Now Here Is A Real Blast From The Past That Shows Knowing The Future Is Tricky.

This appeared a few days ago.

https://www.afr.com/technology/how-the-afr-called-the-death-of-the-home-computer-in-1985-we-were-wrong-20220117-p59oyn

The home computer is dead, we said in 1985. Oops

As part of our 70th anniversary, the Financial Review is reproducing classic stories. On March 21, 1985, David Noble debunked what became one of the biggest selling home items ever: the home computer.

Jan 18, 2022 – 5.39pm

----- Begin 1985 article by David Nole

“The surprise announcement by IBM yesterday that it will stop making its PCnr next month has confirmed that the home will never be a viable market for computers, except for specialist applications.

The announcement comes as US high technology stocks lose their gloss, several companies in America announce slow-downs in projected sales, and share prices drop across the board.

IBM’s decision is not expected to affect its revenue greatly, but it could be one of the final nails in the coffin of a market which never grew to meet industry analysts’ original high expectations.

And IBM’s withdrawal leaves what is left of the market open to Apple and a handful of niche market suppliers.

It is an embarrassing move for a company which rose to dominate the personal computer market in just four years, and follows moves by some leading computer marketing companies to scrap their involvement in the home computer area.

Texas Instruments’ experiment with its TI 99/4A home computer was one of the greatest marketing fiascos the computer industry has ever seen. It cut its losses and pulled out of the market in October 1983 with thousands of units still in stock.

Commodore has announced falling sales for its machines, and Atari is struggling to recover after dismal sales and heavy staff cuts.

While personal computers can take away much of the drudgery of office work, there is little application for them in the home.

Apple has also announced the closure of four plants for a week, the first in the company’s history, as it tries to dilute a bulging inventory. Its Apple II series, as the PCjr’s closest competitor, stands to gain most from IBM’s announcement.

Announced in late 1983, the PCjr was the one IBM personal computer product which did not turn to gold. It was late for the lucrative Christmas market and heavy criticism of the machine’s keyboard forced IBM to replace it with a more conventional one.

Despite the backing of a reputed $US40 million marketing campaign, IBM could not make the product sell, a common situation in a market where any technical failure is likely to taint a machine’s reputation through its lifetime.

While industry analysts, and IBM were hopeful of huge market demand for home computers, recent months have seen a dramatic turnaround in opinion as the market began to falter.

The reality is that while personal computers can take away much of the drudgery of office work, there is little application for them in the home except as an adjunct to business and for computer hobbyists.

The person who cannot balance his cheque book with a calculator and pencil is unlikely to be able to do so on a computer.

There is little advantage in storing recipes on a floppy disk, the average person does not write enough letters to justify the cost and the person who cannot balance his cheque book with a calculator and pencil is unlikely to be able to do so on a computer.

IBM’s announcement came too late to affect trading on US stock exchanges but any impact is likely to become evident today. The company’s shares closed at $US130.50, up $US2.125.

Other high-tech stocks traded well, a stark change from recent weeks when many companies’ shares have plunged in the wake of reduced profit and turnover projections.

Data General Corp and Digital Equipment Corp have also recently warned of a slowing down in orders which has affected their share prices, and Computervision Corp’s stocks also went into a tailspin last week when it announced it expected only to break even in the current quarter.”

----- End 1985 Article.

Just shows how dangerous it is to conclude what will be the state of play 45 years hence.

All this discussion reminded me of the Digital PDP11/03 I used / programmed in the ICU in 1981/2 as I taught myself Fortran and BASIC in my trusty TRS-80!

Not surprisingly I now have 2 or 3 PCs and the odd laptop from HP and Dell who were hardly around then! Needless to say that while the IBM PCjr failed to thrive many others did!

Great memories from a while ago!

David.