April 28 2022
Edition
-----
Sadly the
Russian war against Ukraine continues and seems to get worse by the week. Putin is now saying he will attack any one who helps Ukraine. This can still end very badly!
In the US
they are working to help Ukraine as hard
as they can while politically things seem as bad as ever internally.
We are seeing
the UK PM in India on trade and defence matters mainly.
We are now in
Week 3 of the six week General Election. The level of debate has been pretty
pathetic so far IMVHO and COVID has upended the Labor efforts recently. I
continue to worry that we are not taking our COVID rates and deaths seriously - the death rate is way too high for
relaxation of all controls IMVHO!
-----
Major Issues.
-----
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/04/18/election-campaign-silen-issues-pascoe/
6:00am, Apr
18, 2022 Updated: 6:32pm, Apr 17
Michael Pascoe: The federal election campaign is silent on the issues that
count
Michael Pascoe
It seems the
most extraordinary story: Seven Coalition MPs on the record “have hit back at
criticism of Scott Morrison’s broken promise to deliver a federal ICAC,
declaring voters aren’t raising the corruption commission”.
It also seems
like a story successfully promoted by “Coalition sources”.
To
paraphrase, “the punters don’t care about integrity in government, so we don’t
need to”.
As far as
excuses go for not delivering the integrity commission promised four years ago,
it is pathetically, miserably, depressingly weak, albeit still better than
Scott Morrison’s actual excuse: “It’s Labor’s fault.”
But the
“Don’t Care 7” find some support in the Streem media monitor
count of top campaign issues in the first week of the official circus.
“Integrity” or “ICAC” didn’t make the top 10 mentions.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/senate-race-is-one-of-the-most-interesting-in-recent-memory-20220328-p5a8hn
Senate race is one of the most interesting in recent memory
Tom McIlroy Political
reporter
Apr 16, 2022
– 12.00am
This year’s
Senate race is one of the most interesting in recent memory given its diverse
field of candidates and the major parties contesting more seats than usual
after the 2016 double dissolution.
The results
will deliver a fascinating six years in the upper house.
There are 76
seats in the Senate, made up of 12 senators for each of the six states and two
senators for each of the two territories. But at each election only half of the
Senate seats are up for grabs because each member serves a six-year term.
In the
current Senate, the Coalition holds 36 seats, Labor has 26 and the Greens have
nine. Crossbenchers hold another five: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has two
(Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts), Centre Alliance has one (Stirling Griff),
the Jacqui Lambie Network has one (Jacqui Lambie) and Rex Patrick stands as an
independent.
The Senate
holds a lot of power and its composition can affect how successful a government
is at getting new legislation across the line. As it stands the Coalition is
three seats short of a majority and has therefore had to depend on the
crossbench senators.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-pays-price-for-gaffe-as-voters-swing-back-to-government-20220417-p5ae0m.html
Albanese pays a price for bad week as voters swing back to government
By David Crowe
April 17,
2022 — 6.00pm
Labor leader
Anthony Albanese has paid the price for a damaging opening week in the election
campaign after voters cut their support for the opposition from 38 to 34 per
cent while swinging back to Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister.
Primary
support for the Coalition rose from 34 to 35 per cent, and Morrison made gains
on his personal approval and performance on key issues including economic
management and national security.
The first
major survey of the campaign revealed a reversal of fortune for the two
leaders, with Morrison leading Albanese as preferred prime minister by 38 to 30
per cent after the Labor leader held the advantage two weeks ago with a lead of
37 to 36 per cent.
But the
survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Sydney Morning Herald and The
Age, also showed that 27 per cent of people eligible to vote at the May 21
election describe themselves as uncommitted, up from 21 per cent two weeks ago.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/baseless-claims-electoral-commission-sees-rise-in-fake-news-in-lead-up-to-federal-poll-20220417-p5ae0g.html
Baseless claims: Electoral commission sees rise in fake news in lead-up to
federal poll
By Sumeyya Ilanbey
April 17,
2022 — 7.15pm
Talking
points
·
Many of the baseless claims being peddled on
social media were in line with what was being disseminated throughout the 2020
US election.
·
False claims are being circulated online that
Australians need a COVID-19 vaccine to vote.
·
The electoral commission has created a disinformation
register that outlines the most prominent baseless claims.
The
Australian Electoral Commission has reported an increase in the number of
misleading posts on social media in the lead-up to this year’s federal election
compared to 2019, with some candidates making baseless claims about election
fraud and COVID-19.
The
commission has been working closely with social media giants this year to
combat misinformation and disinformation, as liberal democracies around the
world continue to grapple with the surge of fake news turbocharged during the
2020 United States presidential election.
The
commission said many of the baseless claims being peddled on social media were
in line with what was being disseminated throughout the 2020 US election.
It has
referred 22 posts on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and TikTok containing
potential misinformation to social media companies since September, leading to
the removal of three pages and 11 posts, and the suspension of two accounts.
Two of the referrals are still pending, and five instances in which the
platform did not find that its terms of service had been breached.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/defence-in-urgent-need-of-new-weapons-says-key-australian-exporter/news-story/62e2a6dd5a4fe595435a1e3dd49e492f
Defence in ‘urgent need of new weapons’, says key Australian exporter
Ben Packham
April 18,
2022
One of
Australia’s biggest defence exporters says the next federal government needs to
overhaul Defence’s $270bn procurement system to prioritise urgently needed
weapons and equipment over “exquisite” capabilities that take decades to
arrive.
EOS Defence
global chief executive Grant Sanderson said Defence’s 40-year-old acquisition
model was less focused on addressing immediate strategic threats than on
“deploying something that is imperfect”.
EOS is a
leader in space systems, remote weapons systems, and battlefield communications,
earning 95 per cent of its revenue from exports.
Mr Sanderson
said as a Canberra-based company, EOS was committed to the Australian market,
but “inertia” in Defence’s procurement system made it “one of the most
expensive and energy-sapping places in the world to do business”.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/why-funds-management-needs-a-shake-up-20220414-p5adix
Why funds management needs a shake-up
With
endless research on why managers fail to achieve high returns, an appropriate
checklist that encourages challenging views may help.
Giselle Roux Contributor
Apr 18, 2022
– 12.08pm
Industries
learn the hard lesson of accountability when things go astray. There is an
illuminating set of podcasts by Financial Times columnist Tim Harford, Cautionary
Tales, where time and again tales of missed links caused calamities.
A recent
episode on the collapse of a raised walkway summarised the problem. Builders,
architects, structural engineers, suppliers, project managers are all involved.
Mostly they work well together, yet occasionally, there is a glaring slip-up
where a flaw has no true owner.
The concept
has been a standard lesson in hospital emergencies brought to life by Atul
Gawande in his book, The Checklist Manifesto. The title hints at the
solution. Many industries benefit from a set of written edicts that aim to
prevent errors in complex and disparate systems.
Fund
management could do with a dose of rules and a prescriptive process of who
cross-checks the views of another.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/100-000-quit-financial-advice-as-fees-jump-another-8pc-20220418-p5ae5t
100,000 quit financial advice as fees jump another 8pc
Aleks Vickovich Wealth
editor
Apr 18, 2022
– 2.21pm
The median cost
of financial advice services rose by $270 last year to $3529, pushing the
number of professionally advised Australians below 2 million and many consumers
into the hands of unlicensed social media influencers, according to a landmark
annual study.
The Adviser
Ratings 2022 Financial Advice Landscape Report has found the median fees
charged to consumers increased from $3256 to $3529 a year, representing an 8
per cent spike, or 40 per cent over the three years to December 2021. The
estimate includes both scaled-limited and comprehensive-ongoing forms of advice
and would be closer to $5000 a year if restricted to the latter.
The highest
fee detected by the research house was $12,000 and the lowest was $800. The
$273 annual price rise was attributed to increases in the cost of providing
advice due to regulation and diminishing supply as another 4000 advisers, or 16
per cent of the workforce, left the industry last year.
Rapidly
rising costs and diminishing supply have resulted in more than 100,000 clients
over the past year dropping out of their advice services, taking the total
cohort of advised Australians to just 10.1 per cent of the adult population,
down from 13.9 per cent in 2018.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-labor-spend-big-under-the-radar-20220418-p5ae6v
Coalition, Labor spend big under the radar
Andrew Tillett
Political correspondent
Apr 18, 2022
– 7.40pm
The major
parties have made almost $400 million in funding promises and allocations for
dozens of local projects in a guerilla grassroots campaign in just the first
week on the hustings.
Despite heavy
criticism of Prime Minister Scott Morrison over pork barrelling,
tracking by The Australian Financial Review of candidate promises made on
social media channels, but not accompanied by official press releases, shows
the Coalition and Labor have been unbowed with a series of under-the-radar
commitments across 25 seats.
Since the
election was called on April 10, the government has announced at least $110
million in subterranean promises. Labor has made $130 million in similar
commitments but this number swells to $276 million when quickly matched
commitments for government announcements are included.
These pledges
range from as little as $45,000 to repair a local cenotaph in the Tasmanian
seat of Lyons – announced by the PM himself – through to $107.5 million from
the opposition matching a government commitment to bolster Cairns’ water
supply.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/transgender-people-are-pawns-in-a-political-gamble-20220418-p5ae3n
Transgender people are pawns in a political gamble
Labor
believes the Deves issue goes beyond faith-based communities to conservatives
and everyday suburban voters as well.
Phillip Coorey Political
editor
Apr 18, 2022
– 5.54pm
When NSW
Liberal Treasurer Matt Kean demanded over Easter that Scott
Morrison dump Katherine Deves as the Liberal candidate for the northern
Sydney seat of Warringah, there was anger but little surprise among federal
Liberals.
For some
months now, there has been a strong suspicion inside the federal government
that the NSW government wants it to lose the May 21 election, so voters will be
more charitable come the NSW state election in March next year.
Whether it
has been the frequent public clashes over energy policy, or the more recent
and, at times, confected outrage over flood relief funding, Kean has been at
the centre of taking on Morrison and his ministers.
However, to
do so in the midst of an election campaign, when Morrison was riding high
thanks to a poor start by Labor, takes it to another level. Hence, the anger.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/australia-s-lifeline-to-the-us-the-stakes-in-solomon-islands-are-exceptionally-high-20220418-p5ae43.html
Australia’s lifeline to the US’: The stakes in Solomon Islands are
exceptionally high
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
April 19,
2022 — 5.00am
What’s the
big fuss about Solomon Islands? Why is the most senior Indo-Pacific official in
the entire US government making
an urgent 14,000-kilometre trip this week to visit a fly-speck country with
half the population of Adelaide and one tenth its economy?
We know that
the Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare intends to sign a new
security agreement with China. A draft of the secret deal leaked three
weeks ago. It specifies that China would be allowed to send security forces to
Solomons at the request of the Solomons government.
This was a
matter of “grave concern” said New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at
the time. Scott Morrison said that it was indeed “an issue of concern for the
region”.
But, on
Sunday, Australia’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Marise Payne, seemed to suggest
that the problem had been solved. The ABC’s David Speers asked her: “Prime
Minister Sogavare says he is still planning to go ahead with it, he says it
won’t involve a military base. Do you believe him?”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-truth-about-how-much-politicians-can-manage-the-economy-20220418-p5ae44.html
The truth about how much politicians can ‘manage’ the economy
Jessica Irvine
Senior
economics writer
April 19,
2022 — 5.00am
It’s common
during elections for pollsters to inquire of voters which political party they
believe is best placed to “manage the economy”.
Or,
alternatively, which party or leader they believe would best perform the task
of “economic management”.
Invariably,
voters place higher weight on the Coalition’s “economic management” abilities.
But it’s not
clear to me voters entirely understand what question they are being asked here,
and – more problematically – the question itself seems to inherently overstate
the powers politicians actually possess to “manage” economies at all.
Politicians,
of course, do little to educate voters about the true extent of their ability
to manage economies. They are only too keen to claim responsibility for any
positive economic phenomena, such as a low jobless rate, while simultaneously
disclaiming responsibility for any adverse phenomena, such as tepid wages
growth.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/learning-the-war-lessons-of-quad-bikes-and-drones/news-story/ef9b805cb0af7bc274158b49a2f73792
Learning the war lessons of quad bikes and drones
CLIVE WILLIAMS
12:00AM April
19, 2022
Ukraine’s
most effective weapons in the conflict against Russia have been drones, quad
bikes, anti-aircraft, anti-ship and antitank missiles, and sniper rifles.
Ukraine has
been deploying drones for surveillance and attack purposes; these range from
multipurpose Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones with a wingspan of 12m to small,
repurposed hobby store drones. Ukrainian drones using thermal imaging have been
effective in locating and targeting Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles
as well as forward command centres, artillery positions and troop deployments.
At least six
Russian generals have been killed so far, although it’s not clear whether
they’ve been killed by drones, snipers or something else. Ukraine says Russian
forces have been jamming Ukrainian drone links, but the Russians have had to
turn off their jammers to operate their own drones. This has given Ukrainian
forces the opportunity to pinpoint and destroy Russian jammer vehicles before
they can resume jamming.
Quad bikes
cost about $10,000, but they’ve given Ukrainian forces the capability to
conduct hit-and-run operations over boggy terrain against Russian armoured
columns. Small, highly mobile squads with night-vision goggles have operated
off-road at night using small surveillance drones, antitank missiles and sniper
rifles to target Russian lines of communication. Priority targets have been
tanks and fuel vehicles.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/rba-minutes-flag-earlier-rate-hike-due-to-inflation-and-wage-pressures/news-story/d4a4e0538cf24af864fdb726db132293
RBA minutes eye earlier rate hike due to inflation and wage pressures
Tom Dusevic
April 19,
2022
The Reserve
Bank says an expected jump in underlying inflation and looming wage pressures
have brought forward the likely timing of the first increase in interest rates.
In the
minutes of the RBA’s April 5 board meeting, published on Tuesday, the central
bank said that, “for some time, the Board had been communicating that it wanted
to see evidence that inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target
range before increasing interest rates”.
“It had also
been communicating that this was likely to require a faster rate of wages
growth than had been experienced over previous years,” the RBA minutes said.
“Inflation
had picked up and a further increase was expected, with measures of underlying
inflation in the March quarter expected to be above 3 per cent.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/kkr-lobs-20-billion-plus-bid-for-ramsay-diligence-under-way-20220419-p5aemw
KKR lobs $88-a-share bid for Ramsay, diligence under way
Sarah Thompson and Anthony Macdonald
Apr 19, 2022
– 7.53pm
KKR is in
talks to acquire Australia’s biggest private hospital operator, Ramsay Health
Care, in a deal valuing it at more than $20 billion,
Street Talk
can reveal Ramsay is providing KKR with due diligence after the buyout giant
made an indicative and non-binding offer of $88 per share to acquire the
company.
Barrenjoey
Capital Partners and Credit Suisse are advising KKR while UBS is in Ramsay’s
corner.
Sources said
the offer was all cash with an option for some shareholders to potentially roll
their stakes into the deal. Ramsay shares last traded at $64.39.
Ramsay Health
Care’s biggest shareholder, late founder Paul Ramsay’s Ramsay Foundation, is
believed to be supportive of the takeover talks. The Foundation owns a 20 per
cent stake.
A KKR
spokesman declined to comment. KKR is understood to be working as part of a
consortium.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/i-ve-got-the-money-but-how-do-i-actually-start-investing-it-20220211-p59vra
I’ve got the money, but how do I actually start investing it?
Lucy Dean Wealth reporter
Apr 20, 2022
– 7.00am
These days,
it’s nearly impossible to walk two blocks through the CBD without seeing an
advertisement for a new investment platform, a product push from an updated stockbroker,
or hear the benefits of copy trading.
Investing has
become ubiquitous.
Almost
300,000 Australian investors made their first trade in the 12 months to
November 2021, according to
analysis by research firm Investment Trends.
Share trading
platform Superhero estimates more than one in three Australians aged 18-24
began investing in the six months to February 2022, with a similar proportion
of overall investors planning to invest more than $20,000 in 2022.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/leaders-should-hang-their-heads-in-shame-over-solomons-china-deal-20220420-p5aewq.html
Leaders should hang their heads in shame over Solomons-China deal
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
April 21,
2022 — 5.00am
In a few
days, Australia’s leaders will stand solemnly, heads bowed, to honour the
nation’s war dead on Anzac Day. They should hang their heads in shame.
Australians
fought and died to prevent a hostile power from establishing a base in Solomon
Islands in World War II.
Now we
discover that a hostile power has established a political foundation for military patrolling
and a potential base in Solomon Islands.
China has
stolen a march on Australia, a 4000-kilometre advance from its nearest existing
military base, without firing a shot. Merely by signing an agreement with
Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare.
“The fact
that China was first to announce the agreement confirms this is indeed a
historic day in the neocolonisation of the Pacific,” says the head of the ANU
National Security College, Rory Medcalf.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-is-learning-mistakes-can-prove-fatal-whatever-morrison-does-20220420-p5aeo2.html
Albanese is learning mistakes can prove fatal, whatever Morrison does
Niki Savva
Award-winning
political commentator and author
April 21,
2022 — 5.00am
Overlooked in
all the excitement over Anthony Albanese’s shocking start to the election
campaign was how awful it has been for Scott Morrison. Albanese’s mistakes were
spontaneous, damaging and inexcusable. Morrison’s performance was typically
Morrison – disciplined, rehearsed and also damaging.
Morrison was
kept alive, just, thanks to Albanese’s bloopers, a well-targeted budget, an
ability to keep talking confidently while everything crumbles around him and a
few media rat packers determined to even up the contest. Even though they
reeked of workshopping and gotcha, the journalists’ questions to Albanese were
legitimate.
Unable to
spit out the answers, his confidence shattered, he slid into a spiral of
mistakes on costings and border protection triggering saturation coverage.
Whatever Albanese imagined would happen in that first week was obliterated by
the demoralising reality. He had succeeded in taking Morrison to the brink of
destruction only to then inflict harm on himself.
Nothing went
as expected, leading those close to him to recall boxer Mike Tyson’s famous
quote that: “Everyone has a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth.” They
trusted the hits would bring out Albanese’s inner street fighter. They felt
better about the way he began the second week. Helped along by days in
Queensland with his Treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers beside him, Albanese came
out swinging, drawing Morrison into a bare-knuckle slugfest.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/options-narrow-as-china-gains-ground-in-pacific-20220420-p5aesg
Options narrow as China gains ground in Pacific
Australia
has been unable to stop the Solomon Islands signing a security pact with China.
The US is just as alarmed, but also with little impact. What comes now?
Jennifer Hewett
Columnist
Apr 20, 2022
– 4.32pm
Political
outrage – confected, exaggerated and occasionally sincere – about the other
side’s failures is a standard campaign ploy. These days, traditionally
bipartisan topics involving sensitive issues of national security are no longer
exempt.
But Labor’s
condemnation of the failure of the Morrison government to prevent the Solomon
Islands signing a
security agreement with China would sound more persuasive if any other
outcome had been likely or realistic.
It certainly
would have been a clearer demonstration of Australia’s Pacific “step-up” if a
near invisible Foreign Minister Marise Payne had herself stepped up to visit
Honiara rather than leaving it to a last-minute trip by her junior minister.
But that’s very different from suggesting a visit from any Australian
politician – including Scott Morrison – would have prevented Prime Minister
Manasseh Sogavare from signing a lucrative deal with the Chinese.
Australian
officials can’t say so publicly, but this is believed to include China’s
payments to individual politicians as well as promises of investments and other
financial inducements. Short of attempting to match a malignant
model of corruption and interference in another country’s domestic
politics, Australia’s options are much more constrained.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/teal-independents-pick-up-where-the-democrats-left-off-20220420-p5aex5
Teal independents pick up where the Democrats left off
The
Climate 200 candidates running in affluent Liberal seats are a new force. But
in terms of appeal, they are a reheated version of the now defunct Australian
Democrats.
Phillip Coorey Political
editor
Apr 21, 2022
– 10.30pm
It was not so
long ago that Labor fancied its chances of wresting from the Liberal Party the
odd affluent, inner-city electorate.
At the 2007
election, the last time it won government from opposition, Labor had a red-hot
go at both Wentworth, then held by Malcolm Turnbull, and North Sydney, then
held by Joe Hockey, by running high-profile candidates in both.
It failed to
seize either, and since then Labor’s hold on its own such electorates has
waned.
In 2010, it
lost the once-safe seat of Melbourne to the Greens’ Adam Bandt, and the equally
once-safe Hobart seat of Denison, now known as Clark, to independent Andrew
Wilkie. Neither seat is set to return in a hurry.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/chinese-investment-in-australia-plunges-70-per-cent-20220421-p5af59
Chinese
investment in Australia plunges 70 per cent
Michael Smith North Asia
correspondent
Apr 22, 2022
– 12.01am
Tokyo |
Chinese investment in Australia fell 70 per cent last year to lows not seen
since the global financial crisis, as the COVID-19 pandemic and diplomatic
tensions quashed Beijing’s appetite for deals apart from selected acquisitions
in the mining sector.
Chinese firms
invested US$600 million ($808 million) in Australia during the 2021 calendar
year, compared with US$1.9 billion in 2020, an annual study by KPMG and the
University of Sydney Business School found.
Last year was
the latest of five in row of declining Chinese investment in Australia since
2017, when political hostilities first emerged between Beijing and the
then-government of Malcolm Turnbull and the end of a global spending spree by
Chinese companies.
While
Australia still punches above its weight in the level of Chinese investment it
attracts, it is fast losing ground to competitors in Europe and South America.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-deve-ious-tactics-produce-another-failed-character-test-20220421-p5af8f.html
PM’s ‘Deve-ious’ tactics produce another failed character test
Michelle Grattan
Professorial
Fellow, University of Canberra
April 22,
2022 — 10.19am
For months
there has been a great deal of debate about Scott Morrison’s “character”.
Now, in the
controversy over Katherine Deves, the Liberal candidate for Warringah who
Morrison refused
to dump despite a string of offensive social media posts, we have seen the
prime minister fail a significant character test.
Ignoring the
public and private calls by Liberals – not all of them moderates – for Deves to
be disendorsed, Morrison said on Thursday, the day nominations closed, “I’ve
been in contact with Katherine again today, encouraging her”.
Morrison not
only refused to budge, but tried
to turn the argument back on his critics. He condemned “those who are
seeking to cancel Katherine, simply because she has a different view on the
issue of women and girls in sport”, and attacked the “pile on”.
In a
revealing comment he also said, “I think Australians are getting pretty fed up
with having to walk on eggshells every day because they may or may not say
something one day that’s going to upset someone”.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-urgent-calls-for-next-government-to-tackle-medicine-affordability/news-story/64c55f998d15b66cd717b0e058252cd2
Election 2022: Urgent calls for next government to tackle medicine
affordability
Jess Malcolm
12:01AM April
22, 2022
A coalition
of peak medical bodies is calling on the next-elected government to address
medicine affordability, saying the rate of co-payments could reach $50 a
script within the next five years.
The Pharmacy
Guild of Australia, Australian Patients Association, Chronic Pain Australia and
Musculoskeletal Australia have banded together to urge the commonwealth to
address the affordability of prescription medicine, after polling found 30 per
cent of voters said they were struggling to afford medicine under the
Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.
Polling by
the Pharmacy Guild found concern for medicine affordability has jumped six
points since January this year.
The number of
voters skipping medicine entirely has spiked by 17 per cent, with soaring
prices and cost-of-living pressures the key reasons. This is a three-point jump
since January.
The polling
was conducted in 15 marginal electorates, including Flynn, Bowman, Dobell,
Robertson, Reid, Gilmore, Kooyong, Bass, Corangamite, Braddon, Lindsay,
Macquarie, Boothby, Cowan and Swan, sparking concern the issue could be a
seat-swinging issue.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/australia-faces-massive-existential-threat-from-china-20220421-p5af4l
Australia faces massive existential threat from China
With China
militarising the Solomon Islands, we need decisive leadership to protect our
way of life.
Christopher Joye
Columnist
Apr 22, 2022
– 11.03am
The spectre
of Chinese nuclear submarines, destroyers, fighters and bombers based in the
Solomon Islands, merely 1752 kilometres from Australia’s mainland (and closer
than New Zealand), brings the looming
prospect of global conflict right to our doorstep.
Many readers
may not remember that Japan, which today is a key Australian ally, pursued an
almost identical strategy in World War II when it was an adversary. Japan
invaded Malaysia, Singapore, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands,
including the main island of Guadalcanal, where it built an airstrip, called
Henderson Field. This is now Honiara International Airport, which remains the
island’s key runway.
Australia
needs to ramp up full-scale production of the MQ-28A “ghost bat” combat drones,
expand our F-35 fleet, and seek to acquire B-21 stealth bombers.
The Battle of
Guadalcanal (ie Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1943 was the
first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia
and the US, against Japan, resulting in more than 26,000 deaths and the loss of
57 warships and almost 1300 aircraft. The largest-ever Australian warship sunk
in battle, HMAS Canberra, was torpedoed multiple times, claiming 84 souls.
This was
superseded by conflicts between Japan and the Allies in what we now call Papua
New Guinea, which was mostly an Australian territory at the time, in the
Gilbert and Marshall Islands and throughout other Pacific nations and atolls.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/brace-yourself-for-interest-rate-hikes-20220420-p5aeuu
How to prepare for interest rate rises
With the
RBA tipped to start increasing the cash rate from June, this is what homeowners
and credit cardholders need to do now to get ahead.
Lucy Dean Wealth reporter
Updated Apr
22, 2022 – 10.22pm, first published at 5.00am
Borrowers
with $2 million home loans could face mortgage repayment increases of more than
$2000 a month if the Reserve Bank of Australia raises cash rates to 2 per cent
by June next year.
While the RBA
is tipped to start raising rates this June, economists expect more increases
after that – reaching at least 1 per cent by the end of the year.
The COVID-19
pandemic consolidated an era of ultra-low interest rates, but a cascading
series of events including global supply chain crises and now the
Russia-Ukraine war has sent inflation around the world skyrocketing.
The US
Federal Reserve in March raised
its benchmark rate for the first time since 2018, pushing it from 0.25 per
cent to 0.50 per cent. Locally, the RBA recently gave its strongest hint it
will soon move rates.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/political-tribes-are-busily-destroying-political-parties-20220421-p5af1v
Political tribes are busily destroying political parties
Both sides
of politics want to capture a nondescript centre, but those voters are not
interested in the totemic things that drive parties these days.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Apr 22, 2022
– 4.57pm
French
President Emmanuel Macron debated the contender
for his job, Marine Le Pen, on French television this week. For three
hours.
There were
many matters of substance to discuss: significantly at an international level,
the future role of France within the European Union at the very time when the
EU’s potential role as a major security bloc – as opposed to an economic one –
has been revived and is being debated following the Russian invasion of
Ukraine.
There were
questions too about the links to Russia, and specifically Vladimir Putin, of
the far-right-wing Le Pen (who has significantly softened her public positions
to become a more acceptable candidate for the nation’s top job).
There was a
lot more domestic discussion that Australians would recognise: cost of living
pressures, healthcare, pensions, COVID-19, taxes, immigration and climate
change.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/horror-budget-on-the-cards-for-whoever-forms-next-government-20220421-p5af3t.html
Horror budget on the cards for whoever forms next government
George Megalogenis
Columnist
April 23,
2022 — 5.00am
Every voter
with a passing interest in this election campaign should be able to recite the
unemployment rate by now. It is 4 per cent, and falling. They should also be
aware that the Reserve Bank will soon be increasing interest rates, and that
the first increase will come either before polling day, or immediately after it.
These two pieces to the puzzle of the Australian economy are moving in opposite
directions because the snap back from the pandemic recession continues to
exceed expectations. So why is the federal budget keeping consumers, and
business, on life support for another two years?
It is a
question that should have occurred to Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, even
if they have a shared political interest in avoiding the implications before
polling day on May 21. Whoever forms the next government will be confronted
with a structural deficit that cannot be willed away with incantations about
Australia’s world-beating recovery. A horror budget is on the cards at some
point in the next parliament, most likely next year after the winner has
honoured their election commitments.
But before we
even get to that debate, there is the riddle of the never-ending stimulus to
consider. Remember when Josh Frydenberg delivered his first pandemic budget in
October 2020, with its jaw-dropping deficits? The treasurer adopted a two-stage
fiscal strategy to spend whatever it took to drive down unemployment, then step
back to let the market take over once the jobless rate was “comfortably back
under 6 per cent”.
------
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/we-must-and-can-do-more-for-ukraine/news-story/39f271fce85db6a5c90e912a3504647f
We must – and can – do more for Ukraine
Peter Jennings
12:00AM April
23, 2022
The war in
Ukraine has entered a new phase where Russia’s aim over the next few weeks is
to deliver a paper victory for Vladimir Putin to justify a parade on May 9 in
Moscow marking Victory Day, the anniversary of the Nazi surrender in 1945.
There are
reports that a Russian military parade is planned to march through the rubble
of Ukraine’s port city of Mariupol on May 9, where the remaining Ukrainian
forces are fighting to the end, surrounded in the wreckage of the Azovstal
Metallurgical Combine, and pounded by Russian artillery and airstrikes.
Russia is
consolidating its forces in Ukraine’s east. To the extent that they have a
coherent war plan after being defeated in their attempt to take Kyiv, it is to
consolidate their control of the Donbas, the area controlled by Russian proxy
forces since 2014, and establish a land corridor south east to the annexed Crimea.
There is a
second war aim: if Ukraine won’t surrender, then Russia is intent on crushing
its Slavic brothers, applying a scorched-earth policy, demolishing
infrastructure and poisoning whatever support Moscow might once have had in
Europe.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/china-is-coming-to-honiara-and-we-are-singularly-illprepared/news-story/d241283aab23c41c49c6bc8d439dadf5
China menace now on our doorstep, and we are singularly ill-prepared
In this
season of wake-up calls, the Solomons agreement is the loudest. The Chinese
military is coming to the South Pacific — and we may be witnessing a revolution
in our strategic outlook.
By Greg Sheridan
23 April,
2022
The Chinese
military is coming to the South Pacific, and Australia is completely unprepared
to deal with this sobering reality. Unprepared militarily. Unprepared
diplomatically. We may be witnessing a revolution in our strategic outlook.
No one yet
knows precisely what the security
agreement signed between the Chinese government and Manasseh Sogavare’s
Solomon Islands government will lead to, but it is a devastating blow to
Australia’s national interests. No matter how the Morrison government tries to
spin this, the Beijing-Honiara agreement represents a historic failure for
Australian diplomacy and statecraft.
The text of
the agreement is secret. The fact of its being signed was announced by the
Chinese foreign ministry in Beijing. Sogavare says he will not publish the text
without Beijing’s permission. He has promised Scott Morrison and other leaders
in the Pacific, such as Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape, there
will not be a Chinese military base in his country.
For years
Australian intelligence and assessment agencies have held the judgment that
China seriously wants a military base in the South Pacific. Once, Beijing’s
chief South Pacific ambition was to convince the remaining South Pacific
nations that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan to switch to China. It
succeeded in this with Solomon Islands in 2019.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politicsnow-strategic-position-as-dire-as-1930s-dutton/live-coverage/3f67e0cba46898a147b3a7963cf619c5
Strategic position as dire as 1930s': Dutton
DANIEL SANKEY
23 April,
2022
Defence
Minister Peter Dutton has warned the nation to be “prepared for the
inconceivable”, saying he believed China was seeking to turn Australia and
Indo-Pacific nations into tributary states.
In an exclusive interview with The Sunday Telegraph, Mr Dutton
said Australia's strategic position was as “dire” as it was in the lead up to
the Second World War.
“We want a
normalised peaceful relationship with every country, including China. But China
has changed,” Mr Dutton said.
“And it’s
going to take money to respond to that both in terms of additional personnel as
well as investment in technologies and equipment.
“It’s
conceivable that there could be a chemical warfare attack on a capital city of
one of our allies and so could you be drawn back into a conflict in the Middle
East.”
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/election-2022-brendan-oconnor-will-step-on-toes-to-bolster-defence/news-story/621c7a3d82352637aa71480dfe0db23c
Election 2022: Brendan O’Connor will ‘step on toes’ to bolster defence
Ben Packham
5:53PM April
22, 2022
Opposition
defence spokesman Brendan O’Connor says he can’t guarantee he will hold on to
the portfolio if Labor wins government, but if he gets the job he won’t be
afraid to “step on toes” to fast-track the delivery of much-needed weapons.
Mr O’Connor
told The Weekend Australian an Albanese government would overhaul Defence’s
notoriously slow procurement system to get more firepower into service quickly,
warning capability gaps had left the nation exposed.
He said Labor
would fast-track the purchase of new armed drones, not currently on Defence’s
order list, and urgently boost the nation’s missile stocks.
Mr O’Connor
said a promised Labor audit of defence capabilities would focus on delivering
extra firepower “within the next three to five years”. It would also examine
longer-term capability gaps, leaving open the potential for an interim
submarine between the retirement of the Collins-class boats and the arrival of
the AUKUS nuclear-powered subs.
-----
COVID 19 Information
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/unique-on-a-global-scale-nsw-nears-elimination-of-hiv-as-cases-fall-to-record-lows-20220407-p5abld.html
‘Unique on a global scale’: NSW nears elimination of HIV as cases fall to
record lows
By Lucy Carroll and Mary
Ward
April 20,
2022 — 5.00am
NSW reported
its lowest number of new HIV infections on record last year with the goal of
elimination of the virus in the state now “well within reach by 2025”.
The
achievement would make NSW one of the first places in the world to eliminate
HIV before the global target of 2030, public health experts say.
Broad uptake
of preventive treatments and less casual sex during the pandemic were viewed as
reasons for the fall in infections in 2021.
Data released
by NSW Health shows the state recorded a total of 178 new HIV infections last
year, a 36 per cent drop compared to the average over the past five years.
------
Climate Change.
-----
No entries in
this category.
-----
Royal Commissions And The Like.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-due-more-funding-than-defence-we-need-trust-in-ndis/news-story/ff3caa90c1f0efeae618b544df4f80bc
Election 2022: Due more funding than defence, we need trust in NDIS
STEPHEN LUNN
9:05PM April
19, 2022
If Labor
takes office next month and Bill Shorten continues in the NDIS portfolio, as is
his professed wish, he will have his hands on the tiller of one of the
government’s largest spending programs.
Shorten will
have two significant groups of constituents to serve – the 500,000 NDIS
participants, their loved ones, and the workers who care for them, but also,
and crucially, the taxpayer.
By the back
end of an Albanese government’s first term in office, Treasury projects the
cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme to be outstripping defence
spending. Last month’s budget put the projected 2024-25 NDIS spending at
$42.8bn, and just over $46bn the following year.
This is
seriously big coin, and taxpayers are entitled to be sure it is doing what it
is designed to – providing the support people with permanent and significant
disability need.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/pandemic-costs-pushing-nursing-homes-to-the-brink-of-closure/news-story/a21bdc05ea3098be619338cd66610d8f
Pandemic costs pushing nursing homes to the brink of closure
Stephen Lunn
7:08PM April
21, 2022
Dozens of
aged-care homes are on the verge of shutting their doors as the ongoing cost of
protecting residents and staff from the Omicron wave proves unsustainable,
Catholic Health Australia says.
CHA, representing
the largest grouping of aged-care homes in Australia, says financially strapped
facilities can no longer bear the extra costs of trying to prevent the Omicron
strain from entering facilities, and without emergency government support, the
number of Covid-related deaths will rise.
“Around half
the aged-care homes in Australia are only barely able to make ends meet and now
the extra costs associated with this new wave of Covid are going to push them
over the edge,” CHA director of strategy and mission Brigid Meney said.
Shadow
Minister for Aged Care Services Clare O'Neil says Labor is committed to
“crucial reform” to fix the workforce… shortage crisis in the aged care
industry. Ms O’Neil said she hopes the Coalition will provide clarification on
policies concerning nursing homes. “Labor wants to put nurses back in More
-----
National Budget Issues.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/coalitions-home-loan-guarantee-scheme-a-market-distorting-mechanism-designed-to-win-votes/news-story/5f5eb1acb0a776f98e6c46acda420a13
Coalition’s home loan guarantee scheme a market distorting mechanism
designed to win votes
Peter van
Onselen
April 18,
2022
The
Coalition’s home loan guarantee scheme is a classic case of the superficial
winning out over prudent policy development. Good politics trumping good
economics. Just watch as the individuals who have signed up to this scheme
begin to suffer with rising interest rates and falling property prices in the
years ahead.
The bottom
line is that it is a market distorting mechanism designed to win votes, nothing
more. The political equivalent of a popularity contest driving policy
development. With property prices on the rise nationally in recent years, the
Coalition decided to guarantee home loans for new entrants into the housing
market who weren’t able to secure large enough deposits without government
help.
In some cases
participants only need a two per cent deposit to buy a home under the scheme.
Putting to one side the fact that the scheme logically flies in the face of the
banking royal commission recommendations to lift lending standards, in the
inflationary climate we’re now in it is doubly bad policy.
The Coalition
likes to crow about 60,000 Australians having signed up to the scheme, and it
hopes that number will rise with today’s announcement that it is increasing the
size of loans those using the scheme can access. For example, the cap in
Canberra was $500,000 but it is rising to $750,000. In Sydney and major
regional centres it rises from $800,000 to $900,000, taking effect on 1 July
this year.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/deves-revolting-policies-have-no-place-steggall-20220418-p5ae35
Fatter home loan scheme will only push up prices
Andrew Hobbs
Updated Apr
18, 2022 – 11.32am, first published at 8.03am
The enlarged
first home buyer guarantee scheme that will be announced by Scott Morrison
today will only push up prices for homes, Saul Eslake says.
“What schemes
like this do is push up the price of housing essentially by the amount of
additional assistance,” economist Saul Eslake says on ABC TV.
“We have now
in Australia almost 60 years of history that says overwhelmingly convincingly
that anything that allows people to pay more for housing than they otherwise
would ... would result in more expensive housing rather than more people owning
houses.”
Morrison is
due to announce the increase in the scheme that helps first-home buyers make a
purchase with just a 5 per cent deposit
and without having to pay lenders mortgage insurance, Phillip
Coorey reports today.
-----
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/government-funding-costs-shredded-by-bond-sell-off-20220418-p5ae3a
Government funding costs shredded by bond sell-off
Cecile Lefort Markets
reporter
Apr 18, 2022
– 4.07pm
The prospect
of a higher cash rate as the world's central banks try to tame inflation has
shredded the government’s funding cost assumptions on Australia's sovereign
debt, which is poised to balloon to a record high of $1.2 trillion by 2026.
Last week,
the government’s financing arm swiftly raised $15 billion of 11-year bonds
yielding 3.14 per cent, receiving overwhelming demand for the offer. This is
nearly twice the rate of what a similar 11-year bond issue paid last year, and
triple the rate when the pandemic struck.
Government
debt has nearly doubled to stand at $820 billion since the coronavirus emerged.
The sharp increase in funding costs in just a couple of years is the result of
a global trend in the Western world subjected to a sudden rise in living costs
inflamed by the war in Ukraine and its grip on energy prices.
Central banks
in the United States, Canada, New Zealand and the UK have started to increase
their cash rates to rein-in excessive inflation, and Australia is expected to
follow soon.
Economists
and financial markets anticipate the Reserve Bank will lift its record low 0.1
per cent in June, and raise it to around 2 per cent by the end of the year. The
cash rate has not been increased since 2011, when it stood at 4.75 per cent.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/superannuation/are-australia-s-retirees-just-too-good-at-saving-20220413-p5ad9p
Are Australia’s retirees just too good at saving?
There are
concerns the budget extension of lower pension draw-down rates will encourage
better-off retirees to leave their wealth to their family rather than spend it.
Lucy Dean Wealth reporter
Apr 20, 2022
– 5.00am
No one wants
to spend their retirement worrying about money. It’s the motivation that drives
the fundamental purpose of superannuation – to provide income in retirement.
Australians
are pretty good at saving their superannuation, industry members and the
Treasury says. The challenge is encouraging the more wealthy to spend it.
The question
of whether retirees are spending enough in retirement resurfaced when the
government extended
the temporary reduction to minimum superannuation draw-down rates in its
federal budget.
The draw-down
rate is the minimum amount that retirees must take out of their superannuation
every year, and ranges from 4 per cent to 14 per cent depending on the
retiree’s age.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/confront-financially-out-of-control-ndis-or-pay-higher-taxes-20220420-p5aeoa
Confront financially out-of-control NDIS or pay higher taxes
No one
questions the need to support those with disabilities, but the present gigantic
welfare scheme has expanded far beyond the original bipartisan intent.
John Kehoe Economics editor
Apr 20, 2022
– 12.17pm
Whoever wins
the federal election must confront the financially out-of-control National
Disability Insurance Scheme, and an honest and empathetic conversation with the
public and disability sector is required.
Providing a
proper safety net for people with serious disabilities – and relieving their
under-pressure family carers – should be one of the primary roles of
government.
The NDIS is
doing important work assisting people with disability who are often in very
difficult circumstances through no fault of their own. But the NDIS has become
a gigantic welfare scheme and has expanded far beyond the original bipartisan
intent.
The NDIS is
now the desired social security program for participants, more than 18,000
service providers and consultants.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/national-debt-repayments-could-rise-by-billions-as-rates-rise-treasury-20220420-p5aesf.html
National debt repayments could rise by billions as rates rise: Treasury
By Shane Wright and Rachel Clun
April 20,
2022 — 1.39pm
Higher global
interest rates have pushed up the cost of federal government debt by billions
of dollars in the fortnight since the budget was handed down, while the
Treasury Department revealed the budget also contains $54 billion in
unlegislated spending.
In the pre-election
economic and fiscal outlook (PEFO), which is compiled by Treasury and the
Finance Department without input from the government, both departments
confirmed the figures released by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg on March 29.
This year’s
budget deficit is on track to be $79.8 billion, the third-largest in history,
followed by a $77.9 billion deficit in 2022-23. Long term, without changes in
policies, the budget remains in deficit for the rest of the decade and beyond.
Gross debt is
forecast to reach a record $906 billion by the end of this financial year, grow
to $977 billion in 2022-23 and top $1 trillion the following year. The
departments forecast that by 2025-26, gross debt as a share of the economy will
start to fall even though in nominal terms the debt will continue to grow.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/the-grim-imf-news-for-australia-20220420-p5aepz
The grim IMF news for Australia
Australians
are benefiting from the latest surge in property prices, but policymakers
should take note of the International Monetary Fund’s China warning.
Karen Maley Columnist
Apr 21, 2022
– 5.00am
Australian
policy-makers could well be tempted to feel a certain sense of smugness at the
International Monetary Fund’s decision to upgrade the country’s growth outlook
for the year to 4.2 per cent.
Instead, they
should be deeply concerned about the IMF’s deepening anxiety about China –
Australia’s largest trading partner – as Beijing’s drastic measures to contain
COVID-19 are exacerbating the downward spiral in the country’s property market.
Analysts were
pleasantly surprised this week by figures which showed that the world’s second
largest economy grew by 4.8 per cent in the first three months of the year,
compared with a year earlier.
But they
warned that much of this growth occurred in January and February, and that the
figure obscured the
economic slowdown that took place last month as the country has witnessed
the harshest lockdowns since the earliest days of the pandemic in 2020.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/pefo-farce-hides-debt-interest-danger/news-story/9ced8a13d4f93b643856bcd64bdb0ada
PEFO farce hides debt interest danger
Terry McCrann
7:40PM April
21, 2022
It’s not only
home loan borrowers who are going to be singed – the more recent ones, well and
truly burned – by higher interest rates, it’s also going to be the Federal and
indeed all state governments bar got-iron ore lucky WA.
That is to
say, you – all 26m of you; because all government debt is really your debt.
Right now,
every one of you – man, woman, child and even new-born baby – owes around $35k
of federal debt, and it’s going to be going up relentlessly every year, pretty
much forever.
Then add on
the state debt, with the 6.6m Victorians top of the pops thanks to Chairman
Dan’s infrastructure and CO2-emitting concrete megalomania.
Every
Victorian owes another $24k or so, with an ‘update’ coming in two weeks.
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Health Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/how-magic-mushrooms-are-helping-traumatised-veterans-20220417-p5ae0q
How magic mushrooms are helping traumatised veterans
A recently
retired Green Beret had tried antidepressants, therapy and a support dog to
fight depression but none worked as well as psychedelic drugs.
Lindsay
Whitehurst
Apr 17, 2022
– 1.35pm
Salt Lake
City | Matthew Butler spent 27 years in the US Army, but it took a day in jail
to convince him his post-traumatic stress disorder was out of control.
The recently
retired Green Beret had already tried antidepressants, therapy and a support
dog. But his arrest for punching a hole in his father’s wall after his family
tried to stage an intervention in Utah made it clear none of it was working.
“I had a nice
house, I had a great job, whatever, but I was unable to sleep, had frequent
nightmares, crippling anxiety, avoiding crowds,” he said. “My life was a
wreck.”
He eventually
found psychedelic
drugs, and he says they changed his life. “I was able to finally step way
back and go, ‘Oh, I see what’s going on here. I get it now,’” said Butler, now
52. Today his run-ins with police have ended, he’s happily married and
reconciled with his parents.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/crisis-looming-gp-calls-for-help-as-small-band-of-doctors-do-heavy-lifting-on-opioid-treatment-20220415-p5adr6.html
‘Crisis looming’: GP calls for help as small band of doctors do heavy
lifting on opioid treatment
By Chloe Booker
April 16,
2022 — 7.29pm
Talking
points
·
GP warns a crisis looms as young doctors don’t
want to take on patients needing opioid replacement drugs, such as methadone.
·
There has been a 5 per cent jump in the number
of people receiving pharmacotherapy from 2019 to 2021.
·
Just 6 per cent of the 1043 prescribers, mostly
private GPs, see the bulk of the almost 15000 patients.
·
Patients, especially in rural and regional areas,
are often forced to wait weeks or travel hours for treatment.
·
22 GPs who prescribe in large numbers have
either retired or had to dramatically reduce their patient load in the previous
18 months.
A GP
recognised for his work with people who abuse drugs is calling for more doctors
to step up as demand for opioid treatment surges in the pandemic.
Dr Anthony
Michaelson, who is being honoured with an Order of Australia for his service to
the community for his pioneering drug abuse treatment programs, is one of a
dwindling number of GPs who prescribes medication to treat opioid addiction in
high numbers in Victoria.
“Almost all
[opioid replacement treatment] prescribing has been done by ageing GPs such as
myself,” he said. “Young doctors want nothing to do with addiction medicine.
There is a crisis looming.”
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/healthcare-promises-that-just-can-t-be-kept-20220419-p5aebc
Healthcare promises that just can’t be kept
Neither
the Coalition nor Labor can go on pretending that health spending is
sustainable in its present form.
Terry Barnes Contributor
Apr 19, 2022
– 3.13pm
It is a
truth, universally acknowledged, that Australian government healthcare funding
is at record levels. Scott Morrison and the Coalition boast about it. Anthony
Albanese and Labor promise still more.
But, of
course, it is. As the Australian population continues to grow, and a higher
proportion of our population reaches the high-use stage of their lives, the
healthcare system must keep pace.
Furthermore,
almost all government attention for the past two years has been on the COVID-19
pandemic, wider healthcare reform and innovation being largely shunted aside
for the duration. Healthcare reform may have been suspended, but the politics
of health has not.
Predictably,
health and Medicare are major election issues.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/in-sickness-and-in-wealth-why-healthcare-is-the-new-black-for-investors-20220420-p5aes4.html
In sickness and in wealth: why healthcare is the new black for investors
Elizabeth Knight
Business
columnist
April 20,
2022 — 3.19pm
It is no
coincidence that the two biggest buyout deals in Australian history — the
takeover of Sydney
Airport and now the proposal to buy the country’s largest private hospital
group Ramsay Health — were developed during the fog of COVID.
The $20 billion proposed
offer for Ramsay from private equity giant KKR which was confirmed on
Wednesday was the culmination of a courting ritual between the parties spanning
more than a year.
Sydney
Airport was similarly stalked, in that case by a consortium of superannuation
investors that had been working behind the scenes for a couple of years.
Healthcare
and airports rank high among the sectors negatively affected by two-plus years
of COVID measures that limited their profitability. But after the lull comes
the bounceback, in which frustrated demand can lead to a surge in revenue when
facilities are reopened.
The COVID
disruptions are clearly still affecting Ramsay Health’s earnings, and
additional costs around staffing and procurement will roll into the second half
of the year.
-----
https://www.afr.com/street-talk/csl-s-new-us4-billion-debt-raise-breaks-records-20220421-p5af0i
CSL’s new $US4b debt raise breaks records
Yolanda Redrup, Sarah Thompson, Kanika Sood and Anthony Macdonald
Apr 21, 2022
– 9.57am
Blood
products giant CSL has issued the longest-dated senior bond ever by an
Australian or New Zealand corporate, financial or government borrower, as part
of its $US4 billion debt raise to help fund its $16.4 billion acquisition of
Vifor Pharma.
The company
announced the pricing of the raise on Thursday morning, split into six $US500
million and $US1 billion chunks.
The $US4
billion is the largest single-currency debt capital markets transaction from an
Australian or New Zealand corporation, according to a note from Citi.
CSL’s first
debt tranche comes with a five-year fixed coupon of 3.85 per cent, but if
you’re willing to wait decades to be paid back, the sixth $US500 million
tranche comes with a 40-year coupon of 4.95 per cent.
By 2062, CSL
will be a very different company and neither CEO Paul Perreault, nor its
respected chairman Dr Brian McNamee will be gracing the biotech’s halls.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/ramsay-may-grow-rather-than-shrink-under-kkr/news-story/309c9a74628a340eb28a435dc0551ca7?
Ramsay may grow rather than shrink under KKR
Jared Lynch
1:53PM April
22, 2022
Ramsay Health
Care has one thing that separates it from smaller rivals that have found
themselves taken over by private equity: stability.
It is not a
broken business and the group’s stable management is its most-prized asset and
why under potential KKR ownership it may grow rather than shrink.
Ramsay
chairman Michael Siddle joined the company in 1968 and became a founding
director in 1975.
Meanwhile
Carmel Monaghan, its Australian hospitals chief executive, has held various roles
at the group since 1998.
This steady
hand has seen Ramsay grow to become Australia’s biggest private operator, with
extensive operations in the UK, Europe and Asia and created what is known as
the “Ramsay platform”, which is attractive to KKR.
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/the-west-s-arsenal-of-democracy-is-stretched-at-crucial-moment-20220417-p5adz3
The West’s ‘arsenal of democracy’ is stretched at crucial moment
Massive
arms supplies to Ukraine are depleting Western armories just as governments
fear they may need weapons for their own defence.
Hal Brands
Apr 17, 2022
– 8.51am
America is
following an “arsenal of democracy” strategy in Ukraine: It has avoided direct
intervention against the Russian invaders, while working with allies and
partners to provide the Kyiv government with money and guns.
That
strategy, reminiscent
of US support for Britain in 1940-41, has worked wonders. Yet as the war
reaches a critical stage, with the Russians preparing to consolidate their grip
on eastern Ukraine, the arsenal of democracy is being depleted.
That could
cause a fatal shortfall for Ukrainian forces in this conflict, and it is
revealing American weaknesses that could be laid bare in the next great-power
fight.
Of all the
support the US and its friends have provided Ukraine, arms have mattered the
most. Deliveries of drones, antitank and anti-aircraft weapons, ammunition and
other capabilities have helped Ukraine wreak havoc on Russian forces even as
Moscow has pummeled the country’s industrial base.
Gen. Mark
Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that the
West has delivered 60,000 antitank weapons and 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons to
Kyiv. The Pentagon is now laying plans to rush additional artillery, coastal
defence drones and other materiel to Ukraine. The White House on Wednesday
announced a new $800 million package including helicopters and armoured
personnel carriers.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/he-envisioned-a-nightmarish-dystopian-russia-now-it-s-reality-20220417-p5adzz
He envisioned a nightmarish, dystopian Russia. Now it’s reality
Alexandra
Alter
Apr 17, 2022
– 12.54pm
Over the past
40 years, Vladimir Sorokin’s work has punctured nearly every imaginable
political and social taboo in Russia.
His novel
Blue Lard, which features a graphic sex scene between clones of Josef Stalin
and Nikita Khrushchev, drew a criminal investigation over charges that he was
selling pornography. Pro-Kremlin activists accused him of promoting cannibalism
and tried to ban his novella Nastya, a grisly allegory about a girl who is
cooked and eaten by her family. Protesters placed a giant sculpture of a toilet
in front of the Bolshoi Theatre and threw his books in it, a fecal metaphor
that Sorokin said reminded him of “one of my own stories”.
With every
attack, Sorokin has only grown bolder, and more popular.
“A Russian
writer has two options: Either you are afraid, or you write,” he said in an
interview last month. “I write.”
Sorokin is
widely regarded as one of Russia’s most inventive writers, an iconoclast who
has chronicled the country’s slide toward authoritarianism, with subversive
fables that satirise bleak chapters of Soviet history, and futuristic tales
that capture the creeping repression of 21st-century Russia. But despite his
reputation as both a gifted postmodern stylist and an unrepentant troublemaker,
he remains relatively unknown in the West. Until recently, just a handful of
his works had been published in English, in part because his writing can be so
challenging to translate, and so hard to stomach. Now, four decades into his
scandal-scorched career, publishers are preparing to release eight new
English-language translations of his books.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/a-bitter-fight-is-likely-to-follow-russia-s-looming-default-20220417-p5ae1e
A bitter fight is likely to follow Russia’s looming default
Alan
Rappeport
Apr 17, 2022
– 3.46pm
Russia is
ambling toward a major default on its foreign debt, a grim milestone that it
has not seen since the Bolshevik Revolution more than a century ago and one
that raises the prospect of years of legal wrangling and a global hunt by
bondholders for Russian assets.
The looming
default is the result of sanctions that have immobilised about half of Russia’s
$US640 billion of foreign currency reserves, straining the country’s ability to
make bond repayments in the currency in which the debt was issued: US dollars.
Girding for a default, Russia has already preemptively dismissed it as an
“artificial” result of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies,
and it has threatened to contest such an outcome in court.
The coming
fight, which would probably pit Russia against big investors from around the
world, raises murky questions over who gets to decide if a nation has actually
defaulted in the rare case where sanctions have curbed a country’s ability to
pay its debts.
Russia does
not appear likely to take the declaration of a default lightly. If that should
occur, it would raise Russia’s cost of borrowing for years to come and
effectively lock it out of international capital markets, weighing on an
economy that is already expected to contract sharply this year. It would also
be a stain on the economic stewardship of President Vladimir Putin that would
underscore the costs Russia is incurring from its invasion of Ukraine.
-----
https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/why-the-us-dollar-dominates-20220417-p5ae1h
Why the US dollar dominates
Is the US
dollar about to lose its special dominant role in the world financial system?
People have been asking that question for my entire professional career.
Paul Krugman Contributor
Apr 17, 2022
– 4.04pm
Is the US
dollar about to lose its special dominant role in the world financial system?
People have been asking that question for my entire professional career.
Seriously: I published my first paper on the subject in 1980.
A lot has
changed in the world since I wrote that paper — notably, the creation of the
euro and the rise of China. Yet the answer remains the same: probably not. For
different reasons — political fragmentation in Europe, autocratic caprice in
China — neither the euro nor the yuan is a plausible alternative to the dollar.
Also, even if
the greenback’s dominance erodes, it won’t matter very much.
What do we
mean when we talk about dollar dominance? Economists traditionally assign three
roles to money. It’s a medium of exchange: I don’t give economics lectures in
payment for groceries; I get paid in dollars to lecture and use those dollars
to buy food. It’s a store of value: I keep dollars in my wallet and my bank
account. And it’s a “unit of account”: Salaries are set in dollars; prices are
listed in dollars; mortgage payments are specified in dollars.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russia-says-all-urban-areas-of-mariupol-cleared-of-ukrainian-forces-20220417-p5adyh.html
Russia orders Mariupol defenders to surrender or die as port bombarded
By Pavel
Polityuk
Updated April
17, 2022 — 6.01pmfirst published at 4.40am
Talking
points
·
Russia’s defence ministry has ordered the last
Ukrainian fighters left in Mariupol to lay down their arms from 6am, Kyiv
time.
·
Conquering Mariupol would be Russia’s most
significant victory of the invasion. The last Ukrainian fighters are now
surrounded at the Azovstal steelworks.
·
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says
there will be no further peace talks if Ukrainians are “eliminated”.
·
Oligarch Roman Abramovich has arrived in Kyiv to
continue peace talks on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
·
Russia has escalated attacks on Kyiv, Kharkiv
and even the western city of Lviv, in the wake of the sinking of the warship
Moskva.
Lviv:
Russia’s defence ministry has ordered the last Ukrainian defenders left in
Mariupol to surrender in order to save their lives.
The
Ukrainians defending the city’s Azovstal steel works were told they had to lay
down their weapons after 6am on Sunday, Kyiv time, and surrender and become
prisoners of war - or be eliminated in a last stand among the ruins.
Airstrikes
and preparations for a naval landing by Russian forces in Mariupol appear to be
under way, according to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/putin-ukraine-and-the-revival-of-the-west-20220418-p5ae67
Putin, Ukraine and the revival of the West
Vladimir
Putin says the Western liberal model is a proven failure. Xi Jinping’s mantra
has been that the West is in decline. Both may have spoken too soon.
Gideon Rachman
Columnist
Apr 18, 2022
– 1.58pm
Paris | Two
photos taken during the Ukraine crisis seem to sum up the relative positions of
Russia and the Western alliance.
The first is
of Vladimir Putin at his now famous long table – his physical distance from
visiting leaders symbolising Russia’s isolation. The second image is of Joe
Biden in the middle of a group of NATO leaders – with the US president
surrounded by friends and allies.
Amid all the
horror of the war in Ukraine, some in the US and Europe have spotted a silver
lining in the revival of the Western alliance. Ivo Daalder, a former US
ambassador to NATO, captured the new mood in a recent co-authored article, with
James Lindsay, headlined: Why Putin underestimated the West.
The speed,
strength and unity of the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
surprised the Kremlin, as Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, has
admitted. It may even have surprised Western leaders.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/war-and-stagflation-threaten-global-economy-as-pandemic-recovery-slows-20220418-p5ae7b
War and stagflation threaten global economy as pandemic recovery slows
Chris Giles
Apr 18, 2022
– 1.22pm
London | The
twin perils of slowing growth and high inflation, or
stagflation, will hit the global economy this year as Russia’s war against Ukraine
exacerbates a slowdown in the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, according
to Financial Times research.
Mounting
price pressures, slipping output expansion and sagging confidence will all pose
a drag for most countries, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index.
As a result,
policymakers will be left with “grim quandaries”, said Eswar Prasad, senior
fellow at the Brookings Institution.
The IMF is
this week expected to downgrade its forecasts for most countries as finance
ministers and central bankers convene at the spring meetings of the fund and
the World Bank to discuss how to respond to the darkening economic outlook.
Policymakers
must work out how to address rapidly rising prices and the dangers of raising
interest rates when debt levels are already high.
Kristalina Georgieva,
IMF managing director, on Thursday (Friday AEST) called the war in Ukraine a
“massive setback” for the global economy.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/russians-begin-eastern-ukraine-offensive-zelensky-20220419-p5aeay
Russians begin eastern Ukraine offensive: Zelensky
Apr 19, 2022
– 6.34am
Key Points
·
Lviv hit, at least seven civilians killed
·
Mariupol siege constrains Russia troop
deployment
·
German bosses, union oppose boycott of Russian
gas
Lviv, Ukraine
| Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says the Russians have begun their
offensive to take control of eastern Ukraine.
“Now we can
already state that the Russian troops have begun the battle for the Donbas, for
which they have been preparing for a long time,” he announced on Monday
(Tuesday AEST) in a video address.
He said a
“significant part of the entire Russian army is now concentrated on this
offensive”.
He vowed: “No
matter how many Russian troops are driven there, we will fight. We will defend
ourselves. We will do it every day.”
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/war-in-ukraine-talking-to-vladimir-putin-useless-waste-of-time-says-italian-pm-mario-draghi/news-story/670ae72f574bbba7bd866b7542d016be
War in Ukraine: Talking to Vladimir Putin ‘useless, waste of time’, says
Italian PM Mario Draghi
By Philip
Willan
The Times
5:33PM April
18, 2022
The Italian
Prime Minister has justified sending arms to Ukraine and acknowledged that
efforts by Western leaders to talk to Vladimir Putin have proved useless.
Mario Draghi
said Italy’s decision to send weapons had received almost unanimous support in parliament.
“The terms of
the question are clear: on one side is a people who have been attacked; on the
other, an aggressor army,” he said in an interview published by the newspaper
Corriere della Sera.
Mr Draghi
said sanctions were essential but were not sufficient to halt Russia’s troops
in the short term.
“We have to
help the Ukrainians directly and that is what we are doing,” he said, in his
first interview with an Italian newspaper since taking office 14 months ago.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/in-the-event-of-armageddon-desperately-seek-kelp/news-story/d494f4fb71fb06aca2da01879686c840
In the event of Armageddon, desperately seek kelp
By Tom
Whipple
The Times
April 19,
2022
First the bad
news: a nuclear conflict has occurred, killing hundreds of millions and
throwing enough soot into the air to block out the sun for a decade.
Now the good
news: there is a chance we can get through the resulting years of endless
winter without the survivors starving. But it’s going to involve a lot of
seaweed, the mass relocation of crops and extracting sugar from paper.
An
international academic collaboration has produced a road map for surviving an
“abrupt sunlight reduction scenario”. After an asteroid impact, a huge volcanic
eruption or an exchange of nuclear weapons, most of the deaths could well come
not from the catastrophe itself, but as a result of the mass starvation that
follows crop failures.
Even a
relatively minor eruption, such as that of Krakatoa, put enough soot in the air
to cause 1883 to be called the “year without a summer”. What if there were two,
three or five years without a summer? Is starvation inevitable?
Not, a new
paper contends, if we prepare well enough. With sufficient global co-operation
it is possible, the authors argue, to keep the flame of civilisation burning.
“We’re trying
to promote preparedness – a culture of having institutions, government and
companies prepared for a kind of global catastrophe that has been quite
neglected,” said Juan Garcia Martinez, from the Alliance to Feed the Earth in
Disasters, which works with scientists around the world.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/beijing-claims-a-role-as-shaper-of-the-postwar-pacific-order-20220418-p5ae4v
Beijing claims a role as shaper of the postwar Pacific order
The
history of World War II has become the latest front line between Washington and
Beijing, as China asserts its role as a victor and traditional hegemon in the
Pacific.
James Curran
Apr 18, 2022
– 12.28pm
As strategic
competition between the United States and China intensifies, a new dimension of
conflicting views is opening up among scholars, historians and strategic
analysts in Washington and Beijing.
This is the
opposing views of China and America on World War II and the meaning for each. A
crescendo of interpretation in new books, articles and various arms of
propaganda will recount these differences all the way to the centenary in 2039
of the beginning of the European war and the preceding years when China
remembers its lonely struggle against Japan.
Much more is
at stake here than rhetoric or the culture of commemoration. It is about claims
to leadership in the new world order.
For the
United States, its role in liberating Europe and defeating Japan in the Pacific
has long provided the moral foundation for its creation of the postwar
international system.
According to
Elizabeth D Samet, professor of English at West Point and author of Looking for
the Good War (2021), memories of the experience now burden American thinking
about how it goes to war.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/why-china-and-russia-are-both-now-struggling-20220419-p5aeez
Why China and Russia are both now struggling
Moscow
overreached on Ukraine and Beijing on COVID-19, and now they’re paying for
their hubris.
Thomas Friedman
Contributor
Apr 19, 2022
– 1.24pm
The last
decade looked like a good one for authoritarian regimes and a challenging one
for democratic ones.
Cybertools,
drones, facial recognition technology and social networks seemed to make
efficient authoritarians even more efficient and democracies increasingly
ungovernable.
The West lost
self-confidence – and both Russian and Chinese leaders rubbed it in, putting
out the word that these chaotic democratic systems were a spent force. And then
a totally unexpected thing happened: Russia and China each overreached.
Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine
and, to his surprise, invited an indirect war with NATO and the West. China
insisted that it was smart enough to have its own local solution to a pandemic,
leaving millions of
Chinese under-protected or unprotected and, in effect, inviting a war with
one of Mother Nature’s most contagious viruses – the omicron mutation of
SARS-CoV-2. It has now led China to lock down all of Shanghai and parts of 44
other cities, 370 million people.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/america-s-debt-truck-is-heading-for-a-stagflationary-crash-20220419-p5aebd
America’s debt truck is heading for a stagflationary crash
The US has
escaped recurring crises by ratcheting up its debts. Inflating its way out of
trouble is not really an option.
Adrian
Blundell-Wignall Economist
Apr 19, 2022
– 5.33pm
Stagflation
or a cycle of boom and bust are both plausible outcomes for the US economy,
depending on what the Federal Reserve does in future. What is entirely
implausible is the recently released Biden adminstration’s budget outlook:
where very low interest rates continue, inflation falls quickly and
unemployment remains low.
Markets will
have a lot to swallow if they are to end their habitual complacency.
The main
elements of the Biden budget scenario are shown in the chart. The primary
deficit (that before paying interest) moves back from its COVID-19 2021 level
to 4.4 per cent of GDP this year, to the 3 per cent in 2023 and towards 2 per
cent thereafter. The Fed might be behind the curve, but the current budget
interest rate outlook is well behind even that of the Fed: the three-month Treasury
bill this year is 20 basis points, 90 in 2023, and eventually reaching 2.25 per
cent.
The Fed’s
“dot plot” outlook is higher in the near term (see chart), even before Fed vice
chairman Lael Brainard’s more
hawkish comments earlier this month. Despite very easy monetary policy,
inflation (the GDP deflator) declines to 3.3 per cent this year, 2.1 per cent
in 2023 and 2 per cent thereafter. All this occurs while unemployment in the US
remains under 4 per cent.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/us-says-russia-has-lost-25pc-of-combat-power-20220420-p5aene
US says
Russia has lost 25pc of combat power
The
Associated Press
Apr 20, 2022
– 5.57am
Key Points
·
Russia’s renewed offensive in the Donbas region
has begun in a limited way: US
·
Germany says it will seek to get more weapons to
Ukraine
·
British officials say the next phase of the war
is likely to be “an attritional conflict” that could last several months.
Russia is
assaulting cities and towns across Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland in
what both sides call a new phase of the war after losing about 25 per cent of
the combat power it sent into Ukraine, according to Pentagon estimates.
Capturing the
mostly Russian-speaking Donbas region would give President Vladimir Putin a
badly needed victory, slicing Ukraine in two and depriving it of key industrial
assets.
The Russian
Defence Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said air-launched
missiles destroyed 13 Ukrainian troop and weapons locations while artillery hit
1,260 Ukrainian military facilities and 1,214 troops concentrations over the
last 24 hours.
The claims
could not be independently verified.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/how-to-deter-nuclear-war-in-ukraine/news-story/22324094628bfaf7147afc0894af0539
How to deter nuclear war in Ukraine
Robert C.
O’Brien
7:28AM April
20, 2022
The most
sobering briefing I received as White House national security adviser came on
my third day in office, Sept. 20, 2019. I sat in the Situation Room with
military officers and ran through the what-ifs and procedures for continuity of
government and retaliation options in the event of a nuclear attack on the U.S.
or one of our treaty allies.
The idea that
in 2022, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council would use
nuclear weapons to conquer a neighbouring country is unthinkable. Yet here we
are. For months, Russian officials and commentators have been rattling their
nuclear saber and touting Moscow’s doctrine of “escalating to de-escalate” - in
other words, if Russia is losing a war, even one it started, it reserves the
right to use a nuclear attack to end it.
Today, after
nearly two months of heavy combat in Ukraine, Russia appears to be losing. The
dramatic sinking of the Moskva, flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, is
only the latest setback to befall Vladimir Putin’s forces. With dark irony, a
commentator on Russian state-controlled media denounced the sinking as an act
of war and urged Moscow to “bomb Kyiv” in response.
If Ukrainian
forces push Russia out of the Donbas and even Crimea, there would be no way for
Mr. Putin to hide Russia’s humiliating loss from its people. If such an outcome
became likely, would he use one of his thousands of “tactical” or “battlefield”
nuclear devices to take out Kharkiv, Odessa or even Kyiv in an attempt to save
face and end the war on terms he dictates? This possibility is surely on the
minds of President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and his
staff.
-----
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/ian-bremmer-counts-the-cost-of-the-war-to-vladimir-putin/21808839
By Invitation | Russia and
Ukraine
Ian Bremmer counts the cost of the war to Vladimir Putin
The political
scientist predicts that an ugly conflict is about to get uglier
Apr 19th 2022
THE OUTCOME
of Russia’s war in Ukraine remains in doubt. But there is no question that
Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a large-scale invasion is one of the worst
strategic decisions any leader of a powerful country has made in decades. There
is no plausible outcome in Ukraine that won’t leave Mr Putin and Russia far
worse off than before February 24th, when the war began.
Mr Putin has
cost his country the lives of thousands of young soldiers, some of them
conscripts. He claims that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people,” but his
war has given Ukraine a stronger sense of national identity than it’s ever had
before and transformed it into Russia’s bitter enemy. He has shown the world
that his army is ineffectual, and that billions of dollars spent on modernising
Russia’s military has been wasted. He has given NATO a sense of unity and
purpose it hasn’t had in decades and non-members like Finland and Sweden new
reasons to join. His actions have driven members including Germany to boost
defence spending. Others have dispatched troops close to Russia’s border. Mr
Putin has convinced Europe that it must stop buying Russia’s most valuable
exports. He has brought sanctions and export controls on his country that will
inflict generational damage. For Europe and America he has crossed the Rubicon.
Most grievously, he failed to prepare the Russian public for the true human,
financial and material costs of his “special military operation.”
Jokes about
Russian vaccines and long tables aside, a primary cause of Mr Putin’s
miscalculation must surely be his personal isolation. He appears no longer to
listen to opposing points of view. How else could he have believed his army
could capture Kyiv in two weeks? (The former president of the European
Commission, José Manuel Barroso, says Mr Putin bragged as much to him in 2014.)
How could Mr Putin have thought that Ukrainians would quickly surrender once
the invasion began? In response to Ukraine’s invasion, threats to cut off
European energy supplies and other “consequences you have never seen”, Mr Putin
appears to have expected the West to do little more than it did when Russia
seized Crimea eight years ago. He did not anticipate that America would so
quickly render a large portion of his foreign-exchange reserves functionally
useless.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/macron-le-pen-clash-on-russia-eu-in-angry-tv-debate-20220421-p5af07
Macron, Le Pen clash on Russia, EU in angry TV debate
Ingrid
Melander, Elizabeth Pineau and Tassilo Hummel
Apr 21, 2022
– 8.41am
Paris |
French President Emmanuel
Macron on Wednesday accused his far-right rival Marine Le Pen of being in
thrall to Russian President Vladimir Putin over a years-old Russian bank loan
to her party during a fiery TV debate ahead of Sunday’s election.
While he also
charged Ms Le Pen with harbouring an undiminished desire to pull France out of
the European Union, she struck back with a pledge to put money back in the
pockets of millions of French made poorer during his five-year presidency.
The debate -
their only one of the campaign - was peppered with appeals of “don’t interrupt
me” and accusations the other was not up to the job of leading France, a
veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and Europe’s second-largest economy.
“Stop mixing
everything up,” a combative Mr Macron told Ms Le Pen during one heated exchange
about France’s debt, which like others has swollen due to pandemic support
measures.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/nobel-laureate-ramos-horta-set-to-reclaim-east-timor-presidency-20220420-p5aep6.html
Nobel laureate Ramos-Horta reclaims East Timor presidency
By Chris Barrett
Updated April
21, 2022 — 11.03amfirst published April 20, 2022 — 4.04pm
Singapore: A
decade after being unseated, Jose Ramos-Horta is headed back to East Timor’s
presidential palace where he will be in charge of resolving the country’s
bitter political feud.
The Nobel
Peace laureate and former president romped to victory in a run-off vote against
incumbent President Francisco “Lu Olo” Guterres, securing 62.09 per cent of
votes, according to preliminary election agency data.
“The results
don’t surprise me and my main supporters, given the level of support given to
my campaign in the whole country and our own polls in the last few months, even
at township level,” he told Portuguese news agency Lusa.
Ramos-Horta,
who was president between 2007 and 2012, had been only 30,000 votes short of
claiming a decisive majority in last month’s presidential election first round
in which Guterres and 14 other candidates were on the ballot.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/kremlin-insiders-alarmed-over-growing-toll-of-putins-war-in-ukraine-20220421-p5af47.html
Kremlin insiders alarmed over growing toll of Putin’s war in Ukraine
April 21,
2022 — 3.34pm
Almost eight
weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, with military losses
mounting and Russia facing unprecedented international isolation, a small but
growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning his decision
to go to war.
The ranks of
the critics at the pinnacle of power remain limited, spread across high-level
posts in government and state-run business. They believe the invasion was a
catastrophic mistake that will set the country back for years, according to 10
people with direct knowledge of the situation. All spoke on condition of
anonymity, too fearful of retribution to comment publicly.
So far, these
people see no chance the Russian president will change course and no prospect
of any challenge to him at home. More and more reliant
on a narrowing circle of hardline advisers, Putin has dismissed attempts by
other officials to warn him of the crippling economic and political cost, they
said.
Some said
they increasingly share the fear voiced by US intelligence officials that Putin could turn to a
limited use of nuclear weapons if faced with failure in a campaign he views
as his historic mission.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/world-bank-and-imf-need-major-reboot-us-treasury-s-janet-yellen-says-20220422-p5afax.html
World Bank and IMF need major ‘reboot’, US Treasury’s Janet Yellen says
By David
Lawder and Andrea Shalal
April 22,
2022 — 8.09am
US Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen and a top White House adviser called for major reforms
at the World Bank on Thursday, saying the seven-decade-old multilateral
development bank was not built to address multiple and overlapping global
crises.
Yellen told
reporters that both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were not
designed to handle the multiple global crises they now face, including fallout
from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, and they lack the
resources to tackle climate change.
Yellen said
the IMF, which has about $US1 trillion ($1.35 trillion) in total lending
resources, was intended to help individual countries deal with isolated crises,
while the World Bank was created to finance development projects in countries
that lacked access to capital markets.
“We face
challenges that will now require investment on a scale that an international
institution can’t manage on its own, like climate change,” Yellen said. “The
investments for climate change will add up to just trillions and trillions of
dollars.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/hunger-and-blackouts-are-just-the-start-of-an-emerging-economy-crisis-20220421-p5af1l.html
Hunger and blackouts are just the start of an emerging economy crisis
By Shawn
Donnan, Eric Martin, Andrew Rosati and Jihen Laghmari
April 21,
2022 — 11.15am
A barrage of
shocks is building that’s unlike anything emerging markets have had to confront
since the 1990s, when a series of rolling crises sank economies and toppled
governments.
Turmoil
triggered by rising food and energy prices is already gripping countries like
Sri Lanka, Egypt, Tunisia and Peru. It risks turning into a broader debt
debacle and yet another threat to the world economy’s fragile recovery from the
pandemic.
Compounding
the danger is the most aggressive monetary tightening campaign the Federal
Reserve has embarked on in two decades. Rising US interest rates mean a jump in
debt-servicing costs for developing nations — right after they borrowed billions
to fight COVID-19 — and tend to spur capital outflows. And on top of it all:
the stark reality that war in Europe, which is driving the latest food and
energy shock, shows few signs of ending.
The cocktail
of risks has already pushed Sri Lanka to the brink of default on its bonds. A
handful of other emerging economies, from Pakistan and Tunisia to Ethiopia and
Ghana, are in immediate danger of following suit, according to Bloomberg
Economics.
Of course,
the developing world’s commodity exporters stand to benefit from higher prices.
Still, there are other troubles brewing, with a new COVID-19 outbreak locking
down key cities in China, and growing angst that Europe and the US will fall
into recession.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-world-s-food-system-is-too-dependent-on-wheat-20220422-p5afa8.html
The world’s food system is too dependent on wheat
By Jessica
Fanzo
April 22,
2022 — 11.15am
Stunned by
Russia’s assault on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling
to diversify its energy supply — from piped Russian gas to liquified natural
gas, more renewable power and nuclear power.
In the same
way, and for much the same reason, the ongoing war should push countries to
shift and diversify their food supply — to make it more secure and, at the same
time, improve nutrition worldwide.
Russia and
Ukraine together supply 30 per cent of the world’s wheat. This is why the war
has caused wheat prices to skyrocket, along with the prices of many other food
commodities. From February to March, the UN Food and Agriculture Association’s
Food Price Index leapt 12.6 per cent to an all-time high. This threatens people
around the world with unprecedented food insecurity.
It also
highlights the need to reform the global food system, which now leaves too many
people dependent for nourishment on just a handful of mass-produced grains,
including wheat, rice and corn.
-----
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/dow-sheds-near-800-points-as-rate-jitters-trigger-broad-selling-20220423-p5afjo
Dow plunges near 1000 points as rate jitters trigger broad selling
Timothy Moore Online
editor
Apr 23, 2022
– 4.47am
Shares fell
broadly in New York, with materials and health care leading all 11 of the
S&P 500’s industry sectors lower as investors surrendered to the prospect
of a series 50-bais-point rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
At the close,
the Dow was down 981 points or 2.8 per cent. The S&P 500 was 2.8 per cent
lower and the Nasdaq had shed 2.6 per cent.
In New York:
BHP -4.9% Rio -2.9 Atlassian -3.4%
Tesla -0.4%
Apple -2.8% Alphabet -4.3% Amazon -2.7%
“After years
of being very accommodative, the Fed has made it clear that policy is going to
be tighter for the foreseeable future,” said Brian Price, head of investment
management for Commonwealth Financial Network, and that’s giving investors
reason to rethink positions.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/ukraine-russians-shift-elite-units-to-the-new-battleground-20220423-p5afk2
Ukraine: Russians shift elite units to the new battleground
David Keyton
and Yesica Fisch
Apr 23, 2022
– 8.57am
Kyiv | Russia
shifted a dozen crack military units from the shattered port of Mariupol to
eastern Ukraine and pounded away at cities across the region, Ukrainian
authorities said, as the two sides hurtled toward what could be an epic battle
for control of the country’s industrial heartland.
Meanwhile,
Russia reported that one serviceman was killed and 27 others were left missing
after the fire on board the warship Moskva, which sank a week ago following
what the Ukrainians boasted was a missile attack. Moscow previously reported
everyone aboard had been rescued.
The Russian
Defence Ministry did not acknowledge an attack on the ship. It continued to say
a fire broke out after ammunition detonated, without explaining how that happened.
The
loss of the guided missile cruiser — the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet —
was a humiliating setback for Moscow.
In Mariupol,
reduced largely to smoking rubble by weeks of bombardment, Russian state TV
showed the flag of the pro-Moscow Donetsk separatists raised on what it said
was the city’s highest point, its TV tower. It also showed what it said was the
main building at Mariupol’s besieged Azovstal steel plant in flames.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/why-we-admire-volodomyr-zelensky-20220421-p5af1i
Why we admire Volodomyr Zelensky
The
Ukrainian president’s forthright courage is everything that the insecurity and
paranoia of Putin is not. He shows that democracies can elect leaders who
inspire, ennoble and even save.
Bret Stephens
Contributor
Apr 22, 2022
– 12.37pm
Why do we
admire Volodymyr Zelensky? The question almost answers itself.
We admire him
because, in the face of unequal odds, Ukraine’s president stands his ground.
Because he proves the truth of the adage that one man with courage makes a
majority. Because he shows that honour and love of country are virtues we
forsake at our peril. Because he grasps the power of personal example and
physical presence. Because he knows how words can inspire deeds – give shape and purpose
to them – so that the deeds may, in turn, vindicate the meaning of words.
We admire
Zelensky because he reminds us of how rare these traits have become among our
own politicians.
Zelensky was
an actor who used
his celebrity to become a statesman. Western politics is overrun by people
who playact as statesmen so that they may ultimately become celebrities.
Zelensky has made a point of telling Ukrainians the hard truth that the war is
likely to get worse – and of
telling off supposed well-wishers that their words are hollow and their
support wanting.
Our leaders
mainly specialise in telling people what they want to hear.
We admire
Zelensky because of who and what he faces. Vladimir
Putin represents neither a nation nor a cause, only a totalitarian ethos.
The Russian dictator stands for the idea that truth exists to serve power, not
the other way around, and that politics is in the business of manufacturing
propaganda for those who will swallow it, and imposing terror on those who will
not. Ultimately, the aim of this idea isn’t the mere acquisition of power or
territory. It’s the eradication of conscience.
-----
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/video-detail-heightens-theories-vladimir-putin-is-sick/news-story/4633afe852b816fc85b0b592f978ea6d
Video detail heightens theories Vladimir Putin is sick
A video of
Vladimir Putin is attracting attention due to signs the Russian leader may be
seriously ill.
Lee Brown and
Evan Simko-Bednarski and NY Post
April 23,
2022 - 8:56AM
New video
shows Vladimir Putin looking bloated and awkwardly gripping a table for support
— heightening suspicions that the warmongering president is seriously ill.
The footage
released by the Kremlin on Thursday shows Putin, 69, tightly gripping the table
with his right hand as soon as he sits down — then keeping it there throughout
the nearly 12-minute clip, NY Post reports.
Putin sits
with hunched shoulders and regularly fidgets and taps his toes during a meeting
with his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, to discuss the fate of the besieged
Ukrainian city of Mariupol.
The clip
shows Putin and his key adviser “both depressed & seemingly in bad health,”
tweeted Anders Aslund, a Swedish economist who was previously an adviser to
Russia.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/xis-boasts-are-proving-premature/news-story/2ebb5330b06c7ccfccdf0d85a2685e07
Xi’s boasts are proving premature
ROWAN CALLICK
12:00AM April
23, 2022
This was
going to be the time of Xi Jinping’s crowning triumphs. The auspicious Tiger
Year of 2022 was promising to become the Year of Xi’s Glorious Re-Coronation as
Paramount Leader, the Year of Chinese Supremacy Over Western Covid
Incompetence, the Year of the Resurgent Chinese Economy, and the Year of New
Era Interdependence for the Twin World Powers of Russia and China.
Oh dear. It
already has turned into Xi’s annus horribilis, smitten by triple trouble:
pandemic, economic and geopolitical.
He pronounced
proudly during his Tiananmen Square speech for the Chinese Communist Party’s
centenary on July 1 last year: “In today’s world, if you want to say which
political party, which country and which nation can be confident, then the
Communist Party of China, the People’s Republic of China and the Chinese nation
have the most reason to be confident!”
All he needed
was stability to frame the dominant event in China in 2022: the Chinese
Communist Party’s 20th five-yearly national congress, due in early November.
Its core preordained outcomes comprise a further five-year term for Xi as party
general secretary, and unanimous backing for the ambitious new platform for
China’s future that Xi will deliver in his three-hour keynote speech.
-----
I look
forward to comments on all this!
-----
David.
