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In the USA we are seeing Trump in denial as the COVID-19 pandemic continues its growing first wave of infections with 45,000+ infections per day. For the US this news is absorbing maximum concern and maximum denial from Trump. The progressive closing down in the South and West will start to hit the US economy I fear and that will hurt as all.
In the UK Summer is in full swing and the risk is that the virus returns.
In OZ we are all worried about what is happening with the virus in Victoria and how that will affect our re-opening elsewhere in the country. Time will tell.
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Major Issues.
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Jones' new TV gig part of News Corp's game of thrones
Max Mason Media and marketing editor
Jun 22, 2020 – 12.00am
Sky News Australia's signing of Alan Jones to a new exclusive prime-time television show contract is a surprise to few, as the News Corp-owned 24-hour news channel's chief executive Paul Whittaker continues to try to build his own version of Fox News and make his pitch to Lachlan Murdoch for the top job in Australia.
Many were left scratching their heads when Whittaker's departure as editor-in-chief from Rupert Murdoch's influential national masthead The Australian was announced in October 2018.
Whittaker, better known as Boris, took the reins of The Australian in 2015, and whatever your political views, there is no denying the masthead had and still has significant pull in the corridors of power in Canberra.
When Boris' name came up in rumours to take over from Angelos Frangopoulos as chief executive of Australian News Channel, owner of Sky News Australia, many thought the idea absurd. If we're talking about the wielding of political power, The Oz trumps Sky News Australia every day of the week.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/what-s-missing-from-the-marinus-link-20200621-p554ma
What's missing from the Marinus Link
No one wants to pay for a second Bass Strait power cable to keep the mainland's lights on, because energy market design hasn't caught up to the realities of a renewables-based grid.
Matthew Warren Contributor
Jun 22, 2020 – 12.00am
It seems that everybody loves the idea of building another submerged electricity cable between mainland Australia and Tasmania. There’s just one small catch: no one wants to pay for it.
Last week, the federal government included the Marinus Link undersea transmission line in a list of 15 infrastructure projects to be fast tracked to help push economic growth post-COVID-19. Moral support for the project, but not financial.
The price might have something to do with it. Rolling out two new 750MW cables alongside the existing Basslink line will cost about $3.5 billion. That’s a lot of money for something that doesn’t generate or store electricity.
The tripling of the undersea electricity pipeline to Tasmania is critical to realising that state’s ambition of providing back-up storage for the growing herd of wind and solar farms across south-eastern Australia, or, as they more modestly like to put it, "the battery of the nation".
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Town in the Arctic Circle records temperature as hot as Florida
By Andrew Freedman
June 22, 2020 — 8.10am
Moscow: A town in Siberia is likely to have set a record for the hottest temperature in the Arctic Circle, reaching 38 degrees.
Verkhoyansk, which is 3000 miles east of Moscow and just inside the Arctic Circle, typically reaches a summer high of about 20 degrees.
If verified, this would be the hottest temperature on record in the Arctic, a region that is warming at more than twice the rate of the rest of the globe. Records in the town have been kept since 1885.
On Sunday, the same location recorded a high temperature of 35.2 degrees, showing the Saturday reading was not a fluke.
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The Australian named most trusted paper
The Australian has emerged as the most trusted newspaper brand in the country, according to the Reuters Institute’s just released Digital News Report for 2020.
While public broadcasters the ABC and SBS had the highest trust scores overall at 72 per cent and 71 per cent respectively, the annual report reveals the News Corp-owned national broadsheet to be the most trusted of its newspaper peers across print and digital with a score of 56 per cent. This compared with Nine’s The Age and Sydney Morning Herald at 54 per cent and 53 per cent respectively, the Herald Sun and The Guardian at 49 per cent and the Daily Telegraph at 47 per cent.
The study reveals that concern about misinformation in the news is high at 64 per cent.
“Compared to news sites and other social media platforms, Australians are most concerned about false or misinformation on Facebook (at 36 per cent),” the study reveals.
Facebook, the study says, is in decline as a source of news in Australia, down from providing news to 45 per cent of people in 2016 to 39 per cent in 2020.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/history-may-be-kinder-to-julia-gillard-20200622-p554tp
History may be kinder to Julia Gillard
The country's first female prime minister achieved more than her conservative critics will acknowledge.
Tom Switzer Columnist
Jun 23, 2020 – 12.00am
Tuesday marks a notable date in Australian political history – the 10th anniversary of the Labor party coup to replace Kevin Rudd with Julia Gillard. Gillard made her challenge late on June 23, 2010, and was elected leader unopposed the following day.
Her government, like that of her immediate predecessor’s, has enjoyed a terrible reputation and remains associated with drift, weakness, incompetence and broken promises. But history may yet be much kinder to our nation’s first female prime minister than many would have thought.
The knifing of Rudd and the installation of Gillard had all the hallmarks of a Shakespearean tragedy. Like many such gambits, and not only in Macbeth, this one ended badly for the assassins. The conspirators fatally stabbed someone they loathed, but as a consequence sparked a cycle of revenge knifings.
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Disgrace of Heydon is a warning to all professions
Chief Justice Susan Kiefel has effectively put on notice all the hierarchical professions that overbearing behaviour by senior men has to end.
Jun 24, 2020 – 12.00am
Former justice of the High Court Dyson Heydon is a conservative pillar of the legal establishment from central casting, a hammer of the law-breaking CFMEU in the royal commission he led into union corruption, and who was brutally frank with fellow judges on their inefficiency and inability to deliver judgments on time.
Now he is disgraced by complaints from his subordinates during his decade on the High Court to 2013 that have been endorsed by an inquiry called by his peers.
The Chief Justice of Australia, Susan Kiefel, says that the High Court is “ashamed” of Mr Heydon’s alleged sexual harassment of five of his female associates, and one other woman, revealed by a workplace inquiry there. Other senior legal women may now come forward to complain of past unacceptable treatment at the hands of others.
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Faceless men want power in Labor, not Labor in power
Don't be fooled by the factional thugs' brazen rewriting of history 10 years later, says Australia's 26th prime minister.
Kevin Rudd Former Australian prime minister
Jun 24, 2020 – 12.00am
Ten years ago, the faceless men of the factions decided to remove Australia’s democratically elected prime minister. In the decade since, they have unsuccessfully sought to construct a narrative that their motives were noble.
They weren’t. It was a crude grab for factional power which Julia Gillard was happy to accommodate to secure the prime ministership. The rest is history.
To my surprise, these last few days, the faceless men decided to give it one last burl – both in on-the-record interviews and background briefings.
You would have thought, given the Somyurek debacle, they would have had the good sense to just shut up. But arrogance is a defining characteristic of factional thugs.
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It hasn't taken Scott Morrison long to start playing friends and enemies
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
June 24, 2020 — 12.01am
A new rule of politics seems to be that no matter how badly the pollies have stuffed up some area of government responsibility, they can always make it worse. Enter the hapless federal Education Minister Dan Tehan who, doubtless acting under instructions from the boss, has just announced another set of passive-aggressive changes to university funding.
If, like a good Quiet Australian, you haven't been paying close attention, you may have gained the impression that the government is acting to help our unis to take in more local students – helping fill the vacuum left by the disappearance of overseas students – and changing the structure of tuition fees to encourage students into more occupationally oriented courses, which will make them "job-ready graduates" going into fields where the need for graduates is expected to be greatest.
You probably haven't noticed that, according to Tehan, the package includes "an additional $400 million over four years" for regional unis, and "a further $900 million" for the National Priorities and Industry Linkage Fund.
Except that the whole package is "budget neutral" – a bureaucrat's way of saying it will cost the government not an extra cent. Since the government's expecting extra demand for uni places over the next three years, this is tantamount to its first major cost-cutting exercise after taking fright at the blowout in the budget deficit caused by the lockdown of the economy. So the "extra" and "further" funding will be coming not from the government's pockets but those of the universities and their students.
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Dodgy investments stopped in their tracks
By John Collett
June 23, 2020 — 10.00pm
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission's newly acquired intervention powers will be used to stop the sale of dodgy financial products even before any sales have been made in order to head-off detriment to consumers.
It is a major change in how the financial regulator protects consumers. Previously, it had often relied on product disclosures to make consumers aware of the risks and was restricted in pre-emptive actions it could take.
ASIC will use its intervention powers to crack down on dodgy financial products before any damage is done to consumers.
In its new guide, ASIC makes clear that it is prepared to use its powers against products or classes of products "likely to harm consumers financially or were inappropriate for their needs," rather than waiting until there has been evidence of damage.
The powers have already been used to stop a payday lender and to propose a ban on some types of Contract For Difference (CFD) trading.
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Money for art’s sake: creative workers ‘in dire need of support’
Australia will lose “a generation of creative professionals” if Scott Morrison doesn’t move swiftly to support workers in the devastated arts and entertainment industries, a Senate committee into the COVID-19 response has heard.
The warning comes as the government puts the finishing touches to a rescue package for the industry, to be released this week.
The Prime Minister said on Tuesday that while some regions and sectors were “in a much better position than they were back in March … there are many others which aren’t in that position”.
Mr Morrison singled out the creative and entertainment industries as examples of devastated sectors that “have seen no change, and that’s not surprising given the social-distancing rules that apply”.
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Artificial intelligence is where our natural talents lie
Gregor Ferguson
Jun 24, 2020 – 4.45pm
Australia has been a world leader in artificial intelligence and autonomous defence technology for a couple of decades, thanks to projects such as the BAE Systems Australia Nulka anti-missile decoy.
Designed to be launched from a ship under attack, Nulka is a rocket that hovers vertically above the sea, moving slowly away from the target ship and emitting a radio signal that seduces the incoming missile towards the decoy.
BAE Systems in Melbourne successfully defeated the autonomous control challenge in making a rocket hover at exactly the right altitude and behave convincingly like a ship, says BAE Systems’ chief technology officer, Brad Yelland.
They were so successful, Nulka has been adopted by the US and Canadian navies; the company’s core technology was also selected by US giant Raytheon over US and German rivals to provide the autonomous missile control system for the Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) used by the Australian and US navies and 12 others worldwide for air and missile defence.
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Robodebt’s monumental failure can’t be ignored
The government has become very fond of using Friday afternoons to “take out the trash”. That is, to hide bad news in the lowest rating period of the news cycle, once it’s too late for the large Saturday newspaper spreads to devote themselves to the issue. The hope being that the issue will die down come Sunday.
That’s what it did a few Fridays ago with robodebt, when it announced it would be paying back more than $700m in illegally acquired debts from vulnerable Australians.
However the issue should not go away, which is one of the reasons Labor earlier this week called for a Royal Commission into the fiasco.
I can understand why many Australians might baulk at the idea of yet another Royal Commission given there have been so many in recent years. And many of them have been more about politics than policy: for example, the one the Coalition called shortly after it won the 2013 election into the union movement. Designed to damage then-Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, it was presided over by now-disgraced former High Court judge Dyson Heydon.
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The brief sparkle of better politics is over
Two prime ministerial press conferences revealed that the brief glimmering moment when our leaders seemed to make decisions in the broad public interest, rather than their own political interests, is over.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Jun 26, 2020 – 3.58pm
Here is a tale of two press conferences.
It has been a week of depressing news about job losses at Woolworths and Qantas, as well as the ABC. The reminder from Melbourne that we have not somehow dodged the pandemic was also depressing.
But if the news was depressing on both the jobs and health front, the confirmation that we have also not dodged a class of politics which thinks it is okay to tell voters black is white is equally depressing.
That brief glimmering moment when our leaders seemed to make decisions in the broad public interest, rather than their own political interests, and drew us into their frank confidence, is over.
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It's been a devastating week for the ABC, and all Australians will suffer
By Ita Buttrose
June 26, 2020 — 5.10pm
There is a reason why the majority of Australians trust the ABC.
The ABC has not only helped shape Australia, we are the national voice that unites us.
It's about democracy. Without the ABC we would have a balkanised and parochial bunch of broadcasters that are in danger of being compromised by profit and more intent on dividing than unifying.
Imagine what it would be like during the bushfire season if we had to rely only on state-based or even regionally-based media outlets. When we are in the middle of bushfires, don't we want to know that they are being covered by a knowledgeable and experienced network of journalists with all the supporting infrastructure of a large national network?
The ABC, funded by all of us, regardless of our creed – race, age, political beliefs – is us. It's the way we build cross-cultural understanding, the way we help each other in times of need. It's who we are collectively. Why would anyone want to diminish that and make us less than who we are?
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Coronavirus and its lethal politics chipping away at life as we knew it
The road to combating COVID-19 is getting longer and steeper. The strains on individual psychology and fortitude will intensify. Forecasts for the global economy were downgraded this week, while the outbreak in Victoria reminds Australians the risk from the virus lurks permanently in the shadows.
Australia is changing, perhaps less than many other nations, but the life we knew is being stripped back. That initial joy we felt a month ago that “things are opening up” is now tinged with harsh realism: short of a vaccine, there is no return to normal. For many people, any certainty about jobs, wages, retirement income and family prosperity is inexorably called into question.
Our ability to deny a second wave is now being tested in Melbourne’s suburbs. Josh Frydenberg says success in this battle is “absolutely critical”. Victorian Premier Dan Andrews, facing an erosion of confidence in his management, says the state is on a “knife edge” and is imposing 100,000 tests over the next 10 days, including many based on doorknocking.
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Government should guarantee jobs as the employer of last resort
Instead of thrashing about trying to figure out what to do with the JobKeeper allowance and JobSeeker supplement after September, the Morrison government should turn them into a permanent federal job guarantee.
Scott Morrison should go down in history as the first leader in the world to implement the great economist Hyman Minsky’s vision of the government being “employer of last resort”, as a better way of dealing with poverty than welfare.
He wouldn’t be the last if he did: we are moving inexorably into a world of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and much greater government involvement in the economy. It’s just a matter how much of a mess there is before the political classes actually do what’s necessary.
Qantas raised the prospect this week that high unemployment is going to be problem for years, and that even if the $10bn per month JobKeeper is continued it won’t help — potentially to the point where the health crisis turns into a financial crisis because of a wave of mortgage defaults.
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Senior Labor MPs demand Shaoquett Moselmane leave Parliament immediately
By Alexandra Smith and Georgina Mitchell
June 28, 2020 — 12.00am
Senior Labor frontbenchers want suspended MP Shaoquett Moselmane to resign immediately from NSW Parliament after the Berejiklian government said it would move to suspend him.
But the political future of Mr Moselmane is likely to split NSW Labor MPs, with some insisting the upper house MP deserves the presumption of innocence before his career is ruined.
Labor leader Jodi McKay asked the party's general secretary, Bob Nanva, to suspend Mr Moselmane from the party immediately on Friday after his properties were raided by federal agents as part of an ASIO investigation into possible Chinese Communist Party influence. She has been briefed by ASIO and the Australian Federal Police on the investigation into Mr Moselmane.
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Our China spy law bares its teeth with raid on Labor MP
Peter Hartcher
June 26, 2020 — 7.38pm
If there were any doubt about Australia's resolve to stand its ground in the face of a full-force pressure campaign from China, those doubts evaporated on Friday. The moment that a dozen plainclothes federal agents arrived to raid the home of a NSW member of parliament at 6.30am, Australia's response to Beijing was unmistakeable.
The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation and the Australian Federal Police raided Labor politician Shaoquett Moselmane's house in an investigation into alleged Chinese Communist Party interference in the country's democracy.
It is always a highly sensitive matter when the authorities take any action against a member of parliament, state or federal. It must always be done in strict conformity with the law, for the protection of Parliament's prerogatives and for the sanctity of the democratic system.
But when a police and intelligence action also puts the national relationship with China in the dock, it's more than sensitive. It's explosive. And it's been done in full knowledge of all the ramifications.
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Bring in the Barbarians: the Morrison government is marching us towards anti-intellectualism
By Jacqueline Maley
June 27, 2020 — 9.00pm
It’s beginning to feel like the Barbarians are in charge.
And no, I’m not talking about poor Guy Sebastian, the former Australian Idol pop star who was lambasted this week for smiling and nodding along in the background as Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced his shamefully overdue stimulus package for the arts.
For his support of the Prime Minister, Sebastian paid the usual Twitter price. He was even called a “scab” by a prominent poet, which seemed a tad harsh.
While many were misdirecting their ire at Sebastian, who was only trying to help, the larger picture was missed.
This government, led by a prime minister at pains to emphasise his ordinariness through the semaphore of sports and baseball caps, seems intent on picking fights with the arts, marching the electorate down the path of anti-intellectualism, apparently in the hope that by picking winners it can score votes.
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Bushfire Crisis And Climate Policy
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No articles in this section
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Coronavirus And Impacts.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/fresh-spike-a-blow-for-andrews-and-canberra-20200621-p554p6
Fresh spike a blow for Andrews and Canberra
Victoria was already out of step with the rest of Australia as other state governments moved to relax internal restrictions more quickly. Now a spike in in Melbourne makes the gap even wider, with warnings the economic impact will be “hard and harsh”.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun 21, 2020 – 4.03pm
The mass Black Lives Matter protests of two weeks ago look to have had only a modest direct impact on the community spread of COVID-19. But they certainly had a big psychological impact, with more people resenting restrictions still imposed on others – and particularly strictly enforced in Victoria.
Daniel Andrews will now have to pay the political cost of his decision to postpone Monday’s planned easing of restrictions in a way that would more closely match the level of economic opening in other states, including NSW. Instead, he gets to preside over Melbourne’s new pole position as Australia’s corona capital, as well as holding the national branch-stacking record. Victoria’s state of emergency is to last until mid-July.
The economic pall will not just just fall on all those Victorian restaurants, cafes, bars, gyms and cinemas which had planned to open this week under more relaxed guidelines of up to 50 people. Nor on small groups of Victorians getting together in one another’s home or outside, now halved again to five and 10 people respectively, supposedly until July 12.
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Despite the lockdown success, we're far from done with COVID-19
The curve is flat, but new modelling shows that a return to normal could bring the virus back unless we remain vigilant about social distancing.
Stephen Duckett and Will Mackey
Jun 21, 2020 – 12.38pm
It has been five months since the first coronavirus case in Australia. Since then, the combined efforts of the federal and state governments, and the people they represent, have prevented us from experiencing the disaster that is now playing out around the world.
COVID-19 didn’t fundamentally change. We did. The virus can still spread the way it has in China, then in Italy, and then the United States and the United Kingdom and Brazil, and so on, around the globe. It was stopped by our behaviour, which slowed the spread and flattened the curve.
We stopped going to major events. We greeted each other with a nod instead of a shake at work or at school or in the park. And then we stopped going into work or into school. We stopped eating in at cafes and restaurants. We stopped going to the park. Our lockdowns and social distancing efforts have driven the number of active COVID-19 cases in the community towards zero.
When our perceptions of risk are low, our behaviour might slip back to pre-pandemic ways.
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Virus effect is the elephant in the room
There is little point in talking about a second wave when the first wave has not yet finished with its job of wreaking havoc.
William Hanage Contributor
Jun 21, 2020 – 2.07pm
Vice-President Mike Pence says the United States is well positioned to handle the second wave of coronavirus infections.
This is nonsense – not least because much of the United States has not yet confronted the first wave.
The surge of infections that marked the early pandemic in the north-east of the country has been delayed elsewhere by some combination of early action (as is plausibly the case in much of California) or because those places are more sparsely populated, more dependent on cars and less reliant on public transportation or, bluntly, just luckier.
Many places haven't seen a super-spreading event – yet. We epidemiologists expect places such as New York City, where introductions of the virus and contact rates are both high, to be especially vulnerable early on.
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'We want to keep people in their homes', says CBA
James Eyers Senior Reporter
Jun 22, 2020 – 12.00am
As banks begin three-month checks on customers with deferred loans, Commonwealth Bank's retail banking boss Angus Sullivan is pledging a policy of forbearance over foreclosure.
Across the banks, just under 780,000 loans worth $237 billion have seen repayments halted, according to Australian Banking Association data published on Friday.
Of this, 485,063 are mortgages, worth $175 billion. Saturday marked three months since deferrals were first offered in response to the coronavirus, initially to small business loans and then to mortgages; most of the repayment holidays are for six months and banks pledged to check-in with customers at the half-way mark.
With CBA having hit the pause button for 127,000 customers and beginning a triage process to determine who can start repaying again, Mr Sullivan said kicking people out of their homes pledged as security for the mortgage is absolutely a last resort.
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US in a ‘forest fire’, not a second wave: Experts’ warning as coronavirus cases spike
Updated June 22, 2020 — 8.16am first published at 7.16am
Washington: Daily counts of new coronavirus cases in the US are the highest they've been in more than a month, but public health experts say "second wave" is probably the wrong term to describe what's happening.
"When you have 20,000-plus infections per day, how can you talk about a second wave?" said Dr Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health.
"We're in the first wave. Let's get out of the first wave before you have a second wave."
Florida and South Carolina had their third straight day breaking single-day records, and Missouri and Nevada both hit their records on Saturday.
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Markets are mistaken, the new normal is here to stay
The earliest economic recovery will not be until 2024-25, and bigger government is one of the long-term changes now under way, says a special adviser to the COVID-19 commission.
Andrew Liveris Contributor
Jun 22, 2020 – 1.25pm
We are in a crisis. Nobody would deny that. At some point we will all face the reality that disruption is with us for some time.
The largest social disruption in the US since the 1960s, sparked by the racially charged and tragic killing of George Floyd. The worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The greatest public health threat since the Spanish flu. All connected, all amplifying the other.
Yet we have reopened, through policy and protest alike. And no matter how uncomfortable it may make us, we must understand and challenge this “new normal” accordingly.
Markets, which we have come to view as all-encompassing judges of risk and opportunity, are reading this crisis wrong. Sharemarket optimism should be ignored. Its high-flying mood is nothing more than a punt on the flow of free money.
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Banks, APRA to soften blow as loan repayment cliff looms
The prudential regulator and the banking industry are in deep discussions about cushioning the impact of the nation’s looming financial “cliff” by trading a longer period of loan deferrals for extended capital relief.
With the current deferral scheme and government support packages due to expire at the end of September, the Morrison government, regulators and the banks are desperate to avoid the catastrophic impact on the economy and the property market of a wave of foreclosures, particularly in the lead-up to Christmas.
Negotiations are considered likely to bear fruit before the end of July, after the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority gathers more data from the banks conducting check-ins with customers three months after loan deferrals began in mid-March.
However, an industry insider cautioned against “counting your regulatory chickens before they’re hatched”, as bank support for repayment deferrals for another six months mostly depended on the capital treatment of their medium-risk loans.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/investors-dismiss-prospect-of-v-shaped-recovery-20200622-p554zy
Investors dismiss prospect of ‘V-shaped’ recovery
Attracta Mooney Contributor
Jun 22, 2020 – 2.39pm
London | Investment management professionals have rubbished the idea of a quick global recovery from the coronavirus crisis, warning of several years of stagnation and a huge risk of asset mis-pricing as stock markets become increasingly disassociated with economic activity.
The CFA Institute, the global association of investment management professionals, found only 10 per cent believe a quick “V-shaped” recovery was likely based on a survey of almost 13,300 of its members.
The vast majority expect a slower recovery: 44 per cent forecast a medium-term hockey stick-shaped recovery, which implies some form of stagnation for two to three years before a pick-up, while 35 per cent opted for a U-shaped recovery, suggesting they were mildly more optimistic in the short term.
Only 4 per cent, however, forecast long-term economic stagnation, akin to economist “Dr Doom” Nouriel Roubini’s warnings of a lost decade.
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Call to hasten tax cuts as nation faces years of low rates
By Shane Wright
June 22, 2020 — 7.45pm
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is being urged to bring forward the government's planned personal income tax cuts to deliver a much-needed boost to the post-pandemic economy as the Reserve Bank warns the coronavirus will cast a shadow for years.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the economy needed a boost to private demand and that would be best served by bringing forward the tax cuts, legislated to start from mid-2022, which would deliver a $14 billion annual boost.
Mr Frydenberg has pushed back the budget to October, with the government already warning it will show a record deficit after a huge shortfall in the current financial year. At the end of April, the budget was showing a deficit of $40 billion.
There are growing fears the economy could slow through the December quarter as key government support, including the $70 billion JobKeeper wage subsidy program, is withdrawn.
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'Nowhere near the end': Virus surge jolts prospects for world economy
By Enda Curran
June 23, 2020 — 9.32am
The global economy's fragile recovery is facing a fresh hurdle as the surge in coronavirus cases threatens to keep businesses closed and consumers on edge.
Cases of the deadly virus rose by a record for a single day on June 21, according to the World Health Organisation, with flare ups across the US and new scares in Germany and Australia. While China said the latest outbreak in Beijing is under control, other large emerging economies including Brazil, India and Indonesia continue to see cases soar.
"The fight is nowhere close to being over," said Tuuli McCully, the Singapore-based head of Asia Pacific economics at Scotiabank. "A second significant wave of infections in advanced economies is a huge risk for the global economy that is still in very early stages of recovery."
The concern comes as high frequency data tracked by Bloomberg Economics had been showing an improving picture for sectors such as transport and dining out as lockdown restrictions are eased. A sustained pickup in virus cases threatens to undermine or even reverse those trends.
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Regulators tell banks to deploy their capital buffers
James Frost Financial Services Writer
Jun 24, 2020 – 9.08am
The top financial regulators have urged banks to continue supporting businesses and households by running down capital buffers as the economy braces for the conclusion of government stimulus in September.
The Council of Financial Regulators quarterly meeting held last Friday had an upbeat tone as the group noted a nascent recovery in business activity and reduced volatility in global financial markets more generally.
They remained focused however on the role played by the banks as they worked with regulators to defer 780,000 loans worth $236 billion in a co-ordinated effort to build a bridge to the other side of the crisis.
“Members agreed that financial institutions, regulators and governments will need to continue to show flexibility in order to support the objectives of economic recovery, resilience of financial institutions, and fair household and business outcomes,” that statement released on Wednesday said.
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Genomic sleuths track the true origins of COVID-19 infections
Tom Burton Government editor
Jun 25, 2020 – 6.58pm
Victoria is using world-leading genomic fingerprinting techniques to track infections and better identify cluster sources and super spreaders.
Researchers from Melbourne University's Doherty Institute have mapped the DNA of around 80 per cent of all of Victoria's COVID-19 infections since late January, using a technique known as genomic sequencing.
The COVID-19 virus mutates regularly, enabling Doherty researchers to work with the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services to track the source and transmission chains and to stamp them out.
Each mutation is unique and enables researchers to forensically track individual clusters and the true source of the infection.
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Inside the 'Wild West' battle to secure medical supplies
Australia has been engaged in a global battle to secure enough test kits, ventilators and protective equipment to manage the virus - and it's every country for itself.
Ronald Mizen Reporter
Jun 27, 2020 – 12.00am
A convoy carrying surgical masks is stopped by police as it approaches a German airport, where a chartered jet waits on the tarmac, ready to transport the critical cargo to Australia. It’s late Wednesday, March 4.
Hours earlier, the German government passed laws prohibiting the export of personal protective equipment in response to a deadly novel coronavirus sweeping the globe. The order is cancelled, and the supplies are lost.
“When we heard what had happened, we knew [personal protective equipment] procurement was becoming like the wild west,” a person involved in securing supplies says.
The lost cargo was a blow for Australia, which had been thrust into the middle of a global battle to source critical medical supplies – including test kits, face masks, ventilators, gowns and goggles – to combat the pandemic.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-well-stocked-for-a-second-virus-wave-20200626-p556le
Australia well stocked for a second virus wave
Ronald Mizen Reporter
Jun 27, 2020 – 12.01am
As Australia faces a possible second wave of coronavirus, the health system is well prepared after one of the largest peacetime procurement efforts in the nation's history.
More than 11 million test kits, 190 million masks, 19 million gloves, 2 million gowns, 2 million goggles and 7500 ventilators have been secured since the beginning of the year, The Australian Financial Review can reveal.
But the process has not been without setbacks. Several orders for much needed ventilators were either cancelled or delayed due to sweeping powers invoked by US President Donald Trump.
The Financial Review understands orders for ventilators from manufacturers Philips and General Electric went unfulfilled due to Mr Trump's invocation of the Defence Production Act.
The act, which was passed in the 1950s, is designed to ensure the adequate supply of medical equipment to the United States. President Trump's decision to invoke the act for the COVID-19 crisis gave officials powers to force companies to prioritise US orders.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/testing-times-in-australia-s-virus-fight-20200625-p555zx
Testing times in Australia's virus fight
A spike in both infections and job losses this week has jolted the country out of its post-lockdown complacency and reminded policymakers of the challenge ahead.
Andrew Tillett Political correspondent
Jun 27, 2020 – 12.00am
Scott Morrison warned this would happen. Eight weeks ago in a speech outlining Canberra and the states' three-step plan to reopen society and kickstart the economy, the Prime Minister struck a note of caution.
Delivering a reality check after Australia's success in flattening the coronavirus curve, Morrison warned there would be further outbreaks of the disease but that was no excuse to be timid.
"We cannot allow our fear of going backwards [to stop] us going forward," Morrison said.
This week, fear returned.
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How to maximise your tax refund in the year of COVID-19
As well as ticking off your "to do" list before June 30, ensure you're making the most of ATO special concessions.
Duncan Hughes Reporter
Jun 27, 2020 – 12.00am
There are only a few days left of this tax year to make the most of new personal and business concessions aimed at helping taxpayers through a tumultuous year of COVID-19, bushfires and financial disruption.
But the Australian Taxation Office warns it is zeroing in on pandemic and other tax frauds through enhanced payroll access, information provided by super funds and even contacting employers to verify work claims.
Karen Foat, ATO assistant commissioner, says: “This year we will ask people to think about how circumstances have changed and adjust their claims accordingly. Some things people will be able to claim more, some less.”
Work-related claims
About 14 million taxpayers typically claim about $20 billion in work-related expenses, including about $8 billion for “other related expenses”, which includes people working from home, according to the ATO.
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Testing rates for returning travellers in Sydney at 98 per cent
By Caitlin Fitzsimmons
June 27, 2020 — 6.27pm
Only 2 per cent of travellers in quarantine in Sydney hotels have refused to be tested for COVID-19, NSW Health said, as the state reported six new cases on Saturday amid record testing with the onset of cold and flu season.
NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard will not make testing mandatory but has updated the public health orders to ensure returned travellers would have to stay an extra 10 days in quarantine if they refuse to be tested for the virus.
He said it was "very concerning" that about 150 people had so far refused to be tested on the 10th day of quarantine. "My view is this will encourage those who have been reluctant to be tested to actually have the test. That’s a positive outcome for the NSW community," he said.
While nobody who has refused the test has brought the virus into the community, Mr Hazzard said the government was "not prepared to run the risk going forward".
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Tourism industry braces for $55 billion hit with overseas travel likely banned until July 2021
By Mike Foley and Jennifer Duke
June 27, 2020 — 12.52pm
The Australian tourism sector is expected to cop a $55 billion hit over the next financial year amid uncertainty over the reopening of state borders and the assumption international travel bans will remain until July 2021.
Tourism expenditure is forecast to fall from $138.5 billion in 2019 to $83.8 billion, and the dire forecast is spurring warnings that regional economies will be devastated if JobKeeper payments for workers aren't extended beyond the current September end date.
The prediction comes from a report in May by the Australian Trade and Investment Commission seen by The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age. It assumes international travel bans will remain until at least July 2021 but state border restrictions will be lifted.
The economic impact could be even worse if internal travel restrictions aren't eased as anticipated, which is worrying tourism lobby groups and operators. The report shows domestic holiday activity was worth $54.3 billion in 2019, but is expected to drop 26 per cent to $40.2 billion in 2020-21.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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There are no entries in this section.
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National Budget Issues.
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Low rates for years as economy meanders: Lowe
By Shane Wright
June 22, 2020 — 11.26am
Record low interest rates will remain in place for years, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has warned while raising fears the coronavirus pandemic will cast an enduring shadow over the Australian economy.
Dr Lowe, addressing a virtual conference held by the Australian National University's Crawford School, on Monday said the pandemic had changed the mentality of consumers and would weigh on businesses and governments as they sought to recover.
The RBA has taken official interest rates to a record low 0.25 per cent, bought more than $50 billion in state government bonds and extended a $90 billion line of credit to commercial banks to lend to small and medium-sized businesses.
The government has taken official gross debt to a record $680.4 billion as it deals with a collapse in tax revenue and extra spending to help support the economy.
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Coronavirus: Shadow on economy may last for years, warns RBA Governor Philip Lowe
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has warned post-pandemic Australians will be more risk averse and less willing to spend, borrow and invest, and “unless we change something we are going to be in a world of lower (economic) growth”.
Speaking at an ANU Crawford School event on Monday morning, Dr Lowe again flagged an urgent need for reform to improve the country’s productivity, and said he had been “encouraged” by the Morrison government’s talk of reform to industrial relations, boosted infrastructure spending and a greater focus on deregulation.
“We can borrow to build a bridge but without reforms we will meander along with mediocre growth and we can’t borrow our way out of that,” Dr Lowe said.
The “shadow” cast over the economy from the pandemic “will last perhaps for years”.
“We can move out of that shadow slowly or quickly,” Dr Lowe said, and the reinvigoration of the economy will depend on the pace of technological advancement in the wake of the crisis, and how well we can implement policy reform.
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Record collapse for car, petrol imports
The COVID-19 crisis triggered a record collapse in the imports of cars and petroleum in May, while still booming iron ore exports were not enough to prevent another monthly drop in the value of exported goods.
The latest, preliminary international merchandise trade figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, showed there was a 40 per cent monthly plunge in the value of imported motor vehicles in May to $1.6bn – only half of May 2019 levels and the lowest figure since April 2011. Car imports dropped 10 per cent in April.
Imports of petroleum plunged by a third in the month to $1.2bn – the lowest in 15 years – to be 64 per cent lower than a year before. Imports of crude petroleum and aircraft fuel were the hardest hit by the decline in demand due to COVID-19 restrictions and lower oil prices, the ABS said.
The falls in petroleum and vehicles drove the overall $2.2bn, or 9 per cent, fall in imports from April’s downwardly revised figure of $21.9bn. The value of imported goods in May was $4.8bn, or 18 per cent, lower than a year earlier.
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Ending the debt and deficit fallacy
At least this pandemic might result in one good thing: the end of the notion that government deficits come from “reckless overspending” and are a “burden on our children”, and have to be paid back with budget surpluses.
They aren’t, and they don’t.
Australia’s federal deficit is probably going to balloon out to $150 billion both this year and next, and possibly more depending on what happens with the virus. Government debt will hit $1 trillion, possibly before the next election.
It would be a pretty foolish political party that described this as the result of reckless spending and a burden on future generations, and it would be completely crazy for them to campaign on paying it back.
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The RBA 'jaw-boning' experiment keenly watched by the Federal Reserve
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
June 23, 2020 — 12.41pm
One of the curious aspects of the policy responses to the coronavirus pandemic is that the Reserve Bank’s move into unconventional monetary policy territory has provoked so little discussion.
Its deployment of "yield curve control" is, however, generating increasing interest offshore.
The US Federal Reserve Board is paying close attention to the RBA’s capping of bond rates out to three-year maturities as it considers whether to add such a move to the raft of unconventional measures it has already implemented in the US.
The RBA was reluctant to go down the unconventional path before it chose the least interventionist of options, eschewing a negative cash rate or more conventional quantitative easing - the large-scale and pre-programmed purchases of bonds and mortgages to keep interest rates down and pump central-bank-created cash out into the financial system.
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Victoria pays the price for 'double standard'
The lessons of earlier delays in dealing with the cluster from Cedar Meats abattoir don't seem to have registered. The cost is now obvious statewide.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun 24, 2020 – 3.58pm
It didn’t take much for the fear, even hysteria, to return.
Long waiting lines at testing clinics in the hotspots of Melbourne; “stay away” warnings to Victorians from NSW, the only other state with open borders; even a modest run on toilet paper and other basics in suburban shopping centres.
The federal government is still relatively confident the Victorian spike in COVID-19 cases can be contained within a week or so, especially now Daniel Andrews realises his typically tough rhetoric can’t replace concerted testing and tracing, backed by household checks and localised restrictions on the ground.
After all, there were still only 20 new Victorian cases reported on Wednesday after a week of similar double-digit rises. This may sound alarming but so far doesn’t represent the exponential increases in large numbers associated with rapid, uncontrolled spread of the virus.
The transmission to the national economy as well as to the national psyche is still instantaneous, however. It’s not just other premiers blaming Victoria for possible further delays in their own proposed border openings. Given heightened community sensitivities to any repeat of the shutdowns of April and May, even encounters with Victorians are now regarded as dubious by their fellow Australians. It’s as if the entire state has suddenly become a glowing “hotspot”.
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Australia stars as IMF paints bleak pandemic picture
John Kehoe Senior writer
Jun 24, 2020 – 11.00pm
The global pandemic recession is far deeper than feared but Australia is a standout performer as the only advanced economy to have its economic outlook upgraded by the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF forecasts the local economy to contract a still hefty 4.5 per cent this year, less severe than the massive 6.7 per cent fall it tipped in April.
Economic growth is projected to recover 4 per cent in 2021.
For recovering economies like Australia, the IMF advised emergency government support such as wage subsidies should be "gradually" unwound, while adding new stimulus measures.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/struggling-arts-sector-gets-250m-lifeline-20200624-p555jj
Struggling arts sector gets $250m lifeline
The grants and low-interest loans are designed to help arts and entertainment companies get back on their feet as social distancing measures are eased.
Phillip Coorey and Tom McIlroy
Jun 24, 2020 – 10.30pm
The Morrison government will offer $250 million in grants and low-interest loans to help the struggling arts, film and entertainment sectors get back on their feet, in the latest industry-specific COVID-19 support package.
The sectors, among the worst affected by the coronavirus lockdown, will receive funding to help restart stalled productions, stage new events, and to remain sustainable while social distancing restricts audience sizes.
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Long-term ramifications of crisis are becoming clearer
Jessica Irvine
Economics writer
June 24, 2020 — 11.36pm
Another day, another media frenzy about a dire economic prediction.
To be fair, the latest set of forecasts released overnight by the International Monetary Fund is a doozy.
The previous edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook, published in April, was bad enough, titled simply The Great Lockdown and heralding an "unprecedented" decline in global economic activity.
This week's report is titled: "A crisis like no other, an uncertain recovery." I'd accuse the IMF boffins of being somewhat melodramatic if this wasn't also an entirely accurate depiction of their outlook.
The IMF is forecasting co-ordinated contractions in both advanced and emerging economies this year — the first time this has happened since the Great Depression.
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Economic outlook worsening, global debt to surpass WWII levels: IMF
By Shane Wright
June 24, 2020 — 11.00pm
The global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic is deeper and will last longer than expected with the International Monetary Fund warning nations will be left with more debt than at the end of World War II.
In an updated economic outlook released on Wednesday night, the fund expects the world's richest economies to contract by 8 per cent this year, a 1.9 percentage point downgrade from what it forecast in early April. In 2021, the same economies are expected to see growth of 4.8 per cent.
Australia will out-perform all but one of its peers, tipped to suffer a 4.9 per cent contraction this year before recovering much of that in 2021 with the economy forecast to expand by 4 per cent. Only South Korea is expected to do better, with its economy predicted to shrink by 2.1 per cent.
Compared to what the IMF was forecasting in early January, the coronavirus pandemic is expected to cost the global economy $US12.5 trillion or $18 trillion.
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Overseas coronavirus outbreaks threaten our recovery: Nev Power
National COVID-19 Coordination Commission chairman Nev Power has warned that growing coronavirus outbreaks in the US and South America could slow Australia’s economic recovery from the pandemic, and potentially even threaten the resources exports that have kept the nation’s export backbone strong.
Mr Power told a mining conference on Wednesday the commission’s work was now focusing on sectors threatened by outbreaks overseas, particularly those reliant on international travel — including tourism, the services sector and education.
“This is not just about the Australian context, but more so how other countries go,” Mr Power said. “If we look at the world around us today we see other countries in the depths of the growth of the spread of the virus, particularly South America.
“In North America as well, we’ve seen major outbreaks in Texas in the last 24 hours or so, and of course we’re all waiting and bracing for the impact as it goes through Africa and other parts of Asia.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/job-vacancies-suffer-record-fall-20200625-p5560t
Job vacancies suffer record fall
John Kehoe Senior writer
Jun 25, 2020 – 12.52pm
Job vacancies recorded their largest fall on record over the past three months and workers were laid off in record numbers in arts and recreation, accommodation and food services.
Business restrictions in response to COVID-19 caused the number of job vacancies to plunge 43 per cent over the May 2020 quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Amid widespread job cuts, some 93 per cent of businesses reported zero job vacancies last month.
Compounding the income loss from job losses, average household wealth fell $9982 or 2.3 per cent to $428,585 in the three months to March 31 due to falling superannuation balances and sharemarket losses.
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RBA wants more lending amid fears of second spike in job losses
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Jun 27, 2020 – 12.00am
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has urged bank bosses to keep lending, as he expresses fears of a second spike in unemployment when government assistance winds down after September 30 and companies restructure their operations.
Dr Lowe was speaking at a meeting on Friday afternoon organised by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to discuss with banks the need to be flexible with $226 billion in loan deferrals that are also scheduled to end on September 30.
Before the meeting, Mr Morrison confirmed there would be new government assistance packages for certain industry sectors which, due to ongoing restrictions, would not rebound as quickly as others beyond September when JobKeeper and other government assistance ceases.
But the sector-specific packages, such as those already announced for the arts, entertainment and residential housing sectors, would require additional support from the banks, as well as the industrial relations system, to maximise the prospects of recovery.
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Budget surplus replaced by largest budget deficit on record
By Shane Wright
June 26, 2020 — 1.38pm
The Morrison government has overseen the largest budget deficit in history with new figures revealing the nation's finances are $64.9 billion in the red with still another month of the financial year to run.
Data released by the Finance Department on Friday showed that through May, the budget bottom line deteriorated by $24.9 billion - or almost $1 billion a day - as tax revenues collapsed and the government sought to protect the economy from the coronavirus pandemic.
This year was supposed to show the first budget surplus in more than a decade, with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg predicting in December a $5 billion surplus for the 2019-20 financial year.
Instead, analysts now believe the deficit this year could approach $90 billion and next year's deficit climb beyond $200 billion.
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Foreign investors make huge profits in Australia, we should have a fair share
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
June 26, 2020 — 1.04pm
Australia has been a recipient of foreign investment in almost every year since the arrival of the First Fleet in 1788. Yet for much of that time the idea of foreigners being allowed to own so much of our businesses, mines, farms and land is one many ordinary Australians have found hard to accept.
For older Australians, the thought of “selling off the farm” to foreigners makes them distinctly uncomfortable. Why can’t we do it ourselves and own it ourselves?
The short answer is, we could. But had we chosen that path we wouldn’t be nearly as prosperous today as we are. As the Productivity Commission reminds us in a paper published this week, you need money to set up a business, let alone a whole industry.
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Health Issues.
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https://www.miragenews.com/pharmacy-agreement-updated-but-not-upgraded/
Pharmacy agreement updated but not upgraded
24 July, 2020
Australian patients and taxpayers will contribute more than $25 billion over five years under the new Community Pharmacy Agreement yet consumers have little effective say in this central part of the health system.
The Consumers Health Forum is disappointed that the new Seventh Community Pharmacy Agreement between the Federal Government and pharmacy owners has failed to give more weight to proposals for greater input from consumers and more transparency and deregulation to better meet community interests, the CEO, Leanne Wells, said.
The Agreement was announced on 12 June and made public on 19 June.
“Pharmacies are the most common point of contact between consumers and the health system, yet the Government and the Pharmacy Guild have declined to accept a place for the consumers at negotiations for the agreement.
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Don't bet on the death of private health insurance
Australia's private health funds reject the claim they are in a "death spiral". Mark Fitzgibbon and Craig Drummond are optimistic about the post-COVID-19 world.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun 23, 2020 – 4.36pm
Before the world heard of COVID-19, Australian health experts were declaring private health insurance to be in a “death spiral” of increasing costs and decreasing membership.
But as Australia emerges, even in fits and starts, from the health crisis, the chief executives of Australia’s two listed private health funds, Mark Fitzgibbon at NIB and Craig Drummond at Medibank Private, are sounding remarkably chipper about future prospects.
Rather than younger, healthier members continuing to opt out, for example, they insist technology will help reduce costs while new levels of coverage and efficiency will persuade more people, including healthy young people, that private insurance really does offer value for money.
The funds always rejected the idea they would make big savings from the virus due to the sudden drop in elective surgery.
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Private health insurers want rule changes to entice younger members
By Dana McCauley
June 28, 2020 — 12.00am
Health insurers are calling for rule changes to make their products more appealing to young Australians, whose exodus from funds has accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic as unemployment soars.
Funds are struggling to hang on to members despite offering temporary premium waivers, delayed annual increases and even cash-back offers for those unable to use their insurance. They say they need a long-term solution to reverse the decline.
With delayed annual premium rises due to kick in on October 1, five days before the federal budget, health funds are lobbying for changes such as allowing parents to keep children on their family policy until age 30 and allowing funds to pay for GP visits to help prevent young people from leaving the private healthcare system.
Health funds generally allow young adults to stay on their parent's policies only if they are under 25, unmarried and earning less than $20,000 a year, and the current rules prevent them from extending the age limit.
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International Issues.
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'Cold war' with China lays bare US view of Australia
The US continues to show its tendency to take Australia for granted, and to demand positions and stances on China that its junior ally simply cannot afford to deliver.
James Curran
Jun 22, 2020 – 10.02am
Even before the onset of coronavirus, it had become something of a truism to talk of US–China relations plunging into a new era of heightened geopolitical competition.
The element of danger in all this comes not from the risk of it sparking a major military conflict — which remains unlikely. It comes with the reinforcement on both sides of existing stereotypes.
If US minds are made up that China already poses an economic and military threat, then the coming of the pandemic, which has taken so many US lives and ushered in levels of unemployment approaching those seen in the Great Depression, is already intensifying the antagonism towards China in the US policy community and wider public.
Indeed, there is emerging a new consensus in Washington that the era of engagement with China, which held from the time of President Richard Nixon’s visit in 1972, is now at an end.
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COVID testing a 'double-edged sword', Donald Trump tells rally
Updated June 21, 2020 — 12.27pm first published at 8.29am
Washington: Donald Trump has told thousands of cheering supporters he had asked US officials to slow down testing for the novel coronavirus, calling it a "double-edged sword" that led to more cases being discovered.
The US President ignored health warnings to go through with his first rally in 110 days - one of the largest indoor gatherings in the world during the outbreak. It was meant to restart his re-election effort less than five months before the President faces voters again.
Trump told supporters at the event in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where many were not wearing face masks, that the US had tested 25 million people, far more than other countries.
"When you do testing to that extent, you're gonna find more people you're gonna find more cases. So I said to my people slow the testing down, please," he said.
A White House official said Trump was joking about his call for a slowdown in testing.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-rupture-with-china-is-permanent-20200621-p554r8
The rupture with China is permanent
Calls from Australian business leaders to mend the diplomatic relationship – or at least to not further widen the division - now seem from a distant political era.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Jun 22, 2020 – 4.45pm
Josh Frydenberg was keen to extend the Five Eyes intelligence grouping of Australia, the US, UK, Canada, New Zealand and Australia to finance ministers. He initiated and hosted the first such call last Friday – with more calls to be scheduled regularly. Sharing economic intelligence is as vital as sharing national security intelligence in this new COVID-19 world and of obvious benefit to Australia.
But the backdrop to the call is also the shared sense of confrontation with China among traditional Anglo allies as well as among so many of China’s near neighbours. That ranges from China's economic intrusions to more traditional military and security concerns being ramped up by China's more aggressive behaviour under Xi Jinping.
Not that Scott Morrison’s recent warning Australia is under large-scale cyber security attacks suggests any optimism China will change. Nor are cyber assaults from offshore a new threat although increasing in severity and sophistication over recent months.
It is more a prod to Australian businesses to upgrade inadequate security systems and preparations to counter such attacks. That will include closer co-operation with Australia's Cyber Security Centre and adoption of planned new industry standards.
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Coronavirus: Sharp spike in cases makes Donald Trump’s White House nervous
A sharp spike in new coronavirus cases in the United States threatens to sabotage Donald Trump’s hopes of an economic revival before the November election.
The spike, which has seen the number of new cases jump suddenly from around 20,000 per day to around 30,000 a day, is also likely to reshape the election campaign with the Trump White House reconsidering their strategy after the poor turnout at the Trump rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Health officials in the US have been alarmed by the new coronavirus trends which come as the country’s economy reopens and as people travel and socialise again after three months of virtual lockdown.
Figures show that coronavirus cases are now rising in 23 states, with 11 of those showing steep increases. The number of new cases is falling in just 17 states with rates in the other 10 states remaining steady.
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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/india-picks-a-side-in-the-new-cold-war-20200623-p5557o
India picks a side in the new cold war
There is near-consensus in Indian policymaking that China is a hostile power and the only feasible response is to move closer to the US and to Asian democracies, such as Japan and Australia.
Gideon Rachman Columnist
Updated Jun 23, 2020 – 12.27pm, first published at 9.48am
The Sino-Soviet split was a critical moment in the Cold War. A Sino-Indian split could be just as crucial to the second cold war that seems to be developing between the US and China.
Until now, the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has tried to avoid choosing sides in the fast-developing antagonism between Washington and Beijing.
But a parting of the ways between India and China now seems inevitable following last week's border clashes between the two nations' armies, which left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead and an unknown number of Chinese casualties.
Modi has met President Xi Jinping of China several times since becoming India's leader in 2014 and has made five visits there. As recently as last October, the Indian and Chinese leaders held a friendly summit, after which Modi hailed "a new era of co-operation between our two countries".
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Wall Street billionaire predicts a 'big V' economic rebound in next few months
By Heather Perlberg and Hema Parmar
June 23, 2020 — 6.08am
Steve Schwarzman, chief executive officer of Blackstone Group said the economy is likely to benefit from a V-type recovery in the next few months.
The co-founder of the world's biggest alternative asset management firm weighed in on markets in an interview during the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual event.
"You'll see a big V in terms of the economy going up for the next few months because it's been closed," said Schwarzman.
Markets are benefiting from both liquidity and optimism that the coronavirus crisis can eventually be contained, Schwarzman said, but he cautioned on the economy, "It'll take quite a while before we sync up and get back to 2019 levels."
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Fauci says US is seeing a 'disturbing surge' in coronavirus infections
June 24, 2020 — 3.50am
New York: Dr Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious disease expert, says the country is seeing a "disturbing surge" of coronavirus infections and that the next two weeks will be critical to tamping down hotspots around the US.
Testifying before the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Tuesday, Dr Fauci also said that the White House coronavirus taskforce was never told to slow down testing, seemingly contradicting comments by President Trump just hours earlier.
Four top US public health officials and members of President Donald Trump's coronavirus task force said that he has not asked them to slow down testing for the virus.
Trump has repeatedly said that better US testing has led to a higher number of identified coronavirus cases across the country, and at a political rally on Saturday said he had asked "my people" to "slow the testing down" because increased screening was revealing more infections, making the country look bad.
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Australians' trust in China and the US dropping rapidly: Lowy poll
By Anthony Galloway
June 24, 2020 — 12.00am
Australians feel less safe, increasingly distrustful of China, disappointed in the United States and fear the economy is about to tank, according to an annual survey by the Lowy Institute, but there is some good news.
As coronavirus continues to ravage countries around the globe, faith in Beijing has fallen to record lows with only 23 per cent of Australians trusting China to act responsibly in the world, a 29-point drop in only two years.
Only 22 per cent say they have confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing in world affairs, down from 43 per cent in 2018, while nine in ten Australians want the government to look for other markets to reduce our economic dependence on China.
According to the think tank's annual survey of local attitudes towards the world, a bare majority of Australians (51 per cent) trust the United States "a great deal" or "somewhat" to act responsibly in the world, 30 percentage points lower than the high point in 2009.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/america-is-leaving-a-dangerous-post-virus-vacuum-20200624-p555j6
America is leaving a dangerous post-virus vacuum
The US should be mobilising the world's investible funds. Instead its economic policy is becoming bogged in partisanship and market distortion.
Mohamed El-Erian Contributor
Jun 24, 2020 – 1.30pm
What does the future hold for the global economy? As it stands, the most likely answer, unfortunately, is lower growth, worsening inequality, distorted markets and rising financial risks. But this outcome is not preordained. With timely changes to the policy paradigm, policymakers can lay the groundwork for a more dynamic, inclusive, and resilient economy.
The economic damage wrought by the COVID-19 crisis in the second quarter of 2020 was even worse than expected: economic activity plummeted, inequality rose, and elevated financial markets decoupled even more from economic reality. And with a vaccine yet to be developed, the path out of the pandemic – and the associated economic crisis – remains deeply uncertain.
The world’s leading international economic institutions – the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and the World Bank – now warn that it may take at least two years for the global economy to regain what has been lost to COVID-19. If the major economies face additional waves of infections, recovery would take even longer.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-war-on-supply-chains-20200624-p555l1
The dangerous war on supply chains
Trade is a vital part of the global response to a pandemic, including the creation and distribution of the vaccine we need. Trade must also remain a large part of the global economy more broadly.
Martin Wolf Columnist
Jun 24, 2020 – 10.41am
"One of the things that this crisis has taught us, sir, is that we are dangerously overdependent on a global supply chain for our medicines, like penicillin; our medical supplies, like masks; and our medical equipment, like ventilators.”
Thus, did Peter Navarro, an influential adviser of US President Donald Trump, draw lessons from the COVID-19 crisis for American trade policy.
This view is seductive to protectionists. But it is wrong. The lesson from the crisis is to be better prepared. Self-sufficiency in “essential products” would not be a good way to achieve this. On the contrary, it would be a costly error.
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America's virus battle is on the verge of disintegration
Jacob Greber United States correspondent
Updated Jun 25, 2020 – 7.54am, first published at 7.40am
Washington | America's months-long battle to contain the coronavirus is on the verge of disintegrating as infection numbers accelerate alarmingly across dozens of states in a sign that early easing of restrictions last month is backfiring.
Even as reports emerged that the White House is preparing to halt federal funding for testing, nine states reported record rolling seven-day average infections, while California, Florida, South Carolina and Oklahoma posted single-day highs.
More than 36,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported on Wednesday (Thursday AEST), the most in a single day after beating the previous 34,203-case record on April 25. The surge takes the US total to more than 2.3 million cases with at least 120,000 Americans dead.
Wall Street tumbled as investors bailed out of hotels, airlines, casinos and even beer brewers, on fresh fears of a surge in numbers and the governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut - the tri-state epicentre of the first surge in cases in March, April and into May - said they would enforce a 14-day quarantine for visitors from nine mostly southern states where there is now "significant community spread".
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Grief rocks the Muslim world as Islam's holiest sites off limits
Saudi Arabia has effectively cancelled the hajj for the first time in history, leaving millions devastated.
Ben Hubbard and Declan Walsh
Jun 25, 2020 – 6.23am
For much of his life, Abdul-Halim al-Akoum stashed away cash in hopes of one day travelling from his Lebanese mountain village to perform the hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca that all Muslims who can are obliged to make once in their lives.
He was all set to go this year until the coronavirus pandemic forced Saudi Arabia to effectively cancel the hajj for what some scholars say may be the first time in history.
"It is the dream of every Muslim believer to visit Mecca and do the hajj," says al-Akoum, 61, a village official. "But the pandemic came with no warning and took away that dream."
The Saudi announcement sent shock waves of sadness and disappointment across the Muslim world, upending the plans of millions of believers to make a trip that many look forward to their whole lives and which, for many, marks a profound spiritual awakening.
A 72-year-old retired port worker in Pakistan will stay home, despite his six children having pooled their money to finance his trip. A mother in Kenya will forgo visiting sites she has long dreamed of seeing. An Egyptian school administrator named Zeinab Ibrahim burst into tears.
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China wants a compliant Australia, Malcolm Turnbull says
By James Massola
June 25, 2020 — 5.00am
China expects Australia to be "compliant" with its aggressive foreign policy moves, treating it not as an equal in power but as a weaker country, according to former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
In an exclusive interview with The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, Mr Turnbull also said China had developed islands in the South China Sea to such an extent that, short of "kinetic action" or warfare, there was nothing south-east Asian countries — or the United States, Japan and Australia — could do to demilitarise them.
China had "created facts on the ground, above the water, in a way that is quite contrary to international law", Mr Turnbull said.
"That's been determined by the court in The Hague. Unless you are prepared to take kinetic action, there is nothing you can do about those islands," he said referring to The Philippines' 2016 win in the International Court, which ruled against China's claim to historic rights over most of the South China Sea.
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Bolton’s book is a terrifying warning about what Trump could still do
Former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened, shows geopolitical ignorance is no longer funny when it jeopardises safety.
Jim Townsend
Jun 25, 2020 – 9.49am
Americans’ notorious lack of geographic knowledge has given rise to a staple of television comedy: the person-in-the-street ambush interview, where the hapless victim is often asked to point out countries or US states on a map. Hilarity ensues.
Former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened, features another hapless American wrestling with geographic questions, such as whether Finland is part of Russia. The problem with this comic setup, of course, is that the scene is playing in the White House, and the not-so-hapless victim is the President of the United States.
Geopolitical ignorance ceases to be funny when pratfalls affect US national security. Trump’s ignorance about the role allies and NATO play in US national security has led him to say and do things in Europe that have led allies’ trust in the US to plummet.
His earliest interaction with NATO in 2017 had him question the US commitment to the alliance’s mutual defence guarantee – Article 5, its very reason for existence – and it got worse from there. His ignorance of how NATO is funded and of where allies are in fact deficient has led him to charge that allies are taking advantage of the US.
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Disaster unfolding in the US as virus resurgence hits new peaks
By Nomaan Merchant
June 25, 2020 — 1.47pm
Houston: A coronavirus resurgence is wiping out two months of progress in the US and sending infections to dire new levels across the nation's south and west, with hospital administrators and health experts warning that politicians and a tired-of-being-cooped-up public are letting a disaster unfold.
Coronavirus cases are climbing rapidly among young adults in a number of US states where bars, stores and restaurants have reopened - a disturbing generational shift that not only puts them in greater peril than many realise but poses an even bigger danger to older people who cross their paths.
The US recorded a one-day total of 34,700 new confirmed COVID-19 cases, the highest level since late April, when the number peaked at 36,400, according to a count kept by Johns Hopkins University. The Washington Post recorded 38,115 US infections on Wednesday, more than any previous day in the pandemic, and the New York Times put the figure at 36,126, the nation's second highest daily figure, and the highest in months.
While newly confirmed infections have been declining steadily in early hot spots such as New York and New Jersey, several other states set single-day records this week, including Arizona, California, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas and Oklahoma. Some of them also broke hospitalisation records, as did North Carolina and South Carolina.
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US faces bleak scenario of death and disruption
America is losing the fight against itself and a pandemic that doesn’t recognise political divisions.
Jacob Greber United States correspondent
Jun 26, 2020 – 1.30pm
Driving through New York early this week for the first time since January was a revelation. Despite having shifted just that morning to “phase two” of the city’s long-awaited reopening – which allows restaurants to offer outdoor dining for the first time since mid-March – Manhattan was still, remarkably, a ghost town.
It took less than seven minutes to drive from the Holland Tunnel exit southward beneath Battery Park and back north along FDR Drive to Midtown, looping around the bottom of the island. As any New Yorker will tell you – try that on a normal Monday morning and those 10 kilometres could take you an hour. Most don't even bother.
But almost at the same time as New York gets a green light to slowly creep back to life after months hosting America's COVID-19 ground zero, other parts of the country are only now beginning their journeys into the nightmare stage of this pandemic.
Incredibly, and despite all the economic devastation of social distancing, America has resolutely failed to “flatten” its curve and now sits on the cusp of more disaster.
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Democracies must show China what we stand for
Chris Patten
It is necessary to know some history in order to draw the right lessons from it. All too often, alleged parallels and similarities seem far-fetched on close examination. So, when it was suggested recently that China’s recent behaviour — bullying, lying, and violating treaties — was similar to that of Germany prior to World War I, I was doubtful.
In 1911, for example, Germany’s Wilhelm II provoked an international crisis by deploying a gunboat to Agadir, Morocco to try to squeeze concessions out of France and drive a wedge between that country and Britain. Instead, the episode convinced France and Britain of Germany’s aggressive intentions — a conclusion borne out three years later by the outbreak of war.
Maybe it is too pessimistic to draw similar conclusions today about the behaviour of the Communist Party of China. But the events of the past few months surely call for a co-ordinated response by the rest of the world, and especially by liberal democracies. If Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aggressive behaviour is to be discouraged, we need to get together and stick together.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
