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In the US there are 2 major news items. First is that distribution and use of a COVID vaccine has at least begun – will take months to finally really make a difference – and the second is that President Trump has been cancelled by the Supreme Court he stacked. The irony is wonderful!
In the UK it seems, while there is a little progress on COVID, there is none on Brexit and it is going to end very badly.
In OZ parliament is gone until February leaving some pretty live political fights to rumble on. Otherwise we see furious efforts to diversify trade away from the Middle Kingdom. Will be a long and hard effort! The failure of the UQ COVID vaccine was a bit of a blow to Australian morale.
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Major Issues.
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Apple Pay, Google Pay, you pay: RBA raises virtual wallet competition concerns
By Shane Wright
December 7, 2020 — 10.08am
The Reserve Bank is making the case for an overhaul of the powers it has over the nation's network of credit and debit cards in the face of growing technological change, warning the rise of Apple and Google-linked virtual wallets could hurt financial competition.
Bank governor Philip Lowe, addressing the Australian Payments Network on Monday, said the current laws covering everything from cards to interchange fees between retailers and card providers were more than 20 years old.
The Morrison government has commissioned a review of the current system, with Dr Lowe arguing there may be need for changes to deal with the way payments are rapidly changing.
"While the powers are quite broad, in practice the bank has the ability to regulate only a fairly limited range of entities," he said.
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The power of 'the firm': McKinsey's influence is spreading
By Lucy Burton
December 7, 2020 — 9.45am
When the bosses of one big bank realised it was time for a shake-up, the one thing everybody could all agree on was McKinsey should be involved. Even though the game plan for the institution was "obvious", as one senior executive involved admits, bringing the American consultancy into the room gave those in charge confidence.
"If you have a tough decision, then if McKinsey is round the table helping with those discussions, you have de-risked that process for yourself," the person explains. "You don't get sacked for hiring McKinsey. If it goes wrong for you and you didn't have them, then people might look at you and say, 'what were you thinking trying to save $US100,000 ($135,000)?'"
Wielding power over the corporate world with expensive advice - McKinsey advises 85 of the world's largest 100 corporations and one year charged its biggest customer $US60 million - is not its only skill.
The powerful management company nicknamed "the Firm" has long been described as a "CEO factory" due to the sheer number of McKinseyites who go from advising big businesses to running them. It has produced more than 70 past and present Fortune 500 CEOs and has 12 alumni (all men) in FTSE 100 chief executive or chairman jobs.
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Scott Morrison urged to prioritise religious freedoms
Australia’s faith leaders are urging Scott Morrison to put the implementation of a Religious Discrimination Act at the top of his political agenda next year, warning their congregations would hold the Prime Minister to his election pledge once COVID-19 passes.
Mr Morrison’s commitments to deliver protections for faith-based businesses, schools, hospitals, aged care homes and community organisations have remained stalled for 12 months after the government was forced to prioritise its responses to the pandemic and bushfire recovery.
Catholic, Anglican and Muslim leaders told The Australian work on a Religious Discrimination Act must begin as early as February when federal parliament returned from its summer break.
Some religious leaders argue COVID-19 restrictions, forcing the temporary closures and caps on congregations at churches, mosques and synagogues, had made religious protections more vital than ever.
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Caught in a bear trap: How 'short and distort' attacks are costing Australian investors billions
December 7, 2020
David Bryant is still grappling with an event that blindsided him 16 months ago and wreaked havoc on his company, ASX-listed agricultural investment firm Rural Funds Group.
“Everyone gives you a funny look of what have you been doing? You are completely friendless in a matter of minutes… Even your mother doubts you,” he said.
It was 10.37 am on August 6, 2019 – only a few minutes after the market had opened – when Texas-based Bonitas Research, an activist short selling operator, tweeted: “We are short Rural Funds Group … and believe it is a fraud. Expect [the company] to ultimately be worthless. New Fraud Report just released on our website ...”
Within 30 minutes Rural Funds' share price had plunged 42 per cent, wiping hundreds of millions of dollars off its market value as shareholders panicked and dumped the stock.
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Retirement 'adequacy' is a problem for Australia
Experts are nervous many investors and savers are headed for post-work living conditions well below their expectations, but are as divided as ever about the solutions.
Aleks Vickovich Wealth editor
Dec 8, 2020 – 12.01am
The Morrison government's retirement income review has hogged the headlines, but Australia was already slipping on the global rankings of pension systems before its much-anticipated release.
The review, chaired by veteran public servant Mike Callaghan, found the system was broadly "efficient and sustainable", while noting it was too complex and many retirees were not effectively utilising their existing savings.
Its release followed Australia's dropping from third to fourth place on the 2020 Global Pension Index, compiled by investment consultant Mercer and professional body the CFA Institute lists, in October.
It was pipped at the post by Israel, which was included on the index for the first time and has a retirement income system superior to Australia's on multiple fronts, according to Mercer senior partner David Knox.
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https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/how-much-do-you-need-to-retire-20201130-p56j99
How much do you need to retire?
Simon Evans Senior Reporter
Dec 8, 2020 – 12.01am
As the fierce policy debate about whether Australia should lift the superannuation guarantee continues to rage, there's one central question most people want to have answered for their own specific situation.
They want to know how much money they will need at the end of their working life to ensure a comfortable retirement.
In releasing the Retirement Income Review led by former Treasury Department veteran Mike Callaghan, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the findings were weighted against proceeding with the legislated increase to the super guarantee to 12 per cent from 9.5 per cent over the next five years.
John Moroney, the chief executive of the Self-Managed Super Fund Association, a lobby group for investors and service providers in the $735 billion SMSF sector, says the group is a big backer of the compulsory superannuation system but there are some who find themselves outside of it.
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The threats to Australia’s economy and democracy are grave but not insurmountable
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editor
December 8, 2020 — 12.10am
In his watershed work on Australia, Donald Horne posed the question about the nation that he christened The Lucky Country: “Can the racket last?”
He immediately answered his own question with a resounding “NO”. His capitals, not mine.
In that instance, in his 1964 book, he was talking about Australian economic protectionism which, of course, did not last.
But Horne equally might have been posing the question about Australia’s larger place in the world.
Australia for decades trusted its prosperity to China while trusting its national security to the US. It was easy. It was comfortable. And it was definitely a racket.
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Centrelink’s rules not leading to jobs: survey
Just one in eight people on JobSeeker think complying with their Centrelink activity obligations is helping them find paid work, and 80 per cent say the mutual obligation requirements are pointless, a survey by social services provider Anglicare finds.
The survey of more than 600 welfare recipients reveals around 75 per cent would be willing to do Centrelink activities that are fair, and lead to work.
The failure of the system in its purpose was a double whammy for people out of work, many of whom were living on less than $7 a day before benefits were boosted by the JobSeeker program introduced at the start of the COVID pandemic, Anglicare Australia executive director Kasy Chambers said.
Ms Chambers said the survey reveals 72 per cent of people without jobs receiving income support were having to skip up to four meals a week before JobSeeker.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-cash-is-an-investor-s-best-friend-20201203-p56kau
Why cash is an investor's best friend
Analysts will often turn to a company's cash flow statement to gain a true and unfiltered understanding of its financial performance.
Elio D'Amato Contributor
Dec 8, 2020 – 3.56pm
When investors assess company accounts they should be aware that profit comes from the statement of income and is a summary of transactions undertaken by a company.
Profit is overlaid with management’s interpretation of accounting standards, applied to revenue and expenses to arrive at a net profit/(loss) after-tax figure.
If you are still awake at this point, you should also know that the income statement and subsequent profit figure is calculated on the basis of accrual accounting.
Items are accounted for as they are earned or incurred and not as monies are received or paid. Further complicating this are the concepts of depreciation, asset revaluations, lease recognition and tax treatments.
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The five worst corporate stuff ups in 2020
The business community managed to make a year of tumult even more difficult by ensnaring itself in a series of scandals, cock-up and missteps.
James Thomson Columnist
Updated Dec 10, 2020 – 8.04am, first published at 12.15am
Put yourself on mute, rearrange your bookshelf to make yourself look smart and get ready for the 2020 Chook Roast Drumstick Awards, which will – naturally – be held on Zoom, dodgy internet connection and all.
If dealing with bushfires and the pandemic wasn’t enough to derail the best laid plans of Australia’s biggest companies, they still found an extraordinary number of ways to shoot themselves in the feet.
There were multiple sexual harassment scandals. There were accusations of bullying. There was treachery and malfunctions that wiped out the entire market, if only for a day. There was even a mini-series to watch, as the foibles of Crown Resorts were beamed into home offices and kitchen tables around the country.
In a year when the power of community was highlighted, it was clear that big business can still struggle to judge community expectations.
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https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/rio-tinto-s-juukan-gorge-shame-must-burn-20201209-p56m3h
Rio Tinto's Juukan Gorge shame must burn
A parliamentary inquiry into the destruction of the 46,000-year-old sacred site has savaged Rio Tinto's culture and will haunt it for years.
Dec 9, 2020 – 7.17pm
It’s not the money that Rio Tinto needs to worry about when assessing the recommendations from a parliamentary inquiry into the miner’s destruction of the 46,000-year-old Juukan Gorge rock shelters in May.
It’s the shame.
The headline recommendation from the joint standing committee on Northern Australia is for Rio to pay restitution to the Indigenous owner of the land on which the rock shelters were located, the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura people.
The committee also says Rio should ensure a “full reconstruction of the Juukan rock shelters and remediation of the site at its own expense”, and commit to review its mining activity “until free, prior and informed consent has been obtained from Traditional Owners and is current”.
Rio must also “return all artefacts and other materials held by Rio Tinto to PKKP” and then fund appropriate places to keep these.
Meeting these recommendations will be costly and disruptive – and so they should be.
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Why Australia needs a total national interest strategy
The new focus on national security needs to be thought of together with our prosperity and social cohesion as an integrated whole.
Rory Medcalf and Michelle Price
Dec 9, 2020 – 5.52pm
For Australians, the contours of our security and economy over the past 30 years are the fading memory of a holiday from history.
As we assess the damage from this year’s three shocks – bushfires, pandemic and China’s campaign of pressure – we can’t go back.
In this new world, strategic competition between powerful nations is heightened. Our interests, values and the way they combine to make this country’s sovereignty and identity: these will be under constant pressure from multiple directions.
The new geopolitics has made the character of risk an intrusive shape-changer: connectivity, cyberspace and great-power rivalry collapse the boundaries between security and economics, domestic and international, people and technology.
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The era of AI assassinations has arrived
· The Times
If you want to kill a snake, runs the Arab proverb, you cut off its head. Targeted assassinations seek to do just that and have become not only part of the Hollywood thriller repertoire but also a staple of shadow wars in the real world.
Now the revolution in military technology — artificial intelligence, sophisticated tracking of potential victims, remotely controlled precision weapons — has changed the terms of the hit job. It is becoming an easy and all-too-tempting option.
Military commanders, intelligence chiefs and politicians should be getting around a table with ethicists and lawyers to discuss the limits of assassination in the new age. They’re not.
The Babylonian Talmud advises: “If someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill him first.” That might have been the logic of placing a satellite-operated machine gun on a ute on a road in Tehran late last month. When the car of Brigadier-general Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, known as the father of the Iranian nuclear program, passed close to the truck, the gun was remotely triggered. The nuclear scientist was killed. Fakhrizadeh’s wife, sitting in the same car, was not. This, say the Iranian investigators, demonstrates that facial recognition data had been fed into the assassination algorithm. Her face did not fit, so she survived.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/financial-adviser-ethics-regulator-shut-down-20201210-p56m8l
Financial adviser ethics regulator shut down
Aleks Vickovich and John Kehoe
Dec 10, 2020 – 10.42am
The Financial Adviser Standards and Ethics Authority will be wound up with the thorny task of implementing the Morrison government's contentious mandatory education and ethics regime to be shared between Treasury and the corporate regulator.
The government agency, established by the Coalition government in 2017 before the Hayne royal commission, had a tumultuous if short-lived history, faced with trenchant opposition from industry and criticism from MPs over a perceived lack of consultation.
The decision came as legislation was introduced on Wednesday acting on four Hayne recommendations affecting financial advice, including forcing advisers to disclose whether they are legally "independent" and allowing one-off advice fees to be deducted from MySuper accounts.
Under the changes, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission's financial services and credit panel will have its powers extended to better oversee the 25,000 financial advisers, to fulfill a a separate Hayne recommendation to establish a single disciplinary body for financial advisers.
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The real reasons why Trump supporters believe they were robbed
A brain's built-in biases can insulate beliefs from contradictory facts – and for some people, no amount of concrete evidence will change their minds.
Jay Maddock
Dec 11, 2020 – 10.54am
A rumour started circulating back in 2008 that Barack Obama was not born in the United States. At the time, I was serving as chair of the Hawaii Board of Health. The director and deputy director of health, both appointed by a Republican governor, inspected Obama’s birth certificate in the state records and certified that it was real.
I would have thought that this evidence would settle the matter, but it didn’t. Many people thought the birth certificate was a fabricated document. Today, many people still believe that Obama was not born in the US.
More recently, I was listening to a “Science Friday” podcast on the anti-vaccination movement. A woman called in who didn’t believe that vaccines were safe, despite overwhelming scientific evidence that they are. The host asked her how much proof she would need in order to believe that vaccines were safe. Her answer: no amount of scientific evidence could change her mind.
As a psychologist, I was bothered, but not shocked, by this exchange. There are several well-known mechanisms in human psychology that enable people to continue to hold tight to beliefs even in the face of contradictory information.
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https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-value-investing-is-back-in-vogue-20201211-p56mqw
Why value investing is back in vogue
Equity strategists all around the world are telling investors to shift from growth and momentum to the value investment style. One leading fundie explains why value investing is back.
Dec 12, 2020 – 12.00am
When the latest performance rankings of equity fund managers are released next week, one group of fundies will stand out because of their extraordinary returns in November.
The value managers, who have been out of favour and poor performers for several years, will be the stars in the regular monthly Mercer Investment Survey.
It is believed some fundies will have a November return in excess of 20 per cent, double the 10 per cent return from the typical benchmark - the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index.
Chanticleer is wary of focusing on short term returns and is conscious that past performance is no guide to future returns. But the environment for the value style of investing is clearly the best it has been for more than five years.
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https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/the-inside-story-of-how-juukan-gorge-was-lost-20201210-p56mih
The inside story of how Juukan Gorge was lost
A four-month inquiry into the destruction of the 46,000-year-old sacred site has made clear this was a tragic failure of communication on all sides.
Peter Ker Resources reporter
Dec 12, 2020 – 12.00am
It was late October 2019 and the mercury was peaking at 31.7 degrees as representatives of Rio Tinto and traditional owners escorted university students to a creek bed at the western end of the Juukan Gorge.
A crucial but undocumented conversation began. Dr Heather Builth from the native title corporation that governs the interests of the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura people (PKKP) asked Rio's mine operations manager Brad Webb about the future of the gorge.
''While standing at the base of the gorge and pointing directly to the rock shelters, Builth asked the mine operations manager about the status of the mining activity at Juukan Gorge and what plans Rio Tinto had for the immediate area,'' said the PKKP in its submission to the parliamentary committee that has since probed the incident.
There was no paperwork involved and no-one was keeping minutes of the conversation, let alone the exact direction people were pointing with their fingers.
'Communication between Rio Tinto and the PKKP failed, with the two sides remaining largely oblivious to each other’s plans.
— Parliamentary committee into Juukan Gorge
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More than just fishing behind China's $200m deal
China's $200 million ‘fishery’ investment in an area not known for an abundance of fisheries but strategically as close to Australia as you can get, surely raises questions about the real agenda.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Updated Dec 11, 2020 – 5.09pm, first published at 4.12pm
Amid the din and racket of politics at the end of what has been, by any measure, an extraordinary year, the continuing and growing deterioration in our trade relationship with China has lost its novelty value.
More tariffs on Australian wines this week? More restrictions on meat and timber?
The gradual but relentless closing down of trading opportunities with China has reached that stage in the news cycle where you struggle to remember which sanctions are old and which ones are new and, besides, there isn’t much expectation that anything is going to emerge to break the stalemate any time soon.
You can only ask Trade Minister Simon Birmingham so many times whether he has picked up the phone to his Chinese counterpart.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/australia-s-aaa-rating-is-rock-solid-20201210-p56m71
Australia’s AAA rating is rock solid
In a world where central banks are actively depreciating their currencies, the RBA is having to play catch-up to ensure Australians are no worse off.
Christopher Joye Columnist
Dec 11, 2020 – 2.07pm
Standard & Poor’s confirmed during the week that Australia’s AAA rating was rock solid, despite downgrading NSW and Victoria from AAA to AA+ and AA, respectively.
This was an important message because there had been feverish speculation in the markets that the move to deprive our two largest states of their prized AAA monikers presaged a similar sovereign downgrade.
S&P still has Australia on a “negative outlook”, which means there is a one-in-three chance it could push the nation down to the AA band in the next couple of years. Our central case has, however, been that Australia will retain its AAA rating. We expected the Victorian downgrade but were surprised by the decision regarding NSW, which we believe S&P will eventually be forced to reverse.
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How other nations are feasting on China's beef with Australia
By Eryk Bagshaw
December 11, 2020 — 3.40pm
At the China International Import expo in Shanghai last month, the Argentinian Beef Association was ready to pounce on Australia's misfortune.
Argentina has maintained strong diplomatic relations with China since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Beijing sent tonnes of medical equipment to Argentina as COVID-19 began sweeping through Latin America. Even though they all had to endure 14-day quarantine to attend, 58 representatives of the beef association were in the hall to show off its sirloin and rib eye.
Australia is not unique. At least 60 countries count China as their number one export market.
Argentina is one of the hungriest, but also lining up: Russia, Indonesia, South Korea and Brazil. And all of them want a cut of Australia's lunch.
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Australia and Taiwan in sensitive trade talks as China slams the door
By Anthony Galloway and Eryk Bagshaw
December 12, 2020 — 11.45pm
Australian officials have been talking with Taiwan about boosting trade between the two economies as the Morrison government looks for alternative markets for billions of dollars worth of exports hit by China’s trade strikes.
Officials from the Department of Foreign and Affairs and Trade have held meetings with counterparts in the Taiwan government in recent weeks to discuss more trade opportunities.
While the Australian government has at this stage ruled out striking a free trade agreement with Taiwan, the two countries are discussing options to boost exports into the self-governed democracy of 23 million people.
Any move to enter a formal economic agreement with Taiwan could further inflame tensions with China, which has claimed sovereignty over the island state since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.
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Productivity is almost magical, but don’t forget the side effects
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
December 11, 2020 — 3.15pm
Something we’ve had to relearn in this annus horribilis is that the state governments still play a big part in the daily working of the economy. Another thing we’ve realised is that the Productivity Commission is so important that some of the states are setting up their own versions.
When you put the word “productivity” into the name of a government agency, you guarantee it will spend a lot of its time explaining what productivity is – a lot of people think it’s a high-sounding word for production; others that it means we need to work harder – and why it’s the closest economics comes to magic.
Earlier this year the NSW Productivity Commission issued a green paper that began with the best sales job for the concept I’ve seen. Its title said it all: Productivity drives prosperity.
Its simple definition of productivity is that it “measures how well we do with what we have. Productivity is the most important tool we have for improving our economic [I’d prefer to say our material] wellbeing,” it says.
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Can China trade tensions boil over to Australian iron ore?
By Dr Luke Hurst and Peter Cai
December 11, 2020 — 12.00am
As 2020 ends, Australia’s relationship with China just keeps getting worse. It is a national story with global dimensions: South Australian wine, Tasmanian lobster, Queensland timber and Western Australian barley are now caught up in the deteriorating diplomatic and strategic situation.
But the need to manage Chinese and Australian self-interest in post-COVID development plans has meant that while we are seeing a barrage of blows, there has been no knock-out punch.
The assumption at the moment is
Australia’s prized iron ore exports are untouchable. During the 2019-20
financial year, Australia’s iron ore export earnings were $US102 billion, of
which China accounted for $US84.9 billion (equivalent to around $US3400 for
each person living in
Australia).
In 2019-20, Australia accounted for 53 per cent of global iron ore exports (most of which went to China), Brazil was the second largest exporter with a 21 per cent share, there’s then fresh air to round out the top five with South Africa supplying 4 per cent, Canada 3 per cent, and India 2 per cent.
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Government, banks, regulators close ranks to protect homeowners
Residential property dominates the assets held by Australia’s household sector, residential mortgages account for 62.8 per cent of the debt held by households and the construction industry is the third-largest employer in Australia.
Consequently, the one thing the government, regulators and the Reserve Bank does not want is a full-blown housing collapse. And for that reason, the probability of experiencing one is very low.
Property bears should also remember that thousands of property owners have been lured by the government into becoming property owners through incentives such as first-home buyers’ grants, mortgage guarantee schemes and, most recently, the HomeBuilder scheme.
In 2018, I reported that as much as 50 per cent of all loans written in 2014 and 2015 were interest-only. These were due to mature in 2019 and 2020, but only after a 30 per cent cap was placed on the proportion of “new” mortgages banks could write as interest-only. The combination meant that, despite rising arrears and mortgage stress, a large proportion of people who borrowed on interest-only terms in 2014 and 2015 would be forced on to unaffordable “principal and interest” loans in 2019 and 2020, sending the property market crashing via a wave of forced sales.
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Coronavirus And Impacts.
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Portfolio principles to think about for the recovery
Even small allocations to fixed income can greatly reduce total portfolio volatility.
Tamar Hamlyn
Dec 7, 2020 – 12.01am
The Australian economy appears to be rocketing out of the gates, with strong momentum into 2021 as confidence and consumption recover.
Some international economies are not too far behind, amid a rising tide of hope that rapid vaccine penetration will be enough to counter any second and third-wave remnants.
The boost to household wealth, coming from highly effective income support measures, was first visible in the rising savings rate, and in growing bank deposits. The superannuation system’s early release scheme delivered an even larger uplift for some.
But now, with confidence surging and wallets full, households are keen to make up for lost time. A bumper retail shopping season looks likely, supported by pent-up demand. And with coastal holiday beds booked out for months, the momentum looks set to continue well into next year.
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are projected to increase to 2030 as Australia’s energy exports are projected to increase.
'New kid on the block' finds source of COVID-19 infections within hours
By Mary Ward
December 9, 2020 — 9.00pm
The source of coronavirus infections could be uncovered within four hours using a new genome sequencing strategy developed by Sydney researchers.
Collaborating with NSW Health Pathology, researchers at the Garvan Institute of Medical Research and UNSW's Kirby Institute have adapted an existing sequencing technology to trace coronavirus infections more quickly.
The technology, known as Nanopore, was used last week to determine within a day that a cleaner at a quarantine hotel had caught an overseas variant of the virus. Previously, genome sequencing of an infection has taken two to three days.
"If you want to know what the whole sequence of the virus is you will need to wait a couple of days, but if you just want to know where it sits with other viruses in the world, you can have that same day or even within a few hours," said Professor Bill Rawlinson, senior medical virologist at NSW Health Pathology’s Prince of Wales lab.
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Pandemic exposes global fault lines - and how Australia rose above them
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editor
December 11, 2020 — 6.55pm
Nine months ago, officials in Canberra were poring over geospatial maps of Australia. They were identifying every major cold storage facility and ice-skating rink. All indications were that the hospitals and morgues would soon be overflowing. The Home Affairs officials were looking to secure places to stack the corpses.
About the same time, police chiefs convened to plan for the possibilities of a breakdown in social order and outbreaks of civil unrest, a fact that Peter Dutton hinted at publicly this week.
Instead of the official projection of a worst-case scenario of 150,000 dead, Australia has suffered 908 deaths in the pandemic to date. Every country, every state faced the same fateful moment of awesome responsibility and awful choice. The pandemic struck the countries of the world like an avenging angel, wreaking havoc on the unready and the uncaring, the slothful and the prideful, and re-ordered the world.
After an uncertain start, Australia ultimately made the right choices. Its leaders, yes, but also its people. The pandemic was a severe test of leadership, and of nation-state capability, but also of social cohesion and public culture. The whole of the people had to accept some personal inconvenience for the common good. In successful countries they did; in failed ones they did not.
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Climate Change
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Australia on track to meet 2030 climate target: Taylor
Mark Ludlow and Phillip Coorey
Dec 10, 2020 – 12.00am
Australia needs to reduce its carbon emissions by only 56 million tonnes to reach it 2030 international climate targets, clearing the way for the Morrison government to scrap the use of Kyoto credits from previous agreements.
The emission projections to be released by federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor on Thursday show Australia is on track to beat its commitment to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
If previous "carry-over credits" (or over-achievement from previous agreements) of 459 million tonnes are included in the total, Australia would beat the 2030 climate target by 403 million tonnes.
But pressure from the global community about Australia using the Kyoto credits, which some countries believe are not in the spirit of the Paris agreement, has raised the likely prospect the Morrison government will ditch the practice.
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Taking climate action doesn't destroy jobs – they depend on it
Jessica Irvine
Economics writer
December 10, 2020 — 12.00am
Fourteen years ago today, John Howard announced his prime ministerial task group to investigate the appropriate design of an emissions trading scheme for Australia.
Just six days before, a teary Kim Beazley had bid farewell to the nation as Labor leader, deposed by the dynamic duo of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.
Rudd would also commission esteemed economist Ross Garnaut to advise Labor on appropriate climate action.
During the 2007 election campaign, both Howard and Rudd took proposals to establish an ETS to the Australian people – a moment of bipartisanship in climate policy that has not been seen since.
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Every country must declare a state of 'climate emergency', UN chief tells world leaders
By Bevan Shields
December 13, 2020 — 6.11am
London: The leader of a low-lying nation at risk from global warming has suggested major emitters would go close to committing "climate genocide" if they do not do more to cut emissions.
Mia Mottley, the Prime Minister of Barbados, made the claim during a virtual summit in which United Nations secretary-general António Guterres urged all countries to declare a "climate emergency" only to be revoked should carbon neutrality be achieved by mid-century.
World leaders will share the spotlight at a global climate summit tonight and Prime Minister Scott Morrison will not be among them.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison was blocked from speaking at the event held overnight Sunday following a behind-the-scenes international tussle over whether Australia's climate change policies were ambitious enough to warrant a slot.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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There are no entries for this week but there were many interesting hearings at the Disability RC.
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National Budget Issues.
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The secret sauce missing from Morrison’s recovery recipe
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
December 6, 2020 — 11.45pm
According to Reserve Bank deputy governor Dr Guy Debelle, a big lesson from the global financial crisis was “be careful of removing the stimulus too early”. Good point, and one that could yet bring Scott Morrison and his nascent economic recovery unstuck. But there’s something that’s even more likely to be his – and our – undoing.
Debelle was referring to the way the British and other Europeans, having borrowed heavily to bail out their banks and stimulate a recovery in the real economy, took fright at their mountain of debt and, before the recovery had got established, undercut it by slashing government spending. The consequences – contributing to more than a decade of weak growth - are hardly to be recommended.
The Yanks have been doing something similar this time round, with the Republican-controlled Senate agreeing to a huge initial stimulus package but, with the nation caught in a ferocious second round of the pandemic, having so far steadfastly refused a second package.
It almost seems a design flaw of conservative governments always to be tempted to pull the plug too early.
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Victoria, NSW lose AAA credit rating as S&P downgrades over weaker outlook and debt burdens
Victoria and NSW have lost their prized AAA credit ratings, with ratings agency S&P Global downgrading both states on Monday in moves that put a cloud over the federal government’s own AAA rating.
S&P Global cut its long-term rating on Victoria by two notches to “AA/Stable” from “AAA/Watch Negative” citing a weaker fiscal outlook. The prolonged lockdown in the state due to two coronavirus outbreaks this year has led to more significant effect on the state’s economy than elsewhere in Australia and the government’s path to fiscal repair would be more challenging, the international ratings agency said.
But in something of a surprise, NSW also lost its coveted AAA rating. The state’s long-term issuer credit rating fell one notch to AA+/Stable from AAA/Negative as the coronavirus pandemic slashed revenue projections and fueled public spending on NSW’s large infrastructure program. S&P said NSW would post historically large operating and after capital-account deficits this fiscal year, pushing debt sharply higher even if prospective asset sales eventuate.
The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that NSW’s budgetary performance will improve during the next few years as the economy climbs out of a Covid-19-induced recessionBut new borrowings will see NSW’s debt rise substantially to levels consistent with AA+ rated peers.
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The ratings’ agency religion may be dead. But there are still lessons
By Shane Wright
December 7, 2020 — 4.42pm
A downgrade in the credit rating of a government would once be greeted with fiscal self-flagellation of near religious intensity.
Warnings of high levels of debt, sky-rocketing interest bills and unsustainable levels of spending were the commandments of the three main credit agencies. Federal and state treasurers were given these warnings on pieces of stone, weighing upon all their decisions.
But that was before a time when a third of global government interest rates were negative. When people could go to a restaurant without having to spritz their hand in sanitiser before the appetiser.
S&P Global’s decision to reduce its rating on NSW (to AA+) and Victoria (down two notches to AA) makes more sense in a world before COVID-19.
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Beijing extends beef ban to Meramist during final sitting week
China has broadened its attack on Australia’s $2.7b beef export trade, suspending a sixth supplier as the Morrison government was poised to pass foreign relations legislation that has angered Beijing.
China’s General Administration of Customs late on Monday said it had suspended imports from Meramist, a Queensland-based abattoir.
The latest beef ban was announced in a brief notice on China’s Customs website.
No reason for the ban was given, inviting speculation it was linked to the Morrison government’s expected passage this week of its Foreign Relations Bill.
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We're having trouble learning to live without inflation
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
December 8, 2020 — 11.55pm
When I became an economic journalist in the early 1970s, the big economic problem was high and rising inflation. The rate of increase in consumer prices briefly touched 17 per cent a year under the Whitlam government, and averaged about 10 per cent a year throughout the decade.
It never crossed my mind then that one day the rise in prices would slow to a trickle – they rose by 0.7 per cent over the year to September – and I certainly never imagined that, if it ever did happen, people would have so much trouble living in a largely inflation-free world.
What? Why would anyone ever object to prices rising at a snail’s pace? Well, of course, no one does. Nor do you see many borrowers objecting to a fall in interest rates.
For savers, however, it’s a different story. Last month, when Reserve Bank governor Dr Philip Lowe announced what’s likely to be the last of many cuts in the official interest rate – it’s a bit hard to go lower than 0.1 per cent – there were bitter complaints from the retired.
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Consumer confidence hits 10-year high: Westpac-Melbourne
Consumer confidence surged again in December to reach a decade high, as Victoria’s reopening added further impetus to a rebound in sentiment that has far outpaced previous recessions.
Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s monthly confidence index jumped 4.1 per cent to 112 points, according to the latest survey, as households were buoyed by news the economy grew strongly over the three months to September and following a strong of positive news around a vaccine becoming available early next year.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said “after only eight months the evidence seems clear that sentiment has fully recovered from the COVID recession”.
The latest reading of consumer sentiment comes a day after NAB”s survey showed businesses were at their most confident since the start of 2018 – again, as Victoria’s reopening led to a “snapback” in the mood among the state’s corporate community.
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Government interest rate goes negative in $550m Treasury note sale
By Shane Wright
December 10, 2020 — 11.48am
Australia has joined the world of negative interest rates with investors buying $550 million of federal government debt at minus 0.01 per cent.
The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM), which oversees the federal government's debt sales, confirmed on Thursday the move into negative rate territory.
About a third of all government debt globally is currently being sold at negative rates but until today investors in Australian debt expected to get at least a small return on their investment.
The AOFM had offered investors $1.5 billion in Treasury notes to be repaid in March next year.
There were 58 bids in total for the debt worth a combined $8.2 billion with the highest bid 0.07 per cent. The lowest was the minus 0.01 per cent.
The more bids there are, the lower the eventual interest rate on the debt.
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Plunging US dollar has wide ramifications for Australia and the world
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
December 9, 2020 — 11.59am
The value of the US dollar has plunged this year and there are forecasts of an even bigger decline in 2021. That’s not good news for Australian exporters, already battered by the intensifying tensions with China and its assault on Australian products.
Against the basket of currencies of its major trading partners the US dollar has tumbled more than 11 per cent since the severity of the pandemic and its economic implications were first appreciated by financial markets in March.
The dollar’s traditional status as a safe haven saw its value spike in March but it very quickly went into a downward spiral.
The shockwaves from the pandemic also slammed the Australian dollar, which plunged to a low of just above US55 cents on March 19, plumbing levels last seen nearly two decades ago. Subsequently, however, the Australian dollar has soared to more than US74 cents, its highest levels in more than two years.
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Covid’s budget hole: $50bn deficit after 10 years, says the PBO
COVID-19’s “profound impact” on the Australia’s fiscal position will leave the country with a federal deficit over $50bn by the end of the decade, while gross government debt will climb over most of the coming ten years, according to the parliamentary budget watchdog’s annual medium term fiscal outlook.
The October 6 budget forecast the Commonwealth’s underlying cash balance to be the biggest deficit since 1971, at $214 billion, or 11 per cent of GDP.
In its latest outlook, the Parliamentary Budget Office projects that the fiscal position will improve over the coming decade, but that there will still be a “significant” underlying cash deficit of $51 billion, or 1.6 per cent of GDP, in 2030-31. Ahead of the federal government’s mid-year economic and fiscal update next Thursday, the PBO’s outlook in 2019 predicted a balanced budget towards the end of this decade.
“This deficit reflects a combination of lower receipts and higher payments that will endure across the medium term,” the report said.
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Health Issues.
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Alcohol guide critics are misguided, says NHMRC
The National Health and Medical Research Council has defended its new guidelines on alcohol consumption, rejecting criticism from the alcohol industry that health experts were on a “last-ditch nanny state crusade”.
In draft guidelines due to come into effect this month, the NHMRC is recommending that adults drink no more than 10 standard drinks per week, or a maximum of four in one day.
The alcohol industry’s peak lobby group, Alcohol Beverages Australia, unleashed a fresh assault on the recommendations on Monday, describing them as lacking evidence. The organisation accused the NHMRC of trying to emulate the same zero-tolerance approach to alcohol as had been employed regarding tobacco.
“The rate of alcohol consumption has been coming down for years, so you have to wonder whether this is some last-ditch nanny state crusade to treat all alcohol consumption as life-threatening,” ABA chief executive Andrew Wilsmore said.
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Turf war: Pharmacists will deliver COVID-19 vaccine despite GP concerns
By Rachel Clun
December 9, 2020 — 5.00am
Pharmacists will be able to administer COVID-19 vaccinations when the wider immunisation program begins in mid-2021, but doctor groups believe pharmacies should be excluded because they're retailers who also sell products.
Associate Professor Chris Freeman, chief executive of Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, said it makes sense to include pharmacists as they were "one of the more accessible healthcare professions across the country".
"Pharmacists have got the skills, capability and competency," he said.
The Therapeutic Goods Administration expects at least one vaccine will be approved by January ahead of an initial roll-out in March to three priority groups including healthcare workers and the elderly.
Guided by Australia's COVID-19 vaccination policy, pharmacists will be part of the vaccination program for the broader population later in the year, a Department of Health spokesman said.
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Same but different: push to switch drugs
Doctors are being urged to switch to prescribing “biosimilar” versions of expensive designer drugs, in a move that is set to slash hundreds of millions of dollars in costs to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.
Eight of the top 10 most expensive drugs to the PBS are precision-based medicines known as biologics, used to treat some cancers and auto-immune diseases, as well as diabetes and other chronic conditions. There’s now a push for doctors to prescribe and pharmacists to dispense biosimilar versions of these drugs, which are a fraction of the cost.
Biologics are created by biologic processes, as distinct from medicines that are chemically synthesised. They are being increasingly prescribed by doctors, but they are expensive, and represent the fastest-growing segment of PBS expenditure.
In 2018-19, eight of the 10 most expensive PBS medicines were biological medicines, costing the federal government over $1.8bn.
Biosimilar medicines are a highly similar version of an original brand biologic, with no meaningful clinical differences.
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CSL-UQ COVID-19 vaccine trial abandoned over false positive HIV tests
Dec 11, 2020 – 8.47am
A leading Australian coronavirus vaccine trial has been abruptly abandoned by the federal government after participants returned false positive results in HIV tests.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Health Minister Greg Hunt confirmed the vaccine trial by the University of Queensland and Australian biotech giant CSL has been stopped, despite there being no risk of the jab causing HIV.
The move could still see vaccinations in Australia earlier than planned, because the UQ and CSL drug was more complicated than the early AstraZeneca already being used in Britain.
In a statement to the stock exchange on Friday morning, CSL said the trials had been halted, due to the generation of antibodies directed towards the “molecular clamp” component of the vaccine.
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CSL turns focus to Oxford vaccine, says 'low likelihood' of making Pfizer product
By Emma Koehn
Updated December 11, 2020 — 10.33amfirst published at 7.58am
Biotechnology giant CSL is now firmly focused on producing the University of Oxford's coronavirus vaccine in Australia after shelving the Univeristy of Queensland vaccine project, while the company says it is unlikely to be able to quickly tool up facilities to make Pfizer's vaccine onshore.
As reported by this masthead on Friday, a billion-dollar deal made by the Morrison government for 51 million doses of the UQ vaccine has been abruptly terminated and CSL will abandon further clinical trials of the product, known as v451.
In a statement to the ASX this morning, the $137 billion blood plasma giant said that while the vaccine candidate was safe, data from the phase 1 study led to the conclusion that "significant changes would be needed to HIV testing procedures in the healthcare setting to accommodate the rollout of this vaccine."
The University of Queensland commenced its phase 1 study of the vaccine, using what is known as "molecular clamp" technology, in July.
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Medical science needs to step up and fight anti-vaxxers with facts
As Covid vaccines are rolled out around the world, the anti-vaccination movement is about to make big, scary noises that can render immunisation programs useless.
On Tuesday, 90-year-old UK grandmother Margaret Keenan became the first patient outside a clinical trial to receive the COVID-19 vaccine developed by US based pharmaceutical company, Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech.
Later that day, an 81-year-old with the impressive name of William Shakespeare received the first of his two jabs. Enter stage left a million puns in the media which amounted to much ado about nothing. Sorry.
If we believe those at the delusional end of the anti-vaccination movement, Bill Gates is now operating both Keenan and Shakespeare by a complex system of pulleys and levers. The pair and others who have had their first COVID-19 jabs (two are required per person 14 days apart) may stumble off at any time to download Microsoft Teams which if my experience is anything to go by, is the real crime here.
The founder of Microsoft is one of the targets for the anti-vaccination movement because the Gates Foundation spends a lot of money inoculating children and adults around the world from preventable diseases. The usual paranoid gibbering accuses Gates and others, including Big Pharma and the deep state, of a raft of crimes including mind control and increasing rates of Autism Spectrum Disorder, all of which have no basis in fact. None.
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CSL, University of Queensland coronavirus vaccine trials halted
CSL and University of Queensland researchers knew of the potential for false HIV positives in the COVID-19 vaccine they were developing - months before the Morrison government bought 50 million doses - thinking it was a “manageable risk”.
But what it didn’t expect was for those false positive tests to show up in all 216 trial participants for the vaccine - a move that threatened to undermine the global COVID-19 vaccine effort.
The federal government has now terminated its orders for the CSL and University of Queensland vaccine - which were part of a $1.7bn deal to secure four types of coronavirus vaccine to protect Australians - fearing it would erode public confidence in all coronavirus vaccines.
CSL and the University of Queensland’s vaccine used technology known as a molecular clamp, rather than a live virus, which used two fragments of a protein found in HIV.
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International Issues.
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'Starting to see the cracks': The US economy needs more than a $US900b plan to fix it
By Jim Tankersley and Ben Casselman
December 7, 2020 — 10.44am
The economic recovery, slowing for months, is in danger of going into reverse. That's why a growing list of economists, business lobbyists and other advocacy groups are urging lawmakers to rally around the $US908 billion ($1.22 trillion) aid package currently gaining bipartisan support in Congress.
A plan of that size would fall short of doing everything that economists argue Congress should do to help workers and businesses during the coronavirus pandemic. But they said that if lawmakers could get the details right, Congress should do it anyway.
"It's within the range where you could argue it does enough good that it would be worth taking it," said William E. Spriggs, a Howard University economist who served in the Labor Department under President Barack Obama. "But it leaves a tonne on the table, and still leaves us with a big problem going forward."
The $US908 billion compromise is not even a legislative proposal yet. It is a bipartisan framework, assembled by a group of senators led by Republican Susan Collins, and Democrat Joe Manchin. Many of its details are still being negotiated, including how the government ought to distribute more aid to small businesses.
Once the bill is complete, its success is not assured: Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, has stopped short of endorsing it, and so has President Donald Trump, who would need to sign any legislation approved in the lame-duck congressional session. But Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California has backed it as a starting point for renewed negotiations, and President-elect Joe Biden said on Friday (US time) that he was "encouraged" by the effort.
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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/abenomics-shows-the-limits-of-spraying-easy-money-20201206-p56l2y
Abenomics shows the limits of spraying easy money
The biggest successes of Abenomics were the micro reforms that it brought, not the unfocussed stimulus. There is an important lesson in this.
Robert Tipp Contributor
Dec 7, 2020 – 1.20pm
Before COVID-19 and even more so during the pandemic, efforts in developed market countries to boost growth and target rises in inflation have turned into a torrent of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Attempts at structural economic reforms, such as Europe’s recent joint fiscal recovery plan, have been more an exception than the rule.
But broad-brush stimulus policies will, at best, return the world to the low growth and low inflation that existed before the pandemic. And they may sow the seeds of future instability by creating asset bubbles, encouraging more debt in what is already a heavily indebted global economy, continuing the boom-bust cycle and adding to rising inequality.
Shinzo Abe’s handover to Yoshihide Suga as Japan’s Prime Minister is a chance to look at the lessons of the Japanese economic strategy that bears the former prime minister's name, and its targeted approach to tackling an ageing nation with yawning government deficits.
Even before Abenomics, there was plenty to learn from Japan. First, demographically older societies don’t seem to end up with a shortage of workers that precipitates a wage-price inflationary spiral.
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NATO boss says China challenge too great for US alone
By Latika Bourke
December 8, 2020 — 6.43am
London: NATO is increasing cooperation with Australia, Japan and South Korea as the trans-Atlantic security alliance prepares for China's rise in the 21st Century.
The move reflects the reality that no single country can combat China on its own, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Stoltenberg reminded an audience at a virtual event for Politico that NATO was formed to defend democratic values which he said China did not share.
The rising nation's authoritarianism is evident in its crackdown on Hong Kong's autonomy and Beijing's treatment of minorities - a reference to the 1 million Uighur Muslims estimated to be detained in Chinese camps in Xinjiang province.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/europe-is-right-to-risk-a-double-no-deal-20201208-p56lkz
Europe is right to risk a double ‘no deal’
If compromises are not found soon, the EU could soon be looking at a double 'no deal' — with the British, and with the Poles and Hungarians. Better to risk this than two bad deals.
Gideon Rachman Columnist
Dec 8, 2020 – 11.47am
The proposed agenda for a summit of EU leaders later this week presents a picture of an orderly world. There are soothing words on COVID-19, climate change and the US presidential election.
Left off the agenda are the two elephants that will be clattering around outside the conference chamber: Brexit, and a confrontation with Poland and Hungary over the rule of law.
But the reality is that, if compromises are not found soon, the EU could soon be looking at a double “no deal” – with the British, and with the Poles and Hungarians. That would mean a breakdown in trading relations with the UK from January 1 – leading to the imposition of tariff barriers, long queues of lorries at the borders and possible confrontations between fishing fleets.
The consequences of no deal with Poland and Hungary would be that the EU fails to agree a budget for the first time in decades – leading to a disruption in financial flows and a stand-off with Warsaw and Budapest that could conceivably culminate in two further departures from the EU.
No sane EU leader would happily embrace these outcomes. So why are EU leaders prepared to run the risk? The preferred narratives in London, Warsaw and Budapest are that arrogant European bureaucrats, spurred on by the French, are trying to push around the three sovereign nations.
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China's record November will further unsettle Australia and the US
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
December 8, 2020 — 11.58am
When you look at its economic numbers, China’s having a good pandemic. The boom in demand for personal protective equipment and the impact of lockdowns on purchases of appliances and electronics has produced a surge in China’s exports and a record monthly trade surplus.
The export boom threatens to only add to the existing trade tensions with the US, with exports up a massive 46 per cent in November against the same month in 2019. China is falling ever further behind on its pledge to buy more US products under the "Phase One" trade deal with the US that it signed, under duress, in January.
The November trade numbers also reflect the first signs of the deteriorating relationship between Australia and China.
China has imposed a range of trade sanctions on a growing list of Australian exports in response to the Morrison government’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus, its commentary on China’s treatment of the Uighurs and Hong Kong, its banning of Huawei from 5G rollouts and the blocking of a number of proposed acquisitions by Chinese companies.
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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/the-rise-of-china-s-internet-celebrity-diplomats-20201209-p56lvu
The rise of China's 'internet celebrity diplomats'
Zhao Lijian's career been propelled by his loyal following on Chinese social media, where he is known as an “internet celebrity diplomat”.
Christian Shepherd
Dec 9, 2020 – 9.42am
Beijing | Zhao Lijian thrives on controversy. Aggressive promotion of China’s interests is expected for a foreign ministry spokesperson, but Zhao has pioneered an extreme approach by becoming a populist provocateur who owes his career to a willingness to shock, needle and troll Beijing’s critics on Twitter.
For Beijing, he has crystallised a model for diplomacy with a jagged edge and driven the shift away from an older generation of more conservative and restrained engagement, analysts said.
The diplomatic furore that Zhao set off last week, when he tweeted a computer-generated image of an Australian soldier holding a bloody knife to the throat of an Afghan child, was the latest in a string of incendiary incidents that delight Chinese nationalists.
In a sign of acceptance of Zhao’s tactics, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank that reports to China’s State Council, in May released a series of strategy documents on the need to “strengthen China’s ability to fight for international public opinion”.
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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/what-bidenomics-means-for-australia-20201210-p56m7z
What Bidenomics means for Australia
Monetary policy differences with the US could push the Australian dollar higher and hold back the recovery. But the biggest risk is being isolated from Joe Biden on climate change.
Ross Garnaut Contributor
Dec 11, 2020 – 12.00am
The United States failed the COVID-19 exam, but is set to do better in the post-pandemic recovery from recession. We will learn over a few years whether rapid early growth is followed by sustained prosperity or inflationary instability.
The pandemic precipitated the sharpest reduction in global economic activity and trade that the world economy has ever seen. This led to the fastest and largest global fiscal expansion ever. Global monetary policy was not eased as much because interest rates were already at record lows and central bank balance sheets at record highs.
From late January, the influence of Trump’s medical science denial recedes into history. This and effective vaccines will see disruption from the disease recede through 2021.
The US has abandoned fiscal and monetary constraint. Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer’s modelling presented to the Melbourne Economic Forum suggests that nearly all of the employment and quarterly output lost in 2020 will be regained by the end of 2021, even if there is no fiscal expansion beyond that legislated in the early months of the pandemic.
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On record day for COVID-19 deaths, Trump falsely says at packed party he will 'win this election'
By Timothy Bella
December 11, 2020 — 2.10am
At the end of the United States' deadliest day so far during the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump emerged at an indoor Hanukkah party to speak with a crowd mostly wearing masks but not adhering to social distancing in the East Room at the White House.
Then, the President falsely said again that he won the election, boasting that a "miracle" was coming in the form of long-shot legal efforts that have been repeatedly defeated in multiple states.
At a packed White House Hanukkah party, US President Donald Trump falsely told his guests that he won the US presidential election.
"All I ask for is people with wisdom and with courage, that's all," Trump told the crowd on Wednesday night, according to a video of the event shared by Jewish Insider's Jacob Kornbluh, "because if certain very important people, if they have wisdom and if they have courage, we're going to win this election in a landslide."
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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/xi-is-waging-more-than-a-trade-war-20201211-p56mmo
Xi is waging more than a trade war
There is no real trade dispute with China. Trade is just leverage in a much wider battle over sovereignty.
Ross Babbage Contributor
Dec 11, 2020 – 11.38am
Current tensions between Australia and the Chinese regime are often described as a trade war. It is much more than that. What we are actually seeing is a far-reaching sovereignty war.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using a vast arsenal to coerce Australian governments to cede key parts of our political independence. Trade pressure is just part of a larger offensive.
This type of coercion has been a feature of the CCP’s campaigns to defeat domestic and international opponents for over a century.
They used it during the long-running struggles against the nationalists and the imperial Japanese Army in the 1920s, 30s and 40s and in every campaign since, including their current struggles against Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia in the South China Sea, with Japan over the Senkaku Islands and with Taiwan over its sovereign status.
In every case the CCP has launched sophisticated operations to penetrate, divide, corrupt, weaken and incapacitate their opponents and to force their collapse or capitulation. The Chinese see these forms of comprehensive coercion as a type of warfare because their goals are the same as violent combat – to overwhelm opponents and deny them their independence.
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Supreme justice: Trump's election challenges flame out in defeat
By Matthew Knott
December 12, 2020 — 1.00pm
Washington: The US election is over - again.
More than a month since it became clear that Joe Biden had denied Donald Trump a second term, the US Supreme Court on Saturday (AEDT) shot down a brazen bid by Trump and his Republican allies to overturn the election results.
With the Electoral College to meet on Tuesday (AEDT) to certify Biden as the winner of the election, it's clear that Trump has exhausted all possibilities of reversing the election outcome through the courts.
His bid to sue his way to a second term is - to quote Tony Abbott - dead, buried and cremated.
Trump and his allies have now lost over 50 post-election lawsuits: a staggeringly unsuccessful track record that reflects how flimsy - and often entirely confected - their complaints about election fraud and other supposed irregularities have been.
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Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine gets OK from FDA advisers in US
By Manas Mishra and Julie Steenhuysen
December 11, 2020 — 10.12am
Washington: A panel of outside advisers to the US Food and Drug Administration on Thursday, local time, voted overwhelmingly to endorse emergency use of Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine, paving the way for the agency to authorise the shot for a nation that has lost more than 285,000 lives to COVID-19.
The FDA is widely expected to authorise the vaccine, developed with German partner BioNTech SE, for emergency use in the United States within days.
The committee voted 17-4 that the known benefits of the vaccine outweighed the risks of taking the shot for individuals 16 and older, with 1 member of the panel abstaining.
The news comes as biotech giant CSL said it will shelve development of the University of Queensland coronavirus vaccine after participants in the phase 1 trial returned false-positive HIV test results.
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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/us-supreme-court-deals-killer-blow-to-trump-20201212-p56myz
US Supreme Court deals killer blow to Trump
Lawrence Hurley
Dec 12, 2020 – 9.08pm
Washington DC | The US Supreme Court on Friday rejected a long-shot lawsuit by Texas and backed by President Donald Trump seeking to throw out voting results in four states, dealing him a likely fatal blow in his quest to undo his election loss to President-elect Joe Biden.
The decision allows the US Electoral College to press ahead with a meeting on Monday, where it is expected to formally cast its votes and make Biden's victory official.
Biden, a Democrat, has amassed 306 votes to Trump's 232 in the state-by-state Electoral College, which allots votes to all 50 states and the District of Columbia based on population.
The four states in question - Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - contributed a combined 62 votes to Biden's total. To win the White House, 270 votes are needed.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
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