July 18, 2019 Edition.
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It continues to unwind in the US with Trump working to jail huge numbers of ‘illegal’ immigrants and conducting a verbal campaign to try and have the US Federal Reserve lower interest rates among other idiocies like persisting with a trade-war that seems to be headed for some sort of stalemate and moving closer to a war with Iran.
In the UK Boris seems now to be odds on to be the next PM.
In OZ we are having a go at trying to finally sort out the constitutional place of our First Peoples. Already it has gone just crazily political and sad – we will have to wait and see what happens but I am not optimistic at present. We are also having a range of freedom debates (religion and the press) which are really getting down into the weeds.
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Major Issues.
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'Alarming': University cheats face jail time, big fines
Jul 8, 2019 — 12.00am
Cheating services have expanded at an "alarming rate" across university campuses and the thriving industry has prompted the federal education department to crack down on businesses offering to help tertiary students cheat on their exams and assignments.
Offenders will face up to two years in jail and a $210,000 fine under federal laws designed to crackdown on academic fraudsters.
Researcher Tracey Bretag said cheating has spread like wildfire across all universities and TAFEs, including her own, the University of South Australia.
"For every assessment that I set, and despite the fact that I spend a great deal of time in class talking about academic integrity, I still encounter examples of contract cheating," she said.
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Scott Morrison is no progressive and he's going to change the country
Sean Kelly
Columnist and former adviser to Labor prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.
Updated July 8, 2019 — 6.52amfirst published at 12.10am
I have twice recently committed the sin of political optimism. The first was when I thought Tony Abbott would grow into the role of prime minister. The second was when I made the same mistake about Malcolm Turnbull.
So, I’m fallible, no surprises there. The broader lesson is this: the prime ministership doesn’t miraculously change those who hold it. It’s a job, and like any job you can get better at the nuts and bolts. But you come out the same person you went in. Abbott, for example, stayed a daffily old-fashioned boofhead.
Turnbull, too, remained himself. His woeful political instincts stayed woeful. He waffled luxuriantly. The most important element of continuity – overlooked amidst the disappointment - was that he ended up being what both his fans and enemies expected: a Labor prime minister with some Liberal leanings. His largest legacy might be embedding Labor policies, the National Disability Insurance Scheme and the Gonski school reforms. He acted on childcare and renewables. He tried to do something on climate. The marriage plebiscite was awful, but the result – marriage equality – was undeniably progressive. He played an historically important role, if not for the reasons his colleagues hoped.
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The missing piece of the Australian economic puzzle
Eryk Bagshaw
Economics correspondent
July 7, 2019 — 11.45pm
What is productivity? And how does one produce it?
I can hear the groans already. That ever elusive term that politicians bandy about like its going out of fashion. Often it's used to justify the intangible - we are not sure what it is, but we are told we need more of it.
Technically, productivity is the rate of output per unit of input. In Australia, the rate at which we have been growing that output per person has slowed to historic lows.
The more efficiently we can produce things, the faster our living standards and wages grow, so it's in everyone’s interest to fix the problem.
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Why Australia's banks should fear Facebook's Libra
By Ross Buckley
Updated July 8, 2019 — 10.51amfirst published at 12.02am
Banks should be afraid, very afraid, as Facebook will issue its cryptocurrency, the Libra, next year. Libra will function as a stable alternative currency tied to major government currencies. Its potential to disrupt banking in Australia is massive.
English regulators are harrumphing that they see no reason why Libra will succeed when such good payment options are available in pounds sterling. They are right and wrong. Right to suggest Libra’s usefulness will initially be limited in highly developed countries like England and Australia; and wrong to imply Libra won’t be a game changer. Some 1.7 billion people today lack access to the most basic financial services. Libra is mobile money in the Kenyan M-Pesa, mobile phone-based money transfer sense, on a global scale – it will take off in poor countries.
Remittance costs from Australia to the Pacific are among the highest in the world. A Pacific Islander picking fruit here today may have to spend $50 to send home $500. With Libra that transfer should only cost cents. Likewise, expect generous discounts from Uber next year for paying in Libra. Uber is a member of the association managing Libra because it wants to stop paying the over US$800 million it does annually for credit card merchant fees.
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Stocks and bonds: are they both right?
- 6:17AM July 8, 2019
In the past few weeks, the Australian sharemarket has regained its 2007 record high while the 10-year government bond yield has hit a record low – 1.2615 per cent on June 25.
Stocks are up 23 per cent since Christmas Eve last year. Over the same period, the bond yield has halved. Investors in shares reckon things are great, couldn’t better; investors in bonds are apparently very gloomy, forecasting recession.
The difference is even more dramatic elsewhere: the US yield curve is predicting recession while stocks have been “record-highing” week after week, and has employment been strong as well – Friday’s non-farm payrolls growth for June was 224,000, versus market expectation of 160,000. In Denmark the entire yield curve, from short to long, is priced to yield less than zero.
When stock prices and bond yields go in different directions, the cry goes up: which is right? They can’t both be right! Can they? Surely one lot of investors is about to be proved very expensively wrong.
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Labor dumps negative gearing, franking credits policy: Albo
- By Richard Ferguson. Sarah Elks
- July 8, 2019
Anthony Albanese has given his strongest signal yet that will he dump Bill Shorten’s negative gearing and franking credits reforms, responding “No” when asked they were still party policy.
The Opposition Leader has repeatedly said that all of Labor’s failed election agenda was up for review, but not suggested that the controversial tax plans were no longer ALP policy.
Speaking at a roadside press conference in Brisbane this morning, Mr Albanese was asked whether Labor’s policy platform still contained its election promises to reform negative gearing rules and change franking credit refunds.
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Queensland mining health and safety committee in hiatus over ‘gender imbalance’
- 1:36PM July 8, 2019
A Queensland government mine safety committee was forced into hiatus for nearly four months because it didn’t have the right “gender representation,” during a spate of six mining deaths in the state.
Queensland Mines Minister Anthony Lynham today confirmed the committee — which has representatives from the government mines inspectorate, the Queensland Resources Council, and relevant unions — would be re-established this week.
The committee has not met since March 20, but had to cancel its June meeting, The Australian understands.
“The committee has to be, certain representation has to be made in the committee, you have to make sure of gender representation is respected,” Dr Lynham said.
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Strategies to cope in a market sell off
Historically the logical move was to shift to bonds that would benefit from the fall in interest rates. With rates so low, it's not a compelling argument.
Giselle Roux
Jul 8, 2019 — 11.05am
This has been a fresh-air equity rally, with corporate earnings expectations falling or flat. Yet stock prices are apparently untroubled and price-earnings ratios have ratcheted
Below the hood, the equity sectors that have been at the forefront are bifurcated between juicy high growth stocks and the traditionally defensive utilities and consumer staples. It makes it harder to consider where to go now as the middle ground is left in limbo.
The consensus is that we are late, possibly very late, in this economic cycle and that an element of a defensive slant may be appropriate. Rarely has this assignment been harder.
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Other major banks will follow Deutsche
Financial markets were shocked by the radical cuts Deutsche Bank has announced as it tries to restore profitability. Other banks are likely to follow suit.
Jul 8, 2019 — 6.32pm
Financial markets have been sent reeling after Deutsche Bank unveiled the biggest restructuring plan in its history. But it's unlikely to be too long before other major banks follow suit.
Germany's banking giant – which will celebrate its 150th anniversary next year – is planning to sack 18,000 people, or around one-fifth of its workforce, and create a "bad bank" to house €74 billion ($120 billion) of risky assets, including long-term derivatives, in an attempt to escape its financial woes.
More importantly, Deutsche Bank is abandoning its global ambitions as it retreats to its more traditional banking activities.
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Morgan Stanley says 'time to act' and slashes equity view
Jul 8, 2019 — 11.50am
Morgan Stanley has turned negative on equities, warning investors to prepare for the worst expected average returns in almost six years, with Australia unlikely to be immune from any disappointment over corporate earnings.
The downshift from equalweight to underweight came after more than a year of a neutral stance on global equities. "It's time to act," Morgan Stanley's global strategy team said, while alluding to a range of concerns they believe have only increased in the last month.
Those concerns include the ability of central bank policy easing to offset weaker economic data, poorer readings on the economic cycle, and disbelief that a trade truce between the US and China at the Group of 20 meeting will lead to a lasting positive outcome.
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The not-so-secret history of ambassadors trashing their hosts
By Adam Taylor
July 9, 2019 — 10.08am
Washington: After a newspaper published accounts of the British ambassador to the United States describing President Donald Trump as "inept" and "insecure" in private cables to London, the future of Kim Darroch's assignment in Washington looks to be in doubt.
Nigel Farage, an arch anti-establishment voice in Britain - and once an ambassador hopeful himself - has said that Darroch should be fired.
"The sooner he is gone the better," Farage tweeted.
But are Darroch's critical remarks about Trump so unusual? Well, no. There's a long and not-so-secret history of diplomats in a foreign country trashing their hosts in private.
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We must think very carefully before committing to war in the Gulf
By Hossein Esmaeili
Updated July 8, 2019 — 11.37pmfirst published at 11.30pm
Conflict between the United States and Iran is deepening and the two states are marching towards war. The Persian Gulf, where a third of the world’s natural gas and a fifth of the world’s oil is sourced, may soon see another large scale and probably long-lasting international conflict.
Although both US President Donald Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran have declared they are not seeking war, given the circumstances that no party is willing to back down, both countries are steadily drifting towards a full blown international crisis.
If this occurs, it is likely to spread well beyond the Persian Gulf, into the Middle East and beyond. De-escalation of this situation, avoiding military conflict, is possible only if the United States halts its crippling economic sanctions against Iran or if Iran decides to engage in talks with the Trump administration. Neither option appears, at least for now, likely to happen.
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Cold War cloak and dagger on high seas as China sails in
- 12:00AM July 9, 2019
Australian and US ships are being forced to re-embrace Cold War-style training tactics to counter the increasing sophistication of the type of Chinese spy vessel expected to monitor Australia’s largest military training exercises.
As US and Australian strategists prepare to conduct the biennial Talisman Sabre exercise under the full glare of a Chinese spy ship headed for the Queensland coast, a prominent strategic analyst said the growth of China’s military was forcing Western countries to re-embrace Soviet-era training tactics.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s director of defence strategy and national security, Michael Shoebridge, said the presence of the Chinese Type 815G Dongdiao-class surveillance ship would force Australian and US battle planners to be selective in how they used their capabilities.
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Indigenous referendum in three years
Jul 10, 2019 — 9.57am
The Morrison government plans to hold a referendum this parliamentary term to recognise indigenous Australians in the Constitution, Indigenous Australians Minister Ken Wyatt will announce today.
The proposal will also include the so-called voice to Parliament to give the nation's first people's greater say in government decision making.
Mr Wyatt will outline his timetable for recognition in a speech at the National Press Club today, but stresses the public vote will only be held if it meets conditions and has strong support.
"We need consensus, but we'd need the right set of words," Mr Wyatt told the ABC on Wednesday morning.
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Why Labor must change or die
The party that tried to win the election with class warfare has found the real class war raging in its own ranks.
Jul 10, 2019 — 12.00am
This time last year, conservatives were agonising over The Base. A lost tribe, which had supposedly deserted the Liberal Party under the then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. The electorate, the narrative went, cared little for budget surpluses and a growth economy. The future of politics was in fighting for cultural values.
Now, however, it is the Labor Party ripping itself apart to find the centre it thought it held.
Labor is discovering that there is precious little middle ground between the working and progressive classes it aims to unify into its base. As the election results rolled in, the progressives – let’s call them social justice democrats – turned upon the workers. Suddenly the heroes of the labour movement were demoted to “truculent turds” who “voted to turn backwards”. The party that tried to win the election with class warfare has found the real class war raging in its own ranks.
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The house price battle that must be fought
Shane Wright
Senior economics correspondent
July 9, 2019 — 11.30am
An economist friend of mine put the recent slip in housing prices into some perspective. "We've gone from housing that is OMG unaffordable to simply stupid unaffordable," he noted soon after CoreLogic reported house values in Sydney and Melbourne had inched up through June.
Among all the angst and concern over the recent fall in prices across our two largest cities, between 11 and 15 per cent since 2017, what's been forgotten is that by any standard they are still bloody expensive.
The median house price in Sydney is a touch under 11 times median income while in Melbourne it's almost 10. In a global ranking of expensive cities released earlier this year, all of Australia's major capital cities were among the top 20.
Before you start waving a walking stick around and complaining about young whipper snappers never having it so good, go back to the 1990s when the income-to-price ratio was about half what it is now.
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'Troubling': Consumer confidence drops to two-year low despite tax and rate cuts
By Shane Wright
July 10, 2019 — 11.20am
Consumer confidence has fallen to a two-year low as shoppers become increasingly concerned about the state of the economy and their chances of holding on to a job despite the prospect of personal income tax cuts and cheaper mortgages.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute measure of consumer sentiment dropped 4.1 per cent in July with substantial falls in expectations about personal finances and the economy over the next year.
The survey was taken as the government's $158 billion personal income tax package was passed by the Parliament and soon after the Reserve Bank of Australia sliced official interest rates to a fresh all-time low of 1 per cent.
Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said there were serious issues arising from the survey which pointed to troubles ahead.
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Australian ETF market could be worth $100 billion by 2022
By John Collett
July 10, 2019 — 4.54pm
The Australian ETF market has reached a new milestone, hitting $50 billion in assets under management after a surge of $10 billion in the first half of this year and predictions it could hit $100 billion by 2022.
Most ETFs are "passive" investments in that they track a market index, such as market indices and sub-indices in Australia and overseas, or track prices, such as commodity prices, and even currency exchange rates.
There are roughly 200 ETFs listed on the Australian market, whose units are traded the same way as shares.
They are proving popular with retail investors, especially those with self-managed super funds, because they can add instant diversification at low cost to portfolios often skewed heavily to domestic investments, such as the big dividend-paying shares.
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No sign of energy policy as Victoria heads for summer blackouts
Jul 11, 2019 — 12.00am
Failures at two power stations in Victoria that will take several months to repair have put aluminium smelters and other large industrial energy users on edge amid the escalating risk of blackouts and sky-high electricity prices next summer.
With memories still fresh of forced power cuts to hundreds of thousands of customers in Victoria during a heatwave in January, news of the extended outages at an Origin Energy gas generator and an AGL Energy coal plant has left industry with an uncertain future.
"We are very concerned not only around the strength of the system but about what energy prices are going to do during summer," said Andrew Richards, head of the Energy Users Association of Australia, which represents BlueScope Steel, Glencore and other majors.
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Was keeping rates on hold a mistake?
Jul 11, 2019 — 12.17pm
The Reserve Bank's focus on financial stability over inflation may prove to be three times more costly than it is worth, according to the bank's own researchers.
Keeping interest rates higher than macroeconomic conditions would warrant because of concerns about financial instability, otherwise known as "leaning against the wind", is widely seen as a costly move.
"We estimate the costs of leaning against the wind to be three to eight times larger than the benefit of avoiding financial crises," the central bank's Trent Saunders and Peter Tulip write in a paper published Thursday.
"Most of the international research finds that interest rates have too small an effect on the probability of a crisis for this benefit to be worth higher unemployment."
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'Nobody is above the law': Journalists committed a crime, says Peter Dutton
By Bevan Shields
July 12, 2019 — 9.07am
Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has rejected demands to drop police action against three high-profile journalists, declaring reporters are committing a crime by receiving top-secret documents.
As the minister responsible for the Australian Federal Police, Mr Dutton has come under pressure to order the agency to abandon any investigation into ABC journalists Dan Oakes and Sam Clark and News Corp reporter Annika Smethurst.
Australian Federal Police officers raided the ABC’s Sydney office and a News Corp journalist's house.
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Press freedom inquiry must have wide terms of reference
July 12, 2019 — 12.05am
When Australian high commissioner George Brandis rose to address a select audience at the Latvian embassy in London early this week about the challenges to liberal democracy, including threats to freedom of the press and freedom of speech, he almost certainly didn't have himself in mind as an example.
Yet, as the Herald this week has revealed, laws on access to telecommunications metadata that Mr Brandis pioneered during his stint as federal attorney-general have been used by the Australian Federal Police to track the activities of journalists.
Human rights commissioner Ed Santow has warned that laws passed on Mr Brandis' watch about the use of metadata are being overused in a way that can make it hard for journalists to work with confidential sources. The AFP disclosed that it accessed journalists' metadata, such as information about sites they visited, 58 times last year.
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Savers 'staring down the barrel at zero interest rates' as big banks cut
By Shane Wright
July 12, 2019 — 11.50am
Two of the nation's biggest banks have slashed key deposit rates to virtually zero, leaving millions of Australians who depend on the interest from their savings with almost no extra income.
ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank have reduced the rates they are offering on their basic saver accounts, just days after the Reserve Bank of Australia's most recent cut to official interest rates.
According to financial services research firm Canstar, ANZ has halved its online saver base interest rate to 0.15 per cent. It has kept its introductory rate on the account at 1.8 per cent.
The base rate on its progress saver account remains at 0.01 per cent, although it has sliced a full 0.25 percentage points from the bonus rate on this type of account to 1.95 per cent.
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Revealed: The households with surging wealth and the households standing still
The wealth of the average Australian household has surged past $1 million but low-income families have not seen any increase in their net worth for more than a decade.
July 12, 2019
Despite a record 28 years of uninterrupted economic growth, new figures show debt has outstripped national incomes for the first time, fewer than 30 per cent of workers own their home outright, and one in three home owners are in mortgage stress.
The story of the economy's increasing wealth disparity has been revealed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with the gap between the asset rich and income poor at its widest in decades.
WEALTH
Every two years, the ABS surveys thousands of Australians on their income and wealth. It divides households into five groups from the lowest 20 per cent by income or wealth to the highest 20 per cent. There are about 2.1 million households in each of the five groups.
The survey shows high-wealth households increased their average net worth from $1.9 million in 2003-04 to $3.2 million in 2017-18. Over the same period, middle-wealth households increased their average net worth by $148,700.
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Morrison must think hard about our Pacific plays
- 12:00AM July 12, 2019
In a major speech ahead of the G20 summit in Osaka, Scott Morrison advised Australians: “We should not just sit back and passively await our fate in the wake of a major power contest. This underestimates … the power of human, state and multilateral agency.”
The latest edition of the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index confirms the Prime Minister’s intuition that Australia can make a difference. Our comparative advantages are becoming only more important to ensuring a favourable balance of power in Asia. The challenges of great power rivalry present an opportunity for Australia, far from being a passive observer of geopolitics, to expand its role in the region. The key to success is to work in concert with like-minded powers.
The Lowy Institute has aggregated 30,000 data points as part of our comprehensive study of the changing distribution of power in our region. The 2019 Asia Power Index ranks 25 countries in terms of what they have, and what they do with what they have. It reaches as far west as Pakistan, as far north as Russia, and across the Pacific to the us.
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One rule for politicians, and one for everyone else
Politicians leak secrets when it's useful to them. So what about their pursuit of journalists who do the same in the public's name?
Jul 12, 2019 — 5.57pm
Auberon Waugh is credited with coining the term “the chattering classes”, which Wikipedia notes is a “generally derogatory term often used by pundits and political commentators to refer to a politically active, socially concerned and highly educated section of the 'metropolitan middle class', especially those with political, media, and academic connections”.
It migrated to Australian commentary in the mid-1990s – about the same time John Howard started fighting "political correctness" – when conservative think tanks were emerging that argued our public policy discussions were captured by the "chattering classes", by which they meant people like welfare lobbyists, Indigenous leaders and arty types.
The chattering classes don’t seem to have quite as much sway as they once did, according to this definition, though it is interesting it doesn’t seem to ever be applied in quite the same derogatory way to commentators of a conservative bent.
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Doubts over refund stimulus as debt soars on back of property splurge
By Shane Wright and Eryk Bagshaw
July 13, 2019 — 12.00am
A property market-fuelled surge has left Australians with record debt and more people in mortgage stress than ever before, raising doubts about whether the Morrison government's tax refunds will boost the economy.
A survey of wealth and income carried out every two years by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2017-18, the median debt-to-income ratio hit 110 per cent, or $1.10 in debt for every dollar of income.
After holding steady following the global financial crisis until 2013-14, median debt to income has jumped by more than 20 per cent.
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New Cold War traps Australia between our traditional rock and global hard case
- 12:00AM July 13, 2019
Concerns were widely expressed this week about a Chinese intelligence-gathering ship loitering off eastern Australia to spy on our biggest defence exercise.
This is one of many cases in which Scott Morrison will need to make hard decisions about when to assert Australian interests against a determined China promoting its own agenda.
A new cold war with China is playing out in all but name. Australia will be at the frontline of much of this because we will increasingly be tested by the US asking “Are you with us?” while China asks “Are you against us?”
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All that spruiking won’t change reality of the household
- 12:00AM July 13, 2019
Perhaps orchestrated meetings between the Treasurer and central bank governor should be kept to a minimum. Thursday’s two-hour get-together between Josh Frydenberg and Philip Lowe in Melbourne elicited spruiking that could come to damage the RBA’s reputation.
“More Australians have jobs today than ever before in Australian history,” Lowe said, “100 per cent” agreeing with Mr Frydenberg that the economy was “growing” and its “fundamentals” were “strong”.
It was an odd look after the RBA’s decision to cut the official interest rate to a record low of 1 per cent over the past two months in a bid to arrest falling inflation and stimulate the economy.
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Canberra-RBA detente on economy won’t last
- 7:45PM July 12, 2019
Some strangeness has entered Australia’s economic debate with the governor of the Reserve Bank, Philip Lowe, this week saying he’s now fully on board with the policy program outlined by the federal government around income tax cuts and infrastructure spending as a means to lift the economy.
“I agree 100 per cent with you (Josh Frydenberg) the Australian economy is growing and fundamentals are strong,” was the comment that emerged from Dr Lowe late Thursday after he had meetings with the Treasurer in Melbourne.
The pair went over the government’s plans to support the economy, with Mr Frydenberg noting: “We and the governor are at one when we continue to look for new infrastructure projects.”
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The good news is you'll have a longer life, that's also the bad news
By Nina Hendy
July 14, 2019 — 12.00am
We’re all living longer. So could you outlive your retirement savings?
If you’re 65 today, there’s a good chance you’ll enjoy a long and happy retirement that lasts into your 80s.
Our lucky country enjoys one of the highest life expectancies of any country in the world, at 80.4 for men and 84.5 for women.
However, living longer means you need dependable income to cover your essential expenses and maintain your standard of living.
Outliving your nest egg
Research shows that more than half (53 per cent) of Australians fear outliving their retirement savings and 28 per cent regret not putting more money away for retirement.
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Government shuts down calls to enshrine Indigenous 'voice' in constitution
By David Crowe
July 12, 2019 — 12.00am
The Morrison government is spurning calls for major constitutional change to give Indigenous Australians a "voice" to Parliament to advise on new laws, assuring its own MPs it will not enshrine the power in the nation's founding document.
The government is closing down the controversial option after days of speculation over the scale of its ambition to recognise Indigenous Australians in a referendum to be put to voters in the next three years.
The message makes it clear the government could legislate a new way for Indigenous leaders to represent their communities, but will not entrench this new authority in the constitution.
However, it would still pursue a form of words to amend the constitution to recognise Indigenous Australians in a process that could take much of this term of Parliament.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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Culture to cost big three banks $500m
Jul 11, 2019 — 9.47am
The prudential regulator will force Westpac, ANZ and National Australia Bank to hold an additional $500 million in capital to reflect the risks identified in their culture and governance self assessments.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority ordered 36 financial institutions to complete self assessments after ordering Commonwealth Bank to hold an additional $1 billion capital after a scathing inquiry into that bank’s culture and governance.
Westpac, ANZ and NAB will need to hold the additional capital until they have completed their customer remediation programs and fixed the problems indentified in their self assessments.
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Banks blasted over worthless insurance as watchdog flags compo, court cases
July 11, 2019 — 10.10am
The nation's biggest banks have been blasted over their selling of worthless insurance to customers buying credit cards, home loans and personal loans and warned they face prosecution on top of a $100 million compensation bill.
A report released on Thursday by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission found the 11 banks, including the big four, were selling consumer credit insurance that "consistently failed" customers.
The report found the product was "extremely poor value for money" with the banks paying out just 11 cents for every dollar they collected in premiums.
The review also found customers were sold the insurance even though they were ineligible to claim on it as they were confronted with high-pressure sales techniques and given personal advice that broke the rules.
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National Budget Issues.
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RBA, tax cuts are 'more than enough' stimulus
Jul 8, 2019 — 12.00am
Tax and interest rate cuts as well as the removal of credit restrictions are already enough to stimulate the economy and any more fiscal stimulus could jeopardise a return to surplus, warned former advisers to the Gillard and Rudd Labor governments.
Alphabeta economist Andrew Charlton, who advised the Rudd government during the financial crisis, and Market Economics' Stephen Koukoulas, who accurately forecast the cash rate at 1 per cent, both said the stimulus coming could have much bigger effects on the economy than many think.
Their comments follow calls from the Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe for governments to increase fiscal stimulus as well as calls from Labor to increase spending on a range of areas including Newstart allowance, infrastructure and pension payments via the reduction of the deeming rate.
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Stick to surplus to keep AAA rating
Rising state government debt and foreign funding risks mean the federal government should keep its budget surplus goal, credit rating agency says.
Jul 9, 2019 — 12.00am
S&P Global Ratings has urged the Morrison government to stick to its budget surplus plan to maintain Australia's AAA credit rating, rejecting calls from some economists to relax budget repair and inject fiscal stimulus into the economy.
Rising state government debt from record infrastructure investment and weaker property tax and GST revenues puts the onus on commonwealth budget prudence to offset a deterioration in state finances, S&P Ratings director Anthony Walker said.
Ratings agencies typically look at the combined budget balances and debt of federal and state governments to determine the sovereign credit rating.
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APRA gives banks more time to lift capital
Big banks have extra time to raise capital to absorb potential losses after APRA amended proposals for minimising the fallout from failed institutions.
Stuart Condie
Australian Associated Press July 9, 20199:16am
The big four banks will have longer than expected to raise extra capital to absorb potential losses after the prudential regulator amended its proposed framework for minimising the fallout from failed institutions.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority on Tuesday said the majors had to lift total capital by three percentage points of risk-weighted assets by 2024, putting away what the regulator estimates will be another $50 billion to minimise the need for taxpayer funds should they collapse.
APRA had flagged a four-to-five percentage-point increase in an initial proposal published in November but amended the timeline following submissions from parties including the Customer Owned Banking Association.
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A $50b lost opportunity: Why businesses are investing less in the economy
Clancy Yeates
Banking reporter
July 13, 2019 — 12.00am
A key insight of economics is that economies go through both short-term "cyclical" changes — the boom and bust cycle — and more deep-seated “structural” shifts.
The distinction sounds academic, but it matters for how governments respond to a problem. Dealing with a structural change requires a different response to managing the ups and downs of the business cycle by tweaking interest rates or handing out goodies in the budget.
For a clear example of this, look at what’s going on with non-mining business investment, which is important for supporting economic growth and providing well-paying jobs.
The head of the RBA has told the government it's now up to them to prevent a dangerous economic slowdown.
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Planned cut to deeming rate falls short of pensioner demands
By David Crowe
July 14, 2019 — 12.00am
The federal government will spend $600 million on a pension boost for older Australians in a new pledge to ease growing complaints that payment rules are "short-changing" people who have saved cash to help pay for their retirement.
The government will promise up to $1053 a year for part-pensioners and those who receive other federal allowances in a long-awaited change to the rules on earnings from term deposits, shares and other investments.
But the decision to cut the headline "deeming" rate from 3.25 per cent to 3 per cent falls short of the demands from retiree groups in recent weeks, as the government rules out a more generous change so as to protect the budget surplus.
The commitment on Sunday will increase payments for about 630,000 age pensioners and almost 350,000 people receiving other federal help, such as the carer’s payment, the disability support pension, the parenting payment and payments to veterans.
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Why the government is holding back on a bigger pension boost
By David Crowe
July 14, 2019 — 12.00am
Scott Morrison has kept one hand closed tight while extending the other with a modest payment for pensioners.
There is no question the Prime Minister and his economic team could have been more generous when deciding the increase in pensions for almost one million Australians.
That means they have chosen to protect the budget surplus even at the risk of offending older voters.
Their change to the deeming rate, the key assumption that decides payments for many part-pensioners, is more generous for those with smaller savings than it is for couples with financial investments worth more than $86,200.
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Health Issues.
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Immunisation rates for Australian children reaches record 95%
Nearly 97% coverage for Indigenous five-year-olds beats national figure
Australian Associated Press
Sun 7 Jul 2019 12.31 AEST
The number of fully immunised Australian children has hit a record level, with close to 95% vaccinated against deadly diseases.
New data for the March quarter showed immunisation rates for all five-year-olds was 94.78%, up from 94.67% in the December quarter.
The coverage rate for five-year-old Indigenous children was 96.66%, outstripping the national figure.
The federal health minister, Greg Hunt, said on Sunday that immunisation saved and protected lives, and it was important to keep promoting the benefits of vaccines.
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Family’s lives lived well, but life expectancy just got a little shorter
12:00AM July 8, 2019
Melbourne retirees Joe and Talya Pasmanik did what we all should do: they gave up the cigarettes years ago and judiciously watch what they eat and drink.
Aged 72 and 68 respectively, the couple plan to be around to see a fourth generation of their family grow up.
But new forecasts on life expectancy cast doubt on whether Australians will continue to live longer and healthier lives.
By the time their two grandkids and grand-niece, Tara, 2, are old enough to have children of their own, life expectancy will be in decline, reversing decades of advances that pushed average longevity past 80 in this country.
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Children's heart surgery feud escalates as hospital review leaves doctors blindsided
By Harriet Alexander
Updated July 11, 2019 — 2.21amfirst published at 12.00am
Doctors had no idea that the most contentious element of the Sydney Children’s Hospital Network would be excluded from a review of its governance until they read the draft report, despite making extensive submissions on the issue.
The final report on the governance of the SCHN released last week exposed major deficiencies in transparency, accountability and strategic planning within the network. It also questioned the independence of the board.
But it did not address the question of where heart surgery should be performed - saying the network's arrangements over the cardiac service were subject to a “separate process”.
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Earle Haven Retirement Village: Fury, elderly residents in limbo as retirement home abruptly shuts
- July 12, 2019
Patient records, drugs and even cleaning supplies were stripped from a Gold Coast aged-care home that abruptly shut down, forcing the emergency evacuation of more than 70 residents, the Queensland government says.
Gold Coast aged care is at “full capacity” after 71 elderly Queenslanders were left homeless when a dispute over money saw Earle Haven Retirement Village at Nerang dramatically shut down.
Vulnerable and frail residents were without a home or a bed until as late as midnight last night. Police, paramedics, and health workers on Thursday spent eight hours moving distressed residents to temporary beds.
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Med college powers revisited
- 12:00AM July 13, 2019
The power of specialist medical colleges to control access to the profession has again been called into question as authorities attempt to develop a national workforce strategy.
The strategy was first flagged by the federal government last year, amid major shifts in supply and demand, and now has the backing of the Council of Australian Governments Health Council. It is being developed by a high-level committee and the federal health department.
With the colleges having a key role in deciding the number of specialist training places, the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission has briefed the committee on the definition of anti-competitive behaviour.
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When half the nation's aged care homes are losing money, more collapses will come
By Rachel Lane
July 14, 2019 — 12.00am
Last week one of Perth’s most luxurious (and expensive) aged care groups went into voluntary administration sending a shock wave through the industry.
The group has two homes, one in Subiaco and the other in Como. The price of beds across the two homes ranges from $795,000 to $1,250,000 with the operator holding around $100 million in what used to be called "bonds" and are now known as "accommodation deposits".
Almost half the aged care industry is running at a loss.
Berrington Care Group says that it is profitable. It claims that its present predicament is the result of an issue with its major creditor.
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International Issues.
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China's steelmakers say iron ore import prices are too high
Jul 7, 2019 — 4.19pm
Shanghai |Surging iron prices have taken a hit from signs the Chinese government could act on complaints from Chinese steel mills that market manipulation by futures traders is squeezing their profit margins.
Iron ore futures, which hit a five-year high last week, fell almost 4 per cent late Friday after a top official representing China’s powerful steel industry said Beijing was preparing to crackdown on soaring prices.
Dual-listed shares in Australian miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto fell sharply in London on news that China’s top steelmakers had formed a working group to investigate “irregularities”. Analysts warned any move by the Chinese government to respond to the industry complaints would result in lower prices for imported iron ore, although a shortfall meant volumes were not threatened.
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Trump criticises ambassador who wrote leaked memos, as UK orders probe
Updated July 8, 2019 — 8.32amfirst published at 7.07am
New Jersey: President Donald Trump has attempted to shrug off a highly disparaging assessment of him by Britain's ambassador to the United States.
The top diplomat Kim Darroch described Trump's administration as "dysfunctional", "clumsy" and "inept", the Mail on Sunday newspaper reported, citing a series of confidential memos.
US President Donald Trump criticized Britain's ambassador to the US, Kim Darroch after leaked memos show Darroch called Trump's administration 'dysfunctional' and 'inept.'
The leaked report drew ire from Trump, who said the British ambassador, "did not serve the UK well".
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Greek opposition leader Mitsotakis seals sweeping victory in elections
By Eleni Chrepa
July 8, 2019 — 5.47am
Athens: Greece's center-right New Democracy party leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis will take over as prime minister, after Sunday's election victory handed the former banker a mandate to tackle the nation's chronic woes after a decade-long financial crisis.
New Democracy won 39.7 per cent of the vote, with more than half of the ballots counted, according to the interior ministry, compared with 31.5 per cent for the Syriza party of outgoing prime minister Alexis Tsipras.
Tsipras conceded the election at a news conference in Athens and said he will hand power to Mitsotakis on Monday. The results broadly confirmed pre-election polls, although Syriza did not do as badly as some predictions. New Democracy will have a clear parliamentary majority as expected, with about 158 lawmakers in the 300-seat chamber.
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China monitor mission ‘the new normal’
- 12:00AM July 8, 2019
A Chinese spy ship is preparing to “collect information” on the largest US-Australian military exercise, with foreign policy analysts calling the move a “new normal” and a reversion to Cold War-like tactics between major powers and their allies.
Defence Force chief of joint operations Lieutenant General Greg Bilton said he expected the Chinese vessel to sail near Queensland as 34,000 Australian and US personnel took part in the Talisman Sabre military exercise.
The vessel is set to monitor the massive military engagement in nearby international waters, which start 12 nautical miles from the coastline.
“We don’t know yet what its destination is but we are assuming it will come down to the east coast of Queensland and we will take appropriate measures in regards to that,” General Bilton said at the launching ceremony for the event at the Port of Brisbane yesterday.
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Donald Trump hits highest approval rating of presidency
- 8:43AM July 8, 2019
Donald Trump has hit the highest approval rating of his presidency amid a flurry of strong economic news, with robust jobs growth and rising wages boosting his prospects of re-election.
A Washington Post-ABC poll found the president’s approval rating among registered voters has jumped to 47 per cent, compared with 42 per cent in April.
A growing majority of Americans — 59 per cent — also say house Democrats should not start impeachment proceedings against Mr Trump with 46 per cent of them strongly opposed to such a move.
The figures are a blow to those Democrats who are determined to trigger impeachment proceedings against the president, but they will fuel the opposition of Democrat house leader Nancy Pelosi who says impeachment would be a trap for the party.
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US may top debt limit sooner than forecast
Erik Wasson
Jul 9, 2019 — 8.18am
Washington | Congress has been acting like it has months to raise the US debt limit, but declining tax revenue projections mean lawmakers could face a tighter deadline, according to an independent policy group.
The Bipartisan Policy Centre said on Monday (Tuesday AEST) there is a "significant risk" that the US will breach its debt limit in early September unless Congress acts. The group's evaluation marked a revision from its previous forecast of an October to November date at which the US will default on payment obligations.
While it is still more likely that a default would occur in October, there is now a heightened risk in the first weeks of September because corporate tax revenue is already down 9 per cent this year. Bloomberg
The Treasury Department has been using so-called extraordinary measures to meet debt obligations since March 2, when the US reached its $US22 trillion limit on borrowing. Declining corporate tax revenue this year will give the Treasury less room to manoeuver, the BPC said, increasing pressure on lawmakers to cut a deal.
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Ukraine snatch squad grabs pro-Russia commander suspected of involvement in MH17
- By Marc Bennetts
- The Times
- July 9, 2019
A former pro-Russian separatist commander suspected of involvement in shooting down a Malaysia Airlines flight is in custody after being seized by Ukrainian special forces.
Vladimir Tsemakh, 58, was detained by a snatch squad at his home in Snizhne, a town in a breakaway region of eastern Ukraine that is backed by Russia. He is reported to have been injected with a tranquilliser, put into a wheelchair and smuggled 30 miles across separatist-held territory into government-controlled Ukraine.
Kiev has not commented on the arrest but leaked photographs published by Russian and Ukrainian media showed him in custody with a bandaged head and what appeared to be in injection mark on his upper arm.
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'Total failure': Hong Kong extradition bill dead, says leader Carrie Lam
By Donny Kwok
July 9, 2019 — 12.26pm
Hong Kong: Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has announced that the extradition bill that sparked the territory's biggest political crisis in decades was dead, admitting that the government's work on the bill had been a "total failure".
The bill, which would have allowed people in Hong Kong to be sent to mainland China to face trial, sparked huge and at times violent street protests and plunged the former British colony into turmoil.
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam says the extradition bill that sparked the territory's biggest political crisis in decades was dead, admitting that the government's work on the bill had been a "total failure".
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Britain’s plans for post-Brexit trade deal with the US spring a leak
- By The Economist
- 12:00AM July 10, 2019
Having the British Foreign Secretary and his predecessor locked in a battle to be prime minister makes this an awkward time for Britain’s Foreign Office. To make matters worse, it now has to hunt for the mole responsible for a deeply embarrassing leak of dispatches from the country’s ambassador to Washington, Sir Kim Darroch.
Just when it should be preparing for a post-Brexit “Global Britain”, the Foreign Office finds itself fighting fires both at home and in relations with the countries it most needs to cultivate.
In truth, Darroch’s cables assessing US President Donald Trump and his policies, covering a period from 2017 to today and leaked last weekend in British newspaper the Mail on Sunday, revealed little that has not been said frequently in the press.
Still, coming from a top British diplomat, the assessments make juicy reading.
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Trump’s boom will prove to be a lot of hot air
Updated Jul 10, 2019 — 10.20am, first published at 10.03am
"The economy has come roaring back under President Trump.” Thus reads a statement on the White House website. This claim needs sober evaluation.
The conclusion is that the economy has responded to a big fiscal stimulus roughly as the best forecasters predicted. That upsurge is unlikely to last. The big tax cuts have, as intended, hugely benefited owners of corporations.
But they have certainly not paid for themselves. They have left the long-term fiscal position fragile, instead. That Republicans are happy with this is noteworthy. Given their posturing during the Obama era, it is also hypocritical.
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UK ambassador resigns on Trump criticism as Boris shows no support
Updated Jul 11, 2019 — 12.13am, first published at Jul 10, 2019 — 9.26pm
London | Britain's ambassador to Washington abruptly quit on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump lambasted him on Twitter as "stupid" and "wacky", sending shockwaves through the British government and the diplomatic world.
British envoy Kim Darroch's resignation came after a Sunday newspaper published excerpts of several highly classified emails and diplomatic telegrams in which he criticised the conduct and capacities of the Trump Administration.
This evidently infuriated Mr Trump, who took to Twitter on consecutive days to attack both the ambassador and also criticise British Prime Minister Theresa May. She had publicly backed her ambassador even though Mr Trump said he'd no longer work with him.
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Incited by charismatic monks, Buddhist militant aggression on the rise
By Hannah Beech
Updated July 10, 2019 — 3.25pmfirst published at 3.23pm
Gintota, Sri Lanka: The Buddhist abbot was sitting cross-legged in his monastery, fulminating against the evils of Islam, when the petrol bomb exploded within earshot.
But the abbot, the Venerable Ambalangoda Sumedhananda Thero, barely registered the blast. Waving away the mosquitoes swarming the night air in the southern Sri Lankan town of Gintota, he continued his tirade: Muslims were violent, he said, Muslims were rapacious.
"The aim of Muslims is to take over all our land and everything we value," he said. "Think of what used to be Buddhist lands: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kashmir, Indonesia. They have all been destroyed by Islam."
Minutes later, a monastic aide rushed in and confirmed that someone had thrown a Molotov cocktail at a nearby mosque. The abbot flicked his fingers in the air and shrugged.
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Legacy of Bretton Woods is under threat
Trumpian populism is destroying 70 years of global economic co-operation. What can we put in its place?
Jul 11, 2019 — 11.18am
“We have come to recognise that the wisest and most effective way to protect our national interests is through international co-operation — that is to say, through united effort for the attainment of common goals.”
US Treasury secretary Henry Morgenthau Jr, closing address at Bretton Woods Conference, July 22, 1944
“We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs. Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.”
Donald Trump, inaugural presidential address, January 20 2017
Donald Trump, inaugural presidential address, January 20 2017
The conference at Bretton Woods in New Hampshire that underpinned much of today’s global economic order took place three-quarters of a century ago, between July 1 and 22 1944. The second world war was not yet won. Yet already the western powers — the US, above all — were thinking about how to organise things differently for the better world that had to lie ahead.
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The Fed satisfies fewer and fewer these days: El-Erian
Jul 12, 2019 — 4.02am
Give financial markets what they wish for, and they will ask for more. Give them more than they wish for and they'll still ask for more. Just ask Fed chairman Jerome Powell.
His remarks to Congress on Wednesday (Thursday AEST) were more dovish than expected, but rather than strengthening the Federal Reserve's effectiveness and easing the political and social pressures on it, this could aggravate the risk of a lose-lose outcome for the world's most powerful central banks.
Given the Fed's systemically important role, the institution's more dovish policy guidance is seen, correctly, as also opening the way for looser monetary policies by many other central banks around the world. AP
Powell's remarks did more than solidify expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. It also empowered a growing number of market participants to call for, and expect, a 50-basis-point cut.
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China will be US military's top threat for decades
Glen Carey and Tony Capaccio
Jul 12, 2019 — 6.19am
Washington | China may remain the "primary threat" to the US military for as long as a century after learning how to fight more effectively by watching American wars in the Middle East, President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
"China went to school on us," General Mark Milley said in response to lawmakers' questions during his confirmation hearing on Thursday (Friday AEST) before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
"They watched us very closely in the first Gulf War, the second Gulf War. They watched our capabilities and in many, many ways they have mimicked those, and they have adopted many of the doctrines and organisations."
Evolving threats from China and Russia are cited as the primary challenges in the current US defence strategy, supplanting the war on terrorism as the top priority.
China, with the world's second-largest economy, is making major investments in military capabilities to challenge America's post-World War II dominance, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Welcome to the TINA market: Why Wall Street is setting records even as global economic fears rise
By Stephen Grocer
July 12, 2019 — 10.44am
Bad news is cheered. Good news makes investors nervous. Welcome to Wall Street.
The S&P 500 rose above 3,000 for the first time in its history Wednesday, with gains that continued early Thursday.
The most recent jump began after Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, suggested the nation's central bank was worried about the economy. Just days earlier, strong data on the job market had the opposite effect for stocks.
This counterintuitive reaction to the news is a phenomenon that's explained by expectations for interest rates. The weakening outlook for the economy means, in all likelihood, borrowing costs are coming down — and in the right circumstances, this can be good for stocks.
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China is at a crossroads, Kevin Rudd tells London audience
By Latika Bourke
July 12, 2019 — 3.59am
London: China fears that trade and technology wars with the United States will spill over into the finance sector, former prime minister Kevin Rudd said, adding that the Asian nation is at a crossroads about whether to respond by retreating inwards or further liberalising its economy.
Delivering the opening address at a conference on China's economic future at Chatham House, a London think tank, Rudd predicted that the US and China would strike a politically acceptable trade deal before the end of the year.
Chinese telecoms giant Huawei is a favourite bogeyman for the Trump administration over cybersecurity fears. But Australian intelligence services were lobbying allies over the perceived threat to 5G long before it was on the Americans' agenda.
He said this was because both countries needed stability ahead of the US presidential election and the lead up in China to the party centenary in 2021, when President Xi Jinping would face internal pressure if the economy had not sustained economic growth above 6 per cent.
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China will slowly stifle Hong Kong
Confronted with massive popular resistance, China will try to change Hong Kong from within through covert networks and population policy.
Willy Lam
Jul 12, 2019 — 2.08pm
The Hong Kong protests have evolved into a Manichean struggle between the hard authoritarianism of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the free-wheeling, Western-style norms of Beijing’s Special Administrative Region (SAR).
Like his comrade-in-arms Russian President Vladmir Putin, who recently pronounced the end of history for American-style democracy, China’s President Xi Jinping is a firm believer in the invincibility of the quasi-totalitarian China model.
In a recent conference on the cross-pollination of global cultures, the Chinese strongman noted “there would be no clash of civilisations as long as people are able to appreciate the beauty of all civilisations.”
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What Jeffrey Epstein's crimes say about our era
By Helaine Olen
July 12, 2019 — 11.36pm
When guessing how our current age of wealth excess might come to an end, I highly doubt anyone predicted "scandal involving sex abuse of children". But the Jeffrey Epstein scandal is something, I predict, that will come to be viewed in future years as one of the defining events that brings our age of excess to a close. It's a scandal people will study in the next century, the way we learn about Marie Antoinette's play-acting at poverty on her faux farm when studying pre-Revolutionary France, or think immediately about Rasputin when discussing the end of the Russian monarchy.
It's not because the Epstein scandal is grotesquely salacious, though it is certainly that. Nor is it that if offers up mystery upon mystery, though that factors as well. Nor is it just his connections and associations with powerbrokers in both political parties. It's all of that, but there is more.
The major lie of the age of wealth inequality is that the moneyed are somehow better than the rest of us day-to-day working schlubs. The aristocracy of prewar Europe had their bloodlines. Our latter-day meritocratic aristocrats, we are told, possess the modern equivalent, which is extraordinary intelligence. The slothful working class are slaves to short-term pleasure. The rich, on the other hand, are disciplined. They wake up early, and they refuse to live beyond their means.
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The Mike Pence factor might keep Donald Trump in the White House
Anne Summers
Columnist
July 14, 2019 — 12.00am
So, you’re a freshman Republican member of the state house who’s decided to run for governor of Mississippi but it’s three weeks to the Republican primary, you are sitting at 9 per cent in the polls and have just $7000 cash in your campaign coffers. What do to?
In what he hoped would be an attention-grabbing move, Rep. Robert Foster decided to ban local reporter, Larrison Campbell, from accompanying him on a campaign road trip. Despite Campbell having interviewed him twice previously and it being well-known that she is "very openly gay", as she puts it, Foster invoked the so-called Billy Graham rule – avoiding being alone with an unmarried woman to avoid temptation.
Foster’s actions got him the publicity bump he sought.
Heck, we’re even talking about him Down Under. But it will have zero effect on his chances of winning the primary.
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US and UK military assets locked and loaded in the Persian Gulf
RICHARD SPENCER and MICHAEL EVANS
- The Times
- 12:00AM July 13, 2019
The Gulf fracas is right on the doorstep of American military firepower.
The US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain and US Central Command’s main forward base is in Qatar, covering 16 countries including Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. It is telling that Iran has kept its threats strictly to commercial vessels and not naval assets. Neither Tehran nor Washington wants to provoke war.
By comparison with the US, the British naval presence in the Gulf is modest, with six ships stationed at the port in Bahrain: HMS Montrose, a Type 23 frigate; four mine counter-measure vessels crucial for keeping the Gulf waterway clear; and a tanker support ship.
Ninety-one British-flagged tankers have entered the Gulf this year, 27 of them in June, the busiest month, according to Refinitiv, a financial data company. That suggests that HMS Montrose will be kept busy escorting vessels for as long as the crisis continues.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
2 things
ReplyDelete1. Peter Dutton is proving to struggle as a statesman we should grateful we ended up with just a bit of a wet fish.
2. Just can’t help themselves and in doing so cause so much harm - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/a-former-science-minister-wants-to-fund-the-nhs-by-selling-patient-data