I have the distinct feeling the NSW public – and possibly others – are being ‘Mushroomed’ by various Governments on COVID statistics – maybe because they are presently getting a lot wrong!
I found this a lesson in contrasts.
Plan for rapid test results as Sutton’s Omicron health advice is revealed
By Paul Sakkal, Aisha Dow and Mary Ward
The Age has confirmed existing government IT infrastructure that allows people to create unique codes to store their PCR test results online is likely to be used to allow people to upload their rapid test results, as use of at-home tests overtakes the PCR system.
Detail of the testing overhaul was confirmed following the release of a report under the state’s new pandemic laws showing that Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton urged the Andrews government to close dance floors, implement density caps in hospitality, require people attending major events to have a negative rapid tested before entry and restrict access to hospitals and aged care homes.
Professor Sutton also requested that his public health team gain control over the public health management of events with more than 5000 people, rather than the current threshold of 30,000.
He said his advice, dated December 23, was designed to avoid a worst-case scenario of more than 25,000 cases per day in Victoria, as modelled by the Burnet Institute.
“[They] are the most important measures in the short term, to reduce the probability that more restrictive measures will be required to manage Omicron morbidity,” Professor Sutton’s recommendations to Health Minister Martin Foley state, along with an acknowledgement the new rules could dent confidence in the administration of public health.
Of the additional health measures recommended by Professor Sutton to halt the spread of Omicron, only the introduction of an indoor mask mandate was accepted by Mr Foley, who argued further changes to the rules might diminish the government’s social licence to manage the pandemic and “likely contribute to community fatigue and distress”. Under the state’s new pandemic legislation, the health minister makes decisions on public health measures after considering their impact on society more broadly.
The document outlining Professor Sutton’s advice, required to be published under the state’s new pandemic laws, revealed Burnet Institute modelling projections of more than 25,000 cases a day in a worst-case scenario for Victoria. The unpublished modelling shows this outcome could occur if Omicron turned out to be highly infectious, vaccines did little to stop the variant’s spread and if public health interventions were not taken or enacted early enough.
“While it is plausible that these projections might not come to pass, and it is appropriate not to overreact, it is equally plausible that they might come to pass, and it would be reckless to ignore them entirely,” Professor Sutton’s advice states.
In Victoria, cases have been surging dramatically in those aged in their 20s and 30s, and many respected epidemiologists have been calling for the closure of nightclubs, considering them too big a spreading risk.
Doctor and infectious diseases epidemiologist Paul Van Buynder said: “We are all really worried about case numbers four or five days after New Year’s Eve.”
“When you see some of these nightclubs that look like one giant mosh pit with everybody with their arms in the air … yelling at the top of their voices, they’re just total transmission sites.”
More than 32,000 COVID-19 infections were reported in Australia on Friday, with the highly infectious Omicron variant driving record daily cases across all states bar Western Australia. More than 1200 COVID-19 patients are in hospital in NSW and Victoria, an increase of about 60 per cent in a week.
Epidemiologists and public health officials say the actual number of COVID-19 cases in the community is likely to be significantly higher than reported because some returning positive rapid tests are bypassing swamped state testing sites. More than a dozen Victorian sites were closed on Friday because of snaking queues or extreme heat.
Victoria’s COVID-19 response commander, Jeroen Weimar, confirmed on Friday that officials were exploring ways to allow the public to upload the result of their rapid antigen tests. “We’re working on some options at the moment. We’ll make some announcements in the coming days,” he said.
Rapid tests are much cheaper but also less sensitive than PCR tests, meaning they occasionally produce false negatives. Those approved for use in Australia must identify at least 80 per cent of PCR-confirmed cases, and the rate of error diminishes significantly if at-home tests are completed over consecutive days, according to University of Melbourne epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely.
“So the marginal gain of going and confirming that result with a PCR is minimal,” he said.
In the UK, the public is encouraged to report the result of their rapid tests to the National Health Service no matter the result, using a QR code or ID number printed on the test.
NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said there were no plans to introduce a reporting system for rapid antigen tests in her state.
A month ago, the positivity rate from PCR testing was 2 per cent in Victoria and just 0.3 per cent in NSW. On Friday it was close to 9 per cent in Victoria and more than 14 per cent in NSW from 66,774 and 148,410 tests conducted respectively.
Much more here:
From this two contrasts arise.
1. Victoria actually wants to know what is going on with cases and NSW really doesn’t care and is avoiding the truth on cases where it can.
2. Victoria is publishing the Health Advice while in NSW we have no real idea what Dr Kerry Chant is telling the NSW Government.
I find this willful obfuscation very disturbing indeed but am somewhat reassured that if things in NSW are off the rails with underestimates of cases that – with a 1-2 week delay – we will know what matters from the hospitalisation and ICU figures.
It is nice to see simple technology being deployed in Victoria to try and remedy the testing gaps.
As of today these are really on the rise so while cases have dropped from 22,547 to 18,278 in the last 2 days the hospital figures have gone from 832 to 1066 over the same 2 days and up from about 450 a week ago and a couple of hundred just 2 weeks ago! The ICU figures are similar.
It is also rather ominous that the test positivity rate has reached 20% up from under 2% just 2 weeks ago!
So why is NSW playing these games – it can only be they are hoping for a miracle to show their ‘freedom’ first ideology is correct.
The Federal Government is also really shonky suggesting “personal responsibility” while not having the rapid antigen tests available to allow people to do that.
I really think many Government(s) have lost control – or given up – and I do fear we may all suffer with the choices some are making. Just why won''t the politicians play straight with us?
We also need to remember that what is happening is a deliberate policy choice to potentially inflict extra suffering with long-covid, hospital stays and maybe deaths.
BTW - don't forget www.covidbaseau.com for all you Australian COVID data needs!
What do you think about how we are being yreated data wise?
David.
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