March 7, 2019
Edition.
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Well what a
huge week on the Trump front – An apparently failed summit in Hanoi and while
that was going on a spectacular hatchet job being delivered at home back in
Washington. Vast amounts of fun being had by all. Now the Dems are subpoenaing everyone in sight!
Brexit drifts
with many saving a second vote is needed. It is only a few weeks until it
happens they think, but deferral looks inevitable.
In OZ the
rats in Cabinet are all leaving to maximise their pensions if they were in the
old scheme!
Otherwise it
seems climate change has become real for the LNP for a few weeks – what a
farce!
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Major Issues.
New bank tax under Labor will fund financial counsellors to fight banks
By John Kehoe
Updated Feb 25, 2019 — 7.39am, first published at 12.00am
Banks
will be slugged an extra $640 million under a future Labor government to pay
for a new "fairness" fund to give consumers a better chance to fight
back against financial institutions.
In
the latest tit-for-tat political crackdown on banks in response to the Hayne
royal commission before the expected May federal election, Opposition Leader
Bill Shorten will today announce a proposed Financial Rights Fund, in part to
pay for a doubling of the number of financial counsellors.
The
proposed new tax or fee on banking institutions listed inside Australia's
largest 100 public companies would raise an estimated $160 million a year and
accumulate over the four-year federal budget period.
Financial
institutions with banking businesses to be hit by the levy include AMP, ANZ,
Bank of Queensland, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia,
National Australia Bank, Macquarie, Suncorp and Westpac.
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On climate change, Scott Morrison is embracing politics as the art of the possible
By Bevan Shields
February 24, 2019
— 11.45pm
Malcolm
Turnbull had just been chopped down by colleagues when he neatly summarised the
problem his successor has spent the last six months working to resolve.
"The
truth is that the Coalition finds it very hard to get agreement on anything to
do with emissions," Turnbull said in his final press conference as prime
minister.
"Emissions
issues and climate policy issues have the same problem within the Coalition of
bitterly entrenched views that are actually more ideological than views
based on engineering and economics."
Turnbull
had hours earlier been axed, in part, for the high crime of trying to fix
Australia's unreliable energy system and lower pollution from the
electricity sector. The collapse of the National Energy Guarantee amid the
August leadership turmoil left the government hugely exposed on climate change,
which has catapulted to a first-order issue for many Australians - including
core Liberal Party supporters - after a summer of natural disasters. Climate
change was also a major factor in the Wentworth byelection thrashing of
October and the Victorian state election disaster in November.
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Labor to announce post-merger review policy
By Shane Wright
February 25, 2019
— 12.01am
The
competition watchdog would have to review company mergers to ensure new firms
are not abusing their increased power by driving up prices to consumers, under
plans to be unveiled by the Labor Party.
The
ALP will on Monday announce plans that would require the Australian Competition
and Consumer Commission to review a newly-approved merger twice in the decade
after it was approved.
It
follows growing concern on both sides of politics about market concentration
and the power of increasingly-large firms.
Last
week, the government announced its plans to introduce default prices in the
electricity market, driven in part by the lack of competition in the power
sector, while the Nationals have attacked Coles and Aldi for failing to follow
the lead of Woolworths by increasing milk prices to aid dairy farmers.
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Perth retirees vow to take Chris Bowen's advice on voting for someone else
Updated Feb 25, 2019 — 6.39pm, first published at 5.31pm
Self-funded
retiree Kerry Lovegrove said he worked for 55 years and planned carefully for
his retirement, but faced a big drop in income under the Labor party's
"extremely unfair" franking policy.
A
standing-room only crowd of about 140 retirees blasted the policy at a forum in Perth on Monday,
accusing Labor of shifting the goalposts on older people who had worked hard to
support themselves in retirement and took pride in the fact the didn't have to
rely on pension payments.
"I
intend to take up Mr Bowen's suggestion," Mr Lovegrove said to loud
applause. He was referring to shadow treasurer Chris Bowen's comment that angry
investors take their vote elsewhere if they felt strongly about the policy.
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Weak incomes for years to come, International Monetary Fund warns
By John Kehoe
Updated Feb 26, 2019 — 6.40am, first published at Feb 25, 2019 — 11.00pm
Real
incomes are poised to barely grow over the next six years and living standards
are destined for a slowdown, unless a wave of major economic reforms and
technology innovation by business can unleash a productivity boom like in the
1990s.
The
International Monetary Fund has projected that incomes adjusted for inflation
would average just 0.3 per cent growth a year through to 2024, well below the
long-term average of 1.8 per cent since the 1960s.
The IMF's economic growth projection of 2.6 per cent from next year
onwards is also below Treasury's above-trend forecast of 3 per cent til
2020-21 and the government's projection beyond then for sustainable potential
growth of 2.75 per cent.
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Is the World Actually Getting Better?
By
Irving Wladawsky-Berger
Feb 22, 2019 2:57 pm ET
The
World is Getting Quietly, Relentlessly Better is the title
of a recent story by Greg Ip, The Wall Street Journal's chief economics
commentator. “If you spent 2018 mainlining misery about global warming,
inequality, toxic politics or other anxieties, I’m here to break your addiction
with some good news: The world got better last year, and it is going to get
even better this year,” he writes. “Poverty around the world is plummeting;
half the world is now middle class; and illiteracy, disease and deadly violence
are receding. These things don’t make headlines because they are gradual,
relentless and unsurprising.”
Mr.
Ip’s article is mostly based on data insights from Our World in Data,
a comprehensive website that quantifies the evolution of our global living
conditions over the past few centuries. Our World in Data is an initiative of
the Oxford Martin Programme on Global Development, led by economist Max Roser
at the University of Oxford.
OWID
analyzes longitudinal data on how the world has been changing over decades and
centuries, as well as explaining the causes and consequences of those changes.
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Wrecking ball not needed to tackle climate change
By Scott Morrison
February 26, 2019
— 12.05am
No
sole political or special interest group is the cradle of compassion for our
environment. Our government acknowledges and accepts the challenge of
addressing climate change. However, we do so not just with impassioned hearts –
but also cool heads. We do not believe we have to choose between preserving our
environment and keeping our economy strong.
Former
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's pet project, the Snowy 2.0 plan, the green
light to start work by the Federal government.
The
Liberals and Nationals have a strong record of environmental vision and
achievement. From the Menzies government that signed the Antarctic Treaty to
the Howard government’s founding of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, we
understand that protecting and conserving our environment is a matter of
intergenerational stewardship. Our land, air, oceans, reefs, fisheries and
biodiversity are all vital parts of our inheritance. We hold them in trust today
for Australians who will come after us. And reducing carbon emissions to
address the real challenge of climate change requires practical policies.
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Funds mobilise 160,000 investors against ALP franking credit policy
By Lucy Battersby and Emma Koehn
February 25, 2019
— 6.19pm
Labor
faces a fresh attack on its proposed changes to the taxing of dividends after a
major ASX-listed investment house vowed to mobilise its 160,000 shareholder
base against a policy it branded ''an attack on one of the cornerstones of
Australia's retirement systems''.
The
chairmen of related listed investment companies Australian Foundation
Investment Company, Amcil, Mirabooka, and Djerriwarh, wrote to shareholders on
Monday asking them to complete a survey and to stay in touch to find out ''what
you can do over the ensuing months to ensure your voice is heard''.
The
four investment funds collectively have about 160,000 shareholders, primarily
investors who buy the shares for its reliable dividend-based income rather than
capital growth.
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A smoker writes his own obituary: 'Quit now, your life depends on it'
By Lindsey Bever
February 26, 2019
— 10.47am
Washington: Four
days before he died, Geoffrey Turner turned to his daughter and asked for his
laptop.
Sarah
Huiest knew that her father had made preparations for his death, including
writing his own obituary – a way, she said, for the 66-year-old to tell his own
story in his own words.
Huiest
said she had not yet read it, but now, it was time.
"I
have something I want to show you," she said he told her.
Huiest
said she thought it would be about "his world travels, work ventures and
various accomplishments".
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Work insight is out of this world
- 12:00AM February 26, 2019
Few Australians may ever travel into space but their reliance on
industry above Earth is already commonplace.
From telecommunications to GPS, satellites are big business and
the potential seems as vast as near-space itself.
A vision of what the space industry is doing and what is to come
will be on display for the first time at Avalon 2019, the biennial Australian
International Airshow.
The Australian Space Agency will have its own stand and an
inaugural space business conference will be held, focusing on what business
opportunities exist in the heavens.
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Societe Generale's Albert Edwards says markets are 'stoned on free money'
Feb 25, 2019 — 3.15pm
For
Societe Generale's uber-bear Albert Edwards, investors are "stoned on free
money" and as a result, they've become numb to what he sees as the signs
of an approaching recession.
What
triggered Mr Edwards' latest concerns is the United States Federal Reserve's
response to the US stockmarket's worst December since 1931 – how swiftly the Fed's peers rushed to match it
– followed by Wall Street recording its best January since 1987.
And
markets haven't stopped rallying this month either. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average has risen nine weeks in a row. On Friday it retopped the 26,000-point
mark as it extended its year-to-date advance to 11.6 per cent. The Dow is on
the verge of re-entering a bull market – it has rebounded 19.5 per cent from
its December 24 close. The Dow plunged 650 points on Christmas Eve.
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Why this time really is different
- 8:04AM February 25, 2019
In his annual
letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote: “Prices
are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects.”
How true. Buffett went on to complain that the “disappointing
reality” for 2019 is that his company will have to buy more marketable
securities, rather than “elephant-sized acquisitions”, which he and Charlie
Munger, his 95-year-old partner, would prefer.
Ordinary investors can relate to what they are going through.
After a refreshing correction last year that cut prices on the ASX
by an average of 14 per cent, the ASX200 index has roared back to life in the new
year with a 13 per cent rally to be back to within 3 per cent of the late
August peak.
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Debt-clogged world close to tipping point of recession
By Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard
Feb 25, 2019 — 11.00am
The
risk of global recession has suddenly jumped several notches, as the
accumulated damage from Donald Trump's trade wars and worldwide monetary tightening
is taking a bigger toll than hoped.
A
mounting weight of evidence suggests we are one shock away from a
contractionary vortex that would be extremely hard to control.
In
America the Federal Reserve's instant tracking gauges of GDP growth have halved
since late January. They are approaching stall speed.
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'Diametrically the wrong time' to curb negative gearing, Liberal MP says
Updated Feb 26, 2019 — 1.57pm, first published at 10.26am
Liberal
MP John Alexander, who championed a policy to reduce how much people could negatively gear property, has
dismissed the introduction of Labor's planned crackdown on the tax break as
poorly timed and showing a lack of understanding of the market.
His
comments came after a survey commissioned by the Property Council of Australia
showed that investors were more likely to ditch their plans to invest in new homes
if Labor introduced its crackdown.
On
Tuesday yet another survey from UBS of its clients showed investors expected
tax policy changes would further hurt home prices but not as badly as tighter
credit.
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18 reasons why property prices will fall further
By Su-Lin Tan
Updated Feb 26, 2019 — 2.16pm, first published at 2.11pm
The housing market has taken a turn for the worse
moving deeper into the decline of a debt-financed asset bubble, possibly
driving house prices to fall by as much as 25 per cent
in 2019 on nominal terms, according to housing bear and analyst LF Economics.
The
group made up of Lindsay David and Philip Soos, who have authored books on boom
and bust in housing markets, lists 18 factors that are putting extreme pressure
on the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
Their
baseline prediction is a 15 per cent to 20 per cent fall in prices just in 2019
although 25 per cent is possible.
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The big problem for Bill Shorten in Treasury's changing assumptions
By John Kehoe
Updated Feb 26, 2019 — 2.51pm, first published at 2.18pm
The
economy's persistent under shooting on wages and productivity
is putting Treasury's budget and economic forecasting framework under pressure
ahead of the federal election.
Treasury
secretary Philip Gaetjens revealed last week at a Senate hearing that the
government's chief economic adviser was reviewing its forecasting methodologies.
Gushing
revenues from the commodity price boom and corporate profits are currently
concealing the underlying problem.
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Morrison pumps hydro over coal
Updated Feb 27, 2019 — 9.35am, first published at Feb 26, 2019 — 9.00pm
The
federal government will consider underwriting of a hydro-electricity project in
Tasmania on Wednesday, as it rejected claims its multibillion-dollar investment
in Snowy 2.0 was unviable and would crowd out investment in other back-up power
sources.
A
day after he gave the green light to Malcolm Turnbull's "vision"
of an expanded Snowy Mountains scheme, Prime Minister Scott Morrison will
signal his intention to back a project in Tasmania as part of the federal
government's commitment to guarantee "fair dinkum energy".
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Climate, the crisis that threatens our political duopoly
By John Hewson
February 28, 2019
— 12.00am
When
does an issue or policy challenge become more important than political party
affiliation? When does a national or global issue outweigh the importance to a
voter of their individual struggles?
These
are becoming increasingly important questions as support for, and belief in,
traditional political parties wanes, and voters are increasingly frustrated and
disappointed by their political representatives and the so-called democratic
processes of government.
In
recent days in the United Kingdom we have seen several important resignations
(12 at last count) from both the Conservative and Labour parties, over Brexit
and other issues, which will test the UK’s ingrained political duopoly. Of
course, this is not the first time the duopoly has been challenged – recall the
breakaway of the Social Democratic Party in 1981.
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'Australians trust Ita': Scott Morrison announces Buttrose as ABC chair
By Fergus Hunter and Jennifer Duke
February 28, 2019
— 10.37am
Prime
Minister Scott Morrison has formally announced Ita Buttrose as the government's
pick to chair the ABC, declaring he trusts the publishing icon to lead the
public broadcaster out of a tumultuous period.
In
a press conference on Thursday, Ms Buttrose said she was a passionate believer
in the ABC and promised to protect its independence. She said her priority was restoring
stability at the top of the organisation after the high-profile departure late
last year of her predecessor Justin Milne and managing director Michelle
Guthrie.
"Australians
trust Ita. I trust Ita and that's why I have asked her to take on this role,"
Mr Morrison said.
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Coal's perfect storm hits $70 billion Australian projects
By James Thornhill
February 27, 2019
— 3.38pm
It's
been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First
there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change grounds, then
one of the world's largest producers, Glencore, capped output growth, and
finally China was seen to be slowing down Australian imports.
The
developments are symptoms of the fossil fuel's decline and likely signal
headwinds for the industry. Australia, which is the world's second-biggest
supplier of coal used for power generation and steel making, has some $70
billion of new coal projects in the pipeline, according to government
estimates.
"They're
probably game-changing events from what we once knew of coal," said David
Lennox, a mining analyst at consultancy Fat Prophets. Recent developments
should be viewed as part of the fuel's gradual decline from a position of
dominance in the global power mix, he added.
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'It's been extreme': Australia's summer smashes seasonal heat records
By Peter Hannam
February 27, 2019
— 6.31pm
Australia
has posted its hottest summer and the first season in which temperatures
exceeded two degrees above the long-term averages, according to the Bureau of
Meteorology.
With
one more day to round out the season, it is clear Australia has eclipsed the
previous hottest summer set in 2012-13, David Jones, manager of the bureau's
climate monitoring, told the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
"It's
been extreme and certainly something we haven't seen before," Dr Jones
said. "It's been dry and intensely hot right through summer."
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Scott Morrison's pea-and-thimble trick
By Peter Hannam
February 27, 2019
— 12.00am
Did
you notice that the Morrison government has slashed Australia's Paris climate
target in half, a detail that somehow escaped scrutiny in the flurry of climate
policies announced this week?
No?
Well, neither did most of the country.
On
paper, Australia remains committed to cutting 2005-level emissions 26 per cent
by 2030.
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Today's defence strategies will soon be outdated
By Nicholas Stuart
February 27, 2019
— 12.00am
If
you actually think the arrival of the ninth future frigate in the 2030’s will
somehow guarantee our future security, you really haven’t been paying
attention.
About
500BC the philosopher Heraclitus looked around and realised the water running
lightly down the streams of the lightly forested Anatolian slopes was
constantly changing. You could never step in (exactly) the same river twice.
Change is the only constant. If the water finds its path in one
direction blocked, it’ll simply back up until it finds some other way to
flow downhill.
Similar
challenges face anyone planning to defend Australia. New technologies render
those of the past obsolete at an ever increasing rate. The technical
hardware around which the forces are structured is already, similarly,
plunging into obsolescence.
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House price falls are not the economy's biggest worry
By Ross Gittins
February 27, 2019
— 5.59am
This
year more than usually, if you want straight talking about the state of the
economy and its prospects, listen to the econocrats not the election-crazed
politicians. Late last week, Reserve Bank governor Dr Philip Lowe had more
sensible things to say in three hours than we usually get in a month.
He
was giving evidence to the House of Representatives standing committee on
economics. For a start, he left little doubt about his disapproval of the way
the two sides are turning the election campaign into a bidding war.
The
ACTU has released advertising and a campaign aimed at stagnant wages, pushing
an increase if $50 per week.
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Boeing unveils unmanned combat jet developed in Australia
Australia's first domestically developed combat aircraft since
World War II
Credit:
REUTERS/Jamie Freed
Boeing
has unveiled an unmanned, fighter-like jet developed in Australia and designed
to fly alongside crewed aircraft in combat for a fraction of the cost.
The
U.S. manufacturer hopes to sell the multi-role aircraft, which is 38 feet long
(11.6 metres) and has a 2,000 nautical mile (3,704 kilometre) range, to
customers around the world, modifying it as requested.
The
prototype is Australia's first domestically developed combat aircraft since
World War II and Boeing's biggest investment in unmanned systems outside the
United States, although the company declined to specify the dollar amount.
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CSIRO saw this summer 30 years ago
Helen Cleugh
Updated Feb 28, 2019 — 8.52am, first published at Feb 27, 2019 — 11.45pm
Across
Australia, this summer has been described as the hottest, wettest, dustiest,
and generally most extreme on record.
With
smashed temperature records, one-in-100 year floods, and bushfires raging for
weeks on end it's not a baseless claim. But just how unusual was this summer in
a historical context? What role is climate change playing in these extreme
weather events? And, importantly, can we expect more of the same?
Compared
to climate observations that date back to 1910, this summer could certainly be
classed as extreme. The Bureau of Meteorology's observations show that January
was the warmest month on record for Australia with mean, maximum and minimum
temperatures all at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. Australia had its
hottest December day on record, with a national mean maximum temperature of
40.19 degrees Celsius being recorded on December 27. Records also dropped in
tropical Queensland with Townsville breaking its 10-day rainfall record by more
than 300 mm (30 per cent more than the previous record). Visit
the BoM website to see the many more records that have made this summer
unprecedented.
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'Enough is enough', says BCA's Jennifer Westacott
Feb 27, 2019 — 11.00pm
Politicians
should stop business bashing and instead redress the shambolic state of politics
that has been the cause of high power prices and an impediment to sorely-needed
economic reform, the Business Council of Australia says.
BCA
chief executive Jennifer Westacott said while the business community "has
got some things to answer for" such as the behaviour of the banks, she
suggested it was internecine political warfare that had thwarted policy reform
and was risking investment.
"Enough
is enough," she told The Australian Financial Review of the "business
bashing" in which all sides are engaging in the run-up to the May federal
election and which, she said, risked weakening the economy.
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Housing credit suffers worst month since 1984
Updated Feb 28, 2019 — 1.11pm, first published at 12.34pm
Housing
credit rose 4.4 per cent in the year to January - the slowest annual rate of
growth since 2013 when it reached its lowest rate on record, according to figures published by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The
credit growth for housing rose 0.2 per cent from December, which was its
smallest monthly increase since credit fell -0.4 per cent in July 1984.
CoreLogic
research analyst Cameron Kusher said that to put these figures in context, such
credit growth was "not as anaemic as it was in January 2019 any time
during the early 1990s recession or during the GFC."
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House price falls 'slow moderately'
Feb 28, 2019 — 3.45pm
Those
hopeful of a sudden turnaround in the property market will be disappointed with
the latest data to be released on Friday that will show a monthly fall in
values of about 1 per cent for both Sydney and Melbourne.
The
projected figures, based on CoreLogic's daily price index over February, do
however point to a "moderate slowdown" in the falls recorded from the
previous two months, according to Cameron Kusher, research analyst at
CoreLogic.
In
January, property values fell 1.3 per cent in Sydney and 1.6 per
cent in Melbourne, while in December, prices fell 1.8 per cent and 1.5 per cent
respectively.
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For the Coalition, holding on means no more alienating the progressive vote
Updated Feb 28, 2019 — 9.54pm, first published at 8.00pm
Contemporary
political history is littered with the souls of those who hesitated.
In
December 2009, Kevin Rudd's carbon price was in tatters after being blocked by the
Greens and new Opposition leader Tony Abbott.
Rudd's
inner circle, fearing the prime minister and the government would unravel,
urged him to call a double dissolution in the new year using climate policy as
a trigger. A swift victory would restore Rudd's mandate, settle the climate
issue and put Abbott to the sword.
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Bill Shorten pledges to build a national fuel reserve
Updated Mar 1, 2019 — 9.20am, first published at Feb 28, 2019 — 5.20pm
Labor
leader Bill Shorten has promised to establish a national fuel reserve if
elected, warning that Australia's current low stocks presented a risk to
national security.
With
MPs from both major parties calling for the problem to be addressed, Mr Shorten
said a Labor government would begin consultations to build reserves ensuring
Australia had a 90-day supply, something it last had in 2012.
"National
security isn't just about our defence forces, or our security agencies,"
he said in a speech in Perth on Thursday.
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Time to turn on your global dividend finder
Feb 28, 2019 — 11.00pm
Global
energy, conglomerates and legacy technology companies are among the companies
that investors could consider as they begin the search to replace high-yielding
domestic stocks.
With
experts urging investors to use the prospect of losing their franking credit refunds under Labor to address overweight exposures to domestic equities, the time
is right to delve deeper into some of the better known companies that can
deliver regular and reliable dividend payments.
Plato
Investment Management deputy portfolio manager Daniel Pennell said Australian
investors and retirees who had large holdings of Telstra and the big four banks
would do well to look further afield for sources of income.
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House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne accelerated through February
By Shane Wright
March 1, 2019 —
10.00am
Sydney
and Melbourne house values fell more than 1 per cent in February, figures show,
amid signs the property slowdown is broadening to almost every market in the
country.
CoreLogic
on Friday reported house values in Sydney dropped by 1.1 per cent last month to
be down 11.5 per cent over the past 12 months.
Melbourne
values tumbled by 1.2 per cent and 4.8 per cent over the past quarter, making
it the softest capital city market in the country. Over the past 12 months,
house values have dropped by 11.5 per cent.
CoreLogic
records a 0.7 per cent decline in national housing values in the month of February.
-----
Peter Dutton claims Australians will be 'kicked off' hospital waiting lists in favour of refugees
By Michael Koziol
February 28, 2019
— 5.25pm
Home
Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has used the departure of the last refugee
children off Nauru to increase the pressure on Labor over the medical transfers
legislation and claim Australians will be "kicked off" waiting lists
for healthcare and public housing.
The
assertion was rubbished by crossbench MP and doctor Kerryn Phelps, the primary
architect of the legislation, who said it was nonsense to suggest the small
caseload would squeeze Australia’s hospital system.
Mr
Dutton confirmed the final four minors on Nauru, along with their families,
left by plane for the United States on Wednesday, to be resettled under the
arrangement struck by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
-----
Big banks pass IMF stress test with flying colours
Updated Mar 1, 2019 — 11.49am, first published at Feb 28, 2019 — 12.00pm
A
30 per cent decline in Aussie house prices combined with a 10 per cent drop in
economic growth – simulating a recession similar to that experienced by the US
during the global financial crisis (GFC) – would not be enough to force the
banks' capital ratios down to regulatory minimums or convert bank hybrids into
equity according to the International Monetary Fund's latest analysis.
This
is a strong tick of approval for APRA's efforts to compel the big banks to boost their
common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratios by more than 50 per cent to meet its
new "unquestionably strong" target. It also confirms APRA's 2018
stress-testing findings, which in contrast to the 2014 exercise showed that a
GFC-style shock would not force the banks' CET1 ratios down to the critical
5.125 per cent level that triggers the automatic conversion of hybrids into
equity (diluting shareholders).
In
its latest financial stability assessment of Australia, the IMF developed a
"hypothetical, adverse scenario [that] simulates the impact of a sharp
contraction of the economy, similar to the experience of the US during the
GFC".
-----
Coalition reels as Chris Pyne, Steve Ciobo quit, with Craig Laundy next
Updated Mar 1, 2019 — 10.19pm, first published at 10.00pm
The
Morrison's government's confidence has taken a hammer blow just months from the
federal election with two more cabinet ministers quitting and former minister
Craig Laundy soon to follow suit.
Just
weeks after the government assured there would be no more high-profile
pre-election resignations, Defence Minister Christopher Pyne and Defence
Industry Minister Steve Ciobo will announce their resignations on Saturday.
Mr
Laundy, who went to the backbench to protest the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull,
has told colleagues that he too is leaving. This will leave his marginal
western Sydney seat of Reid vulnerable. While Mr Ciobo's Gold Coast seat of
Moncrieff is safe, Mr Pyne's Adelaide seat of Sturt, which he has held for 26
years, is held by a margin of just 5.4 per cent.
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Pyne's exit points to Liberal Party's grim election hopes
By David Wroe
March 1, 2019 —
5.43pm
Christopher
Pyne is ranked No. 5 on the list of cabinet seniority. He is Leader of the
House, meaning he represents the government in the House of Representatives
chamber.
He
is the only member of the Liberal leadership team to have survived the
tumultuous past decade. Oh, and he’s the second longest-serving member of the
lower house.
After 26 years in parliament Liberal
minister Christopher Pyne has officially announced he is quitting politics,
ending days of speculation about his future.
In
other words, this is not just any resignation three months out from a federal
election.
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As threats mount, we must start taking defence seriously
- 12:00AM March 2, 2019
Australia cannot defend itself against any big, militarily capable
adversary. Though we spend nearly $40 billion a year on defence, we have no
serious capability to resist, or impose a substantial cost, on any big,
powerful nation that means us harm.
In any conflict with a big power, any threatened conflict or even
a scenario of sustained coercion, we are dependent on the Americans to fight
for us.
The announcement that Defence Minister Christopher Pyne and
Defence Industry Minister Steven Ciobo will leave politics at the next election
demonstrates the chaotic dysfunction, churn, instability and deeply unserious
way as a nation we approach our own defence.
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Morrison’s 50pc renewable target
- 12:00AM March 2, 2019
This is not something Scott Morrison mentioned this week in his
expansive enthusiasms about Snowy 2.0 and the second Bass Strait interconnector,
in fact he’d probably prefer it didn’t get out, but the effect of those things
is that the Coalition now has an effective renewable energy target of at least
50 per cent, the same as Labor.
Snowy 2.0 and the Marinus Link, as it’s called, are both pumped
hydro energy storage projects — that is, “batteries” that use water flowing
down from higher dams to which it has been pumped, to drive turbines. Storage
is only needed for renewables, not coal generation, because coal burns all the
time.
Put to one side the fact that it would be far better to have lots
of small pumped hydro facilities close to their markets to cut down on
transmission losses than one or two big ones somewhere far away. Thousands of
potential sites have been identified and will probably be developed, destroying
the viability of Snowy 2.0 and the Marinus Link. But that’s another story.
-----
Foreign Minister Marise Payne appoints friend and ally to plum diplomatic post
By David Wroe
March 1, 2019 —
11.45pm
Foreign
Minister Marise Payne has appointed a friend and political ally to the plum
diplomatic post of High Commissioner to New Zealand in the latest episode
likely to earn claims of cronyism.
Senator
Payne will announce on Saturday that the former New South Wales Liberal MP
Patricia Forsythe will become the top diplomat to Australia's closest
neighbour, a role has typically been held by career Department of Foreign
Affairs officers.
The
two have reportedly been friends since the 1990s and close political allies
from the moderate faction of the NSW Liberal Party.
-----
Royal Commissions And Similar.
It's not business-bashing, it's the public's moment of truth
By Ross Gittins
February 25, 2019
— 12.00am
With
the federal election campaign being fought over which side will do the better
job of re-regulating the banks, the energy companies and business generally, big
business seems to be going through the stages of grief. It’s reached denial.
According
to the Australian Financial Review,
the Business Council of Australia is most put out that the Morrison government
has yielded to pressure from Labor and some Nationals to
support a bill making it easier for smaller businesses to take legal action
against big businesses.
Apparently,
Scott Morrison and his lieutenants had the temerity to make the decision
without giving the council an opportunity for private lobbying.
Which
would have been intend to avoid “harmful unintended consequences,” including
any possible drag on the economy. Of course.
-----
Extra bank capital in NZ could trigger $8.1 billion in equity raisings: S&P
By James Eyers
Updated Feb 25, 2019 — 1.37pm, first published at 12.56pm
S&P
Global Ratings expects the major banks will have to raise $8.1 billion in
additional equity capital to maintain capital ratios in Australia if the
Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues its plan to push bank capital buffers to
the highest levels in the world.
The
international ratings agency said the moves would strengthen the credit profile
of the major banks' subsidiaries in NZ and its ratings would be unchanged.
However, the action would be a big cost for the major banks, which lend $9 in
every $10 in New Zealand, forcing them to raise additional equity to maintain
"Level 1" (Australian parent) capital ratios.
ANZ
Banking Group and National Australia Bank would require the most capital,
according to S&P's analysis, with each needing $2.4 billion to maintain
their common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratios with the same buffer over the minimum
they operate with now.
-----
Nursing home funding to surge under blueprint for aged care
- 12:00AM February 26, 2019
Funding for high-care nursing home residents would be doubled and
aged-care providers given operating payments to “keep the doors open” under a
multi-billion-dollar plan being examined by the federal government.
The first study into the cost of delivering aged care has been
completed and handed to Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt. It will form the
blueprint for a once-in-a-generation overhaul of the sector, which has a
current taxpayer-funded budget of $18 billion.
The major findings of the research are that nursing homes should
be funded through a “blended payment”, with about half in the form of a subsidy
recognising the cost of keeping their doors open, regardless of the needs of
individual residents. A second payment would cover the care needs of elderly residents,
who would be split into 13 “cost classes” based largely on how much assistance
they need to walk or even move in bed.
-----
A contrarian play on the aged care sector
Newgate Capital Partners
"We're
focussed on valuing the business rather than just the stock. Underlying that is
our estimate of private market value, which is what an informed, rational
investor would pay for the entire company"
~John Rogers, investor, philanthropist and founder of Ariel Capital Management
The Aged Care Industry
The
aged care industry provides a non-discretionary, essential service to the
community. It provides accommodation, clinical care, meals and living services
to the elderly who can no longer live unassisted.
There
are about 900
aged care operators in Australia, operating 2,700
facilities. These facilities hold about 200,000 beds,
which are generally fully occupied by residents that stay on average two to
three years. The average size of a facility is 60 beds, employing 110 people.
The
industry is highly fragmented with 600 operators only owning one aged
care facility.
-----
27 February 2019
Use of chemical restraints in aged care is rife
Last
month the aged care minister Ken Wyatt announced he would introduce regulations
to address the use of “chemical restraint” in residential aged care – a
practice where residents are given psychotropic drugs which affect their mental
state in order to “control” their behaviour.
Psychotropic
medications used as “chemical restraints” are antipsychotics, antidepressants,
anti-epileptics and benzodiazepines (tranquilisers).
Wyatt
followed this announcement this month with a A$4.2 million funding pledge to better
monitor care in nursing homes through mandatory “quality indicators”, and
including one covering medication management.
-----
Exodus as pressure builds on aged care sector
- 12:00AM February 28, 2019
Two executives covering clinical and quality care at aged-care
provider Estia Health have left the $600 million listed company just weeks after
the royal commission into the sector began, the latest movements in an industry
under significant strain.
The Australian can also reveal Bupa Aged Care
has drawn the eye of the royal commissioners after its 14th facility in less
than six months failed quality standards, a figure that means one-fifth of
Bupa’s 72 facilities are currently subject to a noncompliance notice or
sanctions.
The company, which is headquartered in Britain, announced in
December its chief executive, Richard Bowden, would retire in April.
-----
GPs can now claim higher call-out fees for aged care
The rebate boost also comes with new
items for each patient equivalent in value to the MBS items for standard
consultations
1st March 2019
Patients
in aged care homes will see a $7.60 boost to their rebates for GP care this
week, but a big cut looms on the horizon.
From
1 March, GPs will be able to bill Medicare for a $55 call-out fee when they
make a nursing home visit, followed by new items for each patient equivalent in
value to the MBS items for standard consultations.
It
is being sold as an attempt to end the diminishing financial returns for
doctors under the current rebate structure.
-----
National Budget Issues.
Scott Morrison pledges $2 billion, 10-year boost to Direct Action fund in election climate pitch
By Michael Koziol
February 25, 2019
— 12.15am
The
Morrison government will renew the centrepiece of Tony Abbott's climate change
policy, the Emissions Reduction Fund, with a $2 billion injection over 10
years, as it outlines a plan for meeting Australia's 2030 targets under the
Paris Agreement.
Prime
Minister Scott Morrison will announce the move on Monday as part of a
multi-prong package that will include new measures on energy efficiency, hydro
power and electric vehicles that are understood to be worth nearly another $1.5
billion.
Declaring
his intention to act with "cool heads, not just impassioned hearts",
Mr Morrison will pledge "meaningful, practical action on climate change,
without damaging our economy or the family budget".
-----
GST fix set to punch hole in federal budget
By Shane Wright
March 3, 2019 —
12.00am
Taxpayers
will foot the bill for a billion-dollar cost blowout in the GST deal struck by
Prime Minister Scott Morrison last year to quell ongoing anger in Western
Australia over its share of revenue.
An
update on how $69 billion in GST revenues would be shared between the states
and territories in the coming financial year has confirmed the federal
government would need to make a substantial top-up to its payments to WA.
WA's
share of the GST fell to 30c for every dollar of the tax collected within the
state in 2014, prompting a long-running and bipartisan campaign for GST
"justice". Allocations remained low despite WA going into recession
at the end of the mining construction boom.
-----
The government parenting program turning librarians into snitches
By Jacqueline Maley
March 3, 2019 —
12.00am
Everybody
likes 1984, or Animal Farm, but for my money, the best George
Orwell book is his memoir Down and Out in Paris and London, in which our
hero plays the original poverty tourist in Paris, where he works as a
dishwasher (the French word, plongeur, is far more noble) and in the UK,
where he lives as a tramp.
Orwell’s
book was rejected by several publishers. When it was finally published, in
1933, it was well reviewed, but upset some people. Orwell’s humanisation of the
poor was subversive, as were his observations about social attitudes towards
them.
“We
know that poverty is unpleasant; in fact, since it is so remote, we rather
enjoy harrowing ourselves with the thought of its unpleasantness,” he wrote.
“But
don't expect us to do anything about it.”
-----
Health Issues.
Voluntary assisted dying: turning law into clinical practice
Authored by
Nicole MacKee
WHEN
Victoria’s Voluntary Assisted Dying Act
2017 (Vic) comes into force on 19 June 2019, Dr Claire Hepper, a GP in
rural Victoria with a special interest in palliative care, will be a
conscientious objector.
“My
objection will be in the form of not being the coordinating or consulting
practitioner,” Dr Hepper told InSight+. “I will always provide information to all
patients who raise the issue of voluntary assisted dying (VAD) with me and, the
part that is probably more important, commit to symptom control and support of
the patient and family pre-death and the family post death and in their
bereavement.”
Dr
Hepper said the introduction of the VAD legislation will have a “huge impact”
on GPs, particularly those in regional and rural areas.
-----
Mother's plea to politicians after firefighter son died in Swiss euthanasia clinic
By Nicole Precel
Updated February 24, 2019
— 10.43pmfirst published at 6.29pm
Victorian firefighter Troy Thornton,
who had multiple system atrophy, travelled with his wife Christine to a Swiss
euthanasia clinic.
The
mother of veteran Victorian firefighter Troy Thornton who died in a Swiss
euthanasia clinic is calling on Australian politicians to "take
notice" of his story.
Barbara
Spencer said her 54-year-old son, who had multiple system atrophy - a
progressive neurodegenerative disorder - had to travel to a clinic in
Switzerland because he wasn't considered as having a terminal illness under
Victorian law.
-----
Health experts lead Victorian royal commission into mental health
- 1:09PM February 24, 2019
Four health stalwarts will lead Australia’s first royal commission
into mental health.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced on Sunday public policy
expert Penny Armytage as the chair, to work alongside Associate Professor Alex
Cockram, Professor Allan Fels and Professor Bernadette McSherry as the inquiry
commissioners.
“The mental health system is in so many ways broken and that only
through a royal commission, our highest and most formal way of making inquiry
into important issues, can we hope to have the answers and a plan to move us
forward,” Mr Andrews said.
-----
Baby videos, chiros, docs and why AHPRA is struggling
COMMENT: The system works in peer
review, meaning chiros are judging chiros, writes Australian Doctor editor Paul
Smith
Get your very own stick that goes
"click" for only $850.
Paul Smith
25th February 2019
Last
week, a video on Facebook surfaced showing a chiropractor performing
‘spinal manipulation’ on a newborn using a device called the ‘activator’ — or,
as those with medical training sometimes call it, the “stick that goes click” because that seems to be the only
thing it actually does.
At
one point, Melbourne chiropractor Andrew Arnold uses his thumbs to push down on
the baby’s tailbone, which he explains is about “moving the cerebrospinal
fluid”, before using the stick that goes click along the baby’s spine.
If
you want one, activators retail for about $850.
-----
Greg Hunt accuses Bill Shorten of ‘Medi-scam’ over heart checks
- 12:04AM February 26, 2019
Health Minister Greg Hunt has accused Bill Shorten of launching a
“Medi-scam” months out from the federal election, after the Opposition Leader
called for campaign donations based on a claim that only a Labor government
would deliver heart health checks.
The major parties announced within one hour of each other on
Sunday morning that they would fund a new Medicare item for heart health
checks, which will help at-risk Australians and GPs better detect and manage
heart disease. By that afternoon the ALP had sent an email to voters on behalf
of Mr Shorten suggesting the checks would not be introduced unless Labor won
the May poll, triggering claims from government of a Mediscare 2.0 campaign.
“We know this will save lives. But we can’t make our heart health
checks a reality if Australia has to face another three years of Liberal
attacks against our hospitals and Medicare,” the email states.
-----
'My ED is in crisis mode': doctors warn state's lack of planning risking patient care
By Esther Han
February 27, 2019
— 6.38pm
The
NSW government has been on a $8.5 billion hospital building blitz, but
the peak doctors' group says "a lack of strategic vision" has
led to workforce shortages and swamped EDs, risking patient care.
Ahead
of the March poll, the Australian Medical Association NSW (AMA) has released an
extensive list of election priorities, saying while it commends the government
for building and upgrading hospitals, overworked doctors were struggling to
cope with the influx of patients.
"Nearly
every day sees my ED operating in ‘crisis mode’ ... there always seems to be an
explanation provided by hospital management or the Ministry of Health [such as]
‘it’s flu season, it’s Monday ... there's an ice epidemic," a doctor is
quoted in the AMA's report.
-----
After 16 reviews we know how to fix healthcare, experts say
Updated Feb 28, 2019 — 2.23pm, first published at 2.14pm
After
16 national reviews in 35 years, the road map for improving the healthcare
system is well known and government should get to work implementing necessary
structural reforms.
That's
the blunt message from think tank the Australian Health Policy Collaboration,
which says experts keep agreeing with each other that the system is too complex
and under stress but have avoided creating a body to lead long-term change at a
national level.
The
report by the group, part of Victoria University's Mitchell Institute, says while the
country spends more than $180 billion a year on healthcare, just 1.34 per cent
goes to reducing health risks and preventing disease.
After
Labor said this month it would create a permanent health reform
commission if it wins the federal election, the report says decades of
reviews have shown health service design, funding and operations are the major
contributors to inefficiency.
-----
Medibank urges Labor to review whole health sector
- 12:00AM March 1, 2019
Australia’s largest private health fund, Medibank, has warned
Labor not to restrict its planned review of the sector, saying it will be
“fundamentally flawed” if it doesn’t widen the lens beyond insurers.
Medibank, in its submission to Labor’s planned Productivity
Commission review of private health insurers, says it is imperative that the
review results in meaningful and wide-ranging reforms that address the cost
drivers in the healthcare system.
“A Productivity Commission review that concentrates on private
health insurance in isolation from the broader private healthcare system will
be fundamentally flawed and incapable of examining the issues and reforms
necessary for sustainably lower premium increases in the long-term,” the
insurer said.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has proposed a Productivity
Commission review of the sector to support his policy to cap annual health
insurance premium increases at 2 per cent for the first two years of a Labor
government, should he win the election in May. Medibank chief executive Craig
Drummond said the only sustainable way to protect customers was through ongoing
reform of the health system.
-----
https://www.afr.com/lifestyle/health/what-too-much-television-does-to-an-older-brain-20190228-h1bua3
What too much television does to an older brain
Updated Mar 1, 2019 — 1.38am, first published at 1.00am
While
we have all been focused on how too much television can stunt children's
development, its effect on the older adult brain has been largely ignored.
Now,
British researchers have taken the first serious steps into this complex
territory and have shown that too much television time is associated with a
decline in cognitive function in people over 50.
It
showed the more people watched, the more their cognition was likely to decline.
-----
One third of seriously mentally ill applicants have been rejected for NDIS, data reveals
- 4:14PM February 28, 2019
More than one-third of people with serious mental illnesses who
have applied for the $22 billion National Disability Insurance Scheme have been
rejected, almost three times the ineligibility rate across all other disability
groups.
The new data, given to a parliamentary inquiry by the agency in
charge of the scheme’s rollout, has highlighted an ongoing problem about the
way psychosocial disabilities were shoehorned into the scheme without any
testing.
Federal and state governments have already set aside almost $300
million in additional funding to support mentally ill people who have not
managed to gain access to the disability scheme.
-----
Health system ‘caught short’ by 2018 flu fears
- 12:00AM March 1, 2019
Fears of another bad flu season caused havoc in the health system
last winter, with an initial shortage of vaccines, confusion over different
products and rules, and some people left without protection, an official review
has found.
Australia’s 2017 flu season, the worst since the 2009 pandemic,
left more than 1200 people dead and sparked a rush on vaccines for the 2018
season.
Despite reassurances that the threat had diminished and Australia
would be better prepared, the surge in demand exposed cracks in the health
system that undermine the nation’s ability to prevent another pandemic.
-----
Specialist fees published online in exorbitant out-of-pocket crackdown
By Kate Aubusson
March 2, 2019 —
12.00am
Doctors
charging patients thousands of dollars out-of-pocket have been put on notice,
with the federal government promising to publish their fees for procedures to
expose exorbitant billing.
The
Morrison government has pledged to build a searchable website that will list
individual specialists' fees for specific services to help patients avoid “bill
shock” and crackdown on doctors charging egregious out-of-pocket sums.
The
first specialists under the microscope will be gynaecologists, obstetricians
and doctors working in cancer services - including urological surgeons and
breast cancer specialists - following multiple reports of price-gouging
within these professions.
-----
Women are dying because of endemic health system discrimination
Women are poorly represented in politics, head too few companies
and get paid less than men. Now we can reveal how even the health system
discriminates against them, costing lives.
Sue Dunlevy
News Corp
Australia Network March 3, 20198:00am
A scandalous gender discrimination in healthcare means women
having a heart attack are being misdiagnosed, given substandard care and are
twice as likely to die shortly after a big heart attack as men.
Today
News Corp Australia is calling out this unconscious bias in the system which
has an incalculable human impact as families lose their mothers and chief
carers.
And
we can report that the Labor Party has pledged to provide $300,000 to help
tackle the problem by funding a national education campaign on women and heart
disease run by the Heart Foundation.
-----
International Issues.
Donald Trump to delay China tariff hike after "substantial progress"
By Jacob
Greber
Feb 25, 2019 — 10.16am
Washington
| Donald Trump said he would delay an increase in US tariffs
scheduled for this week on $US200 billion ($280 billion) of Chinese imports,
after reporting "substantial progress" in trade talks between the two
sides.
Negotiators
extended four days of negotiations last week over the weekend.
Mr
Trump said progress was made on "important structural issues including
intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services,
currency, and many other issues".
-----
Warren Buffett warns of natural or human-made 'megacatastrophe' with huge losses
By Erin Brodwin
Feb 25, 2019 — 8.35am
Record-breaking
investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett released his yearly letter on Saturday US time, and in it he
warned about the prospect of "The Big One" – a major hurricane, earthquake, or cyber attack that
he said "will dwarf hurricanes Katrina and Michael".
"When
such a megacatastrophe strikes, we will get our share of the losses and they
will be big – very big," Buffett wrote.
Although
such a disaster could happen tomorrow or decades from now, one thing is sure,
he said: the catastrophe is inevitable. Yet Buffett said he had a plan for such
an outcome.
-----
'Beyond arrogance': Warren Buffett takes veiled swipe at Trump in annual letter
By Jonathan Stempel, Trevor Hunnicutt and Jennifer Ablan
February 25, 2019
— 10.28am
Warren
Buffett has appeared to fault US President Donald Trump for taking too much
credit for the nation's economic growth, while acknowledging that market
conditions are making it tough for his Berkshire Hathaway Inc to find more big
companies to buy.
Buffett
lamented these states of affairs in his widely-read
annual letter to Berkshire shareholders.
Accompanying
the letter was more bad news, that sinking stock prices and a big writedown for
the company's Kraft Heinz Co investment fueled a $US25.39 billion ($35.6
billion) fourth-quarter net loss, and caused Berkshire to post its lowest
annual profit since 2001.
-----
Democrats' lurch to the left is a step in the right direction
By Nicole Hemmer
February 24, 2019
— 11.07pm
Though
more than 18 months away, the 2020 presidential race is well under way in the
United States.
With
an unpopular Republican incumbent, the Democratic Party is attracting a huge
field, with at least 10 major candidates already declared and undoubtedly more
to enter in the coming months. It is an ethnically diverse field, full of
women, ranging from two 37-year-olds, just old enough to run, to two candidates
who will be over 70 by election day.
But
as diverse as the slate of candidates is, it is relatively united in its vision
for the future: one in which the federal government plays a much larger role in
the economy. From Medicare for All to the Green New Deal to universal
childcare, Democrats are embracing an agenda that sits significantly to the
left of the party in the 1990s and 2000s.
-----
'Concrete steps' for Venezuela to come after US aid blocked at border
By Roberta Rampton
February 25, 2019
— 7.44am
Washington:
US Vice President Mike Pence is set to announce "concrete steps" and
"clear actions" to address the Venezuela crisis when he meets on
Monday with regional leaders in Bogota, Colombia, a senior US administration
official said.
The
official declined to comment on what the new measures would entail ahead of
Pence's speech, to be delivered to a summit of the Lima Group around 10.30 am
on Monday (Washington, DC time) after he meets with Venezuelan opposition
leader Juan Guaido.
Shortly
thereafter, US Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican, posted a photo on Twitter
showing Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega under arrest in the US in a
not-so-subtle threat to take Maduro out militarily.
-----
No one annoyed China’s leadership more than Julie Bishop
- 8:24AM February 25, 2019
It’s an eerie coincidence that former foreign minister Julie
Bishop announced her resignation from parliament in the same week that a ban on
Australian coal shipments to China sent the Australian dollar plummeting.
It’s really important that Australia understands how during the
time Julie Bishop was foreign minister China became very angry with Australia
and decided to “rap us over the knuckles”.
Once people at lower levels in China got the message that
Australia had fallen out with China’s leaders, it was understandable that
Australia would be hit hardest when the leadership began urging curbs on coal
imports.
-----
Fed's Jerome Powell heads to US Congress amid shifting landscape
By Howard
Schneider and Ann Saphir
Updated Feb 26, 2019 — 8.02am, first published at 7.54am
Washington
| Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell worked hard to strengthen ties with
Congress during his first year as head of the US central bank, doubling the
pace of meetings with lawmakers over his predecessors and courting Democrats
and Republicans alike.
The
value of that effort will get a very public test this week when Powell heads to
Capitol Hill for hearings in a political and economic environment that has
shifted dramatically since he last appeared before Congress in July 2018.
Democrats
won control of the US House of Representatives in the November elections, and
some new lawmakers are pushing programs like a "Green New Deal" that
could have long-term implications for the Fed; two members of the Senate
Banking Committee and at least one member of the House Financial Services
Committee may run for president in 2020; and President Donald Trump's public
criticism of the Fed has raised questions about whether its independence has
been compromised.
-----
British Labour leader Corbyn backs fresh Brexit referendum as PM May stands firm
Feb 26, 2019 — 2.50am
London
| British Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn has unexpectedly thrown his support
behind a second referendum on Britain's EU membership, in a move that will
shake up the political calculus of all Brexit factions as they jockey for
position ahead of a crunch round of parliamentary voting on Wednesday.
Mr
Corbyn told a meeting of Labour MPs early on Tuesday (AEDT) that if parliament
wouldn't support his preferred 'soft' version of Brexit - a permanent customs
union with the European Union and a close single-market relationship - then
he'd direct his party to back a parliamentary vote to hold a new referendum.
His
move was likely aimed less at securing a second referendum, which still looks
logistically and politically improbable, and more at stemming further
defections from Labour to the newly formed 'Independent Group' of eight
Labour MPs who broke with Mr Corbyn last week and have championed a fresh
referendum. They've since been joined by three rebel Conservatives.
-----
Russian TV lists 5 nuclear targets in the US after Vladimir Putin's warning
By Andrew Osborn
Updated Feb 26, 2019 — 8.57am, first published at 8.56am
Moscow
| Russian state television has listed US military facilities that Moscow would target in the event of a nuclear strike, and said that a
hypersonic missile Russia is developing would be able to hit them in less than
five minutes.
The
targets included the Pentagon and the presidential retreat in Camp David,
Maryland.
The
report, unusual even by the sometimes bellicose standards of Russian state TV,
was broadcast on Sunday evening, days after President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was militarily ready
for a "Cuban Missile"-style crisis if the United States wanted one.
-----
China's playing mind games, here's how we deal with it
By Peter Hartcher
February 26, 2019
— 12.00am
Is
China's go-slow on Australian coal imports just a routine trade detail, or is
Beijing deliberately inflicting economic punishment on Australia by toying with
a $60 billion export trade?
"Taking
countries in and out of the deep freeze is a well-tested Chinese
strategy," says the former head of Australia's Department of Foreign
Affairs and Trade, Peter Varghese, now chancellor of Queensland University.
And
while he has a personal suspicion, he says in this case that we can't be sure.
And that's no accident. The Chinese Communist Party is playing mind games.
"You are never going to get clarification from the Chinese system of
whether they are signalling something or whether it's a more routine trade
matter," Varghese tells me. "Personally, I think they probably are
trying to signal to Australia.
-----
Marise Payne urges Pakistan to stop turning a blind eye to terror groups
Updated Feb 27, 2019 — 9.05am, first published at 8.57am
Pakistan
needs to do more to crack down on terror groups within its borders, Foreign
Minister Marise Payne says, as tensions between India and its neighbour
dramatically escalate in Kashmir.
Indian
fighter jets flew across the 1971 ceasefire line on Tuesday, launching airstrikes against "terror camps" on
Pakistan's side of the de facto border.
Indian
Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said the attack on Islamic terror group
Jaish-e-Muhammad - which claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing earlier
this month that killed 40 Indian paramilitary officers - had killed a
"very large number" of militants.
-----
A second Brexit referendum is now essential
By Martin Wolf
Feb 27, 2019 — 9.39am
Theresa
May's aim is to convert fear of a no-deal Brexit into acceptance of her bad deal,
which would leave the UK at the EU's mercy.
In
the end, the rhetoric about "taking back control" has come down to a
choice between suicide and vassalage. This march of folly needs to be stopped,
for the UK's sake and Europe's. The only politically acceptable way to do this
is via another referendum. That is risky. But it would be better than sure
disaster.
Let
us count the ways in which what is now happening is quite insane.
In
just over a month, the UK might suddenly exit from the EU. But the government
and business are unprepared for such a departure: to take one example, the
government is still fighting over what farm tariffs to impose.
Such a no-deal Brexit would damage the UK — and the EU. If a no-deal exit did
happen, negotiations would need to restart at once, but in a far more poisonous
and, for the UK, more unfavourable context.
-----
Fed chairman Jerome Powell shoots down big deficit fantasies
By Jacob Greber
Updated Feb 27, 2019 — 7.37am, first published at 5.49am
Washington
| Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has shot down half the
Democrat field of presidential 2020 hopefuls and many Republicans alike by
slamming the idea that "deficits don't matter".
In
testimony to the US Senate in which he also reiterated the central bank's "patient
approach" to future interest rates changes, Mr Powell gave short shrift to
the increasingly widespread idea that there's no problem if US debt gets too
large.
"The
idea that deficits don't matter for countries that can borrow in their own
currencies I think is just wrong," Mr Powell said on Tuesday [Wednesday
AEDT], the first of two days of hearings before Congress.
-----
Companies' $18t debt bubble could spark a devastating global fire sale
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
February 27, 2019
— 10.38am
The
ballooning edifice of corporate debt across the world is of ever lower quality
and potentially more dangerous than it was at the outset of the Lehman crisis,
the OECD club of rich nations has warned.
Global
issuance of corporate bonds has doubled to $US13 trillion ($18 trillion) over
the last decade and standards have deteriorated dramatically, raising the risk
of "fire sales" and a self-feeding chain reaction in times of stress.
"In
the case of a downturn, highly leveraged companies would face difficulties in
servicing debt, which in turn, through higher default rates, may amplify the
effects," said a detailed report by OECD's corporate finance division.
-----
Brexit could be delayed, British PM concedes in latest about-face
By Nick Miller
February 27, 2019
— 2.09am
London: The
UK might not leave the European Union on March 29 after all, British Prime
Minister Theresa May has conceded, revealing a new plan that would allow UK
Parliament to veto a ‘no deal’ Brexit.
In
that case, the government would ask the EU for a “short limited extension” to
its EU membership, May told the House of Commons on Tuesday – an extension that
must be agreed to by all EU nations.
With Brexit just over a month away,
carmakers are preparing for risk and potential opportunities offered by Brexit.
-----
Donald Trump is a 'con man' and 'racist', his ex lawyer Michael Cohen says
Updated Feb 28, 2019 — 9.17am, first published at 6.49am
Washington
| In a day of high political theatre, Donald Trump's former attorney Michael
Cohen described the president as a racist conman and cheat, who is also facing unspecified
criminal allegations that haven't yet been made public.
In
ongoing testimony by Mr Cohen before a House of Representatives committee the former legal "fixer"
to Mr Trump levelled a litany of allegations against the president and his
character.
These
include that Mr Trump knew in advance that WikiLeaks would release hacked
Democratic National Committee emails in 2016; payments of hush money by the
president while in the White House; insults against African American people;
and ordering Mr Cohen to threaten his high school to keep his grades secret.
-----
Hong Kong's property crash could clobber its economy
Shawna Kwan
Updated Feb 28, 2019 — 6.17am, first published at Feb 27, 2019 — 6.40am
Hong
Kong | Real estate is the main game in Hong Kong, and as the drop in housing
prices nears correction territory, concern is mounting about the toll the
downturn will exact on the city's economy.
Home values in the world's most expensive
property market have fallen about 9 per cent from their August peak as the
China-US trade war and potential rate hikes hurt consumer confidence.
While
the likes of JPMorgan say prices will bottom this quarter, Jones Lang LaSalle
says there's worse to come, forecasting home values will slump a further 15 per
cent in 2019.
-----
Pakistan says it shot down Indian jets, carried out air strikes in Kashmir
James
Mackenzie and Alasdair Pal
Updated Feb 27, 2019 — 10.27pm, first published at 10.21pm
Islamabad
/ New Delhi | Pakistan carried out air strikes and shot down two Indian jets
on Wednesday, Pakistani officials said, a day after Indian warplanes struck
inside Pakistan for the first time since a war in 1971, prompting several world
powers to urge both sides to show restraint.
Both
countries have ordered air strikes over the last two days,
the first time in history that two nuclear-armed powers have done so, while
ground forces have exchanged fire in more than a dozen locations.
Tension
has been elevated since a suicide car bombing by Pakistan-based militants in
Indian-controlled Kashmir killed at least 40 Indian paramilitary police on
February 14, but the risk of conflict rose dramatically on Tuesday when India
launched an air strike on what it said was a militant training base.
-----
The world economy may have already hit rock bottom, says Goldman Sachs
By Malcolm Scott
February 28, 2019
— 8.10am
The
global economy may have already bottomed out, according to Goldman Sachs chief
economist Jan Hatzius.
While
growth remains soft, Goldman's current activity indicator in February is
slightly above the downwardly-revised December and January numbers.
'Some
green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth will pick up from
here,' Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note dated February 26.
-----
Michael Cohen's testimony: embarrassing for Trump but far from devastating
By Matthew Knott
February 28, 2019
— 10.06am
New
York: As Donald Trump was in Vietnam trying to halt the rise of a new
nuclear state, the President's former personal lawyer was back home hurling
verbal hand grenades at his one-time boss.
Michael
Cohen's appearance before Congress was such a big deal in the US capital that
bars opened early so people could watch it on big screens.
Expectations
were high among Democrats that this would be a politically disastrous day for
Trump.
Cohen,
after all, served as Trump's right-hand man for a decade: if anyone could dish
the dirt on Trump this was the guy.
-----
Warren Buffett may have just changed his investing philosophy
By Stephen Bartholomeusz
February 27, 2019
— 7.20pm
For
nearly 30 years, Warren Buffett has used book value as the benchmark for the
value Berkshire Hathaway has created each year. In his always-anticipated
letter to shareholders issued at the weekend, however,
he has abandoned it in favour of a focus on the group’s share price.
That’s
despite saying that markets can be "extremely capricious" and noting
that Berkshire Hathaway’s share price had routinely experienced one-day fluctuations
of $US2 billion ($2.8 billion) and – in the fourth quarter of last year when
the US markets were plummeting -- up to $US4 billion in a day in the value of
its $US173 billion equity portfolio.
The
shift caused a stir among Buffett’s legions of acolytes, some of whom
interpreted it as Buffett abandoning the value-investing style that made him
the world’s most famous investor and delivered Berkshire compound annual gains
in its share price of more than 20 per cent over more than half a century.
-----
'Sometimes you have to walk,' Trump admits as talks collapse
Feb 28, 2019 — 7.06pm
Talks
between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un to end the stand-off on the Korean
Peninsula collapsed on Thursday after the North Korean leader refused to give
up all his nuclear weapons and demanded the United States lift economic
sanctions against the isolated country.
"Sometimes
you have to walk and this was just one of those times," Mr Trump said
after talks between the two leaders ended abruptly in Hanoi, although he
insisted it was a "friendly" walk.
He
said the two shook hands after the two-day summit. However, a signing ceremony
and lunch between the two leaders was cancelled.
-----
https://www.afr.com/news/world/us-economic-growth-slows-moderately-in-fourth-quarter-20190301-h1buvi
US economic growth slows moderately in fourth quarter
Lucia
Mutikani
Updated Mar 1, 2019 — 2.51am, first published at 2.45am
Washington
| The US economy slowed less than expected in the fourth quarter amid solid
consumer and business spending, leaving 2018 growth just shy of the Trump
administration's 3 per cent annual target.
The
Commerce Department's gross domestic product (GDP) report offered the latest
assessment of the impact of President Donald Trump's economic policies,
including deregulation, tax cuts, increased government spending and tariffs
aimed at securing more favourable trade deals.
Trump
has touted the economy as one of the biggest achievements of his presidency and
declared last July that his administration had "accomplished an economic
turnaround of historic proportions".
-----
China trade war cost tops $US40b in lost US exports
Shawn Donnan
and Jordan Yadoo
Updated Mar 1, 2019 — 3.55am, first published at 3.44am
Washington
| Chinese retaliation against President Donald Trump's tariffs is hitting US
exporters harder than their Chinese counterparts and costing the US the
equivalent of about $US40 billion ($56 billion) a year in lost exports,
according to a new study that highlights the mounting costs to the US economy
of the trade war against China.
US
tariffs imposed last year on some $US250 billion in imports from China slowed
shipments of the targeted products to US shores, according to findings from the
Institute of International Finance published earlier this year.
Now,
a new IIF study of China's retaliation has found that counter-tariffs had a far
more severe impact on US exports, leading to a collapse in many of the roughly
900 categories of targeted American products.
-----
Pakistan will release Indian pilot captured after air strike as 'peace gesture'
Joanna
Slater, Shaiq Hussain and Niha Masih
Updated Mar 1, 2019 — 10.15am, first published at 10.05am
New
Delhi | Pakistan says it will release an Indian fighter pilot it
captured Wednesday, easing the immediate risk of further conflict between India
and Pakistan after the two nuclear-armed rivals engaged in their most dangerous
military encounter in decades.
Calling
it a "peace gesture," Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan told
Parliament on Thursday that the pilot would be released on Friday.
The announcement lowered tensions on the subcontinent and
allayed fears that India and Pakistan could be sliding toward war. In recent
days, world leaders have called on both countries to step back from outright
conflict after they engaged in tit-for-tat airstrikes and their first aerial
combat in nearly 50 years.
-----
The US is living in an economic la-la land
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
March 1, 2019 —
11.11am
The
global savings glut is drying up. The long era of seductively abundant capital
is drawing to a close, to be replaced by a ferocious battle for scarce funding.
This is going to be painful for those countries with public debt ratios hitting
100 per cent of GDP that rely on constant flows of imported capital.
Japan
has been able to defy gravity for two decades with debt ratios rising to 240
per cent of GDP because it is the world's top external creditor, commanding
$US3 trillion ($4.2 trillion) of net assets. America enjoys no such luxury. Nor
does Britain.
In
their infinite wisdom, America's opinion elites and both political parties have
chosen this moment to embrace the beguiling notion that public debt does not
matter after all, so long as you can print your own currency.
-----
Canada to start extradition of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou
Natalie Obiko
Pearson and Josh Wingrove
Updated Mar 2, 2019 — 7.53am, first published at 7.46am
Vancouver
| Canada has officially ordered the start of extradition hearings against Huawei Technologies chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou,
in a proceeding that promises to be long and politically explosive.
Canada's
Department of Justice issued a formal "authority to proceed" after reviewing the US request
that Meng be handed over to face fraud charges, according to a statement. The
US alleges she lied to banks to trick them into processing transactions for
Huawei that potentially violated Iran trade sanctions.
"The
decision follows a thorough and diligent review of the evidence in this
case," according to the statement. "The Department is satisfied that
the requirements set out by the Extradition Act for the issuance of an
Authority to Proceed have been met and there is sufficient evidence to be put
before an extradition judge for decision."
-----
Saudi Arabia revokes citizenship of bin Laden heir
By Jon Gambrell
March 2, 2019 —
11.12am
Dubai: Saudi
Arabia announced has revoked the citizenship of Hamza bin Laden, the son of the
late al-Qaeda leader who has become an increasingly prominent figure in the
terror network.
There
was no immediate explanation why the royal decree stripping his citizenship,
signed in November, was only becoming public now. However, the announcement
comes after the US
government offered a $US1 million reward for information leading to his
capture as part of its "Rewards for Justice" program.
The
kingdom similarly stripped Osama bin Laden's citizenship in 1994 while living
in exile in Sudan when Hamza bin Laden was just a child. Where the younger bin
Laden is now remains in question.
-----
Kalashnikov gave insurgents a cheap gun. Now it has a killer drone.
By Liz Sly
March 3, 2019 —
12.15am
Abu
Dhabi: The Russian company that gave the world the
iconic AK-47 assault rifle has unveiled a kamikaze drone that may similarly
revolutionise combat by making sophisticated drone warfare technology widely
and cheaply available.
The
Kalashnikov Group put a model of its miniature exploding drone on display this
week at a major defence exhibition in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab
Emirates, where the world's arms companies gather every two years to show off
and market their latest wares.
Planes were temporarily grounded at
Heathrow on Tuesday after a reported drone sighting, weeks after another major
airport was grounded in a similar incident with no arrests.
-----
I
look forward to comments on all this!
-----
David.
