April 14 2022 Edition
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Well the war
in Ukraine rages on and it is looking to last much too long for all of us. Ukraine has sunk a Russin cruiser in the Black sea which the Russians will not be pleased about! The death toll on both sides is just so awfully sad.
In the UK Boris is working hard to maximise the help he can give Ukraine and the benefit for his standing at home.
In OZ we are
now in a long election campaign and most of us will go into hiding till it is
all over! So far it has been just horrible with the same uninspiring lines being repeated endlessly.
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Major Issues.
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Learning to love, not fear, the ‘debt mountain’
The attainment of a budget surplus is regularly used as a measure of sound economic management. It is time to move on from the Thatcherite obsession with the “deficit bad, surplus good” scenario.
Martin Whetton
Apr 3, 2022 – 12.44pm
In the 1980s, then British prime minister Margaret Thatcher used the analogy of managing the household budget to enact a dramatic cut in government spending – arguing that governments can’t keep spending and must have a balanced budget.
This approach ushered in a several-decades long obsession with fiscal surpluses and budget management. This was, to begin with, a totem of conservative governments, but was adopted by former US president Bill Clinton and others.
In the early 2000s, Germany insisted that for the stability and growth pact of the European Union to work, countries must limit deficits to 3 per cent of GDP.
In Australia, the attainment of a budget surplus, be it at federal or state levels, is a regular beating stick in politics used as a measure of sound economic management.
The fear of a sovereign downgrade, access to finance and political credibility has been tied in many ways to “paying back the debt”.
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https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/04/04/house-prices-destructive-alan-kohler/
6:00am, Apr 4, 2022 Updated: 8:09pm, Apr 3
Alan Kohler: Waking up from the Australian Dream
The disaster of Australian house prices over the past 40 years has not just reshaped the economy but fundamentally transformed society.
In 1980, the median house value in Australia was $69,693. On Friday we learnt that it’s now $738,975, a rise of 25 per cent in the past 18 months of the pandemic – the fastest growth in history – and a 960 per cent increase since 1980.
Australia’s disadvantage is made worse by slow wages growth.
In the vast majority of developed countries, houses have become cheaper relative to income over the past 40 to 50 years, while in Australia that ratio has more than doubled.
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PM starts the election race from well behind: poll
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Updated Apr 4, 2022 – 7.39am, first published at Apr 3, 2022 – 10.00pm
The Morrison government will enter the election campaign lagging Labor by up to 10 percentage points, according to an exclusive new poll, which also shows last week’s federal budget was given a lukewarm reception by voters and may not provide the boost required.
In the first of a new series of Ipsos polls to be conducted for The Australian Financial Review between now and the May election, Scott Morrison has a much higher disapproval rating than Labor leader Anthony Albanese, especially among women, but there is little difference between the two in terms of preferred prime minister
With Mr Morrison expected to call the election within a week, the poll finds the Prime Minister and his government are on the nose, but voters have yet to flock en masse to Labor or Mr Albanese.
The Financial Review Ipsos poll of 2563 voters was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday last week, encompassing the immediate aftermath of Tuesday’s budget with its $8.6 billion cost of living package, and Mr Albanese’s response on Thursday night, which included a $2.5 billion-plus pledge to fix aged-care sector standards and wages.
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It’s all in the timing. Factional enemies square up with Morrison
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Apr 3, 2022 – 5.18pm
Bruce Baird had every intention of recontesting his Sutherland Shire seat of Cook in Sydney at the 2007 election. Until he didn’t.
Baird’s fate was pretty much sealed in October 2006. While the leading Liberal moderate MP was in New York on a three-month secondment to the United Nations, an annual junket granted to two backbenchers, the hard Right faction of the NSW Liberal Party stacked his branches.
The faction, which included Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, David Clarke and Marie Ficcara, which had just taken over the moderate NSW Liberal state seat of Hawkesbury, had poured 300 new members into Cook’s branches ahead of a deadline beyond which no new members could vote in preselections the following year.
“Baird fears ambush from Liberal Right,” headlined The Sydney Morning Herald exclusive report of the stacks.
Amid the chaos and confusion, fingers were initially pointed at former party state director and former head of Tourism Australia, Scott Morrison, who had long been mooted to replace Baird when he retired. Morrison cried foul at such suggestions.
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Building a portfolio of inflation, recession-proof stocks
Alex Gluyas Markets reporter
Apr 4, 2022 – 5.00am
The stunning recovery rally on Wall Street over the past month has reignited concerns that stock valuations look inflated, particularly as war rages on in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve kicks off its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades to tackle inflation.
But for Nick Markiewicz, who spearheads Lanyon Asset Management’s global equity strategy, finding value in the recent bull market is all about digging beneath the surface.
“The US market as a whole in aggregate is the most expensive it’s ever been by a huge margin, but if you look at it by market cap weightings, it’s really the top third of the market that has actually seen a significant re-rate,” he says.
“On a simple measure, like price to book, the bottom two thirds of the market isn’t that different in terms of valuations compared to 10, 15, 20 years ago. So, there’s still a heap of small to mid-cap stocks that are trading at incredibly cheap valuations.”
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Mid-2020s pose our gravest risk since WWII
12:00AM April 4, 2022
In the new cold war, Southeast Asia is becoming a contested zone where China, the US and its allies are fighting to sustain their access and influence.
This matters deeply to Australia because the superpower that dominates Southeast Asia controls our northern approaches.
The Obama administration dismissed Beijing’s island building in the South China Sea as a third-order issue over claims to “rocks and shoals”.
It’s clearer now that these new, large, fortified airbases and ports extend China’s military power south to the Indonesian archipelago.
When, in February, Beijing sent two of its most modern navy vessels through the Torres Strait and down the east coast, the message was clear: the People’s Liberation Army intends to project force whenever and wherever it can.
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Morgan poll shows ALP increasing lead
Tom Burton – April 5, 2022
A new Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the past week shows the ALP extending its large lead over the Coalition, putting the opposition a massive 14 per centage points ahead on a two-party preferred basis.
The poll shows the ALP is now on 57% (up 1.5 percentage points from a week ago) compared to the LNP at 43% (down 1.5 percentage points) on a two-party preferred basis.
If a federal election were held today, the ALP would win a clear majority, the Roy Morgan polling group said. The poll is part of an ongoing omnibus poll Morgan carries out with 1000 people surveyed.
Voting analysis by state shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six states during the past week, after regaining a narrow two-party preferred lead in Queensland.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-leads-in-all-states-and-territories-poll-20220404-p5aakq
Labor leads in the biggest states, says the latest Ipsos poll
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Apr 4, 2022 – 6.30pm
Labor will begin the election campaign with leads over the Coalition in Victoria and Queensland, in which it was trounced three years ago, but the race is tighter in NSW, according The Australian Financial Review/Ipsos poll.
As Scott Morrison awaits the outcome of a court challenge on Tuesday, which could affect the timing of the election, the poll also shows the Coalition behind in all other states and territories, but the sample sizes are too small to provide any more than a rough indication.
The nationwide poll of 2563 voters, taken from Wednesday to Saturday last week, shows Labor has clawed back ground in Queensland, in which it holds just six of the 30 seats.
At the last election, Labor won just 26.7 per cent of the primary vote and lost the two-party-preferred voting by 58.4 per cent to 48.6 per cent.
The Financial Review/ Ipsos poll sampled 514 Queenslanders, which has a margin of error of 4.41 per cent.
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Victory within Albanese’s grasp but Morrison still in the race
By David Crowe
April 5, 2022 — 5.00am
Scott Morrison needs a surge of approval that can propel him back into the election race when he and his government are dangerously becalmed. But all the Prime Minister has gained from his big-spending budget is the mere whiff of a gentle breeze.
Voters like the budget, but they do not like it enough to change their opinion about Morrison and certainly not enough to swing back to the Coalition after a steady shift toward Labor and its leader, Anthony Albanese.
A “budget bounce” was always unlikely. It has been said before but needs repeating – budget bounces are like snow leopards, not only because they are so rare but because they are so hard to observe.
Former prime minister John Howard and his treasurer Peter Costello witnessed a bounce in 1999 and again in 2000, but there have been very few since then in the published opinion polls.
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Our defence promises are pure hot air
12:00AM April 5, 2022
If Australia could guarantee its security through announcements, we would be the most secure nation in the world. The government has finally decided on its industry partners in the project, first announced two years ago, to create an Australian missile manufacturing enterprise. They will be Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, two of the biggest missile manufacturers in the world. We are also going to get some advanced sea mines and accelerate the acquisition of missiles for the navy and air force.
All of this is very good. It remains a mystery why it took two years since the first announcement to get to the point where we’ve chosen Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. They were the obvious choice before day one.
It’s more than a bit unclear what the various Australian companies and consortia that have been simultaneously announced will do. Canberra typically likes to share the honey around so that everybody gets a prize.
Our making missiles will require formal State Department approval for each missile type. This will be forthcoming, but it only gets tested when we apply for permission to produce a weapon.
The bigger danger is the announcement never produces action, or produces action far below that suggested in the initial announcement. For the past 15 years, defence policy has been characterised by epic announcement and dismal failure to deliver.
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War in Ukraine: Lessons learnt, it’s time to act with alacrity
12:00AM April 5, 2022
If Ukraine demonstrates three military lessons, it’s these: stocks of missiles in wartime are at an absolute premium; armed drones are critical in modern warfare; and tanks are a busted flush even in circumstances that were thought to favour their use.
Australia seems set to act on at least the first of those lessons.
Canberra has moved a big step further to creating a sovereign guided weapons enterprise.
In regular English, that means we’re going to have a couple of factories that produce missiles. That is fantastic news for our long-term security. The two industry partners Canberra has selected are American behemoths Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.
Both are already intimately involved in the most sensitive Australian military technologies and are long-term partners of the Australian Defence Force. Each is committed to establishing facilities in producing missiles here.
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No limit to the pile-on from Morrison’s many enemies on his own side
Scott Morrison had a win over NSW preselections in court, but the political scars have badly damaged the Coalition’s hopes of picking up seats in the state.
Jennifer Hewett Columnist
Apr 5, 2022 – 3.53pm
So much for Labor being the real enemy.
Scott Morrison can only rue the adage a party that can’t govern itself can’t govern the country. Rather than being the Coalition’s crucial insurance policy for a tough election, NSW now looks more like a political car crash in agonisingly slow motion.
The NSW Court of Appeal applied emergency brakes by declaring on Tuesday the federal executive had the right to bypass an impasse in the NSW division in order to endorse three sitting Liberal MPs.
Yet the fiasco has already dented initial Coalition optimism that NSW Liberal seat gains could counter expected losses in other states.
Add in a NSW state government which is more interested in its own re-election next March than that of the Morrison government this May. Indeed, the NSW government believes Morrison continuing in office would be a hindrance to its hopes in a year’s time.
Australia to develop hypersonic missiles
Andrew Tillett and Matthew Cranston
Apr 6, 2022 – 3.00am
Australia, the United States and United Kingdom will jointly develop hypersonic missiles to keep up with China and Russia, which publicly at least appear to have an edge in the new weapons technology.
In a pre-election boost for Scott Morrison, the trilateral agreement on hypersonics was signed under AUKUS, with the three countries also adding electronic warfare to the list of technologies they are co-operating on under the pact.
The agreement adds momentum to Australia’s efforts to start producing its own hypersonic missiles on home ground after the federal government announced last month that it will invest $1 billion to build new missiles and guided weapons in Australia.
The AUKUS members also said they were “pleased” with the progress made towards Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, but offered no indication of the design that will be selected.
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How AUKUS has brought an alliance revolution to Australia
AUKUS acknowledged the end of US primacy in the Pacific, replaced by strategic competition and a far more complex deterrent alliance for Australia.
Peter Dean
Apr 5, 2022 – 4.34pm
If AUKUS evokes anything, it is the image of nuclear-powered submarines. They dominated the AUKUS press conference between Scott Morrison, Joe Biden and Boris Johnson, and stole media headlines around the world.
It is six months into the AUKUS deal and Wednesday (AEST) will see the first report card being delivered. It is likely that we will start to see a shift in emphasis, to “non-submarine” topics such as quantum technologies, autonomous undersea capabilities, artificial intelligence, information sharing, innovation and cyber security.
We know that moves are under way for AUKUS, currently driven by the US President and thus the US executive branch, to become a legislative program. As the Friends of Australia Caucus co-chair congressman Joe Courtney noted recently, the power behind AUKUS will also be legislative, “coming from Congress itself”.
This reaffirms the profound, yet largely unnoticed, shifts that have occurred in Australian strategic policy, caused by AUKUS and the events of 2021. If you add together the significance of the 2021 G7 meeting (where AUKUS was cemented), the US policy announcement midyear of integrated deterrence which combines military with non-military, the QUAD leaders’ meeting of September (the same month as AUKUS), and the AUSMIN 2021 meeting outcomes, what you get is an alliance revolution.
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Trust in Australia sinks in Indonesia, survey finds
6:18PM April 5, 2022
Indonesians’ trust in Australia has plummeted in the past decade despite a massive government effort to improve relations with our larger northern neighbour, as new polling shows one-third of all Indonesians still believe Australia poses a threat.
A new Lowy Institute survey of 3000 Indonesians, taken in late 2021, shows trust in Australia dropped 20 points to 55 per cent between 2011 and 2021, while just 38 per cent of those polled expressed confidence in Scott Morrison – only 4 per cent above the ratings of China’s President Xi Jinping and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo was named most trusted leader, followed by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud and the United Arab Emirates’ Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.
Neither Australia’s determination to acquire nuclear-powered submarines through its new AUKUS security pact, which Jakarta has forcefully criticised, nor its membership of the Quadrilateral group can be blamed for our poor showing.
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All at sea on rhetoric without substance
April 6, 2022
The Morrison government should urgently accept the offer by Navantia, as reported by my colleague, Ben Packham, to build three more air warfare destroyers.
Defence Minister Peter Dutton said the new missiles announced on Tuesday were necessary to keep the Chinese threat at bay, and to stand up to any acts of aggression against us.
Sadly, the missile announcements don’t add up to very much at all.
On the plus side, the air force and navy will get new longer-range missiles in two years instead of five. Nobody knew the timetable was five years. Why was there ever such a lazy approach?
Self-congratulatory artificial timing announcements are old tricks. Set an absurdly long deadline, announce an advance by a year or two, shower yourself in congratulations.
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Missiles an equaliser in wartime
Editorial
12:00AM April 6, 2022
Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion has demonstrated an important military lesson: missiles are a great leveller against larger powers in wartime. After years of Australia falling badly short in missile capabilities, the government’s move to arm fighter jets with long-range strike missiles three years earlier than scheduled under a $3.5bn military upgrade is an important step in the right direction. Defence Minister Peter Dutton has announced that by 2024, Australia’s Super Hornets, and in future the F-35A Lightning II, will be armed with JASSM-ER missiles capable of engaging targets at a range of up to 900km.
From the same year, Hobart-class destroyers and Anzac frigates will be equipped with new, Norwegian-made Naval Strike Missiles. The missiles will equip aircraft and naval vessels to better protect Australia’s maritime approaches. In an important pre-election pitch, Spanish shipbuilding giant Navantia has offered to build the Australian Defence Force three more of its Hobart-class air warfare destroyers within a decade for $2bn each, which would fill a capability gap by doubling the number of guided-missile platforms Australia could put to sea.
In a move that will strengthen supply chains, US defence giants Raytheon and Lockheed Martin will work with three local partners – the Australian Missile Corporation, the Sovereign Missile Alliance and Aurecon Advisory – to “rapidly increase” Australia’s ability to maintain and make guided weapons. It was announced two years ago that Australia would produce missiles. Settling on our industry partners should not have taken this long. But it is a vital step. As Mr Dutton says, Australia’s strategic environment is becoming more complex and challenging with the Indo-Pacific at the epicentre of global strategic competition.
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Australian Taxation Office in crackdown on SMSF operators
6:55PM April 5, 2022
Industry regulators have unleashed a serious clean-up on the self-managed super funds sector with a big jump in funds reportedly breaking rules, while auditors have also come under fire.
The Australian Taxation Office which – controversially – acts as both tax collector and regulator for the sector, says the number of rule breaches has jumped by 22 per cent this financial year to date.
The substantial rise in contraventions comes on the heels of a lively spell in 2021 when 13,800 SMSFs were caught for 40,000 contraventions, representing a 10 per cent lift on 2020, according to the SMSF Adviser service which reported the statistics after they were made available at a Tax Institute session.
It seems the ATO has been coming down hard on every area of SMSF activity, with contraventions emerging in everything from financing to property valuations.
Peter Burgess of the Self Managed Super Fund Association suggests: “It’s disappointing to see a lift in contraventions because we have been seen a relatively steady volume of breaches most years up until now.”
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https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/markets-just-got-a-new-known-unknown-20220407-p5abkc
Markets just got a new known unknown
Quantitative tightening represents a big shift for markets, which will see financial conditions tighten and volatility increase. The Fed won’t mind that a bit.
Apr 7, 2022 – 9.53am
The US Federal Reserve has handed investors another thing to worry about - and the central bank won’t mind that a bit.
The release on Wednesday night of the minutes of the Fed’s meeting in March make it clear that a 50 basis point rate rise was on the table until Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to a 25 basis point hike.
But bigger-bang hikes are clearly on the table heading into the next few meetings, with a growing number of Fed members clearly now uncomfortable about the pace of inflation that they’ve allowed to build up.
As promised by Fed chairman Jerome Powell, the minutes also detailed the central bank’s thinking on the reduction of its gargantuan balance sheet, which has ballooned to almost $US9 trillion (35 per cent of GDP) during the long period of bond and security buying known as quantitative easing.
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Friendly fire forces Morrison, Albanese into the crosshairs
Award-winning political commentator and author
April 7, 2022 — 5.00am
This election campaign was always destined to get dirty. It was shaping up as one of the dirtiest ever. And so it has come to pass, but in ways not even seasoned operators predicted.
The surprise is that the missiles launched from each side have targeted their own, although it has to be said with much greater precision by Liberals, inflicting potentially fatal wounds on Scott Morrison.
The hits against Labor following Senator Kimberley Kitching’s untimely death while her preselection remained unresolved, succeeded in halting Anthony Albanese’s momentum. Nevertheless, according to every poll, including Resolve in this paper, the election is now his to lose.
Albanese can thank the fusillade of allegations from senior Liberal and National figures, accusing Morrison of bullying, lying, hypocrisy, racism, even politicising flood funding, which have multiplied over time and intensified in the past few weeks, for helping erode Morrison’s standing, drag down the Coalition’s vote and prove another immutable law of politics that no matter how bad it is, it can always get worse.
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‘Hit back hard’: Top cyber spy warns Russia not to send Ukraine dark
April 7, 2022 — 5.00am
Australia’s top cyber spy has suggested Russia has not launched a major cyber attack on Ukraine because it fears what Western countries such as Australia would do in return.
Australian Signals Directorate boss Rachel Noble also confirmed Australia was concerned about China’s “intent and their long-term interests” in the Pacific after revelations of a pending security deal between Beijing and the Solomon Islands.
Leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there were widespread fears that there would be a major cyber attack to cut off electricity and communications given the nation’s long history of cyber warfare. But this hasn’t materialised, with no significant hack during the invasion that could have sent large parts of the country dark.
In an exclusive interview with The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, Ms Noble warned Russia could still launch a major hack attack against Ukraine.
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Scott Morrison becomes a punching bag for Labor and Liberals alike
Character assassination has taken the place of policy for Labor. But it’s the parochial fury of his own NSW party that is really unsettling the Coalition campaign.
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Apr 7, 2022 – 8.00pm
A routine mobile phone media alert issued by Labor HQ on Tuesday gave notice that disaster and emergency management spokesman Murray Watt would be conducting a 9am press conference on the Gold Coast.
The topic? “Scott Morrison’s character”.
It was raining again and Watt was on his way to Lismore to revel once more in the anger directed at the federal government, including by NSW state Liberal MP Catherine Cusack, who was having her second blow-up in a month over what she thought of the Prime Minister’s response thus far.
When the floods first struck, Watt did a clinical job in fostering resentment over the government’s response while Anthony Albanese, according to his spin doctors, maintained a statesman-like distance.
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Rate rises could cut 15 per cent from house prices: RBA
Ronald Mizen Economics correspondent
Apr 8, 2022 – 5.48pm
House prices could fall 15 per cent if interest rates rise in line with market expectations, the Reserve Bank has warned, and economists said it was unclear how households would react to the first rate increase since 2010.
The RBA this week signalled the emergency 0.1 per cash rate could rise in June. Economists tip it will hit 1 per cent or more by year’s end, but financial markets are betting it could be double that.
A 2 percentage point increase in interest rates would take the average standard variable-rate home loan to more than 5.5 per cent, adding thousands of dollars a year to people’s mortgage repayments.
Westpac predicts a 14 per cent fall in house prices over two years from late 2022, while AMP Capital is tipping a 10 per cent to 15 per cent fall by early 2024.
More than 5000 homes are set to go under the hammer this week – the highest volume so far this year – as vendors rush to sell before interest rate rises trigger a sustained fall in house prices, according to SQM Research.
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Morrison’s sandbagging isn’t stopping the tide against him
The Prime Minister has plenty of money to stuff into marginal seats, but seems strangely deaf to those whose lives have been washed away.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Apr 8, 2022 – 4.44pm
South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas has just won an election. Rather convincingly. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is trying to win one. Given the assistance he is getting from his own side of politics of late, he would probably just settle for winning unconvincingly.
Malinauskas is all fresh-faced enthusiasm and big ideas. Scott Morrison, like his government, just looks tired and – quite a lot of the time – petulant.
The South Australian Premier came to the National Press Club in Canberra this week, keen to get a few new ideas on the national agenda before we all disappear into the vortex of an election campaign.
The Prime Minister travelled the country, re-announcing exceptionally large bundles of money for infrastructure in target electorates, while apparently having to be dragged kicking and screaming to give more money to people whose lives have been destroyed by floods.
The contrast in the PM’s approaches between infrastructure and flooding is one of those mysteries of modern Australian politics.
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Three angry men and the question of Morrison’s character
Aaron Patrick Senior correspondent
Apr 8, 2022 – 1.18pm
Their timing was accidental. Their motives questionable. Their executions undignified.
This week three angry men, Michael Towke, Matthew Camenzuli and Raymond Drury, made small but notable contributions to the undeclared campaign’s obsession: the prime minister’s character.
The mission to frame Scott Morrison as devious, dishonest, and disingenuous has been a joint and substantial project by his political opponents since it became clear the election would not be fought over policy.
Unwilling to fight a contest of ideas – not without reason given the trauma of 2019 – Labor is waging a war against a personality.
Morrison has aided his opponents through a strange inability to create an aura of self-authenticity, perhaps because he’s aware of the contradiction between his Christian soul and political expediency necessitated by high office.
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Your two-minute guide to investing in crypto
The ways in which retail investors can access cryptocurrencies are changing as regulators crack down. But here are your options for now.
Aleks Vickovich Wealth editor
Apr 8, 2022 – 12.55pm
As an unregulated market, there are few rules about who can purchase cryptocurrencies and how much they can buy.
For Australian investors, regulations governing cryptocurrency exchanges and their use could be forthcoming if the next government implements the recommendations of last year’s Bragg report into cryptocurrency policy.
But as it stands, the main way retail investors (that is, those with less than $2.5 million in net assets or earning less than $250,000 a year) can invest in crypto assets is by directly buying units via an unregulated cryptocurrency trading platform or exchange. They can do this in just minutes, after just providing some basic identification. Most exchanges provide access not just to large-cap tokens like bitcoin and ether but hundreds of “alt-coins”.
A number of local crypto-specialist exchanges have emerged in recent years, including (but not limited to) BTC Markets, SwyftX and Kraken. A number of sharemarket brokers have also announced plans to allow cryptocurrency trading, including Commonwealth Bank’s CommSec, SelfWealth, Stake and Superhero, but none have executed this functionality yet. Australians can also access many offshore exchanges.
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https://betterhumans.pub/20-googling-tricks-99-of-people-dont-know-about-465ba0477bec
Mar 28 2022
20 Googling Tricks 99% of People Don’t Know About
Here’s how to double your search outputs using half the time and energy
Google is not a company anymore. It’s more than a brand — it’s a noun, verb, and adjective.
Did you know that there are two trillion+ Google searches every year?
It wouldn’t be wrong to say that Google is the world's think tank with trillions of indexed pages.
But to extract the desired information in optimum time is a skill many of us have.
Though you know that Google is the best way to find information online, you get frustrated when you don’t find what you need in the first few pages of results.
So, from advanced search operators to using Google for research, these tips will help you get the most out of your next Google session.
These tricks will also half your surfing time and double the Google output.
So without further ado, let’s get started!
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The race card with a twist: Towke turned the table on Morrison, and it hurt
Columnist
April 9, 2022 — 5.00am
Scott Morrison had the race card turned against him by a Lebanese Australian this week, and it hurt the Prime Minister – not just personally but politically.
The very notion that Michael Towke, the man who Morrison outmanoeuvred to win preselection for the federal seat of Cook, in Sydney’s parochial south, could damage the government’s re-election chances by reviving a 15-year-old dispute appears on paper, to be somewhat absurd.
Race cards are not supposed to work that way, with a member of a minority ethnic community embarrassing a Liberal prime minister who speaks for the Quiet Australians.
But Morrison’s home town of Sydney is no longer the safe haven for the old politics of race. And this is the most stunning feature of the story told by Towke more than a decade after the fact. What might have been considered a standard Liberal operation in 2007 is no longer plausible in the city with the largest overseas-born population in the country.
For Albanese to succeed the PM had to fail: Scott Morrison did not disappoint
Political and international editor
April 9, 2022 — 5.00am
It’s time for Anthony Albanese to get some credit. The Prime Minister is calling the election and Albanese is exactly where he planned to be. Ahead.
Under years of intense pressure to find some inner mongrel, to get more aggressive, Albanese stayed calm and carried on with his plan.
From the outset, Albanese was determined to avoid Labor’s mistakes under Bill Shorten’s leadership.
One of Albanese’s favourite refrains was “more strategy, less tactics”. He shrugged off pressure to produce exciting new policy ideas every week. He urged colleagues to “think about where we want to be in three years, not three weeks”.
Shorten Labor took nearly 300 detailed policies to the 2019 election. That was a lot of targets for Morrison to shoot at. Albanese presented, by contrast, a “small target”.
He refused to be panicked into the non-stop attacks that define most opposition leaders. He signs his correspondence as “Labor leader”, not Opposition Leader.
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https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/how-will-we-know-when-its-world-war-iii-20220408-p5ac19.html
How will we know when it’s World War III?
By Gavriel Rosenfeld
April 9, 2022 — 12.10am
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, commentators have openly worried that the escalating conflict may trigger World War III. In mid-March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News that a third world war “may have already started.” Ukraine’s former prime minister, Oleksiy Honcharuck, went further, declaring that “World War III . . . hаs аlreаdy begun.”
Western journalists have followed suit, with Bret Stephens responding to Russia’s invasion by writing: “This is How World War III begins” and the British press wondering whether “World War 3 [is] now a reality in Europe?”
At first glance, these claims seem wildly exaggerated. World Wars I and II spanned multiple continents, while Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is a war between two countries. Despite worldwide statements of support for Ukrainian forces, there has been no equivalent of England and France declaring war on Germany two days after it invaded Poland on Sept. 1, 1939.
Foreign volunteers have poured into Ukraine from various Western nations, but that development is more analogous to the Spanish Civil War of 1936-1939, which was not part of World War II.
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Why the financial advice crisis never stops
12:58AM April 9, 2022
Imagine for a moment you are a new investor in the Australian market seeking advice.
You could only be shaken by the run of new scandals in the industry, which are stunning even by the lofty standards set by this sector in the past.
It’s a roll call of shabby practice at every level. We have the notorious conwoman Melissa Caddick, who allegedly stole up to $25m in a Ponzi scheme and is now the subject of a television drama.
There is Dominique Grubisa of the DG Institute, hit with a four-year ban this week after the regulator found her to be lying about holding financial service licences. That’s the woman who was recommending clients study Family Court data to “identify people in financial distress”.
Then we have stockbroker Kristofer Ridgway, sacked by Shaw and Partners for allegedly diverting $3.5m of client money into “unrecommended products”.
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How to think about crypto assets in a serious portfolio
The digital currencies are still too wild and whacky for some investors to buy into. But a growing consensus says they are too important to ignore.
Aleks Vickovich Wealth editor
Apr 8, 2022 – 1.42pm
For some hardcore crypto evangelists, the merits of investing your personal or household capital in digital assets is undisputed.
“If you do the homework, you end up investing some portion of your assets in cryptocurrency,” Anthony Scaramucci, founder of New York-based hedge fund SkyBridge Capital, told The Australian Financial Review Cryptocurrency Summit on Wednesday.
Scaramucci, who is best known for his brief and volatile stint as White House communications director to former US president Donald Trump, only made his first bitcoin trade in 2020. But he has since become a vocal convert and now oversees a growing exposure to digital assets as part of his firm’s $15 billion alternative investments portfolio.
The underlying technology had inherent appeal, he said, as a “delayering” agent that would cut fees and waste from the financial system, helping investors and consumers pay less for transactions and services. That was one of several elements he expected to drive value over time.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/how-china-pervades-our-politics-now-20220407-p5abt4
How China pervades our politics now
Coercion and competition from China are driving bigger and stronger government in Australia, and the debate over how the deficits are ultimately to be paid for.
Richard McGregor Columnist
Apr 8, 2022 – 10.40am
The 2018 laws passed by the Turnbull government to ban foreign political donations ensures there won’t be buckets of money from Chinese citizens funding the coming election.
If you think that’s a jaundiced version of history, recall that Huang Xiangmo, the Chinese billionaire, donated $2.7 million to both political parties before he was barred from Australia, and extracted pro-Beijing policy commitments from a prominent ALP senator in return.
The formal ban on foreign political donations, however, doesn’t tell the full story. While the May election may be free of Chinese funding, Australian politics is awash in cash from China.
Australia’s oligarch-like, mining barons, such as Andrew Forrest ($4 billion in dividends from iron ore in 2021 alone) and Gina Rinehart ($3 billion), have limitless cash to spray on their pet causes, courtesy of sales of the mineral to China’s steel mills.
The most in-your-face of our mining barons, Clive Palmer, gets hundreds of millions in royalties from the Chinese state-owned CITIC iron ore venture in Western Australia. In turn, he is outlaying similar sums for his United Australia Party candidates.
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COVID 19 Information
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Even with omicron peaking, 3000 more expected to die
Tom Burton Government editor
Apr 7, 2022 – 5.32pm
Omicron case loads have peaked and are starting to fall in all states and territories, but one US authority is predicting that 3000 more Australians will die from the virus by late July.
About 4200 people have died from omicron waves, almost double all the deaths from the previous COVID-19 outbreaks. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is projecting Australia’s cumulative deaths to grow by around another 3000 by late July.
If this eventuates, Australia is likely to experience about 7200 deaths across both the omicron waves till the end of July.
By comparison, Australia had about 3630 flu-related deaths in 2017, according to a new Australian Bureau of statistics report looking at excess deaths. (Excess mortality is the difference between the observed and the expected number of deaths for the same period.)
As 2017 was a severe influenza year, this means the country is on track to experiencing deaths at double the level of what was possibly the worst flu season since records have been kept.
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China’s fresh COVID nightmare is a painful reminder
By Jeremy Warner
April 8, 2022 — 8.01am
We thought it was all over, or at least that there were rather bigger things to worry about. Sadly, this turns out to be far from the case.
Record levels of infection, cancelled flights, chaos at airports, continued very high levels of staff absenteeism, long delays in almost every process involving the public sector, and in China some of the harshest lockdowns yet imposed; it all says that COVID is still very much with us, casting a long shadow over both the domestic and global economies.
Try as we might to put the pandemic behind us, it keeps on coming back.
With mass vaccination, we may have grown less fearful of the disease, but in all manner of ways COVID continues to prove an extraordinarily destructive influence.
Looking for the root causes of today’s cost-of-living squeeze, for instance, they lie very much in the after effects of the pandemic, or rather the lockdown strategies that policymakers used to contain the disease.
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Climate Change.
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Australia needed a reform budget with climate at its centre
Instead, what we got was short-term giveaways from a government focused on securing its future while ignoring everyone else’s.
Allegra Spender
Apr 3, 2022 – 12.03pm
There is much to be relieved about in the economic numbers of the 2022 budget; COVID-19 recovery is better than expected, unemployment continues to fall and government coffers have been boosted by a commodities boom. Let us thank some good luck, some good policy and most of all the ingenuity and resilience of the Australian people.
But that is where the good news ends. Let us be frank – this budget did nothing on the hard issues.
Climate change continues to be ignored. Despite the environmental imperative to decarbonise and the economic opportunity from green investment, climate spending will be cut by 35 per cent over the next four years. When residents of Lismore, Byron Bay and other northern NSW towns are facing the brunt of extreme weather events, this is the opposite of what Australia needs.
There is no sign the Treasurer wants to deal with debt. Although Australia had to spend big during the pandemic, the government’s pre-election splurge means our national debt will exceed $1.2 trillion by 2026. Despite bumper tax receipts from commodities, the Treasurer has chosen deficits into the next decade and placed the burden firmly on future generations.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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Four things families should know about aged care fees
Understanding how the rules work for means-tested costs can help households manage finances and cash flow.
Louise Biti Contributor
Apr 5, 2022 – 5.00am
In residential aged care, you may be asked to contribute towards the cost of care as a means-tested fee, in addition to the basic daily fee. The more you have in financial resources, the more you might be asked to pay – but only up to the annual cap of $29,399.
The rules for how the means-tested fee is applied are not straightforward, so here are the top four things you need to know.
The fee is not evenly spread across the year
The annual cap averages $80.55 per day, but the mechanics are not that simple. You may find that you pay a higher rate each day (up to $259 per day, based on a care needs assessment) until you reach the annual cap, and then stop paying the means-tested fee for the rest of the year. Timing of cash flow becomes important.
Example: When Lorraine moves into residential care, her means-tested fee is calculated as $150 per day. Lorraine pays $150 per day (plus other fees) for about 196 days until she reaches the annual cap. When the cap is reached, the means-tested fee is no longer payable for the remainder of the year (i.e. the next 169 days).
It is important to note that there may be a delay before the means-tested fee actually stops, based on the reporting cycle by the care provider to Services Australia. If fees are overpaid, the provider will need to refund the excess.
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The elephant in the aged care room is housing wealth
The sheer magnitude of the challenge means we need a better system for getting those who can afford to pay for their care to dip into their own pockets.
Pat Garcia CEO of Catholic Health Australia
Apr 6, 2022 – 10.55am
Aged care is an issue nearly everyone agrees is important and nearly everyone seeks to avoid.
This rule applies doubly if you’re a parliamentarian. The political logic has long held that aged care is one of those issues where you have infinite ways to lose and few to win.
So, to those of us who have been advocating for aged care reform, the Opposition Leader’s budget reply was manna in the desert. Here, for the first time in Australian political history, was a major party leader using a signature platform event to put aged care front and centre.
The headline figure of $2.5 billion splashed across the media the next morning sounded like a game changer. And it is.
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National Budget Issues.
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Don’t worry about national debt - but there’s another issue to be concerned about
Economics Editor
April 3, 2022 — 7.45pm
There’s an easy way to tell how much someone understands economics: those at panic stations about the huge level of our government debt just don’t get it. But that’s not to say we don’t have a problem with the budget deficit.
Australia’s public debt isn’t high by international standards. It doesn’t have to be repaid by us, our children or anyone else. Since budget surpluses – which do reduce debt – have always been the exception rather than the rule, government debt is invariably “rolled over” (when bonds become due for redemption, they’re simply replaced with new ones).
The time-honoured way governments get on top of their debts is simply to outgrow them. So Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s plan to reduce the relative importance of the debt by striving for strong economic growth is neither new nor radical.
If the debt panickers took more notice of what’s actually happening, they’d see that this approach is already bearing fruit. The remarkable strength of the economy’s rebound from the coronacession – much of which is owed to the success of the much-criticised JobKeeper scheme – is helping in two ways.
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https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2022/mr-22-11.html
Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
Number 2022-11
Date 5 April 2022
At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at zero per cent.
Inflation has increased sharply in many parts of the world. Ongoing supply-side problems, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and strong demand as economies recover from the pandemic are all contributing to the upward pressure on prices. In response, bond yields have risen and expectations of future policy interest rates have increased.
The Australian economy remains resilient and spending is picking up following the Omicron setback. Household and business balance sheets are in generally good shape, an upswing in business investment is underway and there is a large pipeline of construction work to be completed. Macroeconomic policy settings also remain supportive of growth and national income is being boosted by higher commodity prices. At the same time, rising prices are putting pressure on household budgets and the floods are causing hardship for many communities.
The strength of the Australian economy is evident in the labour market, with the unemployment rate falling further to 4 per cent in February. Underemployment is also at its lowest level in many years. Job vacancies and job ads are at high levels and point to continuing strong growth in employment over the months ahead. The RBA's central forecast is for the unemployment rate to fall to below 4 per cent this year and to remain below 4 per cent next year.
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-drops-its-patience-signals-rate-rises-coming-20220405-p5aavh
RBA loses its ‘patience’, signals rate rises coming
Ronald Mizen Economics correspondent
Apr 5, 2022 – 2.41pm
The Reserve Bank of Australia has abandoned its language of patience and signalled it could begin raising interest rates within months if wages and inflation data produce strong results.
In his usual post-monthly board meeting statement, RBA governor Philip Lowe said rising inflation was expected to continue, but labour costs were currently below where the central bank wanted them to be.
“Over coming months, important additional evidence will be available to the board on both inflation and the evolution of labour costs,” Dr Lowe said.
“The board will assess this and other incoming information as its sets policy to support full employment in Australia and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.”
Gone from the statement was his usual reference to the board willing to be “patient”, though the allusion to upcoming inflation data on April 27 and wages data on May 18, suggest a pre-election rate rise in May is unlikely.
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https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/rba-s-inflation-message-for-investors-20220405-p5ab1j
RBA’s inflation message for investors
There remains a disconnect between the views of market economists and financial markets, but inflation can be an investor’s best friend.
Apr 5, 2022 – 8.02pm
Investors in doubt about Australia’s inflation breakout and the inevitable sharp rise in the official cash rate ought to read the raft of hawkish statements pumped out by Reserve Bank watchers yesterday.
A handful of less than subtle changes to RBA governor Philip Lowe’s statement following the central bank’s monthly board meeting has most leading economists and macro strategists predicting a 25-basis point rate rise in June.
There is consensus that we are about two months away from ending the emergency monetary policy settings that helped business and consumers navigate their way through the COVID-19 pandemic.
There remains a disconnect between the views of market economists and financial markets, which are pricing in a move in the official cash rate from 0.10 basis points to between 2.5 per cent and 2.75 per cent over the next 18 months.
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/sorry-deficits-really-do-matter-20220406-p5abea
Sorry, deficits really do matter
One analyst believes that we should just learn to love Australia’s debt mountain. But in the end, debt won’t love you back.
Warren Hogan Economist
Apr 7, 2022 – 5.35pm
Commonwealth Bank’s Martin Whetton wrote in a column on these pages this week that we should all stop worrying about government finances and learn to love debt. Putting aside Stanley Kubrick’s satirical snapshot of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), the article attempts to bury legacy thinking on government financial responsibility.
So concerns about debt and deficits are outdated and dangerous neoliberal constructs. Governments aren’t businesses nor are they households. There is no liquidity constraint. They have unlimited short-term financial resources via central bank bond buying programs.
This is true. But it doesn’t change the fact that there are limits on fiscal policy. Limits in terms of the inflationary consequences of massive fiscal injections, and limits in terms of the government’s balance sheet. Debt sustainability still matters.
Few would doubt that an active fiscal policy is called for in times of economic strain. Few would argue against budget deficits that fund essential infrastructure and other investment critical to expanding the supply side of the economy.
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Health Issues.
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No entries in this category.
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International Issues.
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Why the West must mobilise to let Ukraine win the war
Resistance is not the same as victory. But will Western governments provide the level of support needed to defeat and expel Putin’s forces?
Alex Sundakov
Apr 3, 2022 – 3.34pm
After a month of war, Russia has effectively lost, but Ukraine has not won. While Russia continues to throw troops into battle and bomb cities, few military analysts now believe that Russia will be able to regain the military initiative. As Russian forces are pushed further back from the main cities, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure would need to be carried out using long-range guided missiles rather than field artillery.
However, long-range missiles are expensive and Russia may run out of physical ability to replace its missile stocks as sanctions restrict the supply of electronic components. Many missiles are now reportedly missing their targets, as Russia has to dig into old and poorly stored Soviet-era stocks.
There is now far less Western scepticism about Ukrainian claims of Russian losses and growing trust in Ukrainian capability. Ukraine is now well-supported by the West to continue effective defence.
But continuing resistance is not the same as winning the war, if by winning we mean inflicting sufficient military defeat to force Russia to retreat and to stop attacking civilians. Ukraine cannot win the war with the current level of Western support.
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What China’s leaders are discussing behind closed doors
China’s political leaders have been extremely reluctant to disclose what was discussed at last week’s meeting - which suggests that the topics are considered to be extremely sensitive.
Karen Maley Columnist
Apr 3, 2022 – 6.16pm
It was an astonishingly brief release, even by the tight-lipped standards of China’s political leadership.
At only 114 characters, the statement released after important meeting of the Communist Party Politburo last week was by far the shortest in President Xi Jinping’s decade-long rule. It was also the first time that there was no mention of the specific topics that were discussed.
Now, it’s clear that the world’s second largest economy is confronting some huge challenges. And that this is politically sensitive time.
After all, Xi, who is China’s most powerful leader in decades, is anxious to avoid disruption ahead of an important Communist Party Congress late this year when he is expected to secure another term in power.
But the extraordinary brevity of last week’s statement signposts that the 25-member Politburo not only discussed issues that are important to China, but that these matters are so highly sensitive that China’s leadership is reluctant to even acknowledge their concerns.
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Macron confronts Europe’s past and present
After a presidency rocked by crises over controversial economic reforms and his handling of the pandemic, the Ukrainian war has only strengthened his incumbency.
James Curran Columnist
Apr 3, 2022 – 1.13pm
French President Emmanuel Macron, who appears headed for a second five-year stint in the Elysée, could scarcely have believed that both periods in office would commence by confronting the past and present ruins of European conflict.
Back in 2017, Macron rendered homage to the horrific loss of life in a tiny French town during World War II. A likely second term will begin as he surveys the rubble of Ukrainian cities caused by the devastating Russian invasion.
When his presidency was barely a month old, Macron went to Oradour Sur Glane, near Limoges, to honour the 642 men, women and children slaughtered by an SS Division on June 10, 1944. The village was never rebuilt – a permanent, haunting reminder of Nazi occupation.
“We can allow indignation to well up within us here,” Macron said. The tragedy remained a “scar on the face of France”. And he acknowledged the cries of successive generations in Europe following 1945: “Never again”.
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Zelensky accuses retreating Russian troops of booby-trapping bodies
David L. Stern, Joel Achenbach, Robyn Dixon and Adela Suliman
Apr 3, 2022 – 1.49pm
Mukacheva, Ukraine | Ukrainian troops recaptured territory around Kyiv as Russian forces pulled back from towns they had seized in the opening days of the war and left in their wake scenes of destruction and horror, including the abandoned bodies of dead civilians.
Journalists entered the town of Bucha, a suburb north-west of the capital, and saw corpses strewn on the streets. Video posted to social media and verified by The Washington Post showed what appeared to be at least nine dead, including one child.
Bucha’s mayor, Anatoly Fedoruk, said about 270 residents had been buried in two mass graves. He estimated 40 people were lying dead in the streets. Some had been bound and executed – shot in the back of the head, he said.
The mayor added that officials are worried that the bodies could be booby-trapped with explosives. In a video address to Ukrainians early on Saturday (Sunday AEST), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia was “mining the whole territory”.
“They are mining homes, mining equipment, even the bodies of people who were killed,” he said. The claims could not be immediately verified.
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‘A scene from a horror movie’: Ukraine accuses Russia of massacre
By Simon Gardner
Updated April 4, 2022 — 10.17amfirst published at 3.36am
WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT
Bucha: Ukraine has accused Russian forces of carrying out a massacre in the town of Bucha, while Western nations reacted to images of dead bodies there with calls for new sanctions against Moscow.
The images from Bucha came after Ukraine said its forces had reclaimed control of the whole Kyiv region and liberated towns from Russian troops.
They prompted outrage in Ukraine and abroad, adding to pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin by increasing the likelihood of further Western sanctions. Western nations have already sought to isolate Russia economically and punish it for the invasion, which began on February 24.
“Bucha massacre was deliberate,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.
Bodies with bound hands, close-range gunshot wounds and signs of torture lay scattered in the city on the outskirts of Kyiv after Russian soldiers withdrew from the area. Ukrainian authorities accused the departing forces on Sunday of committing war crimes and leaving behind a “scene from a horror movie.”
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This could be the week that the Ukraine war turned against Putin
By Justin Huggler
April 3, 2022 — 12.47pm
Berlin: This week may go down as the one in which Russia started losing its war on Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin’s forces suffered a series of shocking reverses on the battlefield. For the first time, Ukraine recaptured more territory than it lost every day for an entire week, pushing Russian forces 32 kilometres back from Kyiv.
Russia’s famed 4th Guards Tank Division, noted for its victories at Stalingrad and Berlin, was routed in a small, little-known Ukrainian town called Trostyanets.
By the end of the week, Ukraine appeared to have taken the war to Russia as Kyiv refused to confirm whether it had ordered a cross-border helicopter raid that left an oil depot burning out of control in the Russian city of Belgorod.
In Moscow, Putin seemed ever more isolated, as Western intelligence officials claimed that he was being told lies by ministers and generals too scared to tell him the truth.
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West must do more to help heroic Ukraine
12:00AM April 4, 2022
Every time he has addressed a national parliament, the Ukrainian leader has made a request. Only one country has immediately delivered: that’s Australia, which has now slapped punitive tariffs on all Russian imports and is preparing swiftly to dispatch Bushmaster armoured vehicles to Ukraine’s heroic defenders after Volodymyr Zelensky’s plea on Friday. While Britain also has been very forward-leaning in its help to Ukraine, frankly, it was pretty timid of the US to veto the Ukrainians’ request for MIG jets from Poland (that the Poles wanted to meet) and Australia’s more robust response should prompt a rethink.
It’s right that Australia should be as ready as any to succour Ukraine in its fight to survive because Ukraine could not have been better to us when we needed help. We should never forget that the Russian dictator’s war of subjugation actually began in 2014; and the 38 Australians who died when a Russian missile destroyed Flight MH17 were among Vladimir Putin’s early victims. When my government moved to secure the site and to recover the bodies, the Ukrainian parliament unanimously approved the presence of armed Australian military personnel on Ukrainian territory.
In the end, this task was accomplished without the need to dispatch the thousand troops that might have been necessary (as part of a joint expedition with the Dutch) but I will always be grateful to the Ukrainians for their forthright response to this never-to-be-forgotten atrocity. In recognition of their help, my government provided winter clothing to the Ukrainian army and invited Ukrainian officers to join our staff college.
There’s no doubt that the Ukrainian people and armed forces have excelled themselves in this conflict. Under attack from a military superpower, they’ve so far more than held their own; inflicting very heavy casualties and taking a punishing toll on the invaders’ tanks and aircraft. The Ukrainians are now regaining ground around Kyiv and even seem to have mounted one highly successful cross-border sortie. Bizarrely, the Russians have denounced this as interference with their sovereignty.
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Putin is losing Ukraine’s war of the mind
A military strategy based on fooling, baffling and bullying cities into backing Russia has been tested in reality and failed.
By Ben Macintyre
From The Times
April 3, 2022
Ancient Chinese rulers turned to the philosopher Sun Tzu for military guidance. Carl von Clausewitz developed a theory of war that influenced Prussian military thinking for a century. Hitler had Erwin Rommel, the “Desert Fox”, and Churchill had Monty – military strategists whose ideas shaped the course of conflict.
And President Vladimir Putin has General Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of Russia’s armed forces, deputy defence minister, and a veteran of the Chechen and Syrian wars. A 66-year-old bulldog-faced Tatar from Kazan, Gerasimov was pictured sitting alongside Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu when Putin issued his campaign orders. Just a few weeks earlier, Gerasimov had publicly declared: “Information about Russia’s alleged impending invasion of Ukraine is a lie.”
Gerasimov (not to be confused with Vitaly Gerasimov, one of several Russian generals reportedly killed in the conflict) is widely credited with planning and executing the invasion of Ukraine.
He may look like a nightclub bouncer poured into cardboard uniform, but he is Russia’s foremost military strategist.
Just as the “Brezhnev doctrine” led Russia to war in Afghanistan, now the so-called Gerasimov doctrine underpins Putin’s war in Ukraine.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/03/atrocities-are-the-russian-way-of-war
Opinion: The atrocities in Bucha are no aberration. This is the Russian way of war.
By Max Boot
Columnist
Today at 2:12 p.m. EDT
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin got one thing right: His invasion did lead to Ukrainian civilians greeting troops as liberators. Only they weren’t greeting Russian troops. They were greeting the Ukrainian troops who in recent days have entered villages around Kyiv that had been occupied by the Russians for more than a month.
The Ukrainian government proclaimed on Saturday that all of the Kyiv administrative region had been freed of Russian control. It was as if the Free French forces were entering Paris in 1944.
The reason civilians were so jubilant to be liberated has become grimly apparent. Sickening pictures from Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, show the corpses of residents who had been bound, shot and left by the side of the road. The mayor of Bucha said that some 270 people had been found in two mass graves and another 40 were lying dead in the streets.
The atrocities in Bucha were no aberration. There is ample evidence of other war crimes by Russian troops across Ukraine. Human Rights Watch has documented Russian troops committing rape, summary execution and looting.
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Viktor Orban’s victory is a triumph for illiberal nationalism
After an unfair fight, the opposition parties start to blame each other
Apr 4th 2022
SUPPORTERS OF THE coalition of parties trying to unseat Viktor Orban, Hungary’s reactionary populist prime minister, had hoped that the polls showing them trailing by six percentage points were wrong. It turned out they were wrong, but in the other direction. As the results came in on the night of April 3rd, Mr Orban’s governing Fidesz party won 53% of the vote, while the opposition United for Hungary alliance took just 35%. Though a few districts remain too close to call, Fidesz looks set to increase its majority in parliament, retaining the two-thirds supermajority needed to alter the constitution. For the opposition’s candidate, Peter Marki-Zay, it was a devastating failure. Mr Orban has won a fourth consecutive term and looks stronger than ever. He is already the longest-serving leader in the EU.
The prime minister immediately claimed the win as a vindication for his ideology of illiberal nationalism. Since taking office in 2010 he has changed the constitution to benefit his party, nobbled the courts and gradually seized control over most of the media. The European Union has often chided his government for violating the rule of law, wholesale corruption and the misuse of EU funds. Mr Orban uses this to cast himself as the underdog, defending his people against EU bureaucrats, the international left and George Soros, a Hungarian-born Jewish philanthropist whom he accuses of plotting to flood Hungary with Muslim immigrants. “We have such a victory it can be seen from the moon, but it's sure that it can be seen from Brussels,” Mr Orban crowed after the result was announced.
Also on his list of enemies is Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president. Mr Orban has a long-standing friendly relationship with Vladimir Putin and enjoys a preferential gas deal with Russia. Hungary has been the most reluctant member of the NATO and EU coalition in the war in Ukraine, adamantly opposing sanctions against Russian energy exports. In recent weeks Mr Zelensky has demanded that Mr Orban decide which side he is on. During the campaign Mr Marki-Zay attacked the prime minister as a lackey of Mr Putin. Mr Orban retorted that the opposition would drag Hungary into the war (which they deny). Many voters, especially those who see only pro-Orban media, found this argument both alarming and persuasive.
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Pro-Putin leader’s victory sends a warning to the West
The Hungarian prime minister has long courted fellow strongman figures like Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. But now it’s time for the European Union to act.
Gideon Rachman Columnist
Updated Apr 5, 2022 – 9.50am, first published at 9.43am
Viktor Orban’s election victory in Hungary will be greeted with delight in Moscow, Beijing and Mar-a-Lago - and with dismay in Brussels and Kyiv.
Ahead of Sunday’s Hungarian parliamentary elections, Volodymyr Zelensky, the embattled Ukrainian president, called Orban “virtually the only [leader] in Europe to openly support [Vladimir] Putin”. The Hungarian prime minister took his revenge immediately after claiming victory, singling out Zelensky as one of the “opponents” he had defeated - alongside Brussels bureaucrats and the international media.
Even allowing for election night euphoria, Orban’s taunting of Zelensky - on the day that brutal apparent war crimes committed against Ukrainian civilians were uncovered - was grotesque. But it should not have been surprising. In the past, Orban has praised Putin for “making Russia great again”. He held a jovial meeting with the Russian president in Moscow, shortly before the invasion of Ukraine.
Donald Trump is another Orban fan. Earlier this year, the former US president endorsed the Hungarian leader’s re-election bid, calling him a “strong leader” who has done a “powerful and wonderful job”.
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Stocks’ mysterious strength should not stop investors acting
Those who are heavily exposed should make the most of the strength of equities and take some chips off the table.
Mohamed El-Erian Contributor
Updated Apr 4, 2022 – 4.22pm, first published at 4.19pm
The way US stocks have navigated the current phase of macroeconomic and interest rate volatility reminds me of the recurrent “mystery” line in Shakespeare in Love, one of my all-time favourite films.
Explaining his business to a financial backer, the head of a theatre group notes that “the natural condition is one of insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster”. When asked, “so, what do we do?” he responds: “Nothing. Strangely enough. It all turns out well.” And when pressed how, he says: “I don’t know, it’s a mystery.”
In the last four weeks, stocks have recovered well not only from the initial hit following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but also from the sell-off recorded earlier in the new year.
They brushed aside the likelihood of stagflation for the global economy on the back of another round of supply disruptions, higher commodity prices and – starting in Europe – an erosion in consumer and business confidence. They paid little – if not, no attention – to concerns about a growing risk of recession.
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/while-putin-s-hurricane-rages-xi-calculates-20220404-p5aajk.html
While Putin’s hurricane rages, Xi calculates
Political and international editor
April 5, 2022 — 5.00am
Russia is like a hurricane when it moves to take territory, striking hard and fast and directly, while China is like climate change – it moves carefully, gradually, systematically to take over an entire ecosystem.
You can see it today. Russia smashes its way into Ukraine, butchering everyone in its path as the world recoils in horror.
In contrast, China continues its creeping takeover of international territories across a vast swathe of the Earth to Australia’s north, east and south. With few people paying attention.
Russia already is paying a heavy price for its wanton violence and still its success is not assured. China, on the other hand, is winning on all fronts and paying bargain-basement prices.
“China has been more subversive and less obvious than Russia,” observes the New Zealand sinologist, Anne-Marie Brady of Canterbury University.
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The West must wage total economic war against Putin
By Ben Marlow
April 4, 2022 — 11.02am
Russia’s pledge to reduce military activity around Kyiv, as part of what it calls “de-escalation”, has rightly been met with scepticism in the West, though sadly not nearly enough.
The move has prompted talk at the highest levels about whether sanctions should be lifted if Russia retreats and commits to peace. The possibility of sanctions removal was first raised by Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, a fortnight ago, on the basis that Vladimir Putin agreed to an “irreversible” withdrawal from Ukraine.
Then in an interview last weekend, Britain’s foreign secretary Liz Truss said the West could relent if Moscow withdraws and commits to “no further aggression”. This is naive in the extreme and suggests America, Europe and Britain have learnt nothing about Russia’s psychotic regime. Have they forgotten what two decades of appeasement achieved?
Putin played the West for fools right up until the invasion. Even now, Emmanuel Macron continues to pander to Russia’s warmongering leader with zero to show for nearly 20 phone conversations and a little tête-à -tête in Moscow.
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Xi Jinping’s ‘common prosperity’ was everywhere, but China backed off
By Stella Yifan Xie
The Wall Street Journal
6:46PM April 4, 2022
China’s apparent retreat from one of its most important policy initiatives is showing how hard it is to remake the country’s economy and reduce inequality nearly a decade into Xi Jinping’s rule.
For most of last year, Mr Xi trumpeted a signature program known as “common prosperity” aimed at redistributing more of China’s wealth, amid concerns that elites had benefited disproportionately from the country’s economic boom. The program underpinned many of Mr Xi’s policy drives, including a clampdown on technology companies that were seen as exploiting their market power to boost profits.
But while some aspects of the tech crackdown continue, other parts of the program have fizzled, as China shifts its priorities toward shoring up slowing growth.
Last year, the phrase “common prosperity” seemed to be everywhere, in state media, schools, and speeches by Mr Xi and others. A historic resolution passed during Communist Party meetings in the fall, which puts him on equal footing with Mao Zedong, used the phrase eight times.
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What to do with Russian war criminals: Never. Stop. Hunting. Them.
Military leader and strategist
April 5, 2022 — 4.17pm
In the past 24 hours, President Zelensky visited the township of Bucha. Surrounded by a cordon of security, he had come to witness first-hand the handiwork of the Russian butchers who had recently turned this quiet corner of Ukraine into a 21st century killing ground. He said afterwards that “this breaks the heart of every Ukrainian. It breaks my heart”.
Russia has launched a full counter offensive to discredit the reports of journalists, and the Ukrainian government. Over the weekend, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sought to debunk the Bucha massacre. Its statement on April 4 noted that: “All the photos and videos published by the Kiev regime in Bucha are just another provocation.”
Satellite images tell the true story. Be assured, these are not the actions of a few bad apples. It is the outcome of a systemic, command-initiated program to terrorise Ukrainians, as Russia did with Syrians and Chechens before, into political accommodations. And it is the inevitable outcome of the brutal targeting of Ukrainian cities by Russian commanders. Russian military leaders have permitted a culture of indiscriminate killing to flourish. They must bear full responsibility for the killings at Bucha and other cities and towns across Ukraine.
What happens now?
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Russia’s middle class ‘hostages’ feel the squeeze of Western sanctions
By Robyn Dixon
April 5, 2022 — 7.00pm
Riga, Latvia: It did not take long for Russian businessman Kirill Kukkoyev to feel like he had been taken hostage by the events unfolding in neighbouring Ukraine. That moment came eight days after Russia’s invasion when Swedish furniture giant Ikea announced it would halt trading in Russia the next day.
Kukkoyev had built an entire business renovating high-end end apartments in St Petersburg with Ikea fittings. He spent that final day sweating and trying to get in all his orders, hitting the payment button for the last time at two minutes to midnight, he recalled.
Then he applied to register the trademark Idea, copying Ikea’s trademark logo.
Kukkoyev’s struggles are one man’s woes in a sea of troubles as Russia faces not just international sanctions but the impact of Western businesses shunning the country. Thousands of small and medium businesses – including restaurants, bars, beauty salons, consultancies, transportation, logistics companies and others – face similar problems.
As real wages plummet, consumption falls, inflation escalates and supply chain problems choke the economy, the crisis is devastating private businesses.
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The US will be the ultimate winner of Ukraine’s crisis
America stands to gain in stature and influence in Europe, Asia and the court of world opinion thanks to Vladimir Putin.
Janan Ganesh Contributor
Apr 6, 2022 – 9.34am
From 2026, if all goes well, liquefied natural gas will arrive via tanker on the shores of northern Germany, will pour into cryogenic storage vats set to minus 160C, and then “re-gasify” before coursing through the grid in place of Russian imports.
Germany has no LNG terminal at present. Within 72 hours of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it expedited the construction of two. Of the exporters that stand to profit, the US is nearer than Australia and, unlike Qatar, won’t leave Berlin exposed to another erratic autocracy.
It is a tasteless thing to argue, and perhaps even to think, but America will be the ultimate “winner” of the Ukrainian crisis. Eight months after its exit from Afghanistan suggested imperial decline, the nation’s strategic prospects are changing in ways that are unrecognisably better.
The “arsenal of democracy” in the last century might be its fuel source in this one.
And those exports are the least of it. If Germany honours its recent pledge to splurge on defence, then the US should be able to share more of NATO’s financial and logistical burden.
A Europe that is more tethered to America and at the same time less of a drain on it: no Kissinger could have schemed what the Kremlin is poised to achieve through accident. Far from ending the US turn to Asia, the war in Ukraine might be the event that enables it.
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China says Australia building a NATO replica in the Asia Pacific
Michael Smith North Asia correspondent
Apr 7, 2022 – 10.07am
Tokyo | Beijing has accused Australia, the United States and United Kingdom of seeking to replicate NATO in the Asia-Pacific after the three allies announced they will jointly develop hypersonic missiles to keep up with China and Russia.
A trilateral agreement on hypersonics was signed under AUKUS on Wednesday, with the three countries also adding electronic warfare to the list of technologies.
China’s Foreign Ministry said the move would intensify an arms race and undermine peace in the Asia-Pacific.
“Its (AUKUS’) ultimate goal is to build a NATO replica in the Asia-Pacific to serve the US hegemony and self-interests through and through. Asia-Pacific countries will resolutely say no to it for sure,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman said when asked about the agreement.
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Fed expected to raise rates 50bps at next meetings
Matthew Cranston United States correspondent
Apr 7, 2022 – 4.18am
Washington| Economists are now forecasting multiple 0.50 percentage point rate rises at the Federal Reserve’s next meetings, after central bank officials’ use of strong language on the need to curb inflation.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 16 meeting also indicated the bank was now planning to reduce its massive bond holdings at a maximum pace of $US95 billion ($126 billion) a month.
The Fed’s plan to tighten credit across the economy by raising rates is part of stepped up efforts to cool the highest inflation rate in 40 years.
Financial markets have priced in ten 0.25 percentage point rate rises this year and had largely expected the speed and size of the Fed’s balance sheet tightening known as Quantitative Tightening.
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Brainard’s ‘get inflation down’ speech shocks investors
Lael Brainard, a leading US central bank dove, has worried investors by arguing that US inflation is “much too high” and needs to be brought down to the 2 per cent target.
Karen Maley Columnist
Apr 6, 2022 – 4.19pm
Investors are again scurrying for the exits as leading central bankers emphasise that their top priority has switched to controlling persistent inflation, rather than fostering a buoyant jobs market.
The yield on US 10-year bonds – which serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs around the world – has now climbed to 2.61 per cent, the highest level since March 2019. (Yields rise as bond prices fall.)
The latest sell-off was sparked by comments from Lael Brainard, a governor of the US Federal Reserve Bank, who is awaiting US Senate confirmation to become the bank’s next vice-chair.
Brainard has long been considered a Fed “dove” who has favoured low interest rates to combat feeble inflation, and who has staunchly opposed winding back financial regulations.
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A full energy ban against Russia is now unstoppable
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
April 6, 2022 — 11.06am
The dam has broken after the Bucha massacre. European public opinion will not tolerate the continued funding of Vladimir Putin’s war machine with purchases of oil, gas and coal. Nor will German public opinion.
An energy embargo has become unstoppable as systematic atrocities against civilians come to light. The West’s phoney war against Russia is giving way to a harsher phase, entailing real sacrifices and necessary risks to uphold our liberal principles.
Eyewash sanctions against oligarchs and the seizure of yachts will no longer suffice. This has unpredictable consequences for the global economy. Equity markets have not yet priced in the political escalation.
The fifth package of EU sanctions this week will doubtless be another bad compromise. Ukraine’s foreign minister has already seen the draft and deemed it “insufficient”.
France’s Emmanuel Macron has for the first time talked of curbs on Russian coal and oil - though not gas - but the devil is in the detail and in the timing. Germany and Austria are still blocking action, arguing rather feebly that a fuel shock endangers social cohesion within the democracies.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/will-putin-kill-the-global-economy-20220407-p5abhb.html
Will Putin kill the global economy?
By Paul Krugman
April 7, 2022 — 11.02am
Economic commentators always reach for historical analogies, and with good reason. For example, those who had studied past banking crises had a much better grasp of what was happening in 2008 than those who hadn’t. But there’s always the question of which analogy to choose.
Right now, many people are harking back to the stagflation of the 1970s. I’ve argued at some length that this is a bad parallel; our current inflation looks very different from what we saw in 1979-80, and probably much easier to end.
There are, however, good reasons to worry that we’re seeing an economic replay of 1914 — the year that ended what some economists call the first wave of globalisation, a vast expansion of world trade made possible by railroads, steamships and telegraph cables.
In his 1919 book The Economic Consequences of the Peace, John Maynard Keynes — who would later teach us how to understand depressions — lamented what he saw, correctly, as the end of an era, “an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man.” On the eve of World War I, he wrote, an inhabitant of London could easily order “the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep.”
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The Fed has put the US on a road to recession
By Bill Dudley
April 7, 2022 — 7.30am
US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has made two ambitious assertions about the central bank’s management of the economy. In his latest news conference in mid-March, he said that the Fed’s new, more inflation-tolerant monetary policy framework bears no responsibility for the recent sharp surge in consumer prices. Then, the following week, he cited three historical examples - the tightening cycles of 1964, 1984 and 1993 - as evidence that the Fed can achieve a “soft landing,” slowing growth and curbing inflation without precipitating a recession.
I disagree with both. The Fed’s application of its framework has left it behind the curve in controlling inflation. This, in turn, has made a hard landing virtually inevitable.
Under the monetary policy framework, introduced in August 2020, the Fed is supposed to target average annual inflation of 2 per cent, which means allowing for occasional overshoots to make up for previous shortfalls. Yet in the current recovery, the central bank translated this into a more specific commitment. It would not start to remove monetary stimulus until three conditions had been met: inflation had reached 2 per cent; inflation was expected to persist for some time; and employment had reached the maximum level consistent with the 2 per cent inflation target.
This was a mistake. As I wrote last June:
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Holding Putin to account for war crimes
12:00AM April 7, 2022
Is Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal? That question increasingly is being asked as the Ukraine war continues, reaching a crescendo this week following the images of bodies on the streets of Bucha.
Allegations of war crimes become part of the political and public debate during wars. One immediate legal priority is to investigate and gather evidence for any war crimes prosecutions.
Australia is supporting those efforts by dispatching investigators to Ukraine. Gathering evidence needs to be methodical and widespread. Given the ongoing conflict, it also can be dangerous.
The next step will be a focus on accountability and legal options to make Russia and Putin responsible for their actions. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be one of the sternest tests for the post-World War II international security system, which has survived the Cold War, Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait, the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US and the 2003 US-led military intervention in Iraq.
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Chomsky: ‘We’re approaching the most dangerous point in human history’
One of the world’s most cited living scholars, now 93, says the climate catastrophe and the threat of nuclear war leave him more worried than ever.
George Eaton
Apr 7, 2022 – 12.26pm
It was as a 10-year-old that Noam Chomsky first confronted the perils of foreign aggression. “The first article that I wrote for the elementary school newspaper was on the fall of Barcelona [in 1939],” Chomsky recalls when we speak via video call. It charted the advance of the “grim cloud of fascism” across the world.
“I haven’t changed my opinion since, it’s just gotten worse,” he sardonically remarks. Due to the climate crisis and the threat of nuclear war, Chomsky tells me, “we’re approaching the most dangerous point in human history … We are now facing the prospect of destruction of organised human life on Earth.”
At the age of 93, as perhaps the world’s most cited living scholar, Chomsky could be forgiven for retreating from the public sphere. But in an era of permanent crisis, he retains the moral fervour of a young radical – more preoccupied with the world’s mortality than his own. He is a walking advertisement for Dylan Thomas’s injunction, “Do not go gentle into that good night” – or for what Chomsky calls “the bicycle theory: if you keep going fast, you don’t fall off”.
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/putin-s-war-brings-historic-global-split-20220407-p5abli
Putin’s war brings historic global split
As the West gears up in its battle for democracy over autocracy, uncertainties lie ahead.
Edward Luce Columnist
Apr 7, 2022 – 12.16pm
Milestones are not always the key moment of change, but the point at which history says it can no longer be ignored. February 24 was the date Russia invaded Ukraine. It will also mark the point at which the world undeniably split into blocks. Whatever the outcome of Vladimir Putin’s war, geopolitics is now divided between the West and a Chinese-Russian Eurasia. Most of the rest, including India, the world’s largest swing state, are in between.
In a calmer world, the opposing blocks would settle into a Cold War-type coexistence. Such stability could take time to emerge. The short term would still be fraught with uncertainty. The questions now being asked are pertinent to a big shift. Are we returning to a nuclear age? Is globalisation going into reverse? Is climate change co-operation now off the menu? Can democracy outcompete autocracy? Until recently, most Westerners thought they knew the answers.
It is fitting that Putin, whose loathing of the West has become his driving motive, has been the one to bring down the curtain. It is also ironic. Western strategists have tended to write off Russia as a declining power. But Russia’s waning status has put it in more of a hurry than China, which until recently was content to bide its time. The most obvious question is which of the two will set the pace.
The answer from now on may be neither. To the surprise of many, Joe Biden has in recent weeks turned into a Ronald Reagan-style crusader for global freedom. Biden’s Warsaw speech was noted for his unscripted implication that Putin should go. But his formal remarks were just as significant. We are in a global battle between autocracy and democracy, Biden said. “We must steel ourselves for a long fight ahead.”
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https://www.afr.com/world/europe/how-the-west-can-accelerate-putin-s-exit-20220406-p5abb8
How the West can accelerate Putin’s exit
The Russian President is not going to slink back into the corner and leave the world alone. The scenes of mass murder in Bucha require the West to take a harder stance.
Bret Stephens Contributor
Apr 7, 2022 – 8.00am
Horrific scenes of mass murder on the outskirts of Kyiv should appal everybody and surprise nobody.
The brutalisation of civilians has been the Putin regime’s calling card since its inception – from the Moscow apartment bombings of 1999, where the weight of circumstantial evidence points the finger at Vladimir Putin and his security service henchmen, to the murders of Anna Politkovskaya, Alexander Litvinenko, Sergei Magnitsky and Boris Nemtsov to Russia’s atrocities in Grozny, eastern Ukraine, Aleppo and now Bucha.
Mostly, the world has found it easier to make excuses to get along with Putin than to work against him. One example: In 2015, Germany got about 35 per cent of its natural gas from Russia. In 2021, the figure had jumped to 55 per cent. Berlin is now a major diplomatic obstacle to imposing stiffer sanctions on Russia, and Germany continues to buy Russian gas, oil and coal, to the tune of $US2 billion a month.
To put this in simplified but accurate terms, Germany – having fiercely resisted years of international pressure to lessen its dependence on Russian gas – finds itself in the position of funding the Russian state. That is money that helps keep the rouble afloat and the Kremlin’s war machine going. Surely, this can’t be the role that Berlin wishes to play.
But this requires a clear articulation of Western aims in this crisis. Do we want peace now – or at least as soon as possible? Do we want Ukraine to achieve an unmistakable victory over Russia? And do we want Putin to go?
The advantage of peace now – a cease-fire followed by a negotiated settlement – is that it would end both the immediate fighting and the risk of a wider war. These are not small things, and the temptation to seize them will be great, especially if Putin hints at an escalation that terrifies the West.
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https://www.afr.com/world/asia/shanghai-tests-the-limits-of-xi-s-zero-covid-policy-20220405-p5aayh
Shanghai tests the limits of Xi’s zero-COVID policy
The city of 26 million is dealing with rising cases of omicron but there are signs of growing public anger at the strict and costly lockdown.
Thomas Hale, Andy Lin and Primrose Riordan
Apr 7, 2022 – 8.00am
In late March, as Shanghai residents began to worry that rising coronavirus infections would lead the city into its first mass lockdown, authorities turned to social media to calm the situation.
“Please do not believe or spread rumours,” the city government wrote on China’s Weibo platform on March 23, where posts warning that people would imminently be confined to their homes had already spurred panic buying of food.
Just days later, the outline of the rumours – if not the fine details – turned out to be true. In response to thousands of cases, China’s largest city last Sunday unveiled the most significant lockdown measures in the country since the sealing off of Wuhan when COVID-19 first emerged more than two years ago.
The lockdown of its leading financial centre – which initially cut Shanghai in two before eventually confining everyone to their homes by the weekend – was a startling refutation of any sense that China was beginning to relax its approach to the virus.
President Xi Jinping in mid-March emphasised the need to minimise the impact of the pandemic on the economy. His comments had been interpreted by some as a signal that Beijing was preparing to ease up on its hardline zero-COVID policy.
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Ketanji Brown Jackson confirmed for US Supreme Court seat
Lawrence Hurley, Andrew Chung and Richard Cowan
Apr 8, 2022 – 9.58am
Washington | Ketanji Brown Jackson was confirmed by the Senate on Thursday (Friday AEST) as the first African American woman to serve on the Supreme Court in a milestone for the United States and a victory for President Joe Biden, who made good on a campaign promise as he seeks to infuse the federal judiciary with a broader range of backgrounds.
The vote to confirm the 51-year-old federal appellate judge to a lifetime job on the nation’s top judicial body was 53-47, with three Republicans joining Mr Biden’s fellow Democrats. A simple majority was needed, as Ms Jackson overcame Republican opposition in a Supreme Court confirmation process that remains fiercely partisan.
Ms Jackson will take 83-year-old Stephen Breyer’s place on the liberal bloc of a court with an increasingly assertive 6-3 conservative majority. Mr Breyer is due to serve until the court’s current term ends - usually in late June - and Ms Jackson would be formally sworn in after that. Ms Jackson served early in her career as a Supreme Court clerk for Mr Breyer.
Mr Biden hosted Ms Jackson at the White House to watch the vote on television, posting on Twitter a selfie he took of them smiling after Senate acted.
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After Ukraine invasion, it’s time for the US to get serious about political warfare against Russia
By Tim Weiner
April 8, 2022 — 6.44am
Washington: The United States may not be in the business of regime change right now. It can still help turn the political tide against Vladimir Putin in Russia.
The key is piercing the Russian president’s iron curtain with the truth about the war in Ukraine. It’s a hard target. But there are ways to do it, as the CIA began to discover 40 years ago, in a small, skillful and wildly successful covert operation in Poland.
Back then, the Kremlin and its minions in Warsaw had imposed martial law to crush the burgeoning Solidarity movement. Solidarity started as a labor coalition, but it became an underground resistance organisation, its leaders in jail or in hiding.
The CIA created a program code-named HELPFUL. It smuggled the tools of a free press into Solidarity’s hands. At first it was paper, ink, printing presses, Xerox copiers and fax machines. Then it was equipment for clandestine radio stations, funded in part by the AFL-CIO, which worked in harmony with the CIA. Then came sophisticated technology that let the resistance break into state-run news programs with a banner proclaiming “Solidarity Lives.”
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Indonesians may be wary of Australia but they trust China even less - and we should embrace their independent spirit
By Ben Bland and Natasha Kassam
April 8, 2022 — 5.00am
Australians have traditionally had low levels of trust in Indonesia, the world’s third largest democracy and our close neighbour. The new Lowy Institute Indonesia Poll, surveying 3000 Indonesians nationwide, suggests the feeling is mutual.
Trust in Australia and the United States has fallen sharply since our last poll in Indonesia a decade ago. A third of Indonesians see Australia as a security threat, though many more express concern about China.
Most Indonesians have not heard of Australian security initiatives such as AUKUS and the Quad. However, they do see Australia as an important aid and security partner, and as a significant destination for travel and study.
As Australia, the US, China and many other outside powers seek to woo Indonesia, it is important to listen to how Indonesians see their place in the world.
What emerges from the survey is that Indonesians do not look at the world through a bipolar US-China lens, as is the increasing trend in Australia and the wider Western world. This ought not to come as a surprise. Diplomatic talk in Canberra of Indonesia’s strategic convergence with Australia seems to be based on hope more than experience, given Jakarta’s deep-seated tradition of non-alignment.
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By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Colonel Patrick Sullivan explains why Russia’s army commits atrocities
Russian brutality is not necessarily a sign of desperation
Apr 8th 2022 (Updated Apr 8th 2022)
THE INCREASING brutality of Russia’s armed forces in Ukraine has prompted alarm in the West. That is understandable. But keep a sobering historical lesson in mind: brutality can be militarily effective. As such, it is premature, if not a mistake outright, to dismiss Russian savagery as indicative of operational desperation—however upsetting such an idea might be. It is a savagery consistent with Russia’s successful military operations in Chechnya and Syria.
I have little doubt that memories of these campaigns influenced Russia’s decision to employ brutal tactics in Ukraine. Viewed strictly through the lens of military usefulness, the tactics support Vladimir Putin’s stated goals for his “special military operation”: to demilitarise Ukraine and to protect Russian speakers in the Donbas region. The tactics are a form of terrorism which, in its simplest definition, is the application of violence against civilians to pursue political aims. In this case, Russia’s tactics may eventually present Ukraine’s political leadership with an impossible choice between concession and genocide.
Just because a tactic works, though, does not mean that a military commander should use it. Assuming there are alternatives, tactics should also strike the right balance between risk, cost and anticipated outcome. In other words, balancing these three considerations should distinguish tactics that are feasible—such as deliberately killing civilians—from those that are acceptable.
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Get Putin: how the president may be held to account
Reports from Mariupol suggest Russian soldiers are collecting bodies and burning them in a mobile crematorium to destroy evidence, but experts say there could be another path to justice.
April 9, 2022
Australia only has to look at the protracted, frustrating and ultimately doomed attempts to hold Russia to account for killing 298 people, 38 of them Australian citizens or residents, in the aftermath of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 disaster to understand what awaits Ukraine’s pursuit of justice for the heinous events that have unfolded across its lands in the past six weeks.
And utter horror it has been, scenes reminiscent of the brutality last seen on the continent in the grisly Balkans conflicts.
In Bucha, a body is twisted and bent, forced into the round confines of a small well. Other men, shot in the back of the head, lie face down in the road, with arms tied behind their backs; arriving Ukrainian forces swerve their tanks to avoid crushing them. And just outside the town are two naked women and a man, their bodies only partially burned from a tyre set alight, perhaps to hide a rape. No one was safe, witnesses said. Early last month a drone captured footage of a man walking a bicycle down Ivano Franko street in the same town and being fired on by a tank as he turned a corner.
On the main road leading into Bucha are broken and crumpled cars, their fleeing passengers slumped and shot: a grandmother, a granddaughter, a mother. A neighbour was shot dead for daring to sit on his front porch. Fleeing in a car or sheltering in a basement was enough for the Russians to respond with unrelenting, lethal force.
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What responsibility do Russians bear for Putin?
GEOFFREY ROBERTSON
12:00AM April 9, 2022
The sickening pictures from Ukraine, in the press and on television, look like Nazi troops have been back in town. But this time the civilised world can only gnash its teeth and accept the refugees.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unlawful aggression demands a new Nuremberg, but he has the UN by the throat – a superpower vote in the Security Council that permits him to veto the action it has a duty to take to keep international peace. Unless Australia and like-minded countries step up, this will be the beginning of the end of the world order agreed after World War II.
Without any doubt, Putin is personally guilty and his nation is liable for the crime of aggression, which entered the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court as recently as 2017. It simply means invading an independent country without the excuse of acting in self-defence, and no one could believe that Ukraine was about to invade Russia.
But it only can apply to states that have signed up to the ICC charter, and those that are likely to commit aggression – Russia, China and the US – for that reason do not. They are immune from prosecution and have a veto to enforce that immunity. The only superpowers that can be hauled up for the crime of aggression are Britain and France. But then there are war crimes, such as the killing of civilians or torture of prisoners, which have been prosecuted for hundreds of years. Ukraine has signed up to the ICC, so that international court may prosecute Russian soldiers and their commanders – including the supreme commander, Putin.
He may not have ordered the particular killings of civilians tied up and shot through the back of the head, but under article 28 of the court’s charter he might be prosecuted for the crime if he took no steps to investigate and punish its perpetrators.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
