May 26, 2022
Edition
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Hard to go
past the fact of a change of Government in OZ. I can't say I will miss either ScoMo or Greg Hunt! I wonder who will be the new Federal Health Minister?
Otherwise we
see Biden touring in Asia to shore up the position of the US in Asia and a push
back on China.
Little of
note in Europe other than the horrible grinding war in Ukraine and the
worsening economic position in the EU and US.
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Major Issues.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-launches-his-own-rescue-plan-20220515-p5algt
Morrison launches his own rescue plan
Scott
Morrison is running out of time to turn an electoral tide that seems to be
carrying the Coalition out to sea. His new housing policy is an attempt to
persuade more voters he has an answer to the housing crisis - and one Labor
can’t copy
Jennifer Hewett
Columnist
May 15, 2022
– 4.44pm
None of the
enthusiastic applause and constant repetition of the word “strong” could
obscure the sense of Coalition desperation lurking outside its official
campaign launch in the Brisbane convention centre.
Standing in
front of signs declaring “STRONG ECONOMY STRONGER FUTURE”, Scott Morrison is
frantically trying to salvage a much weaker future of his government. Even his
colleagues’ belief in that future has been seeping away as polls resolutely
refuse to budge and a mood for change tolls ominously in marginal
electorates.
It turns out
Morrison’s confidence in his ability to harvest community doubts about Anthony
Albanese’s character and competence in time for the election seems overwhelmed
by greater community dislike and distrust of himself as prime minister.
Checkmate.
Yet,
Morrison’s unwavering belief in miracles is strong enough to propel him through
this last few days of the campaign with another big promise to persuade more
voters a Coalition government really is there to help them.
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https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/16/productivity-lazy-government-alan-kohler/
6:00am, May
16, 2022 Updated: 9:25pm, May 15
Alan Kohler: The time for lazy, comfortable government is over
Alan Kohler
If Treasurer
Josh Frydenberg loses his seat on Saturday his best legacy could end up being
his commissioning of a review of Australian productivity.
He sent the
terms of reference to the Productivity Commission on February 7, and the final
report is due next February, which should be just about when the next
government is looking for something to do.
The PC’s
report will provide the Prime Minister and federal cabinet with a set of boxes;
all they will have to do is tick them.
Not that
there is any mystery about what’s required: Reduce child care costs, improve
education outcomes, fix health care and aged care, reform the tax system,
improve transport infrastructure, build a lot more social housing and take
steps to improve housing affordability, create a national integrity commission
to stop corruption and misuse of public money and, last but not least, put a
price on carbon to sharpen the incentives for decarbonisation.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/why-portfolios-should-include-private-equity-20220513-p5al33
Why portfolios should include private equity
Retail
investors need to be wary of traditional investments that are now riskier given
the concentration in large-cap listed markets. As businesses evolve, so should
portfolios.
Giselle Roux Contributor
May 16, 2022
– 5.00am
The role of private
equity in an investment portfolio has become normalised, initially with US
endowments achieving stellar returns from large allocations to illiquid assets
encouraging family wealth into the segment alongside institutional money. The
commitment to private markets is often cited by large investors as a key to
their success.
Private
access for many is frustrating. Deals are done behind doors for the favoured
few, while larger fund managers offer only limited, expensive broad access.
The size of
the asset class is huge, with the Australian private equity sector stated at
$90 billion, up 42 per cent from 2019. This may not include all the global
money or debt that supports these deals.
The influence
is significant. Every week a new offer arises from a private equity firm to
take over a listed company – front of mind is the proposition for Ramsay
Healthcare. The thesis behind this bid can be summarised as taking
advantage of earnings disrupted by COVID-19, property assets to be realised and
pricing advantage thanks to a narrow set of competitors.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/aukus-limits-labor-s-room-to-move-on-china-reset-20220512-p5akus
AUKUS limits Labor’s room to move on China reset
James Curran Historian
May 16, 2022
– 5.00am
Next Sunday morning,
either Anthony Albanese or Scott Morrison will confront a world where military
hostilities continue in Europe and where the possibility of war in Asia and the
Pacific continues to be aired by senior political leaders in Canberra and
Washington, Tokyo, Taipei and Beijing.
Labor
believes a softer tone, presumably a modification of the ideological fervour
that Morrison has adopted since mid-2020, will restore decorum to relations
with China.
The new
Chinese Ambassador,
Xiao Qian, clearly wants to get beyond the rancour. But both sides of
Australian politics, for the moment, are reluctant to take his olive branch.
The question
for the next term of government is how – indeed, whether – the two countries
can recover credibility with each other.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/bonds-regain-defensive-appeal-despite-vicious-tumble-20220516-p5alrx
Bonds regain defensive appeal despite vicious tumble
Alice
Gledhill and Liz Capo McCormick
May 16, 2022
– 3.17pm
A few brave
souls in the investing world are starting to move back into bonds to ride out
an oncoming economic storm.
While debt
bulls on Wall Street have been crushed all year, market sentiment has shifted
markedly over the past week from inflation fears to growth.
Market-derived
expectations of US price growth dropped from multi-year highs while nominal
yields in the US, Germany, Italy and UK retreated. At the same time a report
showing higher than expected price increases for American consumers failed to
ignite a sustained rout - a sign of bear-market exhaustion after a historically
bad start to the year.
With
inflation pressures still rampant everywhere, no one is betting with conviction
that yields in any of the world’s major markets have peaked. But the argument
goes that the asset class still offers a powerful hedge as the
Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign threatens to spur a
downturn in the business cycle that could ripple across global assets.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/road-to-riches-how-to-work-out-your-net-worth-and-track-it/news-story/70d5a27ce0e70b84f9993d55c34763e0
Road to riches: how to work out your net worth and track it
Anthony Keane
11:16AM May
16, 2022
Most
homeowners who experienced last year’s property price boom are much wealthier
than before the pandemic, but their surge in net worth may not be enough to
retire as rich as they want.
Net worth –
calculated by totalling all assets minus all debts – is a valuable tool to help
people map their financial growth and make changes where needed.
Money
specialists say people’s net worth needs differ depending on the desired
lifestyle, but there are some helpful guides.
For those
relying solely on superannuation, super fund statements contain projections,
while calculations by the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia show
the average super balance required today to deliver the $545,000 necessary for
a single’s comfortable retirement using personal wealth and the pension.
It says a
25-year-old average worker needs only $17,000 in super today to reach $545,000
by age 67, while a 35-year-old requires $93,000, a 45-year-old should have
$195,000, a 55-year-old should be at $330,000 and a 65-year-old – two years
from pension age – would require $503,000.
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https://www.afr.com/property/residential/super-plan-could-lift-sydney-prices-by-45-000-20220516-p5alok
Super plan could lift Sydney house prices by $45,000
Michael Bleby Senior
reporter
May 16, 2022
– 7.27pm
Letting
prospective buyers tap $40,000 of superannuation would push up housing prices,
with the median price in Sydney rising by $45,000 and by almost $100,000 in
Brisbane, independent modelling shows.
The effect on
housing prices of a $40,000 super boost – close to the $50,000 limit under
the Coalition’s super for housing proposal unveiled over the weekend –
would be lowest in Melbourne, where it would push the median price up $31,126,
a report published by the McKell Institute last year shows.
In Sydney,
the median price would rise $45,342 and in Hobart it would gain $57,413, but
the effect will be much greater in the other cities, with Brisbane’s median
rising by $99,346, Hobart by $92,796 and Adelaide by $84,543, the think tank’s
report says.
While the
effect in cities varied, the leverage a first home buyer would gain from the
cash taken out of their super – based on a 20 per cent deposit – would push
their spending power up by five times in broad terms, leaving buyers with less
super and more debt, McKell Institute executive director Michael Buckland said.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/could-this-be-the-election-in-which-news-corp-s-impotence-is-exposed-20220515-p5alev.html
Could this be the election in which News Corp’s impotence is exposed?
Margaret Simons
Journalist,
author and academic
May 16, 2022
— 5.00am
I am not sure
News Corporation bothers to deny its bias these days. But could this be the
election in which the impotence of its skewed reporting is exposed?
Some of the
content in News Corporation tabloids has read like political advertising for
the Coalition.
There was the
multi-page spread in the Herald Sun which read like a paid advertisement for
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in his contest against independent candidate Monique
Ryan. The headline was not subtle: “Why you need to vote for me”.
And on Friday
many of the state-based News Corp tabloids ran a story asking the “teal”
independents about their policies on “China’s advance in the Pacific, changes
to income tax, defence spending and transgender athletes”.
Fair enough.
They are, after all, asking for votes. But the spin in the way it was written
was enough to take this old-school journalist’s breath away.
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https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/chinese-growth-adds-to-rba-s-policy-challenge-20220516-p5alt4
China’s economic woes add to RBA’s policy challenge
Cecile Lefort Markets
reporter
May 17, 2022
– 4.48pm
The
deterioration in the Chinese economy will pose a growing concern for the
Reserve Bank of Australia, as it assesses the magnitude and pace of monetary
tightening to wrest control of inflation.
Australian
bond futures, which have scaled back the chance of a super-sized cash rate
increase of 40 basis points amid mounting global growth concerns, are now
implying a 98 per cent chance of the standard 25 basis points move next month.
If correct,
it would take the cash rate to 0.6 per cent next month, from 0.35 per cent.
Futures
expect the cash rate to reach 2.73 per cent by the end of the year, which
equates to nine quarter-point increases at the remaining seven Reserve Bank
policy meetings.
Chinese
stocks were up before the close of trade. The CSI 300 advanced 1 per cent to
3997.7 points and in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was up almost 3 per cent to
20,534.9. The rally signified confidence that Beijing would be able to nurse
growth with stimulatory policy and Shanghai exiting lockdown.
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https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-coalition-s-super-home-buyer-scheme-20220516-p5alsz
What you need to know about the Coalition’s super home buyer scheme
Economists
warn about “unforeseen economic consequences” of encouraging young home buyers
to dip into their super.
Duncan Hughes Reporter
May 18, 2022
– 5.00am
The
Coalition’s super home buyer scheme could be a “windfall” for existing property
owners’ retirement plans, but economists say it could make it even harder for
some first home buyers to get into the market and limit the mobility of
upgraders.
Plans to
expand the eligibility of downsizers to make a one-off super contribution of up
to $300,000 after the sale of a home – down from 60 to 55 – plus rising
property prices are tipped to increase returns for homeowners preparing for
retirement.
But the
proposed changes are only a marginal measure for young first home buyers who
generally do not have enough superannuation to transfer a game-changing amount
to their home purchase, says Alex Dunnin, an executive director of Rainmaker
Group, a financial services management consultancy. Even if they could, he
says, they would struggle to keep pace with recent price rises.
There could
also be unforeseen long-term economic consequences for job mobility if future
home owners decide it is easier to remain in their existing residence rather
than have to “refund” their pension if they decide to move, adds Brendan
Coates, economist at the Grattan Institute, a public policy think tank.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/date-with-density-major-parties-ignore-real-cause-of-housing-pain-20220517-p5am6t.html
Date with density: Major parties ignore real cause of housing pain
By Joey Moloney and Brendan Coates
May 18, 2022
— 8.30am
As both major
parties make their final pre-election pitches on housing – shared equity from
Labor, super for housing from the Coalition – neither side has shown much
willingness to tackle the fundamental factors that are making housing less
affordable.
The simple
fact is we have not built enough housing to meet the needs of Australia’s
growing population. Among developed countries, Australia has had the
second-biggest decline in housing stock relative to the adult population over
the past 20 years.
Our cities
offer too little medium-density housing in their inner and middle rings.
Australian capital cities are more sparsely populated than cities of similar
size in other developed economies.
This is not
what most Australians want. It is a myth that all new first-home buyers want a
quarter-acre block. Many would prefer a townhouse, semi-detached dwelling, or
apartment in an inner or middle suburb, rather than a house on the city fringe.
The stock of
smaller dwellings – townhouses, apartments, etc – made up 44 per cent of Sydney’s
houses in 2016, and 33 per cent of Melbourne’s. Yet, Australians
say they actually want those numbers to be 59 per cent in Sydney and 52 per
cent in Melbourne.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/election-2022-character-question-hangs-over-liberal-party/news-story/4abf28c6d9696317e35e0f31972bac6b
Election 2022: Character question hangs over Liberal Party
Ian Smith
12:00AM May
18, 2022
It was harder
to put pen to ballot paper this election than any in which I have voted
previously. As I filled out my postal ballot last week, my hand hovered over
several boxes. Previously, in Britain and here, it had ticked Conservative or
Liberal without a moment’s thought. If I am like this, heaven knows how others
yearning for the centre-right are feeling.
I set up the
Tory Club at a left-leaning college in London in the mid-1980s and worked for
Liberal leaders in South Australia and Victoria during the ’90s. Supporting a
political party is often like following a football team. Irrespective of how
they play, you must be a lifelong fan. But what if the values of the club go
missing? Even some Collingwood fans will question renewing their season tickets
following Heritier Lumumba’s revelations of racism.
The problem
for the Liberal Party now is there appear to be a lot of people like me who are
no longer willing to be taken for granted. Keener to go blue than any other
colour, which now includes teal, I want to know the party or team I support has
a set of core values in which I can believe.
The Liberal
Party maintains a strong understanding of the economy. While it has borrowed
much this term, it did so because of a once-in-a-century pandemic. JobKeeper
helped save countless businesses, and credit should go where it is due. The
implementation of more free trade deals sets up opportunities for growth in the
years ahead.
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https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/19/housing-affordability-no-plan-kohler/
6:00am, May
19, 2022 Updated: 7:25pm, May 18
Alan Kohler: The major parties have no plan for housing affordability
Alan Kohler
The
Coalition’s idea of letting first-home buyers use their super to buy a house is
another stinker in a long line of housing policy stinkers.
Another is
Labor’s “Help To Buy” shared equity scheme, and the Coalition’s Home Guarantee
Scheme.
The only
housing policies with any merit this year are Labor’s idea of a fund to build
social housing and the Coalition’s plan to give $2 billion to the National
Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) to do the same. But neither
of them is anywhere near enough – no more than a start.
But let’s
face it, politicians do not want house prices to fall. The shadow housing
minister, Jason Clare, acknowledged that to me this week, saying nobody is
proposing to do that.
“I don’t
think anyone would want to see that. You know, anybody who owns a home wants to
see the value appreciate. If house prices were to drop, the economic impact for
Australia would be phenomenal. What we do need to do, I think, is come up with
policies to help people who want to buy a home.”
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/dislike-of-morrison-remains-the-dominant-factor-in-this-campaign-20220517-p5am7a.html
Dislike of Morrison remains the dominant factor in this campaign
Niki Savva
Award-winning
political commentator and author
May 19, 2022
— 5.00am
It had all
the hallmarks of a dead man walking when Scott Morrison promised, without
actually admitting to his transgressions and in fact seeking to redefine them,
that if only he could be spared execution he would be a better man and a better
leader.
The narrow
track to victory that he had been predicting so confidently for months suddenly
loomed as his path to political oblivion.
After more
than three years in the job, after countless accusations of bullying,
hypocrisy, fibbing, fudging, fumbling, blame shifting, incompetence and failing
to rise to the occasion, after millions of people had already voted, with a
week to go, Morrison appeared to have a come-to-Jesus moment, which he felt
compelled to share with all Australians.
Finally
acknowledging that perhaps he was the problem, he vowed to change. He couldn’t
say exactly when or how he would change, except that he would work at being
more empathetic and more inclusive, as if his only defect was the perception he
lacked compassion, rather than candour and competence. It turned out to be what
a friend describes as a ScoMopology. Valid only on the day of issue.
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/election-2022-unemployment-rate-falls-to-lowest-level-in-50-years/news-story/e6b0d8791d82f7be9e16ece19b2ed99c
Election 2022: Unemployment rate falls to lowest level in 50 years
Ashleigh
Gleeson
19 May 2022 -
NCA NewsWire
The national
unemployment rate has fallen to a 48-year low, in what the Coalition will no
doubt say is evidence of good economic management just two days out from the
election.
The
Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday reported the unemployment rate
edged from 4 per cent to 3.9 per cent in April.
That is the
lowest level since 1974 and the sixth consecutive monthly gain in employment.
“In April, we
saw employment rise by 4000 people and unemployment fall by 11,000 people,” ABS
head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said on Thursday.
“As a result,
the unemployment rate decreased slightly in April, though remained level, in
rounded terms, with the revised March rate of 3.9 per cent.”
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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/we-need-to-sharpen-national-security-edge-heres-how/news-story/d4afdf72880a9237d5b83c3c35caa9ba
We need to sharpen national security edge – here’s how
Nick Warner
12:00AM May
19, 2022
We live in
turbulent and fast-changing times, and there’s work to be done on our national
security agencies and architecture by whichever party wins the election on
Saturday.
With a boost
in defence spending, the establishment of an office of the national security
adviser, a reviewed and revitalised Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade,
and a regular health check for the intelligence community, Australia’s national
security community will be better prepared to meet the security challenges that
lie ahead.
Australia is
well served by the men and women who dedicate their careers to working quietly
and effectively for the security of Australia, whether they be in DFAT, Home
Affairs, Defence, the Australian Defence Force, Australian Federal Police or
one of our 10 intelligence agencies and entities.
From this
perspective we’re in good shape to confront the challenges of the next decade.
But those challenges will be more serious than the ones we faced in recent
decades, and some of our national security structures and processes need to be
sharper.
With the
AUKUS security pact and the revitalisation of the Quadrilateral Security
Dialogue, the Morrison government has begun to lay down some strong new
international security foundations that will serve us well in years to come.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-closing-the-gap-on-labor-in-final-days-20220519-p5amlj
Coalition closing the gap on Labor in final days
Phillip Coorey Political
editor
May 19, 2022
– 6.00pm
The Morrison
government has clawed back significant ground in the last week of the election
campaign, and is hoping a 48-year-low unemployment rate of 3.9 per cent will
help it erode what is still an election-winning lead by Labor.
The latest The Australian Financial
Review/Ipsos poll shows Labor’s primary vote lead over the Coalition has
shrunk by 5 percentage points since the previous
poll 12 days ago.
Excluding
undecided voters, Labor’s primary vote has fallen two points to 36 per cent,
while the Coalition’s first preferences have jumped three points from 32 per
cent to 35 per cent.
The Greens
are on 13 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent, the United Australia Party 3 per
cent and others and independents are on 8 per cent.
Based on 2019
preference flows, which includes allocating preferences of the 5 per cent of
undecided voters as to how they voted last time, Labor leads the Coalition by
53 per cent to 47 per cent, enough to deliver a comfortable victory if
replicated on election day.
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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/vanishing-hong-kong-i-knew-i-was-crossing-a-line-but-i-didn-t-care-20220517-p5am0a
Vanishing Hong Kong: ‘I knew I was crossing a line but I didn’t care’
Louisa
Lim’s book ‘Indelible City’ is a deeply personal account of Hong Kong’s
complicated past and its current transformation from a thriving financial hub
to a security state.
Michael Smith North Asia
correspondent
May 20, 2022
– 5.00am
Louisa Lim’s
Indelible City opens with an emotional 2019 encounter on the rooftop of a Hong
Kong skyscraper.
In these
opening paragraphs, the author is torn between journalistic neutrality and her
love of the city as she is invited by a “secret co-operative of guerrilla sign
painters” to grab a paint brush and help produce the giant pro-democracy
banners that became a symbol
of Hong Kong’s protest movement.
“Driven by
gut instinct, I stood up and walked over to take a paint pot for myself. I knew
I was crossing a line, from neutral reporter to voluntary participant in an act
of protest, and that in doing so, I was violating the cardinal tenet on which I
had based a quarter of a century of journalist endeavour. But I also realised
at that instant that I didn’t care,” she writes.
Lim’s account
sets the scene for what is a deeply personal account of the city where she grew
up – its past, present and future.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/where-the-election-night-surprises-might-spring-from-20220518-p5ami5
Where the election night surprises might spring from
For the
record, I’ve still got Labor forming government, winning 10 seats from the
Coalition and the teal group gaining six from the Coalition including Kooyong.
John Black Election Analyst
May 19, 2022
– 5.24pm
Saturday
night’s count is going to be a bit more complicated than usual, given the
fading relevance of the major parties, a trend pushed along by two increasingly
unpopular leaders losing primary votes from their traditional supporters
wherever they travel, by negatively campaigning against each other and yet
still wondering why the contest is getting tighter.
It’s become a
bit like opposition leader Billy Snedden’s negative campaign in 1974, carping
relentlessly against the then popular prime minister Gough Whitlam and
wondering aloud to reporters: Everywhere I go, people tell me something is
wrong. Indeed.
For the
record, I’ve still
got Labor forming government, winning 10 seats from the Coalition:
Bennelong, Lindsay and Reid in NSW; Leichhardt and Dickson in Queensland;
Boothby in South Australia; Braddon in Tasmania; Chisholm in Victoria; and Swan
and Pearce in Western Australia.
I have the
teal group gaining six seats, all from the Coalition: Wentworth and North
Sydney in NSW; Kooyong, Goldstein and Flinders in Victoria; and Curtin in
Western Australia.
And the
Greens, having doorknocked most of the Goat Cheese Circle seats of Ryan,
Brisbane and Griffith, look like picking up the first two from the Coalition,
but I can see a situation where the Liberals, Greens and Labor could win one
each.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/an-election-about-government-doing-less-for-you-20220519-p5amlf
An election about government doing less for you
The
strategy of me-tooing the Coalition means Labor has shied away from suggesting
it can change the country.
Laura Tingle Columnist
May 20, 2022
– 4.32pm
Before what
feels like the interminable 2022 election campaign
began, Labor was testing advertising with voters in focus groups. The party’s
leader, Anthony Albanese, wanted to have his beloved little white fluffy dog
Toto in some of the ads, prompting conniptions from Labor’s advertising
consultants.
“No!” they
were heard to cry. “Just no!”
Little white
fluffy dogs might be very nice. But do they convey the sorts of images about
leadership that we want in our leaders?
Years ago,
the former general secretary of the NSW Labor Party, John Della Bosca, perhaps
unwisely observed in an interview that former federal leader Kim Beazley needed
to convey a bit more political mongrel. Cartoonist Patrick Cook promptly drew a
picture of Beazley walking into a pet shop with an ALP apparatchik.
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https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-deadweight-of-complacency-keeps-the-lucky-country-down-20220520-p5an7b.html
The deadweight of complacency keeps the Lucky Country down
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
May 21, 2022
— 5.00am
Australia is
a nation in managed decline. It is running down its stock of assets, its
advantages natural, historical and human-made.
The reef is
bleaching, the koala is endangered. Australia’s ranking in school standards is
sliding, the hospital system is groaning. Productivity is stagnant, federal
debt towering. Living standards are going nowhere.
Of all the
nations on earth, Australia consistently was ranked No. 1 in the world for
overall quality of life as recently as the mid-1990s, according to the World
Bank’s Human Development Index. It’s on the decline. Now it’s No. 8, overtaken
by Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Iceland, Germany and Sweden.
And a hostile
great power effortlessly is taking rights to occupy strategic ground that
Australians died to defend in the Pacific War.
Australia
retains extraordinary advantages and untapped potential. This burst into life
in the early phase of the pandemic. It showcased the country’s deep medical and
scientific expertise to meet the virus, deep fiscal resources to overcome its
economic effects and deep social trust to work together for the common good.
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https://www.theage.com.au/national/win-over-white-collar-women-in-the-cities-win-the-election-20220518-p5amc3.html
Win over white-collar women in the cities, win the election
By George Megalogenis
May 21, 2022
— 5.00am
Get ready for
an identity shock. The Australian political system is about to break into three
unpredictable parts, between Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and none of
the above.
It is the
only thing the major parties privately agree on at the end of a petulant
campaign. Whoever forms the next federal government, whether in their own right
or with the support of an enlarged crossbench, is expected to take office with
a historically low primary vote. This will mean power without broad appeal for
the winning side, while the loser faces an existential crisis, even if they
fall only a few seats short of victory themselves.
The fear for
both Labor and the Coalition is that their respective primary votes will remain
stuck in the low to mid-30s, as the opinion polls have been warning since Scott
Morrison called the election six weeks ago for May 21.
If this is
indeed the case, it would also mean that the third-party vote – already at a
postwar high of 24.7 per cent in 2019 – crosses 30 per cent for the first time.
You have to go back to the earliest years of federation, when the Australian
Labor Party was in its infancy and the right was split between the
Protectionists and Free Traders, for an equivalent period of churn in our
democracy.
A fractured
electorate will confirm politically what we have known as citizens for some
years, and have felt even more keenly since COVID-19 disrupted our lives.
Australia is divided by gender, class and place – between women and men, young
and old, the cities and the regions, and, within the capitals themselves,
between the leafy inner suburbs and the urban fringes.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-to-form-government-as-independents-rise-20220521-p5anc9
Labor to form government as independents rise
Phillip Coorey Political
editor
Updated May
22, 2022 – 12.20am, first published at May 21, 2022 – 11.01pm
Federal
Election 2022
Full election
results
ALP 71
LNP 52
IND 10
GRN 3
OTH 2
76 seats
needed for a majority
13 Still to
call
66.33% counted
Updated May
22, 2022 – 8.20am
Labor will
form government – possibly in its own right – despite garnering less than
one-third of the vote, after a night of chaos in which the ranks of the
Coalition were decimated by teal independents, the opposition and the Greens.
Treasurer
Josh Frydenberg is among the six Liberals who were either defeated or facing
defeat in their once blue-ribbon seats by the Climate 200-backed teal
independents.
With more
than half the vote counted, Labor had a net 72 seats confirmed by the
Australian Electoral Commission. A minimum of 76 is needed to form government.
Only Labor is in a position to negotiate minority government should it not win
the 76 seats.
The
Coalition, which started with 76 seats, had 55 confirmed. Labor had a two-party
preferred lead of 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent, which was a swing towards it
from the last election in 2019 of 3.1 per cent.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-quiet-australians-spoke-and-they-said-enough-20220521-p5anda.html
The quiet Australians spoke and they said ‘enough’
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
May 21, 2022
— 11.41pm
Anthony
Albanese bet everything on a Scott Morrison failure and his bet has paid off
handsomely.
Morrison has
delivered for Labor. He has not only lost power. By surrendering all
traditional Liberal values, he has cost the Liberal Party its bedrock support
base. He was a bulldozer, all right. He bulldozed his party into electoral
oblivion.
The Liberal
leader became so poisonous to traditional Liberal voters that he dared not show
his face in traditional Liberal heartland. He single-handedly turned
blue-ribbon Liberal seats teal.
The Liberals
have long been a “broad church” of conservatives and liberals, but Morrison was
a self-described pragmatist. He didn’t believe in government living within its
means, he didn’t believe in free markets and he was not interested in
integrity. So he lost the conservatives.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leaders-worst-on-show-in-raw-personal-contest-20220519-p5amqi.html
The Coalition gambled on making Morrison the whole campaign - and lost
David Crowe
Chief
political correspondent
Updated May
21, 2022 — 9.44pmfirst published at 7.55pm
One of the
most revealing features of this election campaign was the way voters were shown
the worst of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese in the relentless effort by
each leader to tear the other down.
The personal
contest between the prime minister and the Labor leader put questions of
character at the heart of the 2022 election in what the government wanted to be
a contrast between weakness and strength.
From the
casting of ballots to the calling of results - here’s how coverage of the
Australian federal election unfolded.
Morrison,
whose admission
that he was “a bit of a bulldozer” was one of the memorable moments of the
campaign, worked every day to paint Albanese as too weak, too inexperienced,
too inept for the job.
The
government put all its bets on Morrison as the strong leader who could manage
the budget and handle the challenge of China and the global insecurity
unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a plea to voters to keep
Morrison even if
they did not like him.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-liberals-post-election-endgame-20220521-p5and9
The Liberals’ post-election endgame
For the
party, the devastating election result has generated a profound crisis.
Andrew Clark Senior writer
May 22, 2022
– 12.04am
The election
result has thrown Robert Menzies’ Liberal Party into an existential crisis.
Just hours
into vote-counting, it was clear that the Coalition had not just lost
government, but the Liberal Party had been decimated in its own heartland.
Huge swings,
ranging from 5 per cent to 13 per cent were recorded in the Liberal Party’s
traditional crown jewel seats – Kooyong, which was Menzies’ old electorate,
plus Higgins, Goldstein, Wentworth, Mackellar, North Sydney and Curtin.
Nearly 80
years after Menzies formed the Liberal Party, which went on to hold power in
the national parliament for 51 of the next 76 years, the Scott Morrison-led
Liberal Party has been pole-axed by a tectonic shift in Australian politics. It
is one where affluent, professional voters, particularly women, are placing
issues such as climate change, integrity in government, and respect for women,
above more bread and butter concerns such as the economy.
In an
election that took on the appearance of 151 byelections, or at least six
separate federal elections broadly covering the six states, there was a
dramatic shift towards independents and Green candidates in more affluent seats
in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, while the Coalition parties
performed better in outer suburbs, regional and rural areas.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/election-2022-albaneses-got-this-now-the-liberals-need-a-good-think/news-story/6fc21be1345ee020dd9cd665340a6e07
Election 2022: Albanese’s got this – now the Liberals need a good think
Peter van
Onselen
12:00AM May
21, 2022
Predictions
in politics are always fraught with danger. Three years ago Scott Morrison took
great delight rubbing my nose in getting it wrong. But I’m happy to have
another go, and predict that Labor will form government after Saturday’s
results are tallied.
It should be
able to form majority government, but at the very least looks set to govern in
minority. The Coalition has had wars on too many fronts to pull off another
victory coming from behind.
Teal
independents are likely to win a few seats off Liberal MPs but, irrespective of
whether they exceed those expectations or underwhelm, they have sapped
much-needed resources from the Coalition’s contest with Labor.
The aftermath
will require the Liberal Party and the Coalition to have a long, hard think
about who they represent and their ideological lines in the sand.
-----
COVID-19 Information.
-----
No entries
for this week.
------
Climate Change.
-----
No entries
for this week.
-----
Royal Commissions And The Like.
-----
No entries
for this week.
-----
National Budget Issues.
-----
No entries
for this week.
-----
Health Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/there-s-a-better-way-than-spending-more-on-world-class-healthcare-20220515-p5alff
There’s a better way than spending more on world-class healthcare
The
age-old fight over cost shifting has a solution that isn’t rocket science:
rework the funding agreement to pay for lower-cost services.
Tom Parry Contributor
May 15, 2022
– 1.44pm
My last day
of COVID-19 isolation. Thanks to the new antiviral medication taken at home,
I’ve not suffered more than moderate cold symptoms.
Who knows if
I hadn’t started the drug within the five-day window, whether I would be one of
those many still being admitted to hospital for treatment? And, if so, ended up
in intensive care with a risk of being one of those sadly still dying from
(rather than with) COVID-19?
From the
clinical trial results, the
antiviral treatment appears to prevent severe illness and hospitalisation
in almost 90 per cent of cases. I started feeling better within a few hours of
the first dose.
And good
timing: the drug was available for prescribing by my GP in a telehealth
consultation on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme ($41 a course) from May 1.
Before then it would have cost me over $1000 (which is what it cost the
Commonwealth).
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/without-radical-reform-the-prognosis-for-our-health-system-is-grim-20220514-p5ald1.html
Without radical reform, the prognosis for our health system is grim
Surgeon
May 16, 2022 — 5.00am
Yet
another nurse just told me that she’s had enough. She’s been in a senior role
for years and the health system can ill afford to lose her expertise. But
exhausted and undervalued, she’s handed in her resignation letter.
A
senior clinician – one of only a few people providing highly specialised
healthcare to a very vulnerable community – told me they might give up, too.
Their capacity already falls well short of the local need – and yet they spend
their days justifying why this service is needed at all.
I
called a specialist in training for a regular mentoring catch-up. In the past,
others have told me about bullying, harassment, overwork, fatigue, marital
issues, even assault. But this doctor told me their most distressing problem
was not being able to treat patients – those queued in the corridors of their
own emergency department, and those under the care of desperate doctors all
over their state seeking a bed, any bed, to transfer a patient to.
They’ll
keep slogging on, for now, with assurances that they won’t be held legally
responsible for poor outcomes weighing heavily on their conscience.
This
is the Australian health system today. It’s a crisis largely ignored in the
current election campaign.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/voluntary-assisted-dying-legalised-in-nsw-20220519-p5amo0.html
Voluntary assisted dying legalised in NSW
By Alexandra Smith
May 19, 2022
— 1.01pm
Terminally
ill people in NSW will now be able to choose the timing of their death after a
historic vote in state parliament legalised voluntary assisted dying.
Twenty years
after it was first debated in parliament, NSW on Thursday became the final
state in Australia to introduce assisted dying laws.
Independent
Sydney MP Alex Greenwich introduced the bill to parliament late last year, with
Coalition and Labor MPs granted a free vote.
Greenwich
told parliament that the “entire diversity” of the parliament were involved in
passing the bill, with 28 co-sponsors from across all parties - the highest
number of any bill in Australian parliamentary history.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/what-is-monkeypox-and-should-we-be-worried-20220520-p5an52.html
What is monkeypox and should we be worried?
Monkeypox
has been recorded in Australia for the first time. What is it?
By Sherryn Groch
May 20, 2022
A man has
been diagnosed with monkeypox in Victoria and another suspected case is being
investigated in New South Wales. It’s the first time the virus has been
recorded in Australia – and likely part of a spate of cases that have turned up
across Europe and North America in recent days in a surprising outbreak of a
disease that rarely appears outside Africa.
Health
officials around the world are keeping watch for more cases because, for the
first time, the disease appears to be spreading among people who didn’t travel
to Africa. But they stress that the risk to the general population is low as
the virus most commonly spreads from animals directly.
What is
monkeypox?
The monkeypox
virus originates in wild animals such as some species of rodents and primates,
and occasionally jumps to people. Most human cases have been in central and
West Africa, where the disease is endemic but, unlike COVID, it does not spread
easily between people except through close contact, including via respiratory
droplets and lesions, or touching contaminated clothes, linen or towels.
The disease
is usually mild, though there are two main strains: the more severe Congo
strain, which has a mortality rate of up to 10 per cent of cases, and the West
African strain, where the fatality rate is about 1 per cent or less. So far,
the UK reports its cases are the West African strain, and further genomic testing
is underway around the world.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/cost-of-genomic-revolution-may-be-more-ethical-than-economic/news-story/d496181d7abae13eaf416c2a3bc18283
Cost of genomic revolution may be more ethical than economic
By The
Economist
12:00AM May
21, 2022
Imagine for a
moment that your unborn child has a rare genetic disorder. Not something at
least vaguely familiar, such as sickle-cell anaemia or cystic fibrosis, but
rather a condition buried deep within the medical dictionary.
Adrenoleukodystrophy, maybe. Or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.
Would you,
when your child is born, want to know about it? If effective treatments were
available, you probably would. But if not? If the outcome were fatal, would
your interest in knowing about it depend on whether your newborn had five years
of life to look forward to, or 10? Or 30?
Today these
questions are mostly hypothetical. Precisely because they are rare, such
disorders are seldom noticed at birth. They manifest themselves only gradually,
and often with unpredictable severity. But that may soon change. Twenty years
after the first human genome was mapped, the price of whole-genome sequencing
has fallen to a point where it could, in rich countries at least, be offered
routinely to newborns. Parents will then have to decide exactly how much they
want to know.
Early
diagnosis brings with it the possibility of early treatment. Moreover,
sequencing the genomes of newborns could offer a lifetime of returns. A patient’s
genome may reveal which drugs will work best in his or her particular case for
conditions such as ADHD, depression and cancer. Combined with information about
someone’s way of life, it could highlight easily discounted health risks such
as cancers and cardiovascular disease, leading to better preventive measures. A
database of genomes, matched to living people, would be a boon for medical
research. The fruits of that research, in turn, would make those genomes more
useful to their owners as time goes on.
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/little-fires-everywhere-risk-a-global-economic-inferno-20220515-p5alhf
Little fires everywhere risk a global economic inferno
The war in
Ukraine has been a big shock to the global economy but of more concern are a
series of smaller fires.
Mohamed El-Erian
Contributor
May 15, 2022
– 2.43pm
Big shocks to
the global economy, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, understandably
capture the most attention. But a new worldwide pattern of “little fires
everywhere” might be equally consequential for longer-term economic well-being.
Over time, these small fires can coalesce into one that is just as threatening
as the initial large fire that acted as the catalyst.
In addition
to causing widespread death and destruction, and displacing millions of people,
the Ukraine war continues to stoke strong stagflationary winds throughout the
global economy. The resulting damage – whether in the form of higher food and
energy prices or new supply-chain disruptions – cannot be easily or rapidly
countered by domestic policy adjustments.
For most
countries, the war’s immediate economic consequences include higher inflation
(which erodes purchasing power), lower growth, increased inequality, and
greater financial instability. The multilateral system, meanwhile, now faces
greater obstacles to the type of cross-border policy coordination needed to
deal with pressing global problems such as climate change, pandemics, and
life-threatening migration.
It is in
advanced economies’ interest to help poorer countries reduce the mounting risk
of little economic fires everywhere.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/sweden-and-finland-back-nato-membership-in-historic-shifts-20220516-p5alkz
Nordic nations poised to make history with NATO accession
John Hudson,
Loveday Morris, Victoria Bisset and Miriam Berger
May 16, 2022
– 9.30am
Berlin |
Sweden’s ruling party dropped the country’s historic military non-alignment on
Sunday (Monday AEST) and agreed to join NATO, shortly after Finland’s leaders
officially announced they would do the same.
The moves
were major steps in ending decades of military neutrality for the two Nordic
nations, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continued to shift security
considerations dramatically in Europe.
NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said their accession would be a “turning
point for security” in Europe. “Their membership in NATO would increase our
shared security, demonstrate that NATO’s door is open, and that aggression does
not pay.”
“We’re now
facing a fundamentally changed security environment in Europe,” Swedish Prime
Minister Magdalena Andersson said. “And when we navigate in this new
environment, the fundamental question for us is: how do we best protect Sweden?
And the Kremlin has shown that they are prepared to use violence to achieve
their political objectives, and that they don’t hesitate to take enormous
risks.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-wages-counter-attack-against-russian-forces-in-east-20220515-p5alea.html
Russia has lost ‘a third of ground forces’ in Ukraine attack
By Tom
Balmforth and Jonathan Landay
Updated May
15, 2022 — 7.08pmfirst published at 3.42am
London/Kyiv:
Russia has probably lost around a third of the ground forces it deployed to
Ukraine and its offensive in the Donbas region “has lost momentum and fallen
significantly behind schedule”, British military intelligence said.
“Despite
small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial
territorial gains over the past month whilst sustaining consistently high
levels of attrition,” the British defence ministry said on Twitter.
The United
States has called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, during the first talks
between US and Russian defence chiefs since the war began.
“Russia has
now likely suffered losses of one third of the ground combat force it committed
in February.”
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/goldman-s-blankfein-warns-of-very-very-high-risk-of-recession-20220516-p5almi
Goldman’s Blankfein warns of ‘very, very high risk of recession’
Ian Fisher
May 16, 2022
– 9.08am
New York |
Goldman Sachs senior chairman Lloyd Blankfein urged companies and consumers to prepare
for a US recession, saying it’s a “very, very high risk”.
“If I were
running a big company, I would be very prepared for it,” Mr Blankfein said on
CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday (Monday AEST). “If I was a consumer, I’d be
prepared for it.”
A recession
was “not baked in the cake” and there was a “narrow path” to avoid it, he said.
The Federal Reserve had “very powerful tools” to tamp down inflation and had
been “responding well”, the former Goldman
chief executive said.
With high
fuel prices and a shortage of baby formula tangible measures of Americans’
unease, US consumer sentiment declined in early May to its lowest level since
2011. US consumer prices rose 8.3 per cent in April from a year ago, slowing
slightly from March but still among the fastest rate in decades.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/russia-learns-a-hard-lesson-about-the-folly-of-war-20220517-p5alx1
Russia learns a hard lesson about the folly of war
Russia is
likely to emerge from the war in Ukraine poorer, weaker and greatly diminished.
Vladimir Putin’s war is not just a crime. It is also a mistake.
Gideon Rachman
Columnist
May 17, 2022
– 8.03am
Vladimir
Putin was not the only one who got it wrong. The Russian leader’s assumption
that his armies would vanquish Ukraine within days was widely shared.
The same
Western intelligence agencies that correctly predicted that Russia would invade
Ukraine also believed that Putin would probably win a swift victory.
But almost
three months into the war, Moscow’s military is bogged down and has taken heavy
losses. Russia’s international isolation is getting worse, with the
confirmation that Finland and Sweden are planning to join NATO.
There is now
much talk about the incompetence of the Russian military. But perhaps no
special explanation is required for its problems. In modern times, when major
powers invade smaller countries they usually end up losing.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/russia-s-supply-lines-wide-open-as-ukrainians-reach-border-20220517-p5alz9
Russia’s supply lines wide open as Ukrainians reach border
Joe Barnes,
Dominic Nicholls and Nataliya Vasilyeva
May 17, 2022
– 10.43am
Ukrainian
forces reached the border with Russia in a move military experts said would
allow them to strike at Moscow’s supply lines.
In a social
media post, Ukraine’s ministry of defence said the 227th Battalion of the 127th
Brigade had successfully repelled Moscow’s troops
out of Kharkiv and reached the frontier.
“Kharkiv
suppressed the Russians and went out to the area of the state border,” it said.
It came as
Western intelligence reports suggested that Ukrainian counteroffensives had
pushed Russian troops 16 to 30 kilometres north, east and south out of Kharkiv,
the country’s second-largest city.
-----
https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/the-greenback-s-rapid-rise-increases-risks-for-global-economy-20220518-p5am9h
The greenback’s rapid rise increases risks for global economy
The risks are
particularly acute for those developing countries already facing the clear and
present dangers of crises over the economy, energy, food and debt.
Mohamed El-Erian
Contributor
May 18, 2022
– 7.52am
With so much
going on in the global economy and financial markets, the dollar’s strong
recent appreciation has attracted less attention than what would have been expected
given the historical experience.
On paper, the
appreciation of the currency of the world’s most resilient economic performer
should help adjustments in the global economy. It helps boost the exports of
weaker countries while alleviating inflationary pressures in the US by lowering
the cost of imports.
But in
current conditions, there are hazards in a rapid rise in the dollar for both
the wellbeing of an already wobbly global economy and for unsettled financial
markets.
Since the
start of the year, the dollar has appreciated by some 10 per cent as measured
by DXY, a widely-followed index of the currency’s global value. In what has
been a notably broad move encompassing the currencies of the vast majority of
economies, the total 12-month appreciation of 16 per cent has taken the index
to levels not seen for 20 years.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/rupert-murdoch-urged-to-end-fox-s-great-replacement-rhetoric-20220518-p5am8b
Rupert Murdoch urged to end Fox’s ‘great replacement’ rhetoric
Steven T.
Dennis and Ella Ceron
May 18, 2022
– 3.48am
Washington |
US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer accused Fox News of promoting white
nationalist “great replacement” rhetoric and urged Fox Corporation chairman
Rupert Murdoch to end it.
Mr Schumer,
in a letter to Mr Murdoch and other Fox executives, cited the racially
motivated mass shooting in a black neighbourhood of Buffalo by an accused
gunman, who referred to the idea of so-called ethnic replacement, as well as
other mass shootings targeting minorities in recent years.
“I implore
you to immediately cease all dissemination of false white nationalist,
far-right conspiracy theories on your network,” Mr Schumer, of New York, wrote.
“Proponents
of this white nationalist, far-right conspiracy theory believe that a complicit
or co-operative class of elites are advancing a plot designed to undermine the
political power and culture of white Americans.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russian-military-expert-tells-tv-news-program-the-whole-world-is-against-us-20220518-p5am9c.html
Russian military expert tells TV news program: ‘The whole world is against
us’
By Nataliya
Vasilyeva
May 18, 2022
— 8.15am
Istanbul: The
Ukrainian invasion has put Russia at risk of “full international isolation”, a
retired colonel has said in a rare broadcast of dissent on state television.
Criticism of
Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine is rare in Kremlin-controlled Russian
media, which has routinely praised Russian troops for “liberating” Ukraine from
ultra-nationalists.
However,
Mikhail Khodaryonok, a retired colonel and military commentator, has broken
ranks telling the state’s flagship news show on Monday that there was no good
outcome for Russia in the war.
“We need to
view one million well-armed Ukrainian soldiers as a reality for the coming
months. We need to take it into account that the situation for us will frankly
get worse.”
While the
other talking heads on Rossiya 1’s 60 Minute discussion show toed the Kremlin
line about the invasion being a “necessity” to ward off a potential Ukrainian
attack, Khodaryonok suggested Ukrainians are “defending their homeland” even if
some people in Russia disagreed with that idea.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-ingenious-strategy-that-could-win-the-war-for-ukraine-20220517-p5alz4.html
The ingenious strategy that could win the war for Ukraine
Mick
Ryan
Military
leader and strategist
May 17, 2022
— 11.38am
Throughout
their Ukrainian campaign, the Russian military has been continually forced to
reassess its strategic objectives. Plan A was to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv and other
key points, capture government leaders and force a political accommodation from
Ukraine. The battlefield performance of the Ukrainians, and strategic
leadership of President Zelensky, quickly revealed the folly of this plan.
Plan B for
the Russians saw their multi-axis attacks in the south, east, northeast, north
and in the skies above Ukraine placed on a slower timetable. This strategy also
failed. They then shifted to a focus on the Donbas and the creation of a “land
bridge” from Russia to Crimea. Since the invasion began in February, the
Russians have constantly downgraded their political goals for Ukraine, and the
strategy for achieving them.
This is not
unusual in warfare. While political objectives shape how war is conducted and
what battles are fought, so too do battles reshape political objectives. As
American strategist Eliot Cohen recently wrote, “retaining a sense of direction
in war is a constant struggle for political and military leaders at the top,
and so the staff officers (and the commentary journalists) are doomed to
frustration.”
The
Ukrainians have not suffered from a similar level of shifting objectives.
Perhaps, as the defender, their goals are simple – defend their sovereignty,
their people, and their land. But more recently, the notion of victory over
Russia has crept into the strategic discourse.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/finland-feels-russian-missile-heat/news-story/90397852b5773750fb0cdb7dffd2c6a6
Finland feels Russian missile heat
Jacquelin
Magnay
5:44PM May
17, 2022
Vladimir
Putin has re-positioned deadly Iskander missiles close to Finland’s border just
hours after Helsinki announced it would apply to join NATO, as Russia scored a
rare victory in taking control of Mariupol.
In a rapid
response to Finland and then Sweden abandoning long-held neutral status in
order to secure the protection of NATO membership, Moscow deployed seven Iskanders,
which can be fitted with various warheads including the devastating thermobaric
bombs, cluster munitions, or electro magnetic charges, as well as nuclear
weapons.
The
Iskanders, which have a range of up to 500km, were filmed from a passing car on
a highway reportedly on its way to Vyborg, a western Russian town close to the
Finnish border on the Gulf of Finland.
“As soon as
the President of Finland said they were joining NATO, a whole division of
Iskanders, seven of them … is moving towards Vyborg,” a person inside the car
said.
-----
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10826943/Ignorant-Putin-leading-Russia-destruction-writes-ex-Yeltsin-defence-aide-ALEXANDER-TEMERKO.html
Ignorant Putin is leading Russia to destruction, writes ex-Yeltsin defence
aide ALEXANDER TEMERKO
By Alexander
Temerko For The Daily Mail
Published:
07:57 AEST, 18 May 2022 | Updated: 07:57 AEST, 18 May 2022
A vast
superpower with a proud Communist history launches a brutal war on its far
smaller neighbour, sending thousands of troops over the border.
The objective
is the utter humiliation of that country — its demilitarisation, as well as
regime change and a complete overhaul of its political structure so that it
becomes a client state.
I am not
talking here about Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine. This brutal assault across national boundaries took place more
than 40 years ago when China invaded
Vietnam.
But the
parallels between the two wars are uncanny and, as I shall explain, they hold a
vital lesson for president Putin.
One that he is steadfastly — and very foolishly — ignoring.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/vladimir-putin-family-man-why-nothing-is-secret-any-more-20220516-p5alrm
Vladimir Putin, family man: why nothing is secret any more
As Western
nations place sanctions on family members and people close to the Russian
leader, they are lifting the veil of secrecy surrounding his private life.
Jason
Horowitz
May 19, 2022
– 8.00am
Vladimir
Putin did not like the prying.
It was 2008,
and the Russian president, then 56 and eight years into his tightening grip on
power, stood for a news conference in Sardinia’s lavish Villa Certosa. At his
side was his closest ally in western Europe, Silvio Berlusconi, the media mogul
and Italian prime minister of hedonist appetites with whom he shared a taste
for raunchy jokes, over-the-top furnishings and vast wealth.
During the
summers, Putin’s two teenage daughters had the run of the sprawling villa,
going on secret luxury shopping and boating excursions under strict orders that
their identities remain concealed and their faces hidden from cameras, says a
person with knowledge of the arrangement.
That strategy
of strictly shielding his family worked well for Putin over the years, until Russia attacked
Ukraine in February. Now, as nations impose sanctions on those closest to
him – including those approved last Friday by Britain on the woman long
considered to be his mistress, Alina Kabaeva, and his former wife, Lyudmila
Ocheretnaya – the facade is beginning to crumble, shedding new light on the Russian
leader’s private life.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/yellen-warns-of-global-stagflationary-risk-from-gas-food-prices-20220519-p5amjw
Yellen warns of global ‘stagflationary’ risk from petrol, food prices
Jeff Stein
May 19, 2022
– 2.49am
Bonn, Germany
| US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that Americans should
not expect immediate relief from high petrol prices, but maintained that
increased global supply would eventually be likely to provide long-term relief
for drivers.
Ms Yellen
also warned of the potential for slower growth to combine with inflation
worldwide. “Higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects,
namely depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the
world,” she told reporters.
“We’re doing
what we can to avoid further increases in energy prices … but we also want to
make sure Europe weans itself off dependence on reliance on Russian oil and
gas,” Ms Yellen said. “These pressures are not likely to abate in the very near
future.”
Ms Yellen
stressed that she did
not expect the US economy to go into recession. She said it was
well-positioned for economic risks and pointed to fast growth coming out of the
COVID-19 recession. But she said
Europe was probably more “vulnerable,” citing its greater dependence on
Russian energy than the United States.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/britain-s-inflation-surges-to-a-40-year-high-of-9-percent-20220518-p5amhl
Britain’s inflation surges to a 40-year high of 9pc
Andrew Atkinson
and Philip Aldrick
May 18, 2022
– 5.08pm
London | UK
inflation rose to its highest level since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister
40 years ago, adding to pressure
for action from the government and central bank.
Consumer
prices surged 9 per cent in the year through April, the fastest rate since
March 1982, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday in a report
that marked a bleak moment for living standards. Economists had expected a
reading of 9.1 per cent.
Almost 2 per
cent of the increase came from a rise in energy prices, reflecting a surge in
wholesale markets that drove a 54 per cent increase in consumer bills in April.
Fuel prices also contributed, reflecting higher oil prices after the war in
Ukraine. Both petrol and diesel prices in April rose to a record.
The increase
is more than double the pace of basic wage growth, squeezing consumer spending
power at the sharpest pace on record. The pain is set to intensify, with the
Bank of England predicting double-digit inflation by October, when energy bills
are almost certain to jump again.
-----
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/boris-johnson-and-boe-engulfed-in-crisis-as-uk-inflation-soars-20220518-p5amjt
Boris Johnson and BoE engulfed in crisis as UK inflation soars
Philip Aldrick
May 19, 2022
– 12.44am
London |
Britain’s worst
bout of inflation in 40 years is quickly becoming a crisis both for Prime
Minister Boris Johnson’s government and the Bank of England.
The central
bank is in the eye of the storm after consumer prices surged 9 per cent in the
year through April. Cabinet ministers, economists and even a former BOE boss
are complaining that Governor Andrew Bailey was too slow to act and is failing
in his job to keep inflation to 2 per cent.
That
finger-pointing may be meant to distract from rising pressure on Johnson’s
administration to protect voters
from the biggest squeeze on living standards in memory.
Chancellor of
the Exchequer Rishi Sunak to date has targeted relief at those in work, while
the Labour opposition says help should be extended to pensioners and those on
benefits.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/colour-me-scared-racist-replacement-theory-has-to-be-quashed/news-story/063c45f3d7c93edb92ecaed7d126630e
Colour me scared: racist ‘replacement’ theory has to be quashed
David
Aaronovitch
The Times
May 19, 2022
Sometimes
when someone tells you why they’ve done something terrible – like a mass
shooting, for example – the safest thing to do is to take them at their word.
Last Saturday
an 18-year-old white boy went heavily armed into a shopping centre in Buffalo,
New York, and shot dead ten people he’d never met before. He posted on an
online chat app that he’d chosen the killing place because it had the highest
percentage of black people living and working in it in close enough proximity
to where he lived. In a 180-page screed written to accompany his massacre he
alluded to his belief that something called “The Great Replacement” was taking
place, in which American whites were being supplanted by people of other
colours and ethnicities. This, he believed, had to be resisted.
I won’t name
him and in any case he was just the latest in a bloody line of white men who,
in various countries over the past decade, have murdered the innocent in the
name of stopping this non-existent threat to the white race. There was the
Pittsburgh synagogue killer in 2018, the El Paso and Christchurch
mass-murderers of 2019, the boy who killed the worshippers in Emanuel African
Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston in 2015. As I write this, in some
suburban bedroom somewhere a young white man is planning his own death spree in
the name of preventing white genocide.
As is now the
fashion with half-baked or absurd propositions, this notion of “replacement”
has been dignified with being a theory, and even attributed to a theorist. As I
wrote here recently the French author of the 2011 book The Great Replacement,
Renaud Camus, is “a gay former leftist who underwent a negative epiphany when
he saw women in hijabs beside a Gothic church in a thousand-year-old French
village”.
Just because
something is written in French by a gay man doesn’t make it intellectual.
Camus’s argument – that foreigners and especially Muslims were being
deliberately imported into Europe by a deracinated global elite to replace the
indigenous white, Christian populations – when boiled down has all the subtlety
of a half-brick across the back of the head.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/britain-is-heading-for-economic-oblivion-20220519-p5ampg
Britain is heading for economic oblivion
The prime
minister and his unimpressive cabinet have no idea how to navigate the
cost-of-living crisis facing the country.
Ben Marlow
May 19, 2022
– 3.00pm
The last time
UK inflation was at these levels, British troops fought a war 12,875 kilometres
away in the Falklands, Prince William was born and Steven Spielberg’s ET the
Extra-Terrestrial became the highest grossing film of all time.
Inflation is now at a
40-year high after the consumer prices index rose to 9 per cent in April,
according to the latest ONS figures. That’s the sharpest jump since 1982, which,
as Torsten Bell of the Resolution Foundation pointed out, means much of the
country has never experienced an inflationary shock of this ferocity “in their
working lives”.
Unfortunately,
that also applies to much of the current cabinet, some of whom were barely in
short trousers the last time price spikes this severe tore through the economy
– except the chancellor of the exchequer, who would have been in nappies.
Many
ministers simply won’t even remember the huge economic turmoil of that period,
including the deep recession of 1981 as Margaret Thatcher’s government
desperately tried to tame an inflationary spiral that had started during the
1970s.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/the-cry-from-investors-are-we-there-yet-20220519-p5amn8
The cry from investors: Are we there yet?
Karen Maley Columnist
May 19, 2022
– 5.52pm
After the
drubbing that global share markets have suffered this year, investors now
grapple with one key question: How much more pain lies ahead?
Some
investors believe the market bottom must be getting close. They put the
market’s sharp slide down to fears the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates so aggressively that the US economy will tip into recession.
And, it has
to be said, these fears are not groundless, given that the Fed doesn’t have a
great track record in terms of managing a soft landing for the economy.
Since 1950,
the US central bank has embarked on 14 tightening cycles, and in 11 cases, the
US economy has ended up in recession, and the US share market has fallen by 20
per cent or more, entering a bear phase.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/what-are-sweden-and-finland-thinking-20220519-p5amkg
What are Sweden and Finland thinking?
Abandoning
a long and successful policy of neutrality is a big step, but Vladimir Putin’s
decision to go to war left the countries’ leaders with little choice.
Stephen Walt
May 19, 2022
– 12.27pm
One of the
virtues of a good theory is that it makes sense of events that might otherwise
seem surprising or at least somewhat puzzling. A case in point is the Swedish
and Finnish decision to abandon long traditions of neutrality and apply for
membership in NATO.
At first
glance, the explanation for this decision seems blindingly obvious. Russia
started the most
destructive war in Europe since World War II and has waged that war with
considerable brutality. As the war in Ukraine drags on and threatens to become
a destructive stalemate, Sweden and Finland have concluded that their security
environment is deteriorating and have opted for the greater protection that
they believe NATO membership will provide. If you studied international
relations in college, you might see this as a classic example of
balance-of-power theory at work.
Still, that
explanation leaves a couple of questions unanswered. Abandoning a long and
successful policy of neutrality is a big step, and it could involve significant
costs and risks down the road. This point is especially pertinent in the case
of Sweden, which has co-operated closely with NATO for years and was already
getting many of the benefits of membership with few of the burdens. So, why
change course now?
More
importantly, one might have thought that Russia’s
abysmal military performance in Ukraine would have left Sweden and Finland
feeling more, rather than less, secure. The war has shown that Russia’s armed
forces are simply not very good at conquering other nations, and the
combination of Western sanctions, the costs of the war itself, and the continuing
brain drain of talented young Russians even as the overall population declines
and ages is going to reduce the country’s power potential for years to come.
-----
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/cancerriddled-putin-is-surrounded-by-doctors-and-takes-breaks-during-meetings-for-treatment-claims-exbritish-spy/news-story/baa010b0802fe5cf074a03333f3c869b
‘Cancer-riddled’ Putin is surrounded by doctors and takes breaks during
meetings for treatment, claims ex-British spy
A former
British spy claims ‘cancer-riddled’ Vladimir Putin is surrounded by doctors and
takes breaks during meetings for treatment.
Adrian Zorzut
and The Sun
May 20, 2022
- 10:08AM
A
“cancer-riddled” Vladimir Putin is surrounded by doctors and takes breaks
during meetings for treatment, a British ex-spy has claimed.
Christopher
Steele, who previously worked the Russia desk at MI6 and published intelligence
on Donald Trump’s 2016 US presidential campaign, said the “exact details” of
the ailing autocrat’s illness were still not known, The
Sun reported.
The
ex-intelligence officer said Putin was “constantly” being followed around with
doctors and isn’t able to pull through meetings without having a break for
medical treatment.
“He’s
constantly accompanied around the place by a team of doctors,” Steele told
British radio station LBC.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/can-ukraine-win-war-with-russia-five-scenarios-for-the-next-phase/news-story/d651d7eeef5df3462b83956d0cfab47f
Can Ukraine win war with Russia? Five scenarios for the next phase
Stephen
Fidler
Dow Jones
May 20, 2022
Nobody knows
how or when the war will end in Ukraine, but it’s clear that right now Russia
isn’t winning. According to Western governments and private analysts, Moscow
failed to achieve its initial goal of a lightning strike into Kyiv to take down
the government. And success for its Plan B, a scaled-down offensive to push
Ukrainian forces back in the east and southeast of the country, looks
increasingly difficult.
Some things
that seemed highly probable at the start of the war, such as the collapse of
the Ukrainian state, now are seen as unlikely. Ukraine is in an existential
fight, said the chief of the British defence staff, Adm. Tony Radakin in a
speech in London on Monday, “and it is going to survive.” In this latest phase
of the war, tank battles are being supplanted by artillery-dominated exchanges.
The Russians are undertaking offensives in some places, including in the
eastern region of Luhansk. They finally overcame the last remaining Ukrainian
holdouts in the southern port city of Mariupol. Elsewhere, the Ukrainians are
counterattacking, most notably in the north beyond Kharkiv.
“The war is
entering a protracted phase,” Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov told
European Union defence ministers on Tuesday. He said there were “many
indications of Russia preparing for a long-term military operation,” including
engineering and fortification works in the Kherson and Zaporizhya areas.
Even so,
sooner or later, the war will end in a ceasefire or armistice. Given the new
realities on the ground, here are five possible scenarios on where the conflict
could go, some of which could follow from another.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-coming-food-catastrophe-fixing-it-is-everyones-business/news-story/009ad29d7d1627dfbcfb206a77a83661
The coming food catastrophe: fixing it is everyone’s business
The Economist
9:08AM May
20, 2022
By invading
Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far from the
battlefield — and on a scale even he may regret. The war is battering a global
food system weakened by Covid-19, climate change and an energy shock. Ukraine’s
exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia’s are threatened.
Together, the two countries supply 12 per cent of traded calories. Wheat
prices, up 53 per cent since the start of the year, jumped a further 6 six per
cent on May 16th, after India said it would suspend exports because of an
alarming heatwave.
The widely
accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity
of what may lie ahead. António Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned on
May 18th that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food
shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already
raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by
440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the
war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of
millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread,
children will be stunted and people will starve.
Mr Putin must
not use food as a weapon. Shortages are not the inevitable outcome of war.
World leaders should see hunger as a global problem urgently requiring a global
solution.
Russia and
Ukraine supply 28 per cent of globally traded wheat, 29 per cent of the barley,
15 per cent of the maize and 75 per cent of the sunflower oil. Russia and
Ukraine contribute about half the cereals imported by Lebanon and Tunisia; for
Libya and Egypt the figure is two-thirds. Ukraine’s food exports provide the
calories to feed 400m people. The war is disrupting these supplies because
Ukraine has mined its waters to deter an assault, and Russia is blockading the
port of Odessa.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fox-and-its-white-supremacists-in-suits-give-succour-to-mass-killers-20220519-p5amoj.html
Fox and its white supremacists in suits give succour to mass killers
Anne Summers
Columnist
May 21, 2022
— 5.00am
White
supremacy in the United States was once typified by men in white hoods
brandishing burning crosses. They were concentrated in the former confederacy
southern states and were unequivocally aligned with the Democratic Party.
Today’s white
supremacists tend to wear expensive suits and to work out of corporate or
political offices. You will find more than a few at 1211 Avenue of the Americas
in New York City, which is the headquarters of News Corp and its subsidiary Fox
Corp, and in the big white building that sits atop of Capitol Hill in
Washington DC. All these men and women, without exception, are firmly within
the Republican Party.
Between the
end of the Civil War (1865) and 1950 more than
6400 black men, women and children were lynched in the 12 Southern states,
the victims of extrajudicial acts of hatred and revenge whose “black bodies
swinging in the southern breeze” made for “a strange and bitter crop”, as
Billie Holiday expressed it in her iconic 1939 song Strange Fruit.
On March 22
this year, after more than 100 previous failed legislative attempts, President
Joe Biden signed into law the Emmett
Till Antilynching Act. The law is named for 14-year-old Emmett Till, who
was lynched in Mississippi in 1955 for apparently flirting with a 21-year-old
white woman in her family’s grocery store.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/sp-500-pares-losses-after-hitting-bearmarket-territory/news-story/d421c4ed2559fa7eb91fc30f8c966082
S&P 500 pares losses after touching bear-market territory
By Okane
Atani and Anna Hirtenstein
9:20AM May
21, 2022
A weeks-long
stock sell-off took on new intensity Friday, nearly ending the bull market that
began after the start of the pandemic.
Stocks rose
at the open, then reversed course, falling throughout most of the turbulent
session. At one point, the S&P 500 slid so far it was on track to close at
least 20% below its January peak — what would have been considered a bear
market. A comeback in the final hour of the trading day pushed the index
higher, with the S&P 500 ending up 0.57 point, or less than 0.1%, at
3901.36; at its intraday low, it was down 2.3%.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average finished up 8.77 points, also less than 0.1%, to 31261.90.
The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite fell 33.88 points, or 0.3%, to 11354.62.
It has been
decades since stocks have fallen for such a prolonged period. The Dow
industrials notched their eighth straight weekly loss, their longest such
streak since 1932, near the height of the Great Depression. The S&P 500 and
Nasdaq had their seventh straight weekly loss, their longest such streak since
2001, after the dot-com bubble burst. All three indexes finished the week down
at least 2.9%.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-the-west-is-strangling-putin-s-economy-20220520-p5an44.html
How the West is strangling Putin’s economy
By Paul
Krugman
May 20, 2022
— 1.51pm
Russia’s
military failure in Ukraine has defied almost everyone’s predictions. First
came abject defeat at the gates of Kyiv. Then came the incredible shrinking
blitzkrieg, as attempts to encircle Ukrainian forces in the supposedly more
favourable terrain in the east have devolved into a slow-motion battle of
attrition.
What’s
important about this second Russian setback is that it interacts with another
big surprise: the remarkable — and, in some ways, puzzling — effectiveness, at
least so far, of Western
economic sanctions against the Putin regime, sanctions that are working in
an unexpected way.
As soon as
the war began, there was a great deal of talk about bringing economic
pressure to bear against the invading nation. Most of this focused on ways
to cut off Russia’s exports, especially its sales of oil and natural gas.
Unfortunately, however, there has been shamefully little meaningful movement on
that front. The Biden administration has banned imports of Russian oil, but
this will have little effect unless other nations follow our lead. And Europe,
in particular, still hasn’t placed an embargo on Russian oil, let alone done
anything substantive to wean itself from dependence on Russian gas.
As a result,
Russian exports have held up, and the country appears to be headed for a record
trade surplus. So is Vladimir Putin winning the economic war?
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/military-chiefs-made-scapegoats-for-russias-battlefield-failures/news-story/9d8d2b453ea06151355c3e8593ae8d26
Military chiefs made scapegoats for Russia’s battlefield failures
By Larisa
Brown
The Times
5:49PM May
20, 2022
Russia has
sacked senior commanders for their “poor performance” during the invasion of
Ukraine amid a toxic environment of “cover-ups and scapegoating”, according to
British intelligence.
Lieutenant
General Serhiy Kisel, who commanded the elite 1st Guards Tank Army of the
western military district, had been suspended for his failure to capture
Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, the Ministry of Defence in London said.
Vice-Admiral
Igor Osipov, who commanded Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, had also “likely” been
suspended after the sinking of the cruiser Moskva last month, officials
confirmed.
While General
Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, appeared to remain in his
post – he phoned his US counterpart General Mark Milley overnight on Thursday
– it was unclear whether he “retains the confidence of President Putin”, the
ministry said. A Western military source said this week that General Gerasimov
and Vladimir Putin were believed to be making low-level tactical decisions of
the sort normally decided by a colonel or brigadier.
-----
I look
forward to comments on all this!
-----
David.