May 2, 2019 Edition.
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The election campaign is rolling on and seems, at the present, to be a contest which becomes more and more willing and aggressive as each day passes. An amazing number of candidates have been kicked out for racism, homophobia etc. They really seem to be a collection of twits - both on the Lib and Labor side! The health debate just revealed the power of the Pharmacy Guild to stifle sensible change!
In the US we are seeing a debate about impeachment flare. It will be interesting to see just where this all goes. It is totally clear that Trump worked with the Russians to win the election, and what flows from that we all need to just wait and see…It seems the AG has been less than frank with what exactly Mueller said!
Brexit is still totally off the rails and the on-going sadness re Sri Lanka is just awful.
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Major Issues.
Investors rush for low-cost BetaShares ETF
- 12:00AM April 22, 2019
BetaShares CEO Alex Vynokur is quietly happy with his ultra-low-cost Australian shares exchange-traded fund.
Having exceeded $500 million in funds under management within 11 months since inception in May 2018, the BetaShares Australia 200 ETF has seen the fastest growth of any Australian ETF in history.
“It’s everything we were hoping for,” Mr Vynokur tells The Australian.
The rapid uptake of A200 is probably due to the fact that it allows investors to buy a diverse portfolio of Australian shares in a single trade and any gains aren’t whittled away by high fees.
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Why GM must be in our toolkit to save endangered island species
By Karen Poiani
April 22, 2019 — 12.00am
If the global decline in wildlife populations is worrying, then the situation on the world’s 400,000 islands is especially troubling. Native island communities and species all over the planet are at risk from invasive species such as rodents, which bring new disease threats and devastating ecosystem changes, often directly preying upon native animals.
Australia and New Zealand know this better than most: rats and mice have already caused the extinction of five bird species on Australia’s Lord Howe Island and continue to threaten 70 species including the endangered Lord Howe Woodhen, and the endangered Yellow Eyed Penguin in New Zealand.
Eliminating invasive species from islands offers hope for saving biodiversity and will be among the priorities discussed at the first Island Resilience Forum in Dallas, Texas, this week.
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Like teens we all signal our virtues, the economy relies on it
By Ross Gittins
April 22, 2019 — 12.15am
I’m troubled by the fashion of accusing others of “virtue signalling”. This world could use more virtue and less vice. And if people want others to see their virtue, well, there are worse sins.
Usually, it’s an accusation hurled at those on the other side of the political fence as a way of impugning their motives. They’re not genuinely virtuous, they just want people to think they are when they’re not.
They want to be seen as better than we are. They want me to feel guilty for not being as good as them, but I’m not buying that. I may be motivated by self-interest in the government policies I advocate, but so are they – they’re just pretending otherwise.
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What's missing for a market 'melt up'
Although there are understandable reasons for optimism about the future, two uncertainties risk being assumed away in a melt-up scenario, and they don't relate to the trade and political issues that have persisted for so long and that investors feel comfortable sidelining.
Mohamed A. El-Erian
Apr 22, 2019 — 1.22pm
It is no surprise that the possibility of a market "melt up" for the rest of 2019 is becoming a more common refrain among investors.
After all, the unsettling volatility of the fourth quarter of 2018 is well within the rear-view mirror, and the first four months of this year have delivered ample gains with declining volatility.
Although there are understandable reasons for this optimism about the future, two uncertainties risk being assumed away in this melt-up scenario, and they don't relate to the trade and political issues that have persisted for so long and that investors feel comfortable sidelining.
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Investing basics: navigating the ETF universe
Emma Rapaport | 18 Apr 2019
Since exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) began trading in Australia 20 years ago, there has been a proliferation of different types.
Today, more than 200 exchange-traded products trade on the Australian Securities Exchange, some tracking broad market indexes, while others offer exposure to popular trends such as cybersecurity.
This plethora of competing products is making it harder for investors to make informed decisions for not all ETFs are created equal.
Following is a guide to the different types of ETFs so you can select the right funds for your portfolio.
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Australians embracing robo-advisers
Apr 23, 2019 — 12.01am
Australians are increasingly comfortable with the idea of getting financial advice generated by artificial intelligence, or "robo-advice", with 30 per cent of adults willing to trust bots with their money, according to new research commissioned by strategy consulting firm Thinque.
The survey of more than 1000 adults found that increased scrutiny of the behaviour of financial services professionals in the banking royal commission, meant Australians were more open to the idea of removing humans from the equation.
"Increasingly we are entrusting robots in the banking and finance sector, as many Australians’ distrust in human advisers has mushroomed," Thinque founder Anders Sorman-Nilsson said.
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No logic in our nuclear allergy
- 12:00AM April 23, 2019
How depressing to see Scott Morrison having to backtrack after making the obvious and sensible remark that nuclear power shouldn’t be off the agenda if it stacks up economically.
Labor environment spokesman Tony Burke bristled at the idea that the most reliable and clean form of energy the world knows should even be discussed. “Nuclear power is against the law in Australia,” he chirped, as if being the only G20 nation to have such a ban were a good idea.
It’s embarrassing to tell people in the US that nuclear energy is banned in Australia. “But don’t you export uranium?” “Umm, yes,” I say, “but flower power has more adherents than nuclear among Australia’s political class.”
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Solar-power plane could fly forever
- The Times
- 12:00AM April 24, 2019
Scientists have developed a solar-powered aircraft that uses an innovative propulsion system to stay in the skies indefinitely.
The pilotless Phoenix aircraft stays aloft using helium and pumps compressed air out of a rear-facing vent to generate thrust. A prototype completed test flights in Portsmouth, southern England, and could be commercially viable within years.
The aircraft is designed to eventually fly at 70,000ft and could be used to release micro-satellites or take part in surveillance. Its backers said it would be far cheaper to build and operate than conventional drones.
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The case for and against an RBA rate cut
There are good arguments for and against an imminent interest rate cut.
John Kehoe and Matthew Cranston
Apr 26, 2019 — 3.12pm
Surprisingly weak inflation reported this week for the March quarter has prompted bets among market economists that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates as soon as May.
Governor Philip Lowe faces an agonising decision; keep the overnight cash rate on hold at a record low 1.5 per cent or reduce the key borrowing rate during the federal election campaign. There are good arguments for and against an imminent rate cut.
The case for a rate cut
• Inflation is weak
The RBA's narrative that a strong employment market will ultimately spur inflation is breaking down. The RBA has persistently undershot its 2-3 per cent inflation target for almost all of the past five years. The annual headline consumer price index was just 1.3 per cent in the year to March, below market expectations of 1.5 per cent. Most worryingly, headline CPI was flat in the quarter.
The RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation, which excludes volatile movement in prices such as petrol and food, was only 1.6 per cent. Falling rents and the cost of new homes are weighing down prices, but the weak price pressure is broader across the economy.
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Just how worried should you be about the sharemarket?
Don't be fooled by the doomsayers – look a bit deeper and you'll find sound arguments to justify where equities are heading.
James Weir
Apr 26, 2019 — 4.48pm
Notice how much fear-mongering there has been recently, scaring investors into thinking markets have never been so uncertain? The reasons you should be worried are well-worn: geopolitical tensions, elections, stretched valuations, extended cycles, the inverted yield curve.
If you didn’t know any better, it’s enough to leave you thinking the best solution would be to find shelter and stock up on tinned food.
But much of this is absurdly one-sided – you just have to look a bit deeper to find sound arguments to justify where sharemarkets are trading.
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Liberalism is under attack but we need it more than ever
By Stan Grant
April 27, 2019 — 12.15am
Great interviewers can cut to the core of an idea or an issue with just one question. I was reminded of that this week when I appeared on Richard Fidler’s Conversations program discussing my latest book, Australia Day.
Conversations has become an ABC radio institution because it is that rare program that isn’t afraid to discuss big ideas, that eschews the cheap gotcha moment to open up discussion rather than shut it down. It is a program essential to our democracy.
Officials say they have identified eight out of the nine attackers behind Sri Lanka's Easter Sunday bombings, that killed more than 350 people.
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'This could be the most critical time in human history'
While a number of CEOs in America question corporate capitalism, banker Keith Tuffley sees money making opportunities in transitioning to a net-zero emissions economy.
Apr 27, 2019 — 12.00am
When a string of high profile American chief executives this month went public with their deep seated concerns about corporate capitalism it was no surprise to investment banker and climate warrior Keith Tuffley.
He had seen all this soul searching before. The questioning of the primacy of shareholder value and the focus on profits ahead of all other social factors had been part of his world for years.
Tuffley actually began questioning the future of capitalism six years ago. He left his lucrative job at Goldman Sachs in London to complete a masters degree in sustainability leadership at Cambridge University.
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Federal Election.
PM faces more questions on water
Colin Brinsden
Apr 21, 2019 — 6.28pm
Scott Morrison can expect further questioning on the coalition's handling of the Murray-Darling Basin plan when he returns to the federal election campaign trail on Monday, as calls for a royal commission grow.
There may have been a truce in the campaign between the prime minister and his Labor rival Bill Shorten in respect of Easter Sunday, but that didn't stop crossbench senators from getting on their soap boxes.
Mr Morrison attended his own church - the Pentecostal Horizon Church in Sydney's Sutherland Shire - for the Easter service, before heading to the Easter Show where he went on the Rock Star ride with his daughters and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack.
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Superannuation battle lines drawn for election
Ben Smythe
Apr 22, 2019 — 1.26pm
With the election date locked in and the battle lines drawn, this election presents itself as a bit of a turf war between self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) and the rest of the superannuation industry.
The Labor party has released a number of proposed changes to superannuation which will likely have a far greater impact on SMSFs than other types of funds. These include a reduction in the annual non-concessional contribution limit to $75,000 (from $100,000), reducing the income threshold to $200,000 (from $250,000) for the additional 15 per cent tax on contributions and the well-publicised changes to franking credits.
The proposed changes to franking credits have received quite a bit of attention but are also somewhat misunderstood. There is a general feeling that Labor is proposing to remove franking credits in general. The changes are actually quite targeted, and designed to stop the refund of franking credits where the taxpayer’s net tax position is 0 per cent.
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Hard yards, not silver bullets, will fix gas crisis
Beyond the supply solutions offered by proposed LNG import facilities in NSW, Victoria and South Australia, there are no silver bullets for the east coast gas crisis beyond finding, appraising and developing big pools of onshore gas.
Apr 22, 2019 — 2.01pm
Don’t tell Tor McCaul that the “Commonwealth Gas Co” recommended by a group of desperate Australian manufacturers might speed a solution to the east coast gas price crisis.
Sure, it sounds like a neat idea. But nothing in gas is that easy.
McCaul is an oil and gas man, through and through. He is the managing director of an emerging driller called Comet Ridge. The son of a geologist and gifted with an oil man’s name, McCaul talks over and again about the need to be respectful and patient with the sandstones and coal seams that currently host his ambitions.
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Dave Sharma warns DFAT is being sidelined
Apr 22, 2019 — 3.38pm
Liberal candidate for Wentworth and former ambassador Dave Sharma has warned that the Department of Foreign Affairs' outdated digital strategy undermines its influence in Australia and abroad.
In a report for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Mr Sharma said his old department's reliance on slow and cumbersome diplomatic cables "increasingly deals it out of policy influence in Canberra".
"Many of the national security agencies don't access or don't bother to read DFAT's cables," he wrote.
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'Dangerous and discredited': Labor pledges to ban gay conversion therapy
By Farrah Tomazin
April 22, 2019 — 11.56pm
Gay conversion therapy could be outlawed in Australia if Bill Shorten wins next month's election, with Labor promising to impose a nation-wide ban on the "dangerous and discredited" practice.
Mr Shorten will also announce a dedicated LGBTI human rights commissioner, $10 million annually in HIV funding and the scrapping of discriminatory clauses in federal laws such as the Fair Work Act, which currently fails to protect trans and intersex employees against adverse action.
Labor's pledge to "end the practice of so-called LGBTIQ conversion therapy" paves the way for a potential showdown with some faith-based groups who are likely to view it as another attack on religious freedom.
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This election is a contest, not a coronation
By Chris Uhlmann
April 23, 2019 — 11.57pm
By now Malcolm Turnbull should be nestled in his apartment overlooking Central Park in New York and no one will be happier to see him on the other side of the planet than Scott Morrison.
The former prime minister’s weekend intervention in the campaign with a series of tweets about the National Energy Guarantee was a stark reminder that if voters focus on the last three years rather than the next three weeks when they cast their ballots then the Coalition loses.
Observers on both sides of the political divide scored the opening salvos to the Coalition on the back of a strong performance by Morrison, slick work by his campaign team and a few ropey turns by the Opposition Leader.
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Ukraine is not the only country with joke politicians
April 24, 2019 — 12.00am
Ukraine has just elected a comedian as president but it is no joke. It raises a serious issue about why voters find mainstream politicians so boring.
There was a time when politicians truly commanded respect. From Winston Churchill to JFK, people listened in earnest to long serious speeches. In Australia, Gough Whitlam's oratory was an inspiration and people stayed glued to the radio listening to Robert Menzies’ weekly radio broadcasts. These leaders could be wickedly funny on occasion but, when they appeared in public, they mostly had their serious hats on.
Yet nowadays voters, especially young people, will not listen to speeches by political leaders. Ukraine is an extreme case but it is hardly unique.
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Far from a contest of ideas, this campaign withers to irrelevance
By John Hewson
April 25, 2019 — 12.00am
For the second time in a dozen years a Coalition government is, according to the polls, facing electoral defeat, easily characterised as “stubborn” and “prejudiced” on key policy issues, a team of (mostly) men of the past, lacking a vision or the policies to back it up.
It was American statesman and diplomat Adlai Stevenson who remarked in a 1963 address to the UN that “ignorance is stubborn, and prejudice dies hard”. He could well have been describing the Coalition.
Fundamental to the Howard government’s demise in 2007 was John Howard’s stubbornness and prejudice on two key issues. These were his unwillingness to say “sorry” for the past mistreatment of our First Australians, and his (now admitted) personal agnosticism on climate, preventing him from ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, even though we had clearly played something of a leadership role, “punching well above our weight”, in the development of that protocol. He remained intransigent despite repeated pressure from his cabinet.
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Reality bites on the campaign
Jennifer Hewett
Apr 25, 2019 — 3.21pm
Campaigning suits Scott Morrison. After all, it’s a lot easier than governing, particularly of a Coalition government that has spent years more focused on fighting itself than on fighting Labor.
So Morrison’s confident demeanour after two weeks is more than just show. He rejects the poll-assigned script of being a prime minister under great pressure and on track to lose government. Instead, he is intent on defining the alternative image of an opposition leader under greater pressure and perhaps, just perhaps, about to lose a supposedly unlosable election.
That’s certainly an optimistic view of this election but Coalition tacticians have been buoyed by Bill Shorten’s political stumbles during the first two weeks of campaigning. That’s even if they acknowledge this has been happening when most voters aren’t paying much attention anyway, a disinterest compounded by the Easter break and Anzac Day.
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If Shorten wins, he will be very busy
This campaign will move into top gear on the weekend. It will become a three-week sprint towards May 18.
Phillip Coorey Political Editor
Apr 26, 2019 — 12.00am
It is legitimate to ponder exactly what the Coalition would do on day one should it win a third term of government.
The immediate task for Scott Morrison would be to cobble together a cabinet from the remains of six years of internal upheaval.
Another would be to try and legislate the tax cuts promised in the budget. Otherwise, it would be pretty much a case of "as you were".
There would, of course, be a new opposition leader to attack. In an interview with The Australian Financial Review en route from Townsville to Darwin this week, Bill Shorten, weeks away from his second tilt at the title, readily conceded he would not be leader if he falls short again.
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'China is more than just a threat': Shorten
Phillip Coorey Political Editor
Apr 26, 2019 — 12.00am
Bill Shorten said a federal Labor government would be less antagonistic towards China, saying not every dealing should be from a position of fear.
Signalling a nuanced shift in regional policy, the Labor leader also said that if elected, Australia would stay closely allied to the United States but also have to become more self-reliant.
Bill Shorten: "We've got to win the election first." AAP
Speaking exclusively to The Australian Financial Review, Mr Shorten said if elected, he would most likely follow convention that dates back to Gough Whitlam and make a visit to Indonesia as part of his first prime ministerial trip abroad.
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'Hope v fear': Shorten's pledge to business
Bill Shorten says Labor could win the election despite its controversial policy agenda, which includes higher taxes on capital and an economy-wide approach to cutting emissions, because "the times suit us''.
Phillip Coorey Political Editor
Apr 26, 2019 — 12.00am
Bill Shorten has told a restive business sector that a Labor government would work with it but not for it. But neither, he said, would it be beholden to the trade union movement.
While his policy platform on industrial relations and company tax was unlikely to change, Mr Shorten said Labor would give business "the tools to have profitable, productive successful enterprises''.
These included a better skilled work force, a settled energy policy, productive infrastructure and, he assured, political stability.
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House prices have further to fall
Jonathan Shapiro Senior Reporter
Apr 26, 2019 — 12.00am
A sharp fall in house prices should not trouble mortgage bond investors but further price declines in Sydney and Melbourne are likely, according to securitisation analysts that have tracked house prices relative to the earnings of full-time workers.
The analysis prepared by National Australia Bank's corporate finance staff for clients showed that while nationwide house prices were in line with average multiples of full-time earnings, Sydney and Melbourne prices would need to fall further to correct to what is considered an average level.
"With price-earnings multiples in the major Sydney and Melbourne markets still above their 10-year averages and comfortably above their bottom 25 per cent quartile levels, further declines should probably be expected," National Australia Bank director Ken Hanton said in a note to clients.
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Bill Shorten's policies fall far short of his goals
Few would argue with the Labor leader's vision of an ambitious nation. But his plans are not the way to get there.
The AFR View Editorial
Apr 26, 2019 — 12.00am
The man who the polls say will be Australia’s next prime minister is clear about what voters should expect at the end of his first term in government. Bill Shorten wants an ambitious Australia, an Australia “writ large”, and voters with lives better than “they ever otherwise would have been”. Who could argue with that? But voters might question Mr Shorten’s plans on how he will get there. It can only be achieved by growing a bigger economic pie for all. That’s not the same as reslicing a stagnant pie to take money from some who might not vote Labor anyway to give to others who might be persuaded to.
Mr Shorten claims in his extended interview with The Australian Financial Review’s political editor Phillip Coorey that Labor’s voter-pleasing social programs are productivity boosters. That’s true in a general sense. Modern economies don’t thrive with uneducated or unhealthy workers, without decent infrastructure or broadband, or by discriminating against productive workers on the basis of gender, race or the like. But these minimums are not enough if Australia is to be as exceptional as Mr Shorten suggests in a competitive and unpredictable world economy. Extracting more money from wealth creators to throw at unreformed health and education systems won’t boost economic growth.
Labor does offer an accelerated investment tax writeoff for business. But like the government’s counter offer of subsidised small business capital, these are mostly second-best policies behind getting the fundamentals right to encourage business to invest in Australian prosperity.
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'He wants as little scrutiny as possible': Shorten under fire for dodging major election debates
By David Crowe
April 26, 2019 — 9.34am
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has launched an election fight over the traditional campaign debates between the competing leaders, accusing Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of seeking a "coronation" from voters without facing scrutiny.
The challenge seeks to dare Mr Shorten into agreeing to a major national debate in addition to debates in Perth on Monday and Brisbane next Friday.
The National Press Club also expressed concern that its proposal for a national debate, provided to all television networks in prime time, had not been taken up by the major parties.
Coalition campaign headquarters triggered the dispute by issuing a statement on Friday morning saying it wanted more debates but Mr Shorten was refusing because he expected voters to "rubber-stamp" him.
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Playing to our strengths: Bill Shorten's vision for Australia
Apr 26, 2019 — 12.05am
The following is an edited extract of an interview with the Opposition Leader Bill Shorten by The Australian Financial Review's Political Editor Phillip Coorey.
Phil Coorey: What is your message from a Shorten Labor government to the business community?
Bill Shorten: I will give you the tools to have profitable, productive, successful enterprises. I will give you a trained workforce, I'll give you productive infrastructure. I'll give you a revitalised bargaining system which sees the emphasis on productivity. I will make sure that the safety net of our healthcare system keeps people healthy, which in turn delivers firm enterprise.
For businesses under $50 million [in turnover] we are matching the government in terms of reducing the corporate tax rate. For businesses who invest in new productive technology we are outbidding the government for your views because we are introducing a new 20 per cent extra tax deduction on day one. In a range of business sectors I'll give them a better research base through university funding.
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Senate could become Bill Shorten’s best friend
Labor leader Bill Shorten (right) with his wife Chloe Shorten (left) during the launch of Labor's policy to lift the equality of Australian women at the Queen Victoria Women's Centre in Melbourne today.
Peter Van Onselen
• April 26, 2019
The Senate could become Bill Shorten’s best friend. With the opposition leader’s tax agenda under significant scrutiny — even though most of it has been publicly known for years — the role of the house of review just might save Shorten from himself.
Australians vote more intelligently than they often get credit for. We know our electoral system and understand that governments don’t always get their way. Not in the upper house where the balance of power is held by minor parties.
Even if Labor wins the election, it can squeal all it likes about the mandate won, yet minor parties in the senate will claim the support they got in the senate is also a mandate to follow their policy scripts — which in the case of a number of the minor parties involves disagreeing with Labor’s plans on negative gearing and franking credits.
If voters think that Shorten’s tax agenda will be blocked then they can use their lower house vote to punish the Coalition for a mix of failures in government — doubling the deficit, changing prime ministers not once but twice, having no serious policy for addressing climate change, you name it.
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Could Bill Shorten be the saviour of capitalism?
By Peter Hartcher
April 27, 2019 — 12.00am
Bill Shorten is campaigning on fairness. He doesn't want to tear down the capitalist system. He wants to save it from its own excesses. Would it be ironic for a former trade union leader to rescue capitalism? "It's happened before," he replies.
He's referring to Bob Hawke. The larrikin president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions went on to preside over the successful rejuvenation of a moribund Australian economy.
Australia, fated to become the land of the "poor white trash of Asia" in the famous presentiment of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, has instead become the most successful developed economy in the world.
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Enriching, equalising, efficient: Why 'heinously unpopular' death taxes could actually be a good idea
By Shane Wright
April 26, 2019 — 12.00pm
If there was a friendless orphan of a tax proposal in Australia's political debate, an inheritance tax would be it.
Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen have labelled as "false news" claims from the Coalition they are considering death duties, and demanded Facebook pull down posts from conservative groups that allege the ALP is coming for voters' inheritances.
A fake Tweet from ACTU secretary Sally McManus claiming Labor's national conference had endorsed such a tax was circulated as "proof" that not only would the ALP tax voters from birth into retirement but also into the great beyond.
But the furore over the fake plans ignores the global debate that is going on around a group of taxes that are part of most nations' suite of revenue raising measures.
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Here's an election promise: we'll waste a shedload of money on infrastructure
By Ross Gittins
April 27, 2019 — 12.00am
The popular view of infrastructure is that we don’t have nearly enough of the stuff, so the more we spend the better for the economy. The sad reality is that every year huge amounts of taxpayers’ money is wasted on infrastructure – and much of the damage is begun in election campaigns.
This is not to deny that well-chosen and executed infrastructure projects contribute significantly to improving the productivity of the economy – its ability to produce more goods and services per unit of inputs of economic resources.
It may even be true that we have a backlog of projects we should be getting on with. But that doesn’t mean we’re not wasting a shedload of money – mainly by building the wrong things in the wrong places.
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Abbott’s struggle illustrates the reactionary dilemma
- 12:00AM April 27, 2019
It may be just one of 151 electorates, but the battle for Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah on Sydney’s affluent north shore has national implications.
Not only is there the very real prospect that a former prime minister could lose his safe Liberal seat to an independent but that independent is campaigning on causes that divide the Right of politics in a way that could unpick more problems for conservatives in the years to come. Especially if Scott Morrison loses the election: a victory would paper over differences, a defeat is likely to bring differences to the fore.
Zali Steggall is a former world champion skier — Australia’s first individual medallist at the Winter Olympics. She’s also a lawyer and has been a social justice activist for years, making her a credible independent progressive candidate against one of the highest profile conservative warriors of his generation.
The dividing lines between progressives and conservatives on the Right of politics have long been a toxic issue. The things that unite them aren’t as strong as they once were. The convergence of economic orthodoxy around free market principles and the role of capital has meant that the social policy issues that divide progressives and conservatives have grown in prominence.
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Labor plans $4 billion childcare overhaul
By Shane Wright
April 28, 2019 — 12.01am
Almost one million working families would have their childcare costs cut by $1200 a year under sweeping changes proposed by the Labor Party as it uses its election war chest to target cost-of-living pressures.
In the biggest policy move by either side during this election, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will reveal on Sunday a $4 billion plan to increase the childcare subsidy available to families with household incomes under $175,000 a year.
Labor would lift the current 85 per cent subsidy for low-income families to 100 per cent for all those earning less than $69,527 in a move it says would save more than $23 a week for 372,000 families.
Under the existing system, the 85 per cent subsidy is then gradually reduced to 50 per cent for families earning under $172,000.
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Royal Commissions And Similar.
Home loans delayed, denied and dearer post-Hayne
Apr 23, 2019 — 12.00am
Strict interpretation of responsible lending laws has created a bottleneck of mortgage applications with massive delays in the approval process contributing to a rise in the cost of credit and vastly reduced borrowing capacity in the post-royal commission environment.
Analysis of more than 30,000 mortgages from online broker Lendi has found approval times have more than doubled for investors over the past 18 months while the wait time for owner-occupiers has increased by more than 50 per cent as the banks demand more information from borrowers.
Lendi managing director and co-founder David Hyman said more the stringent approach from the banks could be traced back to the first hearings of the Hayne royal commission and was adding to the costs of originating and writing loans.
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National Budget Issues.
Credit is becoming harder to get – and that’s a good thing
By Fiona Guthrie and Gerard Brody
April 24, 2019 — 12.00am
Listening to the talk about a credit crunch causing the fall in housing prices and that banks have tightened the screws too hard on their lending practices, one would think the sky is about to fall.
Lax lending standards were a focus of the recent Royal Commission into misconduct in financial services.
Australia has had world-class responsible lending laws since the 2008 global financial crisis, yet they have been routinely ignored.
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Reserve Bank under pressure to cut interest rates days out from election
By Shane Wright
April 24, 2019 — 4.22pm
The Reserve Bank of Australia is under growing pressure to deliver an interest rate cut 11 days out from the federal election after a shock inflation reading sounded fresh warnings that the economy is weakening.
Financial markets now believe there is a 60 per cent chance official interest rates will be sliced to a record-low 1.25 per cent when the RBA gathers on May 7, in what could be the board's most politically charged meeting since the dying days of the Howard government in 2007.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday reported zero increase in consumer prices through the first three months of the year, a lower than expected result that saw the Australian dollar fall and pushed the ASX200 to its highest level in 12 years on expectations of an impending rate cut.
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Vegie price increase is more bitter news for consumers to stomach
By Elizabeth Knight
April 25, 2019 — 12.15am
It was a sharp increase in the cost of vegetables, medical expenses, cars and education that saved the March quarter inflation rate from moving into negative territory. But that’s cold comfort for consumers.
What’s worse for household budgets is that weak petrol prices during the early part of the March quarter have now reversed - and the cost of filling up at the petrol pump is now rising steeply thanks to surging oil prices.
The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq registered record closing highs after a broad-based Wall Street rally on Tuesday, as a number of better-than-expected earnings reports eased concerns about a slowdown.
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Cutting interest rates won’t lift inflation, it will only hurt retirees
- 12:00AM April 27, 2019
Don’t bother cutting rates, it’s pointless.
That 0.0 for the March quarter headline CPI will sit for a long time as a badge of the Reserve Bank’s impotence.
Coming up for three years of the cash rate on hold at the record low of 1.5 per cent, on top of the longest economic expansion in history, and just a week after news of another solid lift in full-time employment, inflation has fallen to zero.
So now economists are clamouring to predict a May rate cut and the headline on the story in The Australian on Wednesday went as far as predicting: “RBA could cut rates four times this year”.
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Health Issues.
Science of being overweight gradually shows hidden complexities
- By Suvi Mahonen
- 12:00AM April 22, 2019
A couple is trying for their first baby. She is maximising her chances — taking multivitamins, cutting down on junk food and ceasing all alcohol.
She does not-too-strenuous exercise, relaxes with meditation, keeps track of her menstrual cycle and knows when it’s best to have intercourse through her smartphone app.
He’s up for the regular sex bit but that’s about it. He drinks, smokes and wears snug Y-fronts despite being overweight — even though he considers himself merely muscly, at worst solid. But research suggests obese men have higher rates of sperm DNA damage, says Andrology Australia director Rob McLachlan.
Sperm of obese men also can be affected by what McLachlan calls epigenetics, where there are changes in the way the DNA is folded, which can affect a gene’s functioning.
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A present-laden kiss from Santa won't make healthcare better
By Ross Gittins
April 23, 2019 — 11.57pm
Whenever voters are asked what are their main issues of concern, one worry always comes top: healthcare. That explains why we’re hearing so much about health in this ever-so-exciting election campaign.
Bill Shorten wants to talk about health because it’s one of the issues voters always regard as better handled by Labor than by the Coalition. (Voters habitually favour the Coalition on running the economy and on taxation, which explains why these are Scott Morrison’s favourite topics.)
But this time the Coalition’s also keen to talk about all it’s done – and is promising to do – on health because it blames Labor’s last-minute social media scare campaign – that the Libs had plans to “privatise” Medicare – for its loss of seats in the 2016 election.
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Health Care Homes - a GP tells his grim story
The anonymous doctor talks about his experience with the controversial policy
24th April 2019
What is it like for a GP working in a Health Care Home? This is the story of one doctor keen to embrace the radical funding reform. It makes for grim reading. At his request, we have kept his identity anonymous.
“It was sold to us as a game-changing reform that would finally free our practice and patients from the restrictions of Medicare.
But 16 months after joining Health Care Homes, it is increasingly clear that the program is not benefiting any of us in our practice.
All we have done is create more work for ourselves. The lump sums given to the practice to care for each chronic disease patient — ranging from $600 to $1800 a year — run out very quickly. It means I spend more time arguing with my practice manager than looking after my patients.
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The nine fixes for the Aussie health system
ANALYSIS: Invest in GP care, tax sugary drinks, cut waste in public hospitals, says Grattan Institute
24th April 2019
By Paul Smith
Despite what the gloom-mongers say, Australian healthcare is not going too bad — life expectancy is at 82.5 years, costs are relatively cheap, actual health outcomes are better than many other comparable countries and, importantly, it's nothing like in the US system.
But with the release this week of a Grattan Institute reform wish list, we have selected nine ideas pitched by its policy experts, ranging from getting GP practices to publish outcomes data to reducing inefficiencies in the high-spending public hospital system.
1. Expand outpatient services and put more of them in the community outside the hospital walls
State government should be encouraged to expand outpatient services in the public system, the institute says. It would reduce the out-of-pocket costs faced by patients.
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Surge in tests spiked costs
Sean Parnell
• 12:00AM April 26, 2019
A surge in mostly bulk-billed ¬pathology tests was behind the unpredicted growth in Medicare expenditure last year, despite efforts to curb unnecessary referrals.
According to the latest Medicare figures, the number of pathology tests in 2017-18 increased by 7.5 per cent on the year before, compared with a previous annual growth rate of just 1.5 per cent. That was the biggest acceleration in the growth rate by category, and double the overall shift in that time.
Labor wants to boost bulk-billing rates in pathology — which have remained steady at about 88 per cent — and also diagnostic imaging, particularly for cancer patients.
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Bad memories and cringeworthy mistakes fester for insomniacs
By Kate Aubusson
April 26, 2019 — 2.00am
Insomniacs are haunted by painful recollections and trivial missteps because their brains aren’t processing emotional distress as they sleep, new research suggests.
Their nighttime awakenings could be interrupting this crucial neurological task, putting them at increased risk of depression and anxiety, Dutch scientists say.
An estimated five to 10 per cent of adults worldwide have insomnia disorders. Australian surveys have shown between 13 and 33 per cent of the adult population have difficulty getting to sleep or staying asleep.
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International Issues.
Bombs kill more than 200 in Easter Day attacks
Ranga Sirilal and Shihar Aneez
Apr 21, 2019 — 6.14pm
COLOMBO | Easter Day bomb blasts at three Sri Lankan churches and three luxury hotels killed more than 200 people and wounded more than 400, hospital and police officials said, following a lull in major attacks since the end of the civil war 10 years ago.
More than 50 people were killed in St. Sebastian's gothic-style Catholic church in Katuwapitiya, north of Colombo, a police official told Reuters, with pictures showing bodies on the ground, blood on the pews and a destroyed roof.
Media reported 25 people were also killed in an attack on an evangelical church in Batticaloa in Eastern Province.
The three hotels hit were the Shangri-La Colombo, Kingsbury Hotel in Colombo and the Cinnamon Grand Colombo. It was unclear whether there were any casualties in the hotels.
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No laughing in Kiev as Zelenskiy becomes president in a landslide
Apr 22, 2019 — 7.37am
Key Points
- Exit polls show comedian Zelenskiy easily wins presidency
- Result is bitter blow for incumbent Poroshenko
- Investors, West and Russia wondering what he will do
- Zelenskiy says win shows anything is possible
Kiev | Ukraine has entered uncharted political waters after exit polls showed a comedian with no political experience and few detailed policies had easily won enough votes to become the next president of a country at war.
The apparent landslide victory of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, 41, on Sunday (Monday AEST) is a bitter blow for incumbent Petro Poroshenko who tried to rally Ukrainians around the flag by casting himself as a bulwark against Russian aggression and a champion of Ukrainian identity.
Two national exit polls showed Zelenskiy had won 73 per cent of the vote with Poroshenko winning just 25 per cent. Early voting data suggested the polls were accurate.
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Donald Trump, the 'Ego Maniac in the Oval' says he's exonerated
Maureen Dowd
Apr 22, 2019 — 7.22am
Washington | When it comes to presidential obstruction, at least Watergate started with a crime. A stupid crime, but a crime.
After 675 days, more than 2800 subpoenas, nearly 500 search warrants, $US30 million ($42 million) spent, endless jaw-jaw on cable and countless whiny Trump tweets, we have come down to one fundamental truth.
And it's the same truth that has been terroriaing us all along: Donald Trump's dirtbag machinations are driven by insane vanity.
The First Narcissist's all-consuming blend of braggadocio and insecurity has turned Washington and its rickety institutions into a dystopian outpost of his id.
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Nothing wrong with Trump camp taking Russian help, says Rudy Giuliani
April 22, 2019 — 7.56am
Washington: Donald Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani insists there was "nothing wrong" with the US President's 2016 campaign taking information from the Russians, as House Democrats pledged stepped-up investigations into campaign misconduct and possible crimes of obstruction detailed in Special counsel Robert Mueller's report .
Giuliani called the Trump campaign's effort to get political help from representatives of the Russian government possibly ill-advised but not illegal.
"There's nothing wrong with taking information from Russians," Giuliani said, referring to a June 2016 Trump Tower meeting involving Trump's son Donald jnr, son-in-law Jared Kushner and former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and a lawyer linked to Russia. The Trump campaign was seeking harmful information on Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
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Goldman Sachs says the Fed is losing its forecasting edge
Joanna Ossinger
Apr 22, 2019 — 4.04pm
Risky assets are reacting more strongly to hawkish monetary shocks from the Federal Reserve in recent years, according to Goldman Sachs. The reason, ironically, is that the Fed is losing its forecasting edge.
The Fed's relative predictive advantage versus private economists has declined in recent years as the higher quality and quantity of forecasters makes it harder for anyone, including Fed staff, to beat the "wisdom of the crowd," Goldman economists including Jan Hatzius and David Choi wrote in a note April 20. It also means that after hawkish monetary shocks, such as a surprise rate hike or indication of higher rates, markets tend to react more negatively and consensus growth forecasts now decline, they said.
They found that "information effects," or reactions caused by the Fed likely having insight that others don't, have mostly gone away.
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If an Australian PM did 1/10th of Trump's alleged acts, he'd be out of office: Kevin Rudd
By Matthew Knott
April 23, 2019 — 6.49am
New York: An Australian prime minister would be forced from office if they commited just a fraction of the questionable acts US President Donald Trump was accused of in the Mueller report, according to former prime minister Kevin Rudd.
Rudd, who currently lives in New York, said special counsel Robert Mueller had presented "quite spectacular" evidence of Trump attempting to obstruct justice in his 448-page report.
"If I as prime minister did 10 per cent of what Trump is alleged to have done in this report you'd be out of office," Rudd told a New York audience last week on the day of the Mueller report's release.
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Islamic State takes responsibility for Sri Lanka bombings
NYT Reporters
Apr 24, 2019 — 7.18am
Colombo | The Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for the Easter Sunday bombings at churches and hotels in Sri Lanka, as the government there raised the number of people killed to 321. The group's Amaq news agency called the bombers "Islamic State fighters."
The government said on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST) that the bombings might have been in retaliation for the killing of 50 people last month at mosques in New Zealand, and that two Islamist extremist groups might have been involved, not one.
In his first national address since the attacks, President Maithripala Sirisena announced major changes to the country's security apparatus.
"I must be truthful and admit that there were lapses on the part of defence officials," Sirisena said.
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ISIS in Sri Lankan revenge attacks after NZ
- 12:00AM April 24, 2019
Islamic State claimed responsibility last night for the Easter Sunday suicide bombings in Sri Lanka that killed 321 people, as the country went into lockdown for a third night amid police reports that a truck and a van carrying explosives were moving through the capital, Colombo.
The terror group gave no evidence for the claim made on its Amaq website just hours after Sri Lanka’s junior defence minister told a special session of parliament that the co-ordinated attacks were payback for the massacre of Muslims in New Zealand last month.
Ruwan Wijewardene said initial investigations had found the worst terror strikes on Sri Lankan soil in more than a decade were “carried out in retaliation for the attack against Muslims in Christchurch”.
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Donald Trump is no Nixon - he's worse
Andrew Coan
Apr 24, 2019 — 11.06am
Special counsel Robert Mueller's report makes one thing clear: Donald Trump is no Richard Nixon. He is worse. And yet Trump seems almost sure to be spared Nixon's fate. This will do severe - possibly irreparable - damage to the vital norms that sustain American democracy. There is still time for Congress and the American people to avert the worst of this damage, but the odds are long and time is short.
Despite his famous protestation to the contrary, President Nixon was a crook. He directed the CIA to shut down the FBI's investigation of the Watergate burglary, in which several of his campaign operatives broke into Democratic National Committee headquarters. He also directed subordinates to pay hush money to subjects of that investigation. He then fired the first special prosecutor appointed to investigate these matters, hoping to protect himself and his senior advisers from possible criminal liability and untold political damage.
For these attempts to obstruct justice, Nixon paid the ultimate political price. When he terminated special prosecutor Archibald Cox, a ferocious public backlash forced him to appoint a widely respected replacement. That was Leon Jaworski, whose dramatic victory at the US Supreme Court forced the release of secret White House tapes that destroyed the last vestiges of Nixon's congressional support. He resigned the presidency days later. Had he failed to do so, impeachment by the House of Representatives and removal by the Senate were all but certain.
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China is still rocky and can't save the West again
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Apr 24, 2019 — 10.05am
China's majestic and elegantly-stable GDP figures are best seen as an instrument of political combat.
Donald Trump says "trade wars are good and easy to win" if your foes depend on your market and you can break them under pressure.
Janus Henderson said China's nominal GDP growth is still dropping. It fell to 7.4 per cent from 8.1 per cent in the last quarter on 2018. Photo: AP
He proclaimed victory when the Shanghai equity index went into a swoon over the winter. This is Trumpian gamesmanship.
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How Trump is killing Republican chances of winning ever again
Jennifer Rubin
Apr 25, 2019 — 8.17am
Washington | President Donald Trump has managed to widen the gender gap and alienate college-educated whites in a way no previous Republican president did.
However, the most problematic development for the GOP in the long term may be the rise of a new generation of voters strongly opposed to the Trumpized Republican Party.
"The Census found that 36 per cent of citizens ages 18-29 reported voting in last year's midterm elections, jumping 16 per centage points since 2014 (when turnout was 20 per cent) and easily surpassing any midterm election since the 1980s.
Turnout also increased sharply among adults ages 30-44, rising from 36 per cent in 2014 to 49 per cent in 2018. While turnout among younger adults still lags that of their elders, last year's election marked a clear break from the past two decades of anemic turnout among the youngest citizens."
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Warren Buffett says most newspapers are 'toast' after ad decline
Katherine Chiglinsky and Gerry Smith
Apr 25, 2019 — 7.27am
New York | Warren Buffett, the man behind a print-media empire that includes the Buffalo News and Omaha World-Herald, doesn't think most newspapers can be saved.
The decline of advertising gradually turned the newspaper industry "from monopoly to franchise to competitive", the billionaire chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. And now most newspapers are "toast".
"The world has changed hugely," Buffett said in the interview with Yahoo Finance, which will serve as the livestream host for Berkshire's shareholder meeting next month.
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Bank of Canada abandons future rate hike talk, cuts growth forecasts
Julie Gordon
Apr 25, 2019 — 7.20am
Ottawa | The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady as expected but removed wording around the need for future hikes and lowered its growth forecast for 2019, cementing the market's view that further increases are off the table for now.
Governor Stephen Poloz, speaking to reporters after the decision on Wednesday (Thursday AEST), said the central bank had shifted to a position of watching and waiting. He did not rule out the
"If there was a new negative disturbance, that would be something that we'd consider as fodder for whether interest rates need to be revised down," Poloz said.
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How we should respond to Mueller report
By Hillary Clinton
April 25, 2019 — 7.37am
Washington: Our election was corrupted, our democracy assaulted, our sovereignty and security violated. This is the definitive conclusion of special counsel Robert Mueller's report. It documents a serious crime against the American people.
The debate about how to respond to Russia's "sweeping and systemic" attack - and how to hold President Donald Trump accountable for obstructing the investigation and possibly breaking the law - has been reduced to a false choice: immediate impeachment or nothing. History suggests there's a better way to think about the choices ahead.
Obviously, this is personal for me, and some may say that I'm not the right messenger. But my perspective is not just that of a former candidate and target of the Russian plot. I am also a former senator and secretary of state who served during much of Vladimir Putin's ascent, sat across the table from him and know firsthand that he seeks to weaken our country.
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Try looking through China's eyes in the Pacific
By Stuart Rollo
April 25, 2019 — 12.00am
Recent news from Washington indicates the US and China may be approaching a deal to end their ongoing trade war. The tit-for-tat implementation of tariffs, initiated last year by the Trump administration, has seen the relationship between the two superpowers sink to what is perhaps its lowest point in decades. While there is some hope that immediate economic conflict can be dampened, underlying regional military tensions continue to escalate unabated.
Beijing's militarisation of the South China Sea has sparked controversy in the region.
The recent announcement that the US would join Australia and Papua New Guinea in developing a new naval base at Manus Island is just one indicator of the regional militarisation that threatens to embroil the US and its allies, including Australia, into a new Cold War with China.
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Trump has just taken the biggest economic gamble of his presidency
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
April 26, 2019 — 10.22am
Donald Trump's double strangulation of Iran and Venezuela is reducing spare capacity in the global oil markets to wafer-thin levels very fast. If anything goes wrong in the geopolitical cauldron of world energy over the next six months, we will discover whether Saudi Arabia really is capable of cranking up an extra 2 million barrels a day of crude.
What we learnt from the rare glimpse of Saudi Aramco's books this month is that the legendary Ghawar field is badly depleted. It cannot pump more that 3.8m barrels a day. This is a first-order shock. The company has always asserted with magisterial confidence that it can produce 5m barrels a day without difficulty.
Jean-Louis Le Mee, from Westbeck Capital, says the physical oil markets are on fire. They are heading for a supply deficit of 1.3m barrels a day by the third quarter even if OPEC matches every barrel of lost oil from Iran sanctions. "These numbers should have every investor worried," he said.
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https://www.afr.com/news/world/us-election/why-america-s-ultra-rich-are-freaking-out-20190426-p51hfi
Why America's ultra-rich are freaking out
Apr 26, 2019 — 11.45pm
Washington | Every other day, it seems, another leading member of America’s capitalist class reveals their angst about the future of a system that has made them stupendously wealthy.
The latest captains of affluence wondering out loud whether capitalism as it stands may be caught in a death spiral include figures such as Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, and hedge-fund giant Ray Dalio.
“I believe that all good things taken to an extreme become self-destructive and that everything must evolve or die. This is now true for capitalism,” wrote Dalio on LinkedIn this week.
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After roller-coaster relationship, no swift invitation to Beijing likely for next PM
By Kirsty Needham
April 27, 2019 — 12.00am
Beijing: At a crowded reception at the Beijing embassy this week, Australia's top diplomat Frances Adamson told the Chinese audience that whatever the election outcome, Australia's national interest lies in a constructive relationship with China.
"Based on equality and mutual respect," she said. "That's something you will hear both sides say time and time again."
With the federal government in caretaker mode, Adamson, secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, was in Beijing to step into the breach at the Belt and Road Forum.
Thirty-seven world leaders attended China's biggest diplomatic event of the year, but no Australian minister.
Adamson was answering unprompted the question on many minds here – after the recent rollercoaster ride in the bilateral relationship, what next?
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China cannot afford the Silk Road, and that is a blessing
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
April 27, 2019 — 10.49am
The one flaw in Xi Jinping's plans for global economic conquest is that China has run out of money. The $US8 trillion ($11.4 trillion) headline figure for the Silk Road is romantic fiction.
The Belt and Road infrastructure initiative - as it has become known since maritime links were added to the original Marco Polo caravan route - made financial sense when China was running a fat current account surplus. This reached 10 per cent of GDP in the final stages of the export boom from 2004 to 2008.
China had to recycle this money back into the global economy much as the US was compelled to recycle its vast surpluses through the Marshall Plan at the end of the Second World War. It was a temporary answer to a temporary distortion in global trade flows.
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China’s Xi paints Belt and Road’s place in a Beijing-led world order
- 1:13PM April 26, 2019
Chinese President Xi Jinping has outlined plans to expand his Belt and Road Initiative into broader economic and social co-operation between signatory countries, stepping up the concept of a Beijing-led global order in contrast with President Trump’s America First stance.
Speaking at the second Belt and Road conference in Beijing today, President Xi said there would be improved transparency and “zero tolerance” for corruption in BRI projects, addressing some of the main criticisms of the concept he first outlined in 2013.
Initially seen as a series of infrastructure projects such as ports, road and railways, to boost China’s trade with Asia, Europe and Africa President Xi’s speech outlined plans to expand it with more people to people exchanges, and expanded co-operation in areas such as science, technology, health and agricultural development.
“We need to promote a global partnership for connectivity,” he said.
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Septuagenarian Commonwealth struggles to keep up as influence dwindles
The Economist
- 12:00AM April 27, 2019
The two women at the top of the Commonwealth are determined to keep it buzzing. One is its titular head, the Queen, who adores the post-imperial cosiness of the club’s 53 members meeting in a grand conclave every two years — and who in turn is revered by many of the Commonwealth’s leaders and people.
The other is Patricia Scotland, a Dominica-born former attorney-general of Britain, who as secretary-general for the past three years has had the thankless task of trying to revive an outfit that, apart from the occasional sporting and heads-of-country jamboree, is widely reckoned to be pretty pointless.
The Commonwealth celebrated its 70th birthday as a modern club of equals yesterday, five days after the Queen’s 93rd. Will it ever again wield real influence in the world, as it did when nudging South Africa and Zimbabwe towards democracy near the end of the past century?
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The i-word: Trump and the American 'impeachment anxiety syndrome'
By Matthew Knott
April 28, 2019 — 12.00am
New York: When America’s founding fathers gathered in Pennsylvania in 1787 they had a lot to sort out.
Should the slave trade be abolished? Who should appoint judges? How should a president be elected? Should it be possible for Congress to remove a president from office and, if so, on what grounds?
The idea that an elected president could be impeached and removed from power was not hugely controversial at the time. After all, the American War of Independence had only recently ended and the founders were determined not to grant the president powers similar to the King of England.
So it was agreed that a president could be impeached by a majority vote in the House of Representatives. He would be removed from office if two-thirds of the Senate members upheld the charges.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
