June 24, 2021
Edition
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A pretty
quiet week in the US with the G7 and NATO meetings over and the focus moving back
to domestic issues.
In the UK the
COVID situation seems to be getting worse with the delta variant seemingly
taking over both the UK and the world. The Russians and The Royal Navy seem to be unhappy with each other over Crimea. Watch this space!
In Australia
ScoMo is in quarantine while the last week of parliament happens for the next six
weeks or so! The big worry is a worrying COVID outbreak in Sydney. Not clear how it will play out!
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Major Issues.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-looks-to-howard-s-2001-victory-for-an-election-strategy-20210610-p57zxx
PM looks to Howard’s 2001 victory for an election strategy
With
predictions of a worsening election climate looming, pundits predict Scott
Morrison will call an election this year and base his strategy on John Howard’s
2001 campaign.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Jun 11, 2021
– 2.54pm
The 2001
federal election is remembered as the Tampa election: the campaign when a group
of asylum seekers in a stranded Indonesian fishing vessel were rescued in the
Indian Ocean by the captain of the MV Tampa, a Norwegian container ship.
Amid the
escalation of fear about national security after the 9/11 attacks in the US,
the incident sparked the ugly escalation of border protection rhetoric and
spawned the famous John Howard campaign launch declaration that “we will decide
who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come”.
People
arriving in boats, the dark suggestions went, could possibly be terrorists,
among other things. Four young boys among the 433 asylum seekers on the Tampa
were subsequently taken in by New Zealand.
A quarter of
Australians say they are worse off than a year ago, despite all the talk about
the economic bounce back and a buoyant job market.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/g7-delivers-for-morrison-on-china-20210614-p580q9
G7 delivers for Morrison on China
Hans van Leeuwen Europe correspondent
Jun 14, 2021
– 6.58am
Carbis Bay,
Cornwall | The G7 leading democratic market economies have taken up the cudgels
against China for the first time, in a boost to Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s
quest for the
West to “have Australia’s back”.
Mr Morrison’s
trip to Britain for the G7 appears to have paid off, with the summit’s
communique specifically pledging to tackle China’s market-distorting economic
practices and its authoritarian actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
Prime
Minister wins G7 response to China trade threats.
The leaders
also name-checked the South China Sea dispute, and promised to mobilise $US100
billion ($130 billion) for an infrastructure scheme
to rival Beijing’s controversial Belt & Road Initiative.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/economists-are-slowly-revealing-the-weaknesses-of-their-rational-theories-20210613-p580m5.html
Economists are slowly revealing the weaknesses of their ‘rational’
theories
Ross Gittins
Economics
Editor
June 14, 2021
— 5.45am
Economics is
changing. It’s relying less on theorising about how the economy works, and more
on testing to see whether there’s hard empirical (observable) evidence to
support those theories.
Advances in
digitisation and the information revolution have made much more statistical
information about aspects of economic activity available, and made it easier to
analyse these new “data sets” using improved statistical tests of, for
instance, whether the correlation between A and B is causal – whether A is causing
B, or B is causing A, or whether they’re both being caused by C.
But another
development in recent decades is economists losing their reluctance to test the
validity of their theories by performing experiments. Let me tell you about two
new examples of empirical research by Australian academic economists, one
involving data analysis and the other a laboratory experiment.
We see a lot
of calls for reform that take the form: change taxes or labour laws in a way
that just happens to benefit me directly, and this will make “jobs and growth”
so much better for everyone.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/anglican-church-must-rethink-doctrine-that-has-left-a-trail-of-devastated-lives-20210612-p580j4.html
Anglican church must rethink doctrine that has left a trail of devastated
lives
By Jane
June 14, 2021
— 5.00am
At the clergy
wives’ conferences I used to attend as the wife of an Anglican minister, the
high-profile Sydney Anglican leader, the Reverend Phillip Jensen, preached to
us repeatedly about the cornerstone doctrine of male headship and female
submission to male authority.
The topic
recurred year after year, with excruciating detail – about submitting sexually,
about prioritising our minister husband’s “needs” in every way, about taking on
all the household and family load, without expecting it to be shared – because
that would be taking our husbands away from the important work of gospel
ministry.
At
Moorewomen, the group for the wives of clergy in training at Moore Theological
College, the same themes also recurred regularly – never say no to his demands
for sex, never expect him to miss a ministry opportunity to help care for a
sick child, never complain, always be ready to give and give and give, as that
was our contribution to the work of God’s kingdom.
So I listened
in disbelief last week when a panelist on ABC’s The Drum, the Reverend Michael
Jensen, Phillip’s newphew, responded to presenter Julia Baird’s suggestion that
the Sydney Anglican Church could perhaps consider a five-year “pause” or
moratorium on teaching male headship and spend that time getting a grip on the
church’s problem with domestic violence, a problem highlighted in the newly
released National
Anglican Family Violence Project report.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/pm-must-tell-the-truth-on-the-economy-20210614-p580qx
PM must tell the truth on the economy
Unless
productivity rises, a re-elected Morrison government will have to break its
spending promises. Neither party can shirk micro reform any longer.
Craig Emerson Columnist
Jun 14, 2021
– 11.36am
By the end of
this month the Treasurer will have released Australia’s fifth intergenerational
report. Since
productivity growth has contributed 95 per cent of the improvement in
Australians’ material living standards since 1901 the report’s productivity
projections will reveal the level of concern within the government and Treasury
about Australia’s long-term economic prospects. The stress-o-meter should be
flashing red.
Australia’s
previous intergenerational reports, dating back to 2002, seek to look four
decades ahead. They simply assume Australia’s productivity growth in the coming
40 years will repeat our performance over the preceding 30 years. That averages
1.5 per cent per annum. But it includes the productivity boom years of the
1990s created largely by the Hawke-Keating program of microeconomic reforms.
From the turn
of the century, Australia’s productivity performance began to slide and the
longer it has gone on the worse it has gotten.
Over the
period from 2015 until the COVID-19 pandemic struck, actual productivity growth
was worse than the low-productivity scenario included in the 2015
intergenerational report. That is, we performed worse than the worst-case
scenario, including some periods during which productivity didn’t increase at
all – it actually went backwards.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/politicians-are-elected-to-lead-not-hide-behind-the-boffins-20210614-p580u8
Politicians are elected to lead, not hide behind the boffins
Governments
have made a mantra out of following expert advice. Their job is to weigh up
expertise, not to pick some and ignore the rest.
Saul Eslake Contributor
Jun 14, 2021
– 2.39pm
Australia has
for the most part been well-served by the willingness of the federal, state and
territory governments of both major political persuasions to be guided by
advice from epidemiologists and other medical experts in their responses to
COVID-19.
That approach
stands in stark contrast to that of the Trump administration in the US and, at
least initially, the Johnson government in Britain (among others). And the
results – 1179 cases and 36 deaths per million population in Australia compared
with 100,356 cases and 1793 deaths per million in the US, and 66,134 cases and
1,886 deaths per million in the UK – bear out the wisdom of Australian
governments’ willingness to follow “medical advice” (although there have been
other factors involved in these differences).
However, more
than a year after the onset of the pandemic, it may be appropriate to question
the continued unquestioning reliance on “the medical advice” as the rationale
for every government decision pertaining to the pandemic.
In the first
place, such advice is far from uniform or monolithic. All along, the advice
given to premiers and chief ministers by their respective chief medical
officers has clearly differed – as evident from the differing willingness of
various state governments to enforce lockdowns in response to virus outbreaks.
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/14/as-news-corp-savages-its-enemies-the-abc-must-strive-for-unity-which-makes-it-the-perfect-target-
As News Corp savages its enemies, the ABC must strive for unity. Which
makes it the perfect target …
Jonathan Holmes
It’s a cliché to
say that we all inhabit news silos these days but in general, people pay to
read stories that reflect and reinforce their views
Mon 14 Jun 2021 16.01 AEST
Last modified on Mon 14 Jun 2021 16.59
AEST
The other day I got angry enough about
an editorial in the Australian newspaper – which castigated in vicious terms
two of the ABC’s most accomplished journalists – that I wrote a letter to the
editor. A waste of time, of course: the letter wasn’t published.
So I posted it on Twitter, where it got thousands of likes, replies and
retweets, almost all of them supportive. But as Ann Braine, a former teacher
from Perth, tweeted: “Unfortunately those who should read it, won’t.”
She’s right. And they won’t read this
either. The Guardian is not part of the diet of readers of the Australian, and
vice versa.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/economic-nirvana-is-here-just-ask-the-sharemarket-20210614-p580vk
Economic nirvana is here, just ask the sharemarket
What’s not to
like? Money is nearly free, and everything is hot, hot, hot. Only inflation can
upset this paradise.
Vimal Gor
Jun 15, 2021
– 5.00am
I’ve heard it
said that if you’re an optimist, become an equity fund manager. For those prone
to worrying, become a bond fund manager.
My colleagues
in equities are always looking for the blue sky while I am hunting for clouds
and rain. My morose attitude has held me in good stead many times over my
career, most notably going into the GFC and early last year as COVID-19 spread
from China. However, most of the time equities grind higher
and the clouds, unfortunately, prove harmless.
Right now,
though, the sun is shining and everything is hot hot hot! US equities are at
all-time highs, Australian
house prices are up almost 10 per cent this year and superannuation
balances are soaring. Owners of capital in risk assets are having a bonanza.
The rich are getting richer, often earning more doing nothing, than actually
working.
As a bond
manager, Vimal Gor’s instinct for dark clouds means he’s not celebrating record
asset prices like equity managers are. Simon Letch
This should
start to make me worried, but what I worry about this time is different to the
past 25 years.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/what-magellan-learnt-from-warren-buffett-20210614-p580qu
What Magellan learnt from Warren Buffett
The most
important thing when assessing the quality of a stock is whether it possesses
an economic moat, the group’s head of research Vihari Ross says.
Alex Gluyas Markets
Reporter
Jun 15, 2021
– 5.00am
When
assessing stocks for Magellan Financial Group’s global equities portfolios,
group head of research Vihari Ross simply won’t consider a business if it
doesn’t possess an economic moat.
The concept,
which was coined by investment legend Warren Buffett, is the most important
hurdle a company must get past to win a dollar of Magellan's $110 billion of funds
under management.
“When it
comes to the international fund, and Magellan more broadly, it’s the most
important factor when assessing quality,” says Ross. “What it really means for
us is, if a business doesn’t have a moat as we define it, then it will not be
on our investment menu at all.”
In Magellan’s
world, a business is a castle, so analysts must assess the robustness of the
fortress, how wide and deep the moat is, and whether competitors or
“crocodiles” lurk below.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/there-s-an-eerie-calm-in-markets-despite-disturbing-numbers-20210614-p580tx.html
There’s an eerie calm in markets despite disturbing numbers
Senior business columnist
June 14, 2021 — 11.56am
Last
week’s headline US inflation number was the highest in 13 years and core
inflation was the highest in nearly 30 years. Even though the numbers were
higher than expected, Wall Street posted a
new record and US bond yields fell.
What
those reactions signal is that the markets have bought into, without
reservations, the US Federal Reserve Board’s line that the surge in inflation is
“transitory.”
Whether
or not that remains the case might, in the near term, be determined by what the
Fed says (it is unlikely to actually do anything) at Wednesday’s meeting of the
Fed’s Open Market Committee.
At
its last meeting in April “a number of participants” suggested that if the
economy continued to rebound it might be appropriate “at some point in upcoming
meetings” to start planning for a tapering of the central banks’ purchases of
bonds and mortgages, currently running at $US120 billion ($156 billion) a
month.
Any
discussion at this week’s meeting of tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing
a program – a program that has seen the Fed’s balance sheet blow out from just
over $US4 trillion before the pandemic struck to more than $US8 trillion – has
the potential to roil markets that are, for the moment, exhibiting an eerie
calm in the face of conventionally disturbing numbers.
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https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/dr-copper-s-mixed-signals-suggest-the-global-economy-is-at-a-delicate-moment-20210615-p58151.html
Dr Copper’s mixed signals suggest the global economy is at a delicate
moment
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior
business columnist
June 15, 2021
— 11.59am
If the copper
price is a forward-looking barometer of economic conditions, it’s recently been
giving off mixed signals. That could suggest that we’re at something of a
watershed for the global economy.
Copper has
historically been a lead indicator for the global economy because of its acute
sensitivity to ebbs and flows in global industrial activity. That’s why it has
attracted the honorific “Dr Copper.”
Not
surprisingly it crashed last year, falling more than 24 per cent as the onset
of the pandemic brought global activity almost to a halt.
Subsequently,
as the global wave of pandemic relief and stimulus was unleashed and China’s
economy – which consumes about half the copper industry’s global output –
rebounded sharply, the price started climbing.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/conned-on-defence-its-time-to-fix-the-mess/news-story/10105e9e65f054bbed5761c523c5a03a
Conned on defence: now it’s time to fix the mess
Robert
Gottliebsen
·
7:10AM June 15, 2021
Upgrading the
old Collins class submarines is an essential first step towards solving the
diabolical defence mess facing the nation.
Given the
heightened security concerns, unless we reverse the series of disastrous
defence decisions made in recent years our long-term future as a nation will be
bleak.
Because we
had the wrong people in charge we have been “conned” by a series of deceptions
of unprecedented global magnitude. We are set to spend hundreds of billions of
dollars and get little worthwhile in exchange - and what we do get will be too
late.
There is no
other country in the world that that has made defence mistakes on such a grand
scale. With the help of some of our best defence people (they are not in the
defence department) I will go through the three main grand deceptions and the
best solutions still available to us. None of the choices are pleasant.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/sub-experts-urge-scott-morrison-to-go-on-attack/news-story/f298f457c014fd9dde7938471d6b390f
Sub experts urge Scott Morrison to go on Attack
Ben Packham
·
9:51PM June 14, 2021
Some of the
nation’s most experienced submariners are urging the government to slash years
from the delivery of the nation’s $90bn Attack-class submarines by designing
the boats around the clock and dramatically reducing their construction
schedule.
The plan,
obtained by The Australian ahead of Scott Morrison’s meeting this week with
French President Emmanuel Macron, calls for the government to pile pressure on
France’s Naval Group to “expedite Attack” by requiring the company to run a design
team in each time zone.
It also calls
for the government to push the capabilities of its soon-to-be-built digital
shipyard in Adelaide, reducing the construction “drum beat” to one year per
boat after the first Attack-class sub is “debugged”.
The government
would have to shoulder additional risk but the reward would be the first Attack
commissioned as early as 2030 – rather than the scheduled 2034 – and
potentially another eight produced by 2040.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mps-suggest-radical-plans-to-tackle-housing-affordability-crisis-20210615-p58166.html
Liberal MPs suggest radical plans to tackle housing affordability crisis
By Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
June 16, 2021
— 5.00am
Liberal MPs
are demanding the federal government consider radical plans to bring the
runaway housing market under control after new figures showed the value of the
nation’s homes soared by a record $450 billion in three months.
Sydney MP
John Alexander said some of his own government’s policies were feeding into
dysfunctional property market while Melbourne MP Tim Wilson said the tax system
has to be overhauled to bring some balance back to house prices.
Data from the
Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Tuesday showed dwelling prices
jumped by 5.4 per cent through the March quarter, the largest quarterly lift
since the end of 2009.
All cities
reported an increase, led by Sydney (up by 6.1 per cent). Canberra prices
jumped by 5.6 per cent, in Perth they were up by 5.2 per cent while in
Melbourne they increased by 5.1 per cent.
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https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/a-new-dawn-australia-and-britain-agree-on-historic-trade-deal-20210615-p5817c.html
‘A new dawn’: Australia and Britain agree on historic trade deal
By Bevan Shields, Latika Bourke and Rob Harris
June 15, 2021
— 7.06pm
London:
Working holiday visas will be extended for Australians up to the age of 35 in
the historic trade deal just agreed with Britain after Prime Ministers Boris
Johnson and Scott Morrison offered last-minute concessions over dinner at
Downing Street.
On Tuesday
night AEST, Morrison and Johnson held a joint press conference to announce the
in-principle agreement - which could boost the Australian economy by up to $1.3
billion each year and offer exporters new options
to pivot away from the volatile Chinese market.
Australian
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announce the
details of a free trade agreement.
Morrison said
it was the most ambitious agreement that Australia had struck since its deal
with New Zealand.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-west-is-not-coming-to-australia-s-rescue-we-need-new-alliances-20210615-p5817m.html
The West is not coming to Australia’s rescue. We need new alliances
Sam Roggeveen
Contributor
June 16, 2021
— 9.02am
The summits
of the G7 group and the NATO alliance over the past few days have produced an
avalanche of headlines about a growing anti-China mood among Western nations
and an appetite to stand up to Beijing’s assertiveness.
Let’s hope
the Australian government is not taking these headlines too seriously, because
the harsh truth is that there will be no Western alliance to contain China, and
no united democratic front against Beijing’s authoritarianism. The sooner we
realise this and build it into our foreign and defence policies, the safer we
will be.
It’s
important to stress that this is not an argument about Western “decline”, which
is a vastly overstated prospect. The European Union is a massive and vibrant
economic actor, and NATO is one of the most successful alliances in modern
history. The United States remains fantastically powerful, and that won’t
change in our lifetime. It has a resilient and growing economy, favourable
demographics (lots of young people), tremendous capacity for innovation, a huge
military, and it is surrounded by vast oceans to the east and west and friendly
neighbours to the north and south.
But of
course, China is huge too. Even if we accept all the pessimistic prognoses
about China’s economic future – ageing population, ballooning debt,
environmental disasters – it is safe to assume that a country which already
boasts the world’s second-largest economy will hold on to that mantle, and
might even ascend to first place.
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https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/after-50-years-the-a-reit-evolution-rolls-on-20210616-p581hs
After 50 years, the A-REIT evolution rolls on
Once upon a
time, investors might have seen REITs as a safe, income-producing,
set-and-forget sector. It was never really the case; it certainly isn’t now.
Robert Harley Contributor
Jun 17, 2021
– 5.00am
Australia’s listed
real estate investment trusts quietly passed a milestone on April 28 with
the 50th anniversary of the launch of the first A-REIT, now the GPT Group.
In that
half-century of boom, bust and pandemic, the
A-REITs have grown into a $133 billion sector – today’s 49 A-REITs account for
about 7 per cent of the ASX
– and have changed substantially in structure and focus.
More change
is coming, as the REITs compete for global capital, as new real estate
opportunities emerge, and as the sector leads the way on sustainability and
governance.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jobless-rate-tumbles-to-pre-pandemic-level-abs-20210617-p581t6.html
Jobless rate tumbles to pre-pandemic level: ABS
By Shane Wright
June 17, 2021
— 11.50am
Australia’s
unemployment rate has tumbled to its lowest level since the start of the
coronavirus pandemic after the country created more than 115,000 jobs in May.
The Australian
Bureau of Statistics reported the jobless rate dropped 0.4 percentage points to
5.1 per cent. It was last at that level in February last year.
The
under-employment level fell by 0.3 percentage points to 7.4 per cent, the
lowest that has been since January 2014. It is now 1.4 percentage points below
the rate at the start of the pandemic, with the largest drop among women.
The figures,
which largely pre-date the Victorian COVID-19 lockdown, were driven by a
115,200 lift in employment, of which 97,500 were full-time positions.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/rba-governor-philip-lowe-warns-of-businesses-low-wage-mindset/news-story/dea4a76d7eb56663a10562a95ceaff0a
RBA governor Philip Lowe warns of businesses’ low wage ‘mindset’
Patrick Commins
June 17, 2021
Reserve Bank
governor Philip Low says a “laser-like focus on costs” by businesses who would
prefer to “ration output” rather than bake in higher costs is preventing the
powerful jobs recovery from flowing through to pay rises.
Dr Lowe said
there was a “predominant mindset” in corporate Australia that “if profits can’t
be increased by expanding or by raising prices, then it has to be achieved by
lowering costs”.
“This mindset
can be helpful in making businesses more efficient, but it also has the effect
of making wages and prices less responsive to economic conditions.”
In a speech
in Toowoomba, Queensland, on Thursday, Dr Lowe noted the “V-shaped recovery” in
farm output, which has surged 40 per cent since the middle of last year to
reach a record high, alongside farm exports.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/uk-legal-boost-for-murugappan-family/news-story/52d89b5ec4801c80bee02cfcc7b09ed9
UK legal boost for Murugappan family
Paige Taylor
Adeshola Ore
10:10PM June
16, 2021
A British
court’s rejection of Australian intelligence about Sri Lanka has given
supporters of the Murugappan family hope that they will not be deported.
The Tamil
family at the centre of a political storm over Australia’s hard line on boat
arrivals was reunited in Perth on Tuesday, as Immigration minister Alex Hawke
continues his review of their case.
On Wednesday,
human rights lawyer Alison Battisson said it was highly relevant for Mr Hawke
to consider that three judges of the UK Upper Tribunal had in May made strong
criticisms of the information Australia has relied on when rejecting asylum
seekers from Sri Lanka.
The tribunal
decided not to use the 2019 report from the Department of Foreign Affairs and
Trade, which claims Sri Lankans face a low risk of torture.
The judges
wrote: “None of the sources are identified; there is no explanation as to how
the information from these sources was obtained.”
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/super-shake-up-assured-as-reforms-pass-senate-20210617-p581rz
Super reforms pass after government dumps ‘backdoor’ veto power
Michael Read Reporter
Jun 17, 2021
– 12.48pm
The Morrison
government’s superannuation
reform package cleared the Senate on Thursday after the government dropped
a contentious power that critics feared would have given the government
sweeping authority to intervene in the core business of super funds.
The Your
Future, Your Super package passed 34 to 30 after the government secured the
support of senators from One Nation, Centre Alliance and independent Jacqui
Lambie.
Centre
Alliance senator Stirling Griff told The Australian Financial Review that the
powers “were excessive and unwarranted and there was no way we would support
what was proposed until that was resolved”.
“The rest
were sensible reforms that will benefit future retirees and hold the super
funds to account,” he said.
The vote
paves the way for the biggest shake-up to Australia’s $3 trillion super sector
in years. The bill will now head back to the lower house, where its passage is
highly likely.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-is-hedging-on-asylum-politics-so-is-labor-20210616-p581mw
Morrison is hedging on asylum politics. So is Labor
The
government is hedging on the politics and still believes the hardline view –
that most voters are hostile to boat people – is the dominant one. So is Labor.
Phillip Coorey Political
editor
Jun 17, 2021
– 8.00pm
It was nine
years ago this month that Parliament experienced one of its more unedifying
episodes.
As a
search-and-rescue operation was under way north of Christmas Island after
another boatful of asylum seekers foundered and people drowned, the Greens and
the Coalition joined forces to block a measure that may have halted or slowed
the flow of boats.
We never
found out because, just as the Greens and Coalition joined forces in December
2009 to block a price on carbon and send energy policy into a political death
spiral for more than a decade, their blocking of
the Malaysia plan is remembered, at least within Labor, as another sliding
doors moment. And not in a good way.
It was June
2012 and boats had been arriving in ever-increasing numbers since Labor, upon
coming to power in November 2007, stupidly abolished the Howard government’s Pacific Solution.
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-want-nation-to-stick-to-its-values-in-china-dealings-20210617-p581q2.html
Australians want nation to ‘stick to its values’ in China dealings
By David Crowe
June 18, 2021
— 5.00am
Australians
want a strong response to China over growing tensions on security and trade,
with 62 per cent recently surveyed saying the nation should “stick to its
values” despite the risk of retaliation from a major trading partner.
A majority of
Australians believe the country should call out Beijing over its approach to
Hong Kong and Taiwan,
retaliate against Chinese trade sanctions and speak out on human rights abuses
against the Uighur people.
But only 45
per cent support a stance that warns of armed conflict with China, with a new
survey revealing strong objections on this point amid a vigorous political
debate about the federal government’s rhetoric.
With
diplomatic relations between Canberra and Beijing at their lowest point in
decades, 54 per cent of respondents agree with a federal decision to
cancel the Victorian government’s agreement with China on its Belt and Road
infrastructure initiative, while 8 per cent oppose it and 38 per cent are
undecided.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-morrison-government-has-a-serious-weakness-the-nats-20210617-p581xc
Scott Morrison has a serious weakness: the Nats
Resources
Minister Keith Pitt’s declaration that the Nationals have not committed to net
zero by 2050 is effectively a declaration of war.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Jun 18, 2021
– 4.59pm
There was a
certain pre-election nervous frisson abroad in Canberra ahead of the last
sitting week before Parliament rises for the winter break.
Labor has
launched into a couple of scare campaigns – mostly on social media – about
Medicare and the prospect of pensioners across the board being put on a
cashless welfare card.
Liberals in
small-L seats, like such as Katie Allen in Higgins, have suddenly found a voice on issues like the Murugappan family
from Biloela. And the Liberal Party secretariat has started sending out
letters begging for donations.
Everyone
seems to be getting into “clear the decks” mode: a time when you don’t want
distractions and divisions in the way.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/interest-rate-rise-in-early-2023-westpac-20210618-p582az
Interest rate rise in early 2023: Westpac
John Kehoe Economics editor
Jun 18, 2021
– 5.02pm
Westpac chief
economist Bill Evans has brought forward his interest rate rise prediction to
early 2023, after the “major game changer” fall in the unemployment rate to 5.1
per cent this week.
“It
underscores the strength of momentum in the economy and endorses the range of
other measures pointing to a very strong labour market,” Mr Evans said in a
research note on Friday.
“The recovery
is now clearly into a self-sustaining upswing and the need for emergency
stimulus policies has eased significantly.”
The Reserve
Bank of Australia’s latest guidance is that wages
and inflation would not be strong enough to raise the record low 0.1 per
cent cash rate until 2024 at the earliest.
After the
creation of 115,000 jobs in May, revealed on Thursday, bank bill futures
implied an RBA cash rate rise in late 2022.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-world-the-g7-forgot-about-20210617-p581xb
The world the G7 forgot about
Australia now
has a number on its back in the international game. That’s more reason to live
up to Western promises being made to the virus-hit developing world.
John McCarthy
Contributor
Jun 18, 2021
– 2.05pm
At global
summits, nobody gets everything they want. The trick is to persuade your
audience – particularly your domestic one – that you have got most of it.
At the end of
a busy week, most participants at the G7, the NATO summit, and Joe Biden’s
meetings with European Union leaders could go home legitimately claiming wins.
The only
glaring difference of view was a Brexit issue between Britain and the EU,
relating to Northern Ireland (with Biden siding with the EU). But that is
principally an important Euro-Atlantic question, not a global one.
Biden came to
Cornwall looking good – with recent Pew polling showing a dramatic uptick since
his inauguration as president in the way the United States is regarded
internationally.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/we-are-not-just-saving-veterans-we-might-be-saving-ourselves-20210617-p581xe
We’re not just saving veterans; we might be saving ourselves
Former
soldiers are often traumatised by the loss of tribal identity they suffer. But
that is a problem in our wider society as well.
Tanveer Ahmed
Contributor
Jun 18, 2021
– 11.33am
The concept
of psychological trauma is inextricably linked to war. The upcoming royal commission into
veterans’ suicides will be an examination of the correlation. But what it
may ultimately reveal are deeper insights into our society.
The terms of
reference for yet another royal commission are being bashed out. Its symbolic
component isn’t being denied by the government.
“The royal
commission will provide an important opportunity for healing and to rebuild
trust, unite our veteran community, and restore hope,” said the Veterans
Affairs Minister, Darren Chester.
There is no
doubt a correlation exists between being a veteran and having a higher risk of
suicide, despite the government spending billions each year on mental
health-related payments.
This has been
especially true in the past two decades.
Across the
Western world, there has been an inverse relationship between combat deaths and
servicemen claiming trauma and disability benefits.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/national-archives-poised-to-get-funding-to-save-disintegrating-records-20210618-p5826z.html
National Archives poised to get funding to save disintegrating records
By Shane Wright and Katina Curtis
June 19, 2021
— 5.00am
The National
Archives will get a funding injection from the federal government to stop
vulnerable parts of Australian history disintegrating, including war-time
speeches by John Curtin and records of the Bounty mutineers.
The Age and
The Sydney Morning Herald can reveal the government is close to finalising a
package to help the National Archives immediately salvage documents, film and
other at-risk materials while also safeguarding its long-term role.
Historians,
writers and international experts have raised fears about the state of the
Archives after The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald revealed in April the extent of problems facing the
institution.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/banking-regulators-poised-to-tighten-lending-standards-to-cool-market-20210618-p5823u.html
Banking
regulators poised to tighten lending standards to cool market
By Shane Wright and Clancy Yeates
June 19, 2021
— 5.00am
The Reserve
Bank and the nation’s prudential regulator are poised to tighten lending
standards in the face of soaring property prices and growing household debt as
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says higher house prices are good for the economy.
The
Commonwealth Bank, the nation’s biggest lender, revealed it would increase the
interest rate it uses to assesses new loan applications, while the RBA and the
Australian Prudential Regulation Authority are considering ways to temper some
of the heat across the national market in coming weeks.
Sydney’s
median house value has climbed more than 15 per cent through the first 5 months
of the year to $1.2 million while in Melbourne the median price is now at
$908,000.
CoreLogic’s
daily dwelling value index shows Sydney property values have increased by
another 1.5 per cent through the first 17 days of June while in Melbourne they
are up by 0.9 per cent.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-nightmare-looms-even-as-frydenberg-prepares-his-election-pitch-20210618-p582ce.html
Australian nightmare looms even as Frydenberg prepares his election pitch
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
June 19, 2021
— 5.30am
Josh
Frydenberg now has enough talking points to get him all the way to election
day. The economy is recovering strongly. As we learned this week, unemployment
is back to its pre-pandemic level, and the minimum wage is
to go up by 2.5 per cent. Bonus: the super guarantee levy is about to be
hiked to 10 per cent. This is pretty good for a country that is still emerging
from its worst downturn in a generation.
How good is
the economy? “After the first recession in nearly 30 years, the Australian
economy is roaring back,” the Treasurer told the House on Thursday. “An economy
that is bigger, an economy that is stronger, an economy that is leading the
world.
“Today, we
saw unemployment fall for the seventh consecutive month, to 5.1 per cent,
smashing market expectations. Participation was up. Underemployment was down.”
All true.
Of course,
Frydenberg has had a little help, as the Reserve Bank governor, Philip Lowe,
pointed out this week: “It is also worth recalling that the economic recovery
is being underpinned by unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy measures that
will not last forever.” Okay, a tremendous amount of help.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/a-pm-running-on-trump-time-risks-getting-left-behind-by-biden-20210618-p58258.html
A PM running on Trump time risks getting left behind by Biden
George Megalogenis
Columnist
June 19, 2021
— 5.25am
Scott
Morrison thought he had a relatively easy choice to make on climate change at
the G7 summit in Cornwall last weekend. In his mind, there was an acceptable
position between action and inaction that would assure Australia’s allies of
our good intentions and appease his government’s junior Coalition partner,
which wants nothing to do with the G7’s agenda.
To that end,
the Prime Minister used the summit to sign new partnerships on clean energy
technology and hydrogen with Japan and Germany, respectively the world’s third
and fourth largest economies, while refusing to sign up to the G7’s ambitious
targets to halve greenhouse emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by
2050. He also stayed on in London to strike a free trade agreement with Boris
Johnson, Britain’s first such deal since leaving the European Union. In any
other age, Morrison’s overseas trip would be big news; a sign of Australian
relevance on the global stage.
Unfortunately,
Joe Biden had no time for the PM’s attempt to chart a middle course on climate
change and pointedly avoided a one-on-one meeting with Morrison. It was not the
greatest snub an Australian leader has faced from a US president on climate
change. Barack Obama, who Biden served as vice president, famously embarrassed
Tony Abbott when the Liberal prime minister hosted the G20 summit in Brisbane
in 2014. Obama used a speech to students at the University of Queensland urging
Australia to step up on climate change.
Abbott could
console himself that Obama’s agenda was being blocked by a
Republican-controlled Senate, and that Canada, the country most like ours in
terms of its economic dependency on resources, was still a member of the
sceptics club at the time. But Morrison does not have that partisan luxury.
Unlike Obama, Biden leads a credible, and accelerating, global push for net
zero with every rich nation, including Canada, on board.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/australias-defence-strategy-must-be-focused-on-china-china-china/news-story/7eb0ff98b68d6597022c10be5e8ccee5
Australia’s defence strategy must be focused on China, China, China
Greg Sheridan
12:00AM June
19, 2021
Australia is
following the wrong defence strategy. It is a mistake of perhaps mortal
consequence. It involves a profound misreading of our national circumstances,
and the continuation of old policies and old habits of thinking which are no
longer relevant.
Scott
Morrison and Defence Minister Peter Dutton are leading a move away from the old
paradigm, but it is too slow, and too little.
Everything
tells us our strategic circumstances have changed gravely for the worse,
because of China’s new capabilities and new aggressiveness. But we are still
muddling along with the old defence force structure underpinned by the old assumptions.
This is
potentially deadly.
To put it at
its plainest, we are continuing to pursue “a balanced force” when we urgently
need to switch to an asymmetric approach which would impose massive costs on an
aggressor.
-----
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/the-real-reason-house-prices-keep-rising-20210615-p5819s
The real reason house prices keep rising
Tax
incentives and low interest rates get most of the blame for surging house
prices in Australia but supply is just as important.
John Kehoe Economics editor
Jun 18, 2021
– 1.08pm
Sydney
property developer Mark Bainey is deeply frustrated by the red tape from state
and local government planning and zoning that’s fuelling housing affordability
challenges for home buyers.
At Parramatta
in Sydney’s west, his Capio Property Group acquired land to build a simple
12-apartment complex. He had allowed six to 12 months for the state and local
governments to grant development approval but the back-and-forth with
bureaucrats took 2½ years.
It’s a common
story for most of his apartment and townhouse developments, which typically
take two to three years for approval in NSW. “In a geographically constrained
market like Sydney, it’s pushing prices up because there is not enough supply,”
Bainey says.
“As a
developer, we have the capacity to build what the market demands, but if there
is not enough supply, price pressures are only going up,” he says. “The state
and local governments are pushing up house prices for first home buyers because
they are not approving enough stock.”
-----
Coronavirus And Impacts.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-doubles-down-on-hermit-kingdom-approach-to-covid-19-20210613-p580l3
PM doubles down on ‘hermit kingdom’ approach to COVID-19
Hans van Leeuwen
Europe correspondent
Jun 13, 2021
– 5.14am
Carbis Bay,
Cornwall | Prime Minister Scott Morrison has vowed that Australia will “take
its own path” on fighting COVID-19, signalling that a first-hand view of
Britain’s more liberal approach of “living with coronavirus”
had not convinced him.
“I’d rather
be living in the arrangements we have in Australia, than anywhere else in the
world,” he said, doubling down on the international travel
restrictions and the risk of new lockdowns that comes with the Australian
policy.
Mr Morrison
told reporters on Saturday that although Britain’s rapid and extensive
vaccination rollout had apparently kept a check on hospitalisation rates and
fatalities, the country was experiencing “very high numbers of cases”.
“At this
stage of the pandemic, it is not clear where it goes next. And the additional
strains that we’re seeing coming in through the pandemic, as we see that the
pandemic rage through the developing world, and the potential for new strains
and other things to occur - it means there is still much we don’t know,” he said.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/clogged-emergency-departments-need-a-system-overhaul-20210615-p5818e.html
Pandemic hangover overwhelms already-stressed NSW health system
By Lucy Carroll
June 16, 2021
— 12.00am
Emergency
departments are clogged with seriously ill patients and paramedics are
responding to record numbers of life-threatening cases as doctors warn the
after-effects of people delaying medical care in NSW due to COVID-19
restrictions are pushing the system to crisis point.
At one Sydney
hospital, about 25 per cent of emergency patients — those needing the highest
level of care behind people who need immediate resuscitation — were seen within
the clinically recommended 10 minutes for treatment to start.
Emergency
departments are at some of the busiest levels on record, with 759,157 people
attending in NSW from January to March this year, about 86,000 more patients
than in the same period in 2016, according to the latest Bureau of Health
Information (BHI) quarterly report.
People needing Triage 2 care — those with imminently life-threatening
conditions — increased by more than 6 per cent to 99,816.
“We are
getting busier and busier which is partly a hangover from lockdowns and delays
in people getting routine medical care after COVID-19 hit,” said Dr Clare
Skinner, president-elect of the Australian College of Emergency Medicine.
“There was a slight pause during 2020 but now we are back to pre-pandemic
levels with older patients, people with mental health conditions and children
needing the most care.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/blood-samples-support-theory-covid-19-was-in-us-before-christmas-2019-20210616-p581d3.html
Blood samples support theory COVID-19 was in US before Christmas 2019
By Nancy
Dillon
June 16, 2021
— 6.31am
New York:
A new study of blood specimens collected from 24,000 Americans found evidence
that COVID-19 likely was present in the US as early as Christmas Eve 2019.
The new
retrospective research, published online Tuesday by the journal Clinical
Infectious Diseases, found that nine people spread across Illinois,
Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Mississippi had detectable COVID-19
antibodies in their bloodstreams when they participated in the government’s All
of Us Research Program early last year.
The positive
specimen collected from one Illinois-based patient on January 7, 2020, suggests
“the virus may have been present in Illinois as early as December 24, 2019,” a
full month before Illinois confirmed its first official case of COVID-19 on
January 24, 2019, the study found.
The
disclosure comes as
coronavirus deaths surpass 600,000 in the US.
-----
Climate Change.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-earth-is-warming-faster-than-expected-nasa-20210618-p5825d.html
The Earth is warming faster than expected: NASA
By Tik Root
June 18, 2021
— 3.20pm
Washington:
The amount of heat Earth traps has roughly doubled since 2005, contributing to
more rapidly warming oceans, air and land, according to new research from NASA
and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“The
magnitude of the increase is unprecedented,” said Norman Loeb, a NASA scientist
and lead author of the study, which was published this week in the journal
Geophysical Research Letters. “The Earth is warming faster than expected.”
Using
satellite data, researchers measured what is known as Earth’s energy imbalance
- the difference between how much energy the planet absorbs from the sun, and
how much it’s able to shed, or radiate back out into space.
When there is
a positive imbalance – Earth absorbing more heat than it is losing – it is a
first step towards global warming, said Stuart Evans, a climate scientist at
the University at Buffalo. “It’s a sign the Earth is gaining energy.”
-----
Royal Commissions And The Like.
-----
No entries in this section.
-----
National Budget Issues.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/debts-day-of-reckoning-is-coming/news-story/7f2816a8425ca1f2d40448268dd2a837
Debt’s day of reckoning is coming
A reality
check is due any day now, and word from Canberra’s insiders is it will be a
‘rude shock’ to a reform-shy political class.
By Tom Dusevic
June 12, 2021
The federal
budget has virtually receded from public attention, yet there’s a long tail of
what one observer described as the “triumphalism” of Josh Frydenberg’s May 11
speech. Amid a tumble of strong economic data, the Morrison government’s
yearning for validation, from front pages to credit watchers, endures.
The economy
is bigger than it was pre-pandemic. More people are in work, too. But in case
you missed it, the government launched another phase of its “Our Comeback”
advertising campaign to tell us how far we’ve come and why.
Short answer:
$291bn in direct economic support. Future taxpayers, thank you for your
service.
At some
point, today’s consumption is going to show up in higher taxes or lower
incomes, or both, because we haven’t adequately planned for or invested in our
future, such is the opportunity cost of stimulus. That’s even before we
consider spending quality.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/aussie-house-prices-rise-at-fourth-fastest-rate-in-oecd-over-20-years-20210614-p580sr
Aussie house prices rise at fourth-fastest rate in OECD over 20 years
John Kehoe Economics editor
Jun 14, 2021
– 7.00pm
Planning and
zoning restrictions are a key problem behind Australia recording the
fourth-fastest house price growth out of the world’s advanced economies over
the past 20 years, according to a new report by the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development.
Local
households are the second-most indebted in the world and it takes six years
longer to afford a home in Australia: 16.4 years of disposable income for a
100-square-metre dwelling versus 10.4 years for the OECD average.
The
cross-country analysis exposes how expensive Australian homes have become in
the past two decades and that restrictive state and local government
regulations are exacerbating the price pressures.
Paris-based
OECD director of policy studies in the economics department, Luiz de Mello,
said low interest rates had contributed to rising house prices.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/unorthodox-monetary-policy-here-to-stay-rba/news-story/19cfbd4deba6c0a9b1796a3a47846137
Unorthodox monetary policy here to stay: RBA
Patrick Commins
·
June 15, 2021
The Reserve
Bank has effectively ruled out ending its unprecedented $200bn bond purchasing
program as scheduled in September, despite a national economy that is
“transitioning from recovery to expansion”.
Minutes from
the most recent RBA board meeting on June 1 showed the board “remained
committed to doing what it reasonably could to support the Australian economy,
and would maintain highly supportive monetary conditions until its goals for
employment and inflation were achieved”.
The RBA’s
commitment “to doing what it reasonably could to support the Australian
economy” dovetails with a federal fiscal strategy aimed at driving unemployment
below 5 per cent.
At the June
meeting the central bank retained the cash rate at its record low of 0.1 per
cent, and Tuesday’s RBA minutes reiterated that monetary policymakers would not
consider hiking until inflation was “sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent
target range” – a prospect that was “unlikely” to be achieved until 2024 “at
the earliest”.
-----
Health Issues.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/greg-hunt-says-no-to-health-insurers-creep-into-usstyle-managed-care/news-story/8ae2416345930d37eddb9a84011496f0
Greg Hunt says no to health insurers creep into US-style managed care
Jared Lynch
5:46PM June
17, 2021
Federal
Health Minister Greg Hunt has put Australian health funds on notice that the
government does not support the local industry creeping into US-style managed
care, as concerns grow that insurers are already seeking to influence the
delivery of healthcare services.
In the past
year, Medibank has taken stakes in hospitals in Sydney and Melbourne, while
Newcastle-based insurer NIB has proposed forming a “buying group” to manage
contracts with healthcare providers and insurers.
While
Medibank says its decision to take minority stakes in hospitals will preserve
clinical autonomy, with doctors having the final say on care, and the
Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has granted draft authorisation
to NIB, health groups warn the moves are a step towards US-style managed care.
A spokeswoman
for Mr Hunt said Australia’s health system relied on clinical autonomy and the
government would protect that.
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-message-from-the-g7-is-that-the-west-has-its-limits-with-china-20210613-p580ln
The message from the G7 is that the West has its limits with China
What was
critical at the G7 summit was the message it sent out that the liberal
democracies – the West– have finally been stirred into action by a belligerent
and hostile China.
Alexander Downer Columnist
Updated Jun
13, 2021 – 10.21am, first published at 9.50am
There
are two sorts of summits: bilateral and multilateral. Bilateral summits can be
critical fuel for the engine of diplomacy but multilateral summits are another
story.
Put
5, 10, 15 or even more leaders together in a room and you won’t get much. It’s
not often that a multilateral summit of political leaders leads to anything
very useful.
Normally,
officials and ministers have pre-prepared agreements to announce, there is an
array of photo opportunities carefully choreographed by a bevy of media
advisers, messaging is sent out which has been carefully crafted on the back of
focus group research and everyone flies home until the next summit.
Call
me cynical, but I have attended many multi-lateral summits and that’s what’s
happened: APEC summits, East Asian summits, climate change summits,
Commonwealth summits, trade summits. They’re more about politics than they are
about substance. Usually but not this time.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/morrison-powers-up-the-anglosphere-to-face-china-threat-20210613-p580l8
Morrison powers up the Anglosphere to face China threat
Hans van Leeuwen Europe correspondent
Jun 13, 2021
– 8.43am
Carbis Bay, Cornwall | Prime Minister Scott Morrison
has used his visit to the G7 leaders’ summit to breathe new life into the
Anglosphere, joining a three-way meeting with US President Joe Biden and
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to discuss Indo-Pacific security.
The
40-minute three-way meeting, which appeared opportunistic rather than
pre-planned, did not produce a full statement or any tangible outcome.
In
a three-paragraph statement issued afterwards, the trio said they had “agreed
that the strategic context in the Indo-Pacific was changing and that there was
a strong rationale for deepening cooperation”.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/biden-welcomes-new-israeli-government-as-netanyahu-ousted-20210614-p580qg
Biden welcomes new Israeli government as Netanyahu ousted
Susan
Heavey
Jun 14, 2021
– 6.48am
Washington |
US President Joe
Biden said the United States remained committed to Israel’s security and
would work with its new government after Israel’s parliament ended Benjamin Netanyahu’s
12-year run as prime minister on Sunday.
In a
statement that made no mention of Mr Netanyahu, Mr Biden welcomed the new
government coalition led by nationalist Naftali Bennett and sought to reaffirm
US-Israel ties.
The White
House said Mr Biden spoke with Mr Bennett on Sunday “to offer his warm
congratulations”.
Mr Biden
“expressed his firm intent to deepen cooperation between the United States and
Israel on the many challenges and opportunities facing the region”, the White
House said. “The leaders agreed that they and their teams would consult closely
on all matters related to regional security, including Iran.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/south-korea-can-now-build-missiles-able-to-reach-beijing-with-us-blessing/news-story/5ab7c3c10475649c05278a75ce4f796b
South Korea can now build missiles able to reach Beijing, with US blessing
By Andrew
Jeong
5:38PM June
13, 2021
For decades,
the US kept tight limits on how far and how potent South Korea’s ballistic
missiles could be, reflecting concerns that Seoul might unilaterally raise
tensions with nearby China, North Korea and Russia.
But last
month, the Biden administration removed the final limits on Seoul’s missile
program, abolishing what had been a roughly 500-mile cap on South Korea’s
ballistic-missile range. It is a key change: Seoul’s missiles, in theory, can
now fly far enough to strike Beijing, Moscow or anywhere else.
Kim Jong Un’s
regime in North Korea has been expanding its nuclear arsenal, and China’s
military strength has been growing. The U.S., without provoking others by
moving in its own weapons, can see a close ally develop technology that
strengthens its own regional military deterrence. Seoul gets back its full
nonnuclear weapons sovereignty after long advocating for such a move.
Having
better-armed allies will help Washington, especially in light of worsening
disputes with Beijing over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and ups the ante for
China to participate in North Korean diplomacy, security experts say.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/dramatic-call-by-us-bond-investors/news-story/6b227152d1ddfd4bc9a93a3fa07ef558
Dramatic call by US bond investors
Robert
Gottliebsen
June 14, 2021
Arguably the
best US futures indicator, the US 10-year bond rate, has been telling us the same
story for the past 15 months – expect higher inflation and interest rates as a
result of the pandemic recovery and American government stimulations.
Some 15
months ago, bond interest rates started their journey from 0.3 per cent to rise
above 1.6 per cent causing huge losses in the bond market as prices fell to
deliver those higher rates. As was predicted, in recent months the bond market has
been taking a breather and trading between 1.5 per cent and 1.6 per cent.
But then the US economy recorded its biggest surge in
inflation in nearly 13 years with consumer prices rising in May by 5 per
cent over the 2020 levels. In addition, overall prices jumped at a thumping 9.7
per cent annualised rate over the three months ended in May.
The bond
bears, believing they had been vindicated, had champagne glasses at the ready
as they waited for the bond yield to rise. Instead it fell to 1.428 per cent –
its lowest level since March – before recovering marginally.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/public-bonhomie-china-nuance-and-brexit-bickering-filled-g7-menu-20210614-p580u9
Public bonhomie, China nuance and Brexit bickering filled G7 menu
After four
years of Donald Trump’s presidency, when diplomatic shouting matches were more
likely features at G7 summits than cosy alfresco dining, there was a collective
sigh of relief.
George
Parker and Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe
Updated Jun
14, 2021 – 12.20pm, first published at 12.12pm
Carbis Bay,
Cornwall | The images of Joe Biden and fellow G7 leaders chatting at close
quarters on a Cornish beach as they enjoyed barbecued lobster may not have been
the best advert for social-distancing rules in times of pandemic. But the beach
cookout was designed to send another message: under renewed American
leadership, the world’s leading western democracies are back in business.
After four
years of Donald Trump’s presidency, when diplomatic shouting matches were more
likely features at G7 summits than cosy alfresco dining, there was a collective
sigh of relief. “This is the first time in four years they’ve actually got
along,” said one British official.
The warmth
towards Biden was reflected in the bonhomie between the US President and
France’s Emmanuel Macron, walking along the white sand of Carbis Bay, arms
draped around each other. “The US is back,” Biden said. Macron shot back: “Yeah
definitely.”
UK Prime
Minister Boris Johnson, revelling in the role of host after Brexit, called the
three-day meeting “historic”. After the disruption of the Trump years, there
was genuine agreement on global issues among the leaders of what Johnson called
the Democracy XI: the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and guests from Australia,
South Korea and South Africa. India’s Narendra Modi attended virtually.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-dismissive-but-wary-of-g7-narrative-20210614-p580ta
China defiant, but wary of G7 narrative
China says
the days when a ‘small group of countries’ dictates global decisions are long
gone. But it also acknowledged the risk of a unified front against it.
Michael Smith China
correspondent
Updated Jun
14, 2021 – 2.17pm, first published at 2.09pm
Beijing was
its typical defiant self in the face of the West’s agreement to toughen its
stance against the country’s human rights abuses, economic coercion and
regional aggression, but it also acknowledged the risk of a unified front
against China.
US President
Joe Biden also suggested a global infrastructure plan to rival Xi
Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative and called for a phase-two probe into
the origins of the coronavirus was one of cool indifference.
An editorial
published in China’s hawkish Global Times newspaper on Monday was both
dismissive and reflective in the face of the G7’s communique.
“This signals
China will face more pressure exerted by Western platforms,” the editorial said.
“The US will
make a more co-ordinated effort to crack down on China and more countries will
join hands with the United States.”
-----
Snub or no snub, Morrison got what he came for
Australia,
along with India, South Korea and South Africa, was invited to the G7 for one
reason – China. And the outcome of the G7 was good for Australia.
Phillip Coorey Political
editor
Jun 14, 2021
– 2.56pm
There is some
conjecture over why Boris Johnson gatecrashed what was widely-anticipated as
being the first
face-to-face bilateral meeting between Joe Biden and Scott Morrison.
Labor and
Morrison’s other detractors have portrayed it as a diplomatic dressing down by
a US President unimpressed with Australia’s refusal thus
far to commit to net zero emissions by 2050, and with a Prime Minister
deemed to be too close to Donald Trump.
The latter
reason lacks substance given there was none closer to Trump than Johnson.
Nevertheless,
had the evolution of a bipartisan meeting into a tripartite gathering been a
snub of sorts, it would have been an extremely churlish act by the US, the
worst since Bill Clinton left John Howard waiting in the rain outside the Oval
Office in 1999.
And that was
after Clinton imposed tariffs on Australian lamb the night before Howard
arrived in Washington DC, knowing the Australian PM wanted to lobby against the
intended move.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/nato-trains-its-sights-on-china-20210614-p5810h
NATO trains its sights on China
Hans van Leeuwen
Europe correspondent
Jun 15, 2021
– 1.46am
London |
Leaders of the trans-Atlantic military alliance NATO have backed up the West’s
toughening line on the strategic challenge from China, vowing to work together to
address Beijing’s “coercive policies” and “assertive behaviour”.
The meeting
of 30 leaders from Europe and North America in Brussels on Monday followed up
the weekend G7-Plus
meeting in Britain, attended by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, where the
world’s biggest democratic economies squared up to China for
the first time.
“China is
increasingly running up against NATO, whether it be in Africa, in the
Mediterranean, or more specifically in the Arctic, as they are trying to engage
more,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on the NATO summit
sidelines.
“We need to
make sure that as an alliance, even though we are much more Atlantic than
Pacific, we are aware of the global influences that China is having.”
While the
summit communique explicitly labels NATO’s traditional bugbear Russia as a
threat, on China the language does remain softer - reflecting many Europeans’ desire to leave the
door visibly ajar for cooperation, particularly on climate change and arms
control.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/democracy-on-the-defensive-as-g7-leaders-dither-over-china-20210614-p580u1.html
Democracy on the defensive as G7 leaders dither over China
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
June 15, 2021
— 5.00am
So long as
Donald Trump was at the table, the G7 had an excuse. Trump was a saboteur of unity
and a vandal of democracy. It was just three years ago that he walked out on a
G7 summit, rejected the group’s communique, derided his Canadian host, Justin
Trudeau, as “dishonest and weak” and threatened most of the leaders present
with more tariffs.
Now he’s
gone, the G7 has no excuse for inaction. So what did we see at the weekend’s
summit?
We saw the
leaders of the world’s seven richest democracies awakening to the fact that
they face a challenge of historic proportions from the Chinese Communist Party.
This overshadowed everything. But the leaders ended up in a bugger’s muddle
over what to do about it.
The G7 – in
order of economic heft the US, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and
Canada –invited four extras. The so-called “extension partners” were India,
South Korea, Australia and South Africa, also in order of economic weight.
While these guests participated in the meetings, they’re not members; their
signatures do not appear on the G7 communique.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/china-raising-stakes-with-new-world-of-warfare/news-story/4bef71511bf5ff8d0d695455be08a680
China raising stakes with ‘new world of warfare’
·
By Larisa Brown and Bruno
Waterfied
·
The Times
·
June 15, 2021
China is
“changing the nature of warfare” by investing heavily in modern military
capabilities such as robots, facial recognition software and artificial
intelligence, the head of Nato has warned.
Jens
Stoltenberg, the secretary-general, said China’s military build-up and coercive
behaviour presented security risks to the western alliance.
In a press
conference following the Nato summit yesterday in Brussels, he said the
alliance must spend more on defence to beef up its defences and counter threats
from Beijing and Russia. He also described relations with Russia as at their
lowest point since the end of the Cold War.
Boris
Johnson, who travelled to meet world leaders in Brussels, insisted that the
alliance did not want a new Cold War with China, but said it did pose
“challenges”.
The meeting
came as it emerged that Porton Down, Britain’s top-secret research laboratory,
was hiring hundreds of scientists, including specialists in space and
artificial intelligence, to counter threats from China and Russia. Over the
next three months jobs will be advertised for about 300 defence scientists to
work for Porton Down, also known as the Defence Science and Technology
Laboratory, at its site near Salisbury and other locations across the country
after it received extra funding.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/the-delphic-message-from-the-bond-market-20210615-p58168
The Delphic message from the bond market
The bond
market offers contradictory answers as to why rational investors would buy
bonds with yields below the inflation rate.
Karen Maley Columnist
Jun 16, 2021
– 5.00am
Top US
central bank officials face a difficult challenge this
week in working out how to reconcile the message to financial markets that
monetary policy will remain extremely accommodative, despite the unexpectedly
strong rebound in US economic activity, and the surge in inflation.
Investors are on edge
as they await this week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s interest
rate-setting committee.
That’s
because there is a widespread expectation that US central bank officials will
broach the difficult subject of how the Fed should go about scaling back its
massive $US120 billion ($156 billion) monthly asset purchase program, a process
known as “tapering”.
Fed boss
Jerome Powell has signalled he will proceed very gingerly and will signal the
central bank’s plans for “tapering” its bond purchases well in advance.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/trump-pushed-justice-department-to-help-him-overturn-election-20210616-p581ce
Trump pushed Justice Department to help him overturn election
MICHAEL
BALSAMO and COLLEEN LONG
Jun 16, 2021
– 2.45am
Washington DC
| During the last weeks of his presidency, Donald Trump and his allies
pressured the Justice Department to investigate unsubstantiated claims of
widespread 2020 election fraud, despite his
former attorney general declaring there was no evidence of it, newly
released emails show.
The emails,
released Tuesday by the House Oversight Committee, reveal in new detail how Trump,
his White House chief of staff and other allies pressured members of the US
government to challenge the 2020 election over false claims, even though
officials at Homeland Security and Justice, as well as Republican election
leaders across the country, repeatedly
said there had been no pervasive fraud. Former Attorney General William
Barr, a longtime Trump loyalist, was among those who said there was no evidence
of such fraud.
The emails
also show the extent to which Trump worked to enlist then-acting Attorney
General Jeffrey Rosen in his campaign’s failing legal efforts to challenge the
election result, including suggesting filing a brief with the US Supreme Court.
The ones sent
to Rosen include debunked conspiracy theories and false information about voter
fraud. Trump’s lies about the election helped spur on the violent mob that
stormed the US Capitol on January 6 in a failed effort to stop the
certification of Joe Biden’s victory.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/geopolitical-game-on-as-china-and-russia-partner-up/news-story/d452ce5d720b9777cf49e1e92387c808
Putin, Xi friendship ‘driven by their hatred for West’
Russia
seeks to regain its global prestige as China aims to be the hegemonic power of
Asia. This conjoining of Beijing and Moscow’s strategic ambitions increases the
potential for conflict in the world.
By Paul Dibb
June 16, 2021
The final
communique on Sunday of the Group of Seven summit expressed serious concerns
about China’s and Russia’s destabilising behaviour and said the world’s most
powerful democracies would defend a free and open Pacific based on the rule of
law.
The situations
across the Taiwan Strait and the East and South China seas were singled out for
concern. But in my view, for European members of NATO, Russia will remain their
priority concern – not least because of Moscow’s display of overwhelming
military force along Ukraine’s borders recently
The growing
challenge from China tends to crowd out attention to other enduring threats,
including those coming from the military alignment of Moscow and Beijing. We
need to address both challenges simultaneously.
In 1997 Zbigniew
Brzezinski, the national security adviser to president Jimmy Carter, said the
most dangerous scenario to the US would be a grand coalition of China and
Russia, an “anti-hegemonic” coalition united not by ideology but by
complementary grievances. He argued it was imperative that no challenger
emerged capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of challenging the US for global
dominance.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/where-is-trump-now-florida-coast-becomes-republican-power-base-20210615-p58142
Where is Trump now? Florida coast becomes Republican power base
Lured south
by sunshine, golf and money, the former president’s allies and hangers-on have
formed an alternate universe that revolves around Mar-a-Lago.
Joshua Green
Jun 16, 2021
– 12.06pm
Since he left
Washington in turmoil in January, Donald Trump has spent the bulk of his brief,
contentious post-presidency holed up in what Karl Rove calls his “Fortress of
Solitude” – Mar‑a‑Lago, his private club in Palm Beach. It’s an odd sort of
isolation: Although he’s largely cut off from the outside world, Trump is
hardly alone.
Tossed from the White House,
banished from Facebook and Twitter, Trump has never seemed more distant from
public consciousness. But while he can’t broadcast out, those same platforms
offer a surprisingly intimate glimpse into his new life, thanks to the prolific
posting of the club’s guests.
At every
moment of his day, Trump is bathed in adulation. When he enters the dining
room, people stand and applaud. When he returns from golf, he’s met with
squeals and selfie requests. When he leaves Mar-a-Lago, he often encounters
flag-waving throngs organised by Willy Guardiola, a former professional
harmonica player and anti-abortion activist who runs weekly pro-Trump rallies
in Palm Beach.
“Give me four
hours and I can pull together 500 people,” Guardiola says. Trump recently
invited the self-proclaimed “biggest Trump supporter in the country” for a
private consultation at his club.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/more-fed-members-raise-2022-rate-rise-prospects-20210617-p581ou
Fed signals first rate rises will come in 2023
Matthew Cranston
United States correspondent
Jun 17, 2021
– 5.58am
Federal
Reserve officials expect to start raising interest rates next year with two
hikes by 2023, as the central bank revised up inflation and economic growth
forecasts.
The more
hawkish outlook triggered a sell off in US 10-year bonds, pushing yields up and
smashing the Australian dollar which immediately fell 1 per cent to US76.28¢
from US77.07¢ before the announcement.
“Inflation
has come in ahead of expectations in the last few months,” Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome Powell said after its two-day meeting. “Is there a risk that
inflation could be higher than we think? Yes.
“There is a
lot of uncertainty. We need to see how things evolve in coming months. This is
an extraordinarily unusual time.”
The Fed now
expects headline inflation to be 3.4 per cent for this year, up from its
forecast just three months ago of 2.4 per cent, while core inflation is
expected to be 3 per cent, up from the bank’s March forecast of 2.2 per cent.
However, both
of these inflation forecasts drop back down next year.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/economic-nationalism-joe-biden-style-20210616-p581ig
Economic
nationalism, Joe Biden-style
Biden won’t
start many trade wars, but he won’t sign many trade deals either.
Paul Krugman Contributor
Jun 16, 2021
– 1.58pm
If you’re
under 50, you probably don’t remember when Japan was going to take over the
world. But in the late 1980s and early ’90s, many people were obsessed with
Japan’s economic success and feared American decline.
The
supposedly non-fiction sections of airport bookstores were filled with volumes
featuring samurai warriors on their covers, promising to teach you the secrets
of Japanese management. Michael Crichton had
a best-selling novel, Rising Sun, about the looming threat of Japanese
domination, before he moved on to dinosaurs.
The policy
side of Japanophilia-Japanophobia took the form of widespread calls for a
national industrial policy: government spending and maybe protectionism to
foster industries of the future, notably semiconductor production.
Then Japan
largely disappeared from America’s conversation – cited, if at all, as a
cautionary tale of economic stagnation and lost decades. And we entered an era
of self-satisfied arrogance, buoyed by the dominance of US-based technology
companies.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/biden-politely-reads-riot-act-to-putin-20210617-p581s1
Biden politely reads riot act to Putin
After more than
two decades in power, this Russian bear was unlikely to change its habits.
Biden’s aim is to coax and cajole Putin into a moderately less dangerous
stance. That goal is more difficult than it sounds.
Edward Luce Columnist
Jun 17, 2021
– 10.32am
Summitry,
contrary to a former British prime minister, is nothing like tennis. The
outcome is rarely “game, set and match”. By the wide-eyed standards of Joe
Biden’s last four predecessors, all of whom held ill-fated summits with
Vladimir Putin, Biden
went into this one with low expectations.
There were no
illusions about his meeting of minds with the Russian leader, let alone souls.
The modesty of Biden’s goal — to stabilise relations with America’s chief
military adversary — conveyed a realism that eluded earlier presidents.
All of which
is far less exciting for the world media. Biden did not praise Putin’s ability
to restore Russian freedom and prosperity, as Bill Clinton did in 2000 shortly
after Putin was elected president. Nor did he get a sense of Putin’s soul, as
George W Bush claimed in 2001, and trust what he saw.
He did not
aim for an ambitious “reset” of US-Russia relations, as Barack Obama fatefully
did in 2009. Most notoriously Biden’s tone was a million miles from the one-man
admiration society Donald Trump brought to Helsinki when he met Putin alone in
2018.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-fed-s-abrupt-change-in-mood-just-got-everyone-s-attention-20210617-p581tf.html
The Fed just got everyone’s attention with its abrupt change of tone
Senior
business columnist
June
17, 2021 — 11.55am
At its last
meeting in April, US Federal Reserve Board chairman Jerome Powell indicated
that the Fed was in no hurry to raise US interest rates. Now, it seems, it is
thinking about it.
Confronted by
data last week that core inflation
is running at its highest level in nearly 30 years and an economy
that is rebounding harder and faster than they had previously anticipated, the
expectations of members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) have shifted
markedly.
Where they were
ultra-dovish at their last meeting they are now mildly hawkish, a shift in
stance that caused the US sharemarket to slide, the US dollar to strengthen and
bond yields to spike.
At the core of
the markets’ abrupt change in mood, from complacency and a conviction that the
Fed would keep US rates ultra-low indefinitely to unease, was the release of
the FOMC members’ projections after this week’s meeting.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/the-us-should-spurn-the-false-promise-of-protectionism-20210616-p581fo
The US should spurn the false promise of protectionism
America’s
economy suffers from inequality and poor labour performance, but this is not
due to global trade.
Martin Wolf Columnist
Jun 16, 2021 –
10.50am
Protectionism
is back, above all in the US. The driving forces behind it are xenophobia and
nostalgia. Arguments can be made for a degree of self-sufficiency, for reasons
of national security. But those arguments need meticulous assessment.
This is not
what has been happening, certainly not under Donald Trump. But though the
tone is different under Joe Biden, the reality is not, alas. On the
contrary, protection has become one of the few issues on which there is
bipartisan consensus.
The communiqué
issued by the leaders of the G7 stated: “We have agreed ... to ... secure
our future prosperity by championing freer, fairer trade within a reformed
trading system.” This papers over cracks between the US, increasingly doubtful
about trade, and, say, Germany, dependent on trade for its prosperity, as is
true of all the smaller high-income countries.
It is not
surprising that a large country with a sophisticated economy and diverse
resources, such as the US, tends to trade less intensively than smaller ones and
so cares less about it. It gains many of the benefits of trade through internal
specialisation.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/fed-tiptoes-back-from-massive-monetary-stimulus-20210617-p581r0
Fed tiptoes back from massive monetary stimulus
Markets
are fretting that we’re close to reaching the high watermark for monetary
stimulus, with the US central bank suggesting that interest rates could start
climbing in 2023.
Karen Maley Columnist
Jun 17, 2021
– 4.27pm
US Federal Reserve boss
Jerome Powell faces a difficult balancing act.
On the one
hand, he’s clearly encouraged by the US economy’s vigorous recovery from the
pandemic.
But he also
doesn’t want investors to become overly anxious that the Fed’s extraordinary
monetary stimulus – which has helped propel the US stock market to record
levels – will be taken away any time soon.
That’s why
Powell was keen to emphasise that the Fed’s future rate rises are far from
being set in concrete.
At his press
conference after the US central bank’s two-day policy meeting, Powell
emphasised that this was an “extraordinarily unusual time”, and emphasised that
forecasts for the timing of future interest rate hikes should be taken with a
“big grain of salt”.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/xi-jinping-s-effort-to-break-australia-s-will-has-only-solidified-it-20210617-p58205.html
Xi Jinping’s effort to break Australia’s will has only solidified it
By Peter Hartcher
June 18, 2021
— 5.00am
China’s
President Xi Jinping asked Australians whether they were prepared to stand up
for their sovereignty if he applied some economic pain. We now know their
answer.
“Yes”.
While China
is applying punitive trade bans to over $20 billion worth of Australian
exports, holding
two Australian writers in prison on political charges, and refusing any
high-level contact, Australian public sentiment is firm.
Sixty-two per
cent of respondents to today’s Resolve
Political Monitor, conducted for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age by
Resolve Strategic, say Australia should be guided by the principle of “sticking
to our values and speaking up” in its confrontation with Xi’s China.
Fewer than a
quarter - 23 per cent - say Australia should “think twice before antagonising
China”.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/helen-clark-slams-who-for-opposing-china-travel-bans-jury-out-on-lab-leak-20210616-p581cg.html
Helen Clark slams WHO for opposing China travel bans, jury out on lab leak
By Latika Bourke
June 17, 2021
— 5.28pm
London:
Australia and New Zealand were right to ban flights from China at the first
sign of the pandemic last year, despite objections from the World Health
Organisation and Beijing.
That is the
view of former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark who
co-chaired the international expert panel that spent a year investigating
the coronavirus outbreak.
She said that
the WHO was wrong to oppose the “absolutely essential” travel bans first
introduced on flights from China, and then extended to Europe and the rest of
the world as the pandemic spread from Wuhan where the virus was first detected.
“We did that
even though it was against the advice of the WHO and the international health
regulations which discourage constraints on travel,” she said.
The
Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response co-chair made the
forceful comments to the Australian-based Rekindling Hope podcast hosted by
opposition frontbencher and former treasurer Chris Bowen and former Labor
candidate Sam Crosby.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/for-republicans-crisis-is-the-message-as-the-party-outrage-machine-fires-up-20210618-p5822e.html
For Republicans, ‘crisis’ is the message as the party outrage machine
fires up
By Jonathan
Weisman
June 18, 2021
— 6.01am
Washington:
House Republican leaders would like everyone to know that the United States is
in crisis.
There is an
economic crisis, they say, with rising prices and overly generous unemployment
benefits; a national security crisis; a border security crisis, with its
attendant homeland security crisis, humanitarian crisis and public health
crisis; and a separate energy crisis.
Pressed on
Tuesday on whether the nation is really so beleaguered, the No. 2 Republican in
the House, Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, thought of still more
crises: anti-Semitism in the Democratic ranks, “yet another crisis,” he
asserted, and a labour shortage crisis.
“Unfortunately,
they’re all real,” he said capping a 25-minute news conference in which the
word “crisis” was used once a minute, “and they’re all being caused by
President Biden’s actions.”
As Americans
groggily emerge from their pandemic-driven isolation, they could be forgiven for
not seeing the situation as quite so dire. They might also be a little confused
about which of the many outrages truly needs their focus: the border, perhaps,
but what about Dr. Anthony Fauci and the Wuhan lab leak theory,
the teaching of critical race theory in the nation’s schools, the fact that
some schools are not fully reopened, Representative Ilhan Omar, or all those
transgender athletes competing in high school sports?
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/string-of-disasters-china-s-shipping-delays-set-to-widen-trade-chaos-20210618-p5822a.html
‘String of disasters’: China’s shipping delays set to widen trade chaos
June 18, 2021
— 10.20am
The global
shipping industry, already exhausted by pandemic shocks that are adding to
inflation pressures and delivery delays, faces the biggest test of its stamina
yet.
When one of
China’s busiest ports announced it wouldn’t accept new export containers in
late-May because of a Covid-19 outbreak, it was supposed to be up and running
again in a few days. But as the partial shutdown drags on, it’s further
snarling trade routes and lifting record freight prices even higher.
Yantian Port
now says it will be back to normal by the end of June, but just as it took
several weeks for ship schedules and supply chains to recover from the vessel blocking
the Suez Canal in March, it may take months for the cargo backlog in
southern China to clear while the fallout ripples to ports worldwide.
“The trend is
worrying, and unceasing congestion is becoming a global problem,” A.P.
Moller-Maersk, the world’s No. 1 container carrier, said in a statement.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/hardline-judge-under-us-sanctions-becomes-iran-s-next-president-20210619-p582el.html
Hardline judge under US sanctions elected Iran’s next President
By Parisa
Hafezi
Updated June
19, 2021 — 4.57pmfirst published at 4.06pm
Dubai: Hardline
judge Ebrahim Raisi has been elected President of Iran in a lacklustre campaign
where he was widely regarded as front-runner, despite being personally
sanctioned by the US.
Raisi, a
protege of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will have a key role
in discussions with the United States about the
prospect of a renewed nuclear pact.
At 9am Saturday
local time (3.30pm AEST), the two other candidates, former Revolutionary Guard
commander Mohsen Rezaie and moderate Abdolnaser Hemmati both congratulated
Raisi, although the official result has not yet been declared.
Rezaei’s
concession in a post on Twitter came as Iran’s outgoing President Hassan
Rouhani also acknowledged the winner in the country’s vote Friday was “clear,”
though he didn’t immediately name judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi.
-----
I look forward to comments on all
this!
-----
David.