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I have to say this last few weeks have really felt like the “End Of Times” with disease, fires and floods and so on raining down on us. The feeling is being supported by the sense that the honesty of our political system has basically been trashed. Australia you are really suffering right now..I really hope we can find a way out! The whole system has a smell of corruption to me...
In the US it is worse in my view with the key institutions seemingly determined to utterly corrupt themselves – funny how hegemons fall! Trump is certainly accelerating the process. He is acquitted but guilty as sin I believe!
In Britain they are off down the Yellow Brick Road (they hope) with Brexit done but I fear it will be much harder.
Last China is in lock down because of the coronavirus and the economic consequences for it and the world are as yet unknown! Right now 28000+ cases and 565 deaths we know of!
What a mess…..
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Major Issues.
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Can Scott Morrison regain control of the political agenda?
Tony Walker
Columnist and award-winning foreign correspondent
January 26, 2020 — 11.19pm
Scott Morrison’s address to the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday is sold out. This is hardly surprising given this will provide an opportunity for Canberra’s political class to learn about the Prime Minister’s priorities for 2020 at the beginning of a new decade and a new parliamentary year.
However, more than that, Morrison’s keynote speech will allow us to assess whether a prime minister who has inflicted deep wounds on his credibility due to a failure of leadership over the bushfires is capable of regaining control of the political agenda.
Whether he likes it or not, Scott Morrison is damaged goods politically. Just how damaged will become clearer in the next week or so when Parliament resumes amid a slew of questions about the probity of frontline ministers and Morrison’s own questionable judgment.
But in all of this and separate from day-to-day political jousting there is a much bigger question. It is simply this. As we enter the third decade of the 21st century, is Australia to be condemned to another wasted decade during which the country fails to address its most pressing political and economic issues?
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Prepare for a 'massive bubble' in shares
Jan 28, 2020 — 12.00am
Hedge fund manager Brett Gillespie says the Federal Reserve's reluctance to raise rates and risk causing a recession will eventually create a share market bubble.
Mr Gillespie, the former Tudor and Ellerston macro fund trader who said in 2018 that rising bond rates would shave 20 per cent off the share market, says the game has now changed and the prospect of permanently low bond rates is "permeating through the market".
"The Federal Reserve are going to make a mistake in that they are going to fan a massive bubble. But they are not going to cause a recession," he told The Australian Financial Review.
After a sharp correction in stocks in the final months of 2018, the Federal Reserve, which had signalled it would raise rates further, reversed course in January, a move that triggered a recovery in stocks.
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Why you need to know about modern monetary theory
Inexplicable problems require a whole new kind of economic thinking - and MMT is more logical than you probably think it is.
Jan 28, 2020 — 10.25am
Conventional economics has struggled to explain much of what’s happening in the world today. How can we have record low inflation and interest rates at the same time? How can some governments continue to increase their deficits and yet their bond yields go down and currencies go up? How on earth can you justify negative bond yields?
There is one school of economic thought that purports to have some of the answers, and has been talking about the inevitability of declining interest rates and inflation for years. Modern monetary theory (MMT) uses iron-clad rules of accounting to offer not just plausible but logical explanations for many conundrums that leave orthodox economists scratching their heads.
The first counter-intuitive point MMT makes is that government spending comes first and tax revenue flows from that.
But much of what it says is so radically different to what we’re used to that those same orthodox economists ridicule it.
One of MMT’s biggest problems is its name, which is simply not a good description of what it is.
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I hounded Ros Kelly until she resigned, but Bridget McKenzie's sports rorts are worse
John Hewson
Columnist and former Liberal opposition leader
January 30, 2020 — 12.00am
As leader of the Liberal Party and opposition, I drove the sports rorts scandal against Ros Kelly, the then sports minister in the Keating government, back in 1994. It resulted in her ultimate resignation. The sports rorts scandal involving the current Sport Minister, Bridget McKenzie, is worse.
I was staggered that it took Prime Minister Scott Morrison almost two weeks to begin to deal with McKenzie. This is an open-and-shut case of the abuse of her position for political gain.
I was staggered again on Wednesday by the arrogant way Morrison dispensed with questioning of his handling of the scandal at the National Press Club.
In Ros Kelly's case, at least, there was no doubt that she had the power to make the allocations of the sporting grants that she made. The focus was on Kelly’s poor administration and blatant politics. She made the decisions about the grants on a whiteboard, then erased them.
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Religious discrimination bill gives Australians 'right to be a bigot'
By Judith Ireland
January 30, 2020 — 5.29pm
Proposed religious discrimination laws could make it legal for a boss to tell a gay worker "being gay is a form of brokenness", or a childcare provider to tell a single mother "God will judge you harshly for taking away the child's right to have a father".
As public submissions close on the second draft of the Morrison government's religious discrimination bill, Monash University associate professor of constitutional law Luke Beck warned the revised bill included provisions that "appear to be motivated by a desire to allow people to be nasty to others".
In a separate submission, the 13-member Australian Discrimination Law Experts Group (ADLEG), said the bill was "deeply flawed", prioritising religious beliefs over the rights of LGBTIQ Australians, people with a disability and women.
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Religious discrimination bill will harm patients and discriminate against doctors, AMA warns
Australian Medical Association says proposed bill undermines ‘role of the medical board and the ethical codes of the wider medical profession’
Fri 31 Jan 2020 10.42 AEDT Last modified on Fri 31 Jan 2020 10.46 AEDT
The religious discrimination bill would harm patients’ rights to access healthcare and allow religious hospitals to discriminate against doctors, the Australian Medical Association has warned.
The AMA made the comments in a submission to the second round of consultation on the religious freedom bills, which closes on Friday.
The second draft bill, released in early December, has addressed some conservative religious institutions’ concerns by including an exemption that will enshrine their ability to discriminate against staff on the basis of religion in settings like hospitals and aged care.
But the broad chorus of dissent against the bill from employers, LGBTI organisations, human rights groups and medical bodies shows little sign of abating.
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Global equity correction triggered
Feb 1, 2020 — 6.14am
Shares tumbled across Europe and on Wall Street - pointing to a sharp drop in Australia on Monday morning - as investors threw in the towel on the new year rally as concerns about the coronavirus outbreak heighten.
Investors also were seen reluctant to hold positions over the weekend given the uncertainty about how fast the virus is spreading, and whether efforts to contain it were working.
ASX futures were down 119 points or 1.71 per cent to 6835 near 8.30am AEDT, slightly paring earlier losses. The Australian dollar sank 0.4 per cent to US66.93¢.
The World Health Organisation's latest situation report - issued Saturday AEDT - put the global number of confirmed coronavirus cases at 9826 with 213 deaths, all within China. In addition to the 9720 cases in China, there are another 15,238 suspected cases there.
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Fires and virus could drive nation into recession
By Shane Wright, Jennifer Duke and Eryk Bagshaw
January 31, 2020 — 7.45pm
The unprecedented summer of bushfires and now the coronavirus outbreak could drive Australia into its first recession in three decades, with economists warning regional parts of the country are most at risk of suffering long-term financial pain.
Panel members of the Scope survey for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age believe the bushfires alone could knock up to 0.5 per cent - almost $10 billion - from GDP through the first half of 2020. The coronavirus could clip another 0.2 per cent from growth over the same period.
The federal government has conceded the fires may hit the budget with $500 million already earmarked to support affected communities through the 2019-20 financial year. Earlier this week, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the May budget would take into account the extra spending as well as the economic impact of the disasters "as best as they are known at that time".
But retailers and tourist operators have already started to report troubles due to the fires and associated smoke, with the coronavirus outbreak adding to pressures.
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Hollow the leader with a mountain to climb: PM's challenge is beyond urgent
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editor for The Sydney Morning Herald
January 31, 2020 — 7.35pm
He wasn't around to meet Scott Morrison, but the 19th-century French democrat Alexandre Ledru-Rollin captured his early prime ministerial style: ''There go the people – I must follow them, for I am their leader."
After months of astonishing refusal to get active on Australia's bushfires Morrison is now embracing the cause with the zeal of a convert. This fire season has inflicted the greatest disaster that Australia has suffered in Morrison's lifetime. Not measured by the death toll only but across the full spectrum of national assets – human, natural, economic.
The British natural historian David Attenborough has called it "a major international catastrophe". But Morrison failed to act on it.
Ominously, the fire season began in winter. Yet as the conflagration grew to consume an area bigger than all of Switzerland and Israel put together, Morrison made excuses and changed the subject. But there was only one subject. Morrison wasn't interested. It was a matter for the states, he said.
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Economists tip tough year for households with 21 per cent chance of recession
By Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
January 31, 2020 — 3.31pm
Australian households will face another year of slow wages growth and growing unemployment, with little respite for businesses as the global economy struggles despite ultra-low interest rates.
That's the view of a panel of 21 of the nation's top market, academic and industry analysts in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age annual Scope survey. The survey shows deep concerns about the domestic and global economy even before the full impact of the coronavirus outbreak is known, and with months left in the bushfire season.
Across those surveyed just one economist - Market Economics' Stephen Koukoulas - is tipping the economy to grow by more than 3 per cent this year. In contrast, Industry Super economist Stephen Anthony is forecasting just 1 per cent growth.
Mr Anthony is the most bearish of the Scope survey panel, saying there's a 75 per cent chance of Australia falling into recession by the start of 2022. Mr Koukoulas, in line with his upbeat assessment of the economy, puts the chance of a recession at just 1-in-100.
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Religious discrimination bill could put business in 'perilous' and 'very expensive' position: ACCI
By Judith Ireland
February 1, 2020 — 12.00am
Proposed religious discrimination laws could put businesses in a "perilous" and "very expensive" position as they try to balance the rights of religious and non-religious employees.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry's concerns come as doctors push back on the draft bill's conscientious objection provisions, with the Australian Medical Association warning they could cause "serious confusion in the real world".
As submissions to the second draft of the Morrison government's religious discrimination bill closed on Friday, ACCI said the "statements of belief" provisions potentially created "a serious issue for employers".
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Bushfire Crisis And Climate Policy
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A rethink for Brand Australia
After a horrific fire season, Australia is not looking quite so clean and green. The question now is how best to reposition the Great Southern Land as a tourist destination.
Jan 25, 2020 — 12.00am
By any measure, it's been a monster perfect storm leading to a public relations nightmare, as the world watches vast tracts of Australia burn in real time on every type of channel from the BBC to Snapchat.
As the first plank of the federal government's $38 million Come Live Our Philausophy campaign went live in Britain over Christmas, firestorms were raging in popular tourism areas. And a fire in South Australia's Kangaroo Island was about to hit the nation's radar big time.
The $15 million "Matesong" ad shot for the British market depicted Kylie Minogue and other celebrities including sports heroes Shane Warne and Ash Barty at glorious deserted beach and outback locations, always under a brilliant blue sky and with the token koala, kangaroo, or quokka.
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These scientists think we're in a 'bushfire spiral'. They have a plan
By Liam Mannix
January 26, 2020 — 12.05am
It is atop a narrow road running along a ridgeline a few kilometres out of Kinglake that things start to get really, really scary.
In 2009’s Black Saturday blazes, the houses along Pine Ridge Road were destroyed by bushfire. Ten people died.
A decade later, nearly every house has been rebuilt.
“That one will not survive,” says Professor Kevin Tolhurst, nodding at a house on his left. “Neither will that one.”
We stroll to the edge of the road, where it starts to slope steeply away. There is a bare patch here. A "For Sale" sign has been stuck in the yard. We’re surrounded by trees.
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Companies see dangers of climate change as risks ‘materialise’
Financial risks to big businesses triggered by global warming have begun to “materialise” in Australia, helping to revive the political dynamic that first pushed the government to act on climate change a decade ago, according to the nation’s former top public servant, Terry Moran.
Due to heightened environmental concerns from the public in the wake of the bushfire crisis and the fast-growing adoption of climate mitigation strategies by the private sector, Mr Moran said it was inevitable the government would soon take a tougher position on climate and energy policy.
Mr Moran, secretary of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet between 2008 and 2011, now chairs the Centre for Policy Development think-tank which has been instrumental in an overhaul of the local business, financial and regulatory approach to grappling with climate change.
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'No safe level': Study links PM2.5 pollution to increased risk of cardiac arrest
By Jenny Noyes
January 28, 2020 — 10.47am
Researchers say there is "no safe level" of PM2.5 air pollution after a large-scale study found a significant association between cardiac arrest and exposure to fine particles – levels of which have frequently soared beyond "hazardous" in south-eastern Australia as a result of bushfire smoke in recent months.
The Sydney University-led study published in The Lancet Planetary Health on Tuesday analysed Japanese air quality data against 249,372 cases of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, and found even short-term exposure to low levels of PM2.5 comes with elevated risk for people over the age of 65.
The study found the risk of cardiac arrest increased by 4 per cent for every 10-unit increase in PM2.5 levels – but more than 90 per cent of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests occurred at levels below the Australian standard of 25 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m3). In other words, at air quality levels deemed "fair", "good" or "very good" under Australian standards.
With the survival rate for cardiac arrests outside hospital at about 12 per cent in NSW and 10 per cent globally, the study's authors said "a global approach to tackle this crucial health issue is necessary for our planet".
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'Dropped the ball': NSW fire services spending 80 per cent as much as Victoria
By Pallavi Singhal and Nigel Gladstone
January 29, 2020 — 9.57am
NSW fire services spent less than 80 per cent of the amount allocated by Victorian organisations on staffing and capital costs, but had to respond to nearly twice the number of fires and other incidents last year.
The NSW Rural Fire Service and Fire and Rescue NSW spent $1.4 billion on staffing, capital and other costs in the 2018-19 financial year, compared to $1.8 billion by fire services in Victoria, the latest Productivity Commission report on government services, released on Wednesday, reveals.
Proportionally, NSW fire organisations spent $173 per person in the state, compared to $276 in Victoria, $290 in Tasmania and $208 in both the ACT and NT last year.
NSW fire services' expenditure has consistently remained well below Victoria and the national average on a per-person basis since 2009-10.
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'Dire outlook': Researchers call for urgent Australian climate action
By Peter Hannam
January 29, 2020 — 12.00am
Eighty leading researchers have called on Australia's governments to "acknowledge the gravity of the threat posed by climate change" and cut greenhouse gases "to safeguard against catastrophe".
An open letter, signed by present and recent Australian Research Council laureates, said while many factors contributed to the bushfire crisis, "the role of exceptional heat and dryness cannot be ignored".
"Temperatures nearly everywhere on Earth have been rising for decades, a clear result of the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from fossil fuel use and other human activities," it said.
Bushfires have burnt through about 12 million hectares across Australia this season, or about 1.5 times the size of Tasmania. The unprecedented scale of the fires came as the country recorded its hottest and driest year in 2019, the Bureau of Meteorology said earlier this month.
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Morrison government strikes major energy deal with NSW
By Mike Foley and Alexandra Smith
January 31, 2020 — 12.01am
Nearly $3 billion will be pumped into NSW to increase gas supplies, bolster the energy network and reduce carbon emissions in a major deal between the Morrison and Berejiklian governments.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says gas supply is "critical" to Australia's energy supply and NSW has committed to inject an additional 70 petajoules into the east coast market - potentially increasing gas use in the state by about 60 per cent.
In return, NSW will get $960 million in federal funding to upgrade its energy grid and invest in emissions reductions initiatives, such as methane capture from landfill and land-based carbon farming projects like agriculture or forestry.
For this work the federal government will provide a minimum $450 million in grants, with another $510 million coming in a mix of grants and loans. It has not yet been specified how much carbon emissions will reduce under the plan.
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Scott Morrison doubles down on climate change
The Prime Minister is no longer reluctant to put climate change and bushfires in the same sentence.
Jan 29, 2020 — 6.14pm
Scott Morrison is trying to rapidly reverse out of a political dead end – but without conceding much ground.
So he is emphasising his government’s climate action agenda is a common sense and practical one with a distinctively Australian accent.
“It goes beyond targets and summits and it's driven by technology, not taxation,” he said in his first major speech of the year.
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'Unprecedented' fires, hail and floods cost Suncorp $674m in claims
By Charlotte Grieve
January 30, 2020 — 10.16am
Hail storms, heavy rain and bushfires have cost Suncorp at least $674 million in claims in a weather season chief executive Steve Johnston has described as "unprecedented". But its reinsurance protection should be enough to shield it from major financial damage, the insurance giant said.
Earlier in the month, Suncorp reported it had received more than 2600 bushfire-related claims costing the company between $315 and $345 million. Since then, additional blazes across three states including Tasmania added a further $75 to $105 million to the bill.
On Thursday, the insurer declared three more natural hazard events including hailstorms in NSW, Canberra and parts of Victoria and heavy rain reported in South East Queensland as triggers for a spike in claims.
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Biblical backlash follows Morrison's miracle
After a terrible summer compounded by unforced errors, PM Scott Morrison is struggling to articulate a coherent agenda - and relying on help from the states.
Jan 31, 2020 — 4.28pm
There are those within the ranks of the Coalition, particularly in Queensland, who will tell you that last year’s election result was the outcome of divine intervention.
However, the recent circumstances facing the country, and therefore the federal government, in the first weeks of 2020 have had more the feeling of biblical punishment.
And that’s before the unforced errors plaguing Scott Morrison are taken into account.
Catastrophic drought, bushfires, and now the coronavirus – not to mention their economic fallout on a soft economy – are all issues that require competent national policy responses.
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Fire weather worsening: more heat, less rainfall
Pep Canadell
The fires during the past few months have been unique in the modern fire history of Australia because of their location, extent and rich carbon reservoirs. The latest estimates are of 10 million hectares of burnt area (and counting) in the south and southeast, making this year’s fire season the largest in the region since records began.
The fact only a small fraction of the southeast forests remain unburnt also makes this season unique. These fires are taking place after 200 years of land clearing, when the extent of temperate forests is the smallest in history. This means that as the remaining forests burn, critical habitat for many species is further reduced. At present, 49 species have had more than 80 per cent of their habitat burned, raising the question of whether some species have shifted from being threatened to endangered.
Although tens of millions of hectares burn every year, most of that is in the savannas of the Top End and in the rangelands of the centre and west where largely grasses burn. In these rangelands, the biggest fire years occur after good rains. This is in marked contrast to fires in the southeastern forests that occur during periods of drought.
Preliminary analyses from the Global Fire Emissions Database, run by a consortium of research institutions including NASA, suggests that last year fire emissions in Australia were higher than in any previous year since records began in the late 1990s. Work we are doing in conjunction with the fire emissions group for Australia’s carbon budget (calculating the net balance of all emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in Australia, which the CSIRO has been calculating since 2013) shows that fire emissions from the southeast last year were at least as high as the entire annual Australian CO2 emissions inventory from the combustion of fossil fuels, so effectively doubling the nation’s carbon footprint. The large carbon emissions this year are the result of burning some of the most carbon dense forests in the world, many accumulating hundreds of tonnes of carbon per hectare.
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Coronavirus And Impacts.
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China faces 'grave situation' as toll rises
Tony Munroe and Roxanne Liu
Jan 26, 2020 — 11.21am
Beijing | President Xi Jinping said China was facing a "grave situation" as the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak jumped to 42, overshadowing Lunar New Year celebrations that began on Saturday.
China also announced further transport restrictions.
There are currently four confirmed cases of the deadly coronavirus in Australia: three men in NSW and one in Victoria.
With more than 1,400 people infected worldwide, most of them in China, Hong Kong declared a virus emergency, scrapped celebrations and restricted links to mainland China.
Australia confirmed its first four cases and Canada its first on Saturday, after Malaysia confirmed four and France reported Europe's first cases on Friday, as health authorities around the world scrambled to prevent a pandemic.
The United States is arranging a charter flight on Sunday to bring its citizens and diplomats back from Wuhan, the central Chinese city at the epicentre of the outbreak, the Wall Street Journal reported.
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China's President Xi says coronavirus situation 'grave'
By Tony Munroe and Roxanne Liu
Updated January 26, 2020 — 5.44pmfirst published at 9.46am
Beijing: Chinese leader Xi Jinping has warned the "accelerating spread" of coronavirus infections had created a "grave" situation in his populous nation, which extended travel restrictions to 48 million people in hardest-hit Hubei province, banned inter-province buses to Beijing and cancelled tour group travel abroad.
As the Lunar New Year, China's biggest holiday, began without much of the usual festivity, Hong Kong announced that schools would be closed until February 17. The United States, France and Russia sought ways to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan, the central Chinese city of 11 million where the outbreak originated and is continuing to spread.
The pneumonia-like disease caused by a new coronavirus has killed at least 56 people and infected more than 1900 worldwide, though conditions in Wuhan - where overcrowded hospitals are short of basic supplies - have led to speculation the outbreak may be far worse.
China's state media CCTV reported on Sunday that central Hubei province, which is at the centre of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, has recorded 13 new deaths caused by the illness and 323 new confirmed infections, while Shanghai also reported its first death from the virus.
Two cases have been confirmed in the United States - one in Chicago and another outside Seattle, in travellers who have returned from Wuhan. Infections also have turned up in South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, and France, as well as Australia. Canadian officials confirmed it has also spread there via a man in his 50s who had recently flew from Wuhan to Guangzhou and then on to Toronto on Thursday.
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Coronavirus ban puts quarter of Chinese tourism to Australia at risk
By Nick Bonyhady
January 26, 2020 — 4.02pm
China has stopped its citizens from booking overseas tours as part of the country's efforts to curtail the spread of coronavirus in a further blow to Australia's beleaguered tourism operators.
State media reported that the China Tourism Association had already halted all domestic holiday hotel and flight bookings through travel agencies on Friday and announced on Saturday it would do the same for outbound tour groups.
The move puts at risk about a quarter of the travellers Australia receives from China - its biggest international tourist market - every year and compounds the woes of operators who are already expecting fewer customers as a result of the bushfires.
The travel booking ban, which goes into effect on Monday, comes as Chinese authorities grapple with a public health crisis that has claimed 56 lives and resulted in almost 2000 confirmed cases.
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Brace for the economic fallout from China’s virus
When we are set for a significant change in the outlook for the share market, it’s usually the bond markets that convey the first signal.
And so, during the last week and over the weekend global investors rushed for US bonds—the traditional safe haven security.
Accordingly, last week the US 10-year bond yield fell by 8.2 per cent from 1.83 to 1.68 per cent. Falls in bond yields are created because the price of bonds rise as investors chase safety, fearing a global downturn.
This week’s bond market will give us a clearer picture of what the bond market believes is ahead.
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Coronavirus risk is more than biological
By Alan Zheng
January 27, 2020 — 12.39am
In Stephen Soderbergh's 2011 film Contagion, a mysterious virus originating in Macau ripples through the United States. What follows is a bubbling concoction of state anxiety, pandemic imagery and looming societal collapse.
The emergence of a new coronavirus in central China, termed “2019-nCoV”, has dampened Lunar New Year celebrations in the country and sparked memories of SARS, which spread to more than two dozen countries, including Australia, and infected thousands in 2003.
Images of Chinese people in masks are saturating the TV news. Apocalyptic imagery and headlines have foreshadowed a global health emergency, although the World Health Organisation is yet to declare one.
Meanwhile, the death toll is on the rise, cities are in lockdown and Australians consume daily updates indicating the number of people being tested for the virus on our shores. Authorities have confirmed that, so far, three people have tested positive in NSW and one in Victoria.
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China virus crisis intensifies, expat families evacuating
Jan 26, 2020 — 8.13pm
Shanghai | China started imposing travel restrictions throughout the country on Sunday as the death toll from a deadly respiratory virus rose to 56 and the number of infected rose to almost 2000 people.
Shanghai recorded its first death from the coronavirus, amid growing concerns that its spread was accelerating and this would result in drastic measures by authorities to stop hundreds of millions of people returning home after the Lunar New Year holidays.
Some expatriate families in Shanghai and Beijing with young children were booking flights out of the country on Sunday.
Authorities also banned group tours for Chinese citizens overseas, including in Australia, a further body blow to Australia's bushfire-hit tourism industry. There could also be ramifications for the university sector if Chinese students are prevented from travelling.
Beijing and two other cities suspended long-distance bus services on Sunday. The 11 million inhabitants of Wuhan, the central Chinese city which is the source of the virus, along with more than 30 million people living in neighbouring cities and towns, are effectively quarantined.
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Coronavirus outbreak could shake a vulnerable global economy
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
January 27, 2020 — 12.42pm
The outbreak of the new coronavirus in China is generating fear and unsettling markets. Nearly 60 million people in one of China’s largest cities are in lockdown and new cases are emerging around the world daily, adding to concerns about the human and economic impact of the new virus.
At time of publishing, there have been more than 2700 confirmed cases and 80 people have died, overwhelmingly in China at this point. It is, however, too early in the history of this outbreak to come to any conclusions about its ultimate potency and impacts.
The best reference point is probably the 2002-03 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic, which also emanated from within China. SARS infected more than 8000 people worldwide, of whom nearly 800 died. At this early point the coronavirus appears to have a lower mortality rate than SARS.
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China travel ban to last for months
Updated Jan 27, 2020 — 4.27pm, first published at 4.23pm
Shanghai | Thousands of Chinese tourists planning to travel to Australia over the next two months have been forced to cancel their trips after Beijing slapped a ban on tour groups overseas in an effort to control the spread of the coronavirus.
Tour operators in China said on Monday they had been told the ban would be in place for as long as two months, a crippling blow for Australia's tourism industry, which is already hurting from the bushfires and relies heavily on visitors from China.
The travel companies said they were seeking refunds from Australian domestic airlines and hotels for trips already booked, but were not confident about getting their deposits back. About 1.4 million tourists from China visit Australia each year, spending $12 billion.
"It's a nightmare. We have booked and paid for all the domestic flights within Australia and the same for local hotels. It is hard for us to get a refund," Yao Pei, director of the Beijing Caissa International Travel Service told The Australian Financial Review.
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Education sector takes huge hit from coronavirus
Jan 28, 2020 — 12.00am
The $15 billion Chinese-student market is under threat as universities and schools lock in emergency plans to protect against the coronavirus, including "self-quarantining", and the federal government widens the scope of a task force to look at damage to the sector from the crisis.
The vulnerability of universities was underlined when the fourth victim in New South Wales was revealed as a student at the University of New South Wales.
The young woman from Wuhan returned to student accommodation on campus on January 22 but was not diagnosed until she reported to hospital on Monday. A spokesman for UNSW said she had "no close contact with anyone before she was admitted to hospital".
The Council for International Students in Australia, meanwhile, warned against using the word "quarantine", saying it would jeopardise Australia's position in global education markets and drive future students to other countries.
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'Bad news on bad news': Virus could land $2.3b hit to the economy
By Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
January 28, 2020 — 12.01am
The coronavirus outbreak is "bad news on bad news" for the Australian economy, with warnings it could hit up to 20,000 jobs across small business and the university sector as Chinese tourists and students stay home.
As the number of deaths from the virus grows to at least 80, there are fears it could wipe $2.3 billion from an already soft Australian economy, which is still struggling with the drought and bushfires.
US stocks fell more than 1% as investors worried about the economic fallout of the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak in China that has prompted the country to extend the Lunar New Year holidays and businesses to close some operations.
China is Australia's largest source of foreign tourists, and more than 200,000 Chinese people are fee-paying students in the nation's universities, making up a significant proportion of the student population. University of NSW on Monday confirmed one of its students had the coronavirus after she arrived from Wuhan.
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What coronavirus teaches us about China
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editor for The Sydney Morning Herald
January 27, 2020 — 11.50pm
The latest made-in-China pandemic reveals Beijing's impressive capacity to learn from its errors and improve its performance in dealing with crises. It also exposes China's fatal flaws.
"I was on the first team into China to try to find the source of the SARS virus in 2003 [as part of the World Health Organisation effort]," says John Mackenzie, the team leader investigating the advent of severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Mackenzie, then an eminent virologist at the University of Queensland, was confronted with a dysfunctional Chinese health system: "There was very little communication between the provinces and the central government, the lab processes were very slow, the central health authorities had little control over what was done and what was announced in the provinces," he tells me.
China's government was denounced at home and abroad for bungling the whole episode: the three-month delay in notifying the WHO, the attempted cover-ups, the secrecy and denial that ended with 774 people dead in 17 countries.
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Coronavirus spreading faster than SARS, says Australian expert
The scientist who sequenced and named Australia’s bat-borne Hendra virus more than 25 years ago says the deadly new strain of coronavirus appears to be spreading much faster than earlier outbreaks of similar diseases.
Linfa Wang, an Australian world expert on bat-borne diseases who heads Duke University’s joint Emerging Infectious Diseases program with the National University of Singapore, says the new disease appears to be more infectious than SARS, the severe acute respiratory syndrome disease that killed 774 people in 2002 and 2003.
“For SARS, it took five months to identify and more than 8000 people were infected,” Professor Wang said.
By comparison, scientists in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the disease broke out, had genetically sequenced the new coronavirus within two to three weeks, yet the new strain has already infected more than 2700 people since last month.
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How the coronavirus is hitting business
The coronavirus outbreak has spooked markets across the globe and companies in industries from oil to professional services, wine and agriculture are reeling from the fallout.
Matthew Cranston, Edmund Tadros, Angela Macdonald-Smith, Simon Evans, Liam Walsh, Nick Lenaghan and Aleks Vickovich
Jan 28, 2020 — 4.09pm
It used to be said that when the US sneezed, Australia would catch a flu. So what happens when China, our biggest export partner, catches a virus?
As the new strain of the coronavirus spreads, everything important to the Australian economy starts to take a hit – from iron ore prices to tourism.
Financial markets have already dumped the Australian dollar, shed their appetite for risk and jumped into safe haven assets such as the Australian 10-year bond, where the yield has suddenly dropped 12 basis points overnight to 0.973 per cent. The ASX 200 was down 1.4 per cent in afternoon trade.
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Virus will be under control by April
The coronavirus outbreak will get worse before it gets better, but from an economic perspective it is too early to panic.
Shang-Jin Wei
Jan 28, 2020 — 5.22pm
New York | The panic generated by the new coronavirus, 2019-nCov, which originated in Wuhan, one of China’s largest cities and a major domestic transport hub, reminds many of the fear and uncertainty at the peak of the 2003 SARS crisis.
China’s sharemarket, after rising for months, has reversed itself in recent days, and global markets have followed suit, apparently reflecting concerns about the epidemic’s impact on the Chinese economy and global growth. Are these worries justified?
My baseline projection is that the coronavirus outbreak will get worse before it gets better, with infections and deaths possibly peaking in the second or third week of February. But I expect that both the Chinese authorities and the World Health Organisation will declare the epidemic to be under control by early April.
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Coronavirus: Pharmacists on frontline in fight
Pharmacists are being urged to check whether customers with flu-like symptoms have been overseas in the latest measure to strengthen Australia’s response to the coronavirus.
The nation’s chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, said pharmacists were likely to be in the frontline when it came to tackling the deadly virus as it continued to spread and that it was crucial they queried customers about their travel histories. “I know that people with flu-like symptoms, such as those seen with this coronavirus, will often seek advice from their pharmacist,” Dr Murphy said. “I am encouraging pharmacists, in coming weeks, to seek a travel history from such patients, asking them whether they have been in the Hubei province of China or whether they have been in contact with people with the coronavirus infection.
“If the answer is yes, please ask your patient to put on a surgical mask and present to their GP or emergency department.”
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The Coronavirus: can we breathe easy?
As 2020 gets into full swing it is news of a potentially devastating virus that has gone viral. As such, I thought I would take a look at the the potential economic and sharemarket impact of the Coronavirus. It suggests that while the economic and sharemarket impact may well get worse in the short-run – especially for certain sectors and countries – chances are it should not provide the knock out blow to the global economy and the decade long bull market that some fear.
- The Coronavirus is most easily compared to the 2003 SARS Outbreak.
- That episode suggests the negative impact on the sharemarket should be short-lived, and largely confined to Asia.
- That said, China is now more important to the global economy than it was in 2003.
The Coronavirus
The novel coronavirus is a particular viral strain (2019-nCov) emerging out of China that has not previously been detected in humans. Like previous viruses that have infiltrated the human population, such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the concern is that their severity and degree of contagiousness is not immediately known.
As at the time of writing, there have been around 4,500 reported cases and 106 deaths.
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Virus is Xi's greatest challenge
Officials in Wuhan are copping the blame for not responding to the coronavirus outbreak earlier. But this might be the fault of China's centralised system of government under its strongman leader.
Jan 29, 2020 — 3.57pm
Shanghai | China's worst health crisis since the 2003 SARS epidemic is the latest setback for its strongman president Xi Jinping.
While the ruling Communist Party's response to the coronavirus outbreak has been a lot more transparent than during SARS outbreak, a failure to contain its spread highlights flaws in the way the world's most populous country is governed.
Damage control by Xi and the party elite in Beijing has included effectively throwing the local authorities in Wuhan under a bus in an effort to deflect the blame. State-controlled media have criticised local officials for failing to highlight risks in the early weeks of the outbreak, almost a month ago.
The mayor of Wuhan has offered to resign, while a bungled interview by the local governor struggling to nail down the number of face masks manufactured in the city went viral on social media.
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Warning each coronavirus patient infects 2-3 others
An 'estimated 190,000' will be infected in Wuhan alone by 4 February, based on contagion rate
29th January 2020
Each patient infected with coronavirus passes the illness to between two and three other people, on average, at current transmission rates, according to two separate analyses of the epidemic.
Control measures would have to halt transmission in at least 60% of cases to contain the spread of the epidemic, the researchers say.
One of the studies, co-led by Professor Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease specialist at Imperial College London, suggests as many as 4000 people in Wuhan were already infected by 18 January.
Each case would have infected between two and three people, according to their analysis, which is based on past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan and modelling of potential epidemic trajectories.
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Fed says coronavirus may pose risks to global growth
· Dow Jones
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the fast-spreading coronavirus may pose risks to global growth, which has begun to stabilise amid signs of thawing trade tensions.
His comments came after the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and reaffirmed its make-no-moves posture.
Mr Powell said US central bank officials are carefully monitoring the coronavirus situation, but emphasised it’s too early to speculate on the macroeconomic implications for China.
“There will clearly be implications of course in the near-term for Chinese output and I would guess for their close neighbours,” he said at a press conference following the Fed’s policy meeting. “We’ll just have to see what the effect is globally.”
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Experts debunk fringe theory linking China's coronavirus to weapons research
Adam Taylor
Jan 30, 2020 — 3.18am
As China attempts to contain the spread of a new coronavirus that has left more than 100 people dead, rumours and disinformation have spread amid the scramble for answers.
Some of the speculation has centred on a virology institute in Wuhan, the city where the outbreak began. One fringe theory holds that the disaster could be the accidental result of biological weapons research.
But in conversations with The Washington Post, experts rejected the idea that the virus could be man-made.
"Based on the virus genome and properties there is no indication whatsoever that it was an engineered virus," said Richard Ebright, a professor of chemical biology at Rutgers University.
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How Beijing's silence helped spread the virus
Beijing's blaming of local officials and signs on a clampdown on information about the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has tragic echoes of the mishandling of the SARs virus more than a decade ago, writes Richard McGregor.
Jan 30, 2020 — 12.59pm
The question that Congress asked Richard Nixon about Watergate decades ago – what did he know and when did he know it? – is ripe for a 21st century rerun, this time directed to Chinese leaders about the Wuhan virus.
Much of the domestic and global coverage of the Chinese authorities’ handling of the coronavirus has focused on the sudden decision, issued at 2am on January 23, to quarantine Wuhan, a city of 11 million in central China.
“To my knowledge, trying to contain a city of 11 million people is new to science,” said Gauden Galea, a World Health Organisation official, who seemed to be both in awe at the order, and wryly unsure about whether it would work.
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WHO declares coronavirus outbreak 'international' emergency
Jan 31, 2020 — 6.47am
The Geneva-based World Health Organisation declared on Thursday (Friday AEDT) that the coronavirus epidemic in China now constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus made it clear that China was working hard to contain the virus and it was "setting a new standard for outbreak response".
The World Health Organisation has declared a global health emergency over the recent cornavirus outbreak.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the government has received “very strong interest” from Australians wanting to be evacuated from China to Christmas Island. China is yet to approve the flight.
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Our China-dependent universities cannot escape the financial shock of coronavirus
By Salvatore Babones
January 31, 2020 — 10.59am
China's coronavirus outbreak has disrupted travel plans for millions of people — and could cost Australian universities millions of dollars. Within China itself, the virus epicentre in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, is in lockdown. Tens of millions of others have been prevented from travelling during the Chinese New Year holidays. And of course more than 600 Australians are trapped in Hubei province, awaiting evacuation.
For students threatened by a deadly and fast-spreading virus, classes may be the last thing on their minds. But university administrators are running scared. The University of Sydney and the University of NSW have both been hit by student infections — and the academic year hasn't even started.
With more than 30,000 Chinese students due to arrive soon at Sydney and UNSW, and another 8000 or so at UTS (none of the universities publish exact numbers), the threat of a public health crisis is real, but manageable. Universities can closely monitor classes and dormitories. Infected students can be quarantined and treated.
Much harder to manage will be the financial impact if 40,000 students simply don't show up. Chinese students account for more than 10 per cent of total revenue at many Australian universities, and more than 20 per cent at the University of Sydney and UNSW, according to my estimates published by the Centre for Independent Studies last August. Revenue losses on that scale could be catastrophic.
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Trump’s team flunks microbe economics as virus spreads
By Paul Krugman
January 31, 2020 — 10.41am
How frightened should you be about the coronavirus? I'm no epidemiologist, but what I've seen looks pretty scary.
It doesn't help that the Trump administration, as part of its general war against science and expertise, has seriously reduced America's capacity to respond if we do face a dangerous pandemic.
It also looks quite possible that the virus will inflict a lot of economic damage — even if it doesn't kill you, it might kill your job. And one special source of concern is that top officials in the Trump administration are talking nonsense about the economic threat to the world's largest economy.
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Tourist industry trembles over China coronavirus hit
Australia’s tourism industry is among key sectors bracing for a hit from the coronavirus outbreak, as it poses a “risk” to the nation’s economic outlook.
While analysts caution it’s too early to predict the full impact on Australia’s economy, UBS economists say the key Chinese tourist market is one area of worry, after Beijing announced a halt on all outbound group tours for a minimum of two months.
They estimate a two-month halt on Chinese package tours alone would directly cost Australia at least $1bn in services exports.
While in 2003, short-term arrivals from China were only 200,000 a year, or about a 7 per cent share of the market, they are now about 1.5m, or 19 per cent.
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The Wuhan coronavirus will hurt these Australian companies and cost the economy billions, according to global bank UBS
Jan 31, 2020
- While acknowledging the difficulty in estimating the full cost of the Wuhan coronavirus, investment bank UBS says it looks like it’ll cost Australia at least $1 billion.
- The full figure could come in far higher however, with UBS analysts believing a two-month group travel ban would cost Australian $1 billion in tourism alone.
- The virus also looks likely to reduce spending on education, exports, and consumer goods while also lowering commodity prices, a major Australian export to China.
While acknowledging the difficulty in putting an exact dollar figure to it, global investment bank UBS has proposed a baseline.
“Our economists estimate a two-month halt on China package tours could directly cost Australia at least $1bn in services exports. Secondary impacts could be multiples of this
amount; particular if commodity exports are affected,” UBS analysts and economists wrote in a research note issued to Business Insider Australia. “As with SARS, the coronavirus looks set to have a material impact on GDP, retail sales and tourism.”
amount; particular if commodity exports are affected,” UBS analysts and economists wrote in a research note issued to Business Insider Australia. “As with SARS, the coronavirus looks set to have a material impact on GDP, retail sales and tourism.”
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Universities wrong-footed by fires, a deadly virus and Brexit
Feb 1, 2020 — 12.00am
Some people are calling it the four horsemen of the apocalypse for universities: drought, disease, competition and trade wars.
Just when universities had a reasonably stable outlook, having moved past their recent conflict with the government over funding, the sector finds itself facing unexpected threats.
There has been a lot of focus on the reputational damage to Australia from dangerous bushfires and smoke-filled skies and the uncertainty brought about by China's coronavirus outbreak.
But a less-recognised threat facing the sector is the aggressive competition from the UK for international students as it seeks to bolster its economy post-Brexit. And industry veteran Phil Honeywood says there is also increased pressure on China to encourage its students to choose US universities following the recent trade deal with Washington.
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Australia bars foreign arrivals from China
Feb 1, 2020 — 4.02pm
Shanghai | Canberra | Australians have been warned not to travel to mainland China as the coronavirus spread escalates, as non-citizens are blocked from travelling into Australia from Saturday.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the Department of Foreign Affairs travel advice for China had been lifted to 'do not travel', as cases of the deadly virus mount.
Only Australian citizens, permanent residents, spouses, guardians and dependents will be permitted entry to Australia on flights from China from February 1, and all will be required to self-isolate for 14 days.
The significant step up on Saturday comes as Qantas joined a growing number of global airlines suspending services to mainland China.
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A tale of two crises, and and why the PM hasn't been burnt - yet - by the coronavirus
Claire Kimball
Columnist and the founder of The Squiz
February 2, 2020 — 12.00am
It was US President John F Kennedy who said: “When written in Chinese, the word crisis is composed of two characters – one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity.”
That couldn’t be more apt when dissecting how Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his government have handled the events of the past few weeks. From the devastating bushfires to this week’s rapid escalation of the coronavirus outbreak, there’s been enough danger to fill a year, not a month.
As JFK identified, there has also been political opportunity – some that has been squandered by the PM and his team. But if you’ve noticed the stark difference between Morrison’s lethargic bushfire response in early January and the rapid formulation of a coronavirus plan this week, it’s clear there have been some lessons learned over the course of the month.
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Economy to take 'significant' hit
Feb 2, 2020 — 10.30am
The Treasurer said the coronavirus and bushfires will have a 'significant' hit on the economy, Australians being airlifted from China will no longer be charged $1000, and sports clubs who missed out in the McKenzie saga will receive new money.
Josh Frydenberg said Australians being evacuated from the Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus, and flown to Christmas Island will not be charged $1000 as previously announced.
Mr Frydenberg said it was a mistake to say they would be charged.
"The Department of Foreign Affairs have publicly said they they provided incorrect information," he told ABC's Insiders program on Sunday.
The department had previous said the charge was consistent with the arrangements that were in place when people airlifted out of Cairo during the Arab Spring.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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The four things Hayne changed
A year since Commissioner Kenneth Hayne's bombshell, what's its legacy? Now the dust has settled, bankers and their advisers can see the impact it will have on corporate governance.
Jan 31, 2020 — 12.00am
The wave of relief that accompanied the release of Kenneth Hayne’s final report a year ago has given way to widespread unease, as the banking sector grapples with a series of hard questions that will determine whether it can restore trust with the community.
A burning question – which had not been properly considered until the royal commission – is how to provide financial services to customers efficiently, honestly and fairly, a legal duty set out in section 912A of the Corporations Act.
It sounds simple, but compliance was in the past too often thwarted by the toxic influence of financial incentives such as sales commissions and bonuses.
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One year after Hayne: 'Profound' changes for banks, but can they last?
By Clancy Yeates
January 31, 2020 — 11.38am
A year of dramatic upheaval for Australia's banks began with a photo opportunity gone wrong. This time last February, banking royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne appeared to underline his independence by refusing a photographer's request to shake Treasurer Josh Frydenberg's hand as he delivered the inquiry's 1100-page final report.
The awkward scene made for a rare lighter moment in the banking royal commission saga. But the consequences of that lengthy report were serious, and they are still being felt today.
Executives have lost jobs, there has been a flood of lawsuits filed, new laws have passed parliament, and banks have set aside billions for compensating people and cleaning up their act. The landmark report and the inquiry that preceded it also sparked wider discussion on the social function of corporations, the role of regulators, and how senior managers are incentivised to do their jobs.
But will this suite of changes have a lasting impact in cleaning up our scandal-prone banks? Or might the same discussion about bank misconduct rear its head again in five years time?
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It's official: too much banking is bad for you
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
February 1, 2020 — 12.03am
When the newish boss of the International Monetary Fund, Bulgarian economist Kristalina Georgieva, contemplates the challenges of the new decade, she thinks of many things: increasing uncertainty, climate change and increasing inequality – particularly the role the financial sector in making it worse.
Georgieva foresees increasing uncertainty over geopolitical tensions, uncertainty that the trade truce between the US and China will last, and uncertainty that governments can fix the frustrations and growing populist unrest in many countries. "We know this uncertainty harms business confidence, investment and growth," she said in a recent speech.
On climate change, after observing that the "brush fires" blazing across Australia are a reminder of the toll on life that climate change exacts, she avoids saying that we are possibly the most vulnerable among the rich countries (something that might have surprised the she’ll-be-right Scott Morrison).
But she did note that it’s often the poorest and most vulnerable countries that bear the brunt of "this unfolding existential challenge". "The World Bank estimates that unless we alter the current climate path an additional 100 million people may be living in extreme poverty by 2030," she says.
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Kenneth Hayne’s royal commission changed everything
In the 12 months since Kenneth Hayne handed him the final report of the royal commission, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has sent out a flurry of 38 media releases on the subject.
Most of them announced another recommendation ticked off, starting with the words “taking action”, as promised a year ago.
But the recommendations and the 38 media releases are arguably the least of Hayne’s impact: the royal commission into misconduct in the banking, superannuation and financial services industry has changed everything about finance in this country, merely by existing and providing a platform for the stories of customers to be heard.
It was the stories that did it, as well as the sometimes arrogant, sometimes incompetent, always rabbit-in-the-headlights, responses from executives in the witness box.
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National Budget Issues.
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Renewables investment crashes on regulatory risk, policy uncertainty
Jan 31, 2020 — 12.00am
Investment in renewable energy projects collapsed by more than 50 per cent last year, according to fresh data from the Clean Energy Council that counters Prime Minister Scott Morrison's claim of "record" spending in the area.
The number of large-scale renewable energy projects that reached financial close dropped from 51, worth a record $10.7 billion in 2018, to 29 projects worth $4.5 billion in 2019, the Clean Energy Council said.
It blamed mounting regulatory risks, under-investment in transmission and policy uncertainty.
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Childcare package all but gone 18 months after introduction
By Shane Wright and Judith Ireland
February 2, 2020 — 12.00am
The federal government's $2.5 billion childcare package has dried up for some parents just 18 months after its introduction as operators drive up prices more than three times faster than the rate of inflation.
So concerned is the government over how its signature childcare policy is being eroded that Education Minister Dan Tehan will meet operators to find new ways to keep a lid on prices while he commissions a review of key parts of the system.
When the new subsidy program was introduced on July 1, 2018, there was an 11.8 per cent fall in childcare costs across the nation. In Melbourne and Canberra the drop was more than 19 per cent, they fell by 9.7 per cent in Brisbane and by 7.7 per cent in Sydney.
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Aged pension more effective in retirement than ‘failed’ super
Superannuation has failed and should be slowly dismantled, allowing workers to spend up to $20,000 a year until they exhaust their accounts, according to a new analysis of the retirement system.
The analysis, by Sydney University economist Dr Cameron Murray, finds the age pension is over twenty times more efficient at delivering retirement incomes.
Dr Murray contrasted the super sector’s 55,000 workers and $36bn a year in fees with the less than 7,000 staff and $1bn in administration costs for the Age Pension which provides greater levels of annual retirement income.
“Scrapping the super system would massively improve Australia’s economic performance – it’s costly and inefficient, unnecessary, and incredibly unfair,” he said.
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Health Issues.
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Why 30,000 cases of cancer are over-diagnosed in Australia every year
Jan 27, 2020 — 8.04am
Australia has a substantial problem with cancer over-diagnosis, which could be reduced, but is unlikely to be eradicated, according to new research.
The problem is that almost 30,000 cases of cancer may be over-diagnosed every year.
According to a study published in the Medical Journal of Australia on Monday, the problem is worse in men with 18,000 cases a year compared with 11,000 in women.
Over-diagnosis is not to be confused with misdiagnosis, which occurs when a benign condition is mistaken for a cancer.
Rather, it refers to diagnosing a cancer, which - if left untreated - would not go on to be life-threatening for that individual.
These cancers are often detected through screening, overzealous testing or found incidentally, during an examination for something else.
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New study claims some cancers 'better left undiscovered'
By Liam Mannix
Updated January 27, 2020 — 7.55amfirst published at 12.01am
A controversial new study claims about one in every five cancers diagnosed in Australia would have been better left undiscovered.
The study, published in the Medical Journal of Australia on Monday, argues more than half of melanomas, 22 per cent of breast cancers and 42 per cent of prostate cancers diagnosed in Australia would never have caused problems.
The government funds a breast-cancer screening program and many people diligently ask their GP for skin and prostate cancer checks.
But all that extra checking is turning up cancers that would never have gone on to harm the patient, the study says.
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'Cutting edge' $500,000 treatment for aggressive blood cancers
By Dana McCauley
January 28, 2020 — 12.01am
Australians battling highly aggressive blood cancers could start a groundbreaking treatment within weeks, after the federal government signed a new funding deal for the therapy that uses the body’s own immune system to fight the disease.
Adult patients with three types of blood cancer that are not responding to conventional treatment will now be able to access Kymriah, a type of CAR T-cell therapy that would cost more than $500,000 per patient without government funding, through Australia's public health system.
Patients' T cells - a type of immune cell - are extracted from the body, genetically re-engineered and programmed to recognise and destroy cancer cells, and then re-implanted into the body.
The first eligible adult patients with Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma, Transformed Follicular Lymphoma and Primary Mediastinal B Cell Lymphoma could be treated within weeks, pending final sign-off of the funding arrangement by the states and territories.
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Health insurer HCF scraps gap fees for expectant mothers
Women who have private health insurance will save thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs when they give birth in the private system, under one major insurer’s initiative to strike deals with private hospitals to end gap fees for antenatal care and birthing.
The no-gap policy will be instituted immediately at the Sydney Adventist Hospital under a deal insurer HCF wants to expand to other private hospitals to make private health insurance more attractive for young people.
Those aged under 40 have been cancelling their cover in large numbers in recent years, sparking fears of a private health insurance “death spiral”.
Birth services are among the main reasons for young people to claim on their health insurance, but privately insured women have increasingly been giving birth in the public system because of high out-of-pocket costs if they choose to go private.
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Chronic health flaws cost nation, says Productivity Commission
Major deficiencies in the management of people with chronic disease have been exposed by the Productivity Commission in a new report that also reveals that only about half of older people are regularly screened for breast and bowel cancer.
The PC’s Report on Government Services found less than one-third of patients with asthma had an asthma action plan in place, while a quarter of people with diabetes had failed to have a standard blood test during the past 12 months to check their glucose levels. It showed just over half of women aged between 50 and 74 had undertaken breast screening during the past year. Rates for bowel cancer screening were lower; 42 per cent of people aged 50 to 74 had screening.
However, bowel screening rates were up 5 per cent compared with five years ago after a concerted campaign by health authorities mailing people bowel screening tests. Rates of immunisation also increased markedly, with 94 per cent of infants under 12 months having received their full schedule of jabs, compared with 90 per cent six years ago.
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Medical device prices drop under new deal
Patients with private health insurance could save thousands of dollars on the cost of pacemakers and other medical devices following a price cut.
Australian Associated Press February 1, 202012:05am
Millions of Australians with common diseases could save hundreds of dollars on costly medical devices to help them live longer, happier lives.
People with private health insurance will pay less for medical equipment used for a broad range of conditions including heart and lung disease, arthritis and diabetes under an agreement with the federal government.
From February 1, patients with heart disease will save about $2848 on the cost of a pacemaker, reducing the price to just over $35,000. The price of an insulin pump for diabetics will drop about $450 under the agreement.
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PBS listing for cystic fibrosis drug an 'absolute game changer'
By Rachel Clun
January 31, 2020 — 10.00pm
Three drugs have been added to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, saving some patients up to $250,000 a year.
The PBS listing for cystic fibrosis drug Symdeko has been extended so the 10 to 15 Australians living with an ultra-rare cystic fibrosis gene mutation will now be able to access it without having to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Adam Simeoni said the new cystic fibrosis drugs have "changed my life for the better".
"I used to be going into hospital once every six months for two weeks, apart from the smoke this year I hadn’t been in for two years," he said.
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International Issues.
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Locusts hit Kenya after wreaking havoc in Somalia and Ethiopia
The hum of millions of locusts on the move is broken by the screams of farmers and the clanging of pots and pans. But their noise-making does little to stop the voracious insects from feasting on their crops in this rural community.
The worst outbreak of desert locusts in Kenya in 70 years has seen hundreds of millions of the bugs swarm into the East African nation from Somalia and Ethiopia. Those two countries have not had an infestation like this in a quarter-century, destroying farmland and threatening an already vulnerable region with devastating hunger.
“Even cows are wondering what is happening,” said Ndunda Makanga, who spent hours on Friday trying to chase the locusts from his farm. “Corn, sorghum, cowpeas, they have eaten everything.”
When rains arrive in March and bring new vegetation across much of the region, the numbers of the fast-breeding locusts could grow 500 times before drier weather in June curbs their spread, the UN says.
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Bolton memoir sends shockwaves through Trump impeachment defence
Jan 28, 2020 — 5.41am
Washington | Donald Trump is not yet out of the woods.
Just when it seemed the President's historic trial was headed towards its inevitable conclusion this week or next, a bombshell account from his former national security advisor has thrown up a wild card and left the White House reeling.
John Bolton's claims directly challenge Mr Trump's position that his decision to hold up crucial military aid to the Ukraine in its fight against Russia was unrelated to the President's desire to pressure the allied country into smearing potential Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
The report in The New York Times of Mr Bolton's account has lit up what was an otherwise grinding impeachment process.
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China, not America, will decide the fate of the planet
If you look at the numbers — as opposed to the theatre — it becomes clear that the battle to control climate change now depends much more on what happens in China than in America.
Updated Jan 28, 2020 — 10.08am, first published at 10.01am
Donald Trump has become the pantomime villain of the climate change story. At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, the US president played the role to perfection, denouncing climate activists as “prophets of doom”, while Greta Thunberg, the teenage campaigner, watched on from the audience.
However, if you look at the numbers — as opposed to the theatre — it becomes clear that the battle to control climate change now depends much more on what happens in China than in America.
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, China now accounts for 29 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions generation — compared with 16 per cent for the US, about 10 per cent for the EU and 7 per cent for India. Even on a per-capita basis, the Chinese now emit more greenhouse gases than Europeans and have done so since 2014.
As the Trump administration likes to point out, America’s greenhouse gas emissions actually fell last year — albeit only by 2.1 per cent. This is largely because coal-fired power generation in the US has dropped sharply and is now back to the level that it was in 1975. China, by contrast, continues to open new coal-fired power plants.
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America's epic budget blowouts will just keep growing
Updated Jan 29, 2020 — 10.00am, first published at 7.20am
Washington | America will spend the bulk of this century mired in ballooning government debt as a surge in new spending and the Trump administration's tax cuts push this year's deficit beyond $US1 trillion ($1.48 trillion).
The independent Congressional Budget Office has painted a bleak outlook over the relative short term, as well as for the next three decades, as a surge in social security and medicare entitlements overwhelms the budget.
Projected deficits will expand from 4.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2020 to 5.4 per cent in 2030. As a result, federal debt is expected to leap from 81 per cent of GDP to 98 per cent in 2030.
By mid-century it will hit 180 per cent.
America's fiscal outlook is both stunning and unprecedented.
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Gaps in guest list muffle message from Auschwitz
The Economist
The Soviet troops who in 1945 liberated Auschwitz-Birkenau, the biggest Nazi death camp in occupied Poland, had already witnessed unspeakable atrocities across eastern Europe.
Yet what they found when they rescued the camp’s 7000 surviving inmates still shocked them: ruined gas chambers, victims of grotesque medical experiments, rooms full of hair and books bound in human skin.
“I’m surprised not all the people here have gone mad,” wrote the Soviet commandant.
The camp, where 1.1 million people were murdered — 90 per cent of them Jews, along with Roma and political or war prisoners — has become a universally recognised symbol of evil and of the global commitment to prevent genocide. On Monday the Auschwitz Memorial Museum staged a ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of the camp’s liberation. A long roster of international officials were to attend, including the presidents of Germany, Israel, Poland and Ukraine, the prime ministers of France and Hungary and the UN’s special adviser for preventing genocide.
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Britain after Brexit will not be alone, but it will be lonelier
The UK is also likely to find it hard to exercise much independent influence upon a world entering an era of great power rivalry. Next to the US, China or the future EU, it is an economic minnow, albeit a large one.
Jan 29, 2020 — 11.07am
“At last we are alone.” My father told me he heard these words from an elderly gentleman sitting beside him on the London Underground in June 1940, just after the fall of France.
The same insularity animates Brexit. It was an illusion then — it was not the UK alone, but an alliance with greater powers that won the second world war. It is an illusion now. The UK will not be alone, but it will be lonelier.
We cannot know what would have happened if the 2016 referendum had the opposite outcome. That is the road not taken. But we know some results and may at least guess at others.
Brexit is a decision to separate the UK from the institutions governing the continent of which it is necessarily a part. One result is certain: British people will lose the right to move and work across the EU, as will citizens of EU members to live and work in the UK.
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'That's not us': Fed won't tackle climate change
Jan 30, 2020 — 9.46am
Washington | Tackling climate change can't be the responsibility of central banks even if they do face the job of keeping the financial system "resilient and robust" against the risks it raises, said Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.
"Society's overall response has to be by elected officials and not the Fed," said Mr Powell, seemingly pushing back against supporters of more activist use of central bank policy levers, such as changing behaviour around energy investment and use.
Mr Powell addressed the issue after keeping the Fed's benchmark rate steady on Wednesday (Thursday AEDT) and expressing growing confidence that there has been an easing in a perfect storm of negative factors that weighed on the global economy last year, and in spite of the coronavirus outbreak.
The Fed chairman compared the current brightening outlook – which has seen a number of high-profile forecasters including the International Monetary Fund express more upbeat prospects for 2020 – to the period from mid-2018 through the fourth quarter of 2019 when stronger US growth decoupled from weaker global growth.
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Brexit: EU leaders ratify Britain’s divorce deal
By Laurence Norman
· Dow Jones
Europe’s MEPs have ratified the agreement for the UK to leave the European Union, paving the way for the country’s departure from the bloc on Friday (Saturday AEDT) and fulfilling the outcome of its June 2016 referendum on EU membership.
The Brexit formalities will be complete once the European Council, the body representing the 27 remaining EU member states, informs the UK it has ratified the agreement, expected on Thursday afternoon (local time) in Brussels. EU leaders agreed the deal with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson last October.
Members of the European Parliament approved the agreement by 621 votes to 49, with most mainstream parties voting in favour. Thirteen MEPs abstained, most of them British remainers. In emotional scenes after the vote, hundreds of MEPs stood holding hands in the chamber, singing “Auld Lang Syne.”
After three years of often tense negotiations, the vote was one of the final acts of Britain’s 73 MEPs who step down when Britain’s 47-year membership of the bloc ends Friday midnight Brussels time (11pm UK time, 10am Saturday AEDT).
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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/how-republicans-came-to-deify-the-presidency-20200130-p53w2h
How Republicans came to deify the presidency
When US Republicans vote to acquit Donald Trump it will be the culmination of half a century of conservative thinking towards an all-powerful presidency,
Jan 30, 2020 — 11.14am
It was plain that Christian Bale is the actor of our times when he made constitutional jurisprudence sing on screen. As a fearsome Dick Cheney in Vice, he encounters, digests and then implements the “unitary executive theory”.
This lavish construal of White House power, touted by right-wing lawyers in the 1970s, sidelines those bothersome checks and balances. It was the intellectual alibi for perhaps the mightiest vice-president in US history.
This week, as Donald Trump’s lawyers fend off impeachment charges, the film rewards second viewing. The likes of Alan Dershowitz have not majored, you will notice, on the facts of the Ukraine scandal. Only so much time is spent on whether the President sought Kiev’s help against his domestic opponents, on pain of withheld aid.
Instead, the legal defence is that such behaviour lies well inside his remit anyway. The quid pro quo purportedly set out in a new book by John Bolton, the former national security adviser, is not damning, says Dershowitz, “even if true”.
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China factory activity struggles in Jan
· Reuters
Factory activity in China stalled in January, with an outbreak of a new virus adding to risks facing the economy despite easing trade tensions.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in January from 50.2 in December, China's National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, hitting the neutral 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the January headline reading to come in at 50.0.
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Brexit: Boris Johnson’s brave new world arrives
Britain is poised to throw off the shackles of the EU, turning outward to the rest of the world, including Australia, for its future prosperity.
Big Ben is out of action for repairs, so a clock face will be beamed on the scaffolding to count down the momentous seconds late on Friday that will end almost a half-century of British involvement in the European project. Around the country the historic moment may be quietly marked, and there will be sporadic Remainer protests, but Britons have acknowledged Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s emphatic 80-seat majority in the pre-Christmas general election.
Decisions on many critical issues now can be made and enforced.
After more than three years of angst since the Brexit referendum result — which involved repeated agonising votes to agree on a withdrawal deal with the EU, three prime ministers, two elections and now a hefty majority in parliament — Britain has repositioned itself to go it alone as an economic and diplomatic entity.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
