Quote Of The Year

Timeless Quotes - Sadly The Late Paul Shetler - "Its not Your Health Record it's a Government Record Of Your Health Information"

or

H. L. Mencken - "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."

Sunday, July 07, 2024

AusHealthIT Poll Number 754 – Results – 07 July 2024.

Here are the results of the poll.

Should Politicians Be Forced To Retire When They Reach An Advanced Age - Say 75 or 80?

Yes                                                                              26 (72%)

No                                                                                  9 (25%)

I Have No Idea                                                              1 (3%)

Total No. Of Votes: 36

A very clear cut vote suggesting we are at the mercy of at least one who is probably past it!

Any insights on the poll are welcome, as a comment, as usual!

A good voting turnout. 

1 of 36 who answered the poll admitted to not being sure about the answer to the question!

Again, many, many thanks to all those who voted, and Happy Birthday to my wonderful wife! 

David.

Friday, July 05, 2024

This Man Has Been A Seminal Contributor To The Development Of AI.

A really worthwhile interview with one of the ‘founders’ of AI

The Observer Artificial intelligence (AI)

Interview

AI scientist Ray Kurzweil: ‘We are going to expand intelligence a millionfold by 2045’

Zoƫ Corbyn

The Google futurist talks nanobots and avatars, deepfakes and elections – and why he is so optimistic about a future where we merge with computers

Sun 30 Jun 2024 01.00 AEST Last modified on Sun 30 Jun 2024 03.59 AEST

The American computer scientist and techno-optimist Ray Kurzweil is a long-serving authority on artificial intelligence (AI). His bestselling 2005 book, The Singularity Is Near, sparked imaginations with sci-fi like predictions that computers would reach human-level intelligence by 2029 and that we would merge with computers and become superhuman around 2045, which he called “the Singularity”. Now, nearly 20 years on, Kurzweil, 76, has a sequel, The Singularity Is Nearer – and some of his predictions no longer seem so wacky. Kurzweil’s day job is principal researcher and AI visionary at Google. He spoke to the Observer in his personal capacity as an author, inventor and futurist.

Why write this book?
The Singularity Is Near talked about the future, but 20 years ago, when people didn’t know what AI was. It was clear to me what would happen, but it wasn’t clear to everybody. Now AI is dominating the conversation. It is time to take a look again both at the progress we’ve made – large language models (LLMs) are quite delightful to use – and the coming breakthroughs.

Your 2029 and 2045 projections haven’t changed…

I have stayed consistent. So 2029, both for human-level intelligence and for artificial general intelligence (AGI) – which is a little bit different. Human-level intelligence generally means AI that has reached the ability of the most skilled humans in a particular domain and by 2029 that will be achieved in most respects. (There may be a few years of transition beyond 2029 where AI has not surpassed the top humans in a few key skills like writing Oscar-winning screenplays or generating deep new philosophical insights, though it will.) AGI means AI that can do everything that any human can do, but to a superior level. AGI sounds more difficult, but it’s coming at the same time. And my five-year-out estimate is actually conservative: Elon Musk recently said it is going to happen in two years.We do have to be aware of the potential here and monitor what AI is doing – but just being against it is not sensible

Why should we believe your dates?
I’m really the only person that predicted the tremendous AI interest that we’re seeing today. In 1999 people thought that would take a century or more. I said 30 years and look what we have. The most important driver is the exponential growth in the amount of computing power for the price in constant dollars. We are doubling price-performance every 15 months. LLMs just began to work two years ago because of the increase in computation.

What’s missing currently to bring AI to where you are predicting it will be in 2029?
One is more computing power – and that’s coming. That will enable improvements in contextual memory, common sense reasoning and social interaction, which are all areas where deficiencies remain. Then we need better algorithms and more data to answer more questions. LLM hallucinations [where they create nonsensical or inaccurate outputs] will become much less of a problem, certainly by 2029 – they already happen much less than they did two years ago. The issue occurs because they don’t have the answer, and they don’t know that. They look for the best thing, which might be wrong or not appropriate. As AI gets smarter, it will be able to understand its own knowledge more precisely and accurately report to humans when it doesn’t know.

What exactly is the Singularity?
Today, we have one brain size which we can’t go beyond to get smarter. But the cloud is getting smarter and it is growing really without bounds. The Singularity, which is a metaphor borrowed from physics, will occur when we merge our brain with the cloud. We’re going to be a combination of our natural intelligence and our cybernetic intelligence and it’s all going to be rolled into one. Making it possible will be brain-computer interfaces which ultimately will be nanobots – robots the size of molecules – that will go noninvasively into our brains through the capillaries. We are going to expand intelligence a millionfold by 2045 and it is going to deepen our awareness and consciousness.

It is hard to imagine what this would be like, but it doesn’t sound very appealing…

Think of it like having your phone, but in your brain. If you ask a question your brain will be able to go out to the cloud for an answer similar to the way you do on your phone now – only it will be instant, there won’t be any input or output issues, and you won’t realise it has been done (the answer will just appear). People do say “I don’t want that”: they thought they didn’t want phones either!

What of the existential risk of advanced AI systems – that they could gain unanticipated powers and seriously harm humanity? AI “godfather” Geoffrey Hinton left Google last year, in part because of such concerns, while other high-profile tech leaders such as Elon Musk have also issued warnings. Earlier this month, OpenAI and Google DeepMind workers called for greater protections for whistleblowers who raise safety concerns.
I have a chapter on perils. I’ve been involved with trying to find the best way to move forward and I helped to develop the Asilomar AI Principles [a 2017 non-legally binding set of guidelines for responsible AI development]. We do have to be aware of the potential here and monitor what AI is doing. But just being against it is not sensible: the advantages are so profound. All the major companies are putting more effort into making sure their systems are safe and align with human values than they are into creating new advances, which is positive.

Won’t there be physical limits to computing power that put the brakes on?
The computing that we have today is basically perfect: it will get better every year and continue in that realm. There are many ways we can continue to improve chips. We’ve only just begun to use the third dimension [create 3D chips], which will carry us for many years. I don’t see us needing quantum computing: we’ve never been able to demonstrate its value.

You argue that the Turing test, wherein an AI can communicate by text indistinguishably from a human, will be passed by 2029. But to pass it, AI will need to dumb down. How so?
Humans are not that accurate and they don’t know a lot of things! You can ask an LLM today very specifically about any theory in any field and it will answer you very intelligently. But who can possibly do that? If a human answered like that, you’d know it was a machine. So that’s the purpose of dumbing it down – because the test is trying to imitate a human. Some people are reporting that GPT-4 can pass a Turing test. I think we have a few more years until we settle this issue.

Not everyone is likely to be able to afford the technology of the future you envisage. Does technological inequality worry you?

Being wealthy allows you to afford these technologies at an early point, but also one where they don’t work very well. When [mobile] phones were new they were very expensive and also did a terrible job. They had access to very little information and didn’t talk to the cloud. Now they are very affordable and extremely useful. About three quarters of people in the world have one. So it’s going to be the same thing here: this issue goes away over time.

My first plan is to stay alive – reaching longevity escape velocity. I’m also intending to create a replicant of myself

The book looks in detail at AI’s job-killing potential. Should we be worried?
Yes, and no. Certain types of jobs will be automated and people will be affected. But new capabilities also create new jobs. A job like “social media influencer” didn’t make sense, even 10 years ago. Today we have more jobs than we’ve ever had and US average personal income per hours worked is 10 times what it was 100 years ago adjusted to today’s dollars. Universal basic income will start in the 2030s, which will help cushion the harms of job disruptions. It won’t be adequate at that point but over time it will become so.

There are other alarming ways, beyond job loss, that AI is promising to transform the world: spreading disinformation, causing harm through biased algorithms and supercharging surveillance. You don’t dwell much on those…
We do have to work through certain types of issues. We have an election coming and “deepfake” videos are a worry. I think we can actually figure out [what’s fake] but if it happens right before the election we won’t have time. On issues of bias, AI is learning from humans and humans have bias. We’re making progress but we’re not where we want to be. There are also issues around fair data use by AI that need to be sorted out via the legal process.

What do you do at Google and did the book go through any pre-publication review?
I advise them on different ways they can improve their products and advance their technology, including LLMs. The book is written in a personal capacity. Google is happy for me to publish these things and there was no review.

Many people will be sceptical of your predictions about physical and digital immortality. You anticipate medical nanobots arriving in the 2030s that will be able to enter our bodies and carry out repairs so we can remain alive indefinitely as well as “after life” technology coming in the 2040s that will allow us to upload our minds so they can be restored – even put into convincing androids – if we experience biological death.
Everything is progressing exponentially: not only computing power but our understanding of biology and our ability to engineer at far smaller scales. In the early 2030s we can expect to reach longevity escape velocity where every year of life we lose through ageing we get back from scientific progress. And as we move past that we’ll actually get back more years. It isn’t a solid guarantee of living for ever – there are still accidents – but your probability of dying won’t increase year to year. The capability to bring back departed humans digitally will bring up some interesting societal and legal questions.

What is your own plan for immortality?

My first plan is to stay alive, therefore reaching longevity escape velocity. I take about 80 pills a day to help keep me healthy. Cryogenic freezing is the fallback. I’m also intending to create a replicant of myself [an afterlife AI avatar], which is an option I think we’ll all have in the late 2020s. I did something like that with my father, collecting everything that he had written in his life, and it was a little bit like talking to him. [My replicant] will be able to draw on more material and so represent my personality more faithfully.

What should we be doing now to best prepare for the future?

It is not going to be us versus AI: AI is going inside ourselves. It will allow us to create new things that weren’t feasible before. It’ll be a pretty fantastic future.

The Singularity Is Nearer by Ray Kurzweil is published by Vintage (£25). To support the Guardian and Observer order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply

Here is the link:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jun/29/ray-kurzweil-google-ai-the-singularity-is-nearer

Nice to read such an optimistic view of where we are heading?

I agree it is important to recognize the importance of ‘staying alive’ if any interesting future is to be experienced

I hope he is right that we can only do better from here but I must admit to a level of uncertainty!

David.

Thursday, July 04, 2024

I Am Glad We Are Not Faced With A Choice Between A Crook And A Probable Dementia Sufferer For Our Leader!

This appeared last week:

Joe Biden crashed in first clash with Donald Trump - and other takeaways from the debate

John McCormick and Catherine Lucey

Wednesday, July 03, 2024

I Have To Say I Am Very Grateful To Have Had Our Legal System Stay Largely Away From Abortion Rights

This appeared a few days ago:

Supreme Court allows emergency abortions in Idaho but leaves big questions unresolved

Laura Kusisto

Tuesday, July 02, 2024

Yet Again We Are Reminded To Stay Alert In The Health Sector!

 This reminder to stay alert to ‘evil-doer’ attacks appeared a day or so ago!

Cyber protection boosted in critical healthcare sector

Tom McIlroy Political correspondent

Australia’s healthcare sector will get increased cyber protection under an Albanese government plan to establish a new intelligence centre, using a model already in place in the banking and finance industry.

The Information Sharing and Analysis Centre (ISAC) is part of an effort to upgrade the country’s cyber safeguards at a system level, especially across high-risk industries. Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil announced $6.4 million in pilot funding this week.

The ISAC will host a platform for high-speed sharing of threat information. It will connect big businesses, non-profits and government organisations working in health and hospitals, speeding up indicators of cyber compromise, and spread information about successful responses and preventative measures for cybercrime.

Intelligence agency the Australian Signals Directorate hosts a national system which can feed information into the ISAC when appropriate.

Ms O’Neil said government intervention to kick-start the model for high-risk sectors was long overdue.

“Healthcare providers tend to hold highly sensitive data, and they often struggle with building and funding strong cyber protections. That’s why healthcare providers are one of the most common, and most damaging, targets of cyberattack. This is a pattern we see all over the world.”

Health care networks in Australia and overseas are clearly in the sights of hackers, with some in Ireland, North America and Europe already falling victim to debilitating attacks.

“Make no mistake – we expect Australian healthcare providers to step up and protect our citizens wherever possible. But government, too, needs to give them a hand,” Ms O’Neil said.

Labor could look to extend the model to other critical sectors in the future, include energy and water systems.

Michelle Fitzgerald, the chief digital officer at St Vincent’s Health Australia, said the industry had approached the government about boosting protections.

“There’s a lot of focus on the data but in the case of healthcare, we’re also working with patients every single day. So it’s an additional dynamic and brings additional risk.

“We need to co-operate and share knowledge because we’re up working against a very sophisticated global sector.”

In December, St Vincent’s Health revealed it had sustained a major cyberattack, losing data to cybercriminals who gained access through a compromised account.

The breach was considered similar to the one that crippled insurer Medibank almost a year earlier.

St Vincent’s operates hospitals across NSW, Victoria and Queensland, including three public and 10 private hospitals and more than 25 aged care facilities. The company employs nearly 30,000 people nationally.

Applications for the federal government’s grant round are open until late July.

Here is the link:

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/cyber-protection-boosted-in-critical-healthcare-sector-20240627-p5jpbb

Good to see the Government has recognized that the health sector is one that requires special help and is putting its money where its mouth is!

These issues are a wake up call to everyone in the sector!

David.

Sunday, June 30, 2024

I Had Not Realised That Voluntary Assisted Dying Had Become So Common.

This appeared a few days ago:

Health

More than 130 patients in NSW died through voluntary assisted dying in program’s first three months

Between the state legalising VAD in November 2023 and February 2024, 517 patients made requests to access it, official report shows

Mostafa Rachwani

Fri 28 Jun 2024 16.38 AEST Last modified on Fri 28 Jun 2024 16.40 AEST

More than 130 patients have died through New South Wales’s voluntary assisted dying program in the first three months since it was legalised.

NSW became the last state in Australia to legalise voluntary assisted dying when new legislation came into effect in November.

Between November 2023 and February 2024, 517 patients have made requests to access voluntary assisted dying and, of those, 131 completed the process.

An interim report from the NSW Voluntary Assisted Dying Board showed that in the three-month reporting period, 408 patients completed a first assessment.

Of those people, 321 completed the next step, a consulting assessment, and of those, 248 made a substance authorisation application.

Of those who died following the process, 30% self-administered the voluntary assisted dying substance.

The report also showed that of those who completed the first assessment, a majority were over the age of 60.

It said 2.5% came from Indigenous communities, while 65% lived in regional NSW.

Prof Jenni Millbank, the NSW Voluntary Assisted Dying Board chair, wrote in the report that many patients apply to receive substance authority from the board, but never use it.

“We know from the experience in other states as well as our first few months of operations that some people who receive a substance authority from the board may ultimately choose not to take the substance,” she wrote.

“Knowing the substance is available to them gives these people the power of choice, and may provide a degree of relief and comfort in their final days and weeks.”

The report showed that of the 246 patients who made successful applications for substance authorisation, 115 did not use it, while 29 died from other causes during the reporting period.

Millbank said the board meets twice weekly in person to assess applications and they are sometimes forced to meet more often in urgent cases.

“The board undertakes a high volume of work associated with its decision-making functions,” she wrote.

“We are also often required to make decisions at short notice or in urgent circumstances outside of our regular meeting schedule. This is to ensure that eligible people who are at end of life or at risk of losing decision making capacity who have applied for voluntary assisted dying are supported to access it.”

The NSW government passed voluntary assisted dying legislation in May 2022 after a marathon debate and six months after the bill passed the lower house.

The bill was spearheaded by the independent MP Alex Greenwich and limits access to voluntary assisted dying to people with terminal illnesses who will die within six months or 12 months in the case of a person with a neurodegenerative condition experiencing unbearable suffering.

The person must be found to have capacity to make the decision to go ahead voluntarily without duress and the application would be assessed by two medical practitioners.

Patients can choose whether they want to take the medication themselves orally or for it to be injected by a doctor.

Here is the link:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/28/nsw-voluntary-assisted-dying-laws-statistics-report

Clearly this is an important reform for those who need to take advantage of the freedom to decide your fate for yourself when faced with such difficult circumstances.

For myself I am certainly happy the freedom now exists in NSW, but I hope I do not ever need to take advantage of it!

Well done to the NSW Government for giving us all the right to make up our own minds on this crucial and existential matter…

David.

AusHealthIT Poll Number 753 – Results – 30 June 2024.

Here are the results of the poll.

Should Social Media Carry Cigarette-Like Mental Health Warnings?

Yes                                                                                13 (50 %)

No                                                                                 11 (42 %)

I Have No Idea                                                              2 (8%)

Total No. Of Votes: 26

A mixed vote but seemingly of little interest considering the vote count! People seem comfortable to have social media just roll on….

Any insights on the poll are welcome, as a comment, as usual!

A poor voting turnout. 

2 of 26 who answered the poll admitted to not being sure about the answer to the question!

Again, many, many thanks to all those who voted! 

David.

Friday, June 28, 2024

I Really Hope They Avoid Any Damage While Working Out How To Read These Scrolls!

This appeared a day or so ago

Inside the library of Vesuvius’s secret scrolls

By Tom Kington

The Times

11:07PM June 22, 2024

The three rooms in a Naples library that hold secrets about the origins of Western civilisation are deceptively simple, lined with wood and grey metal cabinets and smelling of old books.

Opening the door of a cabinet, Giovanni Bova slowly pulls out a drawer to check on nine black carbonised lumps of papyrus scroll resting on translucent Japanese paper and cotton wool.

“The scrolls are safe, barring earthquakes bringing down the ceiling,” said Bova, the head of the collection.

Burnt and buried by the massive eruption of Mount Vesuvius in AD79, the scorched scrolls are part of a library dug up during excavations of a wealthy villa at Herculaneum, Pompeii’s smaller neighbour, in 1752.

Stored at the National Library of Naples since the 1920s and believed to be the world’s only surviving ancient Roman library, the scrolls are making headlines as high-powered CT scans and artificial intelligence are successfully used to decipher them for the first time without unrolling them.

Until now, efforts to unroll the scrolls have mostly produced shredded, crumbling fragments, so historians are drooling at the possibility that AI can find unknown, intact works by Sophocles, Sappho or Aristotle, revolutionising our knowledge of the genesis of western art, science and philosophy.

It is a prospect that makes the hushed, book-lined home of the scrolls a surreal contrast to the explosive works they may contain.

During a visit this month, The Times was escorted through the labyrinthine, frescoed corridors of the library, which is housed in the 18th-century former royal palace in the heart of the city.

Up sweeping staircases, past sleepy students studying the library’s thousands of works and balconies offering stunning views over the bay of Naples, the scrolls are tucked away in three marble floored rooms where six-metre-high ceilings and the solid palace walls keep out the summer heat.

Without climate-controlled, locked vaults, Bova leads a team guarding wooden cabinets installed in the 1920s that hold about 500 still rolled scrolls and metal cabinets containing 1840 fragments left over from attempts to unroll another 300.

In the corner of one room stands the machine invented by a priest in the 18th century that used hooks to slowly unroll them, often destroying them in the process.

“You can still see the membrane from animal guts they used to try and keep the papyrus from disintegrating as it unrolled,” Bova said.

Occasionally it worked. A cabinet in holds an intact, four-metre stretch of unrolled papyrus containing ruminations on rhetoric by Philodemus, the epicurean philosopher who created the library while he was living at the villa of the Roman aristocrat Lucius Calpurnius Piso at Herculaneum.

But the cabinets are also packed with shelves containing torn and crumbling fragments, among them a poorly preserved work with geometric triangle designs by Demetrius of Laconia, a 2nd-century BC Greek epicurean philosopher.

While most works are in Greek, 80 fragments are in Latin, including a description by Seneca the Elder of the 31BC Battle of Actium between the forces of Octavian and Cleopatra. “This could be part of Seneca’s lost history of Rome and the rest may be in there somewhere,” Bova said, waving at the cabinets.

Down the corridor an infra-red microscope set up Graziano Ranocchia, of Pisa University, is used to glean new words from fragments of Demetrius’s treatise On the Shape of God.

Using the technique infrared hyperspectral imaging, Ranocchia has this year boosted the legibility of fragments to discover the exact burial spot of Plato in Athens.

But the headline-grabbing breakthrough last year was the use of a CT (computed tomography) scanner in Oxfordshire by a Kentucky University computer scientist, Brent Seales, to peer inside an untouched, 13-metre long rolled scroll.

He obtained data which was unscrambled this year using AI by researchers who earned a $US700,000 ($1.05m) prize funded by Silicon Valley investors. They discovered 15 columns of text by Philodemus in which he ponders what makes something desirable, writing: “We do not immediately believe things that are scarce to be absolutely more pleasant.”

The text came from one of two scrolls Seales obtained from Paris, where they had been kept since they were sent to Napoleon in 1802 by the then Bourbon ruler of Naples.

To keep the discoveries coming, Bova flew to the UK in October with three never-unrolled scrolls from the cabinets. “We 3D-printed cases that fit exactly, booked two tickets and they travelled on the plane on the seat next to me, never leaving my sight,” he said.

Competitors are now trying to crack the data from the scans of the three new scrolls as well as from the second, unstudied scroll from Paris.

Like last year, the initial prize will be for the AI expert who can decipher one word, followed by another prize for finding entire tracts.

“There are 4000-5000 people working on this and we are very close to getting a word,” said Seales, who was in Naples this week to meet the director of the library, Silvia Sciponi.

“I have been watching the interior of a scroll emerge from the mist – it’s imminent. Once you see a word, you are 90 per cent there, it’s like the rollercoaster is over the top and rushing down,” added Seales, who hopes to scan all 500 intact scrolls in Naples and has $US2 million in funding from Elon Musk, making the Tesla and Twitter/X tycoon the project’s biggest backer.

While historians around the world are on tenterhooks to know if Philodemus’s library will reveal lost Greek tragedies and never-read ruminations by the founders of western philosophy, Seales said he was hoping for something about the early years of Christianity.

Sciponi said: “The huge responsibility we have looking after the scrolls is matched by our curiosity as technology now gives us back works we thought were lost. We also need to consider protecting them better from volcanic dust because Vesuvius may erupt again.” BURIED TREASURES

AD79

The eruption of Mount Vesuvius buries Pompeii in pumice stones and ash, and engulfs Herculaneum in super-heated, boiling mud that instantly seals scrolls kept in the library of a wealthy family’s villa, carbonising them but keeping out the oxygen that would have allowed them to burn completely.

1752

Workmen hired by the Bourbon rulers of Naples discover what is today (Saturday) known as the Villa of the Papyri.

1756


Antonio Piaggio, a Vatican priest, uses a machine equipped with hooks and silk thread to slowly unroll scrolls, a few millimetres a day, inadvertently damaging many of them.

1802

King Ferdinand IV of Naples gives six rolls to Napoleon, which are taken to France.

1810

Eighteen scrolls are given to the future George IV. The king gives four to the University of Oxford’s Bodleian Library. The others are in the British Library.

2023

The Silicon Valley investors Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross join Brent Seales, a computer scientist, to launch the Vesuvius Challenge, awarding more than $US1 million over the year to competitors deciphering data from scans of scrolls.

Here is the link:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/inside-the-library-of-vesuviuss-secret-scrolls/news-story/d02ab9aa3ef5fc47eab21b1ada36dcee

Can I say I am drooling too to see what is eventually revealed as the scrolls are hopefully read!

David.