This appeared a
few days ago:
America takes dead aim at China’s plan for global AI domination
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
October
19, 2023 — 5.11am
The
US is escalating its semiconductor war against China. Xi Jinping’s plan for
global mastery of artificial intelligence and supercomputing is about to
collide with the hard reality of American power.
Cutting-edge
AI requires ultra-fast chips and enormous “compute” power to train large
language models as they draw on ever larger pools of data. Any company that
lacks access to these chips will see costs spiral upwards, leaving it unable to
compete at the technology frontier.
Nvidia,
the US market leader in AI chips, says the rule of thumb is that the computing
power required doubles every six to 12 months. China has spent some $US100
billion ($157 billion) in three successive “Manhattan Projects” trying to
develop a world-class chip industry, but is not yet close to parity. It lacks
access to the lithography needed to master miniaturisation below 7nm
(nanometres).
The
Biden administration has been pulling its punches on semiconductor controls,
but this is about to change. The departments of state, defence, commerce, and
energy have agreed on a tougher regime for advanced chips and
supercomputing technology.
It
will split the world into two camps: either you are in the advanced US sphere,
or you are in the Chinese sphere with areas of strength in “mid-critical” semiconductors
but a step behind where it really matters.
The
White House imposed restrictions on chip exports to China a year ago. It
limited the rate of data transfer to 600 gigabytes per second (GB/s) and to
computation power of 4800 trillion operations per second (TOPS). Nvidia has
continued to supply China but with modified chips that halve the rate of data
transfer. This makes no difference for chips in laptops or 4G mobile. It is
critical for AI or weapons technology.
It
will split the world into two camps: either you are in the advanced US sphere,
or you are in the Chinese sphere with areas of strength in “mid-critical”
semiconductors but a step behind where it really matters.
Washington will now tighten the noose. It will happen just
as Nvidia rolls out a new chip next year that will be three times faster. “The
technological gap between cutting-edge chips and what China is permitted to buy
is set to widen,” said a report by Capital Economics.
China’s
semiconductor champion SMIC has cracked homegrown chips at scale down to 7nm
for Huawei’s new smartphone. This is impressive, but it is still not enough to
play in the top league of global AI. Catching up will become even harder
henceforth. “They are close to reaching the limits of what is achievable with
deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) machines,” said the report.
China
needs the next generation of “extreme” ultraviolet lithography (EUV) just to
match the 4nm AI chips manufactured for Nvidia by TSMC in Taiwan, let alone for
even better chips. The only company in the world that makes these rare $US200
million machines is the Dutch firm ASML, itself reliant on critical components
from California. The ASML devices are covered by the US embargo.
It
will take years for China to replicate its own EUV capability, years that China
does not have. By then the contours of the AI revolution will be established,
framing the world’s digital and economic ecosystem far into the 21st century.
It is
possible that China could leapfrog today’s existing silicon wafers by jumping
to advanced compound semiconductors based on graphene or silicon carbide that
are ten times faster, or by using photonics that can move data at the speed of
light – both areas where Britain is a world leader.
These
have the potential to slash energy use and overtake the current “fabs” being
built at $US20 billion a shot in Europe. Chinese cyber-espionage is working
overtime trying to hack the technology, but that is easier said than done.
Capital
Economics says the AI revolution could lift productivity rates by 1.5
percentage points a year in the long run, but only for the winners. The US will
top the AI rankings over the next two decades because of its overwhelming lead
in investment, backed by vibrant capital markets and elite universities. It
will be followed by Singapore, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden, South Korea, and
Canada, in that order.
“This
would mean a gradual – but striking – end to the period of low productivity
growth which has dogged developed economies for most of this century,” said
Neil Shearing, the group’s chief economist. It could lift annual tax revenues
by 2 per cent of GDP – ceteris paribus – and make it much easier to outgrow
sovereign debt burdens.
Rather
than seeing the rise of the Global South as the West declines, we may see the
West pull ahead again. Asian tigers that cleave to the US will prosper. Those
that cleave to China will reap fewer gains.
Stanford
University’s AI Index shows that the UK has captured as much private investment
in AI as the whole of the eurozone combined. London has burgeoned into a global
AI cluster with Google DeepMind and Stability AI, among others, but what it
lacks is serious computing power. Electricity costs are too high to meet the
voracious needs of data centres.
Capital
Economics thinks Europe will drop the ball on AI, just as it dropped the ball
on the IT and digital revolution. “History may be repeating itself,” it said.
The Nordics will do well, but the large eurozone states will be held back by
labour rigidities, lack of venture capital and poor cloud infrastructure.
The
emerging economies and most of the BRICS-11 will be left behind. The picture is
more or less the opposite of conventional wisdom. Rather than seeing the rise
of the Global South as the West declines, we may see the West pull ahead again.
Asian tigers that cleave to the US will prosper. Those that cleave to China
will reap fewer gains.
China
will be in the middle of the pack at 19th place, leading in image recognition
and self-driving electric cars. It will struggle in other areas, hobbled by
top-down control and censorship, and by Xi’s habit of chopping down any tech
tycoon who threatens Communist Party control.
Taiwan window of opportunity
If
this is where the AI world is heading, Xi may be tempted to forestall it. His
window of opportunity for retaking Taiwan
will narrow as China’s workforce shrinks, old age dependency goes parabolic,
and the growth speed limit falls to 2.5 per cent.
A
seaborne assault on the island would be dangerous, but we do not know how
deeply the Taiwanese military is penetrated by Chinese sympathisers, or whether
the opposition Kuomintang has the stomach for a fight.
Xi
may never have another chance like today when the US military is stretched on
the twin fronts of Ukraine and the Middle East. Taiwan would deliver TSMC and
90 per cent of the world’s production of advanced chips, as well as the booty
of EUV lithography machines – if the Hsinchu Science Park survived the assault.
An
awkward thought in these tense times.
The Telegraph, UK
Here
is the link:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/america-takes-dead-aim-at-chinas-plan-for-global-ai-domination-20231018-p5ed3v.html
I strongly
suspect the rivalry discussed here is really much more important and consequential
that the hot war we are seeing between Israel and Hamas – horrible and lethal
though it is!
I find the story
of the different technologies and their scattering around the world fascinating
and quite instructive, seeing this contest as really future shaping!
The most obvious area where the chips matter in is imaging where I am sure many Nvidia chips are found!
Well worth a
read!
David.
Former Labor Party leader and Governor-General Bill Hayden has died, aged 90.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed the news via social media on Saturday afternoon.
“Bill Hayden was a humble man but there was nothing modest about his ambition for Labor or Australia,” Mr Albanese said.
“He brought a quiet strength to the cause of progress and through his lifetime of service, he changed our party and our country for the better.
“May he rest in peace.”
Mr Hayden served as a minister in both the Gough Whitlam and Bob Hawke governments.
He served as Leader of the Opposition from 1977 to 1983, before being succeeded by Bob Hawke, who led the ALP to victory at the 1983 election.
During the Hawke government, he served as the Minister for Foreign Affairs.
He was also previously Treasurer during the Whitlam government for a brief five-month period in 1975.
He also served as Whitlam’s Minister for Social Security.
He was born in Brisbane in 1933 and joined the Queensland Police Force in 1953, during which time he joined the ALP.
In 1961, he was elected as the Member for Oxley, which he held until 1988.
He served as Leader of the Opposition, following the 1977 election loss and Whitlam’s retirement.
Following the 1987 election, he took up the post of Governor-General and held the role until 1996.
Mr Albanese said a state funeral would be held to honour Mr Hayden.
The Prime Minister describe him as being instrumental in the introduction of Medicare and an important figure in ALP and Australian history.
More here:
https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/former-governor-general-bill-hayden-dies-aged-90/news-story/11c28e421486dad33e92863dff87118e
Wikipedia makes clear his central role:
“Medibank (1975–1976)
The Whitlam government, elected in 1972, sought to put an end to the three-tier system by extending healthcare coverage to the entire population.[22] Before the Labor Party came to office, Bill Hayden, the Minister for Social Security, took the main responsibility for developing the preliminary plans to establish a universal health scheme.
According to a speech to Parliament on 29 November 1973 by Mr Hayden, the purpose of Medibank was to establish the "most equitable and efficient means of providing health insurance coverage for all Australians."[23] “
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(Australia)
I have to say it is not many of us who have made such a fundamental change for our fellow citizens. These sorts of changes are not common, and few have such a huge and lasting impact.
David.