This appeared in The Conversation last week.
New online tool can predict your melanoma risk
March 12, 2018 6.04am AEDT
People who are unable to tan and who have moles on their skin are among those at heightened risk of developing melanoma. from shutterstock.com
Authors
Editorial Intern
- Sasha Petrova
Deputy Editor: Health + Medicine
Interviewed
- David Whiteman
Professor and Group Leader at the Cancer Control Group, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute
- H. Peter Soyer
Professor of Dermatology, The University of Queensland
- Hassan Vally
Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology, La Trobe University
Australians over the age of 40 can now calculate their risk of developing melanoma with a new online test. The risk predictor tool estimates a person’s melanoma risk over the next 3.5 years based on seven risk factors.
Melanoma is the third most common cancer in Australia and the most dangerous form of skin cancer.
The seven risk factors the tool uses are age, sex, ability to tan, number of moles at age 21, number of skin lesions treated, hair colour and sunscreen use.
The tool was developed by researchers at the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute. Lead researcher Professor David Whiteman explained he and his team determined the seven risk factors by following more than 40,000 Queenslanders since 2010, and analysing their data.
The seven risk factors are each weighted differently. The tool’s algorithm uses these to assign a person into one of five risk categories: very much below average, below average, average, above average, and very much above average.
“This online risk predictor will help identify those with the highest likelihood of developing melanoma so that they and their doctors can decide on how to best manage their risk,” Professor Whiteman said.
After completing the short test, users will be offered advice, such as whether they should see their doctor. A reading of “above average” or “very much above average” will recommend a visit to the doctor to explore possible options for managing their melanoma risk.
But Professor Whiteman cautions that people with a below average risk shouldn’t become complacent.
“Even if you are at below average risk, it doesn’t mean you are at low risk – just lower than the average Australian,” he said.
An estimated one in 17 Australians will be diagnosed with melanoma by their 85th birthday.
The test is targeted for people aged 40 and above as this was the age range of the cohort studied.
However, melanoma remains the most common cancer in Australians under 40.
Professor Whiteman said that the test may be useful for those under 40, but it may not be as accurate, as that wasn’t the demographic it was based on.
But he added complete accuracy couldn’t be guaranteed even for the target demographic.
“I don’t think it’s possible that we’ll ever get to 100%. I think that’s a holy grail that we aspire to, but in reality, cancers are very complex diseases and their causality includes many, many, factors, including unfortunately some random factors.”
The prognosis for melanoma patients is significantly better when it is detected earlier. The University of Queensland’s Professor of Dermatology H. Peter Soyer explained that the five-year survival rate for melanoma is 90%. But this figure jumps to 98% for patients diagnosed at the very early stages.
“At the end of the day, everything that raises awareness for melanomas and for skin cancer is beneficial,” Professor Soyer said.
Dr Hassan Vally, a senior lecturer in epidemiology at La Trobe University, said the way risk is often communicated is hard for people to grasp. But he said this model would provide people with a tangible measure of their risk of disease, and point them towards what they may be able to do to reduce it.
“Everything comes back to how people perceive their risk, and how can they make sense of it.
"If it makes people more aware of their risks of disease that’s a good thing, and if that awareness leads to people taking action and improving their health then that’s great.”
Here is the link to the original article on the Conversation.
There is also press coverage here:
- Updated Mar 13 2018 at 7:03 AM
New melanoma test online could stop you dying from skin cancer, say researchers
by Stuart Layt
People over 40 will now be able to check their risk of developing melanoma using a fast new online tool designed by Queensland researchers.
The QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute developed the online test based on data from nearly 42,000 people aged from their forties to seventies.
Professor David Whiteman from QIMR Berghofer said early detection of melanoma is vital, and the tool they've developed can help people identify if they're at risk.
"It's up to individuals to talk to their doctors about whether they need regular skin checks," Professor Whiteman said.
2000 deaths this year
"This online risk predictor will help identify those people with the highest likelihood of developing melanoma so that they and their doctors can decide how to best manage their risk."
……
The risk predictor is now online at the QIMR website.
AAP
More here:
It’s good to see some really useful scientific innovations being developed and implemented.
David.
Agree David this is a good example of innovation at work at a state level targeting a very real issue. Be good to see what the national body is going to dazzle us with.
ReplyDeleteAs someone from the sunshine state this is great news and they rightfully deserve applause ( and funding). The fact ADHA has failed to kick start innovation is probably a sign they are struggling to recruit talent. A quick scan shows the states and territories are replication architecture and innovation hub power houses. What could have been a nationally COAG funded centre of research innovation and development breathing new life into standards and industry has fallen well short. I guess the best they can do at ADHA is come up with innovative ideas to recast HR performance templates and shuffle paper.
ReplyDeleteCome on guys, don't forget that to ADHA Digital Health = MyHR. MyHR means just run the thing as it was originally designed but with lipstick on. The Royle review identified lots of shortcomings, which have not been addressed and in fact cannot be addressed with the design its been lumbered with. Health picked on the "if everyone had a MyHR, we might use it" bleating from medicos and decided to make it opt-out as it is easy to do and conforms with their real agenda, just gather data, forget about it being useful.
ReplyDeleteIs it not time that the Minister actually demonstrated the usefulness of all this data? Surely there must be enough in there to start at least generating analytical based reports so we can test all this theory. Should be a precursor to moving to a costly opt out.
ReplyDeleteMArch 22, 2018 2:17. That is sadly true. To add to that they got rid of internal people that could have steered the whole thing towards a better outcome and excited many external experts in this field. The article demonstrates that evolution has passed the ADOHA by.
ReplyDelete