A Good Reminder Of Just What Matters In Preserving Health!

This appeared last week.

Bernard Salt

Think the internet changed Australia? How about sewerage.

12:00AM August 10, 2024

The Weekend Australian Magazine

It is a topic that surfaces at centenary celebrations, workplace farewells and, poignantly, eulogies too. It is the idea of looking back and remarking upon how much Australia has changed over the decades.

Making do without access to modern technology (mail versus email), the formality of everyday dress (hats and gloves) and the stiffness of interpersonal protocols (Messrs and Mesdames) are popular observations. So too is the overarching belief that all this change places us, today’s Australians, at a unique time in history. And that we, the players, are dealing with pressures that did not exist decades ago.

There is some merit to this way of thinking. Previous generations disconnected from work when they left the workplace. This is less so today with access to smartphone technology.

However, the question isn’t so much “How have things changed?” The question should be reframed: how has Australia changed in the past 60 years (1964-2024) as compared with the previous 60 years (1904-1964)?

It’s fair to say that we the people of the 2020s have had to manage an avalanche of change over six decades. There’s the rise of China, the empowerment of women, the invention of the internet, the use of mobile phones, the emergence of diversity, equity and inclusion, and recognition of the marginalised.

Nevertheless, those still alive in 1964 (and born in the 1890s or earlier) recalling events of the previous 60 years could equally lay claim to have lived through an era of profound change.

Let’s start with the impact of Australia losing 60,000 men in World War I and then having to navigate the Spanish flu epidemic. These events were followed by the broader use of electricity, the popularisation of cars, the greater use of the telephone, and the idea of working in a city factory as opposed to being “in service” on a country estate. Toss in the Great Depression, World War II and the atomic bomb, and then finish this era of profound change with a baby boom to express our unbridled confidence in Australia’s future.

In the previous 60 years (1844-1904), the Australian colonies unified to become a commonwealth. Australia was then, and still is today, the only continent to be claimed by a single nation. The idea of federation (of a continent) was bold thinking for the time. This was an era of wealth generation delivered by gold, wool, wheat and export of refrigerated meat. It was a time when our biggest cities were sewered, ultimately delivering longer lifespans and a better quality of life. (Arguably, the advent of sewerage did more for average Aussies than the invention of the internet.)

So, yes, the development of the smartphone and DEI and being able to order Thai food and have it delivered by Uber Eats is a world away from the privations and the triumphs of any previous 60-year era.

The more interesting question is what Australia might look like 60 years hence, in 2084. This future era will be shaped by exiting baby boomers, by the impact of trading blocs, and by the clarification of Australia’s role as a food producer, resources provider and safe harbour for civic-minded people wanting a better life for their kids.

We should aim for this future Australia to always be a place of peace and opportunity.

Here is the link:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine/think-the-internet-changed-australia-how-about-sewerage/news-story/6756b92cb843b5762358c3239b7f0a3a

I reckon this is a thoughtful piece that does preserve a longer perspective that can be easily lost. I am probably just a few years older than the author but I find the perspective true and valid.

Amazingly my parents memories go back all the way to the early 1900’s and my grandparents actually lived and could just remember, and tell me about, the end of the 1800s! Good generational timing I suppose.

The point of all this is to remind us all of the debt we owe to public health initiatives – now over a century old – that have so helped longevity and quality of life! These measures really matter as you can see each time they break down in war, famine etc.

It really helps to keep perspective to consider what steps have made the most difference to all our lives!

David.

We Sure Have Seen Fear Return To Markets In The Last Week – Should We Be Concerned?

This popped up late last week:

‘Don’t be terrified’: experts call for calm after a wild week on global markets

Glenda Korporaal

7:38PM August 09, 2024.

The Australian Business Network

Bell Potter veteran stockbroker Richard Coppelson was having to reassure some nervous clients this week.

“Corrections are just a normal part of the market,” he wrote in his daily newsletter.

“Don’t be terrified each time one hits. While the sell-off has worried many and it looks ­chaotic, the truth is that it is a sign of a healthy market. You should expect two or three 5 per cent corrections and one 10 per cent correction every year.”

“Coppo” was writing after a volatile start to the week, which saw the Australian market lose ­almost 6 per cent over two days (Friday, August 2 and Monday, August 5), wiping almost $160bn from its value in its largest two-day fall since the pandemic in March 2020.

Days before, he had summarised Monday’s market in more bearish terms, describing it as the “worst day since the pandemic” with the markets “smashed on US recession fears”.

“US futures smashed, Asian markets and cryptos whacked, US market under siege,” he wrote.

“Sahm rule (predicting a US recession) triggered,” he said, warning that “US corporate insiders are dumping stock at the fastest rate in more than a decade”.

While the Australian markets stabilised later in the week, one player described the market as having conflicting views, with some seeing global sharemarkets having an overdue correction after some major gains, while ­others were more worried about the outlook. “People are nervous,” one executive with a global executive bank said. But at the same time, he pointed out, there were plenty of cashed-up Australian investors looking to buy on the dip.

“We have been expecting the market volatility for a while,” Ord Minnett chief executive Karl Morris said. “This has been the hardest market I have ever seen because there are so many things happening at the same time – from elections to the political risks and wars.”

While some of these could have prompted a market “meltdown”, he said the past year had seen a “melt up” where prices had continued to rise, particularly tech stocks.

“We have been surprised how strong the markets have been. People have been expecting this (market volatility) for a while.”

But he said investors in Australia were now considering whether they should “buy on the dip” or wait longer to see if shares fall further. Trading volumes had been up on Friday and Monday as the ASX fell, Mr Morris noted.

He said there had been overoptimism in the US market about the earnings prospects from artificial intelligence, which had boosted the prices of tech stocks.

“The only people who are making money out of it are the chip manufacturers and people selling the dream. A bit of reality is setting in,” he said.

Mr Morris said the Australian market had “settled down” towards the end of the week with trading volumes coming down to more normal levels. But he said he was still expecting “volatility” on world markets would continue.

“We don’t see this as being the end of volatility, especially when markets around the world are pretty fully priced. Valuations in some parts of the market are still extremely high.”

The Australian market was “still substantially above where we were a year ago”, Mr Morris said. “There have been a lot of reasons where, normally, markets would pull back, but they haven’t. They have just kept going up.”

He said there were also concerns in the US whether the US Federal Reserve had been too slow to cut interest rates and could push the US economy into recession. But there was “no real panic from any of our clients”.

Matthew Haupt, a lead portfolio manager with Wilson Asset Management, said the sell off in the Japanese and Asian markets on Monday, with the Japanese market down by more than 12 per cent – its biggest one day fall since 1987 – was “historic”.

“It was pretty intense,” he said.

Mr Haupt said the fall on Monday in Japan had been sparked by weak US jobs data on Friday night which triggered concerns about whether there could be a recession in the US.

He said the prospect of lower US rates and higher rates in Japan had prompted a “deleveraging” by investors who had borrowed cheaply in Japan to invest for higher returns offshore.

Weaker than expected economic data from the US and a tightening of Japanese monetary policy began to change the investment equation.

“The yields in America fell, which made the yen rally, which meant all the carry trades had to be closed,” he said. “These deleveraging events are quite quick but painful.”

He said the past few days had seen “a bit of normalcy come back into the market” but he said nervousness and the prospect of further unwinding of the carry trade “mean it is still bubbling away”.

“We are probably half way through the deleveraging (process) but there is still more to go.”

Mr Haupt said next week would see more focus on local factors as the annual results of companies started to come out.

“We are watching earnings season in Australia now. The results are starting to trickle in now. But the level of uncertainty is still high because of the deleveraging and the uncertainty about the US economy. Markets don’t like uncertainty and we got a real dose of uncertainty this week.”

A bank holiday in NSW last Monday would have normally been expected to have been a quiet day trading day.

But the Australia market had already begun its fall on Friday on concerns about a fall in US tech stocks. Concerns that the share price of companies like Nvidia had overshot were exacerbated by the announcement last week that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had sold more than half its holdings of Apple shares.

The unexpectedly strong increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan on July 31 and rhetoric that the central bank was looking at more tightening of monetary policy was also causing problems in global markets as investors who had borrowed cheap Japanese currency to invest in the US and other markets, were forced to unwind some of their positions.

At around midnight on Friday last week the US payrolls data also indicated that the US economy was weaker than expected. The figures sent Wall Street down with talk that the figures had triggered the Sahm indicator of a recession. When traders in Australia came to work on Monday for their pre-market meetings they were expecting a bad day.

What caught them by surprise was the rout in the Japanese market which plunged by 12.4 per cent, the biggest one-day fall since 1987 stock market crash, on concerns about the Bank of Japan raising rates.

Investors were also selling out of Japanese bond and equities as “the carry trade” – which had allowed investors to borrow ­cheaply in Japan to invest offshore – began to unwind.

The Australian market had had the roughest two days since 2020, but the drop was nowhere near the big market falls of March 2020 amid fears of the implications of the Covid pandemic.

There were big fears in Australia of another fall on Wall Street on Monday night, but nerves calmed on Tuesday when it didn’t happen. By Tuesday afternoon the focus in the Australian market was back home, with the statement from the Reserve Bank that it was keeping rates on hold and news from the press conference that rates were not coming down any time soon.

There was welcome news on Wednesday from the Bank of Japan that it was backing off its plans to further hike interest rates, aware of the disturbing impact that its rate rise of the week before had had on global markets.

But when Australian traders came into work on Thursday there was bad news from the US that a 10-year US Treasury auction had not gone as well as expected. US investment banks were raising the prospects of a recession, with JP Morgan declaring that there was a 35 per cent chance that the US economy would fall into a recession by the end of the year – up from 25 per cent at the beginning of the year.

Close attention is now being given to intra-day movements as investors are trying to get a clear sense of direction in markets.

“We need these intra-day movements to settle down so we can get a clear sense of direction,” said one market participant.

“People are moving their money out of these high-growth plays into ultra-defensive areas – market staples.”

Rob Nash, ASX’s head of equities relationship management, said the market falls of Friday and Monday were nowhere near as steep as those in March 2020.

He said Monday had seen a total of almost $11bn in shares traded across the two exchanges, which was above more normal days of around $7bn to $8bn. But the “bounce” in the market on following days had seen volumes go back to normal.

The Australian share market had not rallied as much as those in the US and Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea over recent months as it did not have the same exposure to technology stocks. This was giving the Australian market more of a buffer as tech stocks in other markets fell. “The markets which had a heavy exposure to tech, including the Asian markets, rallied the most on the way up,” Mr Nash said.

Here is the link:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/dont-be-terrified-experts-call-for-calm-after-a-wild-week-on-global-markets/news-story/8e1b98fe815529e200b672f0b9f0cd0f

It has been a big week on the markets last week – and given how many of us have Super invested in the self same market the losses have been a bit harrowing for many.

We have had all sorts of breathless, alarmist headlines but in the vast majority of cases we know the best thing to do is just let the hubbub pass and see where we are in a month or two – as it is more than likely the fuss will have passed and we will all be back to normal.

FWIW I can assure you it is pretty much certain that the markets and all our portfolios / super will be back to normal in a month or two and importantly the health system will have trundled on doing all the good things it does quite undisturbed!

The point is that the market is not the real world for most and that while interesting it is only in the most exceptional of circumstances should we be really concerned!

My rule is that I will worry when Alan Kohler on the ABC news tells me to – and before that I will remain calm and relaxed!

The lesson is to only worry about what you can change / improve and ignore the ‘noise’ – and more importantly only sell or buy when your adviser tells you to!! Unless you are a real expert the best thing is to take the advice of the real experts!

In broad terms the same goes for how you treat your health!

David.

AusHealthIT Poll Number 759 – Results – 11 August 2024.

Here are the results of the poll.

Do You Think The Overall Impact Of AI Has Been Over-Hyped?

Yes                                                                                 21 (62%)

No                                                                                 13 (38%)

I Have No Idea                                                               0 (0%)

Total No. Of Votes: 34

A pretty clear cut vote suggesting we may just be a little ahead of ourselves on the impact of AI.

Any insights on the poll are welcome, as a comment, as usual!

A fair voting turnout. 

0 of 34 who answered the poll admitted to not being sure about the answer to the question!

Again, many, many thanks to all those who voted! 

David.

This Tool May Be Useful For Some To Help Advise Their Patients.

This appeared last week:

COVID-19 Risk Calculator expanded

GPs can now use the tool to undertake a personalised assessment for patients’ risk of developing long COVID-19 six months after infection.

Michelle Wisbey

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01 Aug 2024

Globally, at least 65 million people are thought to suffer from long COVID-19.

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Healthcare professionals are set to be aided in their assessments of long COVID-19 after a popular risk calculator was updated to include the condition.
 
The online COVID-19 Risk Calculator’s (CoRiCal) expansion was announced on Thursday and now includes a personalised risk assessment of developing long COVID-19 six months after infection.
 
The calculator takes into account a range of personal factors including age, sex, comorbidities, vaccination status, number of previous infections and use of antiviral medications.
 
CoRiCal was developed early in the pandemic to provide clinicians, and patients, with a shared decision-making tool to help determine the possible risks and benefits of having a COVID-19 vaccine and booster.
 
In its latest update, the long COVID-19 calculator was specifically designed to assess the risks of going to hospital or an intensive care unit with the condition, and of having it six months after catching COVID-19.
 
And the impact of living with long COVID-19 is something Kylie Trounson knows all too well.
 
A busy Melbourne lawyer, Ms Trounson was struck down with the illness more than two years ago and its impacts continue to be devastating.
 
‘I started having really extreme symptoms that I couldn’t explain – I woke up in the middle of the night with my heart racing, I had a heart monitor, and it was at 190 beats per minute while I was lying down,’ she told newsGP.
 
‘I had a such a severe form of it that I lost my identity, so I wasn’t a mum, I wasn’t a lawyer, I wasn’t a partner, I wasn’t a daughter, I was just someone who could lie in bed.
 
‘My GP was my anchor at that point … now that most of the long COVID clinics are not available, the importance of GPs is huge.’
 
The project’s co-lead, and former RACGP Expert Committee – Quality Care Deputy Chair, Associate Professor John Litt said the expanded tool will help GPs to introduce earlier interventions to mitigate the disease’s severity and duration.
 
‘While the median duration is about four months or so, that means 50% of people will have symptoms for longer than four months,’ he told newsGP.
 
‘The GP feedback is it’s even quite complex for them to understand and their time is really precious.
 
‘What we’ve done with this one is we’ve actually brought in the comorbidities, and there are quite a few comorbidities that increase the risk of the severity of COVID, and they increase your risk of long COVID.’
 
University of Queensland Associate Professor Kirsty Short said at least 65 million people globally are thought to suffer from long COVID-19, which can cause more than 200 symptoms across 10 different organ systems.
 
‘Incomplete vaccination, missed drug treatment during acute infection, and repeat infections are the greatest controllable influencers that increase risk, so there are actions you can take right now to reduce that,’ she said.
 
‘Health managers and individuals in conjunction with clinicians can use the risk assessment tool for shared decision making on vaccination, infection-avoidant behaviours and pursuing early treatment during acute infection.’
 
Associate Professor Litt said while many adults do not see COVID as a big issue, many remain concerned about getting long COVID.
 
‘The chance of suffering long COVID increases with every bout of COVID-19 a person catches,’ he said.
 
‘The vaccines are continuing to provide benefit, but it’d be great if they provided a longer-term benefit against getting infected or passing it on to people who are vulnerable.
 
‘Clearly vaccination has largely been the primary cause which has led to a substantive reduction in long COVID, so that’s the good news, the bad news is we don’t have a definitive treatment.’
 
The tool was designed by a team of experts from Flinders University, the Queensland University of Technology, the University of Sydney and the Immunisation Coalition, and included input from GPs and clinicians.

Here is the link:

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/covid-19-risk-calculator-expanded

This may be useful to know about to ask your GP for an assessment if you are concerned!

David.

Is This Report Just The Same Old, Same Old? Looks like Bureaucracy Squared To Me!

 This appeared last week:

Council for Connected Care inaugural review report released

Friday, 02 August, 2024

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The Australian Digital Health Agency (ADHA) has welcomed the inaugural annual report of the Council for Connected Care.

The council is a multi-stakeholder advisory group that provides strategic guidance and direction on how to improve health outcomes for Australians through a more interoperable digital health system.

ADHA CEO Amanda Cattermole PSM said, “The Council for Connected Care has been a catalyst for change and a champion for healthcare interoperability. It has brought together an outstanding group of leaders who share a common vision of a more connected and integrated healthcare system.

“All Australians expect a healthcare system where information is shared safely, securely and seamlessly with the right people at the right time to deliver the best clinical outcomes.”

The ADHA said that the Council for Connected Care Annual Review shows progress has been made in advancing the interoperability agenda, with collaboration and knowledge building resources shared centrally on the agency’s website, including:

• National Healthcare Identifiers Roadmap 2023–2028 to increase the adoption and use of healthcare identifiers in health and care settings.
• Digital Health Standards Catalogue, a comprehensive resource that provides a single point of access for relevant standards in digital health.
• Conformance framework to ensure digital health products and systems are operated in a manner that aligns with safety, security and interoperability standards.
• Draft procurement guidelines to provide guidance to healthcare organisations seeking to purchase digital health solutions and harmonise interoperability requirements in ICT procurement.
• Drafting national Health Information Exchange architecture in consultation with jurisdictions and key stakeholders.
• Supporting the adoption and implementation of national interoperability standards, such as FHIR and SNOMED CT, through education, training and testing resources.
   

Council Chairperson Conjoint Professor Anne Duggan said having a more connected healthcare system was an important pillar of consumer safety and puts Australians firmly at the centre of their care.

“It has been a privilege to work with senior leaders across the healthcare system, united by the common purpose of realising fully optimised and interoperable digital health records, which remain foundational to safe and high-quality care.”

The council was established in June 2023 as part of the Connecting Australian Healthcare – National Healthcare Interoperability Plan 2023–2028, which was auspiced by all governments to significantly reduce fragmentation and increase information sharing across the healthcare system.

Here is the link:

https://www.hospitalhealth.com.au/content/technology/news/council-for-connected-care-inaugural-review-report-released-709203735

This is a new grouping for me so I had a look:

Council for Connected Care

Providing strategic advice on interoperability and supporting the implementation of the National Healthcare Interoperability Plan.

Contact us

Phone: 1300 901 001 
8am - 5pm (AEST/AEDT) Monday - Friday 
Email:  help@digitalhealth.gov.au

Role of Council

The Council for Connected Care will:

• identify opportunities to accelerate interoperability in various parts of the health system and ways to harness these opportunities
• facilitate and support the implementation of the Connecting Australian Healthcare – National Healthcare Interoperability Plan 2023-2028
• promote and garner support for digital health initiatives that drive connected healthcare
• identify barriers to achieving interoperability and ways to overcome them.

Here is the link:

https://www.digitalhealth.gov.au/healthcare-providers/initiatives-and-programs/interoperability/council-for-connected-care

There are 33 members of the council, and they have held six meetings to date.

Here are the members:

Conjoint Professor Anne Duggan (Chairperson)	Chief Executive Officer	Australian Commission on Safety & Quality in Health Care
Professor Peter Sprivulis (Deputy Chairperson)	Chief Clinical Information Officer	WA Health
Dr Jason Agostino	Senior Medical Advisor	National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation
Mr Simon Bush	Chief Executive Officer	Australian Information Industry Association
Ms Annie Butler	Federal Secretary	Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation
Ms Amanda Cattermole PSM	Chief Executive Officer	Australian Digital Health Agency
Professor Wendy Chapman	Associate Dean of Digital Health and Informatics	University of Melbourne
Mr Simon Cleverley	Assistant Secretary	Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care
Dr Elizabeth Deveny	Chief Executive Officer	Consumer Health Forum
Ms Kirsty Faichney	Deputy Chief Executive Officer	Services Australia
Mr Michael Frost	Group Head, Primary Healthcare, Information Standards & Communications Group	Australian Institute of Health & Welfare
Ms Mary Ann Baquero Geronimo	Chief Executive Officer	Federation of Ethnic Communities' Councils of Australia
Dr David Hansen	Chief Executive Officer	Australian e-Health Research Centre, CSIRO
Dr Rob Hosking	Chair Expert Committee on Practice Technology and Management	Royal Australian College of General Practitioners
Ms Emma Hossack	Chief Executive Officer	Medical Software Industry Association
Dr John Lambert	Chief Clinical Information Officer	NT Health
Mr Chris Leahy	Chief Operating Officer	Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care
Ms Laurie Leigh	Chief Executive Officer	National Disability Services
Mr Keith McDonald	Chief Executive Officer	South Western Sydney, Primary Health Network
Ms Bettina McMahon	Chief Executive Officer	Healthdirect
Dr Danielle McMullen	Vice President	Australian Medical Association
Adjunct Associate Professor Steven Morris	Chief Executive Officer	Pharmaceutical Society of Australia
Ms Anja Nikolic	Chief Executive Officer	Australasian Institute of Digital Health
Ms Jackie O’Connor	Policy Lead	Allied Health Professions Association
Mr Peter O’Halloran	Chief Digital Officer	Australian Digital Health Agency
Dr Christopher Pearce	Chair Digital Health Committee	Australian College of Rural and Remote Medicine
Mr Michael Roff	Chief Executive Officer	Australian Private Hospitals Association
Mr Richard Skimin	Corporate Member Representative	Australian Patients Association
Adj. Professor Ruth Stewart	National Rural Health Commissioner
Mr Tom Symondson	Chief Executive Officer	Aged & Community Care Providers Association
Ms Lisa Todd	Economics, PBS and Data Director	Pharmacy Guild of Australia
Mr Mark Upton	Director, Strategy, Information Management and Governance Office	Tasmanian Department of Health
Professor Trish Williams	Digital Health Expert	Flinders University

We have a meeting on August 8 – so if you wish to raise a matter contact one of those listed above.

It is very hard to tell just what this august membership has delivered for the Australian people.

Perhaps we could have an email – explaining in a page or so – the value that has been added and the difference that has been made? I would love to publish such a summary!

What do you think this Council will deliver other than attendance fees for the members?

David.

It Seems Concerns About Our Health System Are Rising. Are They Justified?

This appeared last week:

Health system ‘at crisis tipping point’

Natasha Robinson

1 August, 2024

Australia’s health system is at a tipping point, with patients unable to afford basic care, hospitals critically overloaded, and a tide of chronic disease threatening to overwhelm all parts of the system.

The Australian Medical Association’s new 10-year vision for the future of the nation’s health paints a grim picture if the country is not able to structurally reform primary healthcare and the hospital system, with life expectancy threatening to head into reverse. The manifesto calls for urgent progress on further reforming Medicare and shifting funding towards preventive care.

The doctors’ group has described the state of healthcare in Australia as being locked in a ­“system-wide struggle”, with millions of Australians unable to access or afford to see a GP, growing logjams in public hospitals and a private system in need of reform.

The federal government is ­examining the viability of private hospitals and bureaucrats have for the past month been pouring over the books of operators. A recent meeting of private hospital bosses and private insurers was told the majority of private hospitals were operating at wafer-thin margins of less than 1.5 per cent and were in danger of bankruptcy.

The crisis in private hospitals is threatening to have severe knock-on effects for a public system already on its knees and beset by a system-wide staffing crisis, most acutely in psychiatry.

The AMA’s new vision for Australia’s health lays out a blueprint to transform the health system into one that values prevention as much as treatment, and views healthcare as an investment to be made, as opposed to a cost to be managed.

“While governments recognise the pervasive impact of poor health, healthcare is still viewed as a cost rather than a strategic investment,” said AMA president Steve Robson. “This creates a system that responds to poor health outcomes rather than preventing them. We need to change this thinking.”

Professor Robson will launch the new vision for Australia’s health at the AMA’s national conference at the Gold Coast on Friday. Danielle McMullen, a GP, former AMA (NSW) president and for the past two years vice-president of the federal AMA, was recently elected the next AMA president and will take over from Professor Robson in October.

She has said this is a pivotal time in health in which the system faced unprecedented pressures and has named the proper funding of general practice, reducing surgery waiting lists in public hospitals, ensuring private health insurance provides value and addressing the workforce crisis as pressing issues to be confronted.

As part of the AMA’s healthcare vision, members of the organisation named factors that were impeding timely and equitable access to care as the biggest issues of concern. These included long waiting lists for appointments, workforce shortages, public hospitals that are over capacity, the increasing costs of healthcare, and inadequate supply of services in many areas of Australia.

Widespread burnout among doctors following the pandemic was also highlighted. This was exacerbated by heavy administrative burdens, poor professional development, the impact of inadequate Medicare rebates and increasing cost of delivering care on practice viability, and the challenges navigating the labyrinth of regulatory and compliance requirements.

Professor Robson, under whose presidency the AMA advocated for significant increases in commonwealth investment in general practice and extra funding public hospitals, said the past two years had seen the beginning of important breakdowns in the silos in the health system and deeper collaboration across governments but enormous pressures remain.

Australia currently spends $9,365 per person and over 10 per cent of GDP on health. The country has a high number of years spent in ill-health compared to other OECD countries and is lagging in the prevention of chronic disease.

“Now is the time for innovative policies and measures to address the issues facing our healthcare system and ensure all Australians … have access to good healthcare.”

Here is the link:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/health/health-system-at-crisis-tipping-point/news-story/c37f087728a0130666498df5e895a649

We have all heard these sort of calls a zillion times in the past and we always seem to have muddled through. The hard thing to discern just how severe the problems actually are and how they have changed in the last few years.

I have to say I don’t get the sense of looming catastrophe at present but I fear I may be out of touch with those as the coal face.

It would be good to hear from some who ae working down to pit as to how good or bad things overall are at present!

Let us all know how it is actually going!

David.

Talk About A Clinic Being Driven By A Pure Profit Motive With No Evidence Of Delivering Useful Health Improvement!

This popped up a few says ago:

The Sydney clinic barred from treating patients

By Angus Thomson

August 2, 2024 — 6.13pm

An alternative therapy clinic in Sydney’s north-west has been forced to close its doors as part of the state healthcare watchdog’s crackdown on a controversial medical procedure banned by regulators in the United States.

The NSW Health Care Complaints Commission issued an interim prohibition order against the Ozone Clinic in Castle Hill while it investigates a complaint made about it by a member of the public.

Some of the services advertised on the Ozone Clinic website, which has since been deleted but is available through an internet archive. Credit: WayBack Machine

A commission spokesperson said the order was necessary “to protect public health and safety” but said they could not comment on the specifics of the complaint during the investigation.

“This action follows the execution of a search warrant on July 25, 2024 as part of an ongoing investigation into ozone therapy practices, specifically intravenous and skin puncture procedures,” the spokesperson said. “Public safety is paramount when seeking alternative health treatments.”

The commission said no person working for the Ozone Clinic should deliver medication intravenously or through skin puncture to any member of the public while the ban was in place.

An Ozone Clinic spokeswoman said it was “regretful” that the HCCC had levelled allegations against the clinic, and said she stood by the safety of ozone therapy.

“The Ozone Clinic has operated in the community with a strong commitment to improving the lives of those who come through our doors,” she said. “We are hopeful that the process that ensues will be of educational value for the HCCC and anyone interested in this type of therapy.”

Ozone therapy involves introducing ozone, a form of oxygen, into the patient’s body. When administered intravenously, the gas is usually dissolved into blood taken from the patient and then delivered back into the body.

The clinic’s website, since deleted but accessible through internet archives, claims to have treated more than 7000 patients. It promotes ozone as a natural detoxifier, antiviral, antibiotic, antifungal and antiparasitic which “resets the mitochondria” and is a “natural immune system booster”.

This is despite the US Food and Drug Administration noting that, in order to be effective as a germ-killer, ozone “must be present in a concentration far greater than that which can be safely tolerated by man and animals”.

The agency updated its guidance in 2019 to outlaw the use of ozone gas to treat “any medical condition for which there is no proof of safety and effectiveness”.

Only two medical devices containing or producing ozone are approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration for legal sale in Australia.

One is a commercial-grade cleaning product and the other is an ozone-generating device used in dentistry as a disinfectant and treatment for tooth decay.

Another Sydney ozone practitioner, Linh Tuan Phan, was stung with an interim order last month preventing him from providing any health services, “including ozone therapy or any procedures involving skin penetration”, until the end of August.

Here is the link:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-sydney-clinic-barred-from-treating-patients-20240802-p5jyw3.html

There really are too many crooks out there that are so ready to seek to exploit the ignorant, vulnerable or desperate!

I hope they lose a lot of money with all this nonsense and that the TGA makes sure no one uses their useless services!

It would be funny if there were not innocent and probably desperate innocents being exploited.

David.

This Is Surely Just The Usual Way The “Hype-Cycle” Plays Out.

This appeared a day or so ago.

Is the AI bubble about to burst?

By David Swan

August 3, 2024 — 5.00am

The artificial intelligence sector is on a precipice. Already shaping as the defining technology of at least the last 20 years, generative AI and its frothy company valuations are now either booming or are a bubble about to burst, depending on who you ask.

The arms race kicked off in earnest in November 2022 when OpenAI released ChatGPT, leading to a scramble in Silicon Valley – and Australia – to engineer AI products and put them into users’ hands. Tech giants and investors alike have splashed billions of dollars into AI software companies and their suppliers, such as chipmaker Nvidia.

Canva this week acquired Australia’s most-hyped AI start-up, Leonardo.ai, for a reported $320 million. Leonardo AI offers a free tool for creating AI-generated art, and has produced more than a billion images over the past 18 months.

Yet until this week, Australia was by all accounts getting left behind. The nation was shaping as a relative minnow, eclipsed by the likes of the US and China, which have moved full steam ahead in developing large language models and deploying them to the masses.

One deal has likely altered Australia’s trajectory in one fell swoop, however.

Canva this week acquired Australia’s most-hyped AI start-up, Leonardo.ai, for a reported $320 million. Leonardo AI offers a free tool for creating AI-generated art, and has produced more than a billion images over the past 18 months.

Viewed bullishly, the tie-up finally makes Australia relevant on the world stage when it comes to AI, and positions a combined Canva-Leonardo.ai as a likely AI powerhouse that could eventually rival the likes of Nvidia and even ChatGPT maker OpenAI in terms of relevance, and valuation. Canva is currently worth some $40 billion – a valuation rivalling that of Telstra and Qantas – and employs thousands of Australians, most of whom are in Sydney. It’s continuing to grow at a rapid clip even amid a tepid broader economy.

Nearly 200 million people globally use Canva’s software every month to create designs, and adding Leonardo.ai’s customer-base of 19 million people to that mix should instantly create a globally significant AI software maker.

The acquisition will help Canva remain on par with AI heavyweights Microsoft and Adobe, according to eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert.

“Every developer is scrambling right now to integrate AI into their products and Canva is one company that arguably needs the biggest boost here to stay ahead of Adobe and Microsoft’s monumental AI push,” Gilbert said.

“The response to Canva’s AI text generator ‘Magic Write’ seems underwhelming, so acquiring an established, dedicated generative AI platform makes more sense than developing one from scratch. It really all depends on how innovative Canva’s integration of Leonardo’s image generation capabilities winds up being.”

Former Boston Consulting Group strategist Barb Hyman leads one of Australia’s other most successful AI start-ups, Sapia.ai, which has raised $17 million from Woolworths and Macquarie and whose software is dubbed an “AI career coach in your back pocket”.

“I love the story of one amazing Australian tech company buying another one, there’s a beautiful symmetry in that. I’m delighted for them,” she said.

For Hyman, Australian AI companies shouldn’t even try to directly compete with the likes of Google, which employs thousands of workers who have PhDs in artificial intelligence.

“There is a different way to be competitive ... that’s when you have a data set that is unique. We have a proprietary data set that took us two years to build initially,” she said.

“The ones with the unique data are the ones who are going to see the exponential value, rather than just trying to compete with Google or Meta using all the same open-source data that everyone else has.”

For the local economy and investors, there’s now much riding on the success of Canva and Sapia.ai, as well as the degree to which other businesses can adopt AI technologies.

Australia’s productivity has been flat for the past decade and AI adoption will be crucial to the growth of Australia’s healthcare and education industries in particular, according to Dr Stephen King, who serves on Australia’s Productivity Commission.

“AI could be the way that the developed world gets out of its current productivity malaise,” King said.

“AI is the first general purpose technology likely to radically improve productivity in service-dominated areas.

“Australia doesn’t do a lot of inventing of new technology. Ninety-eight per cent of our business productivity improvement comes from the adoption, not creating the new stuff. So the big advancements that AI will make to Australian productivity will occur through its adoption.”

Kim Oosthuizen, head of artificial intelligence for software giant SAP, agreed and said that it’s important for businesses to keep humans in the loop when it comes to AI usage, to reduce error rates and “hallucinations”, the term used to describe incorrect or misleading results generated by AI models.

“Most people think that AI is just ChatGPT. But in a business context, people don’t realise that these tools are here today, we’re just not aware necessarily that they’re AI,” she said. “And I don’t think most people know or care which technology sits in the back end, or which vendor is responsible for it, it’s more about, is it really useful?”

That question over usefulness is critical for US investors who are weighing AI’s potential, and are preparing for the first interest rate cuts since 2020. Shares in Apple, Microsoft, Google parent company Alphabet and Nvidia have all taken a hit over the past week, leading some to question whether the AI hype train is over.

Stocks in Nvidia have been particularly volatile, falling more than 25 per cent from their June peaks of over $US140 ($215) a share before on Thursday bouncing back to record the biggest daily jump in market value in Wall Street history. The company dominates the market for the chips underpinning generative AI programs, and is widely seen as a proxy for the heady opportunities – and what others perceive as excessive hype – in the sector. Nvidia commands roughly 80 per cent of the AI chip market.

Meanwhile, infrastructure costs are skyrocketing across the board. The AI sector has similar traits to the cryptocurrency sector, in that it relies on heavy computing power for its calculations.

In announcing Meta’s quarterly earnings this week, chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said the computing resources required to train its large language model, Llama 4, would likely be almost 10-times as much as Meta used to train Llama 3. Future models will grow beyond that, he said.

“Meta AI is on track to be the most used AI assistant in the world by the end of the year,” Zuckerberg told investors and analysts on a conference call.

“At this point, I’d rather risk building capacity before it is needed rather than too late given the long lead times for spinning up new inference projects.”

Meta is spending billions in a bid for AI dominance. To meet its AI needs, the company would buy 350,000 Nvidia H100 graphics cards by the end of 2024, he said.

Google parent company Alphabet meanwhile last week reported that capital expenditure was $US13.2 billion in the second quarter, up 91.4 per cent from a year ago. Microsoft this week reported capital expenditure of $US19 billion for the quarter, up nearly 77.6 per cent from $US10.7 billion a year prior.

Not everyone is convinced the price tag will be worth it.

Goldman Sachs’ top stock analyst, Jim Covello, believes most generative AI technology is not ready for prime time. He said tech giants and others were set to spend more than $US1 trillion on AI capex in coming years, with so far little to show for it.

“Despite its expensive price tag, the technology is nowhere near where it needs to be in order to be useful,” Covello said in a recent AI report.

“Overbuilding things the world doesn’t have use for, or is not ready for, typically ends badly.”

For Covello, most technological transformations in history have replaced very expensive solutions with very cheap solutions. He said that replacing jobs with extremely expensive technology was basically the opposite of how things should be done.

“We estimate that the Al infrastructure build-out will cost over $US1 trillion in the next several years alone, which includes spending on data centres, utilities, and applications,” Covello said.

“So, the crucial question is: what $US1 trillion problem will Al solve? Replacing low-wage jobs with tremendously costly technology is basically the polar opposite of the prior technology transitions I’ve witnessed in my 30 years of closely following the tech industry.”

Some analysts see the lofty valuations as justified, however. Rhys Davis, InvestorHub chief and co-founder, said the average value multiplier for AI companies sat at around 25-times, in comparison to the estimated 40-times of Canva and mining companies trading at 70-times.

“To say AI is ‘overhyped’ ignores the fact that tech and non-tech businesses are exceeding those valuations,” he said.

“AI’s transformative nature cannot be understated. It’s a driving force that’s enabling companies to scale and operate at an unprecedented efficiency level, previously thought unimaginable. Of course, what’s crucially important is the proprietary and defensible nature of the technology ‘under the hood’.”

For Covello, the AI bubble could take a long time to burst. In the meantime, it’s AI infrastructure providers who will likely continue to benefit.

“While the question of whether AI technology will ever deliver on the promise many people are excited about today is certainly debatable,” he said.

“The less debatable point is that AI technology is exceptionally expensive, and to justify those costs, the technology must be able to solve complex problems, which it isn’t designed to do.”

Here is the link:

https://www.smh.com.au/technology/is-the-ai-bubble-about-to-burst-20240731-p5jxxa.html

I really do find this a fascinating article but have to confess I have absolutely no idea where it is all going to land and how long it will be until we see real and sustainable profits being booked by these companies. Given the rate of “cash-burn” they all incur it surely won’t be long until we see the “wheat sorted from the chaff”

I give it about six months before we are all pretty clear just who the winners and losers are. It really does, however, have the feeling of a classic hype-cycle and I am confident we will all see who the winners are soon!

How long do you think it will take?

David.