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Trump is back on the campaign trail but in COVIDtimes it is turning out to be harder than he imagined. The Bolton book on his presidency is causing all sorts of ructions and confirms he is as bad as we thought he was.
Boris seems to be loosing popularity and hopefully the virus is in retreat or there will be real trouble.
In OZ we have the virus, cyber, and branch stacking making life pretty interesting!
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Major Issues.
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Miners walk a fine line on Aboriginal sacred sites in the Pilbara
Brad Thompson Reporter
Jun 13, 2020 – 12.01am
The closing scene of the Steven Spielberg classic Raiders of the Lost Ark shows the ark of the covenant being nailed shut in a wooden box and slotted away into a seemingly endless government warehouse.
That is not exactly what happens with the countless Indigenous artefacts disturbed by mining companies in Western Australia’s Pilbara, but there are some parallels with the fantasy film involving a religious relic of "unspeakable power".
Aboriginal artefacts cover the Pilbara after tens of thousands of years of Indigenous occupation. And in this era of mega iron ore mining, many end up in bags or even sea containers where they are held by some of Australia's biggest companies with the blessing of traditional owners.
In the case of the Juukan caves destroyed by Rio Tinto in May, the artefacts removed in 2014 in consultation with traditional owners represented by the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura Aboriginal Corporation included grinding and pounding stones, a marsupial bone thought to date back 28,000 years that had been shaped into a tool and a 4000-year-old piece of plaited hair from the PKKP’s ancestors.
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Civil unrest in the US: should markets be worried?
12 Jun, 2020
Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Sydney, Australia
There have been plenty of disturbing scenes of street unrest in the US following the death of George Floyd. Serious as these events are, it’s important to keep in perspective what markets typically do and don’t react to.
With images of buildings being set alight on our screens, you’d be forgiven for thinking this is another event that would rattle US markets.
Particularly given the poor economic background and other issues such as US/China tensions along with ongoing uncertainty as to whether coronavirus is really under control.
What we can say so far though, is that the images and scenes we’re being presented with is not enough to significantly impact US economic activity, which is similar to what we’ve seen with terrorist attacks. The 9/11 terrorist attack was unprecedented and briefly disrupted markets – but since then, subsequent terrorist attacks had less and less impact. Markets tend to look through these events, unless they are major enough to disrupt economic functioning on a broad scale.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/the-global-gold-market-is-breaking-up-20200614-p552ed
The global gold market is breaking up
Gold, the globe’s universal currency and store of value, is being de-globalised
John Dizard
Jun 14, 2020 – 2.30pm
Gold, the globe’s universal currency and store of value, is being de-globalised. Mocatta, long the largest gold bullion dealer, is being unwound and shut down by Scotiabank. JPMorgan, the leading US bullion bank, is ever more reluctant and slow to take on new counterparties.
Along with all its other issues, HSBC had to take a huge mark on its gold trading book during the illiquid and volatile March markets. The Rothschilds, essential to every global conspiracy theory, left the gold trade in 2004.
Gold location arbitrages, the apparently risk-free differences between the simultaneously indicated gold prices among trading centres, are not as wide as they were during the March travel disruptions. At that time, an ounce of gold could be marked at as much as a $US90 difference between markets, say, in Zurich, New York and London. In the recent past, a $US1.50 difference would raise eyebrows and trading capital allocations.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/culture-wars-cancel-the-past-and-present-20200614-p552fg
Culture wars cancel the past and present
The urge to succumb to the authoritarian impetus of a vengeful mob is much the same. No shades of grey, no sense of nuance and certainly no sense of humour allowed.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun 14, 2020 – 6.00pm
I was thrilled to see the toppling of the statue of Saddam Hussein in 2003, little realising the even greater horrors that would devastate Iraq and the region after his despotic rule was ended.
In my early travels, I was hardly surprised German cities seemed to have no statues of Hitler. Who could think commemoration of his appalling regime a decent option?
Had I registered the West Australian government’s 2017 promise, I would have supported renaming the Leopold Ranges in the Kimberleys into something more suitable than the record of a viciously cruel Belgian king.
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Liberal democracy is in danger from the coercive left
The overreach of identity politics could drive a reaction which then undermines our stable democracy.
Alexander Downer Columnist
Jun 15, 2020 – 12.00am
My message is simple. All good people have to rally to support liberal democracy against those who are now destroying it.
Several years ago I was having lunch with Peter Carrington. He had been both the British foreign secretary and the defence secretary and in the 1950s was the high commissioner in Canberra. We were deep in discussion about the political events of the time. Then he said something which startled me. He said I shouldn’t assume that liberal democracy would last forever. It would struggle to survive. I argued with him saying that I was sure it would survive.
But these days for the first time in my life I’ve started to wonder. The drift away from the traditions of liberalism which have underwritten Western societies – and many beyond – are being seriously challenged.
Liberal democratic societies are not just about democratically held elections. As important is the commitment to freedom of speech, freedom of expression and most importantly of all the equal value of all human beings regardless of class, race, gender and sexuality. This whole concept of the equality of humanity has its roots in Christianity.
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Targeting police will do little to stop Aboriginal deaths in custody
By Don Weatherburn
June 15, 2020 — 12.05am
Aboriginal people are too often the victims of racist and brutal policing. And yes, the way police treat Aboriginal children (and adults) needs to change. But the complete elimination of racist policing would do little to reduce the number of Aboriginal Australians in prison custody and the number who die there.
Police treatment of Aboriginal people and Aboriginal over-representation in prison are two distinct issues requiring different responses. The former requires change in the behaviour of police. The latter requires an Aboriginal-led government-supported effort to improve Indigenous outcomes in child welfare, health, education and employment.
Sixty-three per cent of Aboriginal people in prison are there for violent offences. The primary victims of this violence are Aboriginal women and children. The violence is a product of a chain of events that starts with colonisation and dispossession and stretches forward in time through trauma, loss of purpose, child neglect, substance abuse, depression, poor school performance and unemployment.
There should be no surprise in this. You can’t invade a country, drive the original inhabitants off their land, destroy their way of life, pass on your diseases, herd them into camps or on to islands, forcibly remove their children and expect this to have no long-term adverse effects.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/everyone-knew-what-was-going-on-20200616-p5532y
'Everyone knew what was going on'
Adem Somyurek was a factional operator of such prodigious drive and ambition that he almost single-handedly took control of the Victorian Labor Party. But someone was determined to stop him.
Aaron Patrick and David Marin-Guzman
Jun 17, 2020 – 12.00am
The secret camera, perched in the corner of an electorate office in suburban Melbourne, captured the grubby reality of Labor politics: a minister of the crown directing branch stacking by two young staff members.
The office belonged to Anthony Byrne, a low-profile federal MP who holds a sensitive position as the ranking Labor member of the parliamentary committee that oversees the intelligence services.
The minister under surveillance was Adem Somyurek, a factional operator of such prodigious drive and ambition that he was trying, almost single-handedly, to take control of the Victorian Labor Party.
Someone was determined to stop him.
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Cheaper uni degrees for careers in demand
Robert Bolton Education editor
Jun 19, 2020 – 12.01am
University students will pay more than double to study arts degrees – but much less to do nursing, teaching, mathematics and science – as the federal government shifts higher education funding to encourage graduates into jobs most in demand.
The cost of studying maths or agriculture at university will fall by to 61 per cent as the government raises its subsidy, while courses not directly leading to jobs will cost students more – humanities students will pay 113 per cent more for their degrees.
The changes are grandfathered for existing students but effective immediately for all new students – subject to legislation. The fee for nursing and teaching will fall by 45 per cent and for science by 23 per cent.
Students will still have to borrow the money but the upfront cost and subsequent debt repayments will be sharply lower.
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The faceless men who started it all have no regrets
A decade after Labor torched a first-term prime minister, the party's faceless men have no regrets.
No one on either side is taking a backward step from what they thought was right back then. If anything, their views are even more entrenched. David Rowe
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Jun 20, 2020 – 12.00am
Ten years ago this Saturday, South Australian Senator Don Farrell stood outside a polling booth in western Sydney trying to hand out how-to-vote cards for Labor.
The occasion was a state byelection for the seat of Penrith, vacated after the Labor incumbent Karyn Paluzzano resigned for lying to ICAC.
Farrell was relatively new to federal politics, having entered the Senate in 2008, but the right-wing factional powerbroker was a decades-old veteran of the dark arts.
Labor was flogged in Penrith by a then-record two-party swing against it of 26 per cent. Farrell witnessed first hand not only an unbridled hostility towards state Labor that day, but federal Labor as well. His growing belief that Kevin Rudd, too, had become unelectable, was crystallised.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/want-to-switch-super-here-s-what-to-check-20200615-p552p6
Want to switch super? Here's what to check
Rather than making knee-jerk changes to your asset allocation in volatile markets, ensure you have the right mix of growth and defensive investments to begin with.
Joanna Mather Superannuation writer
Jun 20, 2020 – 12.00am
When markets hit the skids in March and governments prepared to shut down economies around the world, some super savers were quick to move their money to more defensive investment options, principally cash. But other super switchers were younger savers wanting to increase their allocation to shares to take advantage of any rebound.
It's a reminder to all super savers to ensure they're in the right mix of growth and defensive assets to begin with.
Ever heard this one? Take 100 and subtract your age. The answer provides a rough recommendation about the proportion of your portfolio that should be given over to growth assets. According to this adage, somebody who is 40 ought to have an allocation to growth assets of about 60 per cent.
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The secret trial that could turn pear-shaped for the government
Andrew Clark Senior writer
Jun 20, 2020 – 12.00am
In 2004, Timor-Leste was on its knees. After more than a quarter of a century of Indonesian occupation, massacres and civil war, it had an infant mortality rate that was 20 times higher than Australia’s, and a maternal mortality rate more than 80 times worse.
The one potential lifeline was a continental shelf rich in oil and gas that straddled the Timor Sea border with an Australia that had been the fledgling state’s friend and key support during its violent separation from Indonesia.
This included Australia leading a 9000-strong, UN-sanctioned military contingent in Timor-Leste – a show of force that underwrote its emergence into formal independence.
It was therefore not unreasonable to assume negotiations between both states over the Timor Sea would lead to an equitable carve-up of its energy-rich continental shelf. Wrong.
John Howard’s Coalition government turned to the Australian Secret Intelligence Service to secure the upper hand, and the top secret security agency reportedly used the cover of an aid project to install listening devices in Timor-Leste's cabinet office in Dili.
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Proposed overhaul of university fees nothing short of radical
Tim Soutphommasane
Political philosopher and columnist
June 20, 2020 — 12.00am
If the government has its way, our universities will be hit shortly by a grand scheme of social engineering. The proposed overhaul of university fees, announced on Friday, is nothing short of radical.
While fees for subjects in health, teaching, agriculture and science will be reduced, fees for subjects in the arts, humanities and social sciences will more than double. Education Minister Dan Tehan says this will mean students can complete a degree more cheaply if they choose to study in areas where “there is expected growth in job opportunities”.
There’s nothing wrong with the government seeking to meet skills shortages. Offering incentives for students to study in areas such as health, education and science is entirely appropriate.
But these moves go well beyond that. They have the clear aim of undermining the humanities and social sciences – the foundations of a modern liberal arts education. They are designed, in other words, to remake universities.
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Tehan offers a masterclass in bad public policy
Even if we assume the best of intentions by the government when it comes to the higher education reforms announced on Friday, there are significant problems with what has been proposed.
The aim appears simple enough: to increase the fees of courses believed to deliver worse job prospects than those in which fees are set to be decreased. In line with where the government believes the job market is heading in the years ahead.
As far as vocational education goes, that’s a reasonable enough goal. Putting to one side that universities are supposed to be more than just job-creating factories. Of course, once fewer people are studying philosophy and the like, there will be fewer people to think about such issues. No doubt an intended consequence of this policy script.
But has the government struck the right balance to achieve what it has primarily set out to do? That is, drive students towards certain subjects and away from others? With the goal of boosting demand in certain areas of employment.
In a word, no.
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Bushfire Crisis And Climate Policy
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No articles in this section
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Coronavirus And Impacts.
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Universities set to turn away hundreds of thousands of students
Robert Bolton Education editor
Jun 15, 2020 – 12.00am
Universities face turning away hundreds of thousands of students next year as applications to study surge but available places remain fixed, as the pandemic hits employment and higher education policy.
In NSW, 14,669 students have applied to start university in 2021, according to the Universities Admission Centre, compared with 7824 at this time last year – a jump of 88 per cent.
Admission centres in Queensland and Victoria also reported rising demand, with some people wanting to start studying as soon as August of this year.
The admissions centre in NSW says year 12 students have been quick to lock in plans, as they see the pandemic hitting the economy.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/economic-concerns-trump-health-fears-nab-survey-20200614-p552du
Economic concerns trump health fears: NAB survey
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Jun 15, 2020 – 12.01am
Fears of falling ill with coronavirus have receded and been replaced by rising concerns about the impact on the economy, according to research conducted by the National Australia Bank.
A nationwide survey of 2000 voters undertaken by the bank's behavioural economics unit during the final days of May, finds almost six in 10 Australians – or 57 per cent – rate the economic effects of the pandemic as their greatest concern.
This is an increase from 47 per cent when the survey was previously conducted in March, as the twin economic and health crises gripped the nation and the world.
Conversely, health concerns have eased from March to May as Australia has got on top of the virus.
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Potential 'avalanche' of small company wind-ups looms
John Kehoe Senior writer
Jun 15, 2020 – 1.26pm
The federal government and banks are discussing how to wean businesses off loan repayment holidays and the moratorium on insolvent trading after September, as corporate undertakers prepare for a wave of bankruptcies when the emergency supports end.
Despite the economy suffering a sharp recession due to COVID-19, the number of companies entering administration plunged 68 per cent to 56 entities in early June compared to the same week last year, according to insolvency data from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
Australian Restructuring Insolvency & Turnaround Association chief executive John Winter says some economic stress is inevitable when the support measures expire.
The stay of execution has been enabled by the government's JobKeeper wage subsidies, banks granting more than 215,000 businesses with loans worth over $59 billion a six-month repayment deferral and protecting company directors from insolvent-trading prosecution.
The extraordinary measures are due to expire in late September, setting up a potential economic cliff.
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One in five home loan deferral customers in strife
Consumer confidence may be rising, but the country's big banks suspect about 96,000 home loan borrowers who asked for a six-month loan deferral are facing financial difficulties.
Karen Maley Columnist
Jun 16, 2020 – 12.00am
Major banks are bracing for a savage increase in problems in their massive mortgage portfolios after preliminary investigations suggest up to one in five home loan borrowers who have asked for a repayment holiday during the coronavirus crisis are in deep financial strife.
According to the Australian Banking Association, banks granted home loan deferrals to 480,727 customers, whose total borrowings come to $173.4 billion.
This suggests that some 96,000 borrowers, with mortgages worth almost $35 billion, will end up in the banks' intensive care units.
In March, the country's largest home lenders allowed borrowers who had been thrown into financial stress by the coronavirus to defer their mortgages for up to six months.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/a-very-swedish-sort-of-failure-20200616-p552yw
A very Swedish sort of failure
Sweden’s overall mortality rate is still lower than some other countries that have instituted much stricter lockdowns. But there is less evidence that Sweden has succeeded in flattening the curve of infection.
Gideon Rachman Columnist
Jun 16, 2020 – 9.48am
There is something ghoulish about the way the rest of the world is watching Sweden’s experience with the coronavirus pandemic.
The country’s refusal to go for a hard lockdown has seen it hailed by right-wing populists around the world. By contrast, the liberal left in much of Europe and America seems almost eager to hear that the experiment has ended in disaster and despair.
Screens between the tables protect customers sitting outside at a restaurant in central Stockholm. The country’s goal was to keep society and the economy running, while preventing the health service from being overwhelmed. AP
Inevitably, the actual situation in Sweden stubbornly refuses to conform to the ideological biases of the outside world. On balance, the pessimists seem to be winning the argument.
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Healthy people deluged Sydney's emergency departments at peak of COVID crisis
By Kate Aubusson
June 17, 2020 — 12.00am
The peak of NSW's COVID-19 pandemic triggered a run on coronavirus tests that threatened to overwhelm Sydney's emergency departments had health authorities not scrambled to divert patients to fever clinics.
The NSW Bureau of Health Information's latest quarterly report shows thousands of people who did not need emergency medical care presented at the state's public hospitals in March seeking a swab test for the virus.
There was an 89.5 per cent increase in emergency department presentations in the lowest triage category (non-urgent) as the number of confirmed cases in NSW rose by the hundreds over the month, to reach 2680 on March 31.
A total of 43,805 people with non-urgent reasons for presenting had turned up at emergency departments in March, in the weeks before NSW Health opened its COVID testing clinics, the report released on Wednesday showed.
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First drug proves able to improve survival from COVID-19, trial shows
Updated June 17, 2020 — 5.49amfirst published June 16, 2020 — 10.49pm
A low-cost, widely used anti-inflammatory drug has improved survival in patients with COVID-19, scientists say, the first treatment to show lifesaving promise months into the pandemic.
Researchers in England say the steroid called dexamethasone reduced deaths by up to one third in severely ill hospitalised patients.
The results were announced on Tuesday and researchers said they would publish them soon. The study is a large, strict test that randomly assigned 2104 patients to get the drug and compared them with 4321 patients getting only usual care.
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Superspreaders, heavy breathers, loud talkers: how do you catch coronavirus?
Six months into the coronavirus crisis, there’s a growing consensus about a central question: How do people become infected?
It’s not common to contract COVID-19 from a contaminated surface, scientists say.
And fleeting encounters with people outdoors are unlikely to spread the coronavirus.
Instead, the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Crowded events, poorly ventilated areas and places where people are talking loudly — or singing, in one famous case — maximise the risk.
These emerging findings are helping businesses and governments devise reopening strategies to protect public health while getting economies going again. That includes tactics like installing plexiglass barriers, requiring people to wear masks in stores and other venues, using good ventilation systems and keeping windows open when possible.
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The worst is not over even if there is no second wave
I hope the OECD is right about Australia, I have a nagging suspicion not. I think they under-estimate the costs of avoiding that second wave.
Sam Lovick Contributor
Jun 17, 2020 – 6.41pm
The French can return to their Pernod and Gauloises in Parisian bars or, if their taste runs to ouzo, holiday in Greece. Not so the hapless British, banned from Greece, banned from their beloved pubs.
Illustrations of what the OECD terms the global economic tightrope; loosen too much, a second wave, loosen too little, worsen the economic harm.
The OECD thinks that Australian GDP will fall 5 per cent this year, recovering to trend growth rates next (only South Korea does better). But, they warn, if there is a second wave it will be 6.3 per cent.
The OECD average is 7.5 per cent, ‘plummeting’ 9.3 per cent in a second wave, the UK is 11 per cent, 14 per cent in a second wave. With or without a second outbreak, the consequences will be severe and long-lasting.
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It's no wonder we're all tired and irritable a lot of the time
Jessica Irvine
Economics writer
June 17, 2020 — 11.29pm
If you didn't get COVID-19 and you didn't lose your job because of it, the worst part for most Australians has been the hugely increased cognitive load resulting from it.
On the surface it's been a time of diminished choice. You couldn't leave your house. You couldn't find toilet paper. You couldn't sit in the park.
But you still had to figure out what you would do, and that required conscious thought.
There were still 24 hours in the day, after all. And absent our usual routines, we had to make it up on the fly. Still have to.
In reality, we've all seen a dramatic increase in the number of decision points in the day requiring conscious thought. Things we once did on autopilot, like giving a hug or touching your face, have now become critical decision points.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/superannuation/pandemic-intensifies-retirement-angst-20200618-p55427
Pandemic intensifies retirement angst
Aleks Vickovich Wealth editor
Jun 20, 2020 – 12.01am
Having benefited from compulsory super for only a portion of their working lives, today's retirees have long felt anxious about their finances. But new research indicates the past months of the coronavirus pandemic have soured the sentiment of older Australian investors further, with 80 per cent fearful their investments are not safe.
"COVID-19 has knocked Australian retirees and they are nervous," Matt Rady, chief executive of Allianz Retire+, tells Smart Investor Weekend.
The retirement income firm, a partnership between German insurance giant Allianz and US-based investment manager PIMCO, commissioned a survey of more than 1000 retirees in May, equally split between men and women already retired and those within seven years of retirement. Two-thirds of respondents had an annual household income below $79,000.
The research found only 18 per cent felt their nest egg was safe from the economic downturn, with four out of five respondents experiencing anxiety about their portfolio. Sixty-six per cent did not believe the superannuation system would provide them with a "dignified retirement".
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/could-there-be-a-second-wave-20200618-p5541j
Could there be a second wave?
After a fresh COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing, more cases across the US and an emerging crisis in the developing world, Australia is on high alert for a second wave. If it comes, we are ready, the experts say.
Jun 20, 2020 – 12.00am
The story was the same, 101 years apart.
Australians swelter through the summer holidays as a young man is placed in isolation in a Sydney hospital on January 25. He has just arrived from overseas, and his his symptoms resemble influenza.
Within days, authorities scramble to stop the spread of a deadly virus from overseas. Cases surge, travel stops and businesses are shuttered.
On January 25, 2020, the man is from Wuhan, China. He flew to Melbourne from Guangzhou.
On that same date in 1919, he’s a soldier home from World War I – the first hospital admission for Spanish flu in Australia. The Sydney Morning Herald reports officials saying there's "nothing yet to justify urgent measures".
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The coronavirus pandemic is accelerating, WHO chief warns
By Stephanie Nebehay and Michael Shields
June 20, 2020 — 3.37am
Geneva: The coronavirus pandemic is accelerating, with 150,000 new recorded cases in the past 24 hours the highest in a single day, the World Health Organisation (WHO) chief has warned.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said nearly half of the newly reported cases were from the Americas, with significant numbers from South Asia and the Middle East.
"The world is in a new and dangerous phase," he said.
"The virus is still spreading fast, it is still deadly, and most people are still susceptible.
"Many people are understandably fed up with being at home (and) countries are understandably eager to open up their societies." But Tedros warned that measures like social distancing, mask wearing and hand-washing were still critical.
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Only one way Scott Morrison can end a decade of political dysfunction
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editor for The Sydney Morning Herald
June 20, 2020 — 12.01am
At the time, it seemed to be Labor madness. It turned out to be a national madness.
Tuesday will be the 10th anniversary of the night when Julia Gillard deposed Kevin Rudd in a lightning coup to seize the prime ministership. It was destabilising enough for the Labor government, but as time went on it was revealed to be a much bigger event, with much wider consequences.
That sudden flash of internecine knifework marked the onset of a kind of deranged feverishness that gripped both major parties and sent the country into a decade of destabilisation and despondency.
The world was surprised, then amused, as the revolving door of Australian prime ministers spun wildly, again and again, six changes of leader in 10 years. The BBC's Nick Bryant dubbed Canberra the "coup capital of the Western world". Policy reform stalled. Public trust soured. Unsolved problems festered.
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Food for thought: social distancing will cripple restaurants
What to do with the JobKeeper allowance after September looks like being the most momentous economic decision for decades — it all depends what Australia’s chief medical officers decide to do about four square metres.
Right now, 3.3 million people and their employers are being supported by JobKeeper, at a cost of $10bn per month. If those people were unemployed instead of getting welfare via their employers, the unemployment rate would be above 30 per cent.
JobKeeper is legislated to end on September 27 — it is what Paul Keating might call L.A.W. law — but there’s a very large and very specific problem with the deadline: the four square metres rule.
On advice from the state and federal chief medical officers, national cabinet has decreed that each person in an enclosed space must have four square metres to themselves so they can’t spread SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, to someone sitting close by.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/new-victoria-covid-cases-delay-easing-20200620-p554k0
Victoria cracks down as COVID cases rise
Georgie Moore and Andi Yu
Jun 20, 2020 – 4.56pm
Victoria has scrapped plans to ease COVID-19 restrictions after another double- digit rise in new cases.
A total of 25 new cases have been recorded in the state on Saturday, up from 13 on Friday, 18 on Thursday and 21 on Wednesday.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has provided an update after a significant spike in coronavirus cases has led to a drop in the number of household guests allowed in Victorian homes.
Premier Daniel Andrews announced the lifting of restrictions would be halted until July 12 while some would be tightened.
From midnight on Sunday night to July 12, household gatherings will be reduced to five people. Outdoor gatherings will be restricted to 10.
Cafes, restaurants and pubs had been set to be allowed 50 patrons at one time on Monday, up from 20 currently. But that will also be put on hold until July 12.
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COVID-19 treatment found by computer
A designer drug has been found in computer modelling studies to stop the coronavirus replicating.
Researchers from Monash University studied the effects on the novel coronavirus of a drug that was designed in the wake of the first SARS epidemic in 2003.
They found that the drug, known as alpha-ketoamide 13b, blocks one of the key proteins needed by the SARS-CoV-2 virus to replicate.
Tom Karagiannis, a researcher from Monash University’s Central Clinical School, said a supercomputer identified the effect of the drug on blocking the replication of SARS-CoV-2.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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There are no entries in this section.
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National Budget Issues.
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Australia recession: As our economy boomed, standards of living fell
For 30 years, Australia’s economy has been the envy of the world – but this has come at an extremely high price for the average Aussie.
news.com.au June 14, 20201:06pm
Australia’s economy was incredible. We were the world’s economic hero as we notched up a record three decades of uninterrupted economic growth.
It made us the glowing poster-child for how to run a country and officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) drooled all over us.
But now it is over.
A recession is here and our economy is shrinking. It’s the perfect time to ask the following questions:
• What have we got to show for all that growth?
• Was it worth it?
• Would we do it all the same next time?
We are certainly a lot richer as a country, as the next graph shows. Nobody disputes that.
Over $2 trillion worth of economic activity flowed through our wide brown land in the last year, far more than back in 1990, when we were on the brink of our last recession.
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Fuel reserves to be boosted by 30 days, stored onshore
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Jun 15, 2020 – 12.01am
The federal government will expand domestic fuel reserves under a plan it says will enhance national sovereignty.
Following several years of calls to expand its onshore reserves in an increasingly volatile world, Energy Minister Angus Taylor will on Monday call for submissions to store an extra 7 million to 15 million barrels. This would be the equivalent of 14 to 30 days of domestic consumption.
Mr Taylor will also announce a review into the refinery industry to secure its viability as companies use the pandemic shutdown to cut output and bring forward maintenance.
Refineries will also start producing diesel for cars and trucks from a large stockpile of aviation fuel that has developed due to the shutdown of the airline industry.
Before the last election, then Labor leader Bill Shorten promised, if elected, to establish a domestic fuel reserve, saying it was a matter of national security.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/brace-for-tight-spending-controls-morrison-20200615-p552jw
Companies will fail after JobKeeper: Morrison
Phillip Coorey 15 June, 2020
Scott Morrison has warned of tight controls on spending as the government seeks to repair the budget.
He has also cautioned that some businesses will fail when JobKeeper is withdrawn.
He assured essential services would not be cut but, beyond that, there was little scope for new spending.
And while our expenditure measures have been designed to be targeted and time limited, the impacts on revenue will be longer lived as the economy makes its way back.
"We must be extremely cautious about our expenditure, especially as we navigate our way back from the record fiscal supports now in place,'' he said.
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Australia needs to forge its economic independence
If the coronavirus has taught us anything it is that politics always beats economics.
Faced with the prospect of a large and unpredictable number of deaths, and an overwhelmed health system, governments everywhere chose to shut down their economies and throw millions out of work.
Australia did that more effectively than most, and an economic depression with very few COVID-19 deaths is the result.
The same principle – that politics trumps economics – applies to the developing cold war between the United States and China.
President Donald Trump began a trade war that involved increasing the taxes that Americans pay for goods from China, seriously damaging the US economy, for purely political reasons. The close integration of the two economies has clearly been as beneficial for the US as for China, but an enemy “over there” is too useful for a President entirely focused on winning the next election.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/overseas-travel-collapsed-by-99-7pc-in-april-20200615-p552mq
Overseas travel collapsed by 99.7pc in April
Matthew Cranston and Fiona Carruthers
Jun 15, 2020 – 12.03pm
International travel to Australia stopped almost dead in April as COVID-19 restrictions sent overseas visitor arrival numbers plunging 99.7 per cent, the largest fall on record.
Australia also recorded its largest-ever decrease in overseas travel, with the number of Australians returning home after a short-term trip down 98.1 per cent from the same time last year.
The plunge was felt across the country, with the numbers for all states down 97.7 per cent or more.
The number of people arriving with international student visas in April dropped by 44,470, or close to 100 per cent compared with the same month last year.
Overseas visitor arrivals to Australia decreased 51.9 per cent in March compared with February, to just 307,900 trips.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/economy-added-124-000-jobs-in-may-20200615-p552u3
Economy added 124,000 jobs in May
Matthew Cranston Economics correspondent
Jun 16, 2020 – 12.06pm
Employment appears to have turned a corner in May, when the number of jobs in Australia increased by 1 per cent, the latest payroll data shows.
The reversal in job losses will likely strengthen Prime Minister Scott Morrison's intentions to scale back the $70 billion JobKeeper program and reintroduce JobSeeker obligations.
The latest payroll data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Taxation Office shows there was a 0.4 per cent increase in the number of payroll jobs in the week ending May 30.
ABS head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said jobs in the accommodation and food services sector increased by 5 per cent in May, but remained 29.1 per lower than in mid-March.
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'Long and lingering shadow': Payrolls recover but one in 10 jobs in Sydney, Melbourne CBDs disappear
By Shane Wright
June 16, 2020 — 3.55pm
The worst appears to be behind the nation's jobs market as some of the sectors hit hardest by coronavirus-related closures start to put on staff but the Sydney and Melbourne CBDs look set to take longer to fully recover.
Special data collated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, released on Tuesday, showed the number of people on business payrolls grew by 0.4 per cent in the week ending May 30 as restaurants, cafes and general retailers opened their doors.
Accommodation and hospitality payroll numbers improved by 2.1 per cent in the week, although they are still 29.1 per cent down since mid-March. Almost all sectors are starting to put on staff although healthcare and construction have lost workers in recent weeks.
Through the full month of May there was a 1 per cent increase in payroll numbers, equating to almost 125,000 people back at work.
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With economic recovery far from assured, the PM's nerve may be fraying
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
June 17, 2020 — 12.02am
Looking back, Scott Morrison's response to the coronavirus has been masterful on the medical side and, on the economic side, his willingness to spend money cushioning the job-threatening consequences of the lockdown was unstinting. But (and there had to be a but) with the economy's recovery far from assured I fear his nerve may be cracking.
The plain truth is that the only way out of deep recessions is for governments to spend their way out. But for a government as far to the right as Morrison's, spending money with enthusiasm is an unnatural act. It has an ideological objection to government spending which, it believes, is a necessary evil at best, and so should be kept to a minimum.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has outlined what he will and won't do to get Australia out of recession, caused by the coronavirus.
It claims to be motivated by the pursuit of Jobs and Growth but its "revealed preference", as economists say – not what it says, but what it does – is to prioritise the elimination of debt and deficit.
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ABS May unemployment: Jobless surge worst since 1980s
The unemployment rate surged to 7.1 per cent in May, bringing about the biggest increase over two months since 1982, as lockdowns saw a further 227,000 workers lose their jobs.
The jobless rate rose from 6.2 per cent in April to 7.1 per cent – the highest level since late 2001 - the ABS said on Thursday, revealing the total number of hours worked in the economy were 10.2 per cent lower in May than in March, before the coronavirus pandemic.
“The drop in employment, of close to a quarter of a million people, added to the 600,000 in April, brings the total fall to 835,000 people since March,” said Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS.
“The ABS estimates that a combined group of around 2.3 million people - around 1 in 5 employed people - were affected by either job loss between April and May or had less hours than usual for economic reasons in May,” Mr Jarvis said.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/jobs-versus-hours-worked-is-the-new-battle-20200618-p553xo
Jobs versus hours worked is the new battle
The challenge during the difficult coronavirus recovery will be managing the unavoidable trade-off between the total number of jobs available and the amount of hours worked.
John Kehoe Senior writer
Jun 18, 2020 – 4.47pm
A record high one in five people are either unemployed or working less than they want to.
The economic and political challenge during the difficult coronavirus recovery will be managing the unavoidable trade-off between the total number of jobs available and the amount of hours worked by employees.
The history of past recessions shows that hours worked recover much faster than the number of new jobs created, as employers top up additional hours of existing workers before hiring extra staff.
When the JobKeeper wage subsidy is scheduled to expire in late September, Prime Minister Scott Morrison hints that workers may need to accept fewer hours to stay in a job under a more "flexible" industrial relations system.
Fewer hours in a "real" paid job is better than being unemployed, Morrison believes.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/jobs-the-real-test-for-emerging-from-dark-times-20200618-p553zu
Jobs the real test for emerging from dark times
The disappointing jobless numbers for May are just the start of the battle to stop the results for unemployment becoming permanent.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun 18, 2020 – 7.56pm
Even the dismal May unemployment figures offer a misleadingly positive backdrop to the minimum wage decision expected from the Fair Work Commission on Friday.
The official 7.1 per cent jobless rate, while higher than expected, is still massively distorted by the JobKeeper payments for over 3 million Australians as well as by a another sizeable fall in the participation rate. The real story is the loss of another 230,000 jobs in the month as well as what will happen to businesses and jobs when JobKeeper officially ends in September.
Employers warn any increase in the minimum wage – with the inevitable flow on effect to other award rates – will make it even harder for many struggling businesses to keep their workers. That logic is not shared by the union movement, with the ACTU asking for a 4 per cent increase.
Some deals will still be done. Just how many and how substantive these will be is much less certain.
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Cost of priority degrees to be slashed, some fees to soar in funding overhaul
By Fergus Hunter
June 19, 2020 — 12.00am
Fees for university courses in health, teaching and science will be cut while the cost of popular humanities, law and commerce degrees will soar under sweeping changes to higher education funding aimed at producing graduates for high-priority employment areas.
The overhaul of student and government contributions to be announced on Friday will fund an extra 39,000 university places by 2023 and 100,000 by the end of the decade in response to surging demand for tertiary education.
The cost of humanities and communications courses will more than double, with a year of full-time study costing $14,500, up from $6684 this year. Fees for law and commerce will increase 28 per cent to $14,500 a year, up from $11,155. A full three-year program in these disciplines will cost students about $43,500 as the government slashes its funding contribution.
Teaching, nursing, clinical psychology, English, languages, maths and agriculture courses will cost $3700 a year, down by 46 to 62 per cent. Fees for science, health, architecture, environmental science, IT and engineering will drop 20 per cent, with a year of study costing $7700.
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The budget rebuild runs into the reality of a terrible jobs market
By Shane Wright
June 18, 2020 — 3.38pm
On Monday, Scott Morrison warned the country there was a balance to be struck between government support for the economy and fiscal rectitude.
"We cannot say to Australians that government or anyone else, ultimately, will be in a position to ensure that every job can be saved, and every business can be saved. That is unrealistic," he said.
Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has discussed the 'devastating' unemployment figures due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The Prime Minister made clear the budget would be recalibrated to keep expenditure under control while boosting the economy through a suite of largely undefined pro-growth policies.
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Recovery from recession won't get us out of the low-growth trap
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
June 19, 2020 — 11.16am
The most useful insights in economics are deceptively simple. The most widely relevant is the idea of “opportunity cost” – whatever you choose to do costs you the opportunity to do something else – but the most useful after that is probably the notion of supply and demand. This can tell us much about why we’re in recession and how we recover from it.
The discipline of “micro-economics” tells us that a market consists of firms willing to supply a particular good or service and customers interested in buying (demanding) that good or service. If the two sides can agree on the price of the item, a sale is made. It’s the relative willingness of the supplier and the demander that determines the price.
The discipline of “macro-economics” takes all the markets that make up a market economy like ours and studies the relative strengths of “aggregate” (total) supply and “aggregate” demand. When aggregate demand is growing more strongly than aggregate supply, this puts upward pressure on prices, causing inflation.
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Radical shake-up for university fees proposed
Humanities students will face a massive fee hike while those studying maths, teaching and nursing will have course costs slashed under a comprehensive university funding shake-up to be announced by the Morrison government on Friday.
Education Minister Dan Tehan will outline the most significant change in the cost of university tuition in more than a decade, with students encouraged to take courses in areas where employment demand is expected to grow.
Maths and agriculture degrees will have student contributions slashed by 62 per cent — to $3700 a year — while those studying teaching, nursing, English, foreign language and clinical psychology will also pay $3700, 46 per cent less than they do now.
Law, economics, management and commerce subjects, however, will face fee hikes of 28 per cent, with students paying $14,500 a year. Humanities, society and culture and communications degrees will cost $14,500, a 113 per cent fee rise compared with current costs.
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Health Issues.
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Just what the doctor ordered: BGH buys Healius' medical centres
Sarah Thompson, Anthony Macdonald and Tim Boyd
Jun 14, 2020 – 12.41pm
Australian private equity firm BGH Capital is set to become one of the biggest operators of medical centres in the country after agreeing a deal to acquire Healius' 70-odd medical practices.
Street Talk can reveal BGH and ASX-listed Healius signed adeal on Saturday that will see BGH pay about $500 million for Healius' medical centres.
The deal is understood to be fully funded and binding and will be announced on Monday morning.
It will see BGH Capital become a major player in Australia's healthcare market, working with more than 1300 general practitioners, dentists, specialists and the like who occupy the 70-plus medical centres.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/here-comes-the-covid-19-mental-health-surge-20200614-p552g6.html
Here comes the COVID-19 mental health surge
By Liam Mannix
June 14, 2020 — 4.15pm
A pair of new studies chart a dramatic increase in stress, anxiety, depression and overall poor mental wellbeing in Australia linked to the COVID-19 lockdown, confirming the warnings and fears of healthcare leaders and governments.
While the rise was predicted – COVID-19 brought with it a range of issues known to cause poor mental health – no one was really sure how large the problem would be or how many people it would touch.
The studies, both published this week, start to provide answers: one suggests the number of people displaying symptoms of anxiety, stress and depression in the community have risen between 13 and 21 per cent, while the other finds roughly one person in every five is now experiencing clinically-relevant depression symptoms.
“Up until now, there’s been a lot of anticipation. But there has not been a lot of empirical data” said lead author of one of the studies, research leader at the South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute’s Wellbeing and Resilience Centre Joep Van Agteren.
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BGH eyes healthcare empire after Healius buy
BGH Capital is believed to be on its way to building a major alternative healthcare services business that could list on the ASX in up to five years’ time for as much as $2bn.
It comes after Healius confirmed BGH Capital was the buyer of its medical centres division after DataRoom first tipped it was bidding for the business on March 2, and exclusively revealed it was closing in on an acquisition on June 9.
BGH Capital has outlaid $500m for the business, which has grown to include more than 86 centres, but it will not be taking away the day hospitals, which some still believe could be sold at a later stage, or the IVF clinics, which sit within the division.
The price was better than many had expected, sending the Healius share price soaring more than 18 per cent higher.
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Peak health regulator to ask for protection for healthcare complainants
By Rachel Clun
June 17, 2020 — 12.01am
Australia's peak medical watchdog will ask the federal government to adopt the NSW law making it an offence to threaten or intimidate a person out of continuing to make a medical complaint.
It comes after a review by the National Health Practitioner Ombudsman and Privacy Commissioner into confidentiality safeguards for people making complaints about healthcare practitioners.
The Australian Healthcare Practitioner Regulation Agency (AHPRA) asked the ombudsman to conduct the review in late 2018, after South Australian GP Dr Brian Holder was sentenced to 15 years jail with 10 years non-parole for the attempted murder of pharmacist Kelly Akenhurst.
Ms Akehurst had made a complaint about Dr Holder's prescribing practices, and ombudsman Richelle McCausland said in her report the judge in that case believed that complaint was a motive for the attempted murder.
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International Issues.
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MATTHEW SYED
We need to talk about empire: a conversation about Britain’s history is overdue
It’s time to interrogate our colonial past, says Matthew Syed
Pretty much all the most vivid memories of my childhood involve my dad. Handsome and charismatic, he came to the UK from Pakistan in 1961 to study law and met my mum, a red-haired girl from Wales. Both families were against the marriage, not least because of what it meant for the children. “They will be half-caste,” Mum’s aunt exclaimed, horrified. Thankfully (for me and my siblings), my parents rejected the advice, got hitched and are still together, more than 50 years later, living in the suburban semi in Reading where they have been since 1972; the house in which I grew up.
Dad has not been in the best of health, struggling with so many conditions we stopped keeping score. He has been in and out of hospital, most recently undergoing a heart operation. I was with him at the Royal Berkshire Hospital when he surfaced after the op and I often think about that conversation. We chatted about the Test match at Lords from the day before, then I put Yes Minister, his favourite programme, on the iPad. He was still a little groggy but he laughed — full belly laughs — at the antics of Jim Hacker and Sir Humphrey.
Dad has been on my mind a lot in recent days. As issues of empire and colonialism dominate the headlines, as statues become the locus for clashes, and as popular culture gets dragged into this tug of war, it is more important than ever to have a mature discourse about British history and race. This is worth doing not merely to enhance mutual understanding but to pull the rug from under extremists on both sides who are weaponising these issues for their own political ends.
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Fed pledges to use 'full range of tools' to boost economy
Martin Crutsinger
Jun 14, 2020 – 4.27pm
Washington | The Federal Reserve has promised to use its "full range of tools" to pull the country out of a deep recession caused by a global pandemic, signalling it would keep interest rates low through 2022.
In its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, the central bank said on Friday (Saturday AEST) that the COVID-19 outbreak was causing "tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world".
In response, the Fed said it was "committed to using its full range of tools to support the US economy in this challenging time."
The Fed's report comes two days after a policy meeting where the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of zero to 0.25 per cent and signalled it planned to keep it there for some time. The Fed said it would keep buying billions of dollars of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to support the operations of financial markets.
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Trump rally a 'dangerous move' as coronavirus cases spike in US
June 15, 2020 — 8.47am
Washington: After months away from the campaign trail, President Donald Trump plans to rally his supporters this coming Saturday for the first time since most of the country was shuttered by the coronavirus. Trump will head to Tulsa, Oklahoma – a state that has seen relatively few COVID-19 cases.
But health experts question the decision, citing the danger of infection spreading among the crowd and sparking outbreaks when people return to their homes.
The Trump campaign itself acknowledges the risk and has tried to protect itself from lawsuits with waiver language on its registration website.
A Reuters poll shows presumptive Democratic candidate Joe Biden expanding his lead over Republican Donald Trump as the president faces a health crisis, an economic downturn, and rising civil unrest.
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Black Lives Matter is about both race and class
The Black Lives Matter protests might herald a new era, not only for racial justice, but also for economic inclusiveness.
Rana Foroohar Contributor
Jun 15, 2020 – 11.44am
The death of George Floyd and the Black Lives Matter marches that have followed have made headlines the world over. But the longer-term political impact from these events could be more wide-ranging than anticipated – these protests over racial justice also have the potential to seed a new labour movement in the US.
Race and class are inexorably linked in the US. Hundreds of years of oppression of African Americans has led to higher levels of poverty and unemployment, as well as poorer educational outcomes. The net worth of an average white family was nearly 10 times that of a black household in 2016, according to a Brookings Institution study. This is partly because black families do not benefit from inherited wealth nearly as much as white families do.
Nearly one in five black families have debts that exceed their assets, but to the extent that they are able to accumulate wealth, it is being held in housing rather than stocks – 60 per cent of white families own equities as compared with 30 per cent of African American households. That means black families have not benefited as much from recent US Federal Reserve emergency actions that have buoyed sharemarkets.
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Nobody will escape if globalisation goes backwards
Globalisation has helped far more people than it hurt. The risks to it are far greater than US politicians on the left or right realise.
Kenneth Rogoff Columnist
Jun 15, 2020 – 1.07pm
The post-pandemic world economy seems likely to be a far less globalised economy, with political leaders and publics rejecting openness in a manner unlike anything seen since the tariff wars and competitive devaluations of the 1930s.
And the byproduct will be not just slower growth, but a significant fall in national incomes for all but perhaps the largest and most diversified economies.
In his prescient 2001 book The End of Globalization, Princeton economic historian Harold James showed how an earlier era of global economic and financial integration collapsed under the pressures of unexpected events during the Great Depression of the 1930s, culminating in World War II.
Today, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be accelerating another withdrawal from globalisation.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/fed-expands-corporate-bond-purchases-20200616-p552x1
Fed expands corporate bond purchases
Karen Brettell
Jun 16, 2020 – 7.05am
US Treasury yields rose on Monday as stocks recovered from earlier losses and after the Federal Reserve said it would expand its purchases of corporate bonds, boosting risk appetite.
The Fed said it would buy corporate bonds in the secondary market, aiming to create a portfolio that is based on a broad, diversified market index.
“The price action in the Treasury market reflects the Fed’s willingness to continue to expand its balance sheet to the benefit of spurring economic growth,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York.
Benchmark 10-year note yields gained one basis point to 0.708 per cent. They have fallen from an 11-week high of 0.959 per cent on June 5, when data showed that employers unexpected added jobs in May.
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In Xi Jinping's effort to make China No. 1, he's forgotten the basics
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editor for The Sydney Morning Herald
June 16, 2020 — 12.00am
Xi Jinping has set China the goal of leading the world in cutting edge technology, but has overlooked the very basics. While the regime is pursuing quantum computing, artificial intelligence and space dominance, it has neglected one of the founding concepts of physics. Isaac Newton's third law says that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.
As Xi pushes harder and harder for global dominance, he is provoking a growing pushback. Not just from the US. A growing number of people, countries and organisations are realising that Xi's China is not the China they thought they knew.
The China that had followed Deng Xiaoping's dictum to "hide your brightness, bide your time" for the preceding four decades was given a new direction by Xi: "Strive to achieve." It's no sin to strive. But when you are striving to take territory from your neighbours, sovereignty from your friends, and liberties from people everywhere, you are going to ruffle a few feathers.
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China’s rise not as certain as they’d have us believe
Beijing’s vindictive punishment of our universities, tourist sector, farmers, coal exporters and Karm Gilespie has shattered two widely held assumptions about China’s rise: that it will continue inexorably and is overwhelmingly to our benefit.
Legions of operators in the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Propaganda Department have skilfully spun the narrative that the country’s return to greatness is preordained. Best to get on the train before it leaves the station. We did in our thousands, crowding on to gleaming new locomotives to discover the mysteries and beauty of China, while trade boomed and the education and tourist sectors profited from an influx of Chinese students and free-spending tourists.
A few lone voices warned it might not be wise to put so many eggs in the China basket. Dependence on one market could expose Australians to unacceptable risk in the event of an economic shock or turn in the relationship. These warnings were largely ignored because there seemed no downside to ever strengthening ties with a country that had an insatiable appetite for all things Australian.
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IMF sees 'profound uncertainty' about global recovery
Andrea Shalal
Jun 17, 2020 – 12.51am
Washington DC | The International Monetary Fund will likely forecast a worse contraction in the global economy than previously estimated for 2020 and sees "profound uncertainty" about the path of recovery, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in a new blog.
Ms Gopinath said the economic crisis triggered by the novel coronavirus pandemic was more global and playing out differently than past crises, with the services sector hit harder than manufacturing in both advanced and emerging market economies, and inflation low across the board.
She also cited a striking divergence of financial markets from the real economy, which could portend greater volatility in financial markets and potentially sharp corrections.
The IMF is due to update its World Economic Outlook on June 24. Managing director Kristalina Georgieva last month said the Fund was "very likely" to revise downward its already pessimistic forecast for a 3 per cent contraction in global gross domestic output in 2020, but gave no details.
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Foreign Minister Marise Payne hits out at Chinese, Russian 'disinformation'
By Anthony Galloway
June 16, 2020 — 7.06pm
Foreign Minister Marise Payne has hit out at China and Russia for spreading disinformation during the coronavirus pandemic as she declared Australia would be more prepared to speak up on the world stage.
In her first major speech since the COVID-19 crisis spread around the world, Senator Payne said her government would continue to push for reform of global bodies such as the World Health Organisation so they "protect and promote our national interests".
Some foreign policy experts and senior Labor MPs have argued Senator Payne and Prime Minister Scott Morrison did not need to take a public role in pushing for the global review into the coronavirus, and blamed the government's position for China's trade strikes on $1 billion of beef and barley.
Senator Payne took on the criticisms of Australia's role, arguing the nation needed to take a more strident position or other countries would fill the void.
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Trump 'pleaded' with China's Xi to help him win in 2020: Bolton book
Jacob Greber United States correspondent
Jun 18, 2020 – 6.03am
Washington | Donald Trump asked China's President Xi Jinping at a dinner summit meeting last year to help him win the 2020 US election, according to an explosive book excerpt by former national security adviser John Bolton.
At the meeting at the June 2019 Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Mr Trump told Mr Xi – as both countries were in the thick of a bruising trade war – that if China increased purchases of US agricultural products, that would help Mr Trump's domestic political prospects.
Mr Bolton's description of the scene in his pending book The Room Where it Happened: A White House Memoir, will reprise memories of Mr Trump's attempts last year to pressure Ukraine's president to find dirt on Democratic rival Joe Biden – an episode that led to Mr Trump's impeachment.
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Office explosion destroys Korean detente
· The Times
South Korea warned it would “strongly respond” to further hostile action after North Korea blew up a liaison office jointly run by the two countries, in a dramatic collapse of Seoul’s diplomatic engagement with Kim Jong-un.
The destruction of the office, in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, came hours after Pyongyang threatened to advance military units into the demilitarised zone. Such a move would encourage a reciprocal action by South Korea, and mark the end of two years of efforts to reduce tensions between them.
It would also mark the latest, and perhaps terminal, setback in US President Donald Trump’s efforts to persuade Kim to give up his nuclear arsenal after two summits failed to close the gaps between them.
The destruction of the joint liaison office was filmed by cameras in South Korea and confirmed by the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency.
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The scandal of Trump’s China policy
The Trump presidency is not grounded in philosophy, grand strategy or policy. It is grounded in Trump.
By John Bolton
· From Dow Jones
June 18, 2020
US strategy toward the People’s Republic of China has rested for more than four decades on two basic propositions. The first is that the Chinese economy would be changed irreversibly by the rising prosperity caused by market-oriented policies, greater foreign investment, ever-deeper interconnections with global markets and broader acceptance of international economic norms. Bringing China into the World Trade Organisation in 2001 was the apotheosis of this assessment.
The second proposition is that, as China’s national wealth increased, so too, inevitably, would its political openness. As China became more democratic, it would avoid competition for regional or global hegemony, and the risk of international conflict — hot or cold — would recede.
Both propositions were fundamentally incorrect. After joining the WTO, China did exactly the opposite of what was predicted. China gamed the organisation, pursuing a mercantilist policy in a supposedly free-trade body. China stole intellectual property, forced technology transfers from foreign businesses and continued managing its economy in authoritarian ways.
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Dalio's Bridgewater warns of 'lost decade' for stocks
William Canny
Jun 19, 2020 – 3.14am
New York | A reversal of the strong growth seen over the years in US corporate profit margins could lead to a "lost decade" for equity investors, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates warns.
The margins, which have provided a big chunk of the excess return of equities over cash, could face a shift that would go beyond the current cyclical downturn in earnings, Bridgewater analysts wrote in a note to clients dated June 16.
"Globalisation, perhaps the largest driver of developed world profitability over the past few decades, has already peaked," the analysts said.
"Now the US-China conflict and global pandemic are further accelerating moves by multinationals to reshore and duplicate supply chains, with a focus on reliability as opposed to just cost optimisation."
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QAnon is helping Trump (and it's only just getting started)
From a conspiracy theory dubbed Pizzagate, QAnon has morphed into a rapidly expanding tribe that projects US President Donald Trump as a saviour, writes Adrienne LaFrance.
Adrienne LaFrance
Updated Jun 19, 2020 – 10.18am, first published at 9.20am
If you were an adherent, no one would be able to tell. You could be a mother picking leftovers off your toddler’s plate. You could be the young man in headphones across the street. You could be a bookkeeper, a dentist, a grandmother icing cupcakes in her kitchen. You may well have an affiliation with an evangelical church. But you are hard to identify just from the way you look – which is good, because someday soon, dark forces may try to track you down.
You understand this sounds crazy, but you don’t care. You know that a small group of manipulators, operating in the shadows, pull the planet’s strings. You know that they are powerful enough to abuse children without fear of retribution.
You know that the mainstream media are their handmaidens, in partnership with Hillary Clinton and the secretive denizens of the deep state. You know that only Donald Trump stands between you and a damned and ravaged world.
You see plague and pestilence sweeping the planet, and understand that they are part of the plan. You know that a clash between good and evil cannot be avoided, and you yearn for the Great Awakening that is coming.
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Record number of corporate bonds at risk of turning to junk
Hans van Leeuwen Europe correspondent
Jun 19, 2020 – 2.25am
London | The number of corporate bond issuers at the bottom edge of investment grade and teetering on the brink of becoming junk has hit a record high worldwide, ratings agency S&P Global has warned.
Thirty bond issuers worldwide have already achieved "fallen angel" status this year - dropping from investment grade to speculative status - and a record 126 further companies are on a rating of BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rung, with either a negative outlook or a CreditWatch with negative implications.
An issuer rated BBB- which is put on a CreditWatch negative placement typically has a 50 per cent chance of being downgraded to speculative status, while about one in three BBB- bond issuers on a negative outlook ends up falling from grace.
Financial institutions and airlines are the hardest-hit sectors, S&P said, singling out recent fallen angels such as British Airways plc, International Consolidated Airlines Group and Deutsche Lufthansa AG.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/the-world-s-ultra-rich-are-snapping-up-gold-20200619-p5544g
The world's ultra-rich are snapping up gold
Simon Jessop and Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi
Jun 19, 2020 – 3.58am
Zurich / London | As stock markets roar back from the coronavirus-led rout, advisers to the world's wealthy are urging them to hold more gold, questioning the strength of the rally and the long-term impact of global central banks' cash splurge.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, most private banks recommended their clients hold none or just a tiny amount of gold.
Now some are channelling up to 10 per cent of their clients' portfolios into the yellow metal as the massive central bank stimulus reduces bond yields - making non-yielding gold more attractive - and raises the risk of inflation that would devalue other assets and currencies.
While gold prices have already risen 14 per cent since the start of the year to $US1730 an ounce, many private bankers bet that gold - a hedge for both inflation and deflation - has further to run.
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Bolton says Trump not fit for office, lacks the 'competence' to be President
By Jordan Fabian
June 18, 2020 — 10.40pm
President Donald Trump is not "fit for office" in part because he was solely focused on his political fortunes, former national security adviser John Bolton said in an interview with ABC News.
"I don't think he's fit for office. I don't think he has the competence to carry out the job," Bolton said in a portion of the interview that aired Thursday.
Bolton's tell-all memoir is a withering criticism of Trump's leadership as president by a man who served as one of his closest advisers. It alleges that Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to help him win re-election by buying more US farm products, one of many examples that Bolton says the House could have investigated in its impeachment probe.
"There really isn't any guiding principle that I was able to discern other than what's good for Donald Trump's re-election," Bolton said. "He was so focused on the re-election that longer-term considerations fell by the wayside."
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'Too far gone to be saved': US bracing for a tidal wave of bankruptcies
By Mary Williams Walsh
June 19, 2020 — 9.28am
Already, companies large and small are succumbing to the effects of the coronavirus. They include household names like Hertz and J. Crew and comparatively anonymous energy companies like Diamond Offshore Drilling and Whiting Petroleum.
And the wave of bankruptcies is going to get bigger.
Edward Altman, creator of the Z score, a widely used method of predicting business failures, estimated that this year will easily set a record for so-called megabankruptcies — filings by companies with $US1 billion ($1.5 billion) or more in debt. And he expects the number of merely large bankruptcies — at least $US100 million — to challenge the record set the year after the 2008 economic crisis.
Even a meaningful rebound in economic activity over the coming months won't stop it, said Altman, the Max L. Heine professor of finance, emeritus, at New York University's Stern School of Business. "The really hurting companies are too far gone to be saved," he said.
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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/beijing-outbreak-a-warning-for-the-world-20200619-p55495
Beijing outbreak a warning for the world
Michael Smith China correspondent
Jun 20, 2020 – 12.01am
Shanghai | China's capital says a new outbreak of coronavirus cases originating in a fresh food market is under control but Beijing remains in semi-lockdown with millions barred from leaving the city, schools closed and the rest of the country on alert for a wider contagion.
The biggest spike of infections in China, one of the first places to get the pandemic under control, has worried scientists in Australia and other countries coming out of lockdown because it highlights that even the most heavy-handed controls cannot prevent further outbreaks.
By Friday, Beijing had reported 183 coronavirus cases linked to the city's biggest fresh produce market after a spike in cases starting eight days ago were linked to traces of the virus found on a chopping board used to slice imported salmon.
The city's 21 million residents and any visitors, including many Australian expatriates, have been banned from leaving the city for the foreseeable future. Flights were cancelled, schools and other markets were closed, entire neighbourhoods were locked down and authorities said they had tested 356,000 residents over the past week.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/deglobalisation-is-reshaping-our-world-20200619-p5546n
Quants show deglobalisation is reshaping our world
The decoupling of trade between the world's two largest economies will have profound consequences for portfolio construction that all investors should try to understand.
Christopher Joye Columnist
Jun 19, 2020 – 11.45am
If you believe the excerpts from John Bolton’s new book on his term as national security adviser to President Donald Trump, the putative leader of the free world is as mercenary and capricious as the worst possible caricatures, and is fundamentally undermining the US-established Western liberal-democratic order.
This, of course, is creating openings for its existential strategic rival, China, which President Xi Jinping has failed to capitalise on.
In one telephone call between Trump and Xi, the former Celebrity Apprentice host “stunningly turned the conversation to the coming US presidential election, alluding to China’s economic capability and pleading with Xi to ensure he would win,” Bolton claims.
“You’re the greatest Chinese leader in 300 years!” Trump allegedly told Xi, “amending that a few minutes later to ‘the greatest leader in Chinese history’.”
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
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