October 04, 2018 Edition.
What can one say. Trump went to the UN General Assembly, says he was a great President and got laughed at…fitting I reckon. Simultaneously the #metoo movement seems to be awakening all sorts of interesting issues with a Supreme Court confirmation.
In the UK Brexit gets messier still, if that is possible and Germany and Turkey are trying to play nice again.
The NZ PM gave a speech at the UN – showed us all up I reckon…
In Australia the ABC exploded all over the place and the FSRC said it was all due to greed – who knew?
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Major Issues.
- Updated Sep 23 2018 at 10:52 PM
Are Exchange-Traded Fund flows creating the mother of all opportunities?
A common excuse given by fee-charging active fund managers that have battled to beat their benchmarks has been the ever-rising popularity of exchange-traded funds.
ETFs effectively allow investors to track an index – anything from the S&P 500 to obesity-related stocks – by simply buying a listed security tacking the index or a basket of stocks.
The global market has grown from 580 products totalling $US728 billion of assets to more than 5000 funds with more than $US5.6 trillion of assets.
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- Sep 24 2018 at 9:15 AM
Does your portfolio have the right infrastructure?
by Aidan Geysen
With no shortage of attention-grabbing headlines from the royal commission, an interesting side note from the superannuation round relates to the portfolio implications of some funds being able to hold assets that aren't broadly accessible to other investors.
In particular, infrastructure assets were named as a contributing factor to the performance differentials between some super funds.
While there are certain barriers to investing in unlisted infrastructure assets, such as illiquidity, there are other strategies that could have delivered similar outcomes over the long term which are readily accessible to investors at both the institutional and individual level.
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- Updated Sep 24 2018 at 10:00 AM
Telecommunications could be next for a royal commission as dodgy practices flourish
by Luke Clifton
Recently, I was struck by the story of a young man trying to get his feet back on the ladder and land a job after spending some time unemployed. He was getting by on the basic Newstart Allowance, less than $275 per week, and to ensure he was contactable and could promptly communicate with potential employers, he purchased a budget mobile plan.
Unfortunately, he was – like so many Australians – on a "too-good-to-be-true" plan, where the detail within the fine print led to bill shock through an array of unexpected charges. The expected $25 monthly bill had turned into a $170 horror.
Unable to pay, his plan was eventually cancelled, so he couldn't make, receive or return calls from potential employers.
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- Updated Sep 25 2018 at 12:00 AM
New modelling says Labor franking credits plan would hit super funds up to 9pc
Labor's plan to scrap cash refunds for excess franking credits is facing fresh criticism, with new economic modelling finding it was the equivalent of slashing the balance of the average superannuation fund by up to 9 per cent.
Australian National University economists also found the existing dividend imputation regime boosted retirees' income by 5 to 6 per cent, while also helping underpin demand for Australian shares.
The paper's co-author, Geoff Warren, said the impact of the Opposition's proposed changes had been understated and would amount to a significant hit on nest eggs.
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It is high time that asset-rich baby boomers started paying their way
- 12:00AM September 25, 2018
Understandably, dying is something we don’t like to think about too much. And when you look at how we pay for aged care, it shows.
The torrent of public money sprayed at residential and home care providers — more than $18 billion this year and rising rapidly — isn’t sustainable without crushing increases in income tax on younger generations.
If those generations aren’t resentful yet, just wait until the baby boomer generation — the richest in history — starts turning 80 en masse across the next decade and costs go through the roof. The share of the population aged over 65 is poised to rise from about 15 per cent to 23 per cent, or nine million people, by 2054, according to the intergenerational report.
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- Updated Sep 25 2018 at 11:00 PM
Four late cycle signs put Boston fund giant on alert
In his four-decade career as a fund manager, James Swanson says he has learnt that the most important thing is to "know where you are in the business cycle".
Right now, the strategist at $US450 billion ($620 billion) Boston-based mutual fund MFS Investment Management says the evidence is mounting that we're entering the latter stages of the cycle, thereby making stocks vulnerable to a sharp correction when it does end.
"The signs are showing up with great regularity and you need to think about conservation of capital when they appear," he told The Australian Financial Review in an interview this week.
Mr Swanson, who joined MFS in 1985, admits you can't time cycles, but looking for signs can "give you a sense of how far you are from the waterfall".
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- Sep 26 2018 at 10:25 AM
Warning on REITs as bond spread narrows: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley has cautioned investors about the narrowing advantage Australia's real estate investment trusts have over the 10 year bond yield saying it is better to stick to selective stock picking and not bet on the broader property index.
"The A-REITS look less attractive than 6 months ago," Morgan Stanley analysts John Lee said in a note to clients.
He notes that after outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 by 3 per centage points in the past 6 months and the global REITs by 270 basis points, the A-REITs are now trading on 15.6 times earnings.
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What we do and don't know about politicians and corruption
By Ross Gittins
26 September 2018 — 12:05am
How easy is it for the rich and powerful to buy favourable treatment from our politicians? Honest answer: we just don’t know. What we do know is that we’ve become increasing distrustful of our pollies and doubtful of their honesty.
Polling conducted this year by Griffith University and Transparency International Australia found that 85 per cent of respondents believe at least some federal Members of Parliament are corrupt. This is up 9 points just since 2016. It includes 18 per cent who believe most or all federal politicians are corrupt.
Fully 62 per cent of respondents believe officials or politicians use their positions to benefit themselves or their family, while 56 per cent believe officials or politicians favour businesses and individuals in return for political donations or support.
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Why India is emerging as Australia's natural ally
By Sanjay Bhosale
26 September 2018 — 10:00pm
As simmering tensions continue in the Sino-Australian bilateral relationship, India looms as an increasingly attractive export and investment destination for Australian businesses looking to grow their operations in this Asian century.
This year, India cemented its position as the fastest growing major economy in the world, surpassing China. Since 2015, it has achieved a GDP growth rate of over 7 per cent per year. Its 2018–19 second quarter GDP growth rate was a 15-quarter high of 8.2 per cent (China: 6.7 per cent), raising hopes of 8 per cent annual GDP growth this fiscal year.
With common democratic and judicial systems, and a shared history of Commonwealth, colonisation and cricket, Australia and India are natural allies. But the tremendous potential for bilateral business growth has thus far been hobbled by a lack of political will on both sides of the Indian Ocean.
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- Updated Sep 27 2018 at 6:00 PM
Schroders says shares will get 'smashed' in US recession
by Sarah Turner
The US Federal Reserve has flagged the end of easy money, and that means life is about to get much harder for investors.
That's the view of Schroders portfolio managers Simon Doyle and Simon Stevenson who broadly welcomed the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates and remove "accommodative" to describe monetary policy this week.
But they also said that in an economy at full employment and absorbing the fiscal stimulus from President Donald Trump's tax cuts, central banks would normally raise interest rates much more quickly.
"The US economy is in danger of overheating," Mr Doyle said.
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Debt build-up in the West a worry
- 12:00AM September 28, 2018
Government debt in rich countries is on track to reach World War II levels, but without the war.
The focus on Donald Trump and his trade wars has obfuscated the real elephant in the room — relentless debt accumulation by advanced countries, whose debts as a share of economic output have quadrupled since the 1970s.
The government of the world’s biggest economy, as the accompanying figure shows, now has debts equivalent to more than 100 per cent of US GDP, or the same levels of the early 1940s.
It’s worse in Europe, where the governments’ off-balance sheet liabilities — in essence, promises to pay their citizens’ pensions — are five times as large as the official debt.
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- Sep 28 2018 at 1:05 PM
Sydney housing bubble has deflated, but city is still highly overvalued: UBS
Sydney's housing market has dropped out of bubble territory as government taxes hit the top end and tighter lending puts a brake on price growth, according to UBS.
Most at risk this year is Hong Kong - where a mansion in The Peak neighbourhood could be about to break the world record for the most expensive home ever sold - followed by Munich and Toronto, then Vancouver, Amsterdam, London.
The housing market in Sydney hit bubble-risk territory in 2015 due to buoyant foreign demand, low interest rates and exuberant expectations.
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- Sep 28 2018 at 1:59 PM
The investor's field guide to doomsday prepping
The market correction clock seems to be ticking ever louder. This week the sensible souls who manage Schroders' real return fund celebrated their 10-year anniversary by warning of a market crash.
"The US economy is in danger of overheating," portfolio manager Simon Doyle said.
"If it overheats then things tend to blow up and there will be a recession at some point, probably in the next two years. I'm pretty confident of that. In a recession, risk assets will get absolutely smashed."
That might sound like typical doomsday clickbait peddled by the media. But it's not. For one, as I said, I have spoken with Doyle a number of times and, if anything, come away feeling that I got a lot of worthy insight but little with which I could lead an article. He's not prone to hyperbole.
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The destructive American fad Australia needs to avoid
By Peter Hartcher
29 September 2018 — 12:00am
Politics since World War II has been dominated by the ideological struggle along Marxist economic lines. The working class versus the capitalist class. In the Australian labelling, Labor against Liberal.
That framework is in the process of being overlaid, and even overwhelmed. Politics increasingly is becoming a clash of identities. The US is leading the way, with Europe close behind.
Because there's no American fad too stupid for Australia to ape, we'd better pay attention to what's going on. Australian political parties are starting to flirt with it.
According to the right of politics, it's the left that's guilty of playing identity politics, fomenting the resentment and anger of minorities. In truth, the right plays it just as hard. The difference is that the right foments the resentment and anger of the majority.
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Financial Services Royal Commission Issues.
- Updated Sep 23 2018 at 9:00 PM
Small business blames 'real tightening' in credit on the banking royal commission
by John Kehoe
Small business says it is facing a credit crunch and is blaming the royal commission into financial services for causing nervous banks to slow lending to the self-employed.
The moderation in lending to small firms in recent months appears to be an unintended consequence of anecdotal evidence of questionable bank lending practices uncovered by Kenneth Hayne's inquiry.
The royal commission's interim report is due to be released on Friday.
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- Updated Sep 24 2018 at 11:00 PM
Road to simplicity in financial services paved with complexity
by Chanticleer
A week before the deadline for Kenneth Hayne's interim report on misconduct in financial services it is clear that grandfathered trailing commissions, one of the great rorts of the advice industry, are headed for the chop.
Even the conservative Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia says in its submission to the Hayne inquiry that grandfathered commissions should be outlawed with a one-year sunset clause.
All trailing commissions in place in July 2013 were grandfathered under the Future of Financial Advice reforms with the intention that these commissions be phased out over time. But five years later it would seem the industry is collecting at least $800 million a year.
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- Sep 25 2018 at 2:08 PM
ASIC bank breach report shows banks need quick fix
by Chanticleer
Any bank customer who has marvelled at the speed with which a bank can slap you with a dishonour fee will just hate this tale from the corporate regulator's review into the reporting of significant breaches of financial services laws.
The story concerns a financial services licensee who reported a significant breach relating to reconciliation discrepancies.
The problem occurred for eight years before the institution decided to put the proper resources behind a project to figure out what was going on, and fix it.
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Six years for refunds, that's how low we are on banks' priority list
By Adele Ferguson
26 September 2018 — 12:00am
If there was any lingering doubt where customers rank in the priority list of our biggest banks, a new report from the corporate regulator lays it out bluntly. They're an inconvenient necessity in the process of making profits.
The report Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) released on Tuesday looks at the way financial institutions including AMP, NAB, CBA, Westpac, ANZ and Macquarie, treat their legal breach reporting obligations and the attendant duty to compensate affected customers.
The report shows it takes institutions an average 2145 days - or almost six years – between the first breach and the first compensation payment to be paid to customers.
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Retirees should duck for cover as ASIC puts hybrids in its crosshairs
- 5:59PM September 25, 2018
The range of investments open to private investors in Australia may be scaled back substantially following new legislation introduced in recent days to parliament.
The so-called Target Market legislation which is now before the Senate — could potentially restrict or eliminate a range of current financial products from the market including sharemarket floats and bank hybrids.
Senior bankers and lawyers are now examining the legislation which, if passed, will be enforced by the market regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Fund managers say the law could mean an end for retail investors participating in certain hybrid products.
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- Updated Sep 26 2018 at 6:03 PM
Investors fret over Hayne's 'unconventional' commission
With 48 hours until the release of Hayne's interim report, investors are sweating.
This commission has not been kind to the executives of banks, insurers and wealth management businesses. And justifiably so, given the appalling revelations that have emerged.
Bad headlines are one thing; to some degree shareholders are used to them. After all, bank bashing is something of a national sport.
But the recommendations which ultimately emerge from the royal commission threaten something more serious, something that has eluded previous inquiries: action.
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- Sep 28 2018 at 11:00 PM
Royal commission interim report: Profit nirvana for bankers
Banks have put 'profits before people'
by Chanticleer
Read between the lines of royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne's interim report and you will find that Australia's financial institutions have been enjoying their own version of Shangri-La.
Inhabitants of this mythical paradise in the Tibetan mountains are permanently happy and isolated from the real world.
That perfectly describes the place where our banks have found themselves since the global financial crisis struck a decade ago.
For institutions seeking to maximise profits, Australia has been a virtual nirvana.
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- Updated Sep 28 2018 at 7:07 PM
Royal commission interim report: Hayne asks if wealth 'greed' can be overcome
The $4.6 billion financial advice industry faces a remuneration conundrum, according to Commissioner Kenneth Hayne, as to whether under present settings advisers can ever truly set aside self interest and "greed" to fulfil their duty to clients.
By law, financial advisers are required to act in the best interests of their clients and to provide services "efficiently, fairly and honestly".
Yet a file review by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission earlier this year found that in 75 per cent of cases, advisers prioritised their own interests.
Commissioner Hayne says the results demonstrate how the choice between duty and self-interest is most often resolved in favour of the latter.
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Hayne keeps every weapon open in his armoury against banks
By Jessica Irvine
29 September 2018 — 12:05am
Greed. Dishonesty. Avarice.
Commissioner Kenneth Hayne has pulled absolutely no punches in his diagnosis of the problems that have bedevilled Australia’s finance sector.
But perhaps the biggest shock contained in Friday's interim report is not the vibrancy of Hayne's language, but the extent to which he has chosen to keep at his disposal every possible weapon in the policy reform armoury to fix the sector.
A crackdown on CEO bonuses, the forced structural separation of financial planning businesses and the complete abolition of mortgage broker commissions: everything is still on the table.
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Banks get ready for election attack
By Eryk Bagshaw
30 September 2018 — 12:01am
Community anger, evidence of systemic malpractice and the timing of the banking royal commission's final report have fuelled concerns that both sides of politics will ratchet up attacks on the banks to win over voters as they head into the next election.
Commissioner Kenneth Hayne now has less than six months to deliver his final verdict after handing down his interim report on Friday, just in time for politicians to hit the campaign trail before the election in electorates already white-hot with anger over the revelations.
Labor has already seized upon the interim report as an opportunity to attack the government, signalling an intention to use the Royal Commission's findings to maximum political effect.
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ABC Implosion.
- Sep 24 2018 at 10:06 AM
ABC board sacks chief executive Michelle Guthrie
ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie has been sacked by the board after just two years and four months in the job.
ABC staff were informed by email on Monday morning and the ABC issued a statement that Ms Guthrie had departed.
"The decision follows discussions over several months that concluded when directors resolved that it was not in the best interests of the ABC for Ms Guthrie to continue to lead the organisation," the statement said.
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- Updated Sep 24 2018 at 7:52 PM
How did it come to this at your ABC? Michelle Guthrie axed mid-term
Michelle Guthrie sacked as ABC managing director
It is the season for beheadings. When ABC chairman Justin Milne called Michelle Guthrie to a meeting at 9am on Monday after months of tension with the board, she knew the news couldn't be good.
The ABC board had already asked its managing director to quit a few weeks ago – an invitation Guthrie refused, insisting she was willing to work with the board to address any concerns.
In the end, that wasn't enough for an increasingly unhappy board, with a strong-willed chairman now citing the need for new, fresh leadership with a different style.
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Morrison government suggests ABC chairman Justin Milne should consider his position
By Michael Koziol
27 September 2018 — 9:50am
The Morrison government has stopped short of calling for Justin Milne to resign but is preparing for the embattled ABC chairman to bow to pressure and stand down from the public broadcaster.
Communications Minister Mitch Fifield declined to back Mr Milne on Thursday morning when asked if the chairman should remain in the role, suggesting he should consider his position.
ABC chairman Justin Milne is under pressure after revelations he had asked the former managing director Michelle Guthrie to sack journalists he thought the government didn't like.
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Now Justin Milne has gone, the entire ABC board is exposed and may have to follow him out the door
By John McDuling
27 September 2018 — 11:00am
Justin Milne ran one of Australia's first internet service providers, OzEmail. How the ABC chairman could be so careless in an email, the basic technology the internet enabled, will remain one of the great mysteries of this week's stunning events.
But while Milne has been the focus of much anger, the ABC board's handling of the crisis gripping the public broadcaster deserves serious scrutiny.
We now know the board had in its possession written evidence that Milne had interfered with the ABC's editorial operations - and detailed claims he had done so on more than one occasion.
As Fairfax Media reported earlier this week, the ABC chairman used an email to tell his managing director to sack high-profile presenter Emma Alberici following a complaint from Malcolm Turnbull, the recently deposed prime minister who is also Milne's close friend and one-time chairman at OzEmail.
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'They fricken hate her': Full Emma Alberici email shows Justin Milne was not taken out of context
By Michael Koziol & Jennifer Duke
27 September 2018 — 7:48pm
The full text of an email sent by former ABC chairman Justin Milne about journalist Emma Alberici reveals he wanted the high-profile presenter sacked because she was "sticking it" to the government with a "clear bias".
Mr Milne, who resigned as chairman of the public broadcaster on Thursday, complained in an ABC interview that his email to former managing director Michelle Guthrie was presented "out of context" when Fairfax Media broke the story of his attempt to have Alberici removed.
Justin Milne has been under pressure to step down after it was revealed he had told former managing director Michelle Guthrie to fire journalists who he thought the government did not like.
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- Updated Sep 27 2018 at 11:00 PM
ABC calamity exposes crisis of governance
by Chanticleer
The management and board room implosions at the ABC are further worrying symbols of the fracturing of the key institutions that are meant to serve Australians and underpin a fair and just democratic society.
The sudden sacking of the ABC chief executive Michelle Guthrie and subsequent resignation of chairman Justin Milne amid allegations of attempted editorial interference will exacerbate the crisis of trust in the country's governance frameworks.
In the wake of the ABC scandal, there are good reasons to question the process of appointing "mates" to government bodies, and puts the spotlight on the due diligence involved in appointing senior executives. Also, there must be doubts about the separation of responsibilities between the ABC board and management.
The fracturing of confidence in the ABC's editorial independence is in keeping with the breakdown in governance at leading financial institutions exposed by the Hayne royal commission.
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This is about more than the ABC
By Waleed Aly
27 September 2018 — 1:54pm
“She won’t be going, Peta, I can assure you of that. As I told Tony two hours ago. And in 23 years as a daily metro newspaper editor no COS [chief of staff] or PM has ever made such a suggestion to me about anyone. Even Keating.”
Those are reportedly the words of Chris Mitchell, then editor-in-chief of The Australian. He’s responding to a demand from Peta Credlin – chief of staff to prime minister Tony Abbott at the time – that he sack columnist Niki Savva after a column that incensed Credlin.
In a week where the ABC has been recast as an organisation more concerned with keeping the government happy than with the non-negotiability of journalistic independence, no quote from the past has struck me as more arresting, more germane, more instructive.
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- Updated Sep 28 2018 at 5:21 PM
Michelle Guthrie, Justin Milne drama shows ABC, Coalition are under siege
Kristin Ferguson honoured to accept ABC deputy chair position
by Laura Tingle
Neither organisation would probably like the comparison, but this week has revealed that the Coalition government and the ABC have had a bit more in common than they might think in recent times.
The furore that has surrounded the sacking of the ABC managing director, Michelle Guthrie, and the subsequent resignation of chairman Justin Milne has revealed two organisations that feel under perpetual siege.
The only difference may be the source of the besieging. In the government's case, it has been besieged from inside: its civil war has left all the participants hyper-sensitive to criticism, not so much factionalised as tribalised, and seeing the world even more than ever in terms of those for and against it.
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'You're not invited': ABC scandal lifts the veil on stupid politics
By Jacqueline Maley
30 September 2018 — 12:08am
“You complete moron!” thundered the politician to the journalist. “You are such a moron it’s hard to know where to begin .. you dumb prick … to stand in judgment of me and impugn my character and pretend you’re something more than a third-rate hack ... Don’t think I’m blind to who’s making the bullets you fire ... your judgment will be shown to be completely fucked.”
The politician went on like this for some minutes, before pivoting to anxiety, and then, finally, something close to despair, asking the journalist what he thought should be done to fix the political mess at issue.
The scene is fiction, of course. It comes from The Marmalade Files, a book by Steve Lewis, formerly a high-up News Corp press gallery journalist, and Chris Uhlmann, former ABC political editor, now at Channel Nine.
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Getting to the truth about our most trusted institution
By Michelle Rowland
29 September 2018 — 12:26pm
Australians deserve to know the truth about our most trusted institution, the ABC.
As allegations of Liberal interference at the public broadcaster swirled this week, the UN Secretary-General was saying the world is suffering from a bad case of “trust deficit disorder”.
The breakdown of trust in Australia’s institutions must be addressed as a matter of urgency.
To anyone who says they value democracy, free speech and editorial independence, well, those words are easy to say. The test of your convictions is what you’re prepared to do to defend them.
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National Budget Issues.
Frydenberg must awaken the slumbering Treasury on cost cutting
By Ross Gittins
24 September 2018 — 12:00am
I read that our new Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, has already understood the chief requirement of his office: the ability to say no to ministerial colleagues wanting to spend more on 101 worthy projects.
Sorry, Josh, but if you’re hoping to be a successful treasurer in the years beyond the coming election, you – and your Treasury minions - will need to do much better than that.
Josh Frydenberg replaced now Prime Minister Scott Morrison as treasurer and meet with former Howard era treasurer Peter Costello this morning.
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Morrison government giving Catholic schools 10 times what they need: analysis
By Michael Koziol
24 September 2018 — 12:01am
The Morrison government has given Catholic schools more than 10 times the amount of money needed to maintain "affordable choice" for parents, according to analysis by the Grattan Institute.
Meanwhile, federal Education Minister Dan Tehan has signalled there is room to compromise as he attempts to fend off a major stoush with the NSW Liberal government over school funding.
The $4.6 billion injection into private schools announced last week included a $1.2 billion "choice and affordability" fund designed to help Catholic and independent schools keep fees low.
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Treasurer Josh Frydenberg refuses to back Federal Government’s Budget repair plan
Shane Wright, Economics Editor The West Australian Monday, 24 September 2018 9:58AM
New Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has refused to back the Federal Government’s own strategy to repair the Budget, signalling Scott Morrison’s plans to spend up to win back voters.
Twice pressed by The West Australian on whether the Budget repair strategy remained policy, Mr Frydenberg instead said his focus was on “responsible spending”.
The Government has made almost $20 billion worth of spending commitments over recent months without offsetting their impact on the Budget.
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Budget surplus in sight for Morrison ahead of election
- 12:00AM September 26, 2018
A rapid improvement in the federal budget, partly driven by a lower outlay on welfare, has positioned the Morrison government within striking distance of a surplus and delivered it scope to offer an ambitious election spending platform and further tax cuts.
Strong economic growth and continued tight control over spending slashed the deficit from the $33.2 billion recorded in 2016-17 to $10.1bn in the last financial year.
Surging growth in jobs and company profits delivered a $13.4bn boost to revenue last year while the restrictions on expenditure, particularly in the social services portfolio, delivered unexpected savings of $6.9bn.
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Billions in savings come from those at margins
- 12:00AM September 26, 2018
A multi-billion-dollar turnaround in budget fortunes for the Coalition has come partly at the expense of people at the margins, with more than $6.3 billion saved from social security, headlined by National Disability Insurance Scheme delays.
The federal government spent $2.5bn less on the NDIS in 2017-18 than first estimated, a result the final budget outcome attributes to “lower-than-expected numbers of participants entering the NDIS”.
The government also booked an underspend of almost $900 million on the Age Pension because fewer people than anticipated were eligible after new rules came into effect. The pension age is creeping up to 67 — rising in six-month increments every two years — with the age moving to 65½ from July last year.
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'Our children deserve better': Coalition's budget strategy in tatters
By Jessica Irvine
27 September 2018 — 12:00am
Such is the dizzying pace of politics these days, the overnight transformation of Scott Morrison from penny-pinching Treasurer into ‘soft-touch’ dad has gone almost unnoticed.
But listen closely, and you can almost hear the whiplash sound as ScoMo lets go of the purse strings.
Just one month into the top job, Prime Minister Morrison has left a multibillion-dollar black mark on the national budget. Within days, he abandoned a planned increase in the age pension qualifying age to 70 – one of the last remaining policies of the Abbott government’s National Commission of Audit – at a cost to the budget bottom line of $5 billion.
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- Updated Sep 25 2018 at 11:00 PM
Government leaves room for election spending as tax boost drives budget surge
The biggest annual increase in tax revenue since the introduction of the GST has slashed the budget deficit to $10 billion but the government remains coy about an early return to surplus as it leaves itself room for pre-election spending commitments.
Figures released Tuesday show the 2018 financial year budget deficit shrank to $10.1 billion, almost half the $18.2 billion forecast in the May budget, and one third the $29.4 billion originally forecast in the 2017-18 budget.
Despite the surge, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg played down, but did not rule out, a return to surplus as early as this year.
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Health Budget Issues.
GPs struggle in a system ill-equipped to deal with mental health
By Jill Stark
24 September 2018 — 12:00am
I sat in the waiting room staring at my hands, willing them to stop shaking. Anxiety was a fighter jet, roaring through my cells, dropping grenades from head to toe.
When the doctor called my name I shuffled after her, a shrunken version of a self I no longer recognised. Fixing her eyes on a computer screen, she hammered the keys and asked me to explain why I was there.
When I told her I was experiencing what felt like an acute recurrence of the depression and anxiety I’d grappled with since I was a teenager she pushed a sheet of paper across the desk and I began to tick boxes.
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HIV on the rise in straight Australian men, Kirby Institute report
By Kate Aubusson
23 September 2018 — 11:45pm
Rising numbers of straight men are being diagnosed with HIV in Australia, with many unknowingly living with the infection for years before they get tested.
HIV diagnoses have hit a seven-year-low, but heterosexual people are bucking the positive trend, the latest surveillance report by UNSW's Kirby Institute shows.
As HIV rates fell dramatically among gay and bisexual men, new HIV diagnoses attributed to heterosexual sex rose 10 per cent over the past five years and 14 per cent between 2016 and 2017, according to the detailed analysis released on Monday.
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Door greeters, refreshments: new trial in NSW emergency departments
By Kate Aubusson
24 September 2018 — 10:45am
A trial at some of the busiest emergency departments in Sydney and north-west NSW aims to make long and anxious waits more comfortable and convenient.
Blacktown, Liverpool, Nepean and Lismore hospital emergency departments will roll out a suite of new measures including better amenities and more information for patients and their families, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard announced on Monday.
Some of the trial's features sound more like the perks of a hotel lobby or airport lounge, including staff greeting patients as they arrive, free WiFi, charging stations for mobile devices, water and refreshments "and other essentials aimed at improving the waiting room experience".
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Still getting it wrong on mental health
24 September 2018 — 12:05am
Half of all visits to GPs involve mental illness. And four in 10 residents of aged care facilities receive no visitors. These two stark statistics speak volumes on the overlap between mental and physical health. They emphasise how the long-standing funding imbalance in favour of physical wellness is a costly mistake in terms of lives and taxpayers’ money.
Loneliness, research has shown, is as a big a risk to health and mortality as now recognised as smoking, obesity and high blood pressure. This is an issue that should be carefully analysed by the aged care royal commission announced in recent days by Prime Minister Scott Morrison. There are community-based ways to increase connections between people, to the benefit of all involved. There have been some wonderful programs that bring together young people and aged care residents, for example.
Mental ill-health is the condition GPs treat more than any other, according to a survey by the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, yet consultations are expected to be undertaken in only six minutes and access to psychologists and psychiatrists too limited, doctors say. This can lead to inadequate treatment and a growing cost to the public health system from needlessly protracted illness.
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- Updated Sep 24 2018 at 11:00 PM
Aged care staffing ratios could bring $5 billion cost hit to industry
A union proposal to legislate staffing ratios in aged care to combat neglect could hit the industry with almost $5 billion in extra costs, a new analysis shows.
The previously unreleased analysis, prepared by the Aged Care Guild in June, found the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation's proposal to boost staff care hours would equate to an extra $25,000 per resident or $4.9 billion after accounting for penalty rates.
The analysis indicates mandated staffing ratios, likely to be considered in the aged care royal commission, could worsen the sector's viability at a time when its profitability is already expected to deteriorate significantly.
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Indigenous people’s HIV risk double that of other Australian’s
- 12:00AM September 24, 2018
Indigenous communities have a HIV rate that is almost double that of other Australians and infected heterosexuals may also be spreading the virus without knowing, according to new data.
The latest surveillance report from the Kirby Institute at UNSW report will be discussed at the Australasian HIV and AIDS Conference in Sydney today.
Despite the 963 new HIV diagnoses last year being the lowest number in seven years, and a 7 per cent decline in diagnoses over five years, the receding public health crisis has revealed fresh concerns.
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$52m set aside to inoculate teens for free against meningococcal disease
- 12:00AM September 26, 2018
Teenagers will be offered a free vaccination against four strains of meningococcal from April after the federal government agreed to budget $52 million for the measure.
The Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee recommended adolescents have a subsidised vaccine for meningococcal A, C, W and Y after 28 people died from the infection last year.
Health Minister Greg Hunt yesterday confirmed the vaccine would be added to the National Immunisation Program for those aged 14 to 19.
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Jump in national suicide rate
1:41pm Sep 26, 2018
More Australians took their own lives in 2017 than the year before, with almost a third of those who died by suicide experiencing an alcohol or drug use disorder at the time.
There was 3128 deaths by suicide across the nation last year, compared to 2866 in 2016, new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows.
The rate of suicide deaths per 100,000 people was 12.7 in 2017, compared to 11.8 in 2016.
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Suicide rate rises to highest in a decade
- 12:00AM September 27, 2018
More than 3000 Australians took their own lives last year, when suicide surpassed influenza and pneumonia to become the 13th most common cause of death.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the suicide rate increased from 11.8 to 12.7 per 100,000 people in 2017, which was the equal highest over the decade. The 3128 deaths reported were 262 more than the previous year, a 9.1 per cent increase.
Suicide remained the leading cause of death among people aged 15-44 years, normally the healthiest members of the community, and accounted for more than one-third of all deaths among those aged 15-24.
SANE Australia CEO Jack Heath said yesterday if the trends continued there would soon be nine people lost to suicide every day.
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A tenth of total spending is on health
Australia spent nearly $181 billion on health in 2016/17, equal to about 10 per cent of all economic spending in the nation, new data reveals.
28 September, 2018
One tenth of the nations economic spending goes towards health, new data shows.
Australia spent nearly $181 billion on health in 2016/17, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare's report into health expenditure states.
Released on Friday, the data shows health spending grew by 4.7 per cent in that time period compared to an average of 3.1 per cent in each of the five years prior.
"This was also the first time spending grew more than the decade average (4.6 per cent) since 2011/12,' AIHW spokesman Adrian Webster said in a statement on Friday.
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Control of pathology rent is political puppetry
By Craig Richards
27 September 2018 — 10:00pm
As a profession, GPs are impressively uninterested in politics and yet there is one component in which we excel - identifying health policy that defies clear evidence.
A classic example is the Department of Health’s recent announcement that it intends to turn up the heat on general practices who rent space to pathology companies.
To set the scene, Australia’s pathology oligopoly comprises large, highly profitable corporations feeding almost exclusively off the public purse. While operating costs have fallen dramatically with increasing automation, Medicare rebates have remained steady resulting in high profit margins for pathology companies.
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Patients slugged $1.4bn in private gap fees
- 12:00AM September 28, 2018
Public hospital patients are paying out $1.4 billion in private gap fees every year as the states continue to rely on insurers to prop up their budgets, according to new figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.
The federal government is also contributing a larger share of the cost of delivering public hospital services, with its contribution rising to 40.6 per cent in 2016-17 as the states’ share fell to 51 per cent.
That was the lowest proportion for the states and the highest for the commonwealth in eight years. Patients, meanwhile, were responsible for 2.7 per cent and insurers 2.3 per cent.
Last financial year, the commonwealth gave $21.7bn to public hospitals (up 6.2 per cent on the previous year) and the states put up $27.3bn, an increase of 0.1 per cent and well below their 10-year average growth of 3.4 per cent.
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DNA data upgrade key to cold cases
- 12:00AM September 29, 2018
Police are set to crack some of Australia’s toughest homicide and serial sexual assault cases — and to identify some of the hundreds of unknown deceased — after major enhancements to the national DNA database.
Since earlier this month, all state and territory police forces have been able to conduct familial DNA searches to identify offenders through profiles of relatives on the database.
The cross-border searches, which turn family members into genetic informants, could have brought a quicker resolution in cases such as the 2001 Northern Territory murder of British tourist Peter Falconio, experts say.
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International Issues.
Second woman accuses Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's Supreme Court pick
By Erin Nyren
24 September 2018 — 10:44am
Washington: Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who is facing heavy scrutiny after Professor Christine Blasey Ford accused him of sexually assaulting her in high school, has been accused by another woman, Deborah Ramirez, of sexual misconduct.
In a New Yorker report from Ronan Farrow and Jane Mayer, Ramirez recounts an incident that she says occurred during the 1983-84 academic year, when both she and Kavanaugh were at Yale University.
Ramirez alleges that Kavanaugh exposed himself to her at a college party, where they had both been drinking, "thrust his penis in her face, and caused her to touch it without her consent as she pushed him away."
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India's 'Modicare' a multi-billion dollar gamble on health
By Vidhi Doshi
23 September 2018 — 1:59pm
New Delhi: Personalised letters from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, announcements from door-knocking healthcare workers and lists pinned up at village council offices trumpet the news: India's vast new health program has arrived.
Starting on Sunday, half a billion Indian citizens will be covered under an initiative that local media have dubbed "Modicare". Although nobody seems to be sure whether it will work or how much it will cost, the government has touted it as the world's biggest government-funded health scheme.
India's top court scrapped a colonial-era ban on gay sex in a landmark judgement that activists hope will uphold the right to equality.
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'President's folly': China reaches into US heartland in trade war
24 September 2018 — 8:20am
Washington: China reached into the US heartland in its escalating trade war over President Donald Trump's tariffs, using an advertising supplement in Iowa's largest newspaper to highlight the impact on the state's soybean farmers as "the fruit of a president's folly.''
The four-page section in Sunday's Des Moines Register, which carried the label "paid for and prepared solely by China Daily, an official publication of the People's Republic of China," featured such articles as one outlining how the trade dispute is forcing Chinese importers to turn to South America instead of the US for soybeans.
The advertising targets a state critical to Trump and Republicans as the trade war between the world's two largest economies intensifies. The US is imposing tariffs on an additional $US200 billion worth of Chinese imports starting Monday, on top of the $US50 billion in goods already hit with tariffs. Meanwhile, $US110 billion of goods from the US will become subject to Chinese retaliatory tariffs around the same time.
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Dangerous divergence: why the global economy is getting more vulnerable
By Stephen Bartholomeusz
24 September 2018 — 12:46pm
Of the major financial agencies, the Bank for International Settlements has probably been the most consistently vocal in calling out the risks of the prolonged period of low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policies that central banks have implemented since the global financial crisis. It still believes the world is vulnerable, that the vulnerabilities have increased and that central banks have exhausted their ability to respond to a new crisis.
The BIS – the central bank for central banks – released its latest quarterly review at the weekend, with Claudio Borio, who heads monetary and economic department, highlighting the divergence between emerging market economies and the US that has developed this year.
Growth within US economy has accelerated even as the US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates and shrinking its GFC-bloated balance sheet, with Borio saying, however, that, if anything, financial conditions had eased further.
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- Updated Sep 24 2018 at 11:00 PM
Is a US sharemarket correction coming? Here are the signs of investor euphoria.
by Michael McCarthy
"Bull markets are born on despair, rise on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria" – Sir John Templeton
In the computer age most investors rely exclusively on quantitative analysis. Whether it's GDP and CPI data, company earnings results or chart-based assessments, it's the numbers that count.
It's understandable. Numbers are by definition precise, and easily compared one with another. But the numbers rarely help when it comes to one of the most important.
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China accuses Trump Administration of bullying as trade war flares
By Kirsty Needham
24 September 2018 — 5:56pm
Beijing: The Chinese government has accused the Trump Administration of bullying, as $US200 billion ($275 billion) in punitive tariffs were imposed on thousands of Chinese goods and Beijing retaliated with $US60 billion in tariffs on Monday.
Within hours of the tariffs being triggered, China's State Council released a White Paper blaming the White House for quickly escalating the trade dispute with contradictory behaviour and causing serious damage to economic relations between the two countries, as well as "posing a grave threat to the multilateral trading system".
China has canceled upcoming trade talks with the United States and will not send vice-premier Liu He to Washington next week.
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Donald Trump’s China tariffs are really aimed at US companies
- 7:51AM September 24, 2018
As Australians tuck into their lunches today, the clock in Washington will tick over to midnight and 5,745 imports from China, worth $US200 billion, will suddenly go up in price by 10 per cent because of a new tax, otherwise known as tariffs.
Meanwhile last Thursday, the US State Department said it was imposing sanctions on the Chinese Central Military Commission for “engaging in significant transactions” with a group in the Russian defence sector that is on a list of black-listed entities.
That has outraged Beijing, where the Ministry of Defence has called it “a flagrant breach of basic rules of international relations”.
In retaliation, they have cancelled a September meeting on joint staff communications and recalled a Chinese naval commander who was in the US at a naval conference.
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- Updated Sep 26 2018 at 2:38 AM
Donald Trump pits 'patriotism' over 'globalism' at UN speech
by Jacob Greber
New York | Donald Trump delivered a blunt condemnation of cooperative "globalism", lashing out at OPEC countries for keeping oil prices too high, complaining about foreign aid in which "few give anything" to the US, and condemning "abusive" trade relationships led by China that have "plundered" American wealth.
In a speech firmly aimed at the Republican conservative base ahead of the mid-term elections in November, Mr Trump told world leaders his foreign policy is built on "principled realism" that rejects "so-called experts" who repeatedly get things wrong.
"America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of globalism and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism," he told the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST).
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US-China trade tensions spilling over into the military arena
By Steven Lee Myers
26 September 2018 — 7:18am
Beijing: China rejected a request by a US warship to make a port visit to Hong Kong next month, officials said on Tuesday, as tensions between the two countries flared on military as well as economic fronts.
The cancellation of a planned visit by the USS Wasp, an amphibious assault ship carrying a contingent of Marines, followed China's decision to recall a senior admiral who was in the United States for a naval conference this week.
Both actions were prompted by a Trump administration decision to impose sanctions on a Chinese state military company linked to the People's Liberation Army for buying weapons from Russia. Although the economic impact of the US action on the Chinese remains unclear, the vehemence of Beijing's response suggested that the move stung.
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- Sep 27 2018 at 4:05 AM
Federal Reserve lifts interest rates, flags end of 'accommodative' policy
by Jacob Greber
New York | The US Federal Reserve has officially ended America's crisis era monetary policy, hiking interest rates for the third time in 2018 with more to follow, as signs of a brightening economy overshadow growing concerns about the China trade war.
Shunning President Donald Trump's complaints about rising rates, the Fed lifted its overnight benchmark lending rate by 0.25 of a percentage point to a range of 2 per cent to 2.25 per cent.
Pointedly the Fed scrapped its previous description of monetary policy as being "accommodative" - implying the key rate is now at a level that its economists regard as "neutral".
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'We need to change': Pope's pitch to reconnect with Catholics
By Helena Alves & Kirsten Grieshaber
26 September 2018 — 9:58am
Tallinn, Estonia: Pope Francis acknowledged Tuesday that priestly sex abuse scandals are outraging the Catholic faithful and driving them away, and said the church must change its ways if it wants to keep future generations.
Francis referred directly to the crisis convulsing his papacy on the fourth and final day of his Baltic pilgrimage, which coincided with the release of a devastating new report into decades of sex abuse and cover-ups in Germany.
Francis told young people in Estonia, considered one of the least religious countries in the world, that he knew many young people felt the church had nothing to offer them and simply doesn't understand their problems today.
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Kindness, not fear or hate - Jacinda's message to Trump and the world
By Tracy Watkins
28 September 2018 — 7:16am
Wellington: New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has used her debut speech to the United Nations General Assembly to directly challenge the view of the world outlined by US President Donald Trump in his speech there earlier this week.
Contrasting with US President Donald Trump's speech against international institutions, Jacinda Ardern has spoken out against blaming a "nameless, faceless other".
And she has called for a different world order - one that puts "kindness" ahead of isolationism, rejection and racism.
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No longer 'envy of the world': Fed's projections put it on collision course with Trump
By Stephen Bartholomeusz
27 September 2018 — 3:00pm
The relative calm of the markets’ responses to the latest Federal Reserve Board interest rate hike, its foreshadowing of another later in the year and three more next year points to a level of complacency not borne out by the Fed’s economic projections.
The US dollar was slightly firmer against major trading partners’ currencies, Treasury bond yields slid slightly and stocks fell modestly towards the end of trading after the Fed announced its latest 25 basis point increase. The Australian dollar was steady.
That reaction wasn’t unexpected. The Fed had signalled well in advance that it would lift the federal funds rate two more time before the end of the year and its more recent statements have pointed to three of its now regular 25 basis point increases in 2019 (although the market has been pricing in only two).
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
