Others Are Noticing That Australia’s National Security Is On The Slide!

This appeared last week:

The Telegram

Australia prepares for a lonelier, harsher world

The country has long relied on America for security and China for its prosperity. Those two pillars are wobbling

Feb 18th 2025

AUSTRALIANS HAVE felt lucky but anxious since the first colonists waded ashore, over two centuries ago. An edge of insecurity endured even as Australia became prosperous, safe and envied: a liberal democracy with a resource-rich continent to itself, guarded by a deep blue moat on the bottom of the world. Today, Australian fears are acute, for two pillars supporting its modern rise—its defence alliance with America and its trade with China—are wobbling. For all that, after a week Down Under talking to business, political and national-security bigwigs, The Telegram has a hunch that Australian angst gives the country a head start.

Today, every ally of America has cause to be alarmed by President Donald Trump. These are scary times for countries that trade with China, too. In many industries, selling to China is becoming harder, for its growth is slowing, and its leaders are bent on achieving greater self-reliance. At the same time, China’s rulers are determined to dominate important export markets, and ready to use their economic might to bully any country that stands in the way. It now looks oddly lucky that Australia has been brooding over its reliance on America and China for some time, while many Western powers, notably in Europe, slumbered complacently.

A fine history of Australian foreign policy by the late Allan Gyngell, a diplomat and intelligence analyst, is bluntly called “Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the world since 1942”. It describes the shock felt when Britain, the imperial mother country, quit Asia and became a midsize European power. Australia duly sought a security alliance with America, crafting Washington-friendly arguments about why it is a partner that pulls its weight. In the 1960s, Gyngell relates, political leaders who sent Australian troops to Vietnam to fight alongside American forces talked of paying the premium on an “insurance policy”.

A half-century later, Trump-pleasing lines are being polished in Canberra, the quiet country town that serves as national capital. Australia recently made a $500m contribution to support America’s submarine-building industry. That was a down-payment on AUKUS, a scheme binding together America, Australia and Britain in an alliance to counter and deter Chinese naval power in the Indo-Pacific for decades to come. Agreed with the Biden administration, the plan is slated to cost up to $228bn over its lifetime. It calls for Australia and Britain to jointly design and build advanced nuclear-powered submarines, for delivery to Australia in the early 2040s. As an interim step, Australia is to buy a fleet of American-made submarines. It is also spending billions of dollars upgrading a naval base near the western city of Perth, offering American and British submarines stealthy access to the Indian Ocean.

With Mr Trump in the White House, there is talk in Canberra of “a period of triage”. Officials must assess urgent risks, such as Mr Trump’s willingness to slap tariffs on allies. In early contacts, Australian leaders have reminded Mr Trump and his team that the trade balance between their countries has run in America’s favour since the Truman era. Then comes the longer-term puzzle of what the Trump administration might actually want from Australia when it comes to confronting China. A right-of-centre member of parliament reports conversations with Republicans in Washington, who told him that America “will need guarantees from us” that any American submarines sold to Australia will be made available in the event of a US-led fight with China over Taiwan. Against that, officials must weigh comments from Mr Trump and some of his aides, sounding scornful about Taiwan’s chances of surviving a Chinese attack. The words of Mr Trump’s defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, are parsed like those of a prophet. Mr Hegseth told his Australian counterpart that Mr Trump is “supportive” of AUKUS. But work on the American submarines sought by Australia is behind schedule. When asked if the first would be ready for sale to Australia, Mr Hegseth replied only: “We sure hope so.”

In a week-long straw poll, a majority of well-placed Australians admit to doubts that AUKUS will happen as planned. Several venture that America will want to use the submarine base near Perth, at least. Even if Mr Trump declines to defend Taiwan, it is suggested, America will surely have an abiding interest in countering Chinese hegemony in the sea lanes of the Indo-Pacific. For now Australia is pitching itself to the Trump administration as a force multiplier. If allies jointly help America rebuild its defence-industrial base, the West can compete with China’s advantages of scale.

If your biggest market turns hostile

That submarine base sits within view of gleaming corporate skyscrapers in Perth, built with vast sums earned sending ships to China laden with iron ore, coal, wool, food and other commodities. Even so, the risks of economic dependency are acknowledged. Memories are fresh of economic boycotts used to punish a previous Australian government for challenging China over its handling of the covid-19 pandemic and other issues. Chinese demand for iron ore could fall by 40% in the next 30 years, as urbanisation slows and China recycles more steel, says Huw McKay of Australian National University. A politician briefed by the security services talks of “constant” Chinese espionage and cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure.

In Canberra, plans are afoot. Ties with Japan, India and other China-sceptical neighbours are deepening. There is little hope of rallying South-East Asian governments, for they prefer to accommodate China. For its part, Australia will pick its battles with China, calling out egregious Chinese actions, but discreetly. There is talk of deterring China while engaging economically. The West’s aim should be to make war too costly, and peace too valuable.

Australia has reasons to be anxious. At least it is thinking about survival in a lonelier world. Time for other countries to catch up.

Here is the link:

https://www.economist.com/international/2025/02/18/australia-prepares-for-a-lonelier-harsher-world

I find it hard to disagree with a word of this analysis – especially as a Chinese Naval Task Group sails down our east coast!

I suspect the protection of our geographic isolation is fading and, as a nation, we are going to need to start spending a GREAT deal more a defense while working a good deal harder on our trustworthy alliances. (Of which I am not sure I see the US as one anymore – time will tell).

I suspect we are in the most dangerous period since WWII and we are going to need to think very carefully about how we go over the next 10-15 years.

How do you think Australia should play the next 2 decades, other than working hard to grow our adult population, military and economy?

David.