As I watch my Twitter feed it is becoming clear that a full-blown humanitarian disaster is unfolding in the South West of the US, while Florida Disneyland is reopening for heaven's sake!
We are seeing NY like scenes of hospitals failing to cope and death rates spiraling out of control. As of today only 7 of the 50 States are seeing the virus spread slowing (r <1.0).
The fault for this catastrophe can be laid squarely at the feet of a narcissistic President and a hopelessly divided polity where it seems most of the nation's leaders have forgotten what they are meant to do if disaster threatens - and it is not to continue to make a political issue of mask wearing and ignoring good science!
(In passing terrible leadership has also led to catastrophe in Brazil. Otherwise a number of countries are also looking at risk but they won't have the impact of the disaster that seems to be unfolding in the US. One commentator described it as a 'Category 6, slow moving hurricane'. Sounds about right.)
(In passing terrible leadership has also led to catastrophe in Brazil. Otherwise a number of countries are also looking at risk but they won't have the impact of the disaster that seems to be unfolding in the US. One commentator described it as a 'Category 6, slow moving hurricane'. Sounds about right.)
The USA has been in serious decline pretty much since the fall of the Berlin Wall triggered by totally excessive hubris on the part of its leaders - but, unless a major course change is executed, we may see a descent into anarchy and civil war among a population which has more guns than citizens. Scary what?
Australia has serious skin in this game and we should fervently hope sanity prevails and the worst scenarios to not eventuate. We are desperately vulnerable in a world that is becoming more unstable and dangerous by the month. One has to wonder how bad it has to get for the US to ease up on the silliness and get its act together - if it still can!
Back to Digital Health...
David.
Dry sad to watch the ugliness surface in the US. The cost to the world will be enormous I fear. Some good may come from this and some shift in balance but some will take decades to undo.
ReplyDeleteAs for Trump it is like watching the Omen storyline play out
Yes David, a pandemic is a horrible thing, but the "Fiasco" is the reporting and group think which ignores the empirical data. The evidence for lock down or mask wearing is a triumph of hope over reason and Sweden/Brasil are following the curve of their regions without a significant difference to strict lock down countries. The death rate in the US reflects appalling metabolic health related to processed foods and a failure to isolate the elderly and whats being reported is incidence rather than death rate. There will be deaths, like a bad influenza season, but not orders of magnitude different and the rates will be low in <65 unlike influenza. Our flu season is ahead of us and Melbourne is further south and will be the first domino to fall, but I suspect the rest of the country will follow, lock down or not. Its going to take a year or more for the data to come in, but lock down is killing lots of people, just look at the effect on cancer services. The mainstream media positions are about as good as the ADHA understanding of eHealth. If you want some real science look at the predictions of Micheal Levitt vs oxford debarkle and look into seasonality
ReplyDeleteeg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia8D7Gnq0TE
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013
It is important to note the number of deaths are now trending up nationally in the US having been stable to down for a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteI suspect 250,000 deaths will be seen over the next few months.
David.
"It's a hoax"
ReplyDelete- No. It's real and it's spreading.
"It's just like the flu"
- No. The death rate is about 100x the usual flu (deaths per million infected).
"Masks are ineffective"
- No. Masks are required by health workers. It's also as effective as immunisation for wider populations where community transmission exists.
"Masks obstruct breathing and scare the population"
- No. It stops and collects large particles, it doesn't stop gasses like oxygen. Typically takes slightly more effort to breathe. Even a poor mask helps to reduce the distance droplets travel. COVID-19 really restricts breathing far worse than a mask. A mask is not scary, getting the phone call of a loved one is close to death or just died is scary. Be alert regarding the virus but don't panic. Simple steps reduce the spread.
"Masks break my civil rights"
- Then keep your distance and don't break the civil rights of someone else who chooses to wearing one.
Some religious, psychological or conspiracy theory
- the virus is not affected by your beliefs and cannot be under the control of anyone, please check your facts. Rules are to control the spread of a disease that cannot obey laws, but we can. It's perfectly sane and natural to use technology and behaviour to protect ourselves from harm. We can protect ourselves with clothes, hats and gardening gloves in the garden. We use lead to reduce radiation exposure. Builders use appropriate dust mask, eye protection and ear protection when working with dust, grinding/cutting/welding or noise. Your air-conditioner in buildings and cars have some filtering. Gloves while washing up. Chain mail gloves while butchering meat. We don't need to stop there because it's "unnatural".
"I'm young and fit so I can have parties and don't care"
- No. With millions infected, young & fit are infected then spreading it to family incl. elderly. Young & fit are dying too, reality bites.
"Restrictions reduce employment and economic activity, we can't afford to close"
- No. If you can't afford to die, you can't afford to stay open without restrictions. Keeping this virus in circulation does more damage. Patients suffering can't work and sometimes those effects can last longer than expected. Patients who die cannot work again so the cost is higher than a short term closure compared to the rest of your life.
"We're just trying to flatten the curve and slowly reach herd immunity or wait for a vaccine"
- "Do or do not, there is no try". Just herd immunity is to do nothing and save no one, only delay the inevitable. Waiting for a vaccine can be too late. The difference between 1 and 500, is 1 month (doubling every 3days). Having 1 infected and not controlling is just as dangerous as having 500 infected then controlling. Total lock down and ensuring eradication is the most effective action to return to normal sooner. Half measures just delay the inevitable.
"We can't stop it so we're not going to try"
- Sorry, worst case scenario.
"Bleach and other cleaners kill the virus, why can't we just consume or inject those"
- Cleaning agents are toxic to all living biology and work by killing cells (or virus particles) and that includes you and me. If it kills biology, it kills us before it kills the virus in us.
"A person is smart. People are dumb." (see also the movie: Men In Black)
- What's happened to education, logic and critical thinking? When suprised or in a crisis, too many people act irrationally and trust the wrong people. After reviewing the evidence, I can't trust Mr Donald Trump. I would not like to be in the USA or Brazil at the moment.
"I'm young and fit so I can have parties and don't care"
ReplyDelete- No. With millions infected, young & fit are infected then spreading it to family incl. elderly. Young & fit are dying too, reality bites.
The last words of one who felt this way, after a COVID party - as they died of COVID-19 - "I think I have made a mistake!"
Says it all!
David.
COVID-19 is nature's way of increasing the IQ of the USA. Nature abhors stupidity. More stupid people will die. With a bit of luck, Trump, Pence, Barr and McConnell will get their just desserts.
ReplyDelete@July 13, 2020 1:17 PM
ReplyDeleteIt's called Cognitive Dissonance:
The Role of Cognitive Dissonance in the Pandemic
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/role-cognitive-dissonance-pandemic/614074/
It also explains the train wreck that is myhr:
"One of Aronson’s most famous experiments showed that people who had to go through an unpleasant, embarrassing process in order to be admitted to a discussion group (designed to consist of boring, pompous participants) later reported liking that group far better than those who were allowed to join after putting in little or no effort.
Going through hell and high water to attain something that turns out to be boring, vexatious, or a waste of time creates dissonance: I’m smart, so how did I end up in this stupid group?"
To add to this, those who did nothing to get their myhr (just about everybody) put little or no value on it.
There is so many statements here unsupported by the evidence. The mortality of Covid-19 is not orders of magnitude greater than a bad flu season, its just the predictions that were and they were wrong. The mortality in someone under 20 is roughly the same as the risk of a lightening strike, and yes they happen as well. The cost in lives lost because of inadequate treatment or suicide because of shut down is likely to be >100 lives lost to covid-19 so far, but if we get a seasonal spike many people with metabolic illness (which is more common in elderly) will die, lock down or not.
ReplyDeleteIts not nothing, its a pandemic, with results similar to a bad flu season, but nothing of the order of the Spanish Flu. Like it or not its happened and we have to face it, but need to look at actual data, not the media hysteria.
> The mortality of Covid-19 is not orders of magnitude greater than a bad flu season, its just the predictions that were and they were wrong.
ReplyDeleteWhat are you using for data for mortality? CFR, or overall mortality? and what are your actual data values for these?
Where did flu ever produce outcomes like those seen in northern italy or NY earlier this year?
> The mortality in someone under 20 is roughly the same as the risk of a lightening strike
So, overall mortality then? Is this a true statement based on current Australian case rates, current (say) NZ rates? or the kind of place USA is heading to?
And does flu ever have the kind of recovery profile that this virus is reported to have in a not insignificant number of cases?
> The cost in lives lost because of inadequate treatment or suicide because of shut down is likely to be >100 lives lost to covid-19 so far
do you have any numbers on this? Any actual modeling? or is just more of the same cherry picking loose predictions?
> but if we get a seasonal spike many people will die, lock down or not
I think it's far from proven yet how seasonal this is, and whether that is related to infectiousness or mortality (or both)
from your earlier comment:
> The evidence for lock down or mask wearing is a triumph of hope over reason
really? Do you have evidence for this, or this is also bias over data?
> Sweden/Brasil are following the curve of their regions without a significant difference to strict lock down countries
the only evidence in your references was that peru and brazil have similar curves in terms of cases/pop (very cherry picking the data). Other than that as far as I can tell, that's just a false statement. It may be that the swedish approach proves right for some value of 'right' in the long term, but it's far from obvious now.
> not the media hysteria
There's certainly problems with the media reporting. But clearly you think that the AHPPC is also subject to the same hysteria.
Hi Graham,
ReplyDeleteI suggest you look at https://www.euromomo.eu/
The mortality on population basis is around 0.04 - 0.07% of population. The case mortality rate was grossly over estimated initially, and most cases have minimal symptoms.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We don't normally report death rate from influenza in real time and corona had a sharp peak, but in many places the death rate was low for last few winters and is now below normal. 20% of people admitted to Swedish aged care died within a month anyway. The crisis is partially due to a lack of capacity in hospitals and a build up of vulnerable people. The UK ICUs coped. In a pandemic you expect hospitals to be stressed!
This is not a debate and time will tell, but there is no support for your statements other than opinion. I suspect there is a seasonality element based on prior evidence, and if so we are likely to get our turn soon. As I run a day surgery and medical practice I have more than a casual interest in the crisis and have read widely and don't have time to provide references for everything, but have been presented with none to back up what has been said!
do you have any numbers on this? Any actual modeling? or is just more of the same cherry picking loose predictions?
ReplyDeleteThere are a not an insignificant number of reports based on large scale research analysis surfacing. This research covers the social-economic impacts had and for cases to happen.
History even shows that in poverty and inequality people thrive and spend there days in a care-free optimistic place finding endless joy in facing the cold brutality of indifference shown by those more fortunate.
We face a wave that will go largely ignored.
For Info...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.healthleadersmedia.com/covid-19/study-shows-covid-19-body-count-20-times-higher-seasonal-flu-deaths
Study Shows COVID-19 Body Count 20 Times Higher Than Seasonal Flu Deaths
By John Commins | May 20, 2020
Confusion about lethality comparisons may be owing to "a knowledge gap" in how the CDC reports on seasonal influenza and COVID-19.
________________________________________
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• On average, CDC seasonal influenza death estimates are about six times greater than the number of counted deaths.
• Conversely, COVID-19 deaths are not estimated, but counted and reported directly.
• During two weeks in mid-April, 29,933 COVID-19 deaths were counted in the United States.
• CDC counted deaths during the peak weeks of the influenza seasons from 2013-2020 ranged from 351 in 2016 to 1,626 in 2018.
New research shows that counted deaths from COVID-19 in mid-April were about 20 times greater than seasonal influenza counted deaths recorded during peak weeks of the past seven flu seasons.
David.
And what is managements answer - redirect data away from the CDC to the White House. Any other country who’s leader was committing genocide on its people the United Nations would have formed a coalition of the willing to remove the murdering regime. It really is amazing how in such a short period of time a country like the US can fall so far.
ReplyDelete"...in such a short period of time "? It's how and why America was born - the founding fathers, mostly puritans, didn't like being told what to do and think. They still don't. It's in their cultural DNA. The religious right still want their freedom - at any cost.
ReplyDelete