I Have The Feeling We Are Being Misled About Our Future With Vaccinations And Other Health Measures By Some Of Our Pollies.

I have spent the usual morning this Sunday with the TV on in the background with Insiders (Guest Greg Hunt) and the press conferences from Qld., Victoria and NSW.

I have to say I am getting the very distinct feeling that all the confidence in the freedom we will see from 80+% vaccination may be rather illusory, and also worryingly that at least NSW and the Feds are not being all that straight with us. I became more and more annoyed at all this as the morning passed!

In the UK they have a vaccination rate of 88.9% for the first dose and 74% of second dose as of yesterday

Even with that they are still seeing 180,000 cases a week, 600+ deaths a week and 5000+ admissions a week.

Here is the link:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Worryingly we are seeing a beginning uptick in death rates again after the relative total unlocking 3-4 weeks ago – although we know social distancing and mask wearing have by no means been abandoned by many. So many are still both cautious and careful.

Note: None of this suggests that the vaccines have not dramatically improved the hospitalisation and death rates – they are a lot lower but simply not even near eliminated.

What this tells us – with a population a little less than ½ - if we remove most regulated restriction and just let the delta variant run a few months from now, even with great vaccination rates, we could see a pretty dramatic rise in cases, admissions and deaths from where we are now. The vaccines are effective but not perfect!

Despite the confidence of the politicians, and while they may be prepared to tolerate say 50 deaths a week and say 1000 admissions a week and more than that will see pretty massive pressure for change I suspect.

On that basis I can’t see a sustained opening without really effective treatments – which we don’t yet have – as well as pretty much total population vaccinations, six month booster vaccines and some limited continuing restrictions.

Gladys just warbling on about freedoms etc. looks to me like a huge con! I see the future in NSW being rather like where we are until Nov-Dec and then gradual very slow incremental wind back of controls in the first 2-3 months of 2022 watching carefully what is happening. In short the vaccines are wonderful but not a miracle and have been oversold.

The bottom line in NSW is clear. Unless there is major change in what is being done, along with vaccination NSW could well see in the New Year in lockdown - ugh!

All of this above utterly assumes there is not a lambda variant – or some such – which is not just far worse or clever enough the evade the vaccine or both! If this happens clearly all bets are off.

I really do wonder just what actual advice the chief health officers are providing in private. I suspect it would be way more cautious than what the pollies are telling us! The original virus was a problem, the delta was worse and the next may be just awful.

I guess the question is just how much reality we all want after 18 months of this? I understand the need to preserve morale but how far should they all go and how frank should they really be?

Views are welcome but I for one am feeling rather ‘mushroomed’! The future is way more murky that Gladys and Greg are telling us!

David.

P.S. Now back to Digital Health and the wonders of what goes on there!

D.