deeply uncertain.
The world’s leading international
economic institutions – the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and the World
Bank – now warn that it may take at least two years for the global economy to
regain what has been lost to COVID-19. If the major economies face additional
waves of infections, recovery would take even longer.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-war-on-supply-chains-20200624-p555l1
The dangerous war on supply chains
Trade
is a vital part of the global response to a pandemic, including the creation
and distribution of the vaccine we need. Trade must also remain a large part of
the global economy more broadly.
Martin Wolf Columnist
Jun
24, 2020 – 10.41am
"One of the things that this
crisis has taught us, sir, is that we are dangerously overdependent on a global
supply chain for our medicines, like penicillin; our medical supplies, like
masks; and our medical equipment, like ventilators.”
Thus, did Peter Navarro,
an influential adviser of US President Donald Trump, draw lessons from the
COVID-19 crisis for American trade policy.
This view is seductive to
protectionists. But it is wrong. The lesson from the crisis is to be better
prepared. Self-sufficiency in “essential products” would not be a good way to
achieve this. On the contrary, it would be a costly error.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/america-s-virus-battle-is-on-the-verge-of-disintegration-20200625-p555xe
America's virus battle is on the
verge of disintegration
Jacob Greber United States
correspondent
Updated
Jun 25, 2020 – 7.54am, first published at 7.40am
Washington | America's months-long battle to
contain the coronavirus
is on the verge of disintegrating as infection numbers accelerate alarmingly
across dozens of states in a sign that early easing of restrictions last month
is backfiring.
Even as reports emerged that the White House
is preparing to halt federal funding for testing, nine states reported record
rolling seven-day average infections, while California, Florida, South Carolina
and Oklahoma posted single-day highs.
More than 36,000 new COVID-19
cases were reported on Wednesday (Thursday AEST), the most in a single day
after beating the previous 34,203-case record on April 25. The surge takes the
US total to more than 2.3 million cases with at least 120,000 Americans dead.
Wall Street tumbled as investors bailed out of
hotels, airlines, casinos and even beer brewers, on fresh fears of a surge in
numbers and the governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut - the
tri-state epicentre of the first surge in cases in March, April and into May -
said they would enforce a 14-day quarantine for visitors from nine mostly
southern states where there is now "significant community spread".
-----
https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/arts-and-culture/grief-rocks-the-muslim-world-as-islam-s-holiest-sites-off-limits-20200624-p555oc
Grief rocks the Muslim world as
Islam's holiest sites off limits
Saudi
Arabia has effectively cancelled the hajj for the first time in history,
leaving millions devastated.
Ben Hubbard and Declan Walsh
Jun
25, 2020 – 6.23am
For much of his life, Abdul-Halim
al-Akoum stashed away cash in hopes of one day travelling from his Lebanese
mountain village to perform the hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca that all Muslims
who can are obliged to make once in their lives.
He was all set to go this year
until the coronavirus pandemic forced Saudi Arabia to
effectively cancel the hajj for what some scholars say may be the first time in
history.
"It is the dream of every
Muslim believer to visit Mecca and do the hajj," says al-Akoum, 61, a village
official. "But the pandemic came with no warning and took away that
dream."
The Saudi announcement sent shock
waves of sadness and disappointment across the Muslim world, upending the plans
of millions of believers to make a trip that many look forward to their whole
lives and which, for many, marks a profound spiritual awakening.
A 72-year-old retired port worker
in Pakistan will stay home, despite his six children having pooled their money
to finance his trip. A mother in Kenya will forgo visiting sites she has long
dreamed of seeing. An Egyptian school administrator named Zeinab Ibrahim burst
into tears.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-wants-a-compliant-australia-malcolm-turnbull-says-20200623-p555a0.html
China wants a compliant Australia,
Malcolm Turnbull says
June 25, 2020 — 5.00am
China expects Australia to be
"compliant" with its aggressive foreign policy moves, treating it not
as an equal in power but as a weaker country, according to former prime
minister Malcolm Turnbull.
In an exclusive interview with The Age
and The
Sydney Morning Herald, Mr Turnbull also said China had developed
islands in the South China Sea to such an extent that, short of "kinetic
action" or warfare, there was nothing south-east Asian countries — or the
United States, Japan and Australia — could do to demilitarise them.
China had "created facts on
the ground, above the water, in a way that is quite contrary to international
law", Mr Turnbull said.
"That's been determined by
the court in The Hague. Unless you are prepared to take kinetic action, there
is nothing you can do about those islands," he said referring to The
Philippines' 2016 win in the International Court, which ruled against China's
claim to historic rights over most of the South China Sea.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/bolton-s-book-is-a-terrifying-warning-about-what-trump-could-still-do-20200624-p555kv
Bolton’s book is a terrifying
warning about what Trump could still do
Former
National Security Advisor John Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened, shows
geopolitical ignorance is no longer funny when it jeopardises safety.
Jim Townsend
Jun
25, 2020 – 9.49am
Americans’ notorious lack of
geographic knowledge has given rise to a staple of television comedy: the
person-in-the-street ambush interview, where the hapless victim is often asked
to point out countries or US states on a map. Hilarity ensues.
Former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened,
features another hapless American wrestling with geographic questions, such as
whether Finland is part of Russia. The problem with this comic setup, of
course, is that the scene is playing in the White House, and the not-so-hapless
victim is the President of the United States.
Geopolitical ignorance ceases to
be funny when pratfalls affect US national security. Trump’s ignorance about
the role allies and NATO play in US national security has led him to say and do
things in Europe that have led allies’ trust in the US to plummet.
His earliest interaction with NATO
in 2017 had him question the US commitment to the alliance’s mutual defence
guarantee – Article 5, its very reason for existence – and it got worse from
there. His ignorance of how NATO is funded and of where allies are in fact
deficient has led him to charge that allies are taking
advantage
of the US.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/disaster-unfolding-in-the-us-as-virus-resurgence-hits-new-peaks-20200625-p55632.html
Disaster unfolding in the US as
virus resurgence hits new peaks
By Nomaan
Merchant
June 25, 2020 — 1.47pm
Houston: A coronavirus resurgence is
wiping out two months of progress in the US and sending infections to dire new
levels across the nation's south and west, with hospital administrators and
health experts warning that politicians and a tired-of-being-cooped-up public
are letting a disaster unfold.
Coronavirus cases are climbing
rapidly among young adults in a number of US states where bars, stores and
restaurants have reopened - a disturbing generational shift that not only puts
them in greater peril than many realise but poses an even bigger danger to
older people who cross their paths.
The US recorded a one-day total of
34,700 new confirmed COVID-19 cases, the highest level since late April, when
the number peaked at 36,400, according to a count kept by Johns Hopkins
University. The
Washington Post recorded 38,115 US infections on Wednesday, more
than any previous day in the pandemic, and the New York Times put the figure at 36,126, the
nation's second highest daily figure, and the highest in months.
While newly confirmed infections
have been declining steadily in early hot spots such as New York and New
Jersey, several other states set single-day records this week, including
Arizona, California, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas and Oklahoma. Some of them also
broke hospitalisation records, as did North Carolina and South Carolina.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/the-virus-is-beating-america-again-and-nobody-knows-what-to-do-20200626-p556ff
US faces bleak scenario of death
and disruption
America
is losing the fight against itself and a pandemic that doesn’t recognise
political divisions.
Jacob Greber United States
correspondent
Jun
26, 2020 – 1.30pm
Driving through New York early this
week for the first time since January was a revelation. Despite having shifted
just that morning to “phase two” of the city’s long-awaited reopening – which
allows restaurants to offer outdoor dining for the first time since mid-March –
Manhattan was still, remarkably, a ghost town.
It took less than seven minutes to
drive from the Holland Tunnel exit southward beneath Battery Park and back
north along FDR Drive to Midtown, looping around the bottom of the island. As
any New Yorker will tell you – try that on a normal Monday morning and those 10
kilometres could take you an hour. Most don't even bother.
But almost at the same time as New
York gets a green light to slowly creep back to life after months hosting America's COVID-19 ground zero, other parts of the country are
only now beginning their journeys into the nightmare stage of this pandemic.
Incredibly, and despite all the
economic devastation of social distancing, America has resolutely failed to “flatten” its curve and now sits on the cusp of more
disaster.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/democracies-must-show-china-what-we-stand-for/news-story/e3d303dcefc3703d9d932b86fc722cb6
Democracies
must show China what we stand for
Chris
Patten
·
8:04PM June 25, 2020
It
is necessary to know some history in order to draw the right lessons from it.
All too often, alleged parallels and similarities seem far-fetched on close
examination. So, when it was suggested recently that China’s recent behaviour —
bullying, lying, and violating treaties — was similar to that of Germany prior
to World War I, I was doubtful.
In
1911, for example, Germany’s Wilhelm II provoked an international crisis by
deploying a gunboat to Agadir, Morocco to try to squeeze concessions out of
France and drive a wedge between that country and Britain. Instead, the episode
convinced France and Britain of Germany’s aggressive intentions — a conclusion
borne out three years later by the outbreak of war.
Maybe
it is too pessimistic to draw similar conclusions today about the behaviour of
the Communist Party of China. But the events of the past few months surely call
for a co-ordinated response by the rest of the world, and especially by liberal
democracies. If Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aggressive behaviour is to be
discouraged, we need to get together and stick together.
-----
I
look forward to comments on all this!
-----
David.