Quote Of The Year

Timeless Quotes - Sadly The Late Paul Shetler - "Its not Your Health Record it's a Government Record Of Your Health Information"

or

H. L. Mencken - "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."

Friday, January 28, 2022

This Seems To Be Pretty Big News On Progress For Interoperable Patient Information Sharing.

This appeared last week:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: HHS Press Office
202-690-6343
media@hhs.gov

ONC Completes Critical 21st Century Cures Act Requirement, Publishes the Trusted Exchange Framework and the Common Agreement for Health Information Networks

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC) and its Recognized Coordinating Entity (RCE), The Sequoia Project, Inc., today announced the publication of the Trusted Exchange Framework and the Common Agreement (TEFCA). Entities will soon be able to apply and be designated as Qualified Health Information Networks (QHINs). QHINs will connect to one another and enable their participants to engage in health information exchange across the country.

The 21st Century Cures Act, passed in 2016, calls for the development of a trusted exchange framework and a common agreement. The Trusted Exchange Framework is a set of non-binding but foundational principles for health information exchange, and the Common Agreement is a contract that advances those principles. The Common Agreement establishes the technical infrastructure model and governing approach for different health information networks and their users to securely share clinical information with each other – all under commonly agreed-to rules-of-the-road.

The Common Agreement supports multiple exchange purposes critical to improving health care and has the potential to benefit a wide variety of health care entities. This flexible structure allows stakeholders—such as health information networks, ambulatory practices, hospitals, health centers, federal government agencies, public health agencies, and payers—to benefit from TEFCA through improved access to health information. Individuals will also be able to benefit from TEFCA and seek access to their health information through entities that offer individual access services.

Also available today is the TEFCA Health Level Seven (HL7®) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resource (FHIR®) Roadmap (TEFCA FHIR Roadmap), which outlines how TEFCA will accelerate the adoption of FHIR-based exchange across the industry.

“Operationalizing TEFCA within the Biden Administration’s first year was a top priority for ONC and is critical to realizing the 21st Century Cures Act’s goal of a secure, nationwide health information exchange infrastructure,” said Micky Tripathi, Ph.D., national coordinator for health information technology. “Simplified nationwide connectivity for providers, health plans, individuals, and public health is finally within reach. We are excited to help the industry reap the benefits of TEFCA as soon as they are able.”

The Sequoia Project serves as the TEFCA RCE under a cooperative agreement with ONC. The RCE is charged with developing, updating, implementing, and maintaining the Common Agreement and stewarding the QHIN Technical Framework, which is the technical specification for how QHINs connect to one another. In addition, the RCE plays a central role in designating, onboarding, and providing oversight of QHINs.

“The release of TEFCA today marks the beginning of the implementation phase,” said Mariann Yeager, CEO of The Sequoia Project. “This is a very exciting milestone that reflects the thoughtful feedback of public and private stakeholders throughout the process. We look forward to supporting everyone as they review the Common Agreement and identify their role in this new public-private paradigm advancing health information exchange nationwide.”

The RCE will be hosting a series of public engagement webinars exit disclaimer iconto provide further information about TEFCA (the first of which will be on January 18 at 12:00 ET). This will help entities interested in participating in or leveraging the benefits of TEFCA fully understand how it works and help prospective QHINs decide whether they should sign the Common Agreement. Following an application and review process, entities that have signed may be designated QHINs. It is anticipated the initial QHINs will onboard to the network-of-networks to begin sharing data with one another this year.

To register for the RCE’s upcoming webinars and to sign up for their contact list, please visit RCE.SequoiaProject.org exit disclaimer icon.

For more information from ONC about TEFCA, please visit HealthIT.gov/TEFCA.

Here is the link to the release.

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/01/18/onc-completes-critical-21st-century-cures-act-requirement-publishes-trusted-exchange-framework-common-agreement-health-information-networks.html

It is interesting that FHIR is to play such a central role!

FHIR to play crucial role in long-term TEFCA strategy

While the coding standard is still moving along a path to maturity, industry expects it to be fully ready when timeline specifies its use.

Jan 20 2022


Diana Manos

Healthcare leaders weighed in optimistically on the newly released federal Trusted Exchange Framework and Common Agreement, a plan to facilitate nationwide health information-sharing that will rely heavily on HL7’s Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard within three years.

Mandated by the 21st Century Cures Act, the Trusted Exchange Framework and Common Agreement (TEFCA), creates the baseline legal and technical requirements that will enable secure digital health information exchange, leaning heavily on FHIR for data exchange.

The set of standards, including both a coding framework to automate information exchange, as well as bundles of pre-accepted coding that facilitate “use cases” or types of transactions, are in various stages of maturity and gaining widespread acceptance and being universally applied.

ONC National Coordinator Micky Tripathi said FHIR isn’t fully ready, but it will be by the time TEFCA’s roadmap for its incremental adoption is achieved. “[It’s] not at a point of maturity for network enablement,” he said at an event introducing TEFCA. “But that said, there are a number of networks across the country that are starting to either run pilots or actually starting to think about putting (FHIR capabilities) into production that would help with the scalability of a FHIR-based exchange.

“Most of the FHIR activity out in the market today is point to point, using FHIR APIs, and scalability of those is hard,” Tripathi said. The problem becomes how to locate where records are so that an end user knows which points to connect.

In writing TEFCA, ONC framers tried to focus on where FHIR is mature and asked, “How do we help energize that and help to scale that as quickly as possible; and then how do we accelerate the maturity of it for network-level exchange, where it's least mature right now?” Tripathi said.

More here:

https://www.healthdatamanagement.com/articles/fhir-to-play-crucial-role-in-long-term-tefca-strategy?id=129141

From this it really seems a Standards set is coming together that is going to go a long way towards making information for patients way more accessible across the whole country. This is really some achievement I reckon. It will be interesting to see how the national network beds down over the next few years.

David.

 

Thursday, January 27, 2022

The Macro View – Health, Economics, and Politics and the Big Picture. What I Am Watching Here And Abroad.

January 27 2022 Edition

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In the US the rumbles from Russia and China continues with COVID maybe flattening in its rates. Biden is also providing billions of free masks and RATs.

In the UK we see sending of military supplies to try and help the Ukraine as well and stronger rhetoric from the US, UK and EU. Boris J. looks like a 'dead man walking'.

In OZ we are seeing the Morrison Government seemingly loose control of the COVID policy and really seem to be on the back foot with the public. Elsewhere we are seeing a global market sell off relating to the virus and increasing inflation etc. Grace Tame ended he tenure with a huge bang. Dylan A. was a great choice for this year I reckon!

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Major Issues.

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https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/why-we-don-t-have-a-us-style-inflation-problem-20220117-p59osy

Why we don’t have a US-style inflation problem

Karen Maley Columnist

Jan 18, 2022 – 5.00am

Not so fast.

Breathless commentators have been quick to conclude that the surge in US inflation – which dashed to an annual rate of 7 per cent in December, the fastest pace clip in nearly four decades – will inevitably spread to Australia.

And they’ve roused hapless punters from their summer lassitude with their dire warnings that the Reserve Bank of Australia will have no choice but to lift interest rates to combat rampant inflation which, of course, means that banks will lift their home loan rates.

But more measured observers believe that these grim prophesies of rampant inflation and rising interest rates are premature.

After all, Australia’s underlying inflation rate was 2.1 per cent in the year to September 30 – only just managing to claw its way back within the Reserve Bank’s inflation target band for the first time in six years.

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https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/turnbull-had-the-right-idea-on-china-20220115-p59ogw.html

Turnbull had the right idea on China

Tom Switzer

Contributor

January 18, 2022 — 5.30am

It’s important, in the interests of constructive debate, to recognise when political leaders who have been the object of serious criticism in the past turn out to have done something right and to praise them fully for it.

Malcolm Turnbull has had his critics over the years, including this writer. I’ve said that, among other irreverent things, as prime minister (2015-18) he resembled – gasp! – Kevin Rudd: adrift and at the mercy of events.

But credit where it’s due: it’s now absolutely clear that Turnbull’s policy towards China was very much in Australia’s best interests.

Indeed, Turnbull established a model for other states to emulate as the US-China security competition intensifies. He also, crucially, avoided the kind of political tub-thumping posture towards our largest trade partner that sometimes characterises his successor’s approach. Australia, as the former PM counsels, must always be “the reasonable, rational party, open to rapprochement, pragmatic and practical”.

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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/summer-of-frustration-has-angered-voters-20220117-p59oxl.html

Summer of frustration has angered voters

The Herald's View

January 18, 2022 — 5.00am

For many, the spike in COVID-19 infections from mid-December interrupted Christmas gatherings and upended holiday plans. Those needing a PCR test over the summer have been forced to spend hours waiting in queues while home test kits have been scarce and expensive.

Families have been left confused by shifts in pandemic-related policies and unsure about what is required from them amid surging case numbers.

Empty supermarket shelves caused by predictable supply chain disruptions have stoked a perception that our political leaders – who say Australia must now live with the virus – underestimated the turmoil that mass illness would cause.

Businesses are feeling the effects of a “self-imposed” lockdown as many consumers limit their movements, and spending, to protect themselves and their families. Real-time economic indicators, including bank card spending data, point to a marked drop in activity towards the end of last year and the start of 2022. But because no lockdown declaration has been made, there is limited support for those who are struggling. Subdued summer spending will hit small firms still reeling from the pandemic’s disruptions and casts doubt on forecasts for a strong rebound from last year’s lockdowns.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/in-grip-of-pincer-from-left-and-right-pm-faces-defeat/news-story/c8093a8152c4ad895d8a80dfc3761d3c

In grip of ‘pincer’ from left and right, PM faces defeat

Ross Fitzgerald

11:00PM January 17, 2022

Last time Scott Morrison faced a federal election, he pulled off a self-confessed “miracle” victory. That happened in 2019, but it may not happen again. This is because the Prime Minister faces a pincer movement from the left and the right. Also, the never-ending Covid saga finds him increasingly trapped between a rock and a very hard place.

The coming election will most likely turn on the public’s perception of who can best keep us safe. But regardless of its outcome, securing our personal health and safety is set to remain the job of government rather than individuals. Thanks to Covid, this election won’t replicate the standard Australian contest between the party of more freedom versus the party of more government. Instead, it will pit what has become the party of big government against the party of even bigger government.

Even with the Coalition in office, Australia’s pandemic response was always going to produce a surge in spending and an increase in the size and the scope of government. But current circumstances that put a premium on the ability to manage the health crisis seem more likely to benefit Labor incumbents than Liberal, if only because health is seen as a strength of the centre-left rather than the centre-right.

Going into the 2022 election, the government’s political difficulty is that it can hardly reprise the 2019 scare campaign based on accusations that the opposition is planning an irresponsible spending spree; nor, given its “net zero” commitment, can the Coalition reproduce the successful campaign in resources seats about Labor’s threat to jobs. And when it comes to protection against Covid, the state Labor governments have always seemed more ferociously single-minded than any of the Liberal ones. Scott Morrison’s problem is that he can’t really portray himself as the country’s Covid fighter-in-chief as that task largely fell to the states anyway; nor can he present himself as the architect of returning to normal, as his government is as Covid-preoccupied as ever. And the one issue that might have presented a defining difference between the parties, AUKUS, was neutralised by Labor’s swift (and unexpected) concurrence.

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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/worst-january-consumer-confidence-result-since-1992-20220118-p59p43

Worst January consumer confidence result since 1992

John Kehoe Economics editor

Jan 18, 2022 – 1.19pm

Spending has plunged during the omicron virus wave and consumer confidence has posted its worst January result since 30 years ago, when the economy was emerging from a painful recession, new economic surveys reveal.

As thousands of people isolate across the country, spending on entertainment, travel and hospitality has been slashed, while grocery spending has lifted as consumers eat at home more instead of dining out.

ANZ bank debit and credit card spending plummeted 27 per cent in the first half of January, compared to the busy pre-Christmas period in the first half of December.

While spending typically drops early in the new year after Christmas, the spending decline was six to 10 percentage points more than previous Januarys.

Consumer confidence has slumped to its lowest level since October 2020, as the omicron wave surged across Australia and virus testing facilities came under immense strain, according to a separate ANZ-Roy Morgan survey.

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https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/what-bhp-s-big-move-home-means-for-the-australian-sharemarket-20220119-p59pdp.html

What BHP’s big move home means for the Australian sharemarket

Stephen Bartholomeusz

Senior business columnist

January 19, 2022 — 11.05am

BHP’s 20-year experiment with a sophisticated but unwieldy corporate structure will end this week. Its demise has implications, not just for BHP and its shareholders here and in the UK, but the wider Australian sharemarket.

On Thursday BHP shareholders in Australia and the UK will vote to dissolve the dual-listed entity structure constructed in 2001 for the Big Australian’s merger with Billiton.

The structure was ingenious, enabling the companies to avoid hefty tax events at both the corporate and individual shareholder levels and preventing the “flow back” that would normally occur in a cross-border merger as shareholders unwilling, or without a mandate, to hold shares in a company listed in a different jurisdiction sold out.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/no-one-left-behind-in-labor-blueprint-for-better-future/news-story/a5269b744f881899c84d627c03ea6492

No one left behind in Labor blueprint for better future

Anthony Albanese

11:00PM January 18, 2022

Australians are not backward in coming forward when asked to give feedback to their political leaders. That’s a good thing about democracy.

On the weekend I completed a 10-day tour of Queensland, starting in Cairns and moving south nearly 1700km to Brisbane, with visits to all large regional centres in between.

I travelled by road, talking to Queenslanders about their concerns on the ground as we commence the third year of the Covid pandemic and head toward the coming federal election. People are resilient, but they are frustrated over the shortage of rapid antigen tests, the difficulty securing appointments for vaccinations and the food shortages in supermarkets.

Australians know these problems could have been avoided.

No one wants more lockdowns. But most people I met struggled to understand how the Morrison government failed to make better preparations for the reopening of the economy after months of lockdowns caused by its slow rollout of Covid vaccines.

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https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/dixon-advisory-files-for-voluntary-administration-as-claims-mount-20220119-p59pdi

Dixon Advisory files for voluntary administration as claims mount

Jonathan Shapiro and Carrie LaFrenz

Updated Jan 19, 2022 – 1.11pm, first published at 9.33am

Embattled wealth management firm Dixon Advisory has filed for voluntary administration after its directors determined that mounting liabilities from class actions, settlements and regulatory penalties would leave the entity insolvent.

In a statement to the ASX on Wednesday, the firm’s parent company, E&P Financial Group, said PwC partners Stephen Longley and Craig Crosbie had been appointed as voluntary administrators to Dixon Advisory Superannuation Services, after the directors determined that “mounting actual and potential liabilities mean it is likely to become insolvent at some future time”.

The appointment of the voluntary administrators only relates to DASS, and does not affect any other E&P Financial entities or internal funds. Claimants against DASS have no recourse to other entities within E&P Financial.

It is understood that AFCA claims alone – believed to be below $10 million – would not have tipped Dixon Advisory over the edge, but when combined with the ASIC penalty and costs, as well as any class actions, it was clear there was no other option.

The claims include possible damages from two separate class actions led by Piper Alderman and Shine Lawyers, Dixon client claims being handled by the Australian Financial Complaints Authority, and a $7.2 million settlement with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/sympathy-but-no-sorry-from-morrison-20220119-p59pfw

Sympathy but no ‘sorry’ from Morrison

Morrison may not always be to blame, but such is a prime minister’s lot, he has to wear it anyway.

Andrew Tillett Political correspondent

Jan 19, 2022 – 3.33pm

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Wednesday news conference was one of the more uncomfortable ones that he has endured in the pandemic.

During a 20-minute opening statement, Morrison told the nation he felt people’s frustration at coronavirus ruining their summer – but it’s not his fault.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg speak to the media.

When trying to strike an empathetic tone over matters such as testing queues and shortages, empty supermarket shelves and stressed-out hospitals, Morrison began with an appeal to keep things in perspective.

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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/how-investors-are-preparing-for-a-unified-bhp-20220119-p59pfo

How investors are preparing for a unified BHP

Alex Gluyas Markets reporter

Jan 20, 2022 – 5.00am

Investors are preparing for the arrival of a unified BHP on Australian shores as the mining giant appears set to unseat Commonwealth Bank as the economy’s largest listed company in a move that will reshape the local sharemarket.

At 6pm (AEDT) on Thursday, shareholders of BHP Group Limited and its London market presence, BHP Group Plc, will vote on a proposal to end the dual-listing structure and transform the miner into a single ASX-listed company. At least 75 per cent of votes in both stocks in favour of the proposal are required for unification to succeed.

A successful vote would result in the transferral of Plc shares to the ASX-listed BHP, and see BHP’s weighting in the S&P/ASX 200 Index swell to above 10 per cent, from around 6.2 per cent.

Index manager S&P DJI revealed last week it would up-weight BHP on the S&P/ASX indices all at once before trading opened on January 31 if the proposal was approved, despite concerns that such a move could instigate volatility.

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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/furious-youthquake-may-rock-political-foundations-20220120-p59ppu.html

Furious ‘youthquake’ may rock political foundations

David Crowe

Chief political correspondent

January 21, 2022 — 5.30am

The Omicron strain is spreading so fast that every part of the community will feel its impact and the most vulnerable Australians – especially the elderly – will suffer the greatest risk of hospitalisation and death.

Yet, the latest wave is surging through younger age groups in a way that highlights the generation gap and might unleash a real force at the coming election.

The virus is rife among Australians under 30 for good reasons. Many work in the front lines of this pandemic in jobs that make contact with other people essential. They are waiting on tables, stocking supermarket shelves, delivering food. Many are keeping the economy running in the jobs that nobody notices.

And they are last in line for the vaccines. They have waited their turn, done what the nation’s politicians asked of them and now, finally, qualify for booster shots. The timing has been against them: the boosters came too late to help many of them against Omicron.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/aukus-defence-must-ditch-peacetime-mindset-amid-strategic-crisis/news-story/2a40eb4086d7e529dbc87df9c1eaccb2

AUKUS: Defence must ditch peacetime mindset amid strategic crisis

Peter Jennings

11:00PM January 20, 2022

As Defence’s deputy secretary for strategy between 2009 and 2012, I asked US counterparts on three occasions about the likelihood they would share submarine nuclear propulsion technology.

The answer was the same each time: there was no way the US Navy or Department of Energy would hand Australia the technology. Britain had been given access in 1958 under conditions where even today the US has stringent oversight of its capability, but that was the limit of American openness.

The American judgment was that we should stick to our quiet conventional submarines, which the US military valued highly.

Two things have changed since then: first, Communist China presents a near-term existential threat to the global strategic balance and second, Joe Biden is US President. The China threat will outlast Biden but the key question for Australia is: will AUKUS survive a change of president?

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/west-divided-putin-masses-troops-on-ukraine-border/news-story/eb82b19363388b93c1b56b6fe1c5622a

West divided, Putin masses troops on Ukraine border

Editorial

11:00PM January 20, 2022

It was no surprise White House officials felt the need to issue an urgent clarification only 30 minutes after Joe Biden finished talking about the deepening Ukraine crisis at his press conference on Thursday Australian time. His admission that he regards Vladimir Putin taking action to “move in” and invade Ukraine as inevitable, and that the US response will “depend on what he does”, needed to be explained. So did his implied acceptance that a smaller invasion by Russia, what he termed a “minor incursion”, might not merit the same tough response from the Western allies. “I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades, and it depends on what it does,” Mr Biden said. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and what not to do, et cetera.” He also said: “If they do what they are capable of doing, with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine. And our allies and partners are ready to impose severe cost and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy.”

By implying that a “minor” invasion might not invoke the same penalties as a major invasion, Mr Biden has played into Mr Putin’s hands. He has undermined what is already a largely incoherent Western response to the Russian despot’s outrageous ambition to restore what he describes as “Greater Russia” to its days as the USSR.

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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/rate-nerves-plunge-asx-to-largest-weekly-loss-in-14-months-20220121-p59q2t

Rate nerves plunge ASX to largest weekly loss in 14 months

Sharemarkets: Rate nerves plunge ASX to largest weekly loss in 14 months

Alex Gluyas Markets reporter

Jan 21, 2022 – 4.31pm

Australian shares suffered a bruising session on Friday as concerns about an imminent tightening of monetary policy ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting triggered a broad-based sell-off.

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2.9 per cent to 7175.8 this week, with Friday’s loss of 2.3 per cent, or 166.6 points, marking the biggest, single-day decline in two weeks. It was the benchmark’s largest weekly loss since October 2020.

“Less than a week out from the FOMC meeting, investors are worried that the central bank is going to flag aggressive rate hikes and an imminent and rapid unwind of its balance,” said Kyle Rodda, market analyst at IG.

“In effect, it may throw the stock market under the bus to stamp out inflation,” he said. The US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets on January 25-26.

The local market took a weak lead from Wall Street where all three major benchmarks fell as the technology-heavy Nasdaq plunged into a correction, closing the session at its lowest level since June.

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https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/it-s-reasonable-to-assume-equities-will-return-to-pre-pandemic-peak-20220119-p59pgs

It’s reasonable to assume equities will return to pre-pandemic peak

With the Fed behind the inflation curve, expect six to seven interest rate hikes this year and a torrid time for stocks.

Christopher Joye Columnist

Jan 21, 2022 – 1.27pm

For the first time in a long time, we agree with Jeremy Grantham – equities likely need to correct quite significantly. Here are some simple mental models. The cyclically-adjusted Shiller price-earnings (p/e) ratio is sitting at 37 times compared to its long-run mean of 17 times and median of 16 times. The only time in the last 150 years it has been higher was just before the 50 per cent drop in US equities during the “tech wreck”, which resulted in the Shiller p/e falling from 44 to 21 times.

If we suppose that it is reasonable for US shares to normalise back to their pre-pandemic peak on the basis that investors incorrectly extrapolated ultra-low inflation and 10-year bond yields in perpetuity, stocks would need to adjust downwards by 28 per cent.

If we consider a more serious downside scenario whereby equities mean-revert to their December 2018 level (which is when the Fed last had its cash rate at a “neutral” level of 2.5 per cent), shares would have to drop 48 per cent. There are many shortcomings with this analysis. One of the biggest is that this time is different to the recent past in so many ways. Unfortunately, that point of difference implies even greater downside risk.

When was the last time you can remember a US president egging on the Fed to crush inflation and raise interest rates? When do you last recall inflation being a major US political issue? The post-GFC period has been defined by politicians trying to strong-arm central banks into easier, not tighter, policy settings.

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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/election-closes-in-as-pandemic-finishing-line-recedes-once-more-20220120-p59ptx

Election closes in as pandemic finishing line recedes once more

Politicians try to paper over their loss of control as voters resign themselves to waiting out the end of the pandemic.

Laura Tingle Columnist

Jan 21, 2022 – 4.17pm

Observing how fast things keep changing during the pandemic, a senior Morrison government minister observed to colleagues this week that it was unlikely voters would still be talking about the supply of rapid antigen tests when they go to the polls.

His point was that all sorts of new issues could have erupted by whenever the election is actually held, but it was also telling that he made the link.

The election seemed to loom just as large – if unmentioned – at Wednesday’s prime ministerial press conference, which opened with an extraordinary 21-minute defensive monologue from Scott Morrison expressing his empathy for people’s frustration with the way the summer has unfolded, and a long list of everything he and his government have done to deal with COVID-19.

“You’ve seen queues, you’ve seen rising cases, you’ve seen pressures on hospital systems, you’ve seen disruption of supply chains, you’ve seen shortages of tests, you’ve seen all of these in all of these countries all around the world,” Morrison said, repeatedly emphasising that it was happening to everyone and that, in fact, Australia’s record is better than most.

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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/more-future-than-past-in-uk-connection-20220120-p59ptv

More future than past in UK connection

The comfort blanket of shared history obscures the fact that Britain and Australia have many complementary assets to offer in their relations with the rest of the Indo-Pacific.

Ben Bland Contributor

Jan 21, 2022 – 2.08pm

In the midst of a security crisis in Ukraine and a domestic political crisis that may unseat Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Britain’s foreign and defence ministers have chosen to fly to the other side of the world for talks with their Australian counterparts.

It looks like a strange decision at first glance.

But this week’s visit by Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace suggests that Britain is serious about its “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific, which was announced last year as part of a broad review of British security and foreign policy.

This shift has been welcomed by an Australian government that has a similar view of China as a growing threat to the existing global order, and shares many political inclinations (and political advisers) with its conservative British peers.

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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-issues-hurting-the-coalition-s-vote-in-horror-polling-week-20220121-p59q77.html

The issues hurting the Coalition’s vote in horror polling week

By David Crowe

January 22, 2022 — 5.00am

The anger at the federal government over the Omicron wave has been no surprise to some of Scott Morrison’s supporters when record numbers of Australians are being infected with the coronavirus, forced into isolation or turned away at pharmacies that have run out of tests.

Liberals and Nationals are fighting for the government’s survival in electorates across the country and can feel the mood turn against the Prime Minister over his handling of the pandemic.

The doubts over the government’s competence are impossible to ignore in the survey of voters published this week and showing primary vote support for the Coalition fell from 39 to 34 per cent from November to January.

The primary vote results in the exclusive Resolve Political Monitor showed an increase in Labor’s core support from 32 to 35 per cent, putting Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese in a strong position ahead of the federal election.

Liberals knew this was coming after the surge in Omicron cases, the pressure on hospitals, the shortage of rapid antigen tests and the disruption to families at Christmas and New Year.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine/a-lack-of-attention-can-be-devastating-enraging/news-story/c464b83533f876130eba90fd0b3ccae9

A lack of attention can be devastating, enraging

Nikki Gemmell

The Weekend Australian Magazine

11:00PM January 21, 2022

Attention connects. It’s a hand reaching out, a gift, a balm; it mollifies and repairs. A lack of attention can be devastating. Enraging. It can create monsters. Think of the indignant roar of those men facing the retreat of the liberated woman’s subservient attention. The incels who feel the uppity women of this era aren’t giving them enough reverence. Trump’s acolytes who feel belittled, left behind by the woke brigade. Anti-vaxxers rampaging maskless through city streets and protesters lighting the doors to that grand old lady of our nation, old Parliament House.

They all want attention. To be listened to. Seen. A lack of attention can trigger violence, destruction, anarchy; it can also stimulate change at the ballot box. And over this fraught summer it felt like the Australian people were being ghosted, in terms of attention, as a wily new Covid variant raged among them. How quickly will we forget the trials of our festive season, when there seemed like a void, an abrogation of responsibility at the nation’s heart? There were struggles with Covid testing queues, home testing kit supplies, hospital staffing, grocery supply lines. The festive season was ruined for many as they struggled with Omicron’s muscularity. Did the governments – state and federal – understand the depth of the problem? Prepare?

It felt like a struggling populace was not given the gift of attention by politicians bowing to their gods of ideology over the grim realities of medicine; a PM holding up his Christmas barra and laughing at the cricket. Australia had been the envy of the world for so long, holding the line with brutal lockdown sacrifices. But in mid December, NSW premier Dominic Perrottet decided to let it all rip. Just as Omicron was taking off.

The consequence: uncertainty, fury, panic. And as a new school year loomed. All my life there’d been a perception of this country as an efficient, enviable nation, a paragon of smooth functioning. Yet over this summer that perception broke down, and shockingly quickly. What would Australia be like in war, if we were ever invaded? In terms of being prepared, fleet of foot, quick with readiness. What I saw over this summer was a failure to lead when we needed it most. A friend, a despairing Sydney GP, said “the silence was deafening” in terms of how her business was expected to manage through the crisis.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/retirement-plus-inflation-adds-up-to-trouble-for-savings/news-story/9d69db0099a45a7f85e3ec35e143fb2a

Retirement plus inflation can add up to trouble for savings

By Rodney Horin

4:37PM January 21, 2022

An 83-year-old client came into my office recently and conceded that he was worried about his ­future finances.

He said he had done some back-of-the-envelope calculations and realised that his $1m of savings would probably not last if he and his wife lived for another 10 years or so. He is in good health, but he feels his wife will soon need to go into aged care, meaning a ­potential RAD (bond) of $700,000-$1m, and monthly care fees of $3000-$5000.

My client has had a good life. He has worked hard, he ran and sold his business well, travelled and helped his children with their mortgages and school fees. But only now has it dawned on him that his remaining retirement savings may not be enough.

He never took time to seek advice on how long his funds could last based on critical assumptions of annual living costs and potential longevity risk for him and his wife. Throughout his working life he focused on accumulating his super fund but he did not think about the financial realities of his retirement.

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COVID 19 Information

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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/omicron-economic-hit-not-as-bad-as-lockdown-pain-deloitte-20220114-p59oav

Omicron economic hit not as bad as ‘lockdown pain’: Deloitte

John Kehoe Economics editor

Jan 17, 2022 – 5.00am

The hit to supply chains and workers from the omicron virus wave will not derail the economy like earlier lockdowns, according to a new report by Deloitte Access Economics.

About half of Australia’s 13 million workers will skip work for a week in the first half of this year due to COVID-19-linked isolation, but the highly vaccinated economy will be resilient enough to ride out the omicron virus wave, Deloitte says.

The firm’s business outlook tips omicron to weigh on business investment due to increased uncertainty and slow the return of foreign students and tourists.

But it forecasts the economy to grow a healthy 4 per cent this year, a marked improvement on the contraction in quarterly growth during hard lockdowns in 2020 and 2021.

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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/self-imposed-shadow-lockdown-is-crimping-consumer-spending-20220116-p59ojm.html

Self-imposed shadow lockdown is crimping consumer spending

Jennifer Duke

Economics correspondent

January 17, 2022 — 5.00am

There was a time when getting a notification on your phone was fun.

I’ll admit though that now whenever my mobile pings, I look down at it with a bit of fear because it’s most likely Service NSW telling me I have been somewhere that also had a COVID-19 case. The day freezes for a minute as I scroll through my recent history to find the location and consider whether I had been too close to anyone that day or forgotten to wipe down the trolley.

No matter how quick I had tried to be at the grocery store or the service station, nor how infrequent the trip, it seems there’s no escaping the reminder that the virus is lurking almost everywhere. You can wash your hands and wear a mask, both useful in helping protect yourself, but Omicron is not slowing down.

So it’s no surprise some people are feeling cautious right now about where they want to go and what they want to do. Staying home where possible, particularly while there are daily reports the health system is under strain, is a rational option.

It seems many have the same idea. There are already signs people are in their own self-imposed “shadow lockdown” as Omicron cases surge. While it’s early days on the data front, with the official statistics bureau getting through critical November data releases, card spending measures from ANZ for early January along with CreditorWatch statistics for December show a significant drop in activity towards the end of last year and the start of 2022.

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https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/01/17/omicron-neoliberalism-alan-kohler/

6:00am, Jan 17, 2022 Updated: 8:12pm, Jan 16

Alan Kohler: Neoliberalism is at the heart of the Omicron shambles

Opinion

Alan Kohler

It’s a month since the Australian Financial Review ran the memorable headline: “Morrison stares down Omicron: ‘It’s manageable’”.

It was a reasonable spin to put on the Prime Minister’s announcement that opening the borders to skilled migrants and foreign students would go ahead, followed up by his “victory lap” speech to the Sydney Institute that night.

“In a truly global pandemic, Australia’s response has been a positive standout,” declared Scott Morrison, listing the ways in which the pandemic was now in the rear-view mirror while his government’s sights “are firmly through that windscreen on the road ahead”.

But oh boy, that speech and the AFR’s headline have not aged well.

In the days following, the Morrison government and most of the states removed most pandemic restrictions for Christmas, to everyone’s relief but against the advice of epidemiologists.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/in-covid19-pandemic-australia-beats-global-trend-as-life-expectancy-improves/news-story/f3de8c9d7e1a19fb31309ca4b6229f1a

In Covid-19 pandemic, Australia beats global trend as life expectancy improves

Rhiannon Down

11:30PM January 16, 2022

Covid-19 lockdowns have had the unexpected effect of extending the lifespan of Australians, bucking a global trend that saw life expectancies shrink in many parts of the world.

Australian National University researchers have found that the average lifespan increased by 0.7 years – the equivalent of about eight months – in Australia in 2020 for both men and women, likely because of lower rates of other illness such as influenza, a drop in cancer and heart disease and fewer road accidents because of lower social ­mobility.

While life expectancy fell by 1.7 years for women and 2.2 years for men in the US – where several devastating waves of infection left more than 800,000 dead – it increased in Denmark by 0.1 year and Norway by 0.2 years.

ANU School of Demography researcher Vladimir Canudas-Romo, who co-wrote the paper, said the jump in life expectancy was a major increase compared to other nations and the usual growth recorded each year.

“It surprised me a lot; in the past decade, Australia has not been increasing particularly, our life expectancy is increasing very modestly by one month or 1.5 months each year,” professor Canudas-Romo said.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/were-not-off-the-hook-in-supply-crisis-sushi-shortages-are-just-a-symptom-of-a-broader-problem/news-story/a8f9fdfe640ba319ba70e46576f0cb9d

We’re not off the hook in supply crisis: sushi shortages are just a symptom of a broader problem

Jared Lynch

7:41PM January 16, 2022

Sunday may be the traditional day of rest – but not for David Williams. As he slaps an oversized salmon on his kitchen bench, he recalls a lunch he had at Melbourne Japanese restaurant Kenzan last week.

The chefs had prepared a sushi and sashimi platter at the restaurant a stone’s throw from Wil­liams’ office at the Paris end of Collins Street.

As he set his eyes on the meal, something was missing. “Sorry, we have no tuna,” the waiter says.

Their supplier is not delivering from Sydney, citing Covid-19 restrictions. Kenzan is not alone. Covid-19 isolation rules have sparked chaos along the food supply chain, from grocery shortages at Coles and Woolworths to cafes and restaurants being forced to close because they can’t access ingredients or staff.

While the big supermarket chains expect these shortages to ease in coming weeks, Williams – who runs boutique corporate advisory Kidder Williams, with clients spanning the who’s who of agribusiness – expects the crisis to be longer-lasting.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/omicron-to-curb-economic-growth-in-australia-warns-deloitte-partner/news-story/d51e0845729f4dc2030adac2a03f1f1e

Omicron ‘to curb economic growth’ in Australia, warns Deloitte partner

Greg Brown

6:07AM January 17, 2022

The Omicron variant is forecast to limit Australia’s economic growth to 4 per cent this year, down from the 5.5 per cent predicted by the Reserve Bank of Australia before the emergence of the strain.

Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson said Omicron was spreading at such a rapid rate that half of the workforce would likely miss an extra week of work in the first half of the year.

“That is the main reason why our forecasts for 2022 are more modest than those of the RBA (released in) November,” Mr Richardson said.

“They have 5.5 per cent real GDP growth in the year to ­December 2022, whereas we have 4 per cent, with Omicron weighing on everything from business investment … to ­borders.”

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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/virus-deaths-in-2022-running-at-triple-the-pace-of-delta-wave-20220117-p59oqz

Virus deaths in 2022 running at triple the pace of delta wave

Tom McIlroy Political reporter

Jan 17, 2022 – 4.34pm

NSW’s top doctor Kerry Chant has warned of growing COVID-19 fatalities in coming days, as the pace of the omicron wave outstrips previous variants.

In 2022, to date 460 people have died. Those deaths have occurred at more than triple the pace experienced during last year’s delta wave in Australia.

NSW has recorded 17 deaths and 29, 594 new COVID-19 cases, 11,858 from positive rapid antigen tests.

There were more than 1330 deaths recorded in Australia between July 11 and December 31, 2021, an average of eight deaths a day at the height of the delta wave.

Since January 1 this year, a month after omicron cases were first recorded in Australia, there has been an average of 27 deaths a day, a significant increase in the rate of fatalities. It is possible that some deaths this year were due to the delta variant.

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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/deported-djokovic-gets-hero-s-welcome-in-serbia-20220118-p59p08

Israel study: fourth dose shows limited results with omicron

AP

An Israeli hospital on Monday said preliminary research indicates a fourth dose of the coronavirus vaccine provides only limited defence against the omicron variant that is raging around the world.

Sheba Hospital last month began administering a fourth vaccine to more than 270 medical workers — 154 who received a Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine and 120 others who received Moderna’s. All had previously been vaccinated three times with the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine.

The clinical trial found that both groups showed increases in antibodies “slightly higher” than following the third vaccine last year. But it said the increased antibodies did not prevent the spread of omicron.

“Despite increased antibody levels, the fourth vaccine only offers a partial defence against the virus,” said Dr. Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the hospital’s infection disease unit. “The vaccines, which were more effective against previous variants, offer less protection versus omicron.”

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https://www.theage.com.au/national/unions-threaten-to-stop-work-unless-omicron-safety-measures-improve-20220117-p59ov2.html

Unions threaten to stop work unless Omicron safety measures improve

By Benjamin Preiss

January 17, 2022 — 6.01pm

Unions have warned that employees will go on strike if their bosses do not provide enough protection from the fast-spreading Omicron variant as tensions mount over the response to the virus.

But the national employer association has accused the unions of inflaming the situation, saying business could not afford limitless tests and threats of work stoppages were not appropriate when employers were already struggling to preserve jobs.

The union movement is demanding urgent Omicron risk assessments, free rapid antigen tests and N95 masks, and upgraded safety protections as COVID-19 continues playing havoc with supply chains of essential items including food.

ACTU secretary Sally McManus said unions would write to all employers reminding them of their obligations to take all reasonable steps to keep workers safe.

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https://www.ausdoc.com.au/opinion/should-we-reopen-schools-or-not-its-more-complicated

Should we reopen schools or not? It’s more complicated than that

Professor Stephen Leeder

Professor Leeder is an emeritus professor of public health and community medicine at the Menzies Centre for Health Policy and School of Public Health, University of Sydney.

19th January 2022

The dozens of passionate comments left on the AusDoc website as to whether schools should open shortly reveal how difficult it is to make wise decisions in an emotionally fraught setting (as when the health of our children is at stake) without a solid base of facts.   

It is a terribly complicated matter, unlikely to be resolved painlessly.  

Children, parents, teachers, and workplaces will all be affected one way or another. What might be workable in one locality may not work in another – making a ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution an awkward fit.   

We know that COVID-19 thrives in areas of low-socioeconomic privilege, and we should attend especially to the needs of schools in poorer areas when considering closing them.   

The Australian Bureau of Statistics compared the distribution of deaths reported as due to COVID-19 up to the end of July 2021 in five equal groups, or quintiles, of the population according to socio-economic status. 

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https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/everything-is-about-to-get-more-expensive-thanks-to-covid-levies-20220119-p59peq

Everything is about to get more expensive thanks to ‘COVID levies’

Jenny Wiggins Infrastructure reporter

Jan 19, 2022 – 5.04pm

New “COVID levies” charged by logistics companies to recover higher costs incurred during the pandemic are being watched by the competition watchdog for any signs of collusion.

Several big logistics groups, including ACFS Port Logistics, Qube Holdings, Silk Contract Logistics and Melbourne stevedore Victoria International Container Terminal (VICT) have hit customers with new fees that they claim are needed to recoup the cost of paying workers overtime.

ACFS has told customers that its business is suffering from “extreme cost pressures and inefficiency” due to workers either getting COVID-19 or isolating at home with a positive case in their household, requiring a short- term “COVID levy”.

ACFS is charging east coast customers an extra $25 per container for moving the containers through its terminals, yards or warehouses. The fee is only charged once per container.

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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/medical-regulator-approves-first-two-covid-19-treatments-20220120-p59psu

Medical regulator approves first two COVID-19 treatments

Tom McIlroy Political reporter

Jan 20, 2022 – 3.14pm

Vulnerable Australians diagnosed with COVID-19 will have access to two new anti-viral treatments after the medical regulator approved the oral drugs for mild cases.

The government ordered 300,000 courses of Merck’s Lagevrio, also known as molnupiravir, and 500,00 courses of Pfizer’s Paxlovid, known as nirmatrelvir and ritonavir.

They are the first oral treatment options to be approved in Australia but the Therapeutic Goods Administration stressed they are not a substitute for vaccination.

Health Minister Greg Hunt said the drugs were effective in treating people with mild to moderate COVID-19 symptoms but at high risk of progressing to severe disease, and would help reduce admissions to hospital and intensive care. Death rates should also be lower, he said.

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https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/rpa-department-head-lashes-politically-driven-management-of-crisis-20220119-p59pgn.html

RPA department head lashes ‘politically-driven’ management of crisis

By Lucy Carroll and Mary Ward

January 20, 2022 — 5.00am

A high-ranking doctor from one of Sydney’s biggest hospitals has lashed the “politically driven” management of the pandemic, as thousands of health staff remain on COVID-19 leave and the number of hospitals treating coronavirus patients has grown to nearly 100.

In a video briefing to junior staff, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital executive clinical director Professor Paul Torzillo told doctors that directives from state and federal health departments were being filtered by the hospital to determine what was appropriate for staff and patients.

“Increasingly, the pronouncements coming from government are completely politically driven and ... not health-based,” he said in a recording viewed by the Herald.

There are now 95 hospitals managing coronavirus patients across NSW – up from 73 last week. About 5300 staff are on leave due to COVID-19 exposure, placing huge strain on the system.

The video from last week featuring Professor Torzillo is a rare insight into the unvarnished views of senior health staff and how the health system is caught between the pressures of shortening isolation for health workers and the need to keep the infection out of hospitals.

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https://medicalrepublic.com.au/we-need-to-talk-about-masks/61243

21 January 2022

We need to talk about masks

By Euan Tovey

Today US President Joe Biden’s administration has begun shipping free N95 respirators to all US citizens.  

This is both welcome and radical. It recognises two components that have long been missing from an evidenced-based approach to managing the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2. First, that significant transmission occurs via aerosols, and secondly that the gold standard of masks, or respirators, provide efficient protection against such aerosols, and should replace the use of surgical and cloth masks.  

These are major departures from positions held two years earlier. These moves have been driven by important debates and transparent information exchange among the US government, academic circles and the mainstream media.   

At the start of the pandemic, the conventional public health view was that SARS-CoV-2 transmission was via particles >5-10µm diameter – droplets – generated during coughing, talking and other respiratory activities, and thence via virus-contaminated surfaces (fomites). Smaller particles, termed “aerosols”, <5µm, were clinically important only when generated by certain “aerosol generating” medical procedures. Thus, healthcare workers, were advised to use “droplet precautions”, including surgical masks, when managing suspected-covid patients, except during aerosol-generating procedures, when N95 respirators were to be used.  

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https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/the-smart-ways-to-outmanoeuvre-omicron-20220120-p59pq5

The smart ways to outmanoeuvre omicron

With omicron, you never know which small protective act might have saved you from infection this week.

Jill Margo Health editor

Jan 21, 2022 – 10.27am

Next time you get in a taxi, sit in the back seat diagonal to the driver. If you are serious about outsmarting omicron, ask for all the windows to remain open. If that is not possible, the air-conditioning should be on, but not on recycle.

Both you and the driver should be masked and when you get out, it is best to wash your hands, according to leading environmental health expert, Professor Sotiris Vardoulakis, of the Australian National University.

These small tips inform personal responsibility, and are exactly what the new breed of “COVID-19 chasers” don’t want to hear. They are actively seeking to be infected, sitting in cars with friends who have COVID-19, going to pandemic parties or mingling in crowds, unmasked.

They figure that omicron is mild and the sooner they get over the whole damn business, the better. Some have an important event coming up and think they can control the timing of their recovery.

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https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/01/20/omicron-natural-disaster-kohler/

6:00am, Jan 20, 2022 Updated: 11:11am, Jan 20

Alan Kohler: Omicron is a natural disaster. We should treat it as one

Alan Kohler

Economically, the COVID-19 pandemic has changed from being a government-mandated recession to a natural disaster, and should be treated as that.

Government-imposed lockdowns in 2020 and 2021 produced three quarterly GDP contractions out of six over 18 months, including the minus 7 per cent all-time record in the June quarter of 2020.

Unemployment and hardship would have been horrific. But because they were the direct cause of the freeze in economic activity, federal and state governments rightly felt obliged to fully compensate the businesses and individuals affected.

In fact, in the case of the Morrison government’s JobKeeper program, they went overboard, allowing it to become an unchecked, secret windfall for businesses that didn’t need it as well as those that did.

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Climate Change.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/asx-200-warned-on-green-targets-state-street-pressures-boards/news-story/4f7dc3aa9424b34029b345eca0868fe9

Green targets: State Street puts ASX 200 boards on notice

Eric Johnston

9:06PM January 16, 2022

One of the world’s biggest money managers has put Australian companies on notice they need to come clean on how they intend to hit net zero targets, arguing that climate change represents a “systemic risk” that has the potential to destroy value.

State Street Global Advisers, which has more than $US4.3 trillion ($6 trillion) deployed in shares around the world, has told Australian boards that it wants to stamp out “brown-spinning” and will work with companies that are sitting on highly polluting assets to help them shift away from these over the long term.

This is intended to ensure companies don’t simply sell the dirty assets to private equity, which reduces disclosure and makes listed companies appear more “green”.

State Street is the single biggest investor in the Australian stockmarket with $271.6bn under management across the ASX 200. While the bulk of its funds are in passive index-based funds, it intends to use the votes that come with these holdings to directly pressure boards.

State Street chief executive Cyrus Taraporevala said time was running out for companies to make the required progress, particularly with many businesses under global pressure to halve emissions by the end of the decade.

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https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/construction-of-australia-s-largest-wind-farm-begins-20220117-p59ouj

Construction of Australia’s largest wind farm begins

Colin Packham Energy and Resources reporter

Jan 17, 2022 – 4.27pm

Construction work on Australia’s largest onshore wind farm has begun, which when operational will underpin South Australia’s ambitious target of becoming a major exporter of renewable power.

Ambitious French renewable energy company Neoen – which is also building Australia’s largest solar farm in Queensland and has installed the country’s largest battery in Victoria – said the 412 megawatt wind farm is expected to be operational in 2024.

Once up and running, Neoen said it will sell 100MW of the power produced to the ACT after striking a deal with the territory government that also will see it build a 100MW battery in Canberra.

The project will further fuel the boom in Australian renewable power generation, which is pressuring traditional fossil fuel generators, and spur growth in wind power production, which has slowed in recent months.

Wind generation in the final three months of 2021 grew at just 6.4 per cent, data showed earlier this month. That compared with almost 25 per cent growth in 2019 and 19.6 per cent in 2020.

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https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/this-ship-is-carrying-australia-s-energy-future-at-minus-253c-20220119-p59pfp

This ship is carrying Australia’s energy future - at minus 253C

Angela Macdonald-Smith Senior resources writer

Jan 20, 2022 – 10.30pm

History will be made next week when Australia ships the world’s first cargo of liquid hydrogen, an event that will mark a milestone in a looming transformation of exports with one of the country’s most important partners amid the energy transition.

The first ever liquefied hydrogen tanker, the Suiso Frontier, docked at the port of Hastings on Thursday and is due to depart again within a week with its shipment of hydrogen, derived from a $500 million Japanese-backed pilot project tapping the vast but carbon-intensive brown coal fields of the Latrobe Valley.

The project, which requires the extracted carbon to be used or buried, signals the potential emergence of a new low-carbon trade with Japan, which has been Australia’s largest buyer of emissions-heavy coal and LNG over the last several decades but which in October 2020 set a 2050 target to reach net zero emissions.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the project is “key to both Australia and Japan and our hydrogen industries” and demonstrates the commitment of the two nations to cooperate in decarbonisation. Mr Morrison announced $7.5 million of funding to support the $184 million next stage of the project to take it through to commercial operations.

“This project can be a kind of front-runner to achieve clean, new energy for Japan,” said Yuko Fukuma, spokeswoman at Kawasaki Heavy Industries for the tanker that the Japanese firm developed and built over the last five years.

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Royal Commissions And The Like.

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No entries for this category.

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National Budget Issues.

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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-s-low-inflation-bubble-could-pop-this-week-20220113-p59o14

Australia’s low-inflation bubble could pop next week

A higher-than-expected number on Tuesday could reshape the narrative around interest rates, the recovery and the 2022 federal election.

Warren Hogan Columnist

Jan 16, 2022 – 2.55pm

The inflation result on Tuesday next week could be one of the most influential Australian economic statistics released in 2022.

It has the potential to reshape the narrative around the pandemic recovery as well as increase pressure on the Reserve Bank to wind back stimulus and even contemplate rate hikes later in the year.

But probably the most profound short-term implication could be for the government ahead of the imminent federal election.

The global inflation story is moving quickly. In the final three months of 2021, global inflation accelerated once again after a brief reprieve in July and August. This has been most pronounced in the United States, where inflation rose to 7 per cent in the year to December, the highest since 1982.

The acceleration of inflation around the world in recent months has been significant because it has put paid to the view that the pandemic-induced inflation spike from earlier in 2021 was temporary.

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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/jobless-rate-fall-to-4-2pc-pressures-rba-on-interest-rates-20220120-p59pqy

Plunge in jobless rate could force RBA to raise rates sooner

John Kehoe Economics editor

Updated Jan 20, 2022 – 3.22pm, first published at 12.32pm

The unemployment rate fell to just 4.2 per cent last month before the omicron virus wave disrupted the economy, the lowest jobless rate since the mining boom in 2008.

The hiring spree since the end of the delta lockdowns in NSW and Victoria last year will put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider raising interest rates sooner than expected, possibly this year.

The RBA has previously said the unemployment rate needs to fall to the high 3s or low 4s to hit full employment and generate stronger wages growth, which would help lift inflation and enable the central bank to increase borrowing costs.

The addition of 64,800 jobs in December, which was reported on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, caused the national unemployment rate to fall from 4.6 per cent in November.

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Health Issues.

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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/the-fundie-searching-for-the-next-fisher-and-paykel-20220114-p59o6y

The fundie searching for the next Fisher & Paykel

William McInnes Reporter

Jan 17, 2022 – 5.00am

Ellume was the first rapid antigen test provider to get FDA approval in the US, but most Australian fund managers cannot invest in the Brisbane-based COVID-19 home testing manufacturer until it goes public in a much speculated float.

It is one of the companies in the SGH Medical Technology Fund, which can invest in almost the entire spectrum of medical innovators, co-managed by SG Hiscock portfolio manager Rory Hunter.

Most investors follow a traditional route into the industry, earning a degree in finance or economics before joining a buy-side shop as a junior analyst or trader. Others might spend some time on the sell-side first.

The UK-born Hunter embraced the path of experience over traditional education. After finishing high school, he got an internship at an investment manager, working on the sales side, bringing in clients and clipping the ticket.

“I loved making the money and really wanted to stay in the industry,” he recalls. At the end of the internship, he was offered a full-time role.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/revealed-the-160mplus-post-pandemic-windfall-set-to-hit-pathology-players-including-sonic-healius-integral/news-story/fb9eed7d45059a85bad2bef9a4ae62c8

Revealed: the $160m-plus post pandemic windfall set to hit pathology players including Sonic, Healius, Integral

Jared Lynch

2:46PM January 18, 2022

Covid-19 is set to inject $160m-plus a year into the coffers of Australia’s biggest pathology companies when the pandemic subsides and the virus becomes akin to the flu, analysts predict.

Taxpayer-funded Covid-19 tests have delivered a bonanza to listed pathology companies – such as Sonic Healthcare, Healius, Australian Clinical Labs and Integral Diagnostics – fuelling record earnings and generating billions of dollars in revenue.

But the companies have buckled under the soaring number of infections from the Omicron wave, opening the door for the widespread take-up of rapid antigen tests, which are limiting future revenue gains. Still, Royal Bank of Canada analyst Craig Wong-Pan expects Covid-19 will continue to be lucrative for Australia’s diagnostics sector.

“Our base case scenario is for long-run Covid PCR testing revenues in Australia to be about $164m, which is about 20 per cent of the level in FY21,” Mr Wong-Pan said.

“This estimate is based on the size of Medicare-funded influenza tests in FY19, assuming the private Covid market is roughly the same size as the publicly funded market and then including a small increase for higher prices and growth.

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International Issues.

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https://www.afr.com/world/pacific/tonga-volcano-triggers-tsunami-warning-20220115-p59oir

‘Humbling, scary’ eruption triggers Pacific-wide alert

Nick Perry

Updated Jan 16, 2022 – 4.41pm, first published at 12.02am

Wellington | A massive undersea volcanic eruption set off tsunami warnings across the Pacific from Australia to the United States and cut off the island nation of Tonga after sending villagers fleeing to higher ground.

Beaches were closed along Australia’s east coast early Sunday in case waves caused by the eruption crashed ashore, though the threat had eased by later in the afternoon.

Satellite images showed the spectacular eruption that took place Saturday evening, with a plume of ash, steam and gas rising like a mushroom above the blue Pacific waters. A sonic boom could be heard as far away as Alaska.

In Tonga, it sent tsunami waves crashing across the shore and people rushing to higher ground.

The eruption cut the internet to Tonga, leaving friends and family members around the world anxiously trying to get in touch to figure out if there were any injuries and the extent of the damage. Even government websites and other official sources remained without updates on Sunday afternoon.

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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/cracks-appear-in-the-trump-charade-20220116-p59ome

Cracks appear in Trump’s charade

Jill Colvin

Jan 16, 2022 – 5.11pm

Washington | Donald Trump stepped up his election-year effort to dominate the US Republican Party with a rally in Arizona on Saturday where he castigated anyone who dared to question his lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

But more than 3000 kilometres to the east in Washington, there are small signs that some Republicans are tiring of the charade.

Mike Rounds, the generally unassuming senator from South Dakota, was perhaps the boldest in acknowledging the reality that the election was, in fact, fair. Instead of being shunned, he was supported by his GOP colleagues, including Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. Mr Rounds later said the party needed to get “louder” in telling voters the truth about the 2020 campaign.

Meanwhile, top Republicans in Washington have engaged in a behind-the-scenes effort to encourage Maryland governor Larry Hogan, one of Trump’s most vocal antagonists in the party, to run for a Senate seat. And Glenn Youngkin on Saturday became the first Republican since 2010 to be sworn in as Virginia’s governor after running a campaign that kept Trump at arm’s length.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/brazen-putin-tests-divided-west-over-ukraine/news-story/300e93caf6ecb41502442ba3aba9609a

Brazen Putin tests divided West over Ukraine

Paul Dibb

11:00PM January 16, 2022

Vladimir Putin’s talks with Joe Biden, followed by Russian diplomatic discussions with the US, NATO and the Commission on Security and Co-operation in Europe in Europe last week, have produced no progress whatsoever on Russia’s demands for the exclusion of Ukraine from NATO membership.

The Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, states there is now “a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe” and the US National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, says “the threat of a military invasion (of Ukraine) is high”.

Poland’s Foreign Minister claims the risk of war in Europe is greater than ever in the last 30 years. Russian officials are now suggesting Putin will soon be considering military options.

Russia’s demands are for a long-term binding guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO, as well as formal assurance from the West to cease military co-operation with Ukraine. Stoltenberg has indicated these demands are core NATO interests that cannot be negotiated. Both the US and NATO have repeatedly ruled out allowing any other country to veto who can and who cannot be in the alliance. So, relations between the West and Russia are now at a very dangerous impasse.

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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/year-of-the-tiger-shapes-as-crucial-one-for-china-20220116-p59olp

Year of the Tiger shapes as crucial one for China

Grant Wilson Contributor

Jan 17, 2022 – 5.00am

China has a momentous year ahead, book-ended by the Winter Olympics and the 20th National Party Congress.

In all likelihood, President Xi Jinping will emerge with a historic third term, with the formal groundwork having been laid in November, at the 6th plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

For reference, from 1982, China’s constitution had stipulated that the President could not serve more than two consecutive terms.

The 19th National Party Congress in 2017, did away with that. Of the delegates at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, 2964 voted in favour, two voted against, and three abstained.

The session also constitutionally enshrined Xi’s 14-point “Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”. This was introduced into the national curriculum in the third quarter of last year, amid the crackdown on private-sector education providers.

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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-growth-ahead-of-forecasts-but-economy-still-slowing-20220117-p59otq

China growth for 2021 ahead of forecasts, but economy still slowing

Michael Smith North Asia correspondent

Updated Jan 17, 2022 – 3.22pm, first published at 1.13pm

Tokyo | China’s economy grew more than expected last year but a spate of COVID-19 outbreaks and a downturn in the debt-laden property sector weighed on growth in the fourth quarter ahead of a challenging year for Australia’s biggest trading partner.

The release of China’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Monday coincided with a surprise interest rate cut by the country’s central bank, emphasising the government’s mantra to maintain stability in the lead up to the Winter Olympics.

China’s GDP growth slowed to 4 per cent year-on-year in the final quarter of the year but was better than analysts’ consensus forecasts of 3.6 per cent.

On an annual basis, GDP rose 8.1 per cent in 2021 which was slightly above expectations of 8 per cent.

However, some economists said the strong growth was too good to be true and was inconsistent with official monthly data, which pointed to slower quarter-on-quarter growth than earlier in the year.

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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/inflation-heralds-regime-change-in-the-world-economy-20220116-p59ond

Inflation heralds regime change in the world economy

The end of a 40-year-long abundance of labour will bring shock and change to the way that the way that global business and economics work.

Michael Spence Contributor

Jan 17, 2022 – 2.23pm

In 1979, W. Arthur Lewis received the Nobel prize in economics for his analysis of growth dynamics in developing countries. Deservedly so: his conceptual framework has proved invaluable in understanding and guiding structural change across a range of emerging economies.

The basic idea that Lewis emphasised is that developing countries initially grow by expanding their export sectors, which absorb the surplus labour in traditional sectors such as agriculture. As incomes and purchasing power rise, domestic sectors expand along with the tradable sectors.

Productivity and incomes in the largely urban, labour-intensive manufacturing sectors tend to be three to four times higher than in the traditional sectors, so average incomes rise as more people go to work in the expanding export sector.

But, as Lewis noted, this also means that wage growth in the export sector will remain depressed as long as there is surplus labour elsewhere.

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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/why-russia-might-appeal-to-dividend-hunters-20220117-p59ou6

Why Russia might appeal to dividend hunters

Investors targeting dividend yield in some of the biggest Russian companies will find their interests may be aligned with those of Vladimir Putin and his finance ministry.

John Dizard Contributor

Jan 17, 2022 – 2.03pm

Every news consumer in the Western world can now be an expert on the Ukrainian front. The daily Russian order of battle, unit names, logistical issues, whether the ground is frozen deeply enough for heavy armour – it is all there online for the amateur analyst. We even know Russian strategic and tactical intentions thanks to psychologists and Washington think-tank experts.

But what if there is no war? For investors with a high-risk appetite that are willing to overlook geopolitical tensions and concerns over the way Moscow governs, the research might be better deployed on deep-value Russian equities.

One outcome of the Kremlin’s economic and social control over its big companies is high dividend payouts. Since 2016, it has been Russian state policy to force key companies to pay out at least half of their profits in dividends.

This has proved helpful in raising the cash to meet pension and military-industrial development costs. For investors, that means there are quite a few deep-value Russian equities with high dividend yield. According to Renaissance Capital, the consensus forecast for the dividend yield on MSCI Russia Index companies over the next 12 months is currently at 11 per cent. That is the largest such estimated yield among all countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/russia-s-threats-go-far-beyond-ukraine-20220117-p59os2

Russia’s threats go far beyond Ukraine

Any attempt to place weapons close to US cities could create conditions similar to the 1962 crisis that was the closest the world came to a nuclear exchange.

Anton Troianovski and David E. Sanger

Jan 17, 2022 – 11.59am

No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis that Russia has ignited in eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armour over Ukraine’s border.

Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places – perhaps not far from the US coastline – that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

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https://www.economist.com/europe/what-are-russias-military-options-in-ukraine/21807240

The guns of January

As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine?

The Kremlin’s aim would probably be to shatter Ukrainian military power and dictate terms


Jan 17th 2022

VISBY, A PORT on the Swedish island of Gotland, was patrolled by soldiers on foot—and one dog—on the morning of January 14th, noted Aftonbladet, a Swedish newspaper. Then, shortly after lunch, a dozen armoured vehicles “thundered into the harbour on rattling caterpillar tracks”. The same day a transport plane landed with 100 troops. “An attack against Sweden cannot be ruled out,” warned Peter Hultqvist, Sweden’s defence minister, on January 15th, pointing out that Russian landing ships had entered the Baltic Sea. “Sweden will not be caught napping if something happens.”

Sweden’s decision to fortify the Baltic island, which lies close to Russia’s European exclave of Kaliningrad, reflects wider fears that war is looming. Russia has gathered over 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders, with more streaming in from the far east, and declared that talks with America and NATO held last week were a bust. It has also started training and mobilising reserve forces.

Digital skirmishing seems to have begun already. On the same day that Sweden rushed forces into Gotland, Ukraine was hit by cyber-attacks which defaced government websites, and may have locked some official computers. The White House claimed it had intelligence showing that Russia was planning staged acts of sabotage against its own proxy forces in eastern Ukraine to provide a pretext for attacking the country.

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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/joe-biden-s-economic-management-has-been-a-secret-triumph-20220117-p59ovk

Joe Biden’s economic management has been a secret triumph

Putting full employment first will have been worth the trouble of a couple of years of elevated inflation.

Paul Krugman Contributor

Jan 17, 2022 – 3.40pm

All the reporting in the US these days is about rising prices. And I get that: A 7 per cent surge in the consumer price index over the past year comes as a shock, especially because so many people, myself included, didn’t see it coming.

But there’s another story that should be getting more attention: America’s extraordinary success in limiting the damage from a horrifying pandemic. In fact, there’s a good chance that in retrospect we’ll view economic management over the past two years as a policy triumph, despite the inflation spike.

Early in the pandemic many observers feared that we were about to experience a replay of the 2008 financial crisis, only worse. There were, in fact, a couple of weeks in March 2020 when the financial system teetered on collapse. But the Federal Reserve pulled us back from the brink.

Even as the financial crisis receded, however, there were widespread fears that recovery from the pandemic recession, like recovery from the Great Recession, would be sluggish. Economic forecasters surveyed in the spring of 2020 expected the average unemployment rate in 2022 to be above 6 per cent. In fact, it’s already down to 3.9 per cent, only slightly higher than before the coronavirus struck.

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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/don-t-raise-interest-rates-china-s-xi-tells-the-west-20220118-p59p05

Don’t raise interest rates, China’s Xi tells the West

Hans van Leeuwen Europe correspondent

Jan 18, 2022 – 2.36am

London | Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged Western countries not to raise interest rates, warning that “slamming on the brakes” could “challenge global economic and financial stability”.

His unprecedented intervention in global monetary policy comes a day after China’s central bank went the opposite way, slashing interest rates on several forms of short-term borrowing as Beijing battles against a property crunch and an omicron-related economic slowdown.

Mr Xi called for stronger international co-ordination on fiscal and monetary policy - at a time when policies in the West and China are pulling in different directions - saying “major economies should see the world as one community”.

In a speech late on Monday (AEDT) to a week-long “virtual Davos” organised by the Switzerland-based World Economic Forum, Mr Xi also spelt out Beijing’s preference for trickle-down economics, and vowed to “continue to let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation”.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/sweden-rolls-out-armour-on-baltic-island/news-story/a3a4e14b030805a95e087d461c29cadd

Sweden rolls out armour on Baltic island

AFP

5:39PM January 17, 2022

In an unusual move, Sweden has deployed armoured combat vehicles and armed soldiers to patrol streets on the island of Gotland in ­response to increased “Russian activity” in the region.

Some 10 armoured combat vehicles and dozens of armed personnel are patrolling the small port town of Visby on the strategically located island.

The move came after three Russian landing ships sailed into the Baltic Sea through the Great Belt Strait in Denmark last week, amid increased tensions ­between Russia and NATO.

“The armed forces are taking the necessary measures to safeguard Sweden’s integrity and to demonstrate our ability to protect Sweden and Swedish interests,” Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said.

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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/china-and-russia-test-the-limits-of-eu-power-20220118-p59p7z

China and Russia test the limits of EU power

If China successfully bullies Lithuania while the EU watches impotently from the sidelines, that lesson will be noted — not just in Beijing, but in Moscow and Washington, too.

Gideon Rachman Columnist

Jan 18, 2022 – 4.29pm

Are Europeans doomed to spend the 21st century being pushed around by outside powers?

In Brussels, they like to argue that the collective power of the EU is the only way of saving the old continent from that ignominious fate. Although no single European country can stand toe-to-toe with America or China, the EU collectively ranks as one of the world’s three largest economies.

But the idea that the EU’s economic weight can be easily converted into geopolitical power is undergoing a brutal reality check. The Ukraine crisis has seen the EU sidelined. Meanwhile, China has imposed unofficial economic sanctions on Lithuania, an EU member – and Brussels is struggling to find an appropriate response.

If things go badly for the EU over the coming weeks and months, talk of a “geopolitical” Europe will sound increasingly ridiculous. But it is also possible that the current crises – in particular the Lithuanian challenge – will lead to a leap forward in the EU’s ability to defend its interests in the global arena.

The crisis over Ukraine is a matter of war and peace on the European continent, so some EU officials feel humiliated that they did not take part directly in recent negotiations.

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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/xi-s-rightly-wary-of-fed-tightening-20220117-p59oya

Xi’s rightly wary of Fed tightening

Stephen Kirchner Contributor

Jan 18, 2022 – 4.06pm

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s remarks to the World Economic Forum cautioning against a tightening in monetary policy on the part of major developed economies highlights the fragility of the Chinese economy. Xi is right to be particularly concerned about the potential for negative international spillovers from a prospective tightening in United States monetary policy.

China’s economy expanded 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter last year and 4 per cent over the year, the slowest growth pace in 18 months. This was a little better than expected, but only served to fuel long-standing suspicions the official growth data has been smoothed.

Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco have developed a China Cyclical Activity Tracker (China CAT) as a cross-check on the official GDP figures using indices of economic activity –such as electricity, rail shipments and industrial production –that are less amenable to official window-dressing than China’s national accounts.

For the third quarter of last year, the China CAT points to annualised growth of minus 5 per cent, well below the still barely positive official growth figure. This would be only the second time the Chinese economy has seen a contraction since 2000.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/chinas-stimulus-push-skating-on-thin-ice/news-story/e026562ead8639efd680ab0234cf0230

China’s stimulus push skating on thin ice

By The Economist

9:11PM January 18, 2022

China has not enjoyed much success at the sport of curling, which will feature in the Beijing Winter Olympics beginning on February 4. But China’s economic policymakers could draw inspiration from the obscure event.

Like curlers, they have a difficult target to hit: they are thought to be aiming for growth of 5 per cent or more in 2022. And just as the curlers must slide a “stone” (a kind of oversized puck) with enough force to reach the target, but not so much that it crashes off the ice, so China’s policymakers must give a slowing economy enough oomph to grow by 5 per cent, but not so much that it exceeds its limits, contributing to inflation and speculation.

Policymakers are grappling with the impact of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which was reported in Beijing for the first time on January 15th.

Unlike other countries, China has no intention to “live with” the virus, even if its latest iteration is less severe than earlier ones. A wide-ranging lockdown was imposed on the city of Xi’an in central China after its officials failed to contain a Covid outbreak quickly enough. Narrower lockdowns elsewhere have so far left China’s manufacturing supply-chain largely intact.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/antony-blinken-in-last-ditch-effort-to-prevent-russiaukraine-war/news-story/120bbed003062e04c771b6458fc7895a

Antony Blinken in last ditch effort to prevent Russia-Ukraine war

Adam Creighton

3:41AM January 19, 2022

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading to Europe to stare down Russia’s foreign minister in a last-ditch effort to avoid war between Russia and Ukraine, after a week of failed negotiations.

In a snap three day trip to “find a diplomatic off ramp”, Mr Blinken will visit Kiev to update Ukraine’s president Zelensky on US negotiations with Russia, before meeting the German government in Berlin on Thursday, ahead of a one-on-one with Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign Minister in Geneva on Friday.

“We are now at stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack on Ukraine,” a senior state department told reporters on Tuesday in Washington, adding that the US was in the midst of “preparing for a possible invasion”.

“Putin created this crisis by amassing 100,000 troops on the border, this includes moving forces into Belarus over the weekend, these are neither exercises nor normal troop movements … this is extremely dangerous,” she said.

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https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/how-the-pandemic-exposed-the-myth-of-the-anglosphere-20220119-p59pg8

How the pandemic exposed the myth of the Anglosphere

The US has behaved too differently to be classed as part of an English-speaking club.

Janan Ganesh Contributor

Jan 19, 2022 – 12.22pm

Yes, he might lose his job, US-resident Brits are having to explain to neighbours, friends and Uber drivers. Yes, the prime minister of the actual United Kingdom. Yes, over some office parties of less than Caligula-grade decadence.

The bemusement of our hosts is not evidence of their slacker ethical standards. Rather, the problem is that Americans tend to underrate how harsh the UK’s lockdown was for much of 2020 – and how correspondingly provocative Boris Johnson’s breaches of it are.

In turn, both countries struggle to believe the severity of the restrictions under which Australians have lived. A bid for “COVID-19 zero” made the place all but unvisitable at times, even for passport-holding expats. Melbourne had no fewer than six lockdowns.

Unable to renew his near-monopoly on that city’s grand slam tennis tournament, Novak Djokovic can attest to the strength of feeling there.

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https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-world-s-disconnect-could-lead-to-economic-trouble-20220119-p59pck.html

Great disconnect: The world may not be ready for looming economic trouble

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

January 20, 2022 — 5.00am

There is little doubt that advanced countries in the first half of 2022 will pull back, albeit partially, on the ultra-stimulative monetary policies they have pursued for several years.

What is more consequential, yet less certain, is when and how this will lead to a meaningful tightening of financial conditions and what the spillover effects will be for the global economy. These issues are of interest not only to policy makers around the world but to businesses, households and investors as well.

Already, expectations have changed drastically for US monetary policy.

Less than two months after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “retired” the “transitory” characterisation of inflation, consensus for this year has shifted to include the end of large-scale asset purchases, at least three interest rate increases starting in March and the initiation of shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet.

This change has come in the context of high and persistent inflation, including a 7 per cent reading for the US consumer price index for December, and what some, such as BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, call a “red hot” labour market.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/defence-ties-vital-to-counter-china-truss/news-story/b78943dd035f3d52e604c05e779c124c

Deeper defence ties vital to counter China’s influence, says Liz Truss

Ticky Fullerton

11:01PM January 19, 2022

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss says defence ties with Australia will continue to deepen, with work on a mutual access defence agreement under way, as she warns of a world of increased aggression and an unhealthy economic dependency on China.

In an interview with The Australian before a four-day visit to meet Foreign Minister Marise Payne – and with her government in crisis over Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s leadership – Ms Truss said trade and investment were at the core of her thinking to build a “network of liberty”.

“I see Australia absolutely crucial as part of this alliance in favour of freedom and democracy. Australia has led the way” she said.

Ms Truss did not rule out a shift in approach to the delivery of Australia’s submarines to a more collaborative development by the three AUKUS parties rather than a choice of Britain’s Astute-class or America’s Virginia-class.

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https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/billionaire-investor-says-historic-sharemarket-crash-is-nearly-certain-20220121-p59q23.html

Billionaire investor says historic sharemarket crash is ‘nearly certain’

By Erik Schatzker

January 21, 2022 — 6.45am

Jeremy Grantham, the famed investor who for decades has been calling market bubbles, said the historic collapse in stocks he predicted a year ago is underway and even intervention by the Federal Reserve can’t prevent an eventual plunge of almost 50 per cent.

In a note, Grantham, the co-founder of Boston asset manager GMO, describes US stocks as being in a “super bubble,” only the fourth of the past century. And just as they did in the crash of 1929, the dot-com bust of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008, he’s certain this bubble will burst, sending indexes back to statistical norms and possibly further.

That, he said, involves the S&P 500 dropping some 45 per cent from Wednesday’s close -- and 48 per cent from its January 4 peak -- to a level of 2500. The Nasdaq Composite, already down 8.3 per cent this month, may sustain an even bigger correction.

“I wasn’t quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as I had been about the tech bubble of 2000, or as I had been in Japan, or as I had been in the housing bubble of 2007,” Grantham said in a Bloomberg “Front Row” interview. “I felt highly likely, but perhaps not nearly certain. Today, I feel it is just about nearly certain.”

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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/us-stocks-decline-as-traders-eye-risks-bitcoin-sinks-20220122-p59qbi

Tech leads slide on Wall Street; bitcoin sinks

Vildana Hajric and Emily Graffeo

Jan 22, 2022 – 5.00am

US stocks fell, capping the worst week since the outbreak of the pandemic roiled markets, with tech shares bearing the brunt of the sell-off amid shaky company earnings and prospects for higher US interest rates.

The S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level, for the first time since 2020.

·         On Wall St: Dow -1.3% S&P 500 -1.9% Nasdaq -2.7%

·         In New York: BHP -4.5% Rio -2.4% Atlassian -2.9%

·         Tesla -5.3% NYSE Fang -5.3% Amazon -6% Netflix -21.8%

·         Apple -1.3% Meta -4.2% Microsoft -1.9% Alphabet -2.6%

·         In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.6% FTSE -1.2% CAC -1.8% DAX -1.9%

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slid the most among major benchmarks Friday, led by a more than 20 per cent plunge in shares of streaming giant Netflix.

Bitcoin tumbled in an extended selloff for cryptocurrencies, briefly falling below $US38,000 to its lowest level in more than five months; it was down 9.7 per cent to $US38,013.02 near 8.30am AEDT on bitstamp.net.

Volatility that has gripped markets this month showed little sign of letting up Friday, with the S&P 500 falling for a fourth day, extending losses in the period to 5.7 per cent for the worst, albeit shortened, week since March 2020. Option expirations of more than $US3 trillion helped add to market turbulence.

ASX futures fell 49 points or 0.7 per cent to 7006; the S&P/ASX 200 shed 167 points or 2.3 per cent on Friday.

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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/jeremy-grantham-doubles-down-on-crash-call-20220121-p59q2g

‘Nearly certain’: Jeremy Grantham calls ‘super bubble’ in stocks

Erik Schatzker

Updated Jan 21, 2022 – 7.47am, first published at 6.59am

Jeremy Grantham, the famed investor who for decades has been calling market bubbles, said the historic collapse in stocks he predicted a year ago is under way and even intervention by the Federal Reserve cannot prevent an eventual plunge of almost 50 per cent.

In a note posted on Thursday (Friday AEDT), Grantham, the co-founder of Boston asset manager GMO, describes US stocks as being in a “super bubble”, only the fourth of the past century.

And just as they did in the crash of 1929, the dotcom bust of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008, he is certain this bubble will burst, sending indexes back to statistical norms and possibly further.

That, he said, involves the S&P 500 dropping some 45 per cent from Wednesday’s close – and 48 per cent from its January 4 peak – to a level of 2500. The Nasdaq Composite, already down 8.3 per cent this month, may sustain an even bigger correction.

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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-uk-step-up-military-co-operation-amid-china-risk-20220121-p59q5w

Australia, UK step up military co-operation amid China risk

Andrew Tillett Political correspondent

Jan 21, 2022 – 5.23pm

Australia will host more visits from British troops, warships and submarines as part of a stand against “malign authoritarianism”, following top-level diplomatic and defence talks between the two countries.

But a more semi-permanent basing of British forces in Australia is off the immediate agenda, despite suggestions a UK nuclear-powered submarine could make Perth’s submarine base its home port, as a stepping stone to Australia gaining access to the technology under the AUKUS agreement.

Defence Minister Peter Dutton, Foreign Minister Marise Payne, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace following AUKMIN talks. Rhett Wyman

Following Friday’s AUKMIN talks, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Britain and Australia stood shoulder-to-shoulder in the defence of freedom and democracy against multiple aggressors.

“The reality is that threats are rising across the world,” Ms Truss said at a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Marise Payne, Defence Minister Peter Dutton and UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

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https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-common-prosperity-agenda-shows-every-sign-of-backfiring-20220119-p59pcx.html

China’s ‘common prosperity’ agenda shows every sign of backfiring

By Jeremy Warner

January 21, 2022 — 5.00am

China, land of perpetual growth and boundless opportunity, forging its way to a glorious future of global hegemony and unchallenged economic prowess under the inspired and benevolent leadership of the all-powerful President Xi Jinping.

The West’s political leaders may all be at a befuddled loss over how to deal with an ever more assertive China, but our major corporations and financial institutions cannot get enough of it. However grovelling the kowtow required, if it secures a foothold in Chinese markets, it’s judged worth the humiliation.

Time for a reality check. This may come as a surprise, but China was the world’s second-worst performing stock market last year, ranking 58th out of 59, only marginally ahead of Pakistan - this despite seeming to have had a far better pandemic than virtually all Western counterparts.

The long-term picture scarcely looks any better. Over the past 30 years, Chinese stock markets as measured by the MSCI China Index have delivered a paltry 1.76 per cent annualised rate of return, compared to 7.47 per cent for emerging markets as a whole and 10.72 per cent for the US S&P 500.

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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aggressors-working-together-uk-s-truss-warns-china-could-follow-russia-into-war-20220121-p59q8p.html

Aggressors working together: UK’s Truss warns China could follow Russia into war

By Peter Hartcher

January 22, 2022 — 5.00am

China could use a Russian invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity to launch aggression of its own in the Indo-Pacific, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has warned.

“I don’t think we can rule that out,” Ms Truss said during an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

“Russia is working more closely with China than it ever has. Aggressors are working in concert and I think it’s incumbent on countries like ours to work together.”

Ms Truss, who is in Sydney for talks with her Australian counterpart Marise Payne, is cited as a leading contender for Britain’s prime ministership in the event scandal-plagued Boris Johnson is forced out in a leadership spill.

She told reporters at Admiralty House that Mr Johnson had her “100 per cent support” and stressed he was doing “a fantastic job”.

American foreign policy analyst Hal Brands wrote this week “the most glaring danger” was that the US could have to fight wars against China and Russia simultaneously. “This would indeed be a nightmare scenario for a one-war military,” he concluded.

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/many-dead-or-missing-as-horrific-air-strike-destroys-yemen-jail/news-story/30aec82ecf40c6700a0b04185165e120

Air strike on Yemen prison leaves at least 70 dead

AFP

January 22, 2022

At least 70 people were killed in an air strike on a prison as Yemen's long-running conflict suffered a dramatic escalation Friday that drew condemnation from UN chief Antonio Guterres.

The Huthi rebels released gruesome video footage showing bodies in the rubble and mangled corpses from the attack, which levelled buildings at the prison in their northern heartland of Saada.

"The children were reportedly playing on a nearby football field when missiles struck," Save the Children said.

They said the prison in Saada was used as a holding centre for migrants, who made up many of the casualties.

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I look forward to comments on all this!

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David.