May 05 2022 Edition
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Sadly overseas little seems to have changed other than a feeling that Putin seems slowly to be loosing! I really hope it is true!
In our election things are clarifying a Postal Voting starts May 9 so voting gets underway in a few days. Polls are close so the outcome not clear yet!
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Major Issues.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/preserve-peace-by-preparing-for-war-dutton-20220425-p5afsw
Preserve peace by preparing for war: Dutton
Georgie Moore
25 Aptil, 2020
The only way to preserve peace in the Pacific region is to prepare for war, Defence Minister Peter Dutton says as Prime Minister Scott Morrison warns of a new “arc of autocracy” stretching from Beijing to Moscow.
Morrison has used Anzac Day to warn a red line will be drawn by Australian and its allies over the development of any Chinese military base on the Solomon Islands as part of a security pact between the two countries.
Dutton has told the Nine Network’s Today Show Australians need to acknowledge the “reality of our time” as the threat of conflict in the Pacific looms amid ratcheting tensions.
“We shouldn’t take for granted the sacrifice that was made by the Anzacs, or those in World War II or in Vietnam, in the Middle East, in every conflict in between, that somehow that will see us through to eternity without conflict in our region,” the defence minister said.
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Why the Anzac legend is not enough for the 21st century
War remains not just thinkable, but nightmarishly doable – and the potential in our Indo-Pacific region is real. With a third of us born overseas, the story of ANZAC may not be one all Australians can relate to readily.
Rory Medcalf Geopolitical analyst
Apr 23, 2022 – 5.00am
Australia needs a new national security ethos. The Anzac legend, for all its ragged nobility, is not enough for the strategic realities of the 21st century.
This is with full reverence to the spirit we mark each April 25: of wartime service, sacrifice, resourcefulness and that special comradeship – or mateship – that Australia claims as its own.
Values of duty, courage and selflessness in the national interest matter all the more in an age of international disruption and danger.
Today’s security environment is confronting. In launching a major defence policy update two years ago, the prime minister warned about a new 1930s – and that line was not mere politics.
Since 1945, much of our population has looked out from an eastern coastline onto an ocean that was literally pacific, sheltered from even the idea of war.
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Australia is sleepwalking into an economic and strategic mess
Observers might be forgiven for wondering whether the will exists – on either side of Australian politics – to begin a mature discussion about the nation’s strategic direction in Asia.
Tom Westland
Apr 22, 2022 – 11.02am
One of the most neglected policies in Australia’s election campaign is foreign affairs, an area that rarely attracts attention from either the nation’s media or voters.
The fireworks of Australia’s recent decision to cancel a major submarine contract with France and sign up to a new defence arrangement with the US and the UK distracted from a more worrying reality: Australia has no framework, nor even the makings of one, to help navigate the tectonic political shifts taking place in its backyard.
Before omicron wreaked havoc, the Coalition government was hoping for an election in which it could point to Australia’s comparatively good performance during the COVID-19 pandemic.
As the variant tore through an overconfident and underprepared country, the likelihood of a resounding re-election of the Morrison government began to look less certain, though it remains a strong possibility.
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If you care about Australia’s future, care about declining home ownership
Economics Editor
April 25, 2022 — 5.00am
The most thought-provoking contribution I’ve heard so far in this utterly dumbed-down election campaign is from barrister Gray Connolly, saying the big issue we should be debating is housing and intergenerational wealth.
Connolly was speaking as a self-proclaimed Red Tory, on ABC Radio National’s Religion and Ethics Report. Red Tories, he says, are people on the political Right who have a more traditional view of what we’re trying to achieve. They are true conservatives, trying to conserve the institutions and practices that have given us the way of life we value.
Red Tories believe in communitarianism – much more about “we” than “me”. They highlight the virtues of home and family. They emphasise the boring virtues, like duty, perseverance and loyalty, not just people’s rights.
That so few Australians under 40 have any form of home ownership or wealth of any kind is a ticking timebomb socially, Connolly says. It’s this that could split the country demographically.
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Deves endorsement shows PM is willing to risk progressive seats
April 24, 2022 — 5.01am
It didn’t take long for Scott Morrison to get the question he was waiting for. His answer told us little that we didn’t already know about the Prime Minister but plenty about where the Liberal Party sees its political future.
“Why won’t you disendorse her?″ the journalist asked.
Morrison had a choice. He had made it clear three days earlier that as offensive as Katherine Deves’s comments were about transgender people, he wasn’t going to dump her as the party’s candidate in Warringah. The PM didn’t need to say much more.
Instead, Morrison raised the timbre of his voice and delivered a message carefully workshopped to reach beyond the press conference in Perth and into the SUVs of mums driving their daughters to swimming squads, hockey practice and netball training.
“She is a woman standing up for women and girls and their access to fair sport in this country,” he said. “I am not going to allow her to be silenced.”
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Fearing the worst: Campaign ads point to mood shift in the lucky country
Columnist
April 25, 2022 — 5.30am
Election ads are tedious pieces of propaganda. They do not leave you better informed. They don’t provoke higher thought. They are fascinating nonetheless. Because so much is riding on them, they are driven by polling and focus groups. And because, unlike press conferences, they can be edited and re-edited, they contain little that is accidental. They are the best sharp summary of the national mood you will find.
Perhaps, then, you will find it reassuring that the uncertainty you almost certainly feel is widely shared by other Australians. That is the most interesting thing about the recent ads. Two Liberal ads, depicting Anthony Albanese as a weathervane, list supposedly contradictory positions Anthony Albanese has had, concluding: “When Australia needs certainty, it won’t be easy under Albanese.” A Labor ad released last week asserts that Scott Morrison makes too many mistakes. “Next time something goes wrong, do you trust him to make it right?”
Next time something goes wrong. In other words, the past three years have conditioned us to expect disaster, an interesting perspective shift for the lucky country. The Liberal line is more interesting still, because of the questions it provokes: “When Australia needs certainty.” Is this true – that we need certainty? Or, to put this another way, do we need certainty now more than at other times? Surely, if certainty is a good thing, we need it equally at all times. Perhaps, then, the line would be rendered more accurate with a change: “When Australia wants certainty.”
Small but important, that difference, between what one needs and what one wants. So, what is each party offering in response to this desire? The Coalition offers approximately no change. Labor offers what it calls “safe change”, reasonably described as “not much change”. If we are heading into a period of catastrophes, I can understand why voters might like the idea their leaders won’t shake anything up. But is this what we need?
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Dutton: Prepare for war, stare down aggression
25 April, 2022
Defence Minister Peter Dutton says Australians must “prepare for war” and
“stare down any act of aggression” to ensure peace and stability in the region,
arguing that Australians must not take for granted the “sacrifice” made by
Anzacs.
Speaking to the Today show as thousands gather across the country to pay tribute to Australian servicemen and women on Anzac day, Mr Dutton said the war in Ukraine was a reminder of how Australia must continue to fight against the rise of autocratic forces in the world.
He said it was important to “be frank” about escalating threats in the region,
and that people like Hitler were not “consigned to history”.
“The only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war,” Mr Dutton told Today.
“Curling up in a ball, pretending nothing is happening, saying nothing, that is not … in our long-term interests and we should be very honest about that."
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‘Arc of Autocracy’ threatens world: Scott Morrison
April 25, 2022
An “arc of autocracy” stretching from Beijing to Moscow is threatening the rules-based world order and the tearing down of freedoms that previous generations have sought to secure through conflict, Scott Morrison will say on Monday as the nation gathers to remember fallen Australians.
Delivering his Anzac Day speech in Darwin, to commemorate the 80th anniversary year of the bombing of the northern port city, the Prime Minister will say the world is again “changing before our eyes”.
He will be joined by Deputy Opposition Leader Richard Marles, with Anthony Albanese in seven-day isolation following a positive Covid-19 result.
Mr Marles, tipped to become defence minister if Labor wins the May 21 election, will also focus on the Darwin bombing anniversary while commemorating the “ultimate sacrifice of more than 100,000 Australians. Their sacrifice burns bright. It illuminates the nation. And it reminds us that to wear our national uniform is an act of the highest service.”
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Memo to Scott Morrison: this bluster will leave us with egg on our face
April 25, 2022
Scott Morrison drawing a red line against a Chinese military base in the South Pacific serves one genuinely useful purpose – it helps to alert the Australian people to the absolute seriousness for them of what’s going on between China and Solomon Islands.
However, the Prime Minister’s red line carries the enormous risk of being mocked into derision because of the obvious hollowness of the implied threat.
For an international leader to issue a red line warning is to say that if the nation involved crosses that red line, there will be serious and adverse consequences. What possible adverse consequences could Australia impose on China?
This has, sad to say, an inherently fatuous air about it.
Nothing damaged Barack Obama’s credibility more than when he said for the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad to use chemical weapons would be crossing a red line and the US would respond with severe military force.
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‘Reality of our time’: Dutton warns Australians to prepare for war
April 25, 2022 — 11.00am
Defence Minister Peter Dutton has warned Australia needs to prepare for war in light of the looming threat from China and global insecurity spurred by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
In an Anzac Day television interview, Dutton cast back to the Gallipoli campaign and the rising dictatorships of the 1930s in backing up Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s comments this morning that the “arc of authoritarianism” was troubling the region.
Dutton was asked about Morrison’s comment that Australia was setting up a “red line” in the Pacific over whether China would be allowed to build a military base in Solomon Islands after signing a controversial security pact.
“The only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war, and be strong as a country. Not to cower, not to be on bended knee and be weak. That’s the reality,” Dutton responded on Nine’s Today show on Monday morning.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-fails-to-make-ground-on-labor-20220425-p5aftw
Coalition struggles to make ground on Labor
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Updated Apr 25, 2022 – 6.02pm, first published at 6.00pm
The Coalition has struggled to make ground on Labor during the first two weeks of the campaign, despite Anthony Albanese’s stumbles, with a new poll showing both sides battling for the numbers to form majority government.
The latest The Australian Financial Review Ipsos poll shows while Labor’s primary vote lead has shrunk by 2 percentage points and Mr Albanese’s disapproval rating has risen, Labor remains ahead of the Coalition and one-third of voters are either opting for a minor party or undecided.
At this stage, 42 per cent of voters believe Labor will win the election on May 21, while 34 per cent are backing the Coalition to secure a fourth term.
The poll also shows little regard for both leaders on key attributes, with Scott Morrison recording a record low rating for trustworthiness, and Mr Albanese having a record low rating for economic management.
Both men are tied at a record low rating for competence.
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Trust in PM at record low, both leaders’ competency rated rock bottom
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Apr 26, 2022 – 5.00am
Scott Morrison is perceived as vastly less trustworthy than Labor leader Anthony Albanese, and even more untrustworthy than Tony Abbott at his most unpopular.
At the same time, Mr Albanese has plumbed new depths in terms of economic management, setting a poll record-low of 31 per cent, the latest The Australian Financial Review/Ipsos poll finds.
Both Mr Morrison and Mr Albanese are tied at a record low 42 per cent in terms of overall competency, the lowest level for either a prime minister and Opposition leader in 27 years.
Mr Morrison is perceived as the better visionary and Mr Albanese is regarded as having a better handle on his party.
Just 30 per cent of voters regards the Prime Minister as trustworthy, compared with 41 per cent for Mr Albanese.
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China delivered a masterstroke while the world watched Taiwan
Political and international editor
April 26, 2022 — 5.00am
It turns out that most of the West’s experts were looking in the wrong place. While the noisiest commentators and politicians were fixated on Taiwan, China delivered its strategic masterstroke some 6000 kilometres away in the South Pacific instead.
An attack on Taiwan would be violent and obvious. Signing a security agreement with Solomon Islands was bloodless and obscure. Most of the world has no idea that it’s happened at all.
The family of the Australian man whose vigilance helped frustrate the Japanese Imperial Army’s invasion of the Solomon Islands 70 years ago certainly has noticed. And they’re very upset.
“To say I am disappointed and dismayed at the decision would be an understatement,” says Alexandra Clemens from her home in Melbourne. “I am the daughter of Martin Clemens who valiantly stood his ground on the allies’ behalf alone on Guadalcanal for years before the US finally arrived in 1942.”
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A ‘cancer on our democracy’: How to fix Australia’s pork-barrelling crisis
Senior economics writer
April 26, 2022 — 5.00am
Amid higher fuel and food costs, and the spectre of looming interest rate hikes, Australian families are busily battening down the hatches on their household budgets.
How galling it is, then, to watch the nation’s politicians merrily traipsing around the country maxing out the national credit card on netball courts, surf lifesaver change rooms and boondoggle infrastructure projects to buy votes in marginal electorates.
It’s called pork-barrelling and it’s time we had an urgent national conversation about how to stop it.
After all, we end up picking up the tab for these dubious projects via the taxes we pay. And how much tax we pay is, of course, a key driver of our cost of living.
Few Australians begrudge the money governments spend on public goods and services which pass a cost-benefit analysis and enhance our national quality of living. Good schools, hospitals, roads and welfare for the less fortunate, for example.
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It is like the 1930s – and again we are defenceless
12:00AM April 26, 2022
This Anzac Day Scott Morrison drew a bright red line for China, while Defence Minister Peter Dutton compared Russia and China with Nazi Germany and said “the only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war”.
If the 2020s are really the 1930s all over again, how is it the government is not going to produce any significant new defence capabilities for the rest of this decade?
This decade does resemble the 1930s, not because we face a new Hitler or even a new imperial Japan but because of the utter fecklessness of defence policy and the miserable failure in defence of both sides of politics.
Australian leaders spent the 1930s “admiring the problem” of defence. They understood Nazi Germany and imperial Japan and made sententious statements all through the decade. But they did almost nothing to provide significant Australian capabilities.
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Seven tired old tropes politicians trot out in place of a vision for Australia’s future
Policy drift has consequences. Problems become larger. Future generations are left with the mess
Tue 26 Apr 2022 03.30 AESTLast modified on Tue 26 Apr 2022 09.46 AEST
Australian voters who chose their preferred candidate before the election was called have saved time. The campaign’s policy vacuum has hardly informed voting choices, with both major parties eschewing what the former US president George Bush Sr termed the “vision thing”.
Whether or not politicians, irrespective of ideological colour, have the stomach for them, important and urgent economic challenges lie ahead.
Household living standards are threatened by rising costs, low wage growth, poor quality of jobs, employment insecurity, higher mortgage repayments and housing unaffordability.
Downgrades in 2022 global growth from 4.4% to 3.6% and China’s slowdown, along with its reduced emphasis on infrastructure spending, diversification of commodity suppliers and the antagonistic Sino-Australian relationship, pose risks to an uneven post-pandemic recovery. With China being the world’s factory, its Covid-19 policy may continue to disrupt supply for some time.
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Coalition’s primary problem: how to stop the teal
Nine News Political Editor
April 27, 2022 — 5.00am
One number is now keeping major party leaders and their confidants awake at night: 76.
That is the bare minimum needed to form majority government in the 151 seat House of Representatives. It is the number the Coalition currently commands. And, right now, all the public polls show neither major party has electoral support to hit it.
Unless something changes, a hung parliament is the most likely outcome of this election. The primary vote of the major parties tells a story of deeply disillusioned voters left with a Hobson’s choice between a man they do not like and one they barely know.
In 2019, the Coalition won 77 seats with a primary vote of 41.4 per cent and Labor scored an abysmal 33.3 per cent to return 68 MPs. Public polls now show Labor has improved its position to sit somewhere between 35-37 per cent and the Coalition’s primary has collapsed to at, or below, 35 per cent.
Labor has been losing skin off its primary, on and off, since the turn of the millennium, as the rise of the Greens ate away at its left flank. It dipped below 38 in 2001 and 2004 before surging to 43.4 per cent on the back of the enthusiasm generated by the Kevin 07 campaign. But since then, it has been in steady decline and, in 2019, hit its lowest point since 1934. In the last hung parliament in 2010, Labor’s primary was 38 per cent and that’s where the polls tell us the party sits now.
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How the Morrison government lost interest in banking reform
Economics Editor
April 27, 2022 — 5.00am
Can you remember as far back as three years ago? Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg are hoping you can’t. And fortunately for them, the media’s memory is notoriously short.
The media mostly live in the now. What’s being promised in this election campaign? Not much as yet on what promises were made last time and what became of them.
A big issue in the years before the election in May 2019 was the many complaints about people’s mistreatment by the banks, much of it brought to light by this masthead’s Adele Ferguson. There was growing pressure for a royal commission.
But the banks denied there was a problem, and then-treasurer Morrison repeatedly dismissed the need for an inquiry. Finally, when some government backbenchers signalled their support for a motion to establish a commission, the banks begged the government to take over and ensure the inquiry had appropriate terms of reference.
Former High Court judge Kenneth Hayne was appointed to inquire into misconduct in the banking, superannuation and financial services industry. For months, the public was shocked by the misbehaviour his hearings revealed.
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Former navy chief urges government to axe frigates deal
Andrew Tillett Political correspondent
Apr 28, 2022 – 12.00am
A former navy chief has urged the government to dump the troubled $45 billion future frigate program, arguing the Hunter class warships cannot carry enough missiles for self-defence and to attack enemies.
In a damning assessment for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, retired vice-admiral David Shackleton said the navy should instead build a local version of the United States’ existing destroyers or, failing that, revive construction of the navy’s Hobart class Air Warfare Destroyer fleet.
“The Hunters aren’t powerful enough to meet the navy’s needs and won’t give the government a range of military options it could need for managing a future conflict,” Mr Shackleton wrote.
“A misguided emphasis on optimisation for anti-submarine warfare operations has resulted in Australia choosing a ship unsuited for its needs. A change of direction is needed.”
The government selected British defence giant BAE Systems’ immature Type 26 frigate design in 2018 as the basis for the Hunter class, seeing off rival bids from Spanish and Italian shipbuilders, despite those companies having warships already in the water.
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Coalition’s khaki election risks turning into Dad’s Army
April 28, 2022 — 5.00am
Whether through complacency, neglect or ineptitude, the long promised khaki election, which was expected to help deliver another victory for Scott Morrison, is in danger of turning into a revamped Dad’s Army.
So badly was it going with so many tricky questions about why he hadn’t done more to head off the new security agreement between China and Solomon Islands, that the Prime Minister made a strategic withdrawal on Saturday, refusing to hold a press conference.
That is a very rare and risky – some would say cowardly – decision for an Australian political leader to make during an election campaign.
Luckily for him most media let him off lightly, much preferring to beat up on Labor’s deputy leader Richard Marles whose shaky performance on China and coal left a scent of blood in the water. That allowed Morrison to regroup and recast the following day. He copied the “red line” threat delivered by the US, to warn: “We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep.”
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Buckle up for a wild ride as inflation goes viral
12:00AM April 28, 2022
What is most to blame for inflation: Vladimir Putin, supply bottlenecks or greedy corporations?
None of them, actually. Politicians will never concede it, preferring to blame factors outside their control, but the cause of this latest bout of inflation is our response to Covid-19: lockdowns that compelled governments to flood their economies with trillions of dollars in newly created money.
Corporations are no greedier than they were two years ago. Prices were rising before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And so-called supply bottlenecks – an attempt to palm off blame to the private sector – can’t explain why rents or services, which have little to do with international trade, are rising at the fastest pace in decades.
Prices are rising everywhere, regardless of what side of politics is in power. And the reason is too much money chasing too few goods and services.
In the US, where inflation has reached 8.9 per cent, the highest level in more than 40 years, President Joe Biden, an easy target given the Democrats’ policies, is being blamed. But it’s not his fault.
The Trump administration injected far more new money into the economy as a result of multi-trillion-dollar Covid relief stimulus payments financed by newly created money courtesy of the Federal Reserve.
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The threat of a global ‘buying strike’ rises as cost-of-living hits
The worry now is that anything people can cut back on — from eating out to summer holidays to new clothes, white goods, cars or gadgets — may take a hit if food, fuel and housing costs remain high.
Rana Foroohar Contributor
Apr 28, 2022 – 11.39am
Inflation in America is at a 40-year high, while household incomes, adjusted for rising prices, are falling at the fastest pace since the government began collecting data in 1959.
That’s largely because the cost of food, fuel and housing has been climbing so dramatically. The price of commodities shows no sign of going down much anytime soon, thanks to the war in Ukraine, while a tightly constrained housing market in the US may keep prices higher than normal for the next few years, even as interest rates rise.
But what about non-essential items? There one can see the beginning of a correction that may have surprising impacts for both business and markets. A recent report by Currency Research Associates, a US-based financial strategy firm, identified strong anecdotal evidence that a “global ‘buying strike’ is emerging”, as consumers around the world begin to cut back their spending on anything they don’t absolutely need.
The evidence for this is strongest in developing countries, where the spike in the price of basics (which are even more expensive when priced in depreciating currencies) has led to rolling blackouts, food insecurity and what amounts to a “removal” of hundreds of millions of people from the global consumer economy.
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This election could be one of the most important in Australian history
Australia remains a full democracy, but its main political parties have shown themselves unable to adjust to the policy and political requirements of the 21st century.
Anne Summers Columnist
Apr 29, 2022 – 5.00am
Most of us would have been mightily relieved when French President Emmanuel Macron was returned to office last Sunday with 58.55 per cent of the vote. For those who are anxious about the state of democracy worldwide, however, it is worth noting that his ultra-right-wing opponent, Marine Le Pen, secured 41.45 of the vote, which is 7 per cent more than she won in 2017.
Her support is rising, Macron’s fell from 66 per cent last time, and even in this most critical of elections, with French democracy and its future in Europe at stake, a full 28 per cent of the French electorate did not bother to vote.
I like to think Australians would vote even without compulsion. But we would not want to risk it, particularly in the current political environment, where our democracy is more challenged than possibly at any time in our past.
At least we still are a democracy, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Annual Democracy Index. Its 2021 report, published in February, ranks Australia as No. 9 among the mere 21 countries that The Economist classifies as “full democracies”.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-struggles-with-a-country-growing-apart-20220428-p5ah1s
Morrison struggles with a country growing apart
If Scott Morrison loses the election on May 21, it won’t be for lack of flying, though it might be for a lack of real-world voter interaction, writes Ron Mizen.
Ronald Mizen Economics correspondent
Apr 29, 2022 – 10.58am
Scott Morrison flew into Rockhampton late on Tuesday after starting the week with visits to Alice Springs, Darwin and Townsville. Such was the relentless pace of his campaigning, often the only sign the Prime Minister had been in a town was a story in the paper about a hyper-local announcement.
If Mr Morrison loses the election on May 21, it won’t be for lack of flying, though it might be for a lack of real-world voter interaction.
In Australia’s beef capital to re-announce a 450,000 regional jobs pledge and deliver a speech to party faithful, the PM’s arrival coincided with maverick LNP senator Matt Canavan pulling the pin on a political hand grenade.
Australia’s net-zero by 2050 climate goal was “dead”, Canavan declared, and panned the government’s plans to establish regional hydrogen hubs – all in time to make the front pages of the nation’s major newspapers.
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Australia has to end its long Pacific stupor before it’s too late
Australia’s neglect has allowed China to expand its grand strategy of global base-building into the Pacific. It is not too late for us to shore up our place in the region, writes the former head of RAMSI
Nick Warner
Apr 29, 2022 – 5.00am
For two generations, since the end of World War II, Australia has squandered the chance to build deep and enduring relations with our neighbours in the South Pacific. And now it’s almost too late.
The people-to-people links that were once so strong with countries such as PNG and Fiji have fallen away. Successive governments in Canberra have been preoccupied with what were seen as more pressing and more important issues elsewhere in the world, rather than focusing enough attention on our closest friends and neighbours.
As a result, the Pacific became something of a backwater. It was quiet. It was remote. Few other countries took much notice. Our Embassies and High Commissions were small, generally under-staffed and seldom headed by senior diplomats. Over the years Australia has had some excellent and experienced diplomats stationed through the Pacific – Greg Urwin, Matt Anderson and James Bartley come to mind. But generally the Pacific hasn’t been high on the priority list for up-and-coming diplomats; if you want to climb the career ladder, go for Washington or London.
It’s not that no attention was paid to the South Pacific. In the 1990s Labor’s Gordon Bilney worked hard to strengthen relations, followed by Richard Marles a decade later. Alexander Downer focused a lot of successful effort on PNG (Sandline and the Bougainville peace agreement that ended a brutal and bloody conflict) and Solomon Islands (the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands – RAMSI).
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-pledges-10-cut-to-medicines-co-payment-20220429-p5ahb7
Morrison pledges $10 cut to medicines co-payment
Ronald Mizen Economics correspondent
Apr 29, 2022 – 10.30pm
The price of medicines listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme will drop by $10 from January next year under an election commitment to be unveiled by Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Saturday.
The maximum co-payment for medications for blood pressure, high cholesterol, pain relief, depression, diabetes and other ailments will drop 24 per cent from $42.50 to $32.50; the first time the rate has been slashed.
“Which means those taking one medication a month could save $120 a year, or those taking two medications a month could save $240 a year,” Mr Morrison said while campaigning in Tasmania.
“This is the single most significant change to the cost of and access to medications since the PBS was introduced more than 70 years ago.”
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Australia needs to find the right role in the Pacific
Australia’s financial aid program in Pacific Island nations has not delivered the influence that we hoped for. Now we need to get a better idea of what the region really might want from us.
Mihai Sora
Apr 29, 2022 – 12.38pm
It’s hard to recall any Australian election where our relationships with Pacific Island countries have been hotly debated. The Solomon Islands-China security deal has triggered schoolyard taunting from senior party figures on both sides of politics about who dropped the ball.
Amid the taunts, there has been forensic scrutiny of the size of the aid budget – and whether it has been bigger under Labor or Coalition leadership.
Under any government, it’s easy to demonstrate that Australia has spent more in Solomon Islands than China – the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands cost $2.6 billion. By contrast, the most recent available data on China’s aid contribution to Solomon Islands was about $50 million committed in 2019. Australia spent three times more in the same year.
Increasing our aid budget will certainly deliver better development outcomes for Solomon Islands and the rest of the Pacific. But it will not buy Australia more influence.
Coalition served its dream campaign issues - and fails to deliver
Political and international editor
April 30, 2022 — 5.00am
Reality has knocked on the door of the federal election campaign. The big, dangerous reality beyond the tiny homes occupied by the political campaigns and their tiny plans. But who’s answered the door?
First came China’s hard knock on Australia’s security. Then came the knock of raging inflation, which must lead to rising interest rates, the rising cost of living rampant.
Neither was a complete surprise. Both pose serious challenges to the country. How did the Coalition and Labor, the two parties of government, respond?
The twin themes of national security and the economy are heaven-sent for the Coalition, nominally. These are the Liberal Party’s two great brand strengths and Labor’s brand weaknesses. These are the themes that Scott Morrison wanted to campaign on.
Morrison and his ministers had rhetoric at the ready. Morrison said that a Chinese military base on Solomon Islands would be a “red line”. He returned to his theme that Labor was “soft on China”. He’s earlier accused Labor leader Anthony Albanese of being “on China’s side” and its deputy leader, Richard Marles, of being a “Manchurian candidate”.
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Supercharge your retirement savings by working just six years longer
Stepping up super savings in the final years of work can deliver out-size returns.
Duncan Hughes Reporter
Apr 29, 2022 – 5.00am
A pre-retiree with $1 million in super can double the size of their nest egg in six years by remaining in the workforce, which would also lower the risk of outliving their savings and alleviate skill shortages.
Analysis by research group Rainmaker shows the impact of compounding investment returns when savings are at their pre-retirement highest and regularly topped up.
Executive director Alex Dunnin says: “The strategic message is simple. By delaying your retirement just by a few years, you save a lot more in super. But the flip side is you will get reduced age pension benefits.”
Take as an example someone aged 64 with $1 million in super who earns a salary of $150,000 and wants to make the maximum concessional contribution of $27,500 in each year until retiring at 70.
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Cost of life’s essentials climbs as campaign turns on price pressures
By Shane Wright and Rachel Clun
April 29, 2022 — 7.45pm
The prices of some household essentials have soared almost four times the rate of overall inflation since the Coalition came to power in 2013, despite the efforts of Scott Morrison to drive down key weekly expenses.
As new figures suggest the cost of building a house is going to get even more expensive this year, a breakdown of Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows huge increases in prices for everything from insurance to sending a child to high school.
Cost of living has been front and centre during the election campaign for the prime minister and Labor leader Anthony Albanese, with both claiming their parties were best placed to help Australians cope with higher prices.
“There are things you can do to help people dealing with those cost-of-living pressures. But we also have to be upfront about these pressures being real,” Morrison said on Friday.
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Labor promises shared equity scheme for struggling home buyers
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Apr 30, 2022 – 10.30pm
Perth | A federal Labor government will help 10,000 low and middle income home buyers enter the housing market each year by taking an equity stake of up to 40 per cent in the house they buy.
The home buyer would not pay rent on the portion of their house owned by the government. Instead, the government, or the taxpayer, would recoup its money, plus its share of the capital gain, when the property is sold.
The Help To Buy scheme will be unveiled by Anthony Albanese in Perth on Sunday at Labor’s official campaign launch for the May 21 election.
The announcement will come two days before the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to possibly raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade, ensuring housing affordability and cost of living remain a key issue in the election campaign.
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COVID 19 Information
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Only one in four patients fully recovered from COVID-19 after 12 months
By Laura Donnelly
April 25, 2022 — 8.50am
London: Just one in four patients who were hospitalised with COVID-19 are fully recovered a year later, a major study suggests.
The research involving more than 2000 patients in Britain shows that women, the obese and those who ended up on a ventilator were most likely to struggle with long COVID-19.
Scientists said there was an “urgent need” for the National Health Service to support a rapidly increasing patient group, who have no specific treatments available.
The new study suggests that poor recovery from COVID-19 is associated with inflammation of key proteins, which experts said should be targeted in the hunt for an effective cure. More than 830,000 patients have been hospitalised with COVID-19 in Britain since the start of the pandemic, official figures show.
The new study, published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine and presented at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases, tracked patients treated at 39 NHS hospitals in Britain.
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Give yourself a month: a guide to COVID-19 recovery
By Millie Muroi
April 25, 2022 — 7.00pm
Finally, a single line next to the “C” on your RAT – you’re COVID-free!
Whether you have a forceful case of FOMO after seeing your friends’ photos while you’ve been out of action or you’re happy to continue hunkering down, here’s what you should (and should not) be doing after you’ve fought off the initial infection.
Exercise: Slow and steady
Most of us don’t need an excuse to avoid running a gruelling 42-kilometre race, but infectious diseases physician at Canberra Hospital Peter Collignon reinforces a gradual return to high intensity activities.
“Listen to your body but not totally,” he says, adding that you should get outside as soon as you’ve knocked the virus. “Jog for a kilometre instead of running a marathon.”
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Covid lockdown panic grips Beijing
7:38PM April 26, 2022
Beijing officials have begun testing more than 20 million people in an urgent attempt to stop China’s capital joining Shanghai in a citywide lockdown.
A cascade of lockdowns throughout China has forced international economists to lower their growth forecasts for the world’s second-biggest economy.
Panicked Beijingers emptying supermarket shelves have further spooked global markets. The cluster in the capital has grown to 80 cases.
Shanghai on Tuesday declared 52 Covid deaths, the highest daily number in China since Wuhan’s original outbreak more than two years ago.
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Climate Change.
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Why we need to stop kidding ourselves about climate change
Climate change connects crucial Australian interests, and we are the developed country that has most to lose from climate disruption.
Ross Garnaut Contributor
Apr 25, 2022 – 2.06pm
The election campaign is being conducted as if Australia has no fundamental problems, and can afford to squabble over personality and trivia.
It is good that we have reduced our unnecessarily high unemployment and are talking about achieving full employment for the first time in half a century.
The fall in unemployment has come mainly from the combination of lower rates of temporary immigration and huge expansion of domestic demand funded by public debt.
For full employment to sustainably end the decade-long stagnation of living standards, the main source of growth must change. It must shift from debt-funded government spending towards investment in the trade-exposed industries with access to markets that will strengthen over time.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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The NDIS is a microcosm of all that’s wrong with service delivery
The massive disability scheme has problems because it has become a refuge for those on crumbling support services elsewhere.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Apr 29, 2022 – 5.37pm
Go to the website of Australia’s Productivity Commission and look for the link to the its 2017 report on the costs of the National Disability Insurance Scheme. The 533-page report’s overview alone takes up 48 pages.
Also on the website is a note in quite small print saying: “There has not been a government response to this study yet.”
The election campaign this week has pivoted back to the economy and the cost of living, with the release of the quarterly inflation numbers.
But the campaign debate about the cost of living is a gnarled little thing: the Coalition is running around saying it’s not the government’s fault, the opposition saying it is.
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National Budget Issues.
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What to do with small accumulation accounts in super
With the expanded contribution eligibility rules kicking in after July 1 for anyone under 75, you might want to consider your options more closely.
Ben Smythe Contributor
Apr 26, 2022 – 5.00am
This time of year is typically the busiest for self-managed super funds, with the rush to complete the prior financial year return overlapping with the current financial year superannuation contribution planning. This year also presents a new set of circumstances with many pension members potentially being able to make contributions again after July 1, 2022 without meeting a work test.
A common question that often falls out of the end-of-year financial return for pension members is what to do with any small accumulation account that exists in the SMSF at June 30.
This might be a legacy from when you started your pension with the maximum transfer balance cap at the time or a result of some ad-hoc work that generated superannuation guarantee contributions after you started your pension account.
If you are unable to take advantage of the new contribution eligibility rules, the most sensible option is to continue to convert any remaining accumulation account at year-end to a pension wherever possible.
With the expanded contribution eligibility rules kicking in after this July 1 for anyone under 75, you might want to consider your options a little more closely.
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‘Difficult balancing act’: Economists say case for pre-election rate rise strengthening
By Rachel Clun
April 26, 2022 — 5.00am
Talking points
· The RBA has said it wants to see wage and inflation data this month before starting to raise rates.
· But AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says the reasons for delaying are getting weaker.
EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy says Australia’s economic circumstances are such that it would be easy for the RBA to justify a rate rise next week.
The case for a pre-election interest rate rise is strengthening, top economists say, warning there is a growing risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched if the Reserve Bank does not act soon.
RBA governor Philip Lowe has said the board wants to see inflation data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics later this week and wage data due in mid-May before starting to raise rates for the first time in more than a decade.
While waiting until June to raise rates from a record low 0.1 per cent would help the RBA avoid taking political heat ahead of the May 21 federal election, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the reasons for delaying were getting weaker.
Wage growth data will not be released until after the board’s next meeting on May 3, but Oliver said all the evidence suggested it was only a matter of time before wage numbers picked up as well.
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Inflation soars to 5.1pc, points to campaign rate rise
Inflation has accelerated to its fastest pace in over two decades, lifting from 3.5 per cent to a blockbuster 5 per cent over the 12 months to March and laying the foundation for a RBA rate hike as early as next week.
Consumer prices lifted by 2.1 per cent over the first three months of the year, from 1.3 per cent in the previous quarter, driven by substantial gains in housing constructions costs and a 11 per cent lift in petrol prices.
The Reserve Bank’s preferred underlying measure of inflation – the trimmed mean, which excludes the most volatile price moves at either end – jumped from 1 per cent to 1.4 per cent over the quarter, while the annual rate surged from 2.6 per cent to 3.7 per cent.
The RBA targets inflation of between 2-3 per cent over the medium term, and the latest figures show the central bank now risks letting inflationary pressures get out of control if it does not move early.
The consensus forecast among economists had been for headline inflation in the March quarter to lift by 1.7 per cent over the three months, and by 4.6 per cent over the year.
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Inflation hits highest since 2001, rising to 5.1pc and threatening a RBA rate hike next week
April 27, 2022
Inflation has accelerated to its fastest pace in over two decades, lifting from 3.5 per cent to a blockbuster 5.1 per cent over the 12 months to March and laying the foundation for a RBA rate hike as early as next week.
Consumer prices lifted by 2.1 per cent over the first three months of the year, from 1.3 per cent in the previous quarter, driven by substantial gains in housing constructions costs and a 11 per cent lift in petrol prices.
The Reserve Bank’s preferred underlying measure of inflation – the trimmed mean, which excludes the most volatile price moves at either end – jumped from 1 per cent to 1.4 per cent over the quarter – the strongest since the ABS began producing the figure in 2002 – while the annual rate surged from 2.6 per cent to 3.7 per cent.
The RBA targets inflation of between 2-3 per cent over the medium term, and the latest figures show the central bank now risks letting inflationary pressures get out of control if it does not move early.
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Health Issues.
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Breakthrough on link with our ‘second brain’
7:12PM April 26, 2022
Australian researchers have made a crucial discovery that sheds light on how the nervous system in the gut communicates with the brain, with implications for the treatment of depression and neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson’s through altering the gut microbiota.
It has been well known that nerves from the spinal cord and brain communicate with the gut, but exactly how that interface occurs has not been clear until now.
Several scientific papers posited that there was a direct connection between cells within the gut and the brain and spinal cord, but researchers at Flinders University have now discovered that the communication likely occurs via a process of “diffusion” in which the specialised gut cells, known as enterochromaffin cells, release substances which then act on the sensory nerves that communicate with the brain.
“The gut is the only organ with its own nervous system, known as the enteric nervous system or the second brain,” said study author Nick Spencer from the College of Medicine and Public Health at Flinders University. “We now have a better understanding of how the second brain communicates with the first brain.”
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What you need to know about the liver disease hitting kids worldwide
Kanoko Matsuyama
Apr 28, 2022 – 6.45am
Tokyo | An outbreak of acute hepatitis in children has killed one and required liver transplants in at least 17 others across the globe, says the World Health Organisation. The cause has yet to be determined. But investigators are studying an adenovirus from a family of viruses that cause a range of illnesses, including the common cold.
1. When was it first reported and how many have been affected so far?
The first US cases were identified at an Alabama hospital in October last year, when five children were admitted with liver damage from an unknown cause. The World Health Organisation was notified on April 5 about 10 cases in previously healthy children in Scotland. Three days later, 74 cases had been identified in the UK.
Most of the 169 cases have been detected in the UK. – at 114 as of April 21 – followed by 13 in Spain, 12 in Israel, nine in the US and 21 more scattered among Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, Norway, France, Romania and Belgium, said the WHO.
On April 25, Japan’s health ministry said it found one probable case, raising concerns the disease is spreading outside of Europe and the US.
With more extensive searching, it’s “very likely that more cases will be detected before the cause can be confirmed and more specific control and prevention measures can be implemented”, the WHO said in a statement.
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Gene variations linked to predisposed risk of severe Covid
4:00AM April 29, 2022
Variants in genes that predispose people to certain health conditions have been found to be associated with the risk of developing severe Covid-19.
A study of 650,000 veterans by Australian and US scientists found particularly strong links between gene variants that caused deep vein thrombosis, type 2 diabetes and heart disease, known risk factors for severe Covid-19.
Links were also found with a number of respiratory conditions.
However, some gene variants that predisposed people to severe Covid-19 were associated with a lower risk of developing some auto-immune conditions such as psoriasis and lupus.
The study builds on previous research that has linked genetic mutations with the risk of severe Covid-19. The findings have implications for Covid-19 treatments, as certain aspects of the immune system and genetic variant links would have to be considered when developing new drugs.
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International Issues.
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Russia returns to Stalin era as spies monitor emotions
James Kilner
Apr 24, 2022 – 10.20am
The Kremlin has started planting Soviet-style political commissars into Russian government ministries and state-owned companies to report to the president’s office on the “emotional state and mood” of staff.
In a plan that harks back to the paranoia of Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union in the 1930s, these “political officers” will also push Vladimir Putin’s agenda and ensure official support for his war in Ukraine stays on track.
“This idea was born last year and now it has become especially relevant.
“Similar work has already been carried out, but now it will be co-ordinated by the Kremlin’s domestic political bloc,” Russia’s Kommersant newspaper reported.
“Through this system, employees at all levels will be explained both their goals and objectives and the national policies and, at the right time, ‘signals’ will be sent to the Kremlin from this network,” Kommersant wrote.
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This expert explains why market doomsayers are wrong
Vildana Hajric and Romaine Bostick
Apr 24, 2022 – 11.47am
Dreary headlines wash over investors every day – war in Ukraine, inflation, the unending spread of COVID-19, supply-chain troubles. All the gloom has market analysts downgrading prospects for US growth and predicting a recession.
But what if their projections are overblown? Sylvia Jablonski, the chief executive, chief investment officer and co-founder of Defiance ETFs, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to talk about why she’s optimistic about the market’s prospects for the rest of the year and why she likes stocks tied to the economic reopening.
Below are lightly edited and condensed highlights of the conversation.
Q: How are you making sense of recent market volatility?
A: If you ask the average investor, my guess is that they would say it doesn’t feel super good to be invested in the market this year. It’s not as fun as it has been for the last decade, let’s say, or even those few months post-COVID where everything just started going straight up and all of our trading accounts looked great, we all looked like geniuses. And now, the market just has a lot of headwinds. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. You have a Fed that wants to raise rates to lower inflation and not create a recession. You hear about this soft landing. Inflation has been higher than ever, you have issues with geopolitics, you have a war – the Russia-Ukraine situation. You have a strain on perhaps major commodities – oil, gas, and then you start going down, depending on how long this goes, into wheat and different things. And you have a lot of, essentially, fear that the combination of Fed hikes and inflation will create a situation where we’re in stagflation or perhaps just don’t have great growth in the future.
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Macron wins French election, but Le Pen vows to fight on
Mimosa Spencer, Layli Foroudi and Ingrid Melander
Updated Apr 25, 2022 – 8.17am, first published at 5.44am
Paris | Emmanuel Macron comfortably defeated his far-right rival Marine Le Pen on Sunday, heading off a political earthquake for Europe but acknowledging dissatisfaction with his first term and saying he would seek to make amends.
His supporters erupted with joy as the results appeared on a giant screen at the Champ de Mars park by the Eiffel Tower.
Leaders in Berlin, Brussels, London and beyond welcomed his defeat of the nationalist, eurosceptic Le Pen.
But even as exit polls showed a solid 58.5 per cent of the vote, Macron in his victory speech acknowledged many had only voted for him only to keep Le Pen out and he promised to address the sense of many French that their living standards are slipping.
“Many in this country voted for me not because they support my ideas but to keep out those of the far-right. I want to thank them and know I owe them a debt in the years to come,” he said.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/russians-suffer-major-losses-in-last-chance-donbass-20220425-p5aft4
Russians suffer major losses in ‘last-chance’ Donbass
Daniel Capurro
Apr 25, 2022 – 7.50am
Ukraine successfully repelled Russian assaults across the Donbass region in the first week since the second phase of the war began, according to British intelligence sources.
While Russia had made some gains, “Ukrainian resistance has been strong across all axes and inflicted significant cost on Russian forces”, Britain’s Defence Intelligence said on Sunday.
It came as analysts warned Russian forces may only have one chance to win the war before exhausting their army.
Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA in Washington DC, has said that the battle is “the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state and availability of forces”.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/washington-boosts-heavy-arms-for-ukraine-20220422-p5afhg
US boosts heavy arms for Ukraine as mass grave expands
Robert Burns
Apr 22, 2022 – 5.02pm
Washington | The Biden administration’s decision to dramatically ramp up delivery of artillery guns to Ukraine signals a deepening American commitment at a pivotal stage of fighting for the country’s industrial heartland.
It also brings into stark relief Moscow’s warning that continued US military aid to Ukraine would have “unpredictable” consequences, suggesting that Russia considers the international wave of weaponry as a growing obstacle to its invasion as well as a Western provocation.
“We’re in a critical window” of time now, President Joe Biden said on Thursday (Friday AEST), announcing he had approved an additional $US800 million ($1 billion) in battlefield aid, including 72 of the US Army’s 155mm howitzers, 144,000 artillery rounds and more than 120 armed drones that will require Ukrainian operators to be trained.
It brings the United States’ total commitment to $US3.4 billion since Russia began its invasion February 24 – an extraordinary level of military aid for a country to which it has no defence treaty obligation.
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The awful truth is dawning: Putin may win in Ukraine. The result would be catastrophe
A Russian victory would herald a new age of instability, economic fragmentation, hunger for millions and social unrest
Sun 24 Apr 2022 15.00 AESTLast modified on Sun 24 Apr 2022 18.36 AEST
The contrast was startling. In New York, António Guterres, the UN secretary general, launched a belated, desperately needed initiative to halt the war in Ukraine. “At this time of great peril and consequence, he [Guterres] would like to discuss urgent steps to bring about peace,” his spokesman said. The UN chief, he revealed, was proposing immediate, in-person talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv.
At roughly the same time as this hopeful development unfolded, the UK’s Boris Johnson, riding a “Partygate” getaway plane to India, was colourfully rubbishing peace efforts. Putin, he claimed, was an untrustworthy reptile. “I really don’t see how the Ukrainians can easily sit down and come to some kind of accommodation. How can you negotiate with a crocodile when it’s got your leg in its jaws?” Johnson asked.
This gaping disconnect is doubly disturbing. It suggests lack of coordination between the UN chief and a permanent member of the UN security council on how best to proceed. It also highlights a wider problem: diverging, sometimes opposing, occasionally self-serving, approaches to the crisis by western leaders who have hitherto trumpeted their unity of purpose.
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Have sharemarkets seen the bottom in this correction?
For stocks to suffer the extra leg down, the economy needs to be either in, or on the cusp of, recession.
James Weir Contributor
Apr 25, 2022 – 11.22am
Every share market correction throws up opportunities to pick up some bargains. While those opportunities can make a significant difference to a portfolio, any investment will be tinged with trepidation that the correction isn’t yet over.
While there is absolutely nobody on the planet who can be certain, a very sound argument can be made that, on the balance of probabilities, it is likely we have seen the bottom in this correction. That one sentence contains three caveats, which is to underline that no matter how sound the argument appears to be, it is no more than conjecture.
First, that call is much braver in relation to the US market than in Australia, which has benefited enormously from a relatively large weighting in commodity-related companies. Given the US’s influence on global financial markets, this argument focuses on the US.
JPMorgan points out the average share price decline of US stocks to the recent low on March 8 is pretty comparable to large past corrections, as long as the economy doesn’t go into recession.
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The ominous warning from the US bond market
Global sharemarkets are on edge, as investors remain sceptical of central bankers’ determination to bring runaway inflation to heel.
Karen Maley Columnist
Apr 25, 2022 – 3.47pm
Global sharemarkets are in disarray as the intensifying sell-off in bond markets threatens to send the yield on the US 10-year bond – which influences borrowing costs for consumers and businesses around the world – above the critically important 3 per cent threshold.
Analysts point out that the 3 per cent level has traditionally represented a dividing line for the performance of the US sharemarket.
Since 1950, US equities have delivered annualised monthly returns of 21.9 per cent on average in periods when the US 10-year bond yield has been below 3 per cent.
But in periods when bond yields have climbed above 3 per cent, annualised monthly returns have only averaged 10.0 per cent. At the same time, higher yields have been associated with increased volatility and more frequent monthly losses.
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Worst is yet to come for supply chain crisis: Rabobank
April 25, 2022
On Friday Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of palm oil, cancelled all exports from April 28 until further notice. The shock announcement happens just as Ukraine’s supply of sunflower oil – making up almost half world exports – is off the market.
Sitting in Singapore, Rabobank’s global chief strategist financial markets Michael Every says the world faces a perfect storm.
Trade is about politics not balance sheets, the US has weaponised its currency, a lack of trust means countries keep their resources rather than sell to others and inflation is building.
“There is not a business that isn’t going to be affected by this one way or another,” he says.
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The IMF is dreaming about the global economy’s soft landing
The idea that an outright recession can be avoided as interest rates rise to tackle inflation and the China cushion deflates may be wishful thinking.
Stephen Roach Contributor
Apr 26, 2022 – 12.15pm
The predictable downward revision cycle for the global economic outlook has officially begun. That’s the message from the semi-annual World Economic Outlook report just released by the International Monetary Fund, which reinforces earlier revisions from several prominent private forecasting teams.
The revision, largely in response to the war in Ukraine, is a big one – a sharp reduction in world economic growth to 3.6 per cent for 2022, fully 1.3 percentage points below the IMF’s global growth forecast of 4.9 per cent made just six months earlier.
To its credit, the IMF warned that this was coming, with an interim downward revision of 0.5 percentage point previously released in January. Even so, in looking back over the past 15 years, this is the third-largest cut in the IMF’s regular six-month revision cycle.
In April 2009, as the global financial crisis (GFC) was unfolding, the IMF cut its global growth estimate for the year by 4.3 percentage points (taking its pre-crisis projection of 3 per cent positive growth down to an outright contraction of -1.3 per cent).
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/the-sun-is-set-to-rise-over-east-timor-20220425-p5ag0k
The sun is set to rise over East Timor
If Australia does not support East Timor in developing the Greater Sunrise gas field, after the diplomatic mishandling of a security pact with Solomon Islands, China will.
Grant Wilson Contributor
Apr 26, 2022 – 9.19am
When José Ramos-Horta, a Nobel laureate, won his second term as president of East Timor on Thursday last week, there was radio silence from Australia.
“As one of the world’s newest nations, and one of our closest neighbours, we commend the Timorese authorities, including the Technical Secretariat for Election Administration and the National Elections Commission, for the passage of a free, fair and transparent election. We look forward to working with the government of East Timor to improve the livelihoods of our friends, the Timorese people, and to enhance the peace and security of our region.”
Something like that would have done.
The US State Department, on behalf of President Joe Biden, said as much. The European Union did the same. And there were shout-outs from Portugal’s president (mindful of the colonial history), and South Korea’s Ban Ki-moon, former UN secretary general.
For reference, in May 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison publicly congratulated President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand and Prime Minister James Marape of Papua New Guinea on their election results.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-world-s-growth-engines-are-now-sputtering-20220425-p5afzi
The world’s growth engines are now sputtering
Sharp growth downgrades from the IMF are not just a blip. Traditional growth models driven by exports and foreign investment are losing their potency.
Mohamed El-Erian Contributor
Apr 25, 2022 – 5.08pm
The International Monetary Fund’s revised World Economic Outlook is sobering. It is rare for the organisation to revise down sharply its projections for economic growth just one quarter into the calendar year. Yet in this case, it has done so for 86 per cent of its 190 member countries, resulting in a decline of almost 1 percentage point in global growth for 2022 – from 4.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent.
Moreover, this forecast is accompanied by a significant increase in projected inflation, and all this bad news is packaged in a wrapping of deeper uncertainty. There is a downward bias in the balance of risks, and inequality is expected to worsen both within and across countries.
The IMF’s revision is attracting a great deal of media attention. The focus, understandably, is on the relatively large size of the revisions for the current year, most of which are associated with the detrimental economic effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The war has disrupted the supply of corn, gas, metals, oil and wheat, as well as pushing up the price of critical inputs such as fertiliser (which is made from natural gas). These developments have prompted warnings of a looming global food crisis and a severe increase in world hunger.
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Russia suspending gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria
April 27, 2022 — 6.53am
Warsaw: Poland and Bulgaria say Russia is halting their gas supplies starting on Wednesday, the first such actions of the Ukraine war.
The governments of the two European countries said on Tuesday that Russian energy giant Gazprom informed them it was halting gas supplies.
The suspensions would be the first since Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that “unfriendly” foreign buyers would have to pay the state-owned Gazprom in roubles instead of other currencies.
Europe imports large amounts of Russian natural gas to heat homes, generate electricity and fuel industry. The imports have continued despite the war in Ukraine.
About 60 per cent of imports are paid in euros, and the rest in dollars. Putin’s demand was apparently intended to help bolster the Russian currency amid the war in Ukraine.
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China’s transformed military must not be underestimated
Military leader and strategist
April 27, 2022 — 5.00am
After its 2008 operations in Georgia, Russia began a series of reforms that set the groundwork for its recent invasion of Ukraine.
This makeover saw a reorganisation of the Russian military from its Cold War structures to what we were led to believe was a more professional, and advanced institution of “higher readiness”.
At the same time, it issued new doctrine on warfare, and integrated lessons from operations in Syria.
But the ultimate test of such transformation programs lies on the battlefield. In this regard, the Russian military reforms appear to have been suboptimal at best.
Military leaders, planners and analysts are carefully watching Russian reforms versus performance. And perhaps those watching the closest are sitting in Beijing.
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Vladimir Putin health concerns as video shows Russian President ‘shaking uncontrollably’
A resurfaced video of Vladimir Putin “shaking uncontrollably” has sparked speculation that the Russian dictator is seriously unwell.
Felix Allen, Adrian Zorzut and Henry Holloway
April 27, 2022 - 7:21AM
A wobbling Vladimir Putin has sparked rumours he has major health problems after footage resurfaced showing him shaking uncontrollably.
The Russian tyrant’s hands tremble violently in a clip showing him greet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko at the Kremlin, The Sun reports.
A feeble-looking Putin - who has been dogged by claims he has Parkinson’s or terminal cancer - holds his wobbling hand out to greet Lukashenko before quickly retracting and walking around the room.
Putin looks unsteady and his knees buckle as he walks to embrace his Belarusian counterpart in the undated footage viewed more than 1 million times.
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5:32 am 27 July 2022
'Immediate proportional response': Russia warns UK
Australia was one of 40 countries agreeing to help Ukraine’s short term military needs and long term security issues at a United States-led meeting at the US defence airbase Ramstein in Germany overnight (AEST).
But the gathering – the first of proposed monthly meetings to bring together democratic and friendly countries to help thwart Russia’s aggression – was overshadowed by a sudden escalation in tensions between Moscow and London.
Britain's Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said it was completely legitimate for Ukraine to use British-donated weapons to attack Russian targets in Russia. He said such attacks on Russian supply lines would not necessarily be a problem.
“It’s completely legitimate for Ukraine to be targeting in Russia’s depth in order to disrupt the logistics that if they weren’t disrupted would directly contribute to death and carnage on Ukrainian soil,” Heappey said.
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Threat of World War III over Ukraine is real, says Russia’s Sergei Lavrov
By Joshua Melvin and Sylvie Lanteaume
AFP
2:04PM April 26, 2022
Russia warned of the “real” threat of World War III breaking out, ahead of a meeting between the US and allies over sending further arms to war-torn Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the risk of a World War III “is serious” and criticised Kyiv’s approach to floundering peace talks.
“It is real, you can’t underestimate it,” he said.
While he said talks with Kyiv would continue, Mr Lavrov accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of “pretending” to negotiate, adding: “You’ll find a thousand contradictions.”
Moscow’s invasion of its neighbour has triggered an outburst of support from Western nations that has seen weapons pour into the country to help it wage war against Russian troops.
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Equipment losses could stop Moscow fighting more wars
By Larisa Brown
The Times
9:19AM April 27, 2022
Russia has burnt through so much of its equipment during two months of fighting in Ukraine that it could be “years” before it is ready for another war, analysts believe.
Mark Cancian, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, said Russia had produced about 250 tanks and 150 aircraft annually in recent years.
Based on estimates for Russian kit lost so far, Ukrainian forces destroyed the equivalent of at least two years of Russian tank production and one year of aircraft production, he said. He is still analysing data for Russia’s missiles, but guessed the Kremlin could have already used several years’ of production against Ukrainian targets.
“It will take years for Russia to rebuild its inventories,” Cancian told The Times. As for any impact on the conflict under way in the eastern Donbas region, he believes that at some point Russia will have to curb its use of long-range precision missiles, which are expensive and reliant on sophisticated electronics, because its “inventories are getting low”.
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Ukraine invasion: Desperate Vladimir Putin prepares to mobilise for war without end
The Times
April 27, 2022
Vladimir Putin’s existential decision, the gamble of his life, is whether to declare a general mobilisation of able-bodied Russian men. It would mark the end of the pretence that Moscow is simply running a “special operation” in Ukraine and it would usher in a protracted war that would shape Europeans, in the west as well as the east, for a generation.
Putin has been reluctant to take that step. Tsar Nicholas II ordered a general mobilisation of Russia on July 30, 1914; two days later Germany declared war on Russia and the die was cast, not just for bloodshed but also domestic upheaval and revolution at home. In modern times, general mobilisation raises the possibility of a stop-the-war movement, of Kremlin infighting, of martial-law style measures – and with no guarantee that it will be successful.
But the depletion of his troops may leave Putin with little choice other than to escalate or go home trumpeting a transparently fake victory, a lipsticked pig. Here’s Michael Kofman, Russian military analyst at the CNA think tank: “Without national mobilisation, I think the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state and availability of forces. Whether it succeeds or fails, the Russian military will be largely exhausted in terms of offensive potential.”
It’s difficult to disagree. Russian units have become less combat-effective, not just because of casualties and fatigue but also because of disabled vehicles. General mobilisation could improve morale and bestow a sense of national mission on the invasion force, but it would not fix the structural problems facing the Russians: the quality of generalship, the lack of flexibility, the poor co-ordination of advancing tanks, accompanying infantry and air support, the jumbled supply lines.
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Republican leaders remain shackled to Donald Trump
The Wall Street Journal
7:21PM April 26, 2022
If the revelation that an ambitious politician says one thing to one audience and another to somebody else comes as a shock to you, you might want to get out more.
While the sheer scale and quantity of their falsehoods lead to speculation that politicians are born with a particular laryngeal feature that facilitates speech from both sides of the mouth, it’s only because of the very public nature of their work that their mendacity gets so much attention.
The phenomenon is in fact ubiquitous. The benefits of instrumental mendacity — the wilful telling of falsehoods to advance one’s own interests — are so large that only a few saintly figures in human history have been able to resist the temptation. And even then, we learn that history probably lied about their truthfulness. Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.
So it’s not exactly shocking to discover, in a new book by New York Times reporters Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns, that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told fellow GOP leaders on a conference call a few days after last year’s Capitol riot, that he was going to tell then president Trump that he would be impeached for his role and should resign.
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Putin’s war is causing a many-sided economic shock
This invasion follows pestilence and threatens famine. Together these are three of Ezekiel’s four “disastrous” judgments of the Lord. Alas, the fourth, death, follows the other three.
Martin Wolf Columnist
Apr 27, 2022 – 2.05pm
Wars are also big economic shocks. The Vietnam War destabilised US public finances. The Korean War of 1950-53 and the Yom Kippur war of 1973 triggered huge increases in prices of vital commodities.
This time, too, a war directly involving Russia, a huge energy exporter, and Ukraine, an important exporter of many other commodities, notably cereals, is raising inflation and causing sharp reductions in the real incomes of consumers. More important, the war has added to already pervasive stresses on economies, international relations and global governance.
The walkout by Western ministers and central bankers from last week’s G20 meeting, as the Russian delegation spoke, was a sobering reminder of our divided world.
Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world had not recovered from the economic costs of COVID-19, let alone its wider social and political effects. Supply disruptions were pervasive and inflation had soared to unexpectedly high levels.
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‘Enormous impact’: US intelligence prevented the fall of Kyiv
By Rozina Sabur
April 28, 2022 — 8.00am
Washington: America helped foil Moscow’s efforts to take Kyiv and repelled its advances elsewhere by sharing such detailed intelligence that Ukraine knew exactly when and where Russian bombs would fall, it has emerged.
In an unprecedented information-sharing operation, US spy agencies divulged the co-ordinates of Russian forces and aircraft to Ukrainian troops, allowing them to pre-empt attacks.
The intelligence led Ukraine to shoot down a Russian aircraft carrying troops to Hostomel airport in the Kyiv suburbs in the early days of the war, according to NBC News. The downing of the plane helped thwart Moscow’s hopes of flooding the area with troops and equipment.
Earlier reports suggested several Russian helicopters were hit by missiles before they reached the airport. An effort to take control of a military airbase in Vasylkiv, south of Kyiv, also met stiff resistance.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/food-fertiliser-and-the-future-20220428-p5agpn.html
Food, fertiliser and the future
By Paul Krugman
Updated April 28, 2022 — 10.01amfirst published at 10.00am
As anyone who drives is aware, petrol prices are up a lot from their 2020 low. First, the global economic recovery drove up oil demand, then Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine cut into Russian oil exports.
But prices both at the pump and at the wellhead have stabilised, at least for now. By historical standards, real gas prices — prices relative to the overall cost of living — aren’t that high; in fact, they’re lower than they were from 2006 to 2014. And as of Tuesday morning, Texas crude oil was back below $US100 a barrel.
Yet, while the energy crunch may be a bit less severe than some imagine, there’s a huge crisis in the global food supply. Indeed, over the past year the surge in wheat prices has been much bigger than the surge in oil prices. This hurts especially in poorer nations, where a much larger share of family spending goes to food. What’s behind the food crisis?
One piece of the story is obvious: Ukraine is normally a major agricultural exporter, but that’s hard to do when Russia is bombarding your railroads and blockading your ports. But there’s more to the story: Russia has halted much of its own grain exports, apparently in an attempt to hold down domestic prices. Kazakhstan, the region’s third-largest agricultural exporter, has followed suit.
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Putin threatens West with 'lightning fast' retalition
28 April, 2022
Vladimir Putin has threatened “lightning fast’’ action if western countries interfere with Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, hours after he escalated tensions by cutting off gas to Poland and Bulgaria and was accused of initiating a crisis on the pro-Russian Moldovian border area of Transnistria.
The Russian president responded to a distinct shift in tone from key ministers in Britain and the United States in recent days, who have spoken about dismantling Russia’s military strength and providing heavy weaponry for the Ukrainians to do so. Putin claimed NATO and the west wanted to cut Russia up into different pieces.
“If someone intends to interfere in what is going on from the outside they must know that constitutes an unacceptable strategic threat to Russia,” Putin told parliamentarians sitting in St Petersburg.
“They must know that our response to counterstrikes will be lightning fast. Fast,” he said.
In an apparent reference to the new super long range 10-tonne Sarmat missile, which can carry nuclear warheads and unleash 10 to 15 rockets simultaneously, Putin added: “We have all the weapons we need for this. No one else can brag about these weapons, and we won’t brag about them. But we will use them.”
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World War III is far more likely than anyone is prepared to admit
By Allister Heath
April 29, 2022 — 8.04am
London: We have been remarkably lucky so far. Human beings invented nuclear weapons 77 years ago, but haven’t used them to slaughter each other since Nagasaki.
We created long-range rockets, as Vladimir Putin reminded us again last week when he unveiled his “Satan II” Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles, but have avoided using them to annihilate our rivals’ cities.
We are playing with genetic engineering, space travel, AI, and even enhancing the virulence of some pathogens, but have yet to deliberately use any of these technologies for mass warfare.
With good fortune comes hubris and complacency: the chances of another major global conflict – and, at worst, another world war – are much higher than we realise, and are continuing to increase. Nobody knows the exact probability, but even a 10 per cent chance of a global catastrophe this century would be terrifying, and ought to justify an urgent, renewed focus in every Western country on making sure Armageddon can be avoided through robust deterrence, new alliances, vast investments in defensive weaponry and urgent diplomatic engagement.
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China pledges to stabilise economy as COVID-19 closures raise risks
Kevin Yao
Apr 29, 2022 – 5.21pm
Beijing | China will step up policy support to stabilise the economy, including its embattled internet platforms, as domestic COVID-19 outbreaks and the Ukraine war raise risks, a top decision-making of the ruling Communist Party said on Friday, lifting markets.
Chinese policymakers face an uphill battle to ward off an economic slowdown that threatens job losses in a politically sensitive year, as COVID-19 lockdowns disrupt supply chains and jolt businesses.
Friday’s state media reports on the much-anticipated meeting of the Politburo sent Chinese shares prices surging, especially among internet stocks that have been battered by last year’s clampdown on the so-called “platform economy”.
China will adopt a package of policies to help COVID-hit industries and small companies, state media reports said, citing the Politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping.
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‘The war will drag on’: NATO expects Ukraine to be fighting for years
By Inna Varenytsia and David Keyton
Updated April 29, 2022 — 5.00pmfirst published at 4.58am
Talking points
· NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warns the war could last for years.
· Two explosions rocked Kyiv after a meeting between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
· US President Joe Biden asked Congress for more aid for Ukraine, a signal that the US is prepared to mount a long-term campaign.
Kyiv: The head of the United Nations said Ukraine has become “an epicentre of unbearable heartache and pain” — a description underscored a short time later by the first Russian strike on the capital since Moscow’s forces retreated weeks ago.
Russia pounded targets all over Ukraine on Thursday, including the attack on Kyiv that struck a residential high-rise and another building and wounded 10 people, including at least one who lost a leg, according to Ukraine’s emergency services.
The bombardment came barely an hour after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a news conference with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who toured some of the destruction in and around Kyiv and condemned the attacks on civilians.
NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the war in Ukraine could drag on for years.
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3.45PM
Armed forces pile pressure on Putin to unleash full might
The Telegraph
When Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine at the end of February, Vladimir Putin dubbed it a “special operation” and barred Russian media from using the word “war”, thinking it would all be over in a few weeks.
More than two months later, the offensive has stalled, and an increasingly impatient Russian military establishment is pushing Putin to declare an “all-out war”.
“The military are outraged that the blitz on Kyiv has failed,” Irina Borogan, a Russian journalist and author with contacts in the security services said.
“People in the army are seeking payback for failures of the past, and they want to go further in Ukraine.”
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On a knife-edge: China is facing double disaster between COVID and Putin
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
April 29, 2022 — 3.15pm
China should abandon all illusions that the West is in terminal decline, or that a new world order of authoritarian regimes is dawning.
It should ditch Vladimir Putin immediately. The country should not be tainted by the retrograde adventurism of a loser. Beijing should instead seek a new concordat with Washington, acting as a conciliatory stakeholder power.
So concluded a sizzlingly cogent essay by Chinese foreign policy guru Hu Wei in March after Russia’s blitzkrieg failed to take Kyiv. Professor Hu heads the Shanghai Public Policy Research Institute, linked to reformers at the State Council.
The essay circulated for several days in China before being expunged, a sign of powerful dissent against the pro-Putin policies of President Xi Jinping. The Carter Centre ran an English version.
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Kremlin turns to submarines after loss of Moskva
By Maxim Tucker and Michael Evans
The Times
May 1, 2022
Russia has announced that it is using submarines to fire cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets after the sinking of its Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, in its first admission of such a manoeuvre.
The Russian Ministry of Defence said on Friday that it had used a submarine to strike Ukraine with Kalibr precision missiles, releasing a video that it said showed the attack.
Satellite images taken by the Maxar space technology firm show a Kilo-class submarine in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Crimea, being loaded with missiles thought to be Kalibrs.
The Russian Black Sea fleet has moved further off the coast after its Atlant class missile cruiser sank on April 14, apparently struck by two Ukrainian Neptune rockets launched from Odesa.
A large queue extended through Kyiv’s Independence Square on April 18, as Ukrainians waited for a chance to get… their hands on a copy of a new stamp of a Ukrainian soldier showing defiance to a Russian warship. The Ukrainian Postal Service announced on April 18 that of More
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It’s a whole new war … and one Putin can’t win
The West has moved from supporting Ukraine to actively seeking the total defeat of Russia.
April 30, 2022
Welcome to the new cold war.
That is the blunt message from Washington to Vladimir Putin this week as the fighting in Ukraine increasingly threatens to spread beyond its borders.
After more than two months of war, the Biden administration this week recast its ambitions for Ukraine well beyond its initial aim of trying from a distance to help Kyiv repel the Russian invaders.
An increasingly confident US is now framing the conflict as a generational battle to weaken Putin’s Russia and stop Moscow from any future military adventurism.
“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things it has done in invading Ukraine,” said the usually cautiously spoken US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.
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Dow tumbles more than 900 points, Nasdaq books worst month since 2008 crash
By Dow Jones
Dow Jones
10:13AM April 30, 2022
Stocks tumbled into the closing bell Friday, with all three major equity indexes shedding more than 2.7% to end an ugly week and month on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 938 points, or 2.8%, ending the session near 32,977. Continued carnage in technology-related stocks left the S&P 500 index down 3.6% on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 4.2%.
It also marked the worst month for the Dow and S&P 500 since March 2020, but the 13.3% monthly skid for the Nasdaq was its biggest drop since October 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Investor were digesting disappointing quarterly results from Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN), which reported its first loss in seven years. The Federal Reserve next week is expected to pull the trigger on its first half-percentage point interest rate increase since 2000, as it looks to potentially tighten financial conditions dramatically to fight inflation that’s been running at 40-year highs.
The central bank also could begin reducing its near $9 trillion balance sheet, reversing its large-scale asset purchases used to help stabilise markets during the Covid crisis.
The Wall Street Journal
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
