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The only real news this will has been with
Trump being felled by the COVID-19 and the ramifications for his health and the
election. Very much a watch this space situation! Amazingly he has been in hospital - given all sorts of treatment and has now been discharged back to the White House. He claims to be perfectly well but who knows. His doctors seemingly are clueless!
In the UK it is clear that the second wave is well and truly underway and not by any means under control. It could get a great deal worse.
Now we have seen the budget I am sure many are still wondering just what is means for the future. Many say women have been ignored. I suspect it will take weeks to work through it all. Otherwise we seem to have the virus under control which should mean we are at the bottom – save another big outbreak. Issues overseas and locally (aged care etc.) rumble on and are not exactly solved!
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Major Issues.
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The new nationalism shaping Australia's strategic challenge
Despite what alliance nostalgists wish for, Australia can no longer rely on US exceptionalism to manage China's nationalist assertiveness.
James Curran Contributor
Sep 27, 2020 – 2.01pm
It is now an article of faith that coronavirus has intensified existing strategic trends in world politics.
Chief among these has been the "return" of nationalism.
The globe’s most urgent issue is being tackled almost exclusively on a national basis.
But it was not supposed to be like this.
Thirty years ago the conventional wisdom across much of the Western world was that nationalism was no longer needed. The circumstances that gave rise to it had passed. A new post-nationalist era had arrived.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/when-freedom-of-speech-is-in-transition-20200929-p5608l.html
When freedom of speech is in transition
Anti-discrimination commissions have tyranny built into their design.
Chris Uhlmann
Nine News Political Editor
September 30, 2020 — 12.00am
God deliver us from the hands of zealots.
They exist in different guises in every age, lay claim to being the era’s moral guardians and demand no more than complete obedience to their ordained order. They only burn heretics in sorrow, for their own good and that of society.
Zealots know those who defy them are sinners. So, any means is justified in the restless hunt for evil.
Arthur Miller explained it in The Crucible: “… the necessity of the Devil may become evident as a weapon, a weapon designed and used time and time again in every age to whip men into a surrender to a particular church or church state.”
Now the bureaucratic state dictates morality and the devil is discrimination, in all his endlessly evolving forms. The crime is giving any perceived offence. The weapon is the law.
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It's about to get tougher for retirees living off their savings
John Collett
Personal finance editor
September 29, 2020 — 10.30pm
If the Reserve Bank of Australia cuts the official cash rate again, perhaps as early as next week, the screws will be further tightened on retirees who live off their savings.
The central bank cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25 per cent in March. Money markets are expecting the rate to be cut again by the end of the year. It could be as early as October 6, the day the federal budget is handed down.
That would be good news for those shopping for a new home, with a typical variable interest rate of 3 per cent likely to go lower – at least for new customers.
Already, major lenders have been cutting their mortgage rates.
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Up to half of university researchers face axe: expert
Sally Patten and Finbar O'Mallon
Sep 30, 2020 – 5.11pm
Up to half of Australia's university researchers are at risk of losing their jobs because of funding shortfalls caused by the coronavirus pandemic, a higher education expert says.
University of Melbourne emeritus professor Frank Larkins said an increase in domestic students could help mitigate some funding losses.
"But the staff vulnerability – at least a third of them, maybe up to half, including the postgraduate students are going to be under great pressure," he told The Australian Financial Review Higher Education Summit on Wednesday.
"About half [of research funding] is coming from discretionary funds. If you solve that problem ... their jobs would not be as vulnerable."
Universities are facing a funding shortfall brought on by border closures keeping out critical full-fee paying students.
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Trump tests positive for coronavirus
Jacob Greber United States correspondent
Updated Oct 2, 2020 – 3.14pm, first published at 1.35pm
Washington | President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump have both tested positive to COVID-19 and will now quarantine in the White House just 32 days out from the election.
The couple were tested close to midnight on Thursday US time (Friday AEST) after one of Mr Trump's advisers, Hope Hicks, tested positive.
The stunning development sent the 2020 election campaign into fresh turmoil, shook stock futures and raised questions about who else might have been infected, including Joe Biden who stood on a debate stage beside Mr Trump for more than 90 minutes on Monday.
Mr Trump announced he and Ms Trump tested positive to the virus and would begin “our quarantine process immediately".
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Definition of 'academic freedom' edited amid drafting concerns
By Lisa Visentin
October 4, 2020 — 12.00am
The former High Court chief justice who recommended an academic freedom definition be made law later agreed to remove the most contentious element after universities raised concerns.
A version of Robert French's definition of academic freedom will be legislated in university funding reforms after One Nation demanded it in exchange for supporting the government's bill.
In his government-commissioned report into free speech at Australian universities, Mr French proposed inserting a lengthy definition into the Higher Education Support Act that included a broad freedom of academic staff to teach, discuss, and disseminate their research.
The definition also said academic staff would have the freedom to "make lawful public comment on any issue in their personal capacities" and that this should occur "without constraint imposed by reason of their employment by the university".
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Coronavirus And Impacts.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-to-reopen-australia-s-international-borders-20200927-p55zq4
How to reopen Australia's international borders
Zoom is no substitute for human contact. As state borders re-open, we need a plan to re-open Australia to the world.
Nathan Grills and Antony Blakely
Sep 28, 2020 – 1.13pm
Australia seems to be moving towards agreement in principle to open domestic state borders – although the devil and disagreements will be in the details.
What could be a plan for our international borders?
First, we need to understand that our stated national goal remains elimination of community transmission through an aggressive suppression strategy.
And not a deliberate elimination strategy as in New Zealand. What is the difference? Not much, but it matters here.
Both strategies use the same tools (staged restrictions, contact tracing and so on). Both strategies can achieve elimination. But aggressive suppression will loosen restrictions earlier, relying more on contact tracing and testing to mop up cases.
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Coronavirus: Elimination strategy ‘will cost us $319bn’
The cost of trying to eliminate the coronavirus from Australia is more than annual government spending on defence, education, health and social security combined, according to new economic modelling released by a free-market think tank.
From June this year to the middle of 2022, the “elimination strategy” being pursued by state and federal governments will cost $319bn, equivalent to 23 per cent of GDP, the report, Medical Capacity: An Alternative to Lockdowns, has estimated.
“Put another way, the cost is the equivalent to 2.2 times the total annual value of Australia’s entire healthcare and social assistance industry,” the report, written by research director Daniel Wild and Institute of Public Affairs associate Asher Judah, concluded.
The report comes amid debate about the proportionality of Victoria’s ongoing lockdown, which is set to last at least another three weeks, and ahead of the federal government’s budget, expected to reveal the biggest deficit since the 1940s.
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BoQ takes $175m provision for souring loans
Michael Roddan Senior companies reporter
Sep 29, 2020 – 9.25am
Bank of Queensland has taken a sharply dimmer view of the potential economic recovery out of the coronavirus pandemic, as it books a $175 million provision for souring loans following the "increased probability" of "downside and severe case" scenarios in its modelling.
The ASX-listed lender revealed $175 million worth of souring loans on its books after it modelled the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on employment, falling house prices and the "increased duration" of the economic downturn.
In an update to the market on Tuesday, the Queensland-based lender said the loan impairment for its 2020 financial year would equate to 37 basis points of gross loans.
The impairment was heavily weighted to the back end of the year, with just $10 million pre-tax booked in the first half, compared to $123 million in the latter half.
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The 15 failures of Victoria's hotel quarantine program
Tom Burton Government editor
Sep 30, 2020 – 9.11am
After weeks of hearings and nearly 300,000 pages of documents what went wrong with Victoria's quarantine program is clear for all to see:
1. A seeding ground
The hotel quarantine program had only one job: to stop infection leaking from infected overseas travellers. But instead of containing the disease, hotels instead became "a seeding ground" for the spread of COVID-19 into the broader community.
This basic failure meant the actual program to protect Victorians from overseas infections, created the very circumstances it was meant to prevent – an outbreak of the virus.
2. Infection control
Infection prevention and control measures that were meant to keep detainees, staff, security and the community safe were ad hoc and inadequate, not just at the two hotels that caused the infection leak but across the entire hotel quarantine program.
This was not fixed till the set up of a proper infection hotel in mid-June, well after the virus had escaped.
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If you do health admin on the cheap, don’t be amazed if things go wrong
Governments have spent decades cutting corners, with a big drop in quality control. Now the virus has caught them out.
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
September 30, 2020 — 12.00am
In my game, where you spend years watching the antics of politicians and bureaucrats from a ringside seat – say, watching the inquiry into Victoria's tragic hotel quarantine debacle – you tend to become cynical. But not as cynical as a gym buddy of mine, who's had much experience of such inquisitions.
He says that when everyone's denying having made the fateful decision, but saying they don't know who did make it, it's usually a sign they're trying not to dob in the boss.
It's possible the boss in question was now-departed health minister Jenny Mikakos, but I doubt it. Bureaucrats from one department don't usually cover for some other department's minister.
One thing I've noticed over the years is that when the hue and cry is closing in on the really big political boss, it's not surprising to see someone else take the dive on their behalf. If it's a public servant writing the so-sorry-I-misled-you-prime-minister letter, they can expect to be looked after in their next appointment. When it's another minister, it's usually less congenial.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-the-recession-is-not-as-bad-as-feared-20201001-p560xl
Why the recession is not as bad as feared
John Kehoe Senior writer
Oct 2, 2020 – 8.51am
The COVID-19 recession recovery will be better than expected due to half a million people staying on our shores in response to international border restrictions, according to new economic modelling by former top Treasury forecaster Peter Downes.
Canberra-based Mr Downes said it felt like "déjà vu all over again" from the 2008 global financial crisis and 1997 Asian financial crisis when markets and official forecasters were ultimately proven too pessimistic about the negative impact on Australia's economy.
"The hole due to the COVID-19 crisis hasn’t been as deep and prospects might be a bit brighter than we thought," said Mr Downes, who was one of the very few forecasters in the GFC to accurately predict Australia would avoid recession.
"The best-case scenario is the economy recovers very quickly next year if Victoria gets the virus under control and other states continue to have virtually no community transmission."
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Erratic, unpredictable and unusual: what GPs have learnt about COVID-19
By Henrietta Cook
October 3, 2020 — 12.15am
It seemed a certainty – the middle-aged smoker would succumb to coronavirus after sharing a bed with her feverish daughter.
But to the surprise of her GP, Dr Hanna El-Khoury, the woman never fell ill despite her daughter later testing positive to COVID-19.
"We don't know who is going to catch it," Dr El-Khoury said.
It's been more than seven months since Victorian GPs started treating coronavirus patients and in that time they’ve learnt a lot about the quirks of the deadly and unusual disease that has ground Melbourne to a halt.
For many GPs, it's the unpredictability of the virus that really stands out.
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Climate Change
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No entries this week.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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Top bureaucrats blamed for bungled hotel quarantine
Hannah Wootton Reporter
Sep 28, 2020 – 1.31pm
Victoria's top bureaucrats failed to brief the Premier and ministers on problems in the state's hotel quarantine program before it was too late, an inquiry into the scheme heard on Monday.
This was a "loss in opportunity" to fix problems before they let loose Victoria's tragic second coronavirus wave, senior counsel assisting the inquiry, Tony Neal, QC, said in closing submissions that laid blame for 768 COVID-19 deaths largely at the door of the health department.
It also revealed a concerning lack of accountability and attitude towards transparency within the senior ranks of the public service, he said.
The submissions wrap up 25 days of hearings, which culminated in explosive evidence from Daniel Andrews on Friday prompting the resignation of Health Minister Jenny Mikakos.
Ms Mikakos stepped down on Saturday after the Premier told the inquiry that she was accountable for the botched program, from which 99 per cent of the state's second wave of COVID-19 cases have stemmed.
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'Traumatised': Aged care virus planning was insufficient, confused
Tom McIlroy Political reporter
Oct 1, 2020 – 5.57pm
The Coalition government's handling of the COVID-19 threat to Australians living in aged care was "insufficient" and suffered from confused and inconsistent messaging, a new report has found.
Releasing a special report into the coronavirus crisis, the aged care royal commission warned a comprehensive, defined and consolidated plan to manage outbreaks in facilities was still badly needed, describing the sector's workforce as under-resourced and overworked.
"It is now also traumatised," the report released on Thursday afternoon said.
After more than 665 deaths in aged care and thousands of infections among staff and residents around the country, the report called for specialist infection control experts to be deployed to all facilities and a new national advisory body be created.
It would operate alongside the existing federal government regulator and the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee [AHPPC]. The report also called for increases in allied health services and mental health support.
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National Budget Issues.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-s-1-trillion-budget-burden-20200927-p55zlt
We must shoulder $1 trillion debt burden
The immense cost of COVID-19 puts the onus on the present generation to do everything they can to lift the productivity of the economy to reduce the debt and deficit burden for future generations.
Warren Hogan Columnist
Sep 27, 2020 – 3.02pm
The Treasurer last week outlined the government’s new fiscal strategy adapted for the post-COVID-19 world. The long-term budget target is no longer to achieve a surplus. The new target is to stabilise debt as a share of GDP once the economy is thriving again and then to gradually shrink that debt as a proportion of GDP.
The main message from the Treasurer is there will be no austerity from this government. Indeed, the government is prepared to run historic, unprecedented budget deficits for a number of years to ensure the economy is in a position to recover strongly.
Over time, it will seek to grow the economy to stabilise the government’s financial position. This strategy should neutralise the political attacks from the left that the government is not doing enough, while allowing the focus of policy actions to be on reviving a strong private sector economy.
This strategy has two distinct phases. The first phase aims to entrench a new economic expansion that takes the unemployment rate "comfortably" below 6 per cent . Once a strong private sector-led recovery is in place, the second phase will seek to stabilise government debt levels as a proportion of GDP.
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Australia’s resource exports face $40bn hit over next two years
Australia’s resource exports are tipped to collapse by almost $40bn in the next two years — $10bn deeper than the federal government’s June forecast — with Canberra forecasting a downturn in energy exports and a cooling of prices.
The government’s September quarterly report into the resources sector has revealed an uneven performance among key commodities, with strong conditions for gold and iron ore but significant falls in demand and prices for coal and LNG.
After resources exports hit a record $290bn last financial year — with iron ore topping $100bn for the first time — Canberra is now expecting values to fall to $256bn in 2020-21 and $252bn the following financial year. This represents a downward revision of $7bn and $3bn, respectively, from the June quarter estimate.
Iron ore prices are expected to account for half the slump, diving from a record $102bn to $80bn. But even at that level, prices for the key commodity will remain at historically high levels, eclipsing the previous record of $78bn from 2018-19.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/a-decade-of-budget-repair-ahead-20200923-p55y9c
A decade of budget repair ahead
Sarah Turner Reporter
Sep 28, 2020 – 12.00am
It will be at least a decade before the federal budget is balanced, according to the country's leading economists, who want the government to bring forward tax cuts and promise infrastructure spending on October 6 to arrest a forecast 8 per cent unemployment rate and lift the economy out of recession by the end of the year.
The economy is on track for a record $225 billion deficit in financial 2021, and reforms will be needed to achieve fiscal repair, economists agree ahead of the federal budget on Tuesday next week.
That won't be easy: The Australian Financial Review's latest survey indicates a 4 per cent GDP contraction for the 2020 calendar year, according to the median of 29 respondents. That improves to a contraction of 2.2 per cent by June 2021, and growth of 2.6 per cent by the end of the 2021 calendar year.
The September quarter survey reveals expectations have worsened since the June quarter, which took place before Victoria moved to a stage four lockdown in response to surging COVID-19 cases. As Commonwealth Bank's chief economist for Australia Gareth Aird put it: "The economy would be growing a lot more quickly if not for Victoria."
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/top-earners-will-stay-more-after-the-tax-cuts-20200927-p55zly
Top earners will still pay more after the tax cuts
Chris Richardson Contributor
Sep 28, 2020 – 12.01am
Budget night next week looks like it will bring forward the arrival of billions in personal tax cuts.
That brings three huge questions into play: are these cuts fair? Are they too big? And are they good stimulus?
All three questions are vital, but to date the debate over these dollars has been all about their fairness – or rather, their perceived unfairness. Twitter seemingly sees these looming tax cuts as the spawn of Satan.
Is that right? Umm, that would be a no. The tax cuts will have little to no impact on the shares of personal tax paid at different income levels – including at the top end of the scale.
Treasury’s analysis released with last year’s budget showed that the “before" and "after" shares of tax paid by the top 1 per cent and the top 5 per cent of taxpayers would go up a little once all three stages of the tax plan are in place, while the share paid by the top 10 per cent and top 20 per cent would go down a little.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/jobs-trigger-will-take-four-years-20200927-p55zm4
Budget jobs trigger will take four years
John Kehoe Senior writer
Sep 28, 2020 – 12.00am
It will take more than four years and at least another election for the federal government to achieve its new economic goal of a jobless rate "comfortably" below 6 per cent and to stabilise public debt, according to new analysis ahead of the budget next week.
The Deloitte Access Economics report also backs the government's plan to accelerate personal income tax cuts to help revive the economy from recession, dismissing the claim they are "unfair" and calculating that high-income earners will pay a larger share of the nation's tax burden than before.
As questions were asked about why the government chose the sub-6 per cent unemployment trigger to wait for budget repair, a senior government source told The Australian Financial Review it was based on Treasury advice to limit long-term unemployment "scarring" – where the unemployed find it harder to get a job the longer they are out of the workforce – and in line with the 5.7 per cent jobless rate when the Coalition took office in 2013.
A separate quarterly survey of the nation's top economists by the Financial Review reveals that it could take a decade to end a run of budget deficits because of the lingering impact of the COVID-19 recession on workers, households and business.
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'Budget bent but not broken': Analysts urge Frydenberg not to scrimp on stimulus
By Shane Wright
September 28, 2020 — 5.00am
The coronavirus recession has bent but not broken the federal budget, one of the nation's chief forecasters believes, as economists urge Treasurer Josh Frydenberg not to scrimp on stimulus measures despite facing a deficit of $200 billion.
As Mr Frydenberg spent the weekend working on the finishing touches to his budget speech, to be delivered to Federal Parliament on October 6, Deloitte Access Economics said it expected the Treasurer to unveil a deficit of at least $198.5 billion.
Deloitte's forecast, which does not take into account any extra stimulus spending announced on budget night, also points to ongoing issues.
It is expecting a deficit of $45.1 billion in 2021-22, which is likely to be an election year. The following year, the deficit is tipped to be $25.6 billion.
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The RBA and government must both say they will do whatever it takes
The Reserve Bank is now expected to announce another round of monetary policy easing, either on budget day next week or a month later.
The thinking is that each of the cash rate target, the rate on the term funding facility for banks and the target rate for three-year bonds will be cut from 0.25 per cent to 0.1 per cent, and also that a certain amount of 5-10 year bonds will be bought in a full quantitative easing program.
In other words, “whatever it takes” time may be approaching.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe had previously said that 0.25 per cent was the effective lower bound for interest rates in Australia, but it turns out he was just kidding: 0.1 per cent is the lower bound, really.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/this-debt-cannot-just-be-ignored-20200927-p55zq3
This debt cannot just be ignored
Politicians have become blase about the billions of dollars they're handing out. But this is a supply-side crisis that needs a supply-side fix.
Andrew Stone Contributor
Sep 28, 2020 – 11.53am
Politicians are often urged: “Never let a crisis go to waste”. But for Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, a better injunction would be “never let a crisis lead to waste”.
The crisis is the virus pandemic – or, rather, the economic and fiscal mayhem wrought by the policy response to it.
For months we have known that this virus is more dangerous than the flu for a small part of the population – primarily the elderly with serious pre-existing medical conditions – but less dangerous for the great majority, especially those under 40.
The sensible response would therefore have been targeted measures to protect and help at-risk groups. This could have been done lavishly for a small fraction of the expenditure to date.
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The government's move to trash lending rules during a recession is a recipe for disaster
Investigative journalist and columnist
Updated September 25, 2020 — 1.55pmfirst published at 12.20pm
It was pitched as an "adrenalin shot into the economy" but the Morrison government’s decision to trash responsible lending laws will inevitably result in a return to the bad old days of loose credit and a debt binge.
At a time when many Australians are praying they will have a job at the end of COVID-19 and are struggling to pay rents or mortgages, the government’s grand plan is to ease credit.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and the Minister for Finance Mathias Cormann speak to the media.
That it eased the laws on the same day that Westpac copped the biggest fine in Australian corporate history beggars belief.
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Australian domestic air traffic collapsed in August
Timothy Moore Online editor
Sep 30, 2020 – 4.08am
Global airline traffic is now expected to fall 66 per cent this calendar year compared with 2019, the International Air Transport Association said; it previously forecast a 63 per cent drop.
"International demand recovery is virtually non-existent and domestic markets in Australia and Japan actually regressed in the face of new outbreaks and travel restrictions," Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general, said in a statement.
IATA said global domestic traffic - revenue passenger kilometres - fell 50.9 per cent in August; a mild improvement compared with a 56.9 per cent decline in July.
Domestic capacity - available seat kilometres - fell 34.5 per cent and load factor dropped 21.5 percentage points to 64.2 per cent.
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Will Josh Frydenberg be outmatched by the recession?
Australia's Treasurer wants to lead the country one day. But first the “glass-half-full guy” needs to lead the nation out of recession.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Sep 30, 2020 – 12.00am
Large smiling photographs dominate the wall next to Josh Frydenberg’s desk in his Melbourne office. There’s Josh beaming alongside Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop, Josh in cycling gear with Tony Abbott, Josh at John Howard’s desk in Canberra, Josh shaking hands with Alexander Downer.
Underneath the images of political power at play, a jumble of other large framed photos and memorabilia is piled at angles. On the adjacent wall, portraits of Frydenberg’s predecessors in the seat of Kooyong, including Robert Menzies and Andrew Peacock, stare sombrely – standard bearers of a truly different era in politics.
“To understand where you’re going, you have got to understand where you came from,” Frydenberg says as he bounds around the room pointing out other favourite historical mementos. And the photographic record certainly reflects what a charmed political life Josh Frydenberg had already enjoyed under a range of prime ministers and mentors – well before the Liberal Party’s implosion skyrocketed him into the role of deputy leader and Treasurer two years ago.
It’s also why another main feature in the room is a large umbrella and lighting for a makeshift TV studio. Frydenberg has always been relentless in selling himself and his message, now more than ever. No one has ever questioned his tireless work ethic – and sensitivity to media, apparent in the flood of calls and texts to journalists from early morning to late at night. But his style has become a running joke among some less assiduous colleagues. In the Frydenberg household the favourite TV show is Have You Been Paying Attention? – a comedy quiz program based on the news.
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Melbourne and Sydney house values tumble through September
By Shane Wright
October 1, 2020 — 10.00am
Melbourne and Sydney house values continued to slide through September but there are signs a shortage of homes on the market is supporting prices across the country.
House values in Melbourne and Sydney fell again through September but there are signs of support across the national property market.Credit:Rob Homer
CoreLogic on Thursday reported house values in Melbourne slipped by 0.9 per cent after a 1.4 per cent drop in August.
Through the past three months, house values in the nation's second-largest city have fallen by 3.7 per cent. So far this year they have dropped by 3.4 per cent.
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Banks, RBA must strike fine balance on state government bonds
There is a Churchillian task for the semi bond market. The RBA would love to see the commercial banks help absorb some of that extra bond supply in what would be another form of QE by stealth.
Matthew Cranston Economics correspondent
Oct 1, 2020 – 4.16pm
Without being too dramatic about current government bond markets, some words from Winston Churchill aptly describe what the next six months have in store.
“It is where the balance quivers, and the proportions are veiled in mist, that the opportunity for world-saving decisions presents itself,” Churchill, a major government debt issuer himself, once said.
At the moment, the mist of economic and fiscal uncertainties, the quivering of rating agencies and bond buyers such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the disproportionate pricing between bonds, all present big opportunities.
The state government (semis) bond market seems to be where the biggest opportunities lie and that's partly because of the expectations around the RBA and commercial banks’ involvement in coming months.
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Budget double backflips not enough to land jobless target
The Treasurer has flipped on the surplus and the personal tax cuts. But the third twist needed to get unemployment comfortably under 6 per cent is billions more stimulus spending.
Danielle Wood Contributor
Oct 1, 2020 – 1.33pm
If Josh Frydenberg’s second budget was a gymnastics move it would be the "triple double": the double backflip with three twists that all but the bravest athletes shy away from.
A pandemic, a globally synchronised recession, and monetary policy almost out of puff all make next week’s budget a high-stakes affair. The Treasurer looks like he has the appetite for a red-hot go, but executing will be no mean feat.
His first flip is jettisoning the straitjacket of the medium-term fiscal strategy. Since the Charter of Budget Honesty was introduced in 1998, governments have set a target of achieving budget surpluses, on average, over the economic cycle.
In the first phase, the government will provide "temporary, proportionate and targeted" fiscal support, with a focus on boosting business and consumer confidence.
This is the right move – the government must continue its support if we are to avoid the significant long-term cost from leaving the economy languishing below potential for an extended period, including the scarring effects of long-term unemployment. And confidence is key to getting there.
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'Diminished capacity': Australia tipped to lose one in 10 university jobs
The coronavirus pandemic is expected to claim almost one in 10 jobs in Australian universities, diminishing the tertiary sector's research capacity and reducing its ability to teach the next generation of domestic students.
Research by the University of Melbourne’s Centre for the Study of Higher Education has found Australia’s public universities have lost $3.8 billion in revenue this year.
In response, they have culled about 5600 full-time equivalent jobs. An estimated 17,500 casual and researcher positions are also predicted to go.
The scale of lost jobs equates to 9.5 per cent of Australia's entire higher education workforce.
The University of Melbourne, La Trobe University and Monash University are among the hardest hit. Melbourne is expected to lose $1 billion in revenue in 2020-22, La Trobe up to $520 million in the long term, and Monash around $350 million this year alone.
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Covid-era spendathon? Get ready for a tsunami
Small-government types aren’t only in for a tough few years, as the reach of government soars to combat the coronavirus, but for a difficult few decades.
The costs to public finances of the pandemic, massive by any reckoning, are temporary. But the growing budget costs of ageing, healthcare, climate change, however quotidian by comparison, will ultimately prove larger — and permanent.
The government’s July budget update, optimistic, as it was put together ahead of Victoria’s second, more severe lockdown, pencilled in federal government spending equivalent to 34 per cent of GDP this financial year — which would be the highest share since 1946 — up from 25 per cent last year.
Dr Marc Robinson, a veteran Australian economist who spent many years at the International Monetary Fund, reckons the tsunami of extra spending will accumulate to 6 per cent of GDP, a year, in Australia sometime over the next 30 years. “And it will be heavily front-loaded within the next decade,” he says.
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Health Issues.
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Morrison warned of gap in hospital funding due to COVID-19 costs
By Dana McCauley
October 1, 2020 — 12.01am
Doctors are warning the Morrison government to boost funding to public hospitals hit with higher costs due to COVID-19 as state governments grapple with a backlog of cancelled elective surgeries and an expected surge in demand from patients who delayed seeking medical care.
The Australian Medical Association has issued a warning that the current hospital funding agreement between the Commonwealth and the states will leave public hospitals "chronically underfunded" at a time when they face increased costs.
AMA president Omar Khorshid said hospitals faced ongoing cost impacts - with operating theatre efficiency decreased by 50 per cent when there was COVID-19 in the community, due to the need for personal protective equipment - and that the federal government must "do its fair share".
Public hospitals had already been "bursting at the seams" before the pandemic hit, Dr Khorshid said, with changes made to deal with COVID-19 now adding to emergency room wait times and ambulance ramping, along with ballooning elective surgery wait lists.
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Hope for hydroxychloroquine: scientists back trial
Scientists administering hydroxychloroquine to hundreds of health workers in Victoria and NSW say they still believe the controversial drug may prevent people contracting coronavirus and have vowed to continue their investigations.
Hydroxychloroquine has been discontinued from the world’s major randomised clinical trials because it has been shown to be ineffective in reducing the severity of COVID-19 or mortality rates from the virus.
But scientists at the Walter & Eliza Hall Institute in Melbourne say the drug may still play a role in preventing people contracting SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, with scientific studies not yet ruling out the efficacy of the drug as a prophylactic.
Hydroxychloroquine became notorious when US President Donald Trump suggested it was a miracle drug and that he was taking it as a preventative. Months later, The Lancet published a study that claimed COVID-19 patients taking hydroxychloroquine were dying at higher rates and experiencing higher rates of cardiac toxicity. The esteemed scientific journal was forced to retract the study after it emerged it was based on dodgy data.
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Silent COVID-19 reinfections have researchers worried
Jill Margo Health editor
Oct 1, 2020 – 1.42pm
Just as your first infection with the COVID-19 virus can go unnoticed, so can a reinfection, according to a case study of hospital workers in north India.
In a letter to the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, published by Oxford University Press, the case study reports on two young staff members at a tertiary hospital who tested positive and became reinfected several months later.
While other cases of reinfection have been reported, all had symptoms in one or both of the episodes.
But these two health workers were unusual because they had no symptoms either time and both were infected with a genetically different virus the second time.
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Coronavirus: rush to publish may irreversibly harm patients
Medical ethics researchers have identified dozens of scientific papers as being discredited amid data falsification and misinterpretation, invalid conclusions and flawed methodology during the rush to publish papers during the COVID-19 pandemic.
As the novel coronavirus swept the world, there was a rush to publish scientific papers on preprint servers, upending the previous practice of waiting for peer review before findings were published.
While there have been significant upsides to the new era of open science, Bond University adjunct professor Katrina Bramstedt has warned that adverse medical results could result if clinicians rely on the conclusions of erroneous scientific papers in treating COVID-19 patients.
“Preprint platforms do routinely advise their readers not to use their content for clinical decision-making, but the latter cannot be ruled out, especially in the situation of a pandemic with high rates of morbidity and mortality,” Professor Bramstedt said.
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International Issues.
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Remember 1929 when trying to identify the coming financial crisis
To find the point of vulnerability in the US financial markets, I believe we have to look for the least legally flexible credit securities that can move the fastest from low risk to visibly defaulted. Those would be the commercial mortgage-backed securities.
John Dizard Contributor
Sep 27, 2020 – 12.58pm
It has not yet been recognised that Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death significantly raises the likelihood of a US-centric financial crisis this northern autumn.
The continued forbearance by lenders and bond trustees, the rule-waiving and the explicit belief in further fiscal stimulus have all depended on the assumption that Congress would be open to any negotiations between the parties. But the possibility of any agreement has been damaged by fury among Democrats at President Donald Trump’s insistence that RBG’s successor must be appointed before the election.
Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell’s pleas for more fiscal support in recent days do not seem to have done the trick of concentrating members of Congress on the urgency of a reaching an agreement on additional fiscal stimulus. All that matters in Washington now is the fight over the nomination and hasty confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett.
But there are entire industries, specifically airlines, hotels and “core retail” – that is, shopping malls – whose revenues have suffered deeply from the tailing-off of the initial federal fiscal stimulus and consumers’ fear of COVID-19 infection. Each of these industries has been supported by previously “investment grade” tranches of securitisations that are going into default on a large scale.
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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/president-trump-paid-750-in-tax-nyt-20200928-p55ztu
Just $750 paid in 2017: NYT lifts the lid on Trump's tax affairs
The New York Times has obtained tax-return data for President Donald Trump and his companies that covers more than two decades. This is a summary of what they show.
David Leonhardt
Updated Sep 28, 2020 – 10.13am, first published at 9.04am
Washington | The New York Times has obtained tax-return data for President Donald Trump and his companies that covers more than two decades.
Trump has long refused to release this information, making him the first president in decades to hide basic details about his finances. His refusal has made his tax returns among the most sought-after documents in recent memory.
The US president has claimed reports he only paid $750 tax is 'fake news'.
Among the key findings of The Times' investigation are:
- Trump paid no federal income taxes in 11 of 18 years that The Times examined. In 2017, after he became president, his tax bill was only $US750 ($1065).
- He has reduced his tax bill with questionable measures, including a $US72.9 million tax refund that is the subject of an audit by the Internal Revenue Service.
- Many of his signature businesses, including his golf courses, report losing large amounts of money - losses that have helped him to lower his taxes.
- The financial pressure on him is increasing as hundreds of millions of dollars in loans he personally guaranteed are soon coming due.
- Even while declaring losses, he has managed to enjoy a lavish lifestyle by taking tax deductions on what most people would consider personal expenses, including residences, aircraft and $70,000 in hair-styling for television.
- Ivanka Trump, while working as an employee of the Trump Organization, appears to have received "consulting fees" that also helped reduce the family's tax bill.
- As president, he has received more money from foreign sources and US interest groups than previously known. The records do not reveal any previously unreported connections to Russia.
It is important to remember that the returns are not an unvarnished look at Trump's business activity. They are instead his own portrayal of his companies, compiled for the IRS. But they do offer the most detailed picture yet available.
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Fierce clashes rage in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian enclave
By Nvard Hovhannisyan and Nailia Bagirova
September 29, 2020 — 6.39am
Yerevan: Fighting has escalated sharply between Azerbaijan and its ethnic Armenian mountain enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, and at least 29 people were killed in a second day of heavy clashes.
The two sides pounded each other with rockets and artillery on Monday in the fiercest round of the decades-old conflict in more than a quarter of a century.
"This is a life-and-death war," Arayik Harutyunyan, the Nagorno-Karabakh leader, told a briefing.
Any move to all-out war could drag in major regional powers Russia and Turkey. Moscow has a defence alliance with Armenia, which provides vital support to the enclave and is its lifeline to the outside world, while Ankara backs its own ethnic Turkic kin in Azerbaijan.
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Coronavirus: PM Boris Johnson torn by UK at breaking point as second wave bites deep
Tim Shipman
· The Times
To his enemies, he is a stubborn politician who never changes his mind or apologises for his previous statements. But behind the scenes, the coronavirus has forced Boris Johnson to rethink one of his most cherished beliefs.
As the British Prime Minister concluded that he would have to impose new restrictions to contain COVID-19, he revealed that his great hero was no longer the mayor of Amity in the film Jaws, who kept the beaches open despite the presence of a great white shark offshore.
Confronted about his notorious stance in the past few days, Johnson replied: “I did write that article, but the mayor of Amity was only dealing with one shark that had attacked one or two of his constituents. The situation we face now is that there are greater numbers of sharks.”
To those present, it was a symbolic moment in which Johnson, a politician who has cultivated a reputation as a libertarian controversialist, embraced his role as the man trying to balance the competing demands of saving lives and the economy in what are very choppy seas.
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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/how-china-is-bracing-for-washington-s-decoupled-world-20200929-p5605t
How China is bracing for Washington's decoupled world
The dual-circulation strategy is not a turning inwards away from the world, but a pragmatic move to prepare China's domestic market for US decoupling.
Andrew Sheng Contributor
Sep 29, 2020 – 11.42am
China’s leaders are currently putting the finishing touches on the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan that will cover the 2021-25 period. But one aspect of the plan – the so-called dual-circulation strategy – is already attracting the world’s attention. Many fear that China is “turning inward” just when the global economy is staring down the barrel of a recession. These fears are misplaced.
According to President Xi Jinping, the dual-circulation strategy means that China will rely mainly on “internal circulation” – the domestic cycle of production, distribution, and consumption – for its long-term development. This will reduce China’s dependence on overseas markets and technology.
But that doesn’t mean China is withdrawing from the world. To understand what it does mean, one must first comprehend how Chinese policymakers think about the country’s long-term development trajectory.
Unlike Western leaders, who typically have degrees in law or economics, Chinese policymakers are mostly scientists and engineers. As a result, they are more likely to think in systemic terms. China’s Five-Year Plans are crammed with engineering and systemic terms, such as “top-down architectural design,” networks, platforms, and processes. This approach means that Chinese policymakers look beyond mainstream micro- and macroeconomic models to account also for meta- and meso-considerations.
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Boris Johnson unable to explain lockdown rules as mutiny mounts
Hans van Leeuwen Europe correspondent
Sep 30, 2020 – 2.53am
London | British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was unable to set out clearly his own lockdown rules to journalists on Tuesday, underscoring the confusion and inconsistency at the heart of Britain's COVID-19 fight and stoking a mutinous uprising among his MPs.
Mr Johnson was forced to apologise for having "misspoke" after he couldn't explain the minutiae of the increasingly Byzantine rules - namely, whether people from different households could meet in a pub garden if they were facing an enhanced local lockdown.
His gaffe came at a hugely inopportune moment: he faces a potentially decisive parliamentary rebellion against his latest round of restrictions in a vote due on Wednesday, as the libertarian wing of his party chafes against his measures.
Mr Johnson is set to hold a press conference late on Wednesday (AEST) with his chief scientific adviser and chief medical officer, as he tries to regain control of a message that is landing awry with a disgruntled backbench and a confused public.
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Nightmare scenario: Markets are set for a shock if Trump refuses to go
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
September 30, 2020 — 10.05am
High-drama political events rarely have any lasting impact on financial markets. There are exceptions. The Brexit referendum has led to a structural re-rating of UK: a weaker pound (good, in a zero-rate world) and a weaker stockmarket in dollar-adjusted terms (bad). But this is a local affair of limited global importance.
Donald Trump's election mischief is of a different order. The issue is not so much that he refuses to rule out a long-drawn dispute if he loses to Joe Biden on November 3. That could be dismissed as bluster.
The threat runs deeper. Trump has already mounted a systematic campaign to muddy the waters and to undermine the legitimacy of postal votes. He has set in motion the machinery for legal guerrilla warfare in battleground states.
The only question is how far he would go. Would he try to activate the 1807 Insurrection Act to justify emergency powers, as some now fear? At what point would the Republican Party establishment say "enough"?
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Beijing unhappy about ‘exclusive clique’ to attend ‘Quad’ meeting’ of Australia, US, Japan and India
China’s foreign ministry has confirmed its deep unease about next week’s “Quad” meeting in Tokyo, calling the gathering of the US, Japan, India and Australia an “exclusive clique” that targets “third parties”.
“We believe the world’s overriding trend is peace, development and win-win co-operation. Instead of forming exclusive cliques, multilateral and plurilateral co-operation should be open, inclusive and transparent,” said China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin.
“Instead of targeting third parties or undermining third parties’ interests, co-operation should be conducive to mutual understanding and trust between regional countries,” Mr Wang said at a regular press briefing late on Tuesday in Beijing.
The comments were made hours after Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said the in-person meeting of the four foreign ministers of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — also known as “the Quad” – would take place in Tokyo on October 6.
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Trump goes too far in the 'worst ever debate'
Democrats called the first presidential debate a "a hot mess, inside a dumpster fire, inside a track wreck" and even Republicans said Donald Trump "overplayed his hand tonight".
Jacob Greber United States correspondent
Sep 30, 2020 – 4.09pm
Cleveland, Ohio | Ugly, demeaning, unedifying and vile - and that was just the first half hour.
The opening presidential debate – a 98-minute ordeal of interjection, name-calling, and even a sideways nod-and-a-wink to white supremacists by the President – was the moment the rest of the world saw what it's like to live in this country 24/7.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden face off in the first US presidential debate.
For all its strength and enduring potential, America is at war with itself.
Some people actually like it this way. But one suspects the vast - let's call them silent - majority don't.
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How Trump seeks to undermine legitimacy of the vote
With just over a month to go until the polls, the dominant issue is not about policy differences but whether the US can even conduct a fair election where the result will be respected.
Joshua Chaffin
Oct 1, 2020 – 9.35am
New York | At a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday Donald Trump told a sprawling crowd that the Democrats would resort to theft to try to win a toss-up state that is vital to both parties’ fortunes in this tumultuous election.
“They’re going to try to steal this election,” the US President declared, without any evidence other than his own intuition. “The only way they can win Pennsylvania, frankly, is to cheat on the ballots.”
A week earlier, a Pennsylvania supreme court decision on something known as a “naked” ballot offered a clue as to how Mr Trump hopes to prevail in a contest in which unprecedented numbers of Americans are expected to cast their votes by mail to avoid the risk of coronavirus infection — and one in which he is currently well behind in the polls.
Mail-in voters in Pennsylvania will need to send their ballot contained within two separate envelopes. The court found that any mail-in ballot not enclosed in a second envelope — to preserve its secrecy — would be disqualified.
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Johnson pleads with grumpy Britons to 'stick together' in COVID fight
Hans van Leeuwen Europe correspondent
Oct 1, 2020 – 3.29am
London | Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pleaded with Britons to "stick together" and "defeat this virus", acknowledging the country's lockdown fatigue but saying "there is only one way out of this".
Mr Johnson's bid to get on the front foot followed a week in which he seemed to being losing his grip on the crisis: COVID-19 cases are surging, his backbench MPs were threatening mutiny, he was unable to explain his own restrictions, and the shortfall in testing capacity was rumbling on.
But early on Thursday (AEST) he headed off a parliamentary rebellion against his lockdown rules, promising more consultation and debate with MPs if - or when - new nationwide restrictions are introduced.
He also vowed to go back to regular press conferences, and rattled off upbeat statistics on the government's testing capacity, equipment stockpile and hospital preparedness.
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Trump shows American democracy is in terrible danger
By Thomas L. Friedman
October 1, 2020 — 6.06am
Washington: President Donald Trump has now made it unmistakably clear in recent weeks — and even more crystal clear at Wednesday night's debate — that there are only two choices before American voters November 3 — and electing Joe Biden is not one of them.
The president has told us in innumerable ways that either he will be reelected or he will delegitimise the vote by claiming that all mail-in ballots — a time-honoured tradition that has ushered Republicans and Democrats into office and has been used by Trump himself — are invalid.
Trump's motives could not be more transparent. If he does not win the Electoral College, he'll muddy the results so that the outcome can be decided only by the Supreme Court or the House of Representatives (where each state delegation gets one vote). Trump has advantages in both right now, which he has boasted about for the past week.
I can't say this any more clearly: Our democracy is in terrible danger — more danger than it has been since the Civil War, more danger than after Pearl Harbor, more danger than during the Cuban missile crisis and more danger than during Watergate.
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The US faces a foreign policy crisis no matter who wins
A second term for Donald Trump is likely to see major alliances dissolved and the certain death of the post-war international order. Joe Biden would grant the liberal order a last minute reprieve.
Thomas Wright
Oct 2, 2020 – 12.00am
The election of 2016 plunged US foreign policy into its greatest crisis since the period immediately preceding America’s entry into the Second World War, when an internationalist president grappled with the original America First movement and an isolationist public over whether the United States should act to prevent a Nazi victory in Europe.
In the current crisis, an America First president has rejected the fundamental principles of US leadership since the Second World War, including the US alliance system in Europe and Asia, free trade and an open international economy, and support for democracy and human rights. He has sought to radically change US foreign policy in line with his views over the objections of most of his national security team and the institutions of the state, including the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence community, the Congress, and the American public, which polls show has become even more supportive of alliances, free trade, and democracy during his term.
The President and internationalists within his administration and Congress have fought to a stalemate so far. On one hand, US alliances remain intact, US forces remain forward-positioned, and the official foreign policy doctrine of the US is oriented around great power competition.
On the other hand, the President has removed many of the constraints on his freedom of action, he is extremely critical of allies, and the US has abandoned any pretence to leadership in fighting the coronavirus pandemic, which is one of the greatest international crises of the past 50 years.
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Second Covid wave is out of control, scientists warn weary UK
· The Times
British health experts have admitted that the coronavirus is out of control as case numbers and hospital admissions rise despite a slew of new restrictions on social gatherings.
“Things are definitely heading in the wrong direction,” British Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance told a government briefing on Thursday (AEST), as a further 7108 cases and 71 deaths were reported.
As England Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty warned hospitalisations and intensive care admissions were rising, Sir Patrick added: “We don’t have this under control at the moment.”
More than 42,000 people have died from COVID-19 in Britain, the worst toll in Europe, despite a nationwide stay-at-home order imposed in late March.
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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/let-s-take-trump-s-warning-seriously-20201001-p56162
Let's take Trump's warning seriously
A president threatening to destroy the election itself is what happens when self-interest corrodes institutions.
Thomas Friedman Contributor
Oct 2, 2020 – 11.55am
The only hope for America is to elect Biden and split the GOP between the Trumpists and whatever is left of the moderate Republicans.
President Donald Trump has now made it unmistakably clear in recent weeks – and even more crystal clear at this week's debate – that there are only two choices before voters on November 3 – and electing Joe Biden is not one of them.
The President has told us in innumerable ways that either he will be re-elected or he will delegitimise the vote by claiming that all mail-in ballots – a time-honoured tradition that has ushered Republicans and Democrats into office and has been used by Trump himself – are invalid.
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/30/america-years-of-lead-political-violence-trump-election/
America Is About to Enter Its Years of Lead
Trump’s calls for political violence are a familiar far-right strategy.
By Alex Yablon| September 30, 2020, 12:42 PM
“Proud Boys, stand back and stand by,” President Donald Trump told his supporters in the far-right street-fighting group from his podium at the first 2020 presidential debate. “Somebody’s got to do something about antifa and the left.” Four years into the Trump era, Americans have struggled to habituate themselves to the persistent presence of armed paramilitaries at demonstrations and flashes of lethal political violence. What do these hard men herald for our political life? Are they stormtroopers waiting for Trump’s signal to hasten the transition from autocratic attempt to autocratic breakthrough and the final demise of American democracy, as some liberals fear? Or are they a sideshow of confused, lonely men acting out fantasies with semi-automatic rifles?
Both hyperventilating over paramilitary fantasists and laughing off potential death squads miss the mark. The whiff of putsch may be more pungent than feels comfortable at the moment, but the far-right’s window for an extra-legal takeover remains quite narrow, especially if polls hold and Biden wins by a healthy margin. At the same time, American politics really has been destabilized by political violence, overwhelmingly perpetrated by the extreme right. But if the United States is heading into an era of fear and violence, it won’t be the first time this has happened in a democracy—or even the first time this has happened in America itself.
If proud boys and vigilantes can’t pull off a coordinated drive for power, they may opt for a time-honored approach in democratic politics: the “strategy of tension.” In a paper published this spring, University of Winchester criminologists Matt Clement and Vincenzo Scalia defined the strategy of tension as a political method of “state crime,” designed to produce “a climate of fear within communities. [Strategies of tension] employ deceit, threats, and acts of violence in order to maintain control across society through fear of the consequences of challenging the government of the day.”
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Misinformation spikes after Trump confirms virus diagnosis
Amanda Seitz and Beatrice Dupuy
Oct 3, 2020 – 5.52am
Chicago | News that President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19 sparked an explosion of rumours, misinformation and conspiracy theories that in a matter of hours littered the social media feeds of many Americans.
Tweets shared thousands of times claimed Democrats might have somehow intentionally infected the President with the coronavirus during the debates.
Others speculated in Facebook posts that maybe the President was faking his illness.
And the news also ignited constant conjecture among QAnon followers, who peddle a baseless belief that Trump is a warrior against a secret network of government officials and celebrities that they falsely claim is running a child trafficking ring.
In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis was swept into an online vortex of coronavirus misinformation and the falsehoods swirling around this popularising election.
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Five key takeaways from the US September jobs report
Paul Wiseman
Oct 3, 2020 – 5.04am
Washington | Just how resilient is the US economy’s recovery from the coronavirus recession? The weakening of the nation's job-generating machine in September — for a third straight month — reinforced doubts.
In an ordinary month in an ordinary year, the adding of 661,000 workers would be extraordinarily good news. In topsy-turvy 2020? Not so much.
Last month's gain looks worrisome because it marks a sharp falloff from 4.8 million added jobs in June, 1.8 million in July and 1.5 million in August. Economists had expected payrolls to rise by 850,000 in September, according to the data firm FactSet.
With nearly half the 22 million jobs that were lost to the viral pandemic still gone, a slowdown in hiring is hardly encouraging. Economists fear the job market will face even more pressure if Congress fails to agree soon on another economic rescue package and if coronavirus cases resurge in the cold weather months and keep consumers hunkered down at home.
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Trump's advanced age, obesity critical factors in fight against virus
Lenny Bernstein, Laurie McGinley, Joel Achenbach and Lena H. Sun
Oct 3, 2020 – 5.22am
Washington | President Donald Trump's advanced age and his immune system's response will most strongly influence the course of his battle with COVID-19, a disease whose impact ranges unpredictably from no symptoms at all to rapid death, according to experts and research.
And the President's path over the next 10 days - or possibly longer, if he develops an extended version of the disease - may be dictated by whether he inhaled a large amount of virus deep into his lungs.
The President, famously opposed to the medical guidance that Americans wear masks in most circumstances, may have left himself vulnerable to receiving a heavy dose of the coronavirus that has killed at least 207,000 people and infected more than 7.2 million in the United States, according to a Washington Post analysis.
People with underlying health problems also tend to have poorer outcomes. The 74-year-old President weighs 244 pounds (110.7 kg), a total that makes him slightly obese, according to information released by the White House after his physical exam in June. He takes a statin for high cholesterol and his blood pressure is slightly elevated.
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'We know what it's like': Britain leads best wishes for Trump's recovery but critics also pile in
By Latika Bourke
Updated October 2, 2020 — 7.47pmfirst published at 5.00pm
London: If there is one country that can appreciate the shock of their leader contracting coronavirus it is Britain.
The effects of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's near-death experience with COVID-19 are still written across his face. In April, he was hospitalised for a week and spent three days in intensive care.
Then, Trump said he had asked "leading companies" to "contact London immediately" to see if they could be of any help.
"We've contacted all of Boris' doctors, and we'll see what is going to take place, but they are ready to go," Trump told a news conference at the time.
On Friday, it was Johnson's turn to return the well-wishes.
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What are monoclonal antibodies? Trump begins experimental virus treatment
Donald Trump’s doctor has revealed the President has had his “first dose” of an experimental drug cocktail, baffling medical experts.
Sam ClenchOctober 3, 20202:20pm
US President Donald Trump has received his “first dose” of an experimental cocktail of antibodies as part of his treatment for the coronavirus, according to his doctor.
White House physician Sean Conley issued a statement that described the medication Mr Trump has since begun taking.
“As of this afternoon the President remains fatigued but in good spirits,” Dr Conley said.
“He’s being evaluated by a team of experts, and together we’ll be making recommendations to the President and First Lady in regards to next best steps.
“As a precautionary measure, he received a single eight gram dose of Regeneron’s polyclonal antibody cocktail. He completed the infusion without incident.
“In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and a daily aspirin.”
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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/next-48-hours-critical-for-trump-white-house-20201004-p561rs
Next 48 hours 'critical' for Trump: White House
Jacob Greber United States correspondent
Oct 4, 2020 – 7.51am
Washington | Donald Trump's vitals during the 24 hours that triggered his hospitalisation "were very concerning" and the next two days would be "critical", a White House source said, moments after the President's doctors claimed he was "doing well".
"We're still not on a clear path to a full recovery," said the source, who was described as being familiar with the President's health.
The quotes were provided to The Australian Financial Review by a White House pool reporter a short time before a separate Washington correspondent posted a video on social media showing Mr Trump's chief of staff, Mark Meadows, briefing journalists after a press conference with doctors that presented a far more rosy picture of the President's condition.
"This morning, the President is doing very well," said Mr Trump's personal doctor Sean Conley at a media briefing outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Centre in Bethesda, Maryland, on Saturday (Sunday AEST), standing alongside a phalanx of other members of the medical team wearing white coats with presidential seals.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
