May 06, 2021 Edition.
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The dual catastrophes in India and Brazil are
clearly the biggest issue for the week and probably the month. Talk about
seeing into the ‘Gates of Hell’!
In the US the pandemic appears to be
lessening while we see Pres. Biden doing what he can to assist the US recovery.
The US economy appears to be in a major recovery phase and seems to be on the
way back.
In the UK as the vaccinations go forward we
see restrictions lifting and the economy and mood rising.
In Australia we all await the Budget next
week with the so-called ‘pre-Budget leaks’ coming thick and fast at the Liberal
Government totally changes direction from trying to reduce ‘debt and deficit’.
What an amazing change after 50 years! How much of this will be wasted? The #myHealthRecord spend is a waste for sure!
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Major Issues.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/taiwan-conflict-should-not-be-discounted-dutton-20210425-p57m5q
Taiwan conflict should not be
discounted: Dutton
Matthew Cranston Economics
correspondent
Apr
25, 2021 – 11.32am
Defence Minister Peter Dutton has
given a measured warning that conflict between China and Taiwan cannot be
discounted and Australia would look into the appropriateness of arrangements
such as the Chinese ownership of the Port of Darwin.
The Australian Financial Review reported earlier this month that
the Morrison government had sharply escalated its internal
preparations
for potential military action in the Taiwan Strait.
Asked whether the prospects of a
“battle over Taiwan” were growing and could happen “quite soon”, Mr Dutton told
the ABC’s Insiders:
“I don’t think it should be discounted.”
“I think China has been very clear
about the reunification. If you look at any of the rhetoric that’s coming out
of China particularly in recent weeks and months in response to different
suggestions that have been made, they’ve been very clear about that goal.”
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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/morrison-may-have-to-decide-on-war-or-peace-20210422-p57len
A war over Taiwan would be nothing
like Afghanistan
If Taiwan triggers a military conflict, the
PM will need to think harder about Australia’s strategic habit of going to war
whenever America does.
Hugh
White Contributor
Apr 25, 2021 – 2.24pm
War is not an end in itself. It can only ever
be justified as a means to achieve some specific objective, and the wisdom of a
decision to go to war must be judged accordingly. What is the objective? Can it
be achieved? At what cost, and is the objective worth that cost? National
leaders have a duty to weigh these questions carefully before deciding for war.
Scott Morrison should be thinking deeply
about all this, because if war breaks out between America and China, which is a real possibility, he would face the gravest decisions that any
Australian leader has had to make since 1939. He acknowledged this himself last
year when he aptly compared today’s strategic risk with the late 1930s.
And just last week, as tensions continue to
mount, it was reported that his government is now escalating preparations for conflict in
the Taiwan Strait. So one
hopes that Morrison is thinking seriously about the circumstances under which
it would be worth going to war with China. And one hopes that he is trying to
learn what he can from past mistakes.
That makes it worrying and disappointing that
last week, when announcing the end of Australia’s war in Afghanistan, he gave
such a slick answer when asked, “Was it worth going into Afghanistan?”
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/very-courageous-former-obama-official-backs-australia-s-hardline-stance-against-china-20210426-p57mcm.html
‘Very courageous’: Former Obama
official backs Australia’s hardline stance against China
By Anthony
Galloway
April 26, 2021 — 10.11am
A senior defence official under former United
States president Barack Obama says the Five Eyes spy network should be used as
a diplomatic grouping to pressure China, in a direct contrast to New Zealand’s
attempt to narrow its remit.
Michèle Flournoy, who was at one stage the favourite to be President
Joe Biden’s defence secretary,
also backed Australia’s hard-line stance against China’s growing assertiveness,
saying Canberra was “seen as very courageous in Washington right now”.
Australian officials were blindsided when New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Nanaia
Mahuta last week criticised efforts
to pressure China through the 70-year-old intelligence-sharing partnership known
as “Five Eyes”.
Asked about New Zealand’s position, Ms
Flournoy, who was under secretary of defense for policy between 2009 and 2012,
said, “New Zealand is an example of a smaller country that is under a lot of
pressure and probably feels significant risk with making waves or sort of
provoking China”.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rising-house-prices-could-derail-post-covid-economic-recovery-20210423-p57ltt.html
Rising house prices could derail
post-COVID economic recovery
Economics correspondent
April 25, 2021 — 12.15pm
It was eight months before
coronavirus had become a pandemic when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
published a discussion paper that policymakers should take note of today.
The central bank’s researchers
Fiona Price, Benjamin Beckers and Gianni La Cava took a close look at the
effect of mortgage debt on consumer spending. What they found is that
households cut back on spending when they have higher levels of debt.
Home prices in Sydney and
Melbourne are continuing towards double-digit price rises this year, with huge
jumps over the first quarter, and for some buyers this will mean a commensurate
increase in the mortgages they need to service to put a roof over their heads.
It could also mean more borrowers choosing to take on more debt as property
investors.
Rising house prices come with
their own set of challenges both for the economy and individual households
desperate to get on the property ladder. But while fears about young first-time
buyers being stuck forever out of the market are a constant, one of the
concerns that should be front of mind is the effect on spending.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/drawing-a-snake-and-adding-feet-new-zealand-avoids-offending-china-ends-up-offending-closest-partners-20210423-p57lzk.html
Drawing a snake and adding feet:
New Zealand avoids offending China, ends up offending closest partners
Specialist on Chinese domestic and foreign policy
April 26, 2021 — 5.30am
The New Zealand Labour government
has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Foreign Minister Nanaia
Mahuta gave an important speech last week, only her second in the role, that
was meant to lay out her government’s position on matters of concern with
China, without causing diplomatic offence.
Yet the outcome was that her words
ended up offending New Zealand’s closest
partners,
while the Chinese state media launched a disinformation campaign against the
speech that damaged New Zealand’s international reputation.
A Chinese fable from the Warring
States period sums up this diplomatic fiasco well: hua she tian zu,
drawing a snake and adding feet to it. In other words, to ruin an effect by
adding something superfluous.
According to the fable, a family
in the state of Qi offered wine to honour their ancestors, but there wasn’t
enough wine to share with everyone after the ceremony. So they held a
competition to draw a snake; the person who finished drawing first would get
the wine. One young man finished first, then to show how clever he was, added
feet to his drawing. The fable describes the foolishness of a person who does
something that is not only useless, it actually causes harm.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/five-eyes-split-demands-australia-reset-with-new-zealand-20210423-p57lsw.html
Five Eyes split demands Australia
reset with New Zealand
By William
Stoltz
April 26, 2021 — 5.30am
During a speech outlining her
vision for the relationship with China, New Zealand Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta made the striking assertion that
her country would resist efforts by its allies, including Australia, to expand
the role of Five Eyes in responding to China.
The remarks contrast starkly with
Australia’s decision this week to scrap Victoria’s Belt and Road deal with
Beijing and the declaration by the British Parliament that China is carrying
out a genocide against its Uyghur population.
Indeed, Mahuta’s decision is the
latest in a steady drifting of New Zealand away from the hardening posture
towards China adopted by other Western states, particularly its partner nations
in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, America, Australia, Britain, and
Canada. They have drafted joint Five Eyes statements decrying China’s human
rights abuses and the subjugation of Hong Kong.
It is indicative of China’s
leverage over New Zealand that Mahuta’s decision also follows the recent
upgrading of New Zealand’s China Free Trade Agreement. It is a lucrative deal
for a vulnerable New Zealand economy recovering from pandemic recession.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/academic-jane-golley-backtracks-on-uighur-abuse-article/news-story/3ebd0e29f6aaf5a404c2a3d132900e77
Academic Jane Golley backtracks on
Uighur abuse article
Olivia
Caisley
Sharri
Markson
April
26, 2021
An
“anonymous article” casting doubt over grave human rights abuses in Xinjiang,
cited by the head of Australia’s top China-focused academic institution, labels
female sterilisation as “family planning” and says claims regarding genocide
and the incarceration of one million Uighurs are “unsupported.”
Jane Golley, the director of ANU’s
taxpayer-funded Centre on China in the World, told the National Press Club last
week she had read a “convincing” but anonymous paper contradicting media
reports of China’s widespread mistreatment of Uighurs.
“Just
last week I received a scholarly article that debunks much of what you have
read in the Western media on this topic, including the figure of one million
Uighurs in detention camps, the pervasive use of forced labour, and of calling
it genocide,” she said.
“The
authors sent it anonymously because they fear the reaction here in Australia by
those who are committed to the dominant narrative.”
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https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/australia-had-just-two-universities-in-the-top-100-20210425-p57m66
Australia had just two
universities in the top 100
Julie
Hare Education editor
Apr 26, 2021 – 9.01am
Melbourne is the most highly ranked
university for the sixth year in a row, but Australia’s overall performance is
in decline as well-funded Chinese universities climb the ladder on an
international ranking.
Australia had just two universities in the
top 100 and another five in the top 200 of the 2021 Centre
for World University Rankings
released on Monday. This is down from four in the top 100 in 2018.
“With 39 universities ranked highly among the
world’s best, Australia clearly has a very good higher education system,” said
Nadim Mahassen, president of CWUR.
“For many years, Australian universities were
able to attract a large number of international students, particularly from
China. But with China’s extraordinary rise in the rankings, Chinese students
might not find the idea of studying in Australia as attractive as before.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-federal-government-is-walking-a-budget-tightrope-20210425-p57m8x
The federal government is walking
a budget tightrope
This is not the time for austerity, but nor
is it the time to bake in community expectations of unaffordable support.
Tony Shepherd
Contributor
Apr 26, 2021 – 12.14pm
Australia has managed the COVID-19 crisis and
the recovery better than most countries in the world, and without spiralling
into a prolonged recession. As the “lucky country” we have also been supported
by high demand and increased prices for most of our resources.
The forthcoming federal budget is a challenge
because we cannot afford to indefinitely spend more on recurring expenditure
than the government receives in tax revenue.
Thank heavens we had our fiscal house in order when the crisis
hit, allowing the government
to comfortably borrow at very low interest rates. However, over time we must
carefully rebuild our fiscal capacity. We should recognise that debt is still
debt and must be repaid. We cannot afford to gamble on the lowest-ever interest
rates continuing in perpetuity.
The best way to pay down debt is to grow the
economy. If we grow at 4 percent a year until 2023/2024 we would generate an
extra $170 billion in GDP and $40 billion more in government revenue. Our nation’s prosperity relies on business doing the heavy
lifting, as it is business
that creates prosperity and governments that redistribute wealth.
There are sectors of our economy that have
not recovered and are still suffering, including tourism, hospitality,
entertainment, airlines and international education. This is not the time for
austerity. Fiscal repair must wait until the rate of unemployment comes down
close to or under 5 per cent.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/how-your-super-can-look-after-your-loved-ones-20210423-p57lqp
How your super can look after your
loved ones
If
you have a substantial balance, plan carefully for what happens to your
retirement savings after you die to avoid big tax implications.
Michael Hutton Contributor
Apr
27, 2021 – 12.00am
The superannuation system is celebrating its 30th birthday this year. For most people, it
has been in place for their entire working life. Despite this, it’s still a bit
of mystery to many – particularly death benefits (what happens to the balance after
death).
The balance may be pretty
substantial. If retirees have been drawing on the capital at five or six per
cent a year then, after earnings, there may have been little reduction in the
balance.
The first thing to remember is
that for all superannuation funds – whether self-managed, retail or industry –
members can nominate whom the money goes to. This can be through a binding nomination (which means the trustee must pay
it in the way nominated) or a non-binding nomination. Some retail and industry
funds don’t allow binding nominations.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/defend-australia-first-why-john-curtin-might-salute-peter-dutton-20210426-p57mjg.html
Defend Australia first: why John
Curtin might salute Peter Dutton
Columnist and author
April 27, 2021 — 5.30am
Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s
remarks on the eve of Anzac Day about the future posture of the Australian
Defence Force were enormously significant. From now, he said, the “core
business [is] making sure they are keeping Australia safe and secure”,
presumably rather than being able to project our defence capacity to distant
parts of the world such as the Middle East, where we have just ended our
involvement in Afghanistan.
“The threats are understood,”
Dutton said, “and we’ve come to the end of our 20-year engagement in the Middle
East, so there is a refocus and pivoting back to our own region.”
So much history. See, for the
first 40 years or so of our existence as a nation, the broad plan was to amass
enough Frequent Fighter points with Great Britain that we could cash them in
when necessary so it would come to our aid if we were threatened. And we so identified with Australians
being the “loyal sons and daughters” of Great Britain – Great Britain in the
South Seas – that such a stance of having a “forward defence” and sending off
“expeditionary forces” was rarely questioned.
Just before World War I the man
who would be prime minister, Andrew Fisher, famously said Australia would
“stand beside the mother country to help and defend her to the last man and the
last shilling”.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/if-afghanistan-was-bad-enough-let-s-not-countenance-a-war-with-china-20210426-p57mix.html
If Afghanistan was bad enough,
let’s not countenance a war with China
Political and international editor
April 27, 2021 — 5.30am
The US decision to pull out of its
longest war is an admission of the war’s hopelessness. Announcing the end to 20
years of allied occupation of Afghanistan, Joe Biden said as much himself: “We
went to Afghanistan because of a horrific attack that happened 20 years ago.
That cannot explain why we should remain there in 2021.”
So why should the US and its
allies remain? Not sure, really, the US President suggested: “We delivered
justice to bin Laden a decade ago, and we’ve stayed in Afghanistan for a decade
since. Since then, our reasons for remaining in Afghanistan are becoming
increasingly unclear, even as the terrorist threat that we went to fight
evolved.”
So what was everyone waiting for?
“We cannot continue the cycle of extending or expanding our military presence
in Afghanistan, hoping to create ideal conditions for the withdrawal, and expecting
a different result.”
Putting it all together: We don’t
really know why we’re in Afghanistan; it’s not going to get any better; so we
may as well leave now. This amounted to a thoroughgoing admission of strategic
pointlessness after the deaths of more than 3500 coalition troops including 41
Australians, an estimated 100,000 Afghans and a total bill of well over $US2
trillion.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/get-ready-to-fight-for-our-liberty-home-affairs-secretary-michael-pezzullo/news-story/87239deac0153147989ac508d6447046
‘Get ready to fight for our
liberty,’ Home Affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo
Ben
Packham
·
April 27, 2021
One
of the nation’s most powerful national security leaders has declared the
“drums of war” are beating and Australia must be prepared “to send off, yet
again, our warriors to fight”.
Home
Affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo, who is tipped to take the top job at
Defence, said in his Anzac Day message to staff that Australia must strive for
peace, “but not at the cost of our precious liberty”.
Amid
growing tensions between the West and China, with Taiwan a potential
flashpoint, Mr Pezzullo said free nations continued to face the “sorrowful
challenge” of being “armed, strong and ready for war”.
“In
a world of perpetual tension and dread, the drums of war beat – sometimes
faintly and distantly, and at other times more loudly and ever closer,” he
said.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-drums-of-war-are-growing-louder/news-story/bf29fb3cf94b89f84eaeb22fd32d9724
The
drums of war are growing louder
MICHAEL
PEZZULLO
·
1:00AM April 27, 2021
Later
this year Australia and the US will mark the 70th anniversary of our military
alliance. We seek to be militarily self-reliant in all contingencies short of
great-power war.
Nonetheless,
our national defence strategy has at its heart the protection afforded to
Australia in the most perilous circumstances by the military might of the US —
including by way of the deterrence effect of its nuclear arsenal — and its
willingness and preparedness to wage war against a major-power adversary.
Of
course, before the striking of the alliance agreement in 1951, Australians and
Americans had already fought side-by-side in two world wars. The ANZUS Treaty
gave formal shape to implied strategic understandings. So, to mark the passing
of Anzac Day this year, I should like to draw attention to remarkable — but too
little remembered — addresses by two US generals of the army, who in terms of
Australian military rank would have been field marshals.
General
of the army Douglas MacArthur gave an address to the US Military Academy at
West Point on May 12, 1962. This general, who had known war over 50 of its
bloodiest years, reminded the cadets of West Point that their mission was to
train to fight and, when called on, to win their nation’s wars. All else was
entrusted to others. MacArthur reminded the cadets that only the dead had seen
the end of war and that for so long as war afflicted the human condition, a
nation’s warriors had but one dedicated purpose, with all else being secondary.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/we-must-not-fall-for-beijings-magical-narrative/news-story/0ecaf91a0dfcc328c79cbbc17febab3e
We
must not fall for Beijing’s magical narrative
John Lee
·
1:00AM April 27, 2021
In
2014, President Xi Jinping reached back into Chinese Communist Party folklore
to reintroduce Mao Zedong’s concept of magic weapons that could be used to
achieve the great rejuvenation of the country and achieve his “China Dream”. Xi
was referring to the co-optation tactics of the CCP’s United Front network to
win friends, influence governments and eliminate dissent inside China and in
other countries.
In
recent years the CCP has developed another magic
weapon that complements its accumulation of material power. This is the success Beijing is
having in shaping grand narratives in Australia and our region about China.
The
genius is that these narratives condition us to accept Chinese policies meekly
even if they are against our national interests.
The
magic weapon is a narrative buttressed by five basic messages: Chinese
dominance is the historical norm and is inevitable; the objectives of the CCP
are permanent and unchanging; a CCP-led China is fundamentally undeterrable;
the party is prepared to pay any price to achieve its core objectives; and the
US is an increasingly weak and unreliable ally.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/is-australia-ready-for-a-semiconductor-crisis/news-story/a5e782f4d6e21b4395b82a84314ae61a
Is
Australia ready for a semiconductor crisis?
Jonathan
Restarick
·
April 27, 2021
Last
year certainly threw us some curveballs. Lingering in the shadows of larger
issues was a powerfully destructive problem – the impending global shortage of
the computer chip, or semiconductor, the life blood of the technology that our
critical infrastructure – from health to defence to telecommunications, and our
everyday devices, are so heavily reliant on.
The
computer chip has been hailed as ‘the new oil’ – the driver of economic
progress and production. And while the recent Suez blockage received huge
coverage for the $13B impact to global GDP, the approximate $80 billion loss to
car manufacturers due to an unexpected shortage in semiconductor chips has gone
largely unnoticed.
Semiconductor
supply chains are far from linear – from chip design to wafer manufacturing and
all the way to OEM Assembly. It is complex and capital-intensive, and there are
no cheap or easy solutions to solve this problem. It can take semiconductor
manufacturers six to nine months to build additional capacity and the fact that
global supply is largely dominated by a few countries and companies further
exacerbates the issue.
However,
as with most problems 2020 has thrown up, there is also opportunity. With COVID
recovery progressing at different rates between nations, and tensions between
China and the USA escalating, countries are looking for strategic access to
semiconductors, including sovereign self-reliance. Considering Australia’s
positive rate of recovery, and our abundance of natural primary resources to
make the chips, there is ripe opportunity for us to create a new industry and
reduce our reliance on global supply chains – all we need is the willingness
and drive to do so.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-needs-to-draw-a-line-between-policy-and-posturing-on-china-20210426-p57mke
Australia needs to draw a line
between policy and posturing on China
Australia’s
geopolitical pushback strategy is sound. But we needlessly leading with our
chin by chest beating and publicly proselytising against Beijing.
John McCarthy Contributor
Apr
27, 2021 – 12.48pm
The past few weeks have confirmed
that the strategic parameters of our regional policy are basically sound.
However the hubristic self-righteousness of some of our actions demonstrate
overreach inconsistent with the national interest.
The government is doing the right
thing by our country on the American alliance.
If Australia does not adhere to
its tenets, we cannot complain if American commitment to the Indo-Pacific region
beyond Guam diminishes.
We have shown public confidence in
the Biden administration, which as an ally we owe it, and thus far Joe Biden
has justified that confidence. He has set out his policy on China. Allowing for
permissible cant, his language has been sensible.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/morrison-s-budget-challenge-stop-the-economy-s-roar-turning-to-a-meow-20210427-p57mpi.html
Morrison’s budget challenge: stop
the economy’s roar turning to a meow
Economics Editor
April 27, 2021 — 7.45pm
Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg
look like they’re sitting pretty as they finalise what may be their last budget
before the federal election due by the first half of next year. Look deeper,
however, and you see they face a serious risk of the economy’s recovery losing
momentum over the coming financial year. But, equally, they have a chance to
show themselves as the best economic managers since John Howard’s days.
So far, the strength of the
economy’s rebound from the “coronacession” has exceeded all expectations.
Judged by the quantity of the nation’s production of goods and services, the
economy contracted hugely during the three months to June last year. As our
borders were closed, many industries were ordered to stop trading and you and I
were told to leave home as little as possible.
But with the lifting of the
lockdown in the second half of the year, the economy took off. It rebounded so
strongly in the next two quarters that, by the end of December, our production
– real gross domestic product – was just 1 per cent below what it had been a
year earlier, before the arrival of the coronavirus.
The rebound in jobs is even more
remarkable. The number of people in jobs fell by almost 650,000 in April and
May, and that’s not counting the many hundreds of thousands of workers who kept
their jobs thanks only to the JobKeeper scheme.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/anu-academic-slammed-over-citation-of-sub-par-chinese-genocide-research-20210427-p57mls.html
ANU academic slammed over citation
of ‘sub-par’ Chinese genocide research
April 27, 2021 — 12.35pm
An Australian academic has been
savaged as “unethical” for citing an anonymous report containing factual
errors, which she said “debunked” claims China is committing genocide.
Professor Jane Golley, who runs
the Australian National University’s Centre for China, caused a storm among
Sino-watchers when she used an address to the National Press Club last week to
refer to an anonymous document to say the estimated figure of 1 million Uighur
Muslims who have been through re-education camps was probably exaggerated.
The paper, seen by this masthead,
also claimed findings of forced sterilisations were in fact “family planning”.
The anonymous 18-page document
took aim at work by Australia’s Strategic Policy Institute but primarily
focused on the work by German academic Dr Adrian Zenz, a senior fellow in China
studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation who was recently
sanctioned by China.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/schools-summit-monday-story-20210426-p57ml8.html
Tudge ‘very cautious’ on
international student return
Updated April 27, 2021 —
4.57pmfirst published at 3.49pm
Melbourne University’s
international chief has urged the federal government to take up Victoria’s
proposal to fly in international students from May 24, as Education Minister
Alan Tudge warned he was in no hurry to accept more arrivals as coronavirus rages
overseas.
Speaking at the Age
Schools Summit on Tuesday, Mr Tudge confirmed Victoria was the first Australian
state to submit an international students plan. But he tempered expectations,
saying the federal government would be “very cautious” in considering the
proposal.
He was speaking the day after
Victoria wrote to the federal government asking to start a second stream
of 120 overseas students, migrant workers and actors quarantining in the state
each week on top of its quota of 1000 returning Australians.
“We just received the letter last
night, and obviously we’ll carefully look at it, get the advice,” Mr Tudge
said.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/there-s-a-lot-more-to-etf-performance-than-just-the-numbers-20210426-p57mjn.html
There’s a lot more to ETF
performance than just the numbers
By Graham Parkes
April 27, 2021 — 10.00pm
Global financial markets have largely been
continuing with the reflation theme, although parts of the so-called reflation
trade have paused for breath.
Reflation is both accelerating economic
growth and inflation, with ultra-easy monetary policy and big spending fiscal
policy leading to an increase in inflationary expectations and rising bond
yields. This leads to a rotation in sharemarket leadership, where the
outperformers tend to be the classic cyclical sectors of financials (which
likes higher bond yields), resources (like inflation), industrials and energy
(rising oil prices as demand returns).
However, performance is not always what it
appears.
When major macro factors, such as bond
yields, inflect higher or lower from their respective business cycle low or
high points, this can also play a significant role in the performance of both
sharemarket sectors and products, such as Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Understanding the underlying macro forces at
work is important to be able to contextualise investment performance.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/finally-a-super-idea-for-extra-retirement-income-20210427-p57msz.html
Finally, a super idea for extra
retirement income
Noel
Whittaker
Money columnist
April 27, 2021 — 11.00pm
The federal government’s recent Retirement
Income Review pointed out that many retirees live on just the income from their
superannuation, rather than drawing down on the balance as they progress
through retirement.
This seems to be partly due to the major
misunderstanding that this is how the system is supposed to work, and partly
because seniors are afraid of running out of money, as they cannot estimate how
long they will live. So, they draw only the minimum pension required.
As a result, many retirees die with a major
chunk of their financial assets unspent, sacrificing their own living standards
in the process, and leaving more to their beneficiaries.
In December, 2016, Treasury called on income
stream providers to develop new products that would help solve this problem.
However, until now, the industry has been slow to take up the challenge.
After a lot of talk and not much action, we
finally have one super fund that has come up with an interesting solution.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/let-war-games-begin-adf-bases-upgraded/news-story/a1a65abdd7c83d2550a67046126f905c
Let war games begin: ADF bases
upgraded
Geoff
Chambers
Ben
Packham
·
April 28, 2021
Scott
Morrison has ordered sweeping upgrades of military training bases in Northern
Australia to enhance land combat capability and support simulated exercises in a
major strategic step-up aimed at expanding “war gaming” with the US and
defending the Indo-Pacific.
The
Prime Minister will announce a $747m defence package in the Northern Territory
on Wednesday after Home Affairs Department secretary Michael Pezzullo warned
the “drums of war are beating” and that Australia must be prepared “to send
off, yet again, our warriors to fight”.
The
upgrades of four training bases include an overhaul of weapons firing ranges,
lengthening the Northern Territory’s Bradshaw Field Training Area airstrip to
support heavier aircraft and new training facilities for Australian Defence
Force personnel and US marines.
“Working
with the United States, our allies and Indo-Pacific neighbours, we will
continue to advance Australia’s interests by investing in the Australian Defence
Force, particularly across Northern Australia,” Mr Morrison said. “Our focus is
on pursuing peace, stability and a free and open Indo-Pacific, with a world
order that favours freedom.”
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/reality-check-on-threat-of-war-is-what-we-need/news-story/2fb1d1b6650b0af23a833b3c6c484bb0
Michael
Pezzullo right to warn of war danger
Greg
Sheridan
·
1:00AM April 29, 2021
Mike
Pezzullo, the head of the Department of Home Affairs, will not become secretary
of the Defence Department any time soon. That is not because of the sober,
measured Anzac Day reflections he circulated to members of his department.
These were submitted to his minister, Karen Andrews, in advance. She certainly
raised no objections. They do no more than restate common government strategic
judgments and describe, in a perfectly reasonable fashion, the strategic
situation the nation confronts. They do not mention China by name.
The
reaction to Pezzullo’s email has been nearly hysterical, as
though a lofty historical judgment by one of Australia’s most senior and
effective public servants is somehow a threat to international security.
That
the government is not planning to move Pezzullo to Defence reflects a
longstanding preference by Scott Morrison not to move a minister and their
department secretary at the same time. The PM, not unreasonably, thinks this
can cause too much disruption.
It
is also the case that the government has the highest confidence in the current
Secretary of the Defence Department, Greg Moriarty. Moriarty is an impressive
senior Canberra bureaucrat, a very hard-headed individual who has served in all
manner of senior and often highly sensitive government roles.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/wine-exports-to-china-have-all-but-ceased-with-producers-not-holding-out-for-a-resolution/news-story/70dd6ad31d9622003c2b9f13e9529f23
Wine exports to China have all but
ceased with producers not holding out for a resolution
Cameron
England
·
10:42AM April 29, 2021
The
Chinese wine export market has been all but destroyed, with exports in the
first full tariff-affected quarter falling 96 per cent to just $12 million,
latest figures from Wine Australia show.
This
compares with $325 million in the same quarter of 2020, and implies a more than
$1bn hit on an annual basis to the nation’s winemakers, should other export
markets not be found for the product.
In
the year to September last year, before China introduced tariffs on bottled
Australian wine of up to 200 per cent, wine exports to China increased 4 per
cent to $1.17bn.
New
Wine Australia figures released on Thursday show total Australian wine exports
declined by 4 per cent in value to $2.77 billion in the 12 months to March
2021, compared with the previous corresponding period.
The
drop was driven principally by the Chinese tariffs, as well as the cumulative
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/shock-and-iron-ore-is-this-the-last-china-windfall/news-story/c8760f32b8140adcf7c4faa5d61d3189
Shock
and iron ore – is this the last China windfall?
James
Kirby
·
8:08PM April 28, 2021
Iron
ore — Australia’s single most important export — has suddenly vaulted every
record to reach an all-time high just under
$US200 a tonne,
but it just might be the last time we get quite so lucky on a commodity
windfall.
It’s
not that the price of iron ore will drop later in the cycle — of course it will
— rather, we are looking at something much more significant, the inevitable end
of our splendid isolation as the lords of the seaborne iron ore trade into
China.
We
export the majority of our iron ore, and 85 per cent of those exports go to
China.
In
turn Beijing — already a difficult customer — is actively seeking alternative
sources for its steel mills.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-indigenous-population-may-have-been-3-million-study-finds-20210428-p57n8u.html
Australia’s Indigenous population
may have been 3 million, study finds
April 30, 2021 — 1.01am
The Indigenous population of
Australia may have once reached 3 million, triple the largest previous
estimate, according to findings from a study that archaeologists worldwide hope
can lead to international breakthroughs.
At the point of first contact with
Europeans there was no organised effort to quantify the Aboriginal population,
which was decimated by new diseases and frontier violence, but previous
estimates of Australia’s pre-colonial population ranged from 30,000 to 1
million.
A new peer-reviewed study published
on Friday in the journal Nature Communications used powerful computer modelling
and applied a combination of methods incorporating the ecological, human and
climate factors at play on the continent.
During the last Ice Age, the
researchers calculated, there were 2 million square kilometres more coastal
plain exposed compared with today and the larger landmass could have been home
to more people.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/super-funds-brace-for-government-to-get-the-power-to-cancel-investments-it-doesn-t-like-20210429-p57nkj.html
Super funds brace for government
to get the power to cancel investments it doesn’t like
By Jennifer
Duke
April 29, 2021 — 5.21pm
The $3 trillion superannuation sector is
bracing for the government to get new powers allowing the Treasurer to block
investments and spending decisions politicians dislike.
The Senate Economics Legislation Committee
has recommended the federal government’s Your Future, Your Super legislation be
passed, including a controversial change giving politicians the ability to
block investment decisions by super funds. The reforms were introduced during
last year’s federal budget in a bid to reduce multiple accounts by stapling
members to their funds, reduce fees and improve super fund performance by
subjecting them to benchmark tests.
A dissenting report from Labor opposes the
passing of the bill, raising a host of issues with the proposed changes. The
“political override power” on spending decisions has been particularly
concerning to the opposition and the super sector, who warn such a power is
“extraordinary” and would allow the Treasurer to personally choose to block any
payment made by a superannuation trustee.
Another concern raised by Labor’s report is
that the stapling of funds ahead of performance tests being rolled out across
the entire industry would potentially leave three million workers stuck with
underperforming funds unless they choose to change accounts.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-warns-identity-politics-abuse-of-social-media-undermining-society-20210429-p57nnw.html
PM warns identity politics, abuse
of social media are undermining society
By Latika
Bourke
April 29, 2021 — 10.52pm
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says identity
politics and the moral corrosion caused by the misuse of social media are
forces seeking to undermine society.
In a speech to the United Israel Appeal NSW
donor dinner in Sydney on Thursday night, Mr Morrison also said voters should
contribute more to the community than they expect from the state.
Mr Morrison made the remarks in a speech – in
which he repeatedly referred to his Pentecostal faith – called “the responsibility of citizens in
building community to achieve national success”.
“As citizens, we cannot allow what we think
we are entitled to, to become more important than what we are responsible for,”
he told an audience that included his best friend and prayer partner, cabinet
minister Stuart Robert, and Liberal backbenchers Dave Sharma and Julian Leeser.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/crunch-time-on-labour-shortages-20210430-p57nsp
Crunch time on labour shortages
By
strangling immigration indefinitely, the Morrison Government is placing
politics above economic recovery. It’s a gamble that could backfire badly.
Jacob Greber AFR correspondent
Apr
30, 2021 – 7.00pm
Neil Perry is a worried man. The celebrated chef
is punting on a bold new solo-venture – a Sydney neighbourhood restaurant named
after his mother, Margaret, which he’s racing to open in mid-June.
“I’m putting $4 million into a
restaurant in Double Bay and I don’t have one sleepless moment about having
enough customers. But I’m really worried about having enough staff to open
seven days a week.”
A lack of international students, erratic state borders, and a frozen
immigration system
have drained his normal pools of “arms and legs” workers for jobs such as
waiters, kitchen hands, bar-backs and fishmongers.
It has stranded some of his most
experienced hands –higher-skilled chefs who retreated overseas when the
pandemic broke out – in countries such as Italy, Hong Kong and South Korea,
with no way of returning to Perry’s kitchen.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/how-to-invest-in-residential-property-without-buying-a-house-20210427-p57ms4
How to invest in residential
property - without buying a house
With
property prices rising again, some investors are seeking a slice of residential
real estate via new-age crowdfunding and investment funds.
Aleks Vickovich Wealth editor
May
1, 2021 – 12.00am
t the height of Australia’s
coronavirus panic in March and April last year, few serious analysts of the
housing market expected prices to be where they are today.
In fact, many predicted house
prices would fall by as
much as a third,
plunging the nation into a property downturn amid the escalating public health
crisis.
Instead, they fell by about 2 per
cent nationally and fund managers such as Coolabah Capital now tip house prices
to rise an astonishing 25 per cent by
2023,
based on similar modelling to the Reserve Bank of Australia and thanks to low
interest rates and, hopefully, some wages growth.
That is good news for established
property investors and landlords or the many Australians reliant on the value
of their family home as the cornerstone of their personal wealth.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/hermit-condition-stunts-australia-s-global-standing-20210430-p57np1
Hermit Australia risks never
opening up at all
The
Indian crisis is making Australia even more cautious about opening up, when
actually it should finally make us acknowledge that COVID-19 risk is
inevitable.
Hans van Leeuwen Europe correspondent
Apr
30, 2021 – 11.28am
London | Trade Minister Dan Tehan did
something last week that has become slightly unusual for an Australian, even
for an Australian government minister: he went overseas.
In pursuit of trade deals
and some relief from European export restrictions, his week-long sortie took him to
Geneva, Berlin, Brussels, Paris and
London. He met ministers, business executives, diplomats and journalists.
On the trip’s penultimate day, he
sat down to breakfast with several Australian correspondents in London. Most of
the talk was about trade; but discussion then turned to a topic never far from
the lips of any Australian abroad – the country’s zero-tolerance coronavirus
strategy, and the seeming lack of any path towards unsealing the border that keeps us cut off
from our loved ones back home.
“You’ve been around Europe, you’ve
been around London, you’ve been able to do business,” one of the journalists
observed.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/for-a-bomb-proof-portfolio-investors-should-consider-the-risk-of-war-20210429-p57njd
How to prepare for war with China
While
the wider community is mostly oblivious to the risk of war, there is a very
real chance that the Australian homeland could be in the cross-hairs.
Christopher Joye Columnist
Apr
30, 2021 – 2.29pm
Long-time readers of this column
have been hearing about
the drum beats of war between China and the US for the best part of a decade. Back in May 2020, Coolabah
Capital gave a detailed private seminar to hundreds of our wholesale clients
assessing these risks and advised that the probability of major power conflict
in the Indo-Pacific had lifted to as high as 50 per cent.
While none of our geopolitical
advisers had quite such a pessimistic perspective (they tended to be in the
still-elevated, circa 25 per cent camp), most are now handicapping war as a
toss-of-a-coin prospect. In fact, one of our most accurate foreign policy
advisers said Thursday that the conflict probabilities have lifted above 50 per
cent. A “tell” in this regard is the combatants probing the contours of the cyber-security
battlespace much more aggressively than before.
The prospects for war are actually
higher in the next five years than the period thereafter because of how
successfully China has closed the military capability gap with the US. Every
day President Xi Jinping delays, his potential adversaries in a battle over Taiwan (which would undoubtedly include
the US, Japan, Australia and the UK) are investing enormous effort to prepare
for war and once again expand the capability gap. Sadly, the wider Australian
community has yet to come to grips with these morbid contingencies.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/upgrade-looms-for-submarines-frigates-amid-rising-regional-tensions-20210430-p57nuk
Upgrade looms for submarines,
frigates amid rising regional tensions
Andrew Tillett Political
correspondent
May
1, 2021 – 12.00am
A major review into Australia’s
submarine warfare capability is likely to recommend bringing forward upgrades
for the navy’s frigates and Collins class submarines in light of the
deteriorating strategic environment confronting the region sparked by China’s
rise.
Amid warnings from the government
over the growing risk of conflict, defence sources have told AFR Weekend
the review, led by one of the navy’s most senior officers, will focus on short
and medium improvements to the naval fleet.
Senior military commanders are
concerned that although Australia and Western allies enjoy a technology edge
over China’s military – a case of quality over quantity – that is being eroded.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison
commissioned the review earlier this year amid growing tensions with French
shipbuilder Naval Group over the $90 billion future submarine project.
The Australian Financial Review revealed earlier this week the Defence Department was refusing to sign a new contract with Naval
Group
after the company came in over budget with its estimates for the next phase of
the project.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-politics-of-standing-up-to-xi-s-china-20210430-p57nxa.html
The politics of standing up to
Xi’s China
Political and international editor
May 1, 2021 — 5.30am
The new Defence Minister, Peter
Dutton, has been criticised for warmongering this week, and the government
stands accused of trying to set up a China panic to boost its re-election
chances. The toughest critic probably was Kevin Rudd. The former prime minister
told the ABC’s Leigh Sales that the government was seeking “the khaki terrain
of a national security agenda”.
Rudd told me that “Morrison and
company are addicted to the drug of ‘standing up to China’ every day of the
week” because it helps the government politically. National security was “old
faithful for the next election” while other issues weren’t running in the
government’s favour. “And that is what the agenda shift to China is all about.”
So what did Dutton say? In an
interview on the ABC’s Insiders show on Sunday, host David Speers asked
Dutton: “Two of your former colleagues, Tony Abbott and Christopher Pyne, now
believe the prospects of a battle over Taiwan are growing, could happen quite
soon. Do you share that view?”
Dutton: “I don’t think it should
be discounted. I think China has been very clear about the reunification and
that’s been a long-held objective of theirs and if you look at any of the
rhetoric that is coming out of China from spokesmen, particularly in recent
weeks and months in response to different suggestions that have been made, they
have been very clear about that goal.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/there-s-no-back-up-copy-australian-treasures-are-on-the-brink-of-destruction-20210430-p57nso.html
‘There’s no back-up copy’:
Australian treasures are on the brink of destruction
By Michelle
Arrow
May 1, 2021 — 5.30am
Do you remember taping programs
off your television with a VCR? Back in the days before streaming, many of us
amassed small libraries of movies this way, the tapes becoming scratchy and
wobbly with age. Then along came the DVD: a much more stable, digital format.
The VCR quickly became obsolescent, and all those VHS tapes, lovingly compiled,
became unplayable, virtually overnight.
Simply put, this is the dilemma
that faces the National Archives of Australia. It is stuck, metaphorically, in
the VHS era, and without an urgent injection of funds, it will be trapped there.
It has a vast collection of historical records: not just documents and files,
but tape recordings, films, and television programs. And much of it is on the
brink of destruction.
If rapid action is not taken to
convert all the archives’ audio visual material to secure, digital formats, in
2025, it will topple off what archivists call the “digital cliff”. A
combination of deterioration and outmoded technology will conspire to destroy
it.
Many paper documents held in the
archives are in similar peril, as the Herald reported on Monday.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/identity-politics-drums-of-war-quick-look-over-there-hobgoblins-20210430-p57nu4.html
Identity politics? Drums of war?
Quick, look over there – hobgoblins!
Tony
Wright
Associate editor and special writer
April 30, 2021 — 3.30pm
There is always a reason why political
leaders seek to turn everything on its head, frighten the horses and bellow
that dreadfulness stalks the night and must be stared down by the forces of
light, which is to say, those in power.
Scott Morrison and his currently loyal
sidekicks, you may have noticed, are ladling out all these techniques with
furious enthusiasm.
Peter Dutton, having barely warmed the seat
as Defence Minister, warns of a possible war with China on the very day (ahem,
Anzac Day, as it happened) his national security minion, Mike Pezzullo, offers his concern that “free nations again hear the beating
drums and watch worryingly the militarisation of issues that we had, until
recent years, thought unlikely to be catalysts for war”.
Trying to turn the narrative on its head?
Frightening the horses? Tick and tick.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-warns-identity-politics-abuse-of-social-media-undermining-society-20210429-p57nnw.html
PM warns identity politics, abuse
of social media are undermining society
By Latika
Bourke
April 29, 2021 — 10.52pm
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says identity
politics and the moral corrosion caused by the misuse of social media are
forces seeking to undermine society.
In a speech to the United Israel Appeal NSW
donor dinner in Sydney on Thursday night, Mr Morrison also said voters should
contribute more to the community than they expect from the state.
Mr Morrison made the remarks in a speech – in
which he repeatedly referred to his Pentecostal faith – called “the responsibility of citizens in
building community to achieve national success”.
“As citizens, we cannot allow what we think
we are entitled to, to become more important than what we are responsible for,”
he told an audience that included his best friend and prayer partner, cabinet
minister Stuart Robert, and Liberal backbenchers Dave Sharma and Julian Leeser.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/future-fund-s-costello-highlights-inflation-fears-as-assets-hit-179b-20210429-p57ng8.html
Future Fund’s Costello highlights
inflation fears as assets hit $179b
By Clancy
Yeates
April 29, 2021 — 1.47pm
Future Fund chairman Peter Costello has
highlighted investor concerns that any rise in inflation could push up interest
rates from record lows, as booming markets drove the fund’s total assets to a
record of $179 billion.
In an update on Thursday the taxpayer-owned
fund notched up 10.1 per cent returns for the year to March and 4.5 per cent
over the quarter, as global sharemarkets powered ahead. Despite the bounce,
however, the fund reiterated its cautious stance, pointing to challenges ahead
as governments unwind extraordinary stimulus policies that have inflated asset
prices.
Chairman Peter Costello said the outlook was
“greatly improved” from the depths of last year, but also pointed to a number
of risks including the possibility of global setbacks, and the concern in
financial markets about the risk of inflation sparking higher borrowing costs.
“With interest rates at historically low
levels, markets are very sensitive to any prospect of inflation and rising
rates as a consequence,” said Mr Costello, who is also chairman of this
masthead’s owner, Nine Entertainment.
-----
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-may-strike-a-chord-on-identity-politics-but-he-s-wading-onto-contested-ground-20210430-p57nw7.html
Morrison may strike a chord on
identity politics but he’s wading onto contested ground
By David
Crowe
April 30, 2021 — 6.32pm
Scott Morrison stepped onto contested ground
when he chose to make a speech about morality and community. The Prime Minister
condemned identity politics for pitting Australians against each other,
called for a stronger sense of community and argued against people defining
themselves by a sense of entitlement.
“We cannot allow what we think we are
entitled to, to become more important than what we are responsible for as
citizens,” he said on Thursday night.
Morrison put faith at the heart of his
message about morality and personal freedom. He quoted Alexis de Tocqueville:
“Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith.”
He quoted Friedrich Hayek: “Freedom has never worked without deeply ingrained
moral beliefs.”
Critics see a threat from Morrison’s personal
faith in language like that, especially after the leak of a speech he gave to Christian church leaders on the
Gold Coast last month. Those who dislike his Pentecostal beliefs even see a
risk to the separation of church and state.
-----
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-advice/flights/australians-may-be-jailed-or-fined-if-they-fly-in-from-india-reports/news-story/da6aeb4a5a0d390d7b4a545e56b040d3
Australians to be jailed or fined
if they fly in from India
The government has denied it is leaving
thousands of Australians to the mercy of the world’s worst COVID-19 outbreak in
India.
Finn McHugh and Rhiannon Tuffield
NCA NewsWire
May 1, 202112:02pm
Australians stuck in India are not being left
to the mercy of the world’s worst COVID-19 outbreak, despite new jail terms and
massive fines for those seeking to return from India, the treasurer says.
Returning citizens who have been in India in
the past two weeks will be threatened with the prison sentence or a $66,000
fine.
The law, the first in Australia’s history
making it illegal for citizens to return home, comes into effect from Monday
and will be reviewed on May 15.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/emergency-powers-on-cards-to-block-all-travellers-from-india/news-story/c99cd9e391ba119f5482fd8c42d3985b
Emergency powers from Monday to
block all travellers from India
Rosie
Lewis
·
9:41AM May 1, 2021
Health
Minister Greg Hunt will invoke emergency powers to block all travellers from
India, amid concerns that transiting passengers who have been in the coronavirus-ravaged
country may still enter Australia.
The
powers, which have never been used before, will come into force from Monday and
people who breach them face five years’ jail or a fine of up to $66,600.
Mr
Hunt made the determination under the Biosecurity Act to stop people who have
been in India during the past fortnight from arriving in Australia, after
receiving advice from Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly.
“The
risk assessment that informed the decision was based on the proportion of
overseas travellers in quarantine in Australia who have acquired a COVID-19
infection in India,” the Minister said.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/china-warns-australia-to-avoid-getting-burned-by-colluding-with-terrorists/news-story/6b5b1466b1bbe18d58aec88c7eae0559
China warns Australia to avoid
getting ‘burned’ by colluding with ‘terrorists’
Finn
McHugh
·
NCA NewsWire
·
May 1, 2021
China
has accused Australian politicians of colluding with ‘terrorists’ in Xinjiang
and warned Canberra it will get “burned” if it continues to back Uyghur
activists.
The
comments are the latest salvo in a war-of-words over the region, where human
rights groups warn the Muslim Uyghur minority face horrific abuses.
Chinese
media has seized on an article, published by fringe political group the
Australian Citizens Party, criticising local politicians’ support for the East
Turkistan Australian Association (ETAA), a Uyghur advocacy group.
The
article claimed the ETAA supported terror groups in Xinjiang.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/border-cant-open-until-the-world-is-vaccinated-sinodinos/news-story/05be2e90d8e9568734ba85deef113df3
Border can’t open until the world
is vaccinated: Sinodinos
Adam
Creighton
·
7:09AM May 1, 2021
Ambassador
to the US Arthur Sinodinos has raised the prospect of indefinite restrictions
travel in and out of Australia, suggesting the border couldn’t open until “the
world is vaccinated”.
Speaking
at an online event on Friday at the Washington DC-based Hudson Institute, Mr
Sinodinos suggested reopening the border was an “economic imperative” but
unlikely to happen soon, especially given popularity of restrictions.
“We
have major industries like international education which require people coming
in, immigration has been big driver of Australian growth and that’s really
tailed off. For us there’s a real economic imperative to getting borders open,”
he said.
“Because
we’ve done well on community transmission there isn’t same pressure from the
public to get the vaccines out … it’s not like the US and elsewhere where
there’s been a real urgency,” he added.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/changing-economy-gives-labor-room-to-pursue-an-agenda-in-its-turf-20210429-p57nkz
Labor gets room to pursue an
agenda on its turf
After dumping its decade-long “debt and
deficit” warfare narrative the government will now be judged on reforms that
assist job creation and service delivery.
Laura Tingle
Columnist
Apr 30, 2021 – 4.19pm
In the early days of the Hawke government,
when Labor and a dynamic young treasurer, Paul Keating, kept confounding a
hostile and suspicious business community with market-friendly policies, the
cartoonist Patrick Cook would draw the then previous treasurer, John Howard, as
a battle-scarred veteran.
Howard was covered in plasters and bandages
of the battles – of which the legends grew – that he had had with his prime
minister Malcolm Fraser, to try to push a deregulatory agenda that was then
sweeping other parts of the Western world.
By the time Paul Keating was handing down
budgets, Cook’s Howard had been reduced to a legless, but heavily medalled, old
warrior on a skateboard, glumly looking on as his Zegna-suited successor
strolled past, declaring nonchalantly there was “nothing to it”.
Howard may have, and did, claim the
satisfaction of seeing the agenda he wanted to be implemented. He had won the
war, it seemed.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/years-of-grief-caused-by-icare-could-have-been-avoided-former-judge-20210430-p57nwq.html
Years of grief caused by icare
‘could have been avoided’: former judge
By Lucy
Cormack and Tom Rabe
May 1, 2021 — 5.00am
The country’s biggest workers’ compensation
scheme suffered from a failure of governance, sloppy execution and difficulties
in getting injured workers access to their entitled benefits.
State insurer icare was on Friday served the
latest in a series of damning report cards into its governance, including one
from a retired Supreme Court judge who said five-and-a-half years of grief
could have been avoided.
It follows revelations of financial
mismanagement, the underpayment of thousands of injured workers and net losses
of more than $2.5 billion in the two years to 2020.
Almost all the senior executives embroiled in
the scandal have since left icare.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-gutwein-on-track-for-historic-third-term-but-what-does-it-mean-for-scott-morrison-20210430-p57nv8.html
Gutwein claims victory in the
Tasmanian election as Liberals edge closer to majority
By James
Massola and Amelia
McGuire
Updated May 1, 2021 — 10.55pmfirst published
at 8.33pm
The Tasmanian Liberals were on track to form
government on Saturday evening, with Premier Peter Gutwein claiming victory.
The election - which is the fourth time a
state government has faced voters since the COVID-19 pandemic began - is being
watched closely in Canberra for indications of whether, or to what extent, the
Apple Isle’s three marginal seats could swing at the next federal poll.
“What a night,” Mr Gutwein told party
faithful.
“Whilst we have won this election
convincingly, it appears increasingly likely that we will also govern in
majority.
-----
Coronavirus And Impacts.
-----
https://www.afr.com/technology/five-lessons-from-covid-19-that-will-change-us-all-20210428-p57n69
Five lessons from COVID-19 that
will change us all
Julie Hare and Paul Smith
Apr
28, 2021 – 6.10pm
The pandemic triggered a
fundamental shift in the nation’s relationship with technology, accelerating
existing trends and radically changing expectations of everyday consumers.
Speaking to The Australian Financial Review
Government Services Summit
Pradeep Philip, chief executive of Deloitte Access Economics, said 2020 had
“taught us to sit up and take notice of the speed of change” and had exposed
structural weaknesses.
“The pandemic exposed our errors,
the errors of underestimating the virus, its geometric progression, and being
underprepared despite the warning,” Dr Philip said.
“[COVID-19] was no black swan
event. Rather it is what American author, Michele Wucker, describes as a grey
rhino – highly obvious and highly probable, but still neglected and dangerous.”
-----
Climate Change.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/coal-the-loser-as-power-prices-smashed-20210427-p57mra
Coal the loser as power prices
smashed
Angela
Macdonald-Smith Senior resources writer
Apr
28, 2021 – 12.01am
Mushrooming rooftop solar and mild
summer weather have driven demand for power from the grid to the lowest for 19
years for the peak summer quarter, cutting wholesale prices by up to 68 per
cent and pushing major coal and gas power
generators
such as AGL Energy to the brink.
NSW, Victoria and South Australia
all had record low demand for power from the centralised grid for the three
months of the year when consumption is typically highest and prices the most
volatile.
The installation of rooftop solar
panels hit a fresh high for a March quarter of about 800 megawatts.
That contributed to prices
dropping more frequently to zero or into negative territory, and caused a slump
in black coal power output to the lowest for a March quarter since the National
Electricity Market began in December 1998, according to the Australian Energy
Market Operator.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fastest-change-in-the-world-coal-s-demise-sparks-call-for-energy-market-reforms-20210429-p57nhc.html
Fastest change in the world:
coal’s demise sparks call for energy market reforms
April 30, 2021 — 12.01am
The future of coal power is dead
and buried as cheaper renewables make it uneconomic for private companies to
keep their ageing plants firing, the Commonwealth’s energy adviser says as it
calls for urgent reforms to an energy market going through the fastest
transition in the world.
The Energy Security Board, which
reports to the Council of Australian Governments, called for a nationally
co-ordinated approach to address “concerning and urgent” threats to the
reliability of the energy grid.
The problem has been building
since 2018 when the federal government abandoned its National Energy Guarantee
policy, which was intended to co-ordinate the rise of renewable energy with
dispatchable energy from large scale batteries, pumped hydro, or gas peaking
plants that can be deployed to rapidly fill gaps when solar and wind power
aren’t available.
Wind and solar farms, along with
rooftop panels, are being built at an increasing pace and pouring more and more
power into the grid. But to ensure there are no blackouts, weather-dependent
renewables need dispatchable back-up supply to fill gaps in the grid.
-----
Royal Commissions And The Like.
-----
No entry in this category.
-----
National Budget Issues.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-memory-of-the-nation-is-at-risk-with-national-archives-desperate-for-funds-20210422-p57lkp.html
‘The memory of the nation is at
risk’ with National Archives desperate for funds
By Katina Curtis and Shane Wright
April 26, 2021 — 5.00am
Recordings of war-time speeches
given by John Curtin, tapes of the Stolen Generation royal commission and even
the records of the Bounty mutineers could disappear forever without an
injection of cash into the National Archives.
Years of funding and staff cuts
have caught up with the archives, which is struggling to prevent the
disintegration of unique pieces of Australian history, including the personnel
files of RAAF non-commissioned officers from World War II and papers for
suffragettes Adela Pankhurst and Celia John.
Even surveillance films taken by
ASIO, video of the 1998 Constitutional Convention and original films of early
Australian Antarctic research expeditions are at risk as the Archives struggles
to protect 384 kilometres of records that are growing rapidly every year.
Nicola Laurent, president of the
Australian Society of Archivists, of which the National Archives is an
institutional member, says it’s highly concerning it has come to the point
where such important records are at risk.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/fresh-fight-over-contracts-another-blow-for-90b-submarine-project-20210426-p57mcp
Fresh fight over contracts another
blow for $90b submarine project
Andrew Tillett
Political correspondent
Apr 27, 2021 – 12.00am
The Defence Department is refusing to sign
new contracts with French shipbuilder Naval Group over the troubled future
submarine project, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Defence Minister Peter
Dutton stamp their authority by demanding all major strategic decisions be
routed through their offices.
Sources have told The Australian Financial
Review the Morrison government is refusing to pay Naval Group’s profit margin
on the project and is covering just the company’s costs, forcing the
shipbuilder to shed contractors and threatening to see work grind to a halt.
The federal government and shipbuilder Naval
Group are facing fresh trouble over the submarine project.
The increasingly bitter contractual wrangling
comes as the $90 billion project faces fresh delays, with COVID-19 running rife
through the French shipyard and infecting a significant number of Australian
engineers and designers, forcing their offices to be closed for deep cleaning.
While the government and Naval Group finally
secured an agreement last month for the company to spend at least 60 per cent of the total contract value on local suppliers, the two sides remained deadlocked over the
next stage of the project, the detailed design.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/treasurer-urged-to-revisit-standard-tax-deduction-as-budget-bottom-line-improves-20210426-p57mg3.html
Treasurer urged to revisit
standard tax deduction as budget bottom line improves
By Shane
Wright and Nick
Bonyhady
April 27, 2021 — 12.01am
Millions of Australians would be able to stop
collecting receipts in shoeboxes under a proposal to reform the personal tax
system as the federal budget bottom line recovers from the coronavirus
recession more quickly than expected.
The idea, first examined in detail in the
2009 Henry tax reform, would entitle all Australians to a $3000 annual standard
tax deduction. Centrist think tank the Blueprint Institute argues this would
benefit low and middle-income earners while delivering an economic stimulus.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will in the May 11
budget extend for a single year the low and middle-income tax offset worth up to $1080 for more than 10 million
people earning less than $126,000 a year.
But even with the extension, these people
still face a tax increase from 2022-23 until the third tranche of the
government’s tax reform package starts from 2024-25. Those mid-decade tax cuts,
however, will overwhelmingly benefit high-income earners.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/rudd-is-making-a-big-mistake-trying-to-revive-the-resources-super-profits-tax-debate-20210426-p57mes.html
Ghost from the past: Kevin Rudd is
making a big mistake reviving an old tax debate
Senior business columnist
April 26, 2021 — 11.59am
With the iron ore price nudging
$US180 a tonne it isn’t surprising that there has been a renewed call for a
super profits tax on the iron ore miners.
Last week former prime minister
Kevin Rudd argued for a “super profits levy” on iron ore miners, accusing them
of greed and of a “giant rip-off of the Australian people.”
It’s probably no surprise that
Rudd has raised the issue, given that the aborted Resources Super Profits Tax
and the ferocious campaign against it by the mining industry played a
significant role in his displacement as prime minister by
Julia Gillard in 2010.
The RSPT, as it was known, was
ill-conceived then and remains ill-conceived today; one built on misconceptions
about the industry and how its “super profitability” has been achieved.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/inflation-eases-to-06-per-cent-in-march-quarter/news-story/39849b0f1ddf6defd3c7191d77aa7660
Inflation eases to 0.6 per cent in
March quarter
Patrick
Commins
·
April 28, 2021
Inflation
fell to 0.6 per cent over the first three months of the year, taking the annual
rise in the consumer price index to 1.1 per cent from 0.9 per cent in the
previous quarter.
The
quarterly reading was below the 0.9 per cent anticipated by private sector
economists.
The
most significant price rise over the 12 months to March was petrol (up 8.7 per
cent), while the largest price fall was for furniture, which fell by 3 per
cent.
The
less volatile “trimmed mean” inflation – preferred by the Reserve Bank of
Australia as a measure of underlying inflationary pressures – fell to 0.3 per
cent in the quarter, from 0.4 per cent, according to the Australian Bureau of
Statistics.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/soft-1-1pc-inflation-eases-pressure-on-interest-rates-20210428-p57n0c
Soft 1.1pc inflation eases
pressure on interest rates
Matthew Cranston Economics correspondent
Apr
28, 2021 – 12.18pm
Inflation is softer than expected
with the headline figure rising only 0.6 per cent in the March quarter to 1.1
per cent annually – significantly lower than economists expected.
The Reserve Bank’s preferred core
inflation measure is now at its lowest annual rate on record, leaving the
central bank with a greater justification for keeping interest rates low.
Government subsidies in home
building and education were the drivers that prevented prices from rising as
much as anticipated.
Economists expected headline
inflation to rise 0.9 per cent in the March quarter to an annual 1.4 per cent,
up from 0.9 per cent in the December
quarter.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-opens-door-to-spend-big-to-fix-jobs-and-deficit-20210427-p57mop
Frydenberg aims to spend big to fix
jobs and deficit
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Apr
28, 2021 – 10.30pm
The Morrison government has given
itself licence for a big spending budget focused on job creation, saying an unemployment
rate with a “four in front of it” was needed to lift wages and inflation, as
well as drive down debt and deficit.
In a speech recalibrating the
government’s fiscal policy ahead of the May 11 federal budget, Treasurer Josh
Frydenberg will delay plans – likely beyond the election – to focus squarely on
budget repair once the unemployment rate fell to between 5.25 per cent and 5.5
per cent.
Instead, the government will use
targeted spending to strive for sustained unemployment levels not witnessed
since before the Global Financial Crisis, when the jobless rate remained below
5 per cent between 2006 and 2008.
Citing new Treasury estimates, Mr
Frydenberg will say the unemployment rate deemed necessary to “see inflation
and wages accelerate” had fallen below the previous estimate of 5 per cent to
“between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent”.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/debt-and-deficit-disasters-gone-as-frydenberg-aims-for-low-unemployment-20210428-p57n7u.html
Debt and deficit disasters gone as
Frydenberg aims for low unemployment
By Shane
Wright
April 28, 2021 — 10.30pm
It’s only two years ago that Josh Frydenberg
stood in a crowded House of Representatives to proclaim “the first surplus in
12 years and the first repayment made on Labor’s debt”.
The budget was “back in black” the Treasurer
told voters in a speech that pre-dates the 2019 election “miracle”, the
bushfires of summer and then the coronavirus pandemic.
While the Morrison government talked up its
economic management skills for the march back to this “surplus”, it ignored the
softness in the economy. The Reserve Bank had interest rates at a then-record
low of 1.5 per cent, under-employment was climbing and wages growth – already
terrible – was slowing.
Just days after the 2019 election victory,
the RBA made its own judgement on economic policy in this country by cutting
rates even lower.
-----
https://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-house-prices-soar-to-record-median-of-1309195-after-fastest-quarterly-rise-in-28-years-1048412/
Sydney house prices soar to record
median of $1.3m after fastest quarterly rise in 28 years
Tawar
Razaghitwitter Journalist Apr 29, 2021
Sydney
house prices have soared to a record-breaking $1,309,195, rising more than
$100,000 in the first three months of this year, new figures reveal, the
fastest quarterly gain in almost 30 years.
The median house price jumped 8.5
per cent in the first quarter of 2021, according to the latest Domain House
Price Report released on Thursday. It is the fastest quarterly
growth since Domain records began in 1993.
The unit recovery has also picked
up, with the median price rising 2.2 per cent over the quarter to $751,038.
The persistent lack of stock in
the face of unabated high levels of buyer demand and ultra-low interest rates
has continued to fuel this “extremely rare” rate of growth, according to Domain
senior research analyst Nicola Powell.
------
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-austerity-frydenberg-to-fire-up-economy-in-major-shift-to-budget-policy-20210428-p57n2m.html
No austerity: Frydenberg to fire
up economy in major shift to budget policy
By Shane
Wright
April 28, 2021 — 10.30pm
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will use his
post-pandemic budget to deliberately run the economy as fast as possible in a
bid to drive the nation’s jobless rate below 5 per cent, upending the federal
government’s fiscal policy.
In a major shift in rhetoric and budget
policy, Mr Frydenberg will on Thursday use a speech to bring the government’s
spending plans in line with the Reserve Bank’s own aggressive monetary policy
stance while abandoning any rush to post-pandemic austerity.
Mr Frydenberg has overseen the largest budget
deficits since World War II, with the 2019-20 shortfall of $85.3 billion to be
dwarfed by a deficit of at least $150 billion in the current year. In next
month’s budget he is expected to forecast a deficit for 2021-22 of at least $50
billion.
A new report from the independent
Parliamentary Budget Office also shows the debts run up dealing with the
coronavirus pandemic will weigh on the budget for a generation.
The Treasurer had previously promised not to
start the government’s budget repair plan until unemployment was “comfortably
below 6 per cent”. The jobless rate fell to 5.6 per cent in March but with
JobKeeper ending that month, both Treasury and private economists believe it
could drift higher.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-world-is-in-a-leverage-trap-it-will-struggle-to-get-out-of-20210428-p57n3j.html
Markets are behaving dangerously
but central banks have their heads in the sand
Stephen
Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
April 28, 2021 — 12.00pm
At the US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market
Committee meeting this week the members will no doubt spend most of their time
discussing the surge in economic activity and its longer term implications for
inflation. Perhaps they should lift their gaze and look at some of the unusual
developments in financial markets this year.
More than a decade of loose central bank
monetary policies have been overlaid by just over a year of ultra-loose policy
and fiscal responses to the pandemic that dwarf governments’ reactions to the
2008 financial crisis.
The combination of policies has had the
desired effects. The US economy is roaring back, with first-quarter GDP expected to show at
least 6.5 per cent growth and, with help from the base effects (the reference
point is the economic nadir of the pandemic), second-quarter growth could reach
double-digits.
Unemployment is tumbling, retail sales are
booming, manufacturing activity is surging and there’s been a significant uptick in inflation and in
inflation expectations,
which are at their highest levels in eight years.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/canberra-clueless-to-china-s-flexible-diplomacy-20210427-p57mwq
Canberra clueless to China’s
flexible diplomacy
Australia
insists on viewing Beijing in black and white. But that’s ill-matched with
China’s expertise in the grey zone.
Richard McGregor Columnist
Apr
28, 2021 – 2.04pm
What a shemozzle, from start to
finish, with lots of blame to go around.
No, I am not talking about the
short life of the now extinguished Super League of the world’s top football
clubs, but the much longer brawl over Victoria and its dealings with China.
The federal government’s decision
to cancel Victoria’s two agreements with Beijing on the Belt & Road
Initiative was greeted with the cascade of political praise and tabloid
tubthumping that invariably comes with any tough-on-China decision these days.
Even the Victorian Labor
government, with Premier Daniel Andrews - the deal’s architect, absent on
medical leave - accepted the decision meekly.
There can be little argument that
Victoria should not have entered into these agreements. But that doesn’t mean
they should have been unwound in the frontal manner in which they were.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/treasurer-s-jobless-target-is-aimed-at-the-next-election-20210428-p57n9h
Treasurer’s jobless target is
aimed at the next election
With
unemployment falling faster than expected, Josh Frydenberg has recalibrated the
fiscal strategy to rule out spending restraint and make it harder for Labor to
attack the budget.
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Apr
29, 2021 – 8.00pm
In the lead-up to last October’s
federal budget, the unemployment rate sat at 6.8 per cent.
All predictions at the time were
that the rate would worsen before it got better.
In a September pre-budget speech
to outline the government’s fiscal strategy, Josh Frydenberg said he expected
the jobless rate to spike above 6.8 per cent as Melbourne’s crippling lockdown
came to an end and people joined the dole queues.
Further down the track, there was
an expectation it would spike again, or at least plateau, once JobKeeper was
withdrawn at the end of March.
Thus, the Treasurer said, the
government would keep spending on job creation via “temporary, targeted and proportionate” measures until the jobless rate
fell “comfortably below 6 per cent”.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/53-million-budget-lifeline-for-struggling-international-student-sector-20210429-p57nic.html
$53 million budget lifeline for
struggling international student sector
April 30, 2021 — 12.00am
Private higher education
institutes, VET colleges and English language schools will share in a $53
million federal budget lifeline to fund an extra 5000 short course places,
adapt their business models and avoid costly registration fees to help the
sector survive without international students.
Many private colleges were forced to shed jobs or
shutter their operations
over the past year as border closures hit overseas student numbers, prompting
the sector to plead for a rescue package from the federal government.
Federal Education Minister Alan
Tudge will on Friday respond to this call with a package aimed at helping
colleges survive the coming months amid uncertainty about when Australia’s
borders will reopen for international students.
The measures will include $26
million to fund 5000 course places for Australian students across 100 colleges
known as “non-university higher education providers”, which typically enrol
high numbers of international students. The government will spend another $17.7
million to waive registration fees for colleges, English language schools and
up to 3500 VET providers until December.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/new-economic-rule-the-budget-s-the-only-game-in-town-20210429-p57nmi.html
New economic rule: The budget’s
the only game in town
Economics Editor
April 30, 2021 — 10.57am
There’s a trick for governments
trying to manage their economy. Once in a while – maybe every 30 or 40 years –
the rules of the economic game change. What used to be the right thing to do
becomes wrong, and now the right thing is something we’ve long believed was not
the way to go.
Trouble is, the game change is
never announced by thunder and lightning flashes from on high that everybody
sees. Those paying close attention soon get the message, but many people – even
many economists – don’t.
Some people have invested their
careers – and their egos – in the old way of doing things and resist any talk
of change. They stick to their ideology when it’s time for pragmatism and
re-examination of old ideas to see if they still work.
These rare times of change are
dangerous for governments. Those that don’t get the message in time stuff up
and get thrown out.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/new-laws-needed-to-fight-terror-says-asio-boss-mike-burgess/news-story/6b4ec5847ab6e4073060959ac0719132
New laws needed to fight terror,
says ASIO boss Mike Burgess
Ben
Packham
·
9:29PM April 29, 2021
Displaying
Nazi or Islamic State flags and possessing terrorist manifestos would be
outlawed under new powers being sought by the Australian Federal Police to
combat violent extremism.
AFP
Deputy Commissioner Ian McCartney told the parliament’s intelligence and
security committee legislative changes were needed to prevent early-stage
planning of terrorist attacks, the radicalisation of new and younger recruits,
and the harassment of community members.
The
call came as ASIO boss Mike Burgess warned his agency expected a terrorist
attack to occur in Australia within the next year, following two lone-actor
attacks in the past six months.
The
terrorism threat level remained at “probable”, amid credible intelligence that
individuals and small groups had the capability and intent to conduct attacks
within Australia, he said.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/may-11-budget-may-not-be-the-final-word-20210430-p57nr3
May 11 budget may not be the final
word
The
May 11 budget will naturally be seen through the prism of the next federal
election, but there’s a good chance it won’t be the final word.
Phillip Coorey Political editor
May
1, 2021 – 12.01am
While the May 11 budget will
naturally be seen through the prism of the next federal election, there’s a
good chance it won’t be the final word.
Speaking to AFR Weekend
ahead of his first budget as Finance Minister, Simon Birmingham said the door
was wide open to another one before we head to the polls.
He pointed to the 2019 “precedent”
in which Scott Morrison pulled the budget forward by a month to April 2, then
called the election on the back of it.
“There’s obviously precedent and
scope for another budget to occur. The election’s due next year, and exactly
when next year and how our budget fits into, that will be a decision for the PM
at a later stage,” Birmingham said.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-to-splash-1-7-billion-to-slash-childcare-costs-for-families-20210429-p57nka.html
Morrison government to splash $1.7
billion to slash childcare costs for families
By James
Massola
May 1, 2021 — 10.30pm
Parents with more than one child in childcare
will be big winners in next week’s federal budget, with a $1.7 billion package
designed to slash out of pocket costs and get more people back into full time
work.
The government will increase childcare
subsidies and remove the subsidy cap for high income earners. The measures are
designed to encourage more parents to return to working either four or five
days a week and spur Australia’s economic recovery from COVID-19.
“These changes strengthen our economy and at
the same time provide greater choice to parents who want to work an extra day
or two a week,” Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said.
The new measures - which do not go as far as Labor’s promise of universal childcare - particularly target low and middle incomes
families earning $130,000 or less per year and increase the subsidies given to
families with more than one child in childcare.
-----
Health Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/covid-vaccines-may-interfere-with-breast-cancer-screening-20210427-p57mom
COVID-19 vaccines may interfere
with breast cancer screening
Jill
Margo Health editor
Apr 27, 2021 – 9.59am
As COVID vaccines can lead to harmless lumps
in the armpit, women are being advised to rethink the timing of their screening
for breast cancer as these temporary swellings may interfere with the
interpretation of a mammogram or ultrasound image.
Two experts from Queensland University of
Technology, say women should delay a routine breast screen for six weeks
following a vaccine.
After a vaccine in the upper arm, it is
normal for the lymph nodes in that armpit to be activated and swell. This
happens in men and women and is a sign the body is preparing a protective
immune response.
In some, the swelling can be pronounced.
About one in 10 may feel a lump that is not always painful and disappears a
week or two later.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/how-australia-adopted-america-s-bible-of-psychiatry-20210419-p57kjr
How Australia adopted America’s
bible of psychiatry
It’s
time for a robust review into how America’s mental illness diagnostic manual,
which has been fully adopted here, is affecting Australians.
Critics of the American
‘Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders’ say it promotes a
“hyper-medicalised model” that reduces the complexity of human behaviour to a
tick-box list, devoid of empathy.
Jill Margo Health editor
May
1, 2021 – 12.00am
While Australians may decry the
effects of Hollywood, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s on our culture, most are
completely ignorant of the dominant role American psychiatry plays in
contemporary Australia, says mental health researcher Dr Martin Whitely.
“It affects millions of
individuals and their families,” says Whitely, a research fellow in Public
Policy at Curtin University in WA. “The central document used in Australia to
define who is sane and who is mentally ill – the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual
of Mental Disorders (DSM) – has been drawn up entirely by committees in the
US.
“The DSM is one of the most
powerful cultural documents in our country. We have blindly followed America’s
lead and a robust review of its impact on Australians is long overdue.”
He says this document is updated
and expanded by committees of the American Psychiatric Association, to which
Australia doesn’t belong and so has no say.
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/debris-found-from-missing-submarine-no-sign-of-crew-20210424-p57m3e
Crew of missing submarine on
‘eternal patrol’
Emma Connors South-east Asia
correspondent
Updated
Apr 25, 2021 – 5.54pm, first published at Apr 24, 2021 –
11.09pm
Singapore/Jakarta | Indonesians have declared the
53 sailors on the KRI Nanggala to be on “eternal patrol”, acknowledging there
is no hope left for those on board the submarine that has been silent since Wednesday morning.
On Saturday, the Indonesian navy
concluded the vessel was severely damaged after debris was found in the search
area in waters north of Bali. The navy had earlier estimated the KRI Nanggala
would have run out of oxygen by 3am Saturday local time (6am AEST).
In a YouTube statement on Sunday,
President Joko Widodo told the nation: “The Indonesian Navy has raised the
status of KRI Nanggala 402 from lost contact or sub miss, to drowning or sub
sunk.
“This tragedy shocked us all, not
only the family of the 53 crew members, the Hiu Kencana family [submarine honour
corp] and the extended family of the Indonesian Navy but also the entire
Indonesian people.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/as-covid-19-devastates-india-the-fallout-is-felt-around-the-globe-20210425-p57m6v.html
As COVID-19 devastates India, the
fallout is felt around the globe
By Jeffrey
Gettleman and Sameer Yasir
April 25, 2021 — 1.30pm
New Delhi: India’s coronavirus second wave
is rapidly sliding into a devastating crisis, with hospitals unbearably full,
oxygen supplies running low, desperate people dying in line waiting to see
doctors – and mounting evidence that the actual death toll is far higher than
officially reported.
For the fourth consecutive day,
the country set a global record of new infections a day, this time 349,691
cases on Sunday. India alone now accounts for almost half of all new cases.
But experts say those numbers,
however staggering, represent just a fraction of the real reach of the virus’
spread, which has thrown this country into emergency mode. Millions of people
refuse to even step outside – their fear of catching the virus is that extreme.
Accounts from around the country tell of the sick being left to gasp for air as
they wait at chaotic hospitals that are running out of lifesaving oxygen.
The sudden surge in recent weeks,
with an insidious newer variant possibly playing a role, is casting increasing
doubt on India’s official COVID-19 death toll of nearly 200,000, with more than
2000 people dying every day.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/xi-unveils-three-new-warships-in-warning-to-taiwan/news-story/120678e42acc3478ef5981a1446c297d
Xi unveils three new warships in
warning to Taiwan
·
By Didi Tang
·
The Times
·
April 26, 2021
President
Xi has presided over a rare public display of China’s growing naval strength by
unveiling three new warships - one an amphibious helicopter carrier, hailed as
the most advanced vessel in the nation’s fleet - amid growing concern that he
is building a force capable of retaking Taiwan.
The
carrier, named Hainan, is designed as an offensive platform from which to
launch an amphibious or airborne assault and can transport up to 1,200 troops
as well as dozens of helicopters and jump jets. The second vessel, the Dalian,
is a guided-missile cruiser with stealth technology; the third is an upgraded
Type 094A nuclear-powered submarine, the Changzheng-18, believed to be capable
of carrying 12 JL-2 intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The
ceremony, in a military port in the southern city of Sanya, coincided with a
warning from Wang Yi, the foreign Minister, that the US would have to accept
China’s rise if it wanted to coexist peacefully. “Democracy is not Coca-Cola,
with the US producing the syrup and the whole world has one single taste,” he
said.
Xi’s
presence at the commissioning ceremony on Friday follows months of growing tensions in the disputed
South China Sea
and around the self-governing island of Taiwan, which Beijing is vowing to take
back by force if necessary. This is the first time that China has openly
commissioned a nuclear-powered submarine.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/russiachina-union-casts-dark-cloud-over-west/news-story/4a6232e7c60026453742d6a2910b12f8
Russia-China
union casts dark cloud over West
Paul
Dibb
·
1:00AM April 26, 2021
In
the past couple of weeks, Russia has deployed a large, battle-ready military
force on the borders of Ukraine. Elements of that force have now been returned
to barracks, but the threat of a Russian attack on Ukraine can no longer be
dismissed. Neither can the possibility of military co-ordination between
China’s President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin to demonstrate their
rising military power compared with the relative decline of America.
First,
let us examine the size and preparedness of Russia’s military deployment.
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has overseen drills involving more than 10,000
troops and 40 warships in Crimea and the Black Sea. But that is far from the full
story. Between 80,000 and 100,000 troops from the southern and western military
districts of Russia have been deployed on “military drills” along the borders
of Ukraine.
This
large-scale build-up led to concern in Kiev of a repeat of Russia’s attack in
2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea. General Shoigu has described the deployment
of Russian troops as “a snap test of combat readiness” in response to
threatening military activities by NATO. He said Moscow was closely watching
NATO activity, including the current Defender Europe 2021 exercises from the
Baltic to the Black Sea. He announced that Moscow intends to close parts of the
Black Sea to foreign military and other ships for the next six months.
The
Russian troops included 48 battalion groups of tanks, mechanised and artillery
elements, as well as airborne assault divisions and amphibious attack units.
They have been deployed with military field hospitals clearly visible by
commercial satellite photography. Field hospitals are particularly important because
of their preparedness for battle casualties. There is also sufficient air power
deployed, including attack helicopters, ground attack and fighter aircraft, to
establish air superiority over the battlefield and support the ground troops.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/powerful-new-british-aircraft-carrier-to-set-sail-for-asia-next-month-20210426-p57mer.html
Powerful, new British aircraft
carrier to set sail for Asia next month
April 26, 2021 — 11.44am
London: A fleet of British warships and
military aircraft billed as the “largest concentration of maritime and air
power to leave the UK in a generation” will depart next month for visits to
India, Japan, South Korea and Singapore, in a display of Britain’s ambition to
exert a much stronger presence in Asia.
New aircraft carrier HMS Queen
Elizabeth, the most powerful surface vessel in the Royal Navy’s history, will
set sail next month for Asia with eight fast jets on board.
It will be accompanied by six
Royal Navy ships, a submarine armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, 14 naval
helicopters and a company of Royal Marines.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said
the mission aims to show that Britain is “not stepping back but sailing
forth to play an active role in shaping the international system.”
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/as-biden-nears-100-days-polls-show-persistent-partisan-divides-20210426-p57mk6
As Biden nears 100 days, polls
show persistent partisan divides
Giovanni Russonello
Apr
26, 2021 – 6.11pm
Washington | With US President Joe Biden
approaching his 100th day in office this week, a slim majority of Americans
approve of the job he is doing, but he has been unable to overcome the
country’s entrenched partisan divide, according to separate polls released on Sunday
(Monday AEST).
The surveys, from Fox News, NBC
News and ABC News/The Washington Post, found that Mr Biden is considerably more
popular at the 100-day mark than his predecessor, Donald Trump, but his
approval is well behind that of most other modern presidents at this point in
their first terms.
The ABC/Post poll found 52 per
cent of Americans approving of his performance and 42 per cent disapproving.
Comparing those numbers with past ABC/Post and Gallup surveys, he is less
popular at 100 days than any other president since World War II except for Mr
Trump and Gerald Ford (who at this point had just issued a highly unpopular
pardon to Richard Nixon).
The NBC News poll put his approval
at a similar level, 53 per cent to 39 per cent, and the Fox poll, which
surveyed only registered voters, had it at 54 per cent to 43 per cent.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/biden-polls-better-than-50pc-for-first-100-days-in-office/news-story/e3058fad01b14008c8d5f0a5a8a2fcae
Biden polls better than 50pc for
first 100 days in office in heavily partisan divide
·
AFP
·
7:56PM April 26, 2021
More
than half of Americans approve of President Joe Biden’s performance during his
first 100 days in office, three new polls show, but other presidents have done
better.
Mr
Biden’s performance is far higher than Donald Trump achieved in his entire
presidency but, with the exception of his predecessor, every US president since
Gerald Ford has had higher average approval than Mr Biden at this stage.
The
polls show a range of 52-58 per cent of US adults say they approve of the job
Mr Biden is doing, compared with 39-42 per cent who say they disapprove.
The
polls were released just days before Mr Biden’s first address to congress on
Thursday AEST.
The
positive ratings are heavily divided along party lines: about 90 per cent of
Democrats say they approve of Mr Biden’s performance, while only 9 to 13 per
cent of Republicans do.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/narendra-modi-and-the-perils-of-covid-hubris-20210427-p57mo9
India’s plight has worldwide
implications
The lesson of India is to guard against
premature celebration or hubris. The pandemic is not a series of national
crises in which countries compete to see who can deal with the virus better.
This is an interconnected global crisis.
Gideon Rachman
Columnist
Apr 27, 2021 – 9.45am
“It can be said with pride, India ...
defeated COVID-19 under the able, sensible, committed and visionary leadership
of Prime Minister Modi ... The party unequivocally hails its leadership for
introducing India to the world as a proud and victorious nation in the fight
against COVID.”
Those were the words of a resolution passed
by India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata party, just a few weeks ago in February.
But now India is reeling from a surge in cases. Hospitals are running out of oxygen and
acute-care beds. Mass cremations are taking place in makeshift facilities.
Heart-rending pictures of suffering are being broadcast around the world.
Surveys of mortuaries suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths may be two to
five times higher than the official figure of around 2000 a day.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/britain-s-naval-mission-to-asia-not-confrontational-20210427-p57mlr
Britain’s naval mission to Asia
‘not confrontational’
Hans van Leeuwen Europe
correspondent
Apr
27, 2021 – 10.14am
London | Britain’s deployment of its new
65,000-tonne aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth to the South China Sea is
“confident but not confrontational”, the country’s defence minister has said,
as he downplayed any challenge to Beijing.
The carrier strike group, which
also includes a ring of accompanying destroyers, frigates, a submarine, and
tanker and storage ships, will set off next month on a 28-week maiden voyage
encompassing large swathes of the Indo-Pacific, as Britain’s post-Brexit foreign policy “tilts” towards the region.
But Defence Secretary Ben Wallace
told MPs on Monday that “more often than not” the carrier group would be in the
eastern Mediterranean or the Atlantic. And he rowed back from previous British
claims that the imminent mission was intended as a tough message to Beijing.
“China is increasingly assertive,
building the world’s largest maritime surface and sub-surface fleets. However,
we are not going to go to the other side of the world to be provocative,” he
said in a statement to parliament.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/this-is-a-catastrophe-in-india-illness-is-everywhere-20210428-p57mzh
‘This is a catastrophe.’ In India,
illness is everywhere.
As
India suffers the world’s worst coronavirus crisis, the NYT’s New Delhi bureau
chief describes the fear of living amid a disease spreading at such scale and speed.
Jeffrey Gettleman
Updated
Apr 28, 2021 – 9.18am, first published at 9.15am
New Delhi | Crematories are so full of
bodies, it’s as if a war just happened. Fires burn around the clock. Many
places are holding mass cremations, dozens at a time, and at night, in certain
areas of New Delhi, the sky glows.
Sickness and death are everywhere.
Dozens of houses in my neighbourhood have sick people. One of my colleagues is
sick. One of my son’s teachers is sick. The neighbour two doors down, to the
right of us: sick. Two doors to the left: sick.
“I have no idea how I got it,”
said a good friend who is now in the hospital. “You catch just a whiff of
this...” and then his voice trailed off, too sick to finish.
He barely got a bed. And the
medicine his doctors say he needs is nowhere to be found in India.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/us-vessel-moves-to-black-sea-as-russia-holds-naval-drills-20210428-p57myr.html
US vessel moves to Black Sea as
Russia holds naval drills
By Maxim
Rodionov
April 28, 2021 — 5.56am
Moscow: Russia’s Black Sea fleet launched
naval combat exercises on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST) as a US coastguard vessel
headed to the region at a time of heightened tension between Russia and the
West.
Moscow alarmed Kiev and Western
capitals in recent weeks by building up forces along the border with Ukraine, though last week it ordered a withdrawal of some
troops.
Russia’s Black Sea fleet said on
Tuesday its Moskva cruiser would hold live-fire drills with other ships and
military helicopters, Interfax news agency reported.
Hours earlier, US Naval Forces in
Europe said the US Coast Guard vessel Hamilton, a cutter, was moving into the
Black Sea to work with NATO allies and partners in the region.
The RIA news agency quoted
Russia’s defence ministry on Tuesday evening as saying the Hamilton had entered
the Black Sea and was being tracked by the Russian fleet.
-----
https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/egyptian-archaeologists-unearth-110-ancient-tombs-in-nile-delta-20210428-p57myc.html
Egyptian archaeologists unearth
110 ancient tombs in Nile Delta
April 28, 2021 — 3.15am
Cairo: Egyptian archaeologists have
unearthed 110 burial tombs at an ancient site in a Nile Delta province.
The graves, some of which have
human remains inside, were found at the Koum el-Khulgan archaeological site in
Dakahlia province, around 150 kilometres north-east of Cairo, the Egyptian
Tourism and Antiquities Ministry said.
They include 68 oval-shaped tombs
dating back to the Predynastic Period that spanned from 6000-3150BC.
There are also 37
rectangular-shaped tombs from an ancient era known as the Second Intermediate
Period (1782-1570BC), when the Semitic people of Hyksos ruled ancient Egypt.
The remaining five oval-shaped
tombs date back to the Naqada III period that spanned from around 3200BC to
3000BC.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/china-spy-plane-tests-taiwans-air-defences/news-story/066b066307e4bc72d85bf2eb5329f82d
China spy plane tests Taiwan’s air
defences
·
By Didi Tang
·
The Times
·
April 28, 2021
A
Chinese spy plane attempted to fly below Taiwan’s radar detection system as it
gathered intelligence and tested the island’s air defences.
The
Y-8 tactical reconnaissance aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
flew 30 metres above sea level off Taiwan yesterday as part of China’s growing
military manoeuvres around the self-governing island.
Chinese
aircraft have made almost daily incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification
zone since September.
This
was the lowest flight made in an area that acts as a buffer between
international airspace and a nation’s territorial airspace.
Lin
Yin-yu, a professor at the Institute of Strategic and International Affairs at
National Chung Cheng University in southern Taiwan, told the South China
Morning Post that the low-altitude flight served to test the Taiwanese
military’s radar response capability.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/americas-naval-strategy-is-at-sea/news-story/2724a759b16be726ddad409acfca4a84
America’s naval strategy is at sea
·
By Seth Cropsey
·
The Wall Street Journal
·
April 28, 2021
The
US Navy is at sea, figuratively as well as literally. It has 101 ships deployed
around the world — the same number as during the Cold War — yet the entire
fleet is only 297 vessels strong. That’s about half the Reagan-era level of
nearly 600. The consequences of maintaining current global commitments with a
shrunken fleet include long deployments — some sailors spend close to a year at
sea — as well as more maintenance and less time for training.
The
figurative sense in which the Navy is at sea is more important and more
dangerous. The fleet doesn’t have enough ships to meet global commitments, even
as the US faces growing naval competition from China, Russia, Iran and North
Korea. Each of these potential adversaries possesses missiles and aircraft
whose sole purpose is to keep US naval forces at bay. Sixty-four percent of
China’s maritime trade and 40 per cent of its overall trade flows through the
South China Sea, through which US naval ships sail regularly.
Were
hostilities to break out between China and the US, the conflict would be a
naval one. It would test the US ability to move naval and amphibious forces
across the 7,000-mile Pacific moat in time to assist American allies and partners,
deny China’s use of the shipping lanes between it and the Middle East, and
operate effectively to command the South China, East China and Yellow seas. The
Chinese Navy would be a formidable foe. It has long-range missiles, a nascent
aircraft-carrier force and increasingly modern ships and weapons of all
categories, as well as cyber and space capabilities.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/generals-call-for-macrons-overthrow-over-islamist-danger-to-france/news-story/c7400f100f25da2fbbe7569a057c7f8d
Generals call for Macron’s
overthrow over Islamist ‘danger’ to France
·
By Charles
Bremner
·
The Times
·
5:54PM April 27, 2021
Twenty
retired generals have created a political storm in France with a call for a
military takeover if President Emmanuel Macron fails to halt the
“disintegration” of the country at the hands of Islamists.
The
open letter, published in right-wing news magazine Valeurs Actuelles, comes
after a Tunisian Islamist stabbed to death a 49-year-old woman who worked at a
police station in the outskirts of Paris last Friday.
Mr
Macron’s government has condemned the call, led by Jean-Pierre Fabre-Bernadac,
a retired gendarmerie general, comparing it to the failed coup by generals
against president Charles de Gaulle 60 years ago.
The
lead signatory was Christian Piquemal, 80, who commanded the Foreign Legion but
lost his privileges as a retired officer after he was arrested while taking
part in an anti-Islam demonstration in 2016.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/french-army-officers-face-punishment-for-coup-threat/news-story/610874dd8e6a037058f3f8727563b838
French army officers face
punishment for ‘coup’ threat
·
By Charles
Bremner
·
The Times
·
April 28, 2021
Retired
generals and several hundred officers face formal punishment after telling
President Macron that France was risking a military coup for failing to crack
down on Islamists who are causing the country to “disintegrate”.
Florence
Parly, the defence minister, has ordered an investigation into the signatories
to an inflammatory letter written by a former gendarmerie officer with a
far-right background. It was first published on a pro-military website and in
Valeurs Actuelles, a right-wing magazine, last week. Many of those who signed
it, including non-commissioned officers, appeared to be serving members of the
forces.
The
letter, written by Jean-Pierre Fabre-Bernadac, a retired captain, said France
was being destroyed by immigrant Muslim “hordes” from the suburban housing
estates that ring its cities. To avert civil war, it said, required
“intervention by our comrades on active service in the dangerous mission of
protecting our civilised values and the safety of our compatriots”.
It
was condemned by all mainstream parties but supported by Marine Le Pen, leader
of the nationalist National Rally and candidate for the presidential election
next spring.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/fed-strengthens-view-of-us-economy-while-keeping-rates-near-zero-20210429-p57nal
Fed strengthens view of US economy
while keeping rates near zero
Craig Torres
Apr
29, 2021 – 4.15am
Washington | Federal Reserve officials
strengthened their assessment of the economy on Wednesday (Thursday AEST) and
signalled that risks have diminished while leaving their policy interest rate
near zero and maintaining a $US120 billion ($154 billion) monthly pace of asset
purchases.
“Amid progress on vaccinations and
strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have
strengthened,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement following
the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.
“The sectors most adversely
affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has
risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”
The Fed said that “risks to the
economic outlook remain”, softening previous language that referred to the
pandemic posing “considerable risks”.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/is-a-war-coming-between-china-and-the-us-20210428-p57n1k
Is a war coming between China and the
US?
A new novel about 2034 that starts with a
naval battle near Taiwan has unnerving echoes of today’s news headlines.
Thomas Friedman
Contributor
Apr 28, 2021 – 12.28pm
If you’re looking for a compelling read, I
recommend the novel 2034, by James Stavridis, a retired admiral, and Elliot
Ackerman, a former marine and intelligence officer. The book is about how China
and America go to war in 2034, beginning with a naval battle near Taiwan and with
China acting in a tacit alliance with Iran and Russia.
I’m not giving it all away to say China and
the US end up in a nuclear shootout and incinerate a few of each other’s
cities, and the result is that neutral India becomes the dominant world power. (Hey,
it’s a novel!)
What made the book unnerving, though, was
that when I’d put it down and pick up the day’s newspaper I’d read much of what
it was predicting for 13 years from now:
Iran and China just signed a 25-year
cooperation agreement. Vladimir Putin just massed troops on the border of Ukraine while warning the US that anyone who
threatens Russia “will regret their deeds more than they have regretted
anything in a long time”. As fleets of Chinese fighter jets,
armed with electronic warfare technology, now regularly buzz Taiwan, China’s
top foreign affairs policymaker just declared that the US “does not have the
qualification ... to speak to China from a position of strength”.
-----
https://www.afr.com/technology/apple-crushes-wall-st-targets-to-spend-115b-buying-its-own-shares-20210429-p57nbb
Apple crushes Wall St targets, to
spend $115b buying its own shares
Stephen Nellis
Apr
29, 2021 – 6.48am
Apple posted sales and profits far
ahead of Wall Street expectations and announced a $US90 billion ($115 billion)
share buyback as customers continued to upgrade to 5G iPhones and snapped up
new Mac models with Apple’s house-designed processor chips.
Sales to China nearly doubled and
results topped analyst targets in every category, led by $US6.5 billion more in
iPhone sales than predicted and Mac sales about a third higher than estimates.
Apple chief executive Tim Cook said the company sees an economic recovery
coming.
“I think the US will be very
strong. Certainly, all indications that I see would be very positive on the US
economy,” Cook told Reuters in an interview.
The results came the midst of a
global semiconductor shortage that has hobbled US automotive manufacturers but
that appears to have left Apple, a major chip buyer known for its supply chain
expertise, unscathed.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/one-hundred-days-that-shook-america-from-its-delirium-biden-s-bold-and-fast-agenda-20210428-p57n0y.html
One hundred days that shook America
from its delirium: Biden’s bold and fast agenda
Bruce
Wolpe
Senior fellow at the United States Studies
Centre and former political staffer.
April 29, 2021 — 5.30am
We have not seen this tableau before: two
women seated behind the US President as he addresses Congress on Thursday
morning, Australian time, on the eve of his 100th day in office. The next in
line of succession are indeed Vice-President Kamala Harris and House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi. And the VP is a woman of colour. It will be the most striking
presentation of the country’s leadership since Barack Obama, the first African
American elected president, made his maiden address to Congress in 2009.
President Joe Biden delivers this speech at
the apex of his popularity and momentum so far. Biden’s decades of experience
show. His cabinet is confirmed and working. His staff is rock solid. Biden’s
agenda is clear and straightforward: end the pandemic; restore the economy;
rebuild the country’s infrastructure; expand healthcare, education and income
security; advance racial equity and voting rights; solve immigration and end
the crisis on the southern border; make real change on gun control and climate
change; lead the world again.
There are no dramas. The nation’s collective
blood pressure is down markedly since Trump, “the former guy”, left office.
Same in Australia. We no longer wake up wondering what the hell the President
did overnight.
The White House is back to normal. Biden and
Harris get briefed every morning by the intelligence services. The press
secretary gives daily media briefings, and she does not tell lies from the
podium. After 100 days, no major officials have been fired, or interviewed by
the FBI. Biden’s speeches rarely last more than 20 minutes. The COVID-19 advice
comes from medical experts; there are no recommendations to use bleach in
fighting the virus. No weekend crisis tweets from a gilded room in Florida.
This President’s tweets are short and to the point on policy and priorities.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-fed-remains-dovish-even-as-the-biden-binge-hits-us6-trillion-20210429-p57neu.html
The Fed remains dovish even as the
Biden binge hits $US6 trillion
Stephen
Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
April 29, 2021 — 11.46am
The world’s most influential central bank has
left its ultra-dovish monetary policies unchanged after the latest meeting of
the US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee. While that was the outcome
anticipated by financial markets, there were some hints of a slight hardening
of its tone.
The Fed chairman, Jerome Powell and the
official statement from the FOMC made it clear that US rates still remain at or
near zero, and the Fed will continue to hoover up $US120 billion ($154 billion)
of bonds and mortgages a month until it becomes clearer that the pandemic is
under control in the US; that the unemployment rate has fallen back
significantly and the inflation rate is above 2 per cent “for some time.”
But there were some subtle shifts in
language. The pandemic is no longer a “considerable” risk; indicators of
economic activity and employment had improved; sectors most adversely affected
by the virus, while still weak, had strengthened; inflation had risen, albeit
largely reflecting “transitory” factors.
Powell also acknowledged that the Fed’s
monetary policies had contributed to markets being “a bit frothy” and to some
assets prices being high.
------
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/mea-culpa-economist-explains-how-he-got-his-forecast-so-wrong-20210428-p57n96
How I got my ‘double dip
recession’ forecast so wrong
This
top forecaster with 50 years in the business made the worst mistake of his
career by underestimating the power of vaccines, impatient Americans and
Bidenomics.
Stephen Roach Contributor
Apr
29, 2021 – 12.12pm
I have been in the economic
forecasting business for close to 50 years. I got my start in the early 1970s,
on the research staff at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, before taking
my crystal ball to Wall Street for over 30 years. For more than a decade, I
have been in the ivory tower at Yale – still dabbling in forecasting from time
to time but mainly teaching, writing, and speaking.
Over that long stretch, my
forecasting record has been mixed. There were a couple of memorable calls at
the Fed, where I warned of a sharp recession in the mid-1970s and intractable
inflation later in the decade.
But I look back with the greatest
pride at my collaboration with Larry Slifman in building the Fed’s first “black
box” forecasting model that I believe is still largely in use today.
We worked around the clock for
several weeks to program linked computer-based spreadsheets (unheard of back
then) as a replacement for the single-iteration monthly exercise previously
done manually on a Monroe calculator. Our so-called judgmental approach was the
point-counterpoint to the Fed’s renowned large-scale econometric model.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-his-first-100-days-joe-biden-s-bold-progressive-turn-stuns-nation-20210430-p57no3.html
In his first 100 days, Joe Biden’s
bold, progressive turn stuns nation
By Matthew
Knott
April 30, 2021 — 11.46am
Washington: When Joe Biden delivered his
inaugural address outside the Capitol on a frosty day in January, he declared
that America faced a “winter of peril and possibility”.
“Few periods in our nation’s history have
been more challenging or difficult than the one we’re in now,” Biden said.
Just a fortnight earlier, furious supporters
of Donald Trump stormed the Capitol in a bid to overturn what they saw as a
fraudulent election. The country was recording 195,000 new coronavirus
infections a day, as well as 3000 deaths.
When Biden returned to the Capitol this week
for his first presidential address to Congress, he painted an altogether sunnier picture.
“America is on the move again,” he said.
“Turning peril into possibility, crisis into opportunity, setback into
strength.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/europe-s-recession-shows-it-pays-to-unleash-money-on-pandemic-20210501-p57nzy.html
Europe’s recession shows it pays
to unleash money on pandemic
By Peter S. Goodman
May 1, 2021 — 10.44am
London: Economic reports released on both
sides of the Atlantic have painted very different pictures of how the United
States and Europe are recovering from the pandemic. The lesson: along with
vaccines, it pays to unleash enormous amounts of public money in the face of a
livelihood-destroying health crisis.
European countries provided less relief and
ended up in a so-called double-dip recession in the first three months of the
year, a reality confirmed on Friday by an official estimate showing the eurozone economy shrunk by 0.6 per cent.
That came a day after the United States
disclosed its economy expanded by 1.6 per cent over the same period after
substantial public expenditures aimed at stimulating growth.
The recession in the 19 nations that share
the euro currency reflects far less aggressive stimulus spending and a botched
effort to secure vaccines that has left many countries contending with
continued restrictions on daily life.
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I
look forward to comments on all this!
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David.