February 02,
2023 Edition
-----
As we settle
properly into 2023 it seems little has changed in the US other than the sadly
familiar repeat of police killing of innocents every once in a while and
ridiculous level of gun violence for which there seems to be no solution.
Plans are now
in place to send heavy armour to Ukraine but will it arrive in time?
China seems
to be on the mend after COVID.
In OZ the
proper treatment of racial disparities is again very much on the agenda sadly –
again seemingly unfixable….we need smarter policy in many areas…
-----
Major Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/australia-is-just-different-when-it-comes-to-corporate-bonds-20230122-p5cek8
Australia is just different when it comes to corporate bonds
A culture
of bank term deposits and equities means would-be retail bond investors are
exposed to risks they may not understand and can’t bear.
Jeremy Cooper Financial
industry expert
Jan 22, 2023
– 1.55pm
The
Australian Financial Review has recently reported on the failures of the
Australian retail corporate bond market and called out red tape as the culprit.
It is true
that the domestic Australian non-bank corporate bond market is sub-scale,
bordering on anaemic. The question is why? There are myriad compelling factors.
Historically,
Australian banks didn’t want to be disintermediated by market-based finance
(that is, debt issued by corporates into a market, or bonds). They preferred
lending direct to customers, possibly even at overly competitive prices;
ensuring that no such market ever evolved.
Even today,
Australian banks offer attractive term deposit rates that dampen demand for
other types of retail fixed income investing. Not only can TDs be attractively
priced, but they’re risk-free up to $250,000. End of story for most households.
Australian
corporates find it attractive to access the wholesale markets in
the United States, where large issues can be keenly priced and executed
smoothly. There is a well-oiled ecosystem of intermediaries who facilitate this
and are happy with the status quo.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/why-australian-schools-are-failing-20230122-p5cejh
Why Australian schools are failing
The education
system seems unable to turn new reform and funding inputs into better outcomes
for school students. Where does it fall down?
Glenn Fahey Contributor
Jan 22, 2023
– 1.02pm
A new Productivity Commission
report confirms what’s long been known: Australia’s school systems are
failing on the twin goals of educational excellence and equity.
Little
progress has been made in raising the bar, levelling the bar, or ensuring more
students are able to meet basic standards. Most damning is the conclusion that
most who fall behind early in school never go on to beat minimum expectations
in literacy and numeracy.
This is a far
cry from the lofty ambitions of decades of reform efforts – including two
rounds of Gonski reviews, two rounds of National Innovation and Science
Agendas, several reviews of teacher training, Building and Digital Education
Revolutions, among many more.
The
commission blames vague and bureaucratic policy wonk-speak for governments not
making any dent in outcomes. It’s right to do so.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-buys-potent-and-powerful-sea-mines-to-deter-china-20230119-p5ce1d.html
Australia buys ‘potent and powerful’ sea mines to deter China
By Matthew Knott
January 23,
2023 — 5.00am
Key points
·
Australia will spend up to $1 billion on
high-tech underwater weapons to deter China from sending ships into our waters.
·
It’s the country’s first major investment in sea
mines since the Vietnam War.
·
Naval experts say sea mines are the most
effective weapons system ever deployed in maritime warfare.
Australia
will make its first major investment in sea mines since the Vietnam War,
spending up to $1 billion on high-tech underwater weapons to deter China and
other potential adversaries from sending ships and submarines into the nation’s
waters.
Sea mines are
self-contained explosive devices that can be placed in key strategic choke
points, such as straits and harbours, to blow up encroaching enemy naval
vessels.
The weapons
have been used in virtually every maritime conflict since the 14th century, but
fell out of favour with Western naval leaders in recent decades, including in
Australia.
China has
built up a stockpile of up to 100,000 sea mines as part of its massive military
expansion.
-----
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-microsoft-is-betting-14b-on-ai-20230124-p5cf0q
Microsoft itself shows how AI will change your job
With its
investment in Open AI, the tech giant knows only too well how artificial
intelligence will change the way people work.
Jan 24, 2023
– 11.10am
Microsoft
founder Bill Gates says the latest wave of artificial intelligence that has
been ushered in by ChatGPT is yet to cost anyone a
job at the tech giant.
But
Microsoft’s own blog post announcing its $US10 billion ($14
billion) investment in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI shows that AI is changing the
nature of work inside the group.
While ChatGPT
has captured an extraordinary amount of attention since its launch in November,
it’s been more than 18 months since Microsoft subsidiary GitHub, which provides
tools to help software developers do their jobs, launched a product called
Copilot.
As Microsoft
noted on Monday night, Copilot is powered by OpenAI technology. It helps a
developer create software by offering prompts and suggestions based on the code
the developer has already written – not unlike the way Microsoft and Google’s
email and word-processing product suggest phrases or replies based on the
contents of a document or email.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/besieged-alice-springs-waiting-to-erupt-20230124-p5cf0f
Besieged Alice Springs ‘waiting to erupt’
Central
Australia is a region that should have huge opportunities for the traditional
owners, especially in roles that are related to their culture and connection to
country.
Paul Cleary
Jan 24, 2023
– 3.47pm
When I first arrived
in Central Australia to work for a large land council three years ago, the
Aboriginal chief executive told me how difficult it was to drive economic
development for the benefit of his people.
His
organisation, he lamented, was imbued with the “soft bigotry of low
expectations”, a reference to “nay saying” non-Indigenous bureaucrats who shot
down ideas that related to Aboriginal employment and small business
development.
Some of his
units were devoid of Aboriginal staff and managers especially, and there was
little effort to bring Aboriginal people into an organisation that offered many
career pathways.
His comment
about low expectations comes from a line used by George Bush about the left’s
view of minorities, especially black Americans, but it is certainly an apt
summary of the challenges faced by marginalised people of Central Australia.
Upon
arriving in Alice, it was immediately clear to me that Alice Springs was
like a mini Johannesburg that was waiting to erupt.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/indigenous-affairs-minister-says-nt-clearly-got-it-wrong-lifting-alcohol-bans-20230125-p5cf98.html
Indigenous Affairs Minister says NT ‘clearly got it wrong’ lifting alcohol
bans
By Angus Thompson
January 25,
2023 — 8.55am
Minister for
Aboriginal Australians Linda Burney says she has been pushing the Northern
Territory government for months to get tougher on alcohol following persistent
calls from Alice Springs community leaders to act.
The morning
after the federal and territory governments jointly announced an overhaul of
alcohol sales to curb rising crime in the central Australian town, Burney told
ABC’s Radio National Breakfast on Wednesday said the territory government had
admitted “they clearly got it wrong” in not responding sooner.
Federal laws
restricting alcohol in some communities were allowed to lapse in July.
Alcohol-driven crime has risen dramatically in the Territory as liquor became
legal in some areas for the first time in 15 years.
The Central
Australian Aboriginal Congress wrote to Burney about violence and alcohol on
June 9, shortly after the minister was sworn in, and several other Indigenous
groups have been calling for bans ever since.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/sydney-house-prices-post-steepest-annual-fall-on-record-20230123-p5ceuh.html
Sydney house prices post steepest annual fall on record
By Kate Burke and Melissa Heagney-Bayliss
January 25,
2023 — 12.01am
Key points
·
Sydney’s median house price has dropped 11.3 per
cent from its market peak.
·
The pace of declines has slowed, but experts say
further price falls are to come.
·
Sutherland recorded the largest price falls in
the December quarter.
Property
listings
Sydney house
prices have had their steepest annual fall on record, declining 10.9 per cent
last year as rising interest rates took a toll on buyer demand and spending
power.
Sydney’s
median house price fell more than $170,000 to $1,413,658 last year, the latest
Domain House Price Report, released on Wednesday, shows.
However, the
pace of declines slowed in the December quarter when the median fell 2.1 per
cent — three times slower than the previous three months.
House prices
are now 11.3 per below their early 2022 peak, but are still 24.2 per cent
higher than they were when the market troughed in mid-2020.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/more-russian-attacks-are-a-matter-of-time-and-geography-australia-must-look-and-learn-20230123-p5ceu6.html
More Russian attacks are a matter of time, and geography. Australia must
look and learn
Mick
Ryan
Military
leader and strategist
January 25,
2023 — 5.00am
Last week,
participants from nearly 50 countries assembled for their eighth Ramstein
summit to discuss support for Ukraine in its defence against the Russian
invasion. With the recent Russian mobilisation of troops, the appointment of
the country’s most senior soldier, General Gerasimov, as overall commander, and
the step-up in missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, the need for military assistance
is acute. The Russians will be launching more offensives in Ukraine. It is only
matter of time and geography.
Europe and
the United States have now evolved their strategy for Ukraine. They have
shifted from a strategy focused on defending Ukraine, to one encompassing the
defence of Ukraine and the defeat of Russia. The quality and quantity of
military aid being provided ensures Ukraine has the capacity and confidence to
conduct offensives in 2023 to reclaim its territory.
Importantly,
this summit, like those before, has breathed new life into the North Atlantic
Treaty Organisation. An alliance established at the beginning of the Cold War
to provide for the collective defence of Western Europe, it had been an
institution in search of a cause until February 24 last year, when Russia
invaded Ukraine. The existence of NATO, while often used by Putin to justify
his invasion, has checked Russian aggression beyond Ukraine and has
co-ordinated essential military intelligence and other support to Ukraine.
It is an
alliance that has no parallel in the western Pacific.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/treasurer-slams-pwc-tax-leak-as-shocking-breach-of-trust-20230125-p5cfdj
Treasurer slams PwC tax leak as ‘shocking breach of trust’
Edmund Tadros, John Kehoe and Neil Chenoweth
Jan 25, 2023
– 3.48pm
Federal
Treasurer Jim Chalmers accused the nation’s largest accounting firm, PwC, of a
“shocking breach of trust” after certain partners and staff leaked confidential
information obtained while advising the government on measures to combat tax
avoidance.
Dr Chalmers
said the PwC partners who shared the secret information with clients and
prospective clients had put at risk the established practice of government
consulting business experts when developing policy.
The Treasurer
said he was “absolutely furious, absolutely ropeable” and vowed to implement
recommendations effectively ignored by the previous Coalition government to
beef up the powers of the Tax Practitioners Board (TPB) to police the nation’s
tax advisers.
“This is a
shocking breach of trust, an appalling breach of trust,” he said. “And as a
government that wants to be consultative where we can, it puts that sort of
consultation at risk. It puts the quality of economic decision-making and
policymaking at risk as well.”
-----
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/01/26/australia-day-two-day-festival-kohler/
Alan Kohler: Happy Australia Day. Let’s make it a two-day festival
Alan Kohler
January 26 is
a ridiculous national day, but it’s the one we’ve got, and we’re stuck with it.
It’s just the
day in 1788 when the ships carrying convicts from England decamped from Botany
Bay to Port Jackson because it was a better spot.
They had
landed a week earlier, but the place was nothing like the nirvana James Cook
and his botanist Joseph Banks had described. The anchorage was too shallow,
there was little fresh water and the soil was poor, so Arthur Phillip decided
to check out an inlet 10 miles up the coast.
Cook had
sailed into Botany Bay by chance, but then went straight past Port Jackson as
he headed north to claim the whole island continent for Britain in the Torres
Strait on August 22, 1770, calling it New South Wales for some weird reason.
Apparently, he thought it looked a bit like South Wales.
He was in the
neighbourhood to observe the transit of Venus from the Pacific Ocean, for which
he was paid a bonus of 100 guineas, and first touched Australian soil at Point
Hicks in what became Victoria on April 19, 1770, after spending time in New
Zealand.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/we-have-to-talk-about-adolf-hitler-20221208-p5c4wf
We have to talk about Adolf Hitler
The Nazi
dictator has gone from being the worst embodiment of evil in human history to
just another meme to be exploited in our social media and petty political
skirmishes.
Andreas Kluth
Jan 25, 2023
– 5.09am
We could try
to just dismiss people such as Ye, the celebrity formerly known as Kanye West,
as unhinged. After all, American talk shows – like the one on which Ye slavered his latest drivel from
underneath the black ski mask he was wearing – teem with bigoted twaddle.
Nobody takes that stuff seriously, right?
But ask
yourself how one of the few remaining Holocaust survivors would hear the words
Ye uttered. Or, for that matter, how one of the many Holocaust deniers will now
use them. No, we can’t just call Ye and his ilk deranged and move on. We’ve got
a problem.
Ye’s topic
was Adolf Hitler. The rapper apparently sees the Fuehrer as yet another
right-wing victim of the woke and lamestream media’s fake news. “Every human
being has something of value that they brought to the table, especially
Hitler,” Ye insisted. “There’s a lot of things that I love about Hitler, a lot
of things.” He clarified: “I am a Nazi.” More generally, Ye added, “we got to
stop dissing the Nazis all the time.”
A few days
earlier, Ye and another anti-Semitic Holocaust denier, Nick Fuentes, had dined with Donald Trump at the former US president’s
resort in Florida. But it’s not only the odious bully pulpit that comes with
celebrity that makes these haters dangerous. It’s the way they simultaneously
propagate and embody a preexisting trend toward general ignorance and bad
faith, the preconditions for a resurgence in anti-Semitism, racism and hate.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/xi-says-china-australia-ties-heading-in-right-direction-20230126-p5cfrl
Xi says China-Australia ties heading in ‘right direction’
Andrew Tillett
Political correspondent
Jan 26, 2023
– 5.57pm
Canberra |
Chinese President Xi Jinping has sent a fresh signal about the revival of the
bilateral relationship with Australia, saying ties are heading in the “right
direction” in an Australia Day message.
Prime
Minister Anthony Albanese declined to comment on the diplomatic courtesy note
from Mr Xi to Governor-General David Hurley.
But it comes
just days after it was revealed Trade Minister Don Farrell would hold a virtual
meeting with his Chinese counterpart in coming weeks to discuss Beijing’s trade
sanctions that have nobbled $20 billion worth of exports to China.
State-run
news agency Xinhua said Mr Xi sent a message to Governor-General Hurley to mark
Australia Day. The Chinese leader said he attached “great importance to the
development of relations between
the two countries”.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-voice-is-not-going-to-fix-alice-springs-20230126-p5cfm7
The Voice is not going to fix Alice Springs
Any policy
which does not increase economic participation and independence is a waste of
time and money.
Nyunggai Warren
MundineI ndigenous advocate
Jan 26, 2023
– 2.10pm
This week
senior politicians, including Prime Minister Anthony
Albanese, descended on Alice Springs amidst an escalating crisis of alcohol
related violence and crime in Aboriginal communities. This crisis is not a
surprise. Last year, alcohol bans were lifted in hundreds of town camps, remote
communities and homeland communities across the Northern Territory and the
Albanese government proudly abolished cashless welfare across the country. Many
Aboriginal people, including Senator Jacinta Price and myself, warned that
abolishing these measures would be a disaster. And here we are.
Rather than
take responsibility and admit error, Albanese travelled halfway across the
country to deliver mealy-mouthed statements about the problem being “complex”
and people need to be “treated with respect”. How about showing some respect to
the women and children living in daily fear of violence and abuse?
Bizarrely,
Albanese also thought this would be a good opportunity to plug his proposed
Voice to parliament. As if that will change any of this.
It won’t. The
Voice to parliament won’t lead to any practical improvements in Aboriginal
lives.
The problems
in Alice Springs aren’t hard to understand. The world over, social breakdown,
family violence and abuse, drug and alcohol abuse go hand in hand with kids not
going to school, adults not in work and chronic intergenerational welfare
dependency. And the only way to lift Aboriginal people – any people – out of
this is economic participation.
-----
https://www.theage.com.au/national/we-are-sovereign-tens-of-thousands-take-to-streets-for-invasion-day-rally-20230126-p5cfpr.html
Division over Voice as huge crowd turns out for Invasion Day rally
By Bianca Hall
January 26,
2023 — 5.23pm
Standing before
a crowd stretching further than the eye could see, Alkira Austin’s voice
wavered only for a moment.
“My father
was forcibly removed [from his family],” she said.
“In 2011 he
received a state apology, and 12 years later, one
in nine Aboriginal babies under the age of one are still being removed by
the state government. This is the worst proportion in the country and more than
double the national average ... stop stealing our babies!”
Anger,
despair and pride filled central Melbourne on Thursday, where tens of thousands
of people created a human sea of black, red and yellow as they marched from
Parliament House to Federation Square as part of the annual Invasion Day rally.
Organisers said it was the biggest march to protest Australia Day – and
injustices faced by Aboriginal people – yet.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/has-investing-s-only-free-lunch-lost-its-lustre-20230120-p5ce75.html
Has investing’s only ‘free lunch’ lost its lustre?
By John Collett
January 28,
2023 — 5.00am
Diversification
is often described as the only free lunch in investing, but the strategy failed
to protect investors last year when almost all investments lost money.
Even
investments that typically perform well in times of high inflation, such as
bonds and gold, failed to provide protection to investors last year. That
failure has led some to question
the future of traditional diversification.
Minh Tieu,
the head of ETF capital markets, Asia-Pacific, at Vanguard, one of the world’s
largest fund managers, defends the diversification strategy, saying one
negative year of returns does not mean diversification is dead – far from it.
“Sticking
with a diversified asset allocation and avoiding the urge to time the market is
the best way to achieve long-term investment success, no matter which asset
class is predicted to outperform,” Tieu says.
Just how
dismal a year it was for investors is best illustrated by the performance of
the typical balanced superannuation investment option – the option that most
people have. It is designed to produce steadily compounding returns by
spreading the money around.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/review/disrupting-the-narrative-the-case-for-taking-australias-colonial-statues-down/news-story/80fdb5053a922b90ec083f84f2e55efa
Disrupting the narrative: the case for taking Australia’s colonial statues
down
By Bronwyn
Carlson and Terri Farrelly
Updated
6:39AM January 28, 2023, First published at 12:00AM January 28, 2023
The toppling
of statues is nothing new. For as long as we have erected monuments, we have
also defaced and destroyed them. Ancient civilisations removed commemorations
that no longer reflected their social values, and so, too, have modern
populations.
The French
Revolution saw the destruction of many monuments representing the monarchy. The
US Army televised its toppling of the statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad in
2003, an event that, even more than the death of the leader by hanging in 2006,
signified the end of Iraq’s Baath dictatorship.
For a long
time, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples have been registering their
discontent with colonial commemorations (statues, plaques and the like) and who
and what they honour, including the claim that Captain James Cook “discovered”
this country and the myth of peaceful settlement.
These very
arguments divided the nation during the 1988 bicentenary and during the
“history wars” of the 1990s. In fact, as professor of history Mark McKenna has
pointed out, all that is remarkable about this debate is the fact that a public
declaration that Cook did not discover Australia is still “capable of causing
controversy” – although “controversy” is clearly an understatement.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/beijing-rapprochement-we-should-trade-very-carefully/news-story/71d8bb8b494341d6a5d7c94805e47277
Beijing rapprochement: We should trade very carefully
Alan Dupont
12:00AM
January 28, 2023
All the signs
point to the beginning of a rollback in Australia’s testy relations with China
after a three-year deep freeze, lowlighted by the almost complete absence of
official contact, Beijing’s wolf-warrior diplomacy and an unprecedented
$20bn-a-year coercive trade hit on a wide range of Australian exports.
Trade and
Tourism Minister Don Farrell is set to meet his Chinese counterpart in the
coming weeks. Expectations are high that this will be the catalyst for a
relationship reset that has broad, in-principle domestic support.
A good
outcome would play to Labor’s narrative that only it can restore bilateral ties
gratuitously damaged by the Coalition’s aggressive rhetoric and inability to
patch up differences.
“We seek to
co-operate where we can and will disagree where we must,” says Foreign Minister
Penny Wong,
in a now familiar mantra intended to reassure Australians that the government
can achieve this goal without compromising core national interests.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-to-expect-from-the-yes-and-no-campaigns-for-the-voice-20230127-p5cfxo.html
What to expect from the Yes and No campaigns for the Voice
By Anthony Galloway
January 29,
2023 — 5.00am
The campaign
for an Indigenous Voice to parliament will launch next month with an onslaught
of door-knocks, letter-box drops, street stalls and online advertisements, as
it looks to counter two narratives that could derail the referendum.
As the ‘Yes’
side prepares for the advertising and campaign blitz, the organising committee
behind the ‘No’ side will adopt a strategy of supporting constitutional
recognition while opposing the Voice.
Uluru Statement
co-author and constitutional lawyer Megan Davis said the “week of action”
starting on February 20 - which will act as the launch of the Yes side’s
campaign - will be the first time many Australians have the opportunity to hear
about the Voice.
“It will be
the beginning of the momentum for ‘Yes’ as we move towards the referendum at
the tail end of the year,” she said.
-----
COVID-19 Information.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/resmed-hits-1-4b-in-quarterly-revenue-20230126-p5cfrn
ResMed hits $1.4b in quarterly revenue
Yolanda Redrup Reporter
Jan 27, 2023
– 9.58am
Sleep
disorder and breathing devices company ResMed has significantly increased
device production in the last few months, as its supply chain improved but
competitors struggled, leading to a 10 per cent jump in revenue in the first
half of 2023.
For the half,
ResMed’s revenue grew to $US1.98 billion ($2.8 billion), driven by a strong
second quarter, in which revenue leapt 16 per cent to more than $US1 billion,
meeting analyst consensus estimates.
The San
Diego-based, dual-listed company makes products to help treat sleep apnoea,
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma. It also makes software
products to support patients and clinicians.
Its growth
was driven by the Americas region - US, Canada and Latin America - which had
strong devices growth in the half, with revenue up 32 per cent.
-----
Climate Change.
-----
No entries in
this category
-----
Royal Commissions And The Like.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-voice-is-in-danger-of-being-drowned-out-by-the-noise-20230127-p5cfuz
The Voice is in danger of being drowned out by the noise
Politics
faces the spectre of people making up their minds on a defining issue before a
date is even set.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Jan 27, 2023
– 5.06pm
January 26 is
not the best day to gauge the progress of a campaign to recognise Indigenous
Australians in the Constitution, and to establish a body that gives them a
platform from which to be heard by the government and the parliament on issues
that affect them.
It is a raw
day for Indigenous Australia, and equally a day when many Australians feel
entitled to celebrate the country as it is, without reflecting on its historic
significance.
Still, it
would have been dispiriting to supporters of the Voice to see the day marked by
an evolution in opposition from a position of there not being enough “detail”
about how such a body could work, to a sense that the underlying constitutional
question of recognition – and why that was important – had got lost in the
melee.
Equally,
there were hostility and clear
divisions within the First Nations community, with some not only arguing
against supporting the Voice because they don’t believe it will change
anything, but claiming it would actually undermine Indigenous rights.
A lot of
people will not have been paying much attention over the summer to the Voice
debate, despite the increasing noise it has been generating.
-----
National Budget Issues.
-----
https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2023/01/23/liberal-party-future-kohler/
6:00am, Jan
23, 2023 Updated: 6m ago
Alan Kohler: The Liberal Party is a retirement village for male baby
boomers
Alan Kohler
The Liberal
Party’s biggest problem, unmentioned in the review of the 2022 election result
by Senator Jane Hume and Brian Loughnane, is that young people aren’t voting
for it.
It has a
problem with women as well, of course, but millennials are not voting for it
and they are no longer getting more conservative as they get older, which means
that conservative parties face inexorable long-term oblivion.
The Liberal
Party has become a retirement village for male baby boomers like me, and like
all residents of retirement villages, we’re not long for the world.
That would be
fine if Winston Churchill’s quote were still true: “If a man is not a socialist
by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by the time
he is 40, he has no brain.”
Whether or
not Churchill actually said that, it has long been a truism of politics that
people tend to get more conservative as they get older, but that’s not true any
more.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/recession-warning-over-next-rates-hike/news-story/4c1f7457685c49f253b54bd702a4c2f6
Recession warning over next rates hike
By PATRICK COMMINS
Updated
7:48AM January 23, 2023, First published at 10:30PM January 22, 2023
Households
are “at the mercy” of a Reserve Bank that, in its quest to restore its
inflation-fighting credentials, risks tipping the economy into recession this year
if it chooses to keep hiking rates.
Ahead of key
consumer price growth data on Wednesday that could show inflation ended last
year as high as 7.5 per cent, Deloitte Access Economics’ flagship Business
Outlook report warned that a “dramatic” slowdown was already likely in 2023,
even without the widely anticipated ninth straight rate hike to 3.35 per cent
at the RBA’s board meeting on February 7.
The average
variable mortgage holder with half-a-million dollars in debt will have their annual
repayments raised $10,000 as a result of the past year’s interest rate rises.
Deloitte
partner Stephen Smith said a collapse in household spending through the first
half of this year would drag growth from 3.6 per cent last year, to just 1.7
per cent in 2023.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/trading-day/asx-to-jump-as-us-investors-bet-on-a-lower-rate-rise/live-coverage/321e23eb97d4ca4c6a9d4ce83614a53e#88037
Economy slows, inflation peaked: NAB
DAVID ROGERS
24 Jan 2023
NAB’s monthly
business survey shows the economy was beginning to slow and inflation was
passed its peak as of December, reinforcing market expectations that a peak in
interest rates is near.
Business
conditions fell 8 points to be up 12 index points, with trading, profitability
and employment down. Confidence rose 3 points to be down 1 index points, but
remained well-below average.
Confidence
rose in all industries except transport and utilities. Leading indicators fell
slightly, with forward orders and capacity utilisation down. Forward orders
fell in all industries except mining and retail.
“Forward
orders have softened over recent months, likely reflecting a cooling in demand,
while any backlogs are being worked through,” said NAB chief economist, Alan
Oster.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/postlockdown-boom-fades-as-rates-hurt-businesses/news-story/890704c269a12cafddd836ccc0792af8
Post-lockdown boom fades as rates hurt businesses
By PATRICK COMMINS
12:06PM
January 24, 2023
Businesses
reported deteriorating conditions into the end of 2022, as the post-lockdown
economic boom fades and surging interest rates begin to bite.
NAB’s latest
survey of corporate Australia showed firms were still enjoying a “healthy”
operating environment in December, but also revealed a “significant easing” in
conditions.
Confidence,
however, remained deeply negative despite recovering a little December, the
report showed.
NAB Chief
Economist Alan Oster said “after holding up relatively well in recent months,
business conditions eased significantly in December with the trading
conditions, profitability and employment indexes all falling”.
“The falls
were significant and occurred in every sector,” Mr Oster said.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/new-fiji-pm-rabuka-gets-tough-on-china/live-coverage/907170fbd20c7b84a221190a13d143b4#88181
Travel, power prices rise as inflation hits 7.8pc
PATRICK COMMINS
Inflation
accelerated to 7.8 per cent in the year to December, from 7.3 per cent in
September.
The
Australian Bureau of Statistics’ consumer price index rose by 1.9 per cent in
the three months to December, versus 1.8 per cent in the previous quarter.
The biggest
contributors to inflation in the final quarter of 2022 were a 13 per cent jump
in holiday travel and accommodation, while electricity prices jumped by 8.6 per
cent.
Leading into
today’s CPI reading, financial markets were pricing in a 40 per cent
probability of a rate hike from 3.1 per cent to 3.35 per cent when the RBA
board meets on February 7.
But the
stronger than anticipated final inflation reading for 2022 suggests that a rate
hike next month is now more likely.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/inflation-jumps-to-near-33-year-high-raising-heat-on-rates-20230125-p5cfba
Inflation ‘peaks’ near 33-year high, ‘cements’ rate rises
Ronald Mizen Economics
correspondent
Jan 25, 2023
– 12.08pm
Annual
inflation jumped to a near 33-year high 7.8 per cent in the December quarter,
below the Reserve Bank’s 8 per cent forecast, but economists said underlying
price momentum cemented more interest rate rises.
Headline CPI
was up 1.9 per cent over the quarter, driven largely by significant price rises
in both domestic and international travel and accommodation, and a long-flagged
increase in electricity bills.
Treasurer Jim
Chalmers said it was his expectation
that inflation had now peaked, but warned “extreme price pressures” were
not yet a thing of the past for stressed household budgets.
“Inflation
will still be higher than we’d like, for longer than we’d like, on the other
side of peak inflation,” Dr Chalmers told reporters in Canberra.
The result in
the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data was well above economist
expectations of a 7.5 per cent through the year growth, but below the RBA’s
most recent forecasts.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/inflation-green-lights-200000-lift-in-taxfree-super/news-story/6a4966c5f22413852b739f1fdc7e12e5
Inflation green lights $200,000 lift in tax-free super
James Kirby
5:21PM
January 25, 2023
A
stronger-than-expected inflation number means investors will now be able to put
an extra $200,000 into tax-free superannuation this year.
The
extraordinary “double indexation” – which kicks in on July 1 – means the total
amount that can be held in individual super accounts where the earnings are tax
free will move up from $1.7m to $1.9m.
Such a
significant jump in so-called super caps will create a headache for the
government as special tax treatment inside super is already under attack and
there is major pressure to cut back on tax breaks for wealthier investors.
The sheer
pace of the inflation increase over 2022 has caught many investors and
financial advisers by surprise. The tax-free super cap was introduced in 2016
and the original limit was $1.6m.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/back-to-the-drawing-board-after-wakeup-call/news-story/afcd56f445d6f90bb92177c0bcc4c4a4
Back to the drawing board after wake-up call
Patrick Commins
6:07AM
January 26, 2023
Just as
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe and Jim Chalmers were hoping for a sign that
inflation was loosening its grip on the economy, Wednesday’s consumer price
report will force them to stick with policy choices they would much prefer not
to make.
Dr Lowe would
dearly like to press pause on the most aggressive rate cycle in three decades,
but the official data showing consumer price growth ended the year at 7.8 per
cent and showed no signs of moderating comes as a wake-up call that the
inflation challenge is as pressing as ever.
The end of
the worst of the global energy crisis, falling shipping rates and declining
demand for goods amid a worldwide slowdown were supposed to blunt cost-of-living
pressures over coming months and allow the RBA to take its foot off the brake.
Instead,
economists on Wednesday afternoon were adding extra rate hikes into their
forecasts, saying a ninth consecutive increase next month was now a given.
With hundreds
of billions in fixed-rate mortgages rolling off record low rates to much higher
ones, there is a tsunami of higher interest repayments about to swamp family
budgets.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/chalmers-new-economic-blueprint-20230126-p5cflz
Chalmers’ new economic blueprint
John Kehoe Economics editor
Jan 27, 2023
– 10.30pm
Treasurer Jim
Chalmers has unveiled a grand vision to revamp the nation’s long-standing
market-based economic model, attacking “neoliberalism” and urging business to
co-invest with government to deliver “values-based
capitalism”.
Dr Chalmers
criticised the free market economic ideology pursued by political conservatives
and the “negative form of supply-side economics” prescribed by traditional
economic institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and World
Bank.
In a seminal
6000-word essay entitled “Capitalism after the
Crises” due to be published by The Monthly on Monday, Dr Chalmers said
markets were a positive and powerful tool, but had been poorly designed.
The philosophical
assessment comes just weeks after the Albanese government’s intervention in the
gas market to cap wholesale prices and the extension of multi-employer
bargaining in workplaces.
It is in
stark contrast to the economic approach of the successful Hawke-Keating Labor
government, and provides a framework for the government’s thinking in a year
when important decisions on budget spending and stage three tax cuts are
expected.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/chalmers-new-economic-model-means-more-market-intervention-20230127-p5cfzf
Chalmers’ new economic model means more market intervention
Treasurer Jim
Chalmers has pivoted from previous governments in his philosophy on the best
economic model for Australia’s future.
John Kehoe Economics editor
Jan 27, 2023
– 10.30pm
Treasurer Jim
Chalmers has laid bare his philosophy to build a new economic model for
Australia under the Albanese government.
Decoded,
government will play a more active role in the economy, while co-opting
business to help fund and implement Labor’s clean energy and progressive social
agendas.
The policy
details are so far vague beyond election commitments, but the direction of
travel is made clear in his 6000-word essay for the progressive The Monthly
magazine, “Capitalism after the Crises”.
Chalmers’
world economic view is borne out of perceived perpetual crises during his
career in politics – the 2008 global financial meltdown, COVID-19 and now the
energy and inflation shock.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/capitalism-after-the-crises-20230126-p5cfni
My vision for a new values-based capitalism
Jim Chalmers Federal
treasurer
Jan 27, 2023
– 10.30pm
In late
October, just before the Albanese government’s first budget, a journalist I’ve
known for two decades messaged me a quote from one of the earliest Greek
philosophers, Heraclitus: “No man ever steps in the same river twice. For it’s
not the same river, and he’s not the same man.”
She knew I
had worked on or responded to sixteen budgets in
government and opposition, but she also knew delivering a first would be
something much more new than familiar. Experience would matter, but hers was a
neat reminder not to assume that what had worked in the past would necessarily
work in the present.
“We make our
own new way across the river – rock-hopping and wading through the peril and
polycrisis of 2023,” writes Jim Chalmers, who penned his essay at his home in
Logan over the break.
Heraclitus’s
words are especially salient and resonant for these times, and for that budget.
As we put it together, the global economy was beginning a third crisis in 15
years, one which will play out more substantially in 2023.
This latest
crisis, of global inflation, has already begun to force the bluntest and
fastest interest rate increases since the inflation-targeting era began, and
this could cause recession in some of the economies that matter most to us.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/jim-chalmers-playing-the-long-game-with-intricate-makeover-of-financial-food-chain/news-story/604fe3c8ffdcb16e4761d33fb11da30c
Jim Chalmers playing the long game with intricate makeover of financial
food chain
Tom Dusevic
10:30PM
January 27, 2023
Jim Chalmers
believes in the genius of the market, but not so much that he’ll cede the
levers of power to the caprice of supply, demand and the animal spirits of
capitalism.
Eight months after
Anthony Albanese won an election off a third of the popular vote and a
safety-first, minimalist platform, Labor’s approach to governing is becoming
clearer and riskier.
Intervention
is back, as nations confront the “polycrisis” of rampant inflation, Covid-19,
social dislocation, food shortages, climate change and war in Ukraine.
Globalisation is disintegrating and the openness to trade and investment that
has been the bedrock of higher living standards for decades is under strain.
Here, the
Albanese government is empowering trade unions, boosting social welfare,
reviving industry policy, putting clamps on gas producers, and using regulation
and taxpayer funds to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
Undoing the
premium growth engine, which is not without its faults, may even be reckless
given our inheritance. Yet Labor appears determined to break with the past.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/money/banking/paltry-offerings-for-consumer-savings-rates-deserves-regulatory-scrutiny-20230120-p5ce8p.html
Paltry offerings for consumer savings rates deserves regulatory scrutiny
Clancy Yeates
Banking
reporter
January 28,
2023 — 11.54pm
The
competition watchdog will put bank deposit interest rates under the microscope
this year, after paltry rises in many savings account interest rates since
the Reserve Bank began lifting rates last May.
So far,
details of the probe are scant. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said earlier this month
that he had flagged the issue with the Australian Competition and Consumer
Commission (ACCC), but there are no public terms of reference yet.
Even so, the
inquiry is welcome. Savings interest rates generally receive much less public
scrutiny than home loans, which are a regular target of such inquiries. Perhaps
because savings rates tend to fly under the radar, they have also been highly
lucrative for the big four in the past year, by helping to boost margins.
By shining
its light on savings accounts, the regulator might pressure the banks to
explain why some deposit rate rises have been so minimal, and with luck, it
might also raise awareness about how people can get a better return on their
cash in the bank.
-----
Health Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/floods-pandemics-upend-normal-disease-patterns-20230118-p5cdga
Australia faces an era of unprecedented disease threat
Jill Margo Health
editor
Jan 20, 2023
– 10.00am
As Australia
comes out of the emergency
phase of COVID-19, it is facing new health threats.
Established
patterns of some viral respiratory diseases have been disrupted, new bacterial
threats are causing concern and widespread flooding has public health experts
worried about the Japanese encephalitis virus.
They are
worried because stagnant water provides a good breeding ground for the
mosquitoes that carry this virus and can then transport it around the country.
No one knows
if the various infectious diseases will settle into their old seasonal
patterns, so they can be better anticipated and managed.
Take the
respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which can have a serious impact on infants,
young children and people over 65. In older adults, it can cause pneumonia and
worsen lung disease and heart failure.
-----
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/anthony-albanese-says-outdated-medicare-needs-urgent-shake-up/news-story/fd3d49b2ab7f0e136cbd0df058f01673
Anthony Albanese says outdated Medicare needs ‘urgent shake up’
Medicare
has become an outdated system that needs an urgent fix, Prime Minister Anthony
Albanese says.
Ellen
Ransley
January 23,
2023 - 10:26AM
Medicare will
undergo its most significant overhaul since its inception, opening up primary
care delivery to nurses and pharmacists.
Prime
Minister Anthony Albanese said the Medicare system his government had inherited
was “struggling to keep up”.
Bulk billing
rates plummeted by seven per cent in the past year, and are continuing to fall
as general practice surgeries are left with no choice but to charge higher fees
to supplement Medicare rebates.
In addition,
patients are struggling to get timely appointments with their GPs, with waiting
times blowing out to more than a month for some doctors, due to a slimmer
workforce and exploding demand.
Mr Albanese
said too many people were turning up to emergency departments because they
couldn’t get access to a GP.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nurses-pharmacists-held-back-by-red-tape-turf-wars-health-minister-20230123-p5cepk.html
Nurses, pharmacists held back by red tape, turf wars: health minister
By Natassia Chrysanthos
January 23,
2023 — 3.59pm
Key points
·
The health minister has flagged the government
is considering a wraparound model of care that enhances the role of all
healthcare professionals.
·
His comments were welcomed by nurses and the
allied health sector.
·
But the college of GPs said it was concerned
such changes could fragment the health system and leave patients worse off.
Health
Minister Mark Butler says too much red tape and too many turf wars are limiting
nurses, pharmacists and other allied health professionals from stepping in to
fix a Medicare system under strain from rising costs and demands.
As the federal
government pursues an overhaul of Medicare, Butler warned “more of the same is
not going to cut it” and flagged the government was considering a wraparound
model of care that enhanced the role of all healthcare professionals.
His comments
were welcomed by nurses and the allied health sector – which includes
optometrists, physiotherapists and dieticians – which called for a team-based
approach to healthcare and said their members were willing to step up.
But the
college of GPs said it was concerned such changes could fragment the health
system and leave patients worse off.
-----
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/falling-rate-of-bulk-billing-sparks-urgent-call-for-overhaul-of-medicare-20230127-p5cfxq.html
Falling rate of bulk-billing sparks urgent call for overhaul of Medicare
By Anthony Galloway
January 29,
2023 — 5.00am
One-fifth of
Australians report that their GP has stopped bulk-billing and more than half
say they go to a doctor who charges them out-of-pocket expenses, amid mounting
pressure from the medical industry on the federal government to raise the
Medicare rebate.
More than
three-quarters of Australians support increasing the rebate to encourage more
GPs to offer bulk-billing, out-polling both increased hospital funding and
out-of-hours clinics as a way to fix the crisis.
The exclusive
findings in the Resolve Political Monitor comes ahead of a national cabinet
meeting on Friday where state leaders will ask Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
to reform Medicare.
NSW Premier
Dominic Perrottet and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews have united to pressure
the federal government to improve access to GPs, including by changing
Medicare schedule rebates that have failed to keep up with inflation
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/science/the-gift-of-life-straight-from-the-heart/news-story/f2147bf687c587f7ae70892910976ba5
The gift of life … straight from the heart
By NATASHA
ROBINSON
Updated
7:29AM January 28, 2023, First published at 10:00PM January 27, 2023
Alexandra
Moroianu was not sure she would make it.
In the
cardiac ward of a Perth hospital waiting for a donor heart, adrenaline fed
through her veins from a drip was the only thing keeping her alive as her
failing heart struggled to pump blood.
“I was very
grey, I was so pale that I was see-through,” Ms Moroianu says.
“My heart was
so enlarged, it would shake my body with every pump.”
Although
doctors did not know why their young patient’s heart was failing, they knew she
would not survive long without a transplant. She was placed on the waiting
list, but in Western Australia hearts are donated only about once every four or
five weeks, and not all donated hearts are suitable. The east coast was too far
away for a donor heart to be transported and survive.
Deprived of
oxygen, the precious organs deteriorate fast – within four to five hours – and
it’s a race against time. Three out of four donor hearts nationally
are currently discarded.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/medicare-reform-is-overdue-and-must-be-handled-with-great-care/news-story/6b98bd8326976237ef696fb64e24a4f4
Medicare reform is overdue and must be handled with great care
Updated
4:13PM January 28, 2023, First published at 12:00AM January 28, 2023
Medicare’s
status as a national insurance scheme that stands as a bulwark against inequality
and guarantees universal access to healthcare has long been cemented in the
national psyche. Labor has sought to capitalise on its status as the party
synonymous with the birth of the cherished national scheme at every
opportunity, especially since the May election.
While Bill
Shorten’s failed 2016 and 2019 election pitches relied heavily on a “Mediscare”
campaign that railed against Liberal cuts, Anthony Albanese’s Labor put more
meat on the policy bone at last year’s poll and promised to “strengthen” the
national health insurance scheme and usher in a “21st century Medicare”.
Now federal
Health Minister Mark Butler finds himself at the pointy end of that promise,
with a monumental and highly complex policy task ahead of him as it becomes
clear Medicare needs far more than just strengthening, with bulk billing rates
plummeting and primary care facing an enormous looming workforce shortage.
A report of
the Strengthening Medicare taskforce convened by Labor immediately after the
election and made up of peak medical and consumer groups, public servants and
health economists is soon to be publicly released amid consensus across the
sector that the 40-year-old fee-for-service rebate model of funding primary
healthcare must be overhauled.
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/pressure-mounts-on-germany-over-tanks-for-ukraine-20230122-p5cei6
Pressure mounts on Germany over tanks for Ukraine
Andrew
McCathie
Updated Jan
22, 2023 – 2.47pm, first published at 2.38pm
Berlin |
German is under renewed international pressure after it left open a decision on
dispatching its Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, which Kyiv sees as vital
to a new military offensive against a regrouping Russia.
Berlin and
its Western allies failed to agree on supplying the tanks at a meeting of the
50-member Ukraine Contact Group on Friday (Saturday AEDT). The impasse is
testing the unity of the pro-Ukraine alliance and threatens to leave Germany
isolated on the international stage.
Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed to Germany and its allies for a
speedy decision on the highly mobile Leopard tanks.
However,
Berlin has veto power over any decision to export the tanks and Chancellor Olaf
Scholz’s government has appeared reluctant so far to authorise that for fear of
provoking Russia.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/berlin-must-send-tanks-20230122-p5cek7
Berlin must
send tanks
Germany is hiding behind its history to shirk its responsibilities to the
present.
Jan 22, 2023
– 6.51pm
Australia has
made invaluable contributions to Ukraine’s war effort in prized Bushmaster
vehicles and the training of soldiers. The West’s resolve to support Ukraine,
and the flow of weapons, is stronger than ever.
The
bottleneck is Berlin’s
permission to send the Ukrainians some of the Leopard main battle tanks
Germany has sold in large numbers to other European allies. The Scholz
government fears this will “provoke” Vladimir Putin, as if that’s possible any
more.
The British
are sending some of their few Challenger 2 tanks to give Berlin
some political cover, but it has not worked. Instead, Putin will be comforted
that even after Ukraine has humiliated his armies, some European capitals are
still too afraid to confront him.
During the
Cold War, Western powers stuck their necks out to keep West Berlin free against
all manner of threats, allowing Germany to eventually reunite around its old
capital. Is Berlin really going to now shirk a difficult choice that would help
preserve the freedom of others?
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/pacific/meet-chris-hipkins-new-zealand-s-accidental-pm-20230122-p5cekn
Meet Chris Hipkins, New Zealand’s accidental PM
Ben McKay
Jan 22, 2023
– 3.42pm
Pragmatist.
Hard worker. Political warrior. Party man.
Ask Chris
Hipkins’ colleagues what they think of the new New Zealand
prime minister, and the same responses come up.
Labour
through-and-through. Can make and take a joke. Diligent, talented and
dependable. A details man.
Ask them if
they thought he’d be prime minister, and the answer is also the same: never.
In his 15
years in parliament, Labour has elected five leaders. Hipkins was never a
candidate or even mentioned as such, until Jacinda Ardern’s shock resignation
this week.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/negotiated-peace-better-than-endless-carnage-in-ukraine/news-story/09030cd75211c8b8244ab665ae4403b6
Negotiated ‘peace’ better than endless carnage in Ukraine
Adam Creighton
Updated
7:21AM January 23, 2023, First published at 12:00AM January 23, 2023
General Mark
Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, delivered an uncomfortable
assessment last week of Ukraine’s chances of ejecting Russia: slim to zero.
“From a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year it would be
very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of
Ukraine … That doesn’t mean it can’t happen; doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but
it’d be very, very difficult,” he said, adding the war “is likely to end in a
negotiation”.
Milley was
attacked for his supposedly defeatist attitude by the usual foreign policy
grandees, but as the 12-month mark of the war looms, after tens of thousands of
deaths on both sides, a reality check is more than welcome.
For almost a
year we’ve read how Vladimir Putin is on the verge of death and Russia,
enfeebled by Western sanctions, is about to collapse. None of this has
happened, for all the billions spent and lives lost, and there’s precious
little evidence it will.
The more
likely, however unappealing, scenario is that Russia gets to keep the territory
it controls, regardless of how long the conflict goes on.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/a-look-inside-the-leopard-2-tanks-that-matter-so-much-to-ukraine-20230124-p5ceym
A look inside the Leopard 2 tanks that matter so much to Ukraine
Experts
say just 100 of the German-made battle tanks would make a key difference in the
country’s war with Russia. Here’s four reasons why they are so important.
Jamey Keaten
and Frank Jordans
Jan 24, 2023
– 8.55am
Geneva |
Following intense pressure from its allies, Germany appears to be
inching toward approving deliveries of high-tech Leopard 2 main battle
tanks that Ukraine and its biggest Western backers hope will boost Kyiv’s fight
against Russian invaders.
Over the
weekend, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Berlin would not get in
the way if Poland – arguably Ukraine’s most vocal supporter among European
Union neighbours – wanted to ship Leopard 2 tanks from its arsenal across the
border into Ukraine. And Germany is not ruling out supplying such tanks to
Ukraine itself, cautioning however that the implications of such a
step need to be carefully weighed.
Here’s a look
at what those tanks might mean for Ukraine’s defence against Russian forces –
and hopes for driving them out.
What is the
Leopard 2?
Germany’s
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the manufacturer of the Leopard 2, touts it as “the
world’s leading battle tank” that for nearly a half-century has combined
aspects of firepower, protection, speed and manoeuvrability, making it
adaptable to many types of combat situations.
The 55-tonne
tank has a crew of four and a range of about 500 kilometres, and top speeds of
about 68 kilometres per hour. Now with four main variants, its earliest version
first came into service in 1979. Its main weapon is a 120mm smooth bore gun,
and it has a fully digital fire-control system.
-----
https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/fashion-and-style/crisis-what-crisis-luxury-boom-shows-staying-power-of-ultra-rich-20230124-p5cez9
Crisis, what crisis? Luxury boom shows staying power of ultra-rich
For the
world’s richest, their money – and their lifestyles – really do seem to reflect
a new Gilded Era. I can’t help but wonder when, and how, it will all end.
Rana Foroohar
Contributor
Jan 24, 2023
– 9.38am
We may be
heading for a global recession, but there’s one group of people who can’t seem
to stop spending – the world’s richest.
While retail
sales in general have been falling, and the stock
market was down by 20 per cent last year, spending on luxury goods and
experiences actually grew by roughly the same amount in 2022, as wealthy
individuals unleashed their animal spirits.
The data,
which comes from a new Bain & Company study of the luxury market,
challenges much of our conventional wisdom about luxury spending and the rich
in general.
For starters,
last year’s boom in the €1.38 trillion ($2.1 trillion) market was driven almost
entirely by Gen Z and Y, who dominated the personal goods market (including
luxury clothing, bags, jewellery, etc). “The spending of Gen Z and even the
younger Generation Alpha is set to grow three times faster than other
generations through 2030,” according to Bain. So much for youthful worries
about the materialism of their predecessors.
Further
confounding our assumptions, this luxe boom wasn’t fuelled by China, which was still
in lockdown for much of last year, but by the US, which led the market. And
within America, it was New York that doubled down on its status as the luxury
capital of the world.
-----
Gates says Putin’s war has destroyed world’s sustainability goals
Campbell Kwan Breaking
news reporter
Jan 23, 2023
– 4.23pm
Climate
change crusader Bill Gates says the Russia-Ukraine
war has all but guaranteed the United Nations’ 2030 sustainable development
goals will not be met. Those 17 goals, which Australia adopted in 2015, include
ending poverty and ensuring access to low-cost sustainable energy globally.
Speaking at
the Lowy Institute on Monday, Mr Gates said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had
distracted the world’s attention from issues such as poverty and climate
change, and countries were funnelling money and governance into war efforts
instead of those goals.
“The
countries involved will miss ... every one of those goals,” he said.
Mr Gates
warned that efforts should now be focused on limiting warming to 2.5 degrees,
saying the world could no
longer cut warming to less than 1.5 degrees.
He said the
effects of global warming had yet to match diseases such as malaria, which
kills 400,000 children annually, but it could soon be as dangerous if left
unchecked.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/japan-s-kishida-prioritises-arms-buildup-lifting-birthrate-20230123-p5cev5
Kishida prioritises arms buildup, lifting birthrate
Mari
Yamaguchi
Jan 23, 2023
– 5.54pm
Tokyo | Prime
Minister Fumio Kishida said on Monday that Japan faced the severest security
environment in the region since the end of World War II, and pledged to push a
military buildup under a newly adopted security strategy over the next five
years.
He said he
would also tackle the country’s rapidly declining births so it could sustain
national strength.
Mr Kishida’s
government in December adopted
key security and defence reforms, including a counterstrike capability that
makes a break from the country’s exclusively self-defence-only, postwar
principle. Japan says the current deployment of missile interceptors is
insufficient to defend it from rapid weapons advancement in China and North
Korea.
In his speech
opening this year’s parliamentary session, Mr Kishida said active diplomacy
should be prioritised, but that it required “defence power to back it up”. He
said Japan’s new security strategy was based on a realistic simulation “as we
face the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World
War II and a question if we can protect the people’s lives in an emergency”.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-software-giant-warning-ukraine-where-russia-plans-to-strike-20230122-p5cejx.html
The software giant warning Ukraine where Russia plans to strike
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
January 24,
2023 — 5.00am
They call
them “hunters”. An international network of cyber sleuths, reporting to a US
headquarters, study their systems maps day and night, searching for signs of
new Russian attacks on Ukraine’s networks.
Often,
Russian cyber targeting of a facility is prelude to a missile strike, so it’s a
matter of urgency to let the Ukrainian authorities know what the hunters are
seeing.
For instance,
on February 28, a media company in Kyiv was hit with a disabling Russian
cyberattack. The day after, a Russian missile
slammed into a TV transmission tower.
“We were able
to successfully give Ukraine enough insight so they could continue to message
their people [through TV broadcasts despite the assault],” says a person with
overview of the program. “They’ve proved immeasurably helpful to Ukraine.”
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-china-s-reopening-will-shake-up-the-global-economy-20230123-p5cenx.html
How China’s reopening will shake up the global economy
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior
business columnist
January 23,
2023 — 11.56am
There are a
lot of conflicting views about the outlook for the global economy this year,
and a lot of conflicting developments to complicate that outlook.
It does
appear that the outcomes are likely to be better than once feared. Only a few
months ago it appeared the world was on the brink of a deep recession.
Now, with China’s economic
reopening, Europe’s success (with the help of a milder than usual winter)
in blunting the worst of an energy crisis, the apparent peaking of inflation
rates in the developed economies and a substantial depreciation of the US
dollar, the outlook is somewhat less threatening.
That doesn’t
mean that there won’t be recessions in key economies but the prospect of a
“soft” or “softish” landing remains alive.
The biggest
development has been China’s abrupt dropping of
its harsh “zero COVID” policies, which had depressed China’s economic
activity over the past three years and produced rolling disruption of global
supply chains.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-passive-investing-makes-less-sense-in-the-current-environment-20230125-p5cf9h
Why passive investing makes less sense in the current environment
This is an
investment world in which greater selectivity, smart structuring and dynamic
asset allocation trump more often the lower fees on passive vehicles.
Mohamed El-Erian
Global financial commentator
Jan 25, 2023
– 8.16am
Should the
vehicles that investors choose to place their money be a function of the
investing environment? This question is not asked often enough by investment
committees, which tend to focus on asset allocation issues, model portfolios
and manager selection.
Yet it is a
question that has become a lot more important for generating high risk-adjusted
returns, particularly given the massive shift of money from active to passive
investment strategies in recent years.
A simplified
illustration of why this is the case comes from my student days. Armed with a
Eurail-type pass, I travelled the European continent and, like many others,
took advantage of the fixed menu offered by restaurants.
They were
diversified, low-priced and did not require much local knowledge to choose from
a long list of dishes. In short, it was a good way to fill my stomach and keep
expenses down.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/germany-confirms-it-will-send-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine-20230126-p5cfjo
Tank battalions headed for Ukraine, as US and Germany finally commit
Hans van Leeuwen
Europe correspondent
Updated Jan
26, 2023 – 6.05am, first published at 3.36am
London |
Washington and Berlin will send almost 50 tanks to Ukraine, ending weeks of
dither and debate, as the Kremlin vowed make them “burn”.
President Joe
Biden said the US would send a 31-strong battalion of its M1 Abrams tanks,
worth $US400 million ($564 million), to Ukraine. He described them as “the most
capable tanks in the world”, though also “extremely complex to operate and
maintain”.
That came
after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz committed 14 Leopard 2A6 tanks, having all
along stuck to his line that he would do so only if the US made a pledge of its
own.
Mr Scholz
also signalled that Germany would allow other countries to ship their own
German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/us-and-german-tanks-will-be-sent-to-ukraine-after-scholz-uturn/news-story/679be7d3f76e05796cf11fbc5ee3d30e
Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz pledges help set up ‘tank coalition’ for Ukraine
By Oliver
Moody and Alistair Dawber
The Times
10:52PM
January 25, 2023
Germany and
the US are getting ready to supply Ukraine with advanced Western battle tanks,
paving the way for their allies to follow suit and deliver a potentially
decisive boost to Kyiv’s self-defence.
On Tuesday
night, local time, American officials indicated the Biden administration was
ready to give the Ukrainians 30 M1 Abrams main battle tanks, after months
of stonewalling their appeals for the armour.
Then on
Wednesday morning, also local time, Germany yielded to sustained international
pressure and confirmed it would send a company of 14 Leopard 2A6 tanks.
Importantly,
Berlin also granted approval for other European countries to send tanks from
their own stocks to Ukraine. “The aim is to quickly assemble two tank
battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine,” government spokesman Steffen
Hebestreit said.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/things-may-be-better-but-they-are-far-from-good-20230126-p5cfo9
Things may be better, but they are far from good
Business
is feeling more cheerful about the year ahead, but many unresolved global
challenges remain.
Martin Wolf Columnist
Jan 26, 2023
– 12.26pm
One always
learns something from the World Economic Forum. At the very least, one learns
what rich and powerful people think is happening. They may be wrong: indeed,
they often are. The world is, as we have recently been reminded, full of
surprises. But here are my reactions.
The business
people are feeling more cheerful. Yes, they are still suffering from the
legacies of COVID-19, the inflationary post-pandemic reopening and Russia’s
assault on Ukraine.
They are
still threatened by the hostility between the US and China. But the news has
been more positive: Ukraine has been doing better in its fight for survival;
the lunatics fared worse than expected in the US midterm elections; gas prices
have tumbled; headline inflation may have peaked; recession worries have
lifted; and China has reopened.
With that
background, let us consider some of the more important topics, starting with
the economic outlook.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/russia-unleashes-fury-after-ukraine-secures-tanks-20230127-p5cfut
Russia unleashes fury after Ukraine secures tanks
Tom Balmforth
and Ivan Lyubysh-Kirdey
Jan 27, 2023
– 9.38am
Kyiv |
Ukrainian civilians raced for cover on Thursday (Friday AEDT) as Russia fired a
barrage of missiles and drones across the country, killing at least 11 people,
according to officials, a day after Kyiv won Western
pledges of battlefield tanks to combat Moscow’s invasion.
The German
and American announcements that they would send dozens of tanks infuriated
Russia, which in the past has responded to apparent Ukrainian successes with
massed air strikes that left millions without light, heat or water.
The
Kremlin said the promised delivery of Western tanks was evidence of growing
“direct involvement” of the United States and Europe in the 11-month-old war,
something both deny.
Ukraine said
it had shot down all 24 drones sent overnight by Russia, including 15 around
the capital, and 47 of 55 Russian missiles – some fired from Tu-95 strategic
bombers in the Russian Arctic.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dystopian-future-the-brave-new-world-according-to-the-world-s-economic-elite-20230125-p5cf9u.html
Dystopian future: The brave new world according to the world’s economic
elite
By Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard
January 26,
2023 — 7.15pm
Data
technology is accelerating from a polka to a lightning-fast tarantella.
Algorithms will start to “help” and then displace doctors over the next decade
because they are statistically better at diagnosis. Nurses will last longer,
indispensable for care and the human touch. This will slash health care costs.
Routine
journalism will be usurped by ChatGPT and its ilk, the talk of the World
Economic Forum 2023 (WEF) in Davos. It can already write passable news articles
at a fraction of a reporter’s salary. Before long, it will compete with
commentators, and I will retire to our goat farm in France. (chèvres
poitevines, if you were wondering). Whether they realise it yet or not, TV news
anchors are replaceable too. I learnt that it is already possible to create
what looks like human beings talking on screen.
Artificial
intelligence (AI) is taking over our lives even faster than I realised.
Breakthroughs have happened over the past five years that are suddenly
unleashing volcanic social change. “We have the emergence of a completely new
set of technology, which I think is going to be revolutionary. AI is just at
the beginning of the S-curve,” said Microsoft’s Satya Nadella. “The internet
maybe took 30 years to spread around the world, maybe the cloud and mobile took
15 years, and now I think we’re talking months,” he said.
He
predicts that the latest tech will be a powerful “deflationary force”. If you
think that the internet, the cloud, and digital commerce, were behind the great
disinflation from 1990 to 2020, be prepared for the next tidal wave.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/ancient-egyptian-treasures-hailed-as-biggest-find-for-years/news-story/cd7798febe8651701b72d07db1022f62
Ancient Egyptian treasures hailed as biggest find for years
By Magdy
Samaan
The Times
11:00AM
January 27, 2023
Statues of
Egyptian priests, officials and servants and an exceptionally well-preserved
sarcophagus dating from 4300 years ago have been uncovered in an ancient
necropolis near the Nile, in one of the largest such discoveries of recent
years.
Zahi Hawass,
an archaeologist and former Egyptian minister of antiquities, announced the
findings on Thursday from the excavated tombs of the Gisr el-Mudir necropolis
in Saqqara, southwest of Cairo, one of the earliest known stone-built
structures in the world.
The tombs
date back to the Fifth and Sixth dynasties of the Old Kingdom, before 2300BC –
about 1000 years before the birth of Tutankhamun.
Hawass, 75,
said the most important discovery was a tomb decorated with scenes of daily
life, belonging to a man named Khnumdjedef, who was an inspector of officials,
a supervisor of the nobles and a priest in the pyramid complex of Unas – the
last king of the Fifth Dynasty, who ruled from 2375 to 2350BC.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-west-will-rue-its-protectionism-20230126-p5cfln
The West will rue its protectionism
Elite
guilt about globalisation is handing an intellectual victory to the zero-sum
world of populists and dictators.
Janan Ganesh Contributor
Jan 27, 2023
– 11.32am
Germany’s
taste for Russian gas over recent decades was a double tragedy. It gave the
Kremlin leverage over Europe. But it also gave protectionists throughout the
Western world a spurious credibility. Look what happens, they say, when
strategic industries are open to trade.
The first of
these tragedies is fixable: there are substitutes for Russian fossil fuels. The
second is here to stay. Within a year of the attack on Ukraine, the US Congress
has passed a king’s ransom of domestic industrial aid and a piqued Europe is
shaping its own version.
The goal has
widened: from punishing Russian violence to slowing China’s ascent.
So has the key industry: from gas to chips and green tech. Over time, lots of
sectors will turn out to be “strategic”. Why not agriculture? Why not the
professional services that China will need to master to go from middle to high
income?
The West will
rue this protectionist turn. Its hard-won cohesion over the past year is
already yielding to mistrust, not just between the US and EU, but within the
EU, where trading nations with small domestic markets (Sweden) dread the
protectionism of big states (France).
----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/as-us-hits-its-debt-ceiling-apainful-reckoning-looms/news-story/7a226a2032877d5650c460a0ab8dc6e6
As US hits its debt ceiling, a painful reckoning looms
America is
addicted to borrowing; as debt soars past $US trillion, the world watches in
dread.
By ADAM CREIGHTON
From Inquirer
January 28,
2023
The Abbott
government sensibly dumped the federal government’s debt ceiling in 2013, but
the US hasn’t been so fortunate.
Every year or
so an artificial, archaic borrowing limit — currently set at US$31.4 trillion —
ensures a risky standoff between a Democrat-controlled White House and a congress
where Republicans control at least one chamber.
Such
showdowns almost pushed the US, whose creditworthiness underpins the global
financial system, to default in 2011 and then again in 2013, when
small-government, “Tea Party” Republicans demanded the Obama administration cut
spending and reduce the debt.
Whatever the
details of the agreements, the debt ceiling did nothing to stop a US
government, of both political stripes, that’s been addicted to borrowing.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/review/putins-terrifying-reign-makes-for-compelling-reading/news-story/57b62bba971e1804317c31d1f9ffd6d1
On losing face, psychopath Putin ‘may push the button’
For anyone
who continues to give the Russian tyrant the slightest benefit of doubt, this
explosive account of his decades-long reign of terror is required reading.
By Paul Monk
From Review
January 28,
2023
Vladimir
Putin is a dark character, straight out of a novel by Dostoevsky. His whole
coterie of kleptocrats and thugs and neo-fascists come across as though they
were the realisation in actuality of Dostoevsky’s Notes From Underground or The
Possessed. The question hanging in the balance, as we fly into 2023, is what
could possibly be an appropriate punishment for the carnage and destruction he
has inflicted on Ukraine?
John Sweeney,
a veteran war correspondent and prolific author, has written a new book, from
the front lines in Ukraine, about Putin and his crimes. For anyone who
continues to give the Russian tyrant the slightest benefit of doubt, this book
is required reading. In personalised and highly accessible prose, Sweeney steps
through the nature of Putin’s war, his life and rise to power, his staggering
corruption and his many brutal crimes.
What are
Sweeney’s credentials? He is a writer and journalist who worked for the BBC for
years, until his hammering of Putin made some of his bosses uncomfortable –
given the amount of Russian money in the City of London and the demonstrated
willingness of Putin to have critics assassinated, even on British soil. He has
written scathing books for years about brutal dictators from North Korea to
Zimbabwe and from Romania to Russia.
He is
scathing but very good at what he does. He has, in a career spanning many
decades, won an Emmy Award, two Royal Television Society Awards, a Sony Gold
Award, a What the Papers Say Journalist of the Year Award, an Amnesty
International Award and a Paul Foot Award. In other words, he is credible and
well-established.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/state-of-emergency-declared-in-auckland-after-torrential-rains-flash-floods-20230127-p5cg3y.html
‘Wettest on record’: Torrential rains, flash floods claim lives in
Auckland
By Sam
McKeith
Updated January
28, 2023 — 5.04pmfirst published January 27, 2023 — 10.41pm
Residents of
Auckland are bracing for more storms this weekend, after an unprecedented storm
on Friday night killed at least three people, caused widespread floods, shut
airports and also forced organisers to cancel a concert by Elton John.
One man was
found dead in a flooded culvert, another in a car park, New Zealand media
outlet Stuff reported. Another person died after a landslide hit a house in
Remuera, an inner suburb of Auckland. A search was under way on Saturday for
another man believed swept away, police said.
A state of
emergency remained in place in the city of about1.6 million people on New
Zealand’s North Island as the rains eased on Saturday after causing flooding in
the north, north-west and west.
Auckland
Mayor Wayne Brown made the state of emergency declaration on Friday due to the
extent of the “damage, displacement and disruption” caused by the weather and
the need for response agencies to draw on more powers.
-----
David.
