April 4, 2019 Edition.
-----
Trump has had a wonderful week or two from his perspective with the pressure on him from the Democrats being somewhat reduced and no obvious political issues threatening to derail the 2020 election. However there seems to be a looming recession in the US and that would be bad news for Trump!
Brexit has gone utterly pear-shaped and we have no idea what happens next.
By the time you read this we will know what happened with the Budget and the big news was huge tax cuts and no one was really impressed! ScoMo looking more and more desperate!
-----
Major Issues.
Short bets on banks point to slump
- 12:00AM March 23, 2019
Sliding house prices and faltering economic conditions have sparked a resurgence in the “widow maker” bet, as fund managers pour millions into short positions against the major banks and regional lenders.
A flood of money betting on a housing implosion has coincided with a warning from global ratings agency Moody’s that tumbling apartment and house prices will push more borrowers into default.
Bank shares have already been hammered through the royal commission over the past year, but international fund managers expect stock prices to fall further.
Over the past three months, the slice of bank shares that are held short has risen by an average 50 basis points. Short selling is the practice of investors selling borrowed shares in the hope of buying the stock back later at a lower price to make a profit.
-----
'The mortgage belt has had a belting'
Mar 24, 2019 — 1.35pm
Vendors are discounting to sell in Australia's premium mortgage belts as tight bank credit and buyer expectations of further falls to come curb the once-booming residential market.
The national preliminary auction clearance rate of 56 per cent for the week to Saturday – in line with last week's equivalent figure of 56.1 per cent – is likely to be revised down as the results of more auctions are collated, but still show a weak market struggling to recover.
"The finalised clearance rates have sat above 49 per cent for five of the last six weeks and it’s likely that this week will be no different," data provider CoreLogic said on Sunday.
Labor may force RBA to raise rates says McKibbin
Mar 25, 2019 — 12.15am
Washington | The US Fed's about-face on the direction of interest rates will have the Reserve Bank of Australia "scratching their heads" as it weighs rate cuts to counter the wealth drag from the housing market against the inflationary impulse of a likely Labor government, said Warwick McKibbin.
The former Reserve Bank board member and member of the Brookings Institution in Washington, where The Australian Financial Review interviewed him late last week, warns Labor's big spending plans, and wages and carbon policies could put policymakers in a tricky position.
"If you think about what the Reserve Bank thinks, they're looking ahead one or two years," he said.
"And if you look at what the Labor Party platform is for wages and spending and if you think they're going to adopt some of these Green New Deal ideas, as well as put in place a really tight carbon constraint, that is both slowing growth and raising inflation."
-----
The 737 Max was created in a frantic rush to outdo a rival
David Gelles, Natalie Kitroeff and Jack Nicas and Rebecca Ruiz
Mar 25, 2019 — 7.35am
New York | Boeing faced an unthinkable defection in the spring of 2011. American Airlines, an exclusive Boeing customer for more than a decade, was ready to place an order for hundreds of new, fuel-efficient jets from the world's other major aircraft manufacturer, Airbus.
The chief executive of American called Boeing's leader, James McNerney, to say a deal was close. If Boeing wanted the business, it would need to move aggressively, the airline executive, Gerard Arpey, told McNerney.
To win over American, Boeing ditched the idea of developing a new passenger plane, which would take a decade. Instead, it decided to update its workhorse 737, promising the plane would be done in six years.
-----
Pension bill falling as super grows, Treasury’s MARIA modelling shows
- 12:00AM March 25, 2019
Federal cabinet ministers have deliberated on confidential new Treasury modelling of the nation’s reliance on the Age Pension, which shows the amount of money spent on retirees will fall faster than previously expected, amid calls to dump the planned increase in the superannuation guarantee to 12 per cent.
The Australian can reveal the results of Treasury’s new modelling system, known as MARIA (Model of Australian Retirement Incomes and Assets), outlining the “adequacy and equity” of retirement incomes, has been provided to cabinet on several occasions in recent months, according to Freedom of Information requests.
The Treasury has been developing its MARIA model since 2017 in a generational overhaul of its systems, which provide long-term projections of Age Pension expenditure and take-up, superannuation savings, and the level of retirement incomes.
-----
How to fix the retirement mess
- March 25, 2019
I have a modest proposal for solving the mess that is Australia’s retirement system, as exposed by the royal commission into misconduct in banking, financial services and superannuation.
It is, if I do say so myself, both brilliantly simple and blindingly obvious: the government should sell increases in the old age pension.
It would be a form of government-guaranteed annuity, without the risk or fees of private operators, and it would be a way to turn the current superannuation lottery into more of a defined benefit scheme, although not entirely of course.
It would solve longevity risk, since the old-age pension is for life, and also solve the problem of the financial advice industry, which remains deeply conflicted after Kenneth Hayne decide not to recommend the structural separation of advice and wealth products. Let me explain my reasoning.
-----
After NSW, we're left with Hobson's choice for PM
By Tony Walker
March 25, 2019 — 12.00am
Now that Gladys Berejiklian – described by Malcolm Turnbull as a "real liberal" – has been returned to power, the question becomes: what are the implications nationally of the Liberal Party’s solid performance in NSW?
This election result provides a curate’s egg snapshot for the Coalition, good in parts, shocking in others.
Battle will now be joined federally between a Coalition leader who is having trouble gaining traction in the broader community and a Labor leader who is widely disliked. This is a Hobson’s Choice, in other words a choice between unappealing alternatives.
-----
Australian 10-year bond yield falls to record low level
Mar 25, 2019 — 12.36pm
Fears of a sharp slowdown in global growth have sent Australia's 10-year bond yield to a record low level of 1.76 per cent.
The previous record low was set in 2016, when inflation expectations were sinking and oil producers were waging a price war.
Then, Donald Trump was elected US president unleashing expectations of a spending boom, and a strong labour force enabled the Fed to raise interest rates a further eight times since.
Financial markets are convinced the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the US Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates in response.
-----
'Australia the can't-do country': a view from abroad
Rather than tackling climate change, Australia seems intent on becoming the most nannyish nation on Earth.
Matthew Engel
Mar 21, 2019 — 11.00pm
The great Australian cliches: G’day; fair dinkum; dinki-di; fair go; no worries; good on yer; she’ll be right; mateship; whingeing Poms; the lucky country. Only one of these has been known to cause its progenitor any grief. The late Donald Horne’s book The Lucky Country was published in 1964 and became an Australian phenomenon, described by one critic as “a bucket of cold saltwater emptied on to the belly of a dreaming sunbather”.
“Dad was very happy that the phrase caught on,” said Dr Julia Horne, associate professor of social history at the University of Sydney. “But if he was watching TV and saw it being used without irony he would stick his thumbs in his ears and waggle his fingers at the set. A wine started using the name and he couldn’t bear it.
“Much of the luck came from the postwar mineral boom. His point was the luck of the boom would run out. He believed that Australians were forward-thinking but that their politicians and businessmen were stunted creatively and imaginatively.”
-----
Bond markets warn investors winter is coming
Mar 25, 2019 — 3.44pm
The bond market is flashing a warning signal that investors ignore at their own peril.
Just after midnight on Friday evening, the gap between 10-year and three-month rates in the US turned negative. The spread fell as far as -3 basis points (or 0.03 percentage points) before bouncing around on either side of zero in the ensuing hours. By Asian trade on Monday morning it was negative again, if only marginally.
At issue is that in a normal environment, long yields are supposed to be higher than short-term rates, reflecting that the monetary authorities will manage the cycle so that the economy continues to grow with the attendant reasonable levels of inflation. Bond investors also require a little bit extra yield to compensate for the risks of lending over such a long period.
"Yield curve inversion" have been the scariest three words in investment markets for some time. The flattening of the US bond yield curve over the past year or so has been seen as a worry, but analysts and investors were generally ready to brush it off.
-----
Super admin fees may rise 40pc
- 12:00AM March 26, 2019
Savers in union-and-employer-backed industry superannuation funds could be hit with administration flat fee increases of 40 per cent a year following government reforms stopping the use of low-balance accounts and young worker nest eggs to cross-subsidise other members.
An analysis of official statistics and super fund product disclosure statements reveals that without implementing cost-cutting programs to bring down administration expenses, the average fee across the 20 largest industry super funds would need to rise from $75 to $112 per member to make up for the forgone fee revenue, which has been estimated at $225 million across these funds each year.
The Morrison government last month secured passage of laws that will impose a 3 per cent cap from July on administration fees on low-balance super accounts with less than $6000 in savings, which is expected to save Australians $570m in the first year.
-----
AGL claims are manna for Morrison government
Mar 26, 2019 — 12.00am
Much to its understandable agitation, AGL has been named as the most likely source of price manipulation in the post-Hazelwood power market in an academic study whose conclusions will doubtless buttress federal government plans to underwrite new entrants to the national energy market.
A study of life in power markets after the abrupt and unanticipated closure of Victoria’s ageing brown-coal fired monster in 2016 has gone so far as to estimate that pricing behaviours led by AGL added $3.47 billion to annual payment from the national spot market to the coal generators.
To a degree, the analysis prepared by academic and consultant Bruce Mountain affirms with a little more pointed specificity what we already knew to be the case. That is, power prices surged in the wake of Engie’s disgracefully abrupt decision to shut Hazelwood.
-----
The ATO is gobbling up income growth: RBA
Matthew Cranston
Mar 26, 2019 — 9.03am
A crackdown on tax deductions and better technology from the Australian Tax Office is contributing to slower income growth and slower consumption, the Reserve Bank of Australia says.
Speaking at the Housing Industry Association on Tuesday morning RBA assistant governor Luci Ellis said , slower wages growth was less of a concern than slowing income growth.
The RBA has been wrestling with a discrepancy between a booming employment market and weaker consumption.
-----
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/labor-to-hasten-slowly-on-new-living-wage-20190325-p5176t
Labor to hasten slowly on new living wage
Mar 26, 2019 — 12.01am
Labor will deliver the first living wage as soon as July 1 next year, but the full conversion from the current minimum wage will be phased in over a longer period, taking into account the capacity of business to pay and any effects on the economy.
Labor leader Bill Shorten has also assured that the plan to convert the minimum wage into a higher living wage will not automatically flow into higher award wages.
Only those receiving the minimum wage will be paid the living wage whereas award wages will be determined separately by the annual wage review process. If necessary, Labor will legislate to ensure this.
-----
'He was in it right up to his neck': How Scott Morrison deposed a prime minister
By Peter Hartcher
March 26, 2019
When a reporter asked Scott Morrison if he had ambitions for Malcolm Turnbull's job at a joint press conference, he responded by throwing a friendly arm around his prime minister's shoulder.
"This is my leader and I'm ambitious for him!" he declared exuberantly.
That was on August 22, 2018. Two days later, Turnbull was gone. Morrison had taken his place.
-----
PM's economic woes increase risk of pork-barrelling
March 26, 2019 — 12.00am
As voters brace for a federal election amid gathering economic gloom, their concerns are shifting from healthcare to cost-of-living pressures and household financial stress, fuelled by stagnant real (after inflation) wages and declining property prices. Disquiet about immigration has also increased, following the linking by the government and some commentators of recent intake levels to growing pains (particularly traffic congestion in Sydney and Melbourne), hospital waiting times and crime.
That might sound like more good news for a struggling Coalition minority government savouring the tonic of NSW Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s historic triumph; it’s seen as a better protector of borders, people are less inclined to replace administrations at times of heightened domestic and global economic risk and uncertainty, and the Liberal Party tends to be seen as the superior economic manager, although the Hawke and Keating governments restored credibility after the socially and culturally celebrated but economically chaotic Whitlam government.
-----
Right now, the Coalition has a tiny opportunity to fix superannuation
By Peter Martin
The Coalition is running out of time to do worthwhile things. Facing overwhelming odds of defeat in the election due within weeks, one of its last throws of the dice should be to do something Labor would never do, but which is urgently needed and would set us on the right course for the future.
It would also cause some trouble for Labor along the way.
It is to launch a full-blown inquiry into the superannuation system Labor has lumbered us with.
It’s urgent because compulsory super contributions are scheduled to climb from the current 9.5 per cent of salary to 12 per cent, beginning with an increase of 0.5 per cent in July 2021, followed by an extra 0.5 per cent in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025.
-----
Pumped hydro to triple electricity storage
The 20 pumped hydro projects in the works will triple the nation's electricity storage capacity, research from the Australian National University suggests.
Rebecca Gredley
Australian Associated PressMarch 25, 20192:21pm
There are enough pumped hydro projects being planned across Australia to triple the nation's electricity storage capacity, research has revealed.
There are 20 projects in five states at various stages, with some in initial assessment phases while others are being constructed.
Australian National University researcher Jamie Pittock says this will dramatically change the electricity grid for a number of reasons.
-----
One Nation sought US pro-gun money: report
Al Jazeera reports One Nation asked powerful US lobby groups, including the NRA, for millions of dollars in funding, in a bid to weaken Australian gun laws.
Marnie Banger
Australian Associated Press March 26, 201911:23am
Scott Morrison is deeply concerned by reports Pauline Nation's One Nation asked powerful US lobby groups for $US20 million ($A28m) in funding, in part to help it roll back gun control in Australia.
The prime minister has stressed Australia's gun laws are not being weakened, after the claims emerged through an undercover investigation.
"Australia's gun laws are world's best thanks to (former Prime Minister) John Howard & we will not be changing them," he posted on Twitter.
-----
Systemic risks are hidden in super: Murray
Mar 26, 2019 — 11.33am
A lack of transparency about what assets superannuation funds hold on behalf of their members could pose systemic risks if pension inflows slow or are reversed.
That is the stark warning of David Murray the former Commonwealth Bank chief executive and current chairman of wealth manager AMP, who also led a review into the financial system in 2014.
“We have to increase the transparency of our superannuation system -ultimately, in the interest of the members themselves,” Mr Murray said in a keynote address at The Australian Financial Review's Banking & Wealth Summit.
-----
What we know so far about the federal budget
Both sides of politics will be falling over themselves to promise handouts in next week’s pre-election budget. Here’s what’s been announced so far.
Marnie Banger
AAP March 26, 20194:17pm
Scott Morrison has hinted the government could ramp up tax relief for Australians in next week’s federal budget.
That comes as healthcare is shaping up as a key economic battleground for the looming federal election, with both major parties arguing they are the best placed to fund essential services.
Speculation is mounting that Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s first budget, to be handed down next Tuesday, will bring forward income tax cuts that have already been legislated as well as improve tax offsets for low-income earners.
-----
'He sold everything he believed in’: The price Turnbull paid to become prime minister
By Peter Hartcher
March 27, 2019
Malcolm Turnbull was ready to be sworn in as prime minister. He had beaten Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership and now he needed to make the 10-minute drive to see the Governor-General. But he'd hit a snag.
It was called the Nationals. Without their country cousins and Coalition partner, the Liberals didn't have a majority in the House of Representatives. They couldn't form government.
The Nats were driving a hard bargain. Turnbull was resisting. And parliamentary question time was looming.
-----
Australian intelligence agency declassifies information in cyber terror fight
By Fergus Hunter
March 27, 2019 — 12.05am
Australia's electronic intelligence agency has mounted secretive cyber operations against Islamic State, attacking the terrorist group's propaganda machine and working with military forces to shut down enemy communications during a battle in the Middle East.
The director-general of the Australian Signals Directorate, Mike Burgess, has revealed details of the offensive cyber operations for the first time, declassifying an unprecedented volume of information in a bid to recruit new personnel for the expanding agency.
In a speech to the Lowy Institute on Wednesday, Mr Burgess is expected to canvass the ways ASD attacks enemy targets — a role that was only confirmed publicly in 2016. He will say this work has been critical to Australia's efforts against Islamic State, which no longer controls any territory in its "caliphate" across Iraq and Syria.
-----
Every one knows something is broken but no one knows how to fix it
By Chris Uhlmann
March 27, 2019 — 12.00am
When Kevin Rudd was prime minister he sometimes held doorstops outside St John’s Anglican Church in Canberra.
Steeped in the language and traditions of Christianity he was also given to wrapping his arguments in moral garments. So to quarrel with Rudd risked being marked as both rhetorically and ethically bankrupt.
Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd shares his political insights with a youth branch of the Labor Party in Queensland on Saturday.
-----
Beware the ATO's crackdown on home office claims
Mar 28, 2019 — 9.34am
Popular home offices will be a prime target for the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) this year amid fears taxpayers are overhyping their expenses and understating income.
Tax officials will also be closely monitoring tax agents to investigate concerns that taxpayers are shopping around for those most amenable to more deductions and bigger claims.
"The ATO will be continuing its focus on incorrectly claimed deductions as well as under reporting income,” an ATO spokesman says.
-----
This is what's really going on with Australian coal exports
Updated Mar 28, 2019 — 9.44am, first published at 9.29am
Shanghai | The mixed messages around China's appetite for Australian coal has rattled Canberra, wiped billions of dollars off mining stocks and raised some uncomfortable questions about our economic dependency on China's slowing economy.
Imports are clearly falling as China ramps up environmental checks, and holds up shipments at some ports by up to 45 days. Beijing has denied reports of a complete ban in the country's north-east, but restrictions in place since January will have long-term implications for one of Australia's top two export commodities.
Many of China's coal traders are convinced Beijing's restrictions on Australian coal are politically motivated. But the governments of both countries, miners and diplomats on the ground in China say this is incorrect.
-----
What was the point of the Turnbull government?
By Peter Hartcher
March 28, 2019
When Scott Morrison stood up in the Parliament and brandished a lump of coal at the Labor members like a carbonaceous crucifix, the outraged response was not limited to the opposition benches.
It was the subject of a spirited disagreement at the next meeting of the Turnbull government's inner sanctum, the cabinet.
Participants in the meeting, in February 2017, recalled that Christopher Pyne, the leader of the government in the House, complained about Morrison's stunt.
Although Pyne today denies any such thing happened, five other ministers present at the meeting recalled it clearly. Pyne rebuked Morrison by saying "that wasn't a very popular move in my electorate", or words similar. And "nobody likes coal".
-----
Bathing in NSW's reflected glory won't do, PM, you need a makeover
By John Hewson
March 28, 2019 — 12.00am
There is a conspicuous asymmetry in the Morrison government’s response to recent election results. When it took an electoral drubbing, as in the Longman and Wentworth byelections, and in the Victorian state election, there were apparently no lessons to be had. But when Gladys Berejiklian managed to retain government in NSW, despite the anti-federal government sentiment, there was ebullience, and claims to be re-energised as the Libs in Canberra attempted to bathe in reflected glory.
Apparently, losses could be ignored, or rationalised, or forgotten, while her win was a boost to their confidence. They now hope the Turnbull leadership debacle is mostly behind them, and that a reset in the April 2 budget, together with a focused attack on Bill Shorten, will at least make them competitive in a May election. Rose-coloured glasses, or an emerging reality?
The government holds 73 seats, the Opposition 69. The Coalition must actually win at least three seats to retain majority government. However, recent polls put it well behind in all states, suggesting an overall loss of some 14 seats, and emphasise a particularly poor standing in regional Australia, where minor parties and independents are recording significant protest votes.
-----
'Murderous risks': All of a sudden, the 'R' word is back on our lips
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
March 28, 2019 — 10.23am
The benefit of Donald Trump's $US1 trillion ($1.4 trillion) fiscal stimulus is fading before China comes close to touching bottom. We have hit a global vacuum.
If semiconductor sales are the canary in the coal mine for the world economy, be careful. Korean shipments fell 25 per cent in February year on year. "That canary has completely keeled over - collapse comes to mind," says Lakshman Achuthan from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
Ruslan Bikbov, from Citigroup, says the US yield curve [an indicator for investor sentiment on where the economy is heading] - is "already priced for recession". Should the US economy tip over at this juncture, the tail risks for the world are murderous.
-----
Australian bond yields at fresh record low
Mar 28, 2019 — 7.00pm
Australian 10-year bond yields have hit a fresh record low of 1.73 per cent, and half a percentage point of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank is now fully priced in by the futures market, which sees the cash rate at 1 per cent in August 2020.
A global rally in bonds, which saw US Treasuries and German bunds advance on Wednesday, has swept up Australian bonds too, building on the momentum triggered by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision on Wednesday to shift to an easing bias.
The NZ and Australian 10-year yields are now level, although the RBNZ cash rate is higher at 1.75 per cent.
-----
Dutton's patient, careful game as part of Turnbull's inner circle
By Peter Hartcher
March 29, 2019
When Malcolm Turnbull told Tony Abbott that there was no way he would ever allow him into his cabinet, it didn't go down well.
"Fair enough," replied Abbott in their meeting in the Australian Club in Sydney after the 2016 election, specially brokered by a mutual friend to try to find a peace settlement between them. "You do your thing and I'll do mine," said Abbott. "And you have a lot more to lose than I do."
He set about destroying the leader of his party.
The prime minister had again tried to interest him in a diplomatic posting, but there was only one job Abbott would accept.
-----
Barometer of fear: Manic bond investors send a chilling signal
By Stephen Bartholomeusz
March 28, 2019 — 4.10pm
If any indication was needed to highlight the extent to which the global markets and economic environment have changed over the past six months, it came in the form of a German government bond issue on Wednesday.
The Germans issued €2.4 billion ($3.8 billion) of 10-year bonds with an interest rate of minus 0.05 per cent. They could have issued more. The issue was over-subscribed 2 .6 times, meaning they could have raised €6.3 billion, or about $10 billion.
Earlier in the week Bloomberg, which has an index that tracks negative-yielding debt, said the amount of global bonds with negative yields had just topped $US10 trillion ($14 trillion).
-----
Greens’ plan to save world would ‘destroy’ Australia
- 12:00AM March 29, 2019
The Greens, accused by Scott Morrison of posing a “real serious danger to Australia”, will today reveal plans to reduce military spending to bolster the foreign aid budget, fight climate change and promote gender equity.
Under pressure from the Prime Minister and Coalition MPs over its radical social, security and environmental agenda, Greens leader Richard Di Natale will today launch the party’s policy on “peace and demilitarisation”.
Ahead of a speech today at the Development Policy Institute in Canberra, Senator Di Natale launched an attack on the major parties, accusing them of turning Australia into “one of the world’s largest arms dealers”.
The Greens extreme plan would see Australia junk the US alliance, with Senator Di Natale arguing it should be renegotiated in the age of Donald Trump.
-----
Property prices still falling but not as fast
- By Mackenzie Scott
- 12:00AM March 29, 2019
Housing price falls around the country are starting to ease but the effect of tighter bank lending has begun to seep into previously resilient markets, preliminary monthly data from researcher CoreLogic has shown.
Figures for the first 28 days of March show housing prices in the country’s five largest capitals are down 0.8 per cent.
The final monthly release is due on Monday.
The result is still in the red for most cities, but the monthly pace of the declines has slowed after the worst point in December, when capital city prices dropped 1.3 per cent for the month.
-----
World Meteorological Organisation says climate events hit 62 million people worldwide
- March 29, 2019
The World Meteorological Organisation has set the tone for a UN-backed Climate Action Summit this year with a new report which details rising temperatures and higher impacts from climate change.
The September summit called by UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, is designed to put pressure on world leaders to lift their ambition to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
Secretary General Guterres said the latest WMO report was “an indispensable contribution to global efforts to avert irreversible climate disruption”.
-----
Why the cult of Pauline won't be enough for One Nation this time
By Margo Kingston
March 30, 2019 — 12.00am
Can Pauline Hanson pull off a Trump? Her pitch: Don’t believe your eyes and ears. Believe me instead because the media is the enemy of the people and there’s a conspiracy against poor me. Trump says, “I am your voice!” Hanson says, “I am the last political voice that is here for this country."
So, will Hanson keep her base at the May federal election, or even, as some believe, grow it after she denies truth and plays victim?
For mine, Hanson made a killer mistake having James Ashby and Steve Dickson flank her on Thursday when she read a statement they clearly wrote direct from the Trump playbook, and the NRA playbook. Deny, deny deny. Offence, offence offence.
Weasels win from cycle of vengeance
By Peter Hartcher
March 30, 2019 — 12.00am
When the Labor party destroyed two of its own prime ministers, made itself an object of ridicule and handed power to its nemesis, Tony Abbott, what did the Liberal Party do?
Did it conclude that this was a terrible way for a political party to behave? Not at all. It decided that it was a brilliant idea. It adopted Labor's tortured five years as an inspiring role model.
In the century to 2010, three Australian prime ministers were deposed by their own parties, as Rod Tiffen has pointed out. In the years since, the two parties combined have given Australia six prime ministers, including Kevin Rudd twice. It was astonishing to watch and debilitating for the nation to experience.
-----
Conservatives’ conundrum — time to split the difference
- 12:00AM March 30, 2019
The results in regional NSW at last weekend’s state election, coupled with the rise and rise of right-wing minor parties — namely One Nation — in the upper house highlights a conundrum facing the Coalition. How does it balance competing demands, different values and priorities, between the city and the regions?
We also saw the dilemma from another perspective this week as, bizarrely, Scott Morrison repeatedly refused to commit to preferencing One Nation last, despite its leader, Pauline Hanson, having described Islam as a “disease” and despite revelations her chief of staff had travelled to the US to seek political donations from the gun lobby with the apparent intent of weakening Australia’s gun laws.
Eventually the Prime Minister relented, declaring One Nation would be put after Labor, but Nationals made no such commitment. So much for his repeated protestations that such a decision was a matter for the party organisation, always a vacuous argument given he intervened in preselections when it suited him. So much for all the previous refusals to make such a promise because he wanted to see which candidates One Nation selected first.
-----
Why the bond market is wrong
- 12:00AM March 30, 2019
The bond market is flying at the moment, so much so that last week the yield curve inverted, both in Australia and the US. That is, the 10-year bond yield fell below the 90-day bill rate. At 1.78 per cent, the Australian government bond yield has never been this low before.
What’s more the volume of global government bonds yielding less than zero has jumped back above $US10 trillion for the first time in a couple of years.
Yield curve inversion in the US usually precedes a recession by about 15 months on average. Sharemarkets had a wobble on Friday when the curve inverted, and then went, “Nah, she’ll be right”, and moved on.
Maybe the insouciance is justified, maybe not. We’ll find out in a year or so.
-----
Jail time and billions in fines under fast-tracked crackdown on social media giants
By Fergus Hunter and Jennifer Duke
March 30, 2019 — 12.05am
Social media executives face up to three years in prison and their companies could be hit with billions of dollars in fines under legislation to be introduced to Parliament next week, marking a dramatic and "world-leading" move by the Morrison government against the dissemination of extremist content online.
Unsatisfied with the response of digital giants to the Christchurch terrorist attack — which was livestreamed on Facebook and spread across the internet — Prime Minister Scott Morrison will on Saturday commit to the harsh penalties in a bid to force the companies to tackle the "weaponisation" of their platforms.
The legislation will create a criminal offence for platforms that fail to rapidly remove "abhorrent violent material". Executives found personally liable could be jailed for three years while the companies could be fined up to 10 per cent of their annual global turnover.
-----
Brace for nightmare before Christmas, banking giant warns investors
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
March 30, 2019 — 4.48pm
Citigroup has issued an explicit recession warning for the United States, advising clients to wind down exposure to risky assets and prepare to ride out the storm.
The bank's global investment team said the US Federal Reserve over-tightened monetary policy last year, waiting too long to stop raising interest rates or slow the pace of quantitative tightening [the unwinding of its massive bond portfolios to restrict the supply of money in the economy].
The economy is already shot below the waterline and will most likely succumb to the textbook pathologies of a fading expansion.
-----
Who will pay for the world's debt mountain? It's you, dear saver
By Satyajit Das
March 30, 2019 — 6.00pm
Today, around $US10 trillion ($14 trillion) of bonds are trading at negative yields, mainly in Europe and Japan.
In the next recession, US interest rates, too, may enter negative territory: Short-term rates are currently running around 2.5 per cent, and cuts of between 3 per cent and 5 per cent are commonly needed to restart economic activity.
In markets where rates are even lower or already negative, rates will need to go deeply into into the red.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/money/banking/consumers-desert-scandal-plagued-big-banks-20190327-p517zb.html
Consumers desert scandal-plagued big banks
By John Collett
March 31, 2019 — 12.00am
More consumers are seeking out alternatives for their hard-earned cash, switching to mutual banks, building societies and credit unions in the wake of damning evidence of misconduct at the big four banks and other for-profit financial institutions in the banking royal commission.
Industry superannuation funds are also big winners, as the fallout from the commission continues to take a toll on consumers' trust in major financial institutions and their retail products.
Although the returns of industry funds, as a group, have long outperformed bank-owned retail super funds, the commission has likely been a trigger for more consumers to switch funds.
Commissioner Kenneth Hayne found instances of retail super funds profiting at the expense of fund members, while industry funds came though the commission relatively unscathed.
-----
Power relief payment set for 3.9m Aussies
Almost four million Australians struggling with paying skyrocketing power bills will be given a cash handout in Tuesday’s Budget.
AAP
news.com.au March 31, 20198:55am
A quarter of Australia’s eligible voters can expect a one-off payment to help cover the cost of power bills in Tuesday’s federal Budget.
An Energy Assistance Payment — $75 for singles and $125 for couples — will be paid into the bank accounts of 3.9 million veterans, carers, single parents, aged pensioners and people receiving the disability support pension before July, News Corp reports.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said it would particularly support older people on the age pension.
He said the government understood cost-of-living pressures were a real challenge for many.
-----
Morrison Government announces $150m budget boost for female change rooms at cricket, football grounds
Annabel Hennessy The West Australian
Women’s sport will get a huge funding injection after the Federal Government pledged $150 million to build female change rooms at cricket and football grounds.
There are concerns that young girls have been put off playing sport after being forced to change in rooms that have urinals.
The new package, which is part of next week’s Budget, is the first time the Government has created dedicated funding for female change rooms.
-----
Royal Commissions And Similar.
Hayne commission leaves banks' wealth plans in disarray
By Clancy Yeates
March 25, 2019 — 12.00am
The royal commission has left big banks' scrambling to deal with the major challenges in wealth management, after forensic public scrutiny compounded an already difficult environment for wealth businesses.
Alongside Westpac's decision last week to reverse course and quit personal financial advice, selling to Viridian Advisory, its three big rivals face delays in trying to extract themselves from parts of wealth management.
Commonwealth Bank this month indefinitely suspended a plan to float its wealth and mortgage broking business, ANZ Bank's planned sale of its superannuation business to IOOF remains uncertain, and National Australia Bank's plan to float MLC was in February pushed back until 2020.
-----
Self managing your care package another option
By Rachel Lane
March 24, 2019 — 12.00am
Anyone who has tried to navigate home care for themselves or a loved one will tell you that it is a test of patience, resourcefulness and forensic accounting.
You need patience during the long waits for assessment and then for care to start; resourcefulness in finding services, volunteers and family members to fill in the gaps; and forensic accounting to determine whether or not you are getting bang for your buck.
Online platforms, such as Mable and Let's Get Care, connect individual care workers with people needing care in their local area.
The waiting time for all package levels, except the lowest, now exceeds 12 months.
-----
New Charter of Rights in aged care welcomed by dementia peak body
Tuesday 26 March 2019
Dementia Australia welcomes the Federal Government’s release of a strengthened Charter of Rights that is applicable to residential aged care services and home care providers.
Dementia Australia CEO Maree McCabe said the Charter would further empower the new Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission and promote being treated with dignity.
"We look forward to the implementation of the Charter, specifically in relation to the care of people living with dementia,” Ms McCabe said.
-----
Dementia Australia CEO Maree McCabe said the Charter would further empower the new Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission and promote being treated with dignity.
"We look forward to the implementation of the Charter, specifically in relation to the care of people living with dementia,” Ms McCabe said.
-----
Beware ASIC's litigate-first strategy
Mar 26, 2019 — 12.00am
Bankers and wealth managers attending the Australian Financial Review Banking & Wealth Summit in Sydney this week are walking straight into the lion’s den.
A total of six regulators will be either making keynote speeches or appearing on panels to explain the new era of regulation and enforcement. Rightly or wrongly, there is a perception in the financial services industry the regulators will measure their success by how many people they put in jail.
This perception may be divorced from reality but Opposition Leader and odds-on-favourite to be prime minister, Bill Shorten, wants corporate scalps. "If no one out of the banks goes to jail, if no one gets prosecuted or charged, I think Australians will say there's been a cover-up," Shorten said at a door stop on February 8.
-----
David Murray leads Hayne backlash
Mar 26, 2019 — 6.06pm
The head of the 2014 Financial Services Inquiry, David Murray, has warned that the economy is becoming more vulnerable to shocks, at the same time as industry super funds lock-up billions of retirement savings in unlisted and hard-to-sell assets.
Mr Murray says the lack of monetary and fiscal fire-power has reduced Australia's capacity to react to unforseen shocks while the $2.7 trillion superannuation sector - which was a source of stability in the financial crisis - might turn out to be a risk.
"Were we to have another shock to the Australian economy the starting point is just not the same as the global financial crisis," Mr Murray told told The Australian Financial Review's Banking & Wealth Summit on Tuesday.
-----
Stronger Aged Care Protections for Senior Australians
The Australian Government has released a new report detailing options for a Serious Incident Response Scheme for aged care, including findings that a broader range of incidents should be reported.
PDF printable version of Stronger Aged Care Protections for Senior Australians - PDF 22 KB
29 March 2019
The Morrison Government has released a new report detailing options for a Serious Incident Response Scheme for aged care, including findings that a broader range of incidents should be reported.
The report, Strengthening protections for older Australians - Development of models and options for a Serious Incident Response Scheme for Commonwealth-funded aged care service providers is available at the Department of Health's website. The report was prepared by KPMG.
Options canvassed of what should be considered a reportable incident include: physical, sexual or financial abuse; seriously inappropriate, improper, inhumane or cruel treatment, and neglect.
-----
29 March 2019
The Morrison Government has released a new report detailing options for a Serious Incident Response Scheme for aged care, including findings that a broader range of incidents should be reported.
The report, Strengthening protections for older Australians - Development of models and options for a Serious Incident Response Scheme for Commonwealth-funded aged care service providers is available at the Department of Health's website. The report was prepared by KPMG.
Options canvassed of what should be considered a reportable incident include: physical, sexual or financial abuse; seriously inappropriate, improper, inhumane or cruel treatment, and neglect.
-----
ASIC expects more referrals to prosecutors for wealth industry wrongdoing
By Clancy Yeates
March 28, 2019 — 6.46pm
The corporate watchdog is looking at about 20 matters where criminal offences may have been committed in the wealth management sector and expects to refer many of them to prosecutors.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), which has signalled a new hardline approach after coming under fire at the royal commission for being too lenient, said charges might be recommended against more than one person or entity in some of the matters.
In response to a question taken on notice at Senate estimates, ASIC said it had "approximately 20 matters within its expanded wealth management project scoped for investigation of criminal offences".
"We expect a large number of these matters will result in referrals to the [Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions]," ASIC said.
-----
National Budget Issues.
Government pledges new missile system as Labor boosts health and environment
By Nicole Hasham
March 25, 2019 — 12.00am
A re-elected Morrison government would spend $2.5 billion bolstering Australia’s capacity to intercept enemy aircraft through the purchase of a new short-range air defence system.
The government said the new missile launchers and radars would improve the protection of Australian Defence personnel and better guard Australia and its critical assets.
The measure was first flagged several years ago, and recently signed off by cabinet.
The system would focus on the interception of enemy aircraft, but would also be able to defend against helicopters, cruise missiles and unmanned aerial systems.
-----
Our budget malaise: the hardest questions go unanswered
By Jessica Irvine
March 28, 2019 — 12.00am
People often ask me: “Jess, why do you love budgets so much?”
To which I reply: “What’s not to love?”
Who doesn’t want to stand for an hour in a snaking queue of journalists, as we await our turn to voluntarily submit to a six-hour lock-up in a labyrinth of committee hearing rooms deep in the heart of Parliament House in Canberra?
Who doesn’t, upon entering, want to immediately test both their physical and mental strength by collecting a hefty swathe of budget documents laden with potential traps for young players such as confusing the “fiscal balance” with the “underlying cash balance”? (Hint: always refer to the latter.)
-----
Health Issues.
Consumers risk 'terrible deal' on health insurance if they switch now
By John Collett
March 24, 2019 — 12.00am
A federal government reform meant to help consumers more easily compare hospital health insurance policies is instead creating confusion for consumers.
The centrepiece of the health insurance reforms, announced by the government last year, is that funds must sort their hospital policies into categories of gold, silver, bronze and basic, so that consumers can more easily compare apples with apples.
Each tier specifies services and treatments that must be included. The higher the tier, the more categories it covers.
Some health funds have categorised their policies in time for April 1 this year, when funds increase their premiums. Others have transitioned some of their policies and will not have fully transitioned until the deadline of April 1, 2020.
-----
St Vincent's Health calls for an overhaul of the private system
Mar 25, 2019 — 12.00am
Key Points
- A PCI should review if the current powers of APRA are fit for purpose for a future health sector.
- A PCI should consider improving tranparency for consumers about information and out-of-pocket costs, and simplify in-hospital treatment billing.
- PHI participation has dropped to 44.6 per cent of the total population as of December 2018 compared with a peak of 47.4 per cent in 2015, according to UBS.
Hospital operator St Vincent’s Health Australia says patients should be told the full cost of all services upfront before they walk through a hospital door and has called for the prudential regulator to be given greater powers over private health insurers.
The call for sweeping reforms for the private health system that it says is at a "crossroads" is contained in its response to federal Labor's proposed Productivity Commission inquiry.
-----
Health groups push for food ratings to be mandatory
By Caitlin Fitzsimmons
March 24, 2019 — 12.00am
Consumer and public health groups are renewing their push to make the government’s Health Star Ratings mandatory to boost public confidence in the labelling system, but the food industry would strongly resist such a change.
The federal government is reviewing the Health Star Ratings, a scheme introduced in 2014 that provides an at-a-glance healthiness score on food packaging, based on the product’s nutrient profile.
The review, published in February, recommends keeping the system voluntary with a target for it to be on 70 per cent of relevant products by the end of 2023.
-----
Federal budget cash to put Melbourne at medicine's cutting edge
By Noel Towell
March 25, 2019 — 12.01am
A $30 million cash injection to Melbourne’s ground-breaking bio-medical research centre will keep the city at the global cutting edge of medical technology, according to Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
Next month’s federal budget will commit the money for a new building that the scientists and researchers at Aikenhead Centre for Medical Discovery at St Vincent’s Hospital have been dreaming about for more than a decade.
The new building will give the city Australia’s only facility where bio-medical research and development takes place in an actual hospital, with one leading medical researcher saying on Sunday: “This changes everything.”
-----
Private health insurance changes explained
Aside from an average increase of 3.25 per cent to health insurance premiums, a number of government reforms will come into effect on April 1.
Gemma Najem
Australian Associated Press March 25, 20196:00am
HOW WILL PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE CHANGE ON APRIL 1?
* Premium hike
Private health insurance premiums are set to rise by 3.25 per cent on average.
* New rating system
Four new tiers of hospital cover will be rolled out this year and become mandatory from April 1, 2020. All hospital insurance policies will be classified as Gold, Silver, Bronze or Basic. What is, and isn't, covered in each category will be based on new minimum standards. For example, if heart and vascular system is covered in the category then it must cover everything listed in that category.
Basic Plus, Bronze Plus and Silver Plus policies will cover at least one service more than what's offered in the normal categories. For example a Silver Plus policy could include cover for cataract surgery which would otherwise only be covered under a Gold policy. Each insurer will vary in what extra they include on the plus package.
-----
Mediscare campaign aimed at marginals
- 12:00AM March 25, 2019
Labor is positioning for a Mediscare 2.0 election campaign, vowing to unfreeze rebates on 100 GP items a year ahead of schedule as it kicks off a new marginal seats offensive over claimed Coalition “cuts” to health spending.
Bill Shorten will today announce Labor will remove the indexation freeze on key Medicare items, including mental health consultations, chronic disease management plans and urgent after-hours care, within 50 days if Labor wins the May election.
Labor first froze Medicare items in 2013 as a “temporary measure”. The freeze was extended by the Coalition in 2014 and again in 2016 by Scott Morrison as treasurer.
-----
NDIS risks collapse unless leaders avert 'market failure', providers say
By Kate Aubusson
March 26, 2019 — 12.00am
The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) risks collapse and more providers will be forced to stop offering services as the sector faces market failure, Australia’s peak disability services body has warned.
The National Disability Services (NDS) raised serious concerns on Tuesday over endemic flaws that could jeopardise the scheme, leaving half a million Australians without crucial disability services.
The NDS has been a staunch supporter of the NDIS from its inception. But a week before the federal budget, the group representing roughly 1000 non-government providers launched a media campaign urging the government to fix the scheme’s broken pricing model and cut its untenable red tape to head-off market failure.
-----
Doubts grow over private health insurance, survey reveals
- March 26, 2019
The number of Australians with private health insurance who agree it is essential to have the product has declined by 10 per cent over the last four years.
A survey by Roy Morgan has concluded that only 55.4 per cent of private health insurance fund members agree on the need to have the product, compared to 65 per cent at December 2014.
“The major declines in attitudes that we have seen among fund members relate to the fact that only around half now see it as being essential and an increase in the belief that it is difficult to understand what you are covered for,” said Norman Morris, industry communications director at Roy Morgan.
-----
Coalition defends health funding
- 12:00AM March 26, 2019
The Coalition will use a taxpayer-funded government website to counteract Labor claims of cuts to Medicare and public hospitals ahead of the election.
However, both sides of politics face calls for more primary care funding and will need to negotiate with the states before any public hospital deal is finalised.
After Labor announced a Shorten government would restore indexation to all Medicare items within 50 days, Health Minister Greg Hunt added “health funding facts” to the Health Department website.
-----
Millions of Australians plan to switch or downgrade health insurance ahead of April price hike
- March 27, 2019
Millions of Australians with private health insurance plan to switch to a cheaper policy or reduce their level of cover before the annual price hike next week.
A new YouGov Galaxy research study commissioned by comparison website iSelect has also revealed that almost one in 10 policy holders — one million Australians — plan to cancel their private health cover before April 1.
The average cost of private health insurance premiums will rise on Monday by an average of 3.25 per cent, which insurers have argued is the lowest annual increase in a decade.
-----
Let pharmacists adjust dosages, says health policy expert
But they must work under a GP-approved management plan that 'prioritises the doctor-patient relationship'
27th March 2019
Pharmacists should be allowed to adjust medication dosages and issue repeat scripts but only under a GP-approved management plan, a former health department secretary says.
The call follows the release of a Pharmacy Board of Australia discussion paper outlining three models for future pharmacist prescribing (see box below).
Professor Stephen Duckett says community pharmacists should be allowed to prescribe repeats of long-term medications for patients with stable conditions for up to 18 months.
And pharmacists could take on a role in adjusting dosages or altering medications, he says.
-----
https://www.australiandoctor.com.au/news/budget-leak-400-million-gp-practices-enrol-elderly-patients
Budget leak: $400 million for GP practices to enrol elderly patients
All eyes will be on Canberra next week as stage 2 of the Health Care Homes revolution appears to be upon us
28th March 2019
GP practices will apparently be offered $400 million over the next four years for “enrolling” elderly patients with chronic disease.
Sources have told Australian Doctor that the plan is part of the Federal Government's first move to expand the Health Care Homes trial and provide a mechanism for funding non-face-to-face GP care.
Based in part on a draft recommendation from the MBS Review Taskforce’s general practice and primary care committee, the plan would provide quarterly payments to practices based on the number of patients they enrolled over the age of 70 who had at least one chronic condition.
-----
Greg Hunt shelves plan for two-month scripts after pharmacist backlash
By Dana McCauley
March 28, 2019 — 7.55pm
A plan to deliver cheaper medicines to millions of Australians by doubling the number of tablets that can be dispensed in a single trip to the chemist has been scrapped by Health Minister Greg Hunt after lobbying by the powerful pharmacy guild.
The Pharmacy Guild of Australia this week declared war on the government over a measure expected to appear in Tuesday's budget to enable patients to collect two months of scripts in a single visit, doubling the number of pills they can take home each time they go to the chemist - for a single dispensing fee.
With an election just weeks away, Mr Hunt reversed his position after the guild took out a full-page advert in The Australian newspaper, warning against any budgetary measures that might disadvantage the 5723 community pharmacists whose interests it represents.
-----
Budget 2019: pharmacists protest Coalition plan
- 12:00AM March 29, 2019
People with chronic conditions would be trusted with larger quantities of prescription drugs under a proposal that has brought the Morrison government into dispute with the Pharmacy Guild.
Ahead of the budget and federal election, the guild has reacted angrily to an expert committee proposal to allow more medicine to be handed out with each script, depriving pharmacists of dispensing fees.
Guild president George Tambassis told members the government had been pressured to abandon “this destructive, unwarranted idea”.
“Profitability of many pharmacies would have been effectively halved, sending them to the wall, with mass loss of jobs and displacement of vital patient services,” Mr Tambassis said on Tuesday.
-----
Rural generalists to tackle ‘pernicious’ uneven GP spread
- 12:00AM March 28, 2019
More government funding will be directed towards training rural doctors to take an expanded role in the health system, after a taskforce warned Australia’s maldistribution of doctors was “persistent and pernicious”.
At the National Rural Health Conference yesterday, Regional Services Minister Bridget McKenzie announced $62.2 million in funding from next week’s budget had been set aside to fast-track the “rural generalist” pathway. It comes after health ministers earlier this month agreed to collaborate on a “national medical workforce strategy” to ensure the increasing number of domestic graduates help to address GP and specialist shortages.
Senator McKenzie said the government had already enhanced rural medical training, and restricted the use of overseas-trained GPs in metropolitan areas, but regarded rural generalists as “a key element of the future rural medical workforce”.
-----
Customers reviewing health insurance ahead of Monday's shake-up
Mar 29, 2019 — 10.48am
Key Points
- Gold/Silver/Bronze/Basic Tiers make it easier to undertand and to compare policies.
- Customers will be able choose a higher excess in exchange for lower overall premiums.
- Under 30s will get discounts of up to 10 per cent on hospital policies.
- Customers living in rural areas will get greater travel and accommodation benefits.
- Improved access to mental health treatment.
Customers are rushing to review their health cover ahead of reforms that kick in on Monday, says NIB Holdings managing director Mark Fitzgibbon, noting he has seen a spike in activity.
Private health insurance premiums will rise on Monday by an average 3.25 per cent – the lowest annual increase in a decade, say insurers.
-----
Mind the gap: Aussies delay elective surgery over gap costs
By Colin Kruger
March 31, 2019 — 12.05am
A tough economic environment for Australian consumers has produced a perversely beneficial tailwind for ASX-listed health insurers Medibank and NIB.
Last month, both companies confirmed a trend that is expected to continue indefinitely: cash-strapped health fund members have been delaying elective surgery.
NIB chief executive Mark Fitzgibbon did not have to look far to get a personal perspective of the phenomenon. A golfing buddy told Fitzgibbon how he had delayed hip-replacement surgery for three years due to the $6000 out-of-pocket expense that his orthopedic surgeon had quoted. (His friend was, of course, with a rival insurer.)
“I think there is a big macro element to that low level of utilisation at the moment because things are tough for people and people are worried about the future,” he told analysts and investors after the company’s half-yearly results last month.
-----
Breast implant illness: why good science needs to combat hysteria
By Kate Aubusson
March 31, 2019 — 12.00am
A lucrative industry is springing up around "breast implant illness", with some doctors charging women thousands to remove implants with no guarantee the surgery will make them better.
Social media is fuelling an explosion in the numbers of women scared their breast implants are making them sick and deciding to have them removed, with online support groups for breast implant illness (BII) numbering in the thousands and growing every day.
But there is no strong scientific evidence for whether breast implants are causing the clusters of unexplained and debilitating symptoms attributed to BII, two leading Australian plastic surgeons warn.
Breast Implant Illness (BII) is gaining notoriety as a catch-all for unexplained symptoms in women with breast implants.
-----
International Issues.
Britain reaches a fork in the Brexit road
Mar 24, 2019 — 11.41am
London | Up to a million people thronged the streets of central London in the early hours of Sunday (AEDT) to demand a new referendum on leaving the European Union, as Britain reaches a critical fork in the Brexit road.
The protest came as calls kept growing for Prime Minister Theresa May to say she'll step down - because she appears unable to get her Brexit deal through parliament, and MPs from both major parties look set to try to take control of the Brexit process this week.
By the end of this week, assuming Mrs May does not again find a way to prevaricate or procrastinate, it will be clear whether parliament can agree on an alternative way out of the Brexit impasse, or whether the country will crash out with no Brexit deal on April 12.
-----
Trump to nominate Stephen Moore to Federal Reserve board
Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin and Margaret Talev
Mar 23, 2019 — 6.18am
Washington | Donald Trump said he's nominating Stephen Moore, a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a long-time supporter of the president, for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board.
Trump made the announcement Friday to reporters travelling with him to Palm Beach, Florida, confirming an earlier Bloomberg News report. The president later said in a tweet that Moore is "a very respected Economist" and said he has "no doubt he will be an outstanding choice".
Moore has emerged as an ardent critic of the Federal Reserve Board under its current chairman, Jerome Powell, who fell out of favor with Trump last year after the Fed's rate increases.
-----
May faces 'full-blown coup' as ministers reportedly tire of 'toxic' PM
By Nick Miller
March 24, 2019 — 10.55am
London: British newspapers are reporting a “full-blown cabinet coup” against Prime Minister Theresa May, as senior ministers move to oust her.
“She will be gone in 10 days,” one cabinet minister told the Sunday Times.
Close to one million protesters have taken to the streets in central London to demand a second referendum to be held over Brexit.
“Discussions about the prime minister’s future are ongoing,” a senior Downing Street source told the Mail on Sunday.
-----
Theresa May fights coup to oust her, determined to push her Brexit
Guy Faulconbridge and Paul Sandle
Mar 25, 2019 — 7.35am
Key Points
- Brexit could be softened by Parliament
- 'May faces plot to oust her' says the Sunday Times
- Changing PM wouldn't help, Chancellor of Exchequer says
- May's de facto deputy and senior minister Gove back PM
London | British Prime Minister Theresa May was holding crisis talks with colleagues through the weekend in an effort to breathe life into her twice-defeated Brexit deal after reports that her cabinet was plotting to topple her.
The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union was already slipping from May's weakened grasp as she struggled to increase support for her deal and parliament prepared to grab control of Brexit in the coming days.
-----
Mueller report found no evidence of Trump collusion with Russia
By Chris Strohm and Shannon Pettypiece
Updated March 25, 2019 — 8.11amfirst published at 6.58am
Special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation did not find evidence that President Donald Trump's campaign "conspired or coordinated" with Russia to influence the 2016 presidential election, the Attorney General William Barr says. Mueller also investigated whether Trump obstructed justice but made no conclusion.
Barr issued a four-page summary of Mueller's "principal conclusions" to congress on Sunday afternoon, local time - two days after Mueller gave him his still-secret report. The letter said the report "does not exonerate" the president on obstruction and instead "sets out evidence on both sides of the question".
Special Counsel Robert Mueller's long-awaited report was welcomed by the US President, after it found his presidential campaign did not work directly with Russia to sway to 2016 election.
-----
Mueller report a victory for Trump but denies Americans the closure they needed
By Matthew Knott
March 25, 2019 — 9.39am
New York: Special counsel Robert Mueller's verdict that there was no collusion between Donald Trump's campaign and Russia has delivered the US President one of the best days of his presidency.
Mueller's central finding is devastating news for American progressives, many of whom became overly invested in the idea that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin worked together to steal an election.
But his failure to reach a definitive finding on the question of obstruction of justice has denied Americans the chance to move past their partisan differences and agree on at least one core fact: their president is not a crook.
-----
Does US Treasury yield curve signal a recession ahead?
James Mackintosh
- The Wall Street Journal
- March 25, 2019
The US market’s most-reliable recession indicator is finally flashing red. With the Treasury yield curve inverting on Friday -- the 10-year yield fell sharply to be lower than the three-month for the first time since 2007 -- is it finally time to prepare for an economic downturn?
The answer is nuanced. It is true that the yield curve is the best forecasting tool for recessions, having inverted before each of the last seven recessions as measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
But the idea that the gap between short- and long-dated Treasury yields is a rock-solid predictor you can use for your portfolio positioning is mistaken in several ways.
-----
MPs seize control of Brexit from May in 'constitutional revolution'
By Nick Miller
March 26, 2019 — 10.19am
London: The UK parliament has seized control of Brexit from the May government and will hold an extraordinary session on Wednesday to choose between possible outcomes such as another referendum, a no-deal Brexit or even cancelling Brexit altogether.
The government fiercely opposed the House of Commons vote on Monday night to take control, warning it would set a dangerous constitutional precedent. The government traditionally runs business in the House of Commons, deciding when and what debates and votes occur.
“[It] would overturn the balance of our democratic institutions,” Prime Minister Theresa May said.
-----
The impeachment of Donald Trump is dead
By Bruce Wolpe
March 26, 2019 — 12.00am
The impeachment of Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States, died on Sunday in Washington with the release of the four-page summary of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report.
For the 675 days of the work of the Special Counsel, there were two paramount issues to examine for criminal conduct. First, did the Trump campaign criminally conspire with Russia – either the government or its operatives – to corrupt the 2016 presidential election?
Special Counsel Robert Mueller's long-awaited report was welcomed by the US President, after it found his presidential campaign did not work directly with Russia to sway to 2016 election.
-----
The world is slowing down at an alarming speed
By Stephen Bartholomeusz
March 25, 2019 — 3.30pm
The manufacturing industry data from the US and Eurozone late last week confirms the view that the global economy is slowing at a disconcerting rate and appears to show the reversal of the US Federal Reserve Board’s monetary policies this year is warranted.
While the US purchasing managers’ index, or PMI, was still in positive territory manufacturing activity is slowing. In Germany and France it is actually shrinking, with Germany’s PMI showing its manufacturing sector is contracting at its fastest rate in nearly seven years.
The PMIs are based on surveys within the manufacturing and services sectors. Anything above 50 reflects a manufacturing sector that is growing. Anything below 50 says it is shrinking.
-----
https://www.afr.com/news/economy/us-fourth-quarter-growth-cut-corporate-profits-fall-20190329-p518qj
US fourth-quarter growth cut; corporate profits fall
Lucia Mutikani
Mar 29, 2019 — 3.51am
Washington | The US economy slowed more than initially thought in the fourth quarter, keeping growth in 2018 below the Trump administration's 3 per cent annual target, and corporate profits fell by the most in a year.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.2 per cent annualised rate, the Commerce Department said in its third reading of fourth-quarter GDP growth.
That was down from the 2.6 per cent pace estimated in February.
The economy grew at a 3.4 per cent pace in the third quarter. The expansion will be the longest on record in July.
The revisions to the fourth-quarter GDP reading reflected markdowns to consumer and business spending, as well as government outlays and investment in homebuilding.
-----
China's Li Keqiang says growth higher than expected
By Kirsty Needham
March 28, 2019 — 7.30pm
Boao, China: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has shifted tack and talked up China’s economy, saying recent growth had been higher than expected which showed government tax cuts were working.
In a shift in tone from his gloomier speech to National People’s Congress last month, Mr Li told an international business audience at the Boao Forum for Asia there had been rapid growth in March in imports and exports and freight volumes.
Major economic indicators such as employment and prices had been steady.
-----
Australian coal at risk from China move, warns government report
By Cole Latimer
March 29, 2019 — 12.01am
A new government report warns China's restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a significant price slump.
Since February, China has been placing increasingly onerous import restrictions on Australian thermal coal.
Some ships carrying Australian coal are now being diverted to other countries such as India or Vietnam rather than deal with Chinese customs.
"Developments in China's thermal coal market remain the key risk to the outlook for thermal coal prices, due to the sheer size of the domestic coal market and ongoing uncertainty over its import policy," the report said.
-----
UK parliament rejects May's deal for third time
William James, Kylie MacLellan and Elizabeth Piper
Mar 30, 2019 — 5.39am
London | Lawmakers rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for a third time on Friday, sounding its probable death knell and leaving Britain's withdrawal from the European Union in turmoil on the very day it was supposed to quit the bloc.
The decision to reject a stripped-down version of May's divorce deal has left it totally unclear how, when or even whether Britain will leave the EU, and plunges the three-year Brexit crisis to a deeper level of uncertainty.
"I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this House," May told parliament after the defeat. "The implications of the House’s decision are grave."
Within minutes of the vote, European Council President and summit chair Donald Tusk said EU leaders would meet on April 10 to discuss Britain's departure from the bloc.
-----
Chinese officials issue stark warning about South China Sea confrontation
By Kirsty Needham
March 29, 2019 — 5.10pm
Boao, China: China has warned it may take “more countermeasures” against United States patrols in the South China Sea, as tensions worsen in a potential military flashpoint between the two major powers.
Two senior Chinese officials intervened in an academic discussion at the Boao Forum for Asia on Friday to air China’s grievances against the United States' freedom of navigation patrols near islands claimed by China in the contested waterways.
An international tribunal has ruled the South China Sea is not Chinese territory, and Australia has joined the US in condemning militarisation of the islands.
Director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore, Zheng Yongnian, warned that although it was unlikely a “hot war” would break out between the US and China, he was concerned about proxy wars in the region.
-----
I look forward to comments on all this!
-----
David.
