Quote Of The Year

Timeless Quotes - Sadly The Late Paul Shetler - "Its not Your Health Record it's a Government Record Of Your Health Information"

or

H. L. Mencken - "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."

Thursday, February 06, 2025

Given His Influence On Our Current World This is Worth Reading…

This appeared last week:

Bill Gates’ memoir Source Code reveals how a boy genius conquered the world

Bill Gates’ memoir Source Code delves deeply into his childhood with an undiagnosed gift, as he seeks to explain (and perhaps understand) his own, unique operating system.

Caroline Overington

12:00AM February 01, 2025.

Updated 8:52AM February 01, 2025

Bill Gates has written a memoir in which he says he would probably be ­diagnosed with autism were he a kid in school today.

Looking back, he can see how fidgety in class he was. He remembers how he liked to be left alone to nut out knotty problems. Other kids may have dipped excitedly into the Encyclopedia Britannica; by the age of nine, the young Bill Gates had read through every volume, A to Z. He knew the different heights of all the world’s penguins, and could talk about that for hours.

“And I had that rocking habit,” he writes, which he used to soothe himself.

“But, you know, no terms (like autism) were applied in those days,” says Gates, in a Zoom ­interview with Inquirer ahead of the launch of his book, and while many adults are these days seeking a formal diagnosis, he won’t be one of them.

Bill Gates reflects on his new book Source Code: My Beginnings, sharing insights into his childhood, early passion for computers, and the experiences that shaped Microsoft. He discusses his learning style, social challenges, and the possibility of being on the…

“I’m not going to start taking medicine or something,” he says. “That learning style I had, of intense concentration, was very beneficial to me, even though the social things were much more difficult … For kids nowadays, you know, is it better or worse that they are ­diagnosed?”

Gates stops short in his book of describing his autism – if that is indeed what he has – as a gift, or superpower. He thinks it only partly explains his success as a computer programmer who started Microsoft, invented Windows, and became, at least for a time, the world’s richest man. His book, which covers only the first 25 years of his life, delves deeply into all aspects of his childhood, as he seeks to explain (and perhaps understand) the development of his own, unique operating system. In that sense, the title, Source Code, is perfect, and I’m keen to know if Gates himself came up with it.

“No, but I approved it,” he chuckles down the line.

Gates explains the book is “a collaboration” with a former journalist from The Wall Street Journal, who “typed more words than I did”. He told the stories, and says Gates “ended up doing quite a bit of editing because things like my relationship with my mum, nobody else can really get … those are complex topics”.

The result is a surprisingly tender account of an all-American childhood in Seattle, in the wildly optimistic post-war boom years. Gates, 69, was one of three kids born to middle-class parents who encouraged good manners (“don’t put your elbows on the table, don’t eat in front of the TV”). He had his own room in a pleasant neighbourhood, where he could hear the crack of baseball bats through his bedroom window. A keen hiker and boy scout, he liked to play cards as a kid; he clearly remembers the moon landing and the arrival of the Jetsons on TV. That said, his parents recognised quite early “that the rhythm of my mind was different from that of other kids”.

He could go days without speaking, “emerging from my room only for meals and school”. One teacher said that he did not know – or seem to care – how to “put on his own coat”.

His parents sought the help of a psychiatrist, who “just talked to me” about ways of managing school work and friendships. His parents also decided to send him to a small private school – Lakeside, in North Seattle – where he was “given the opportunity at age 13 to play around with a computer funded by a mother’s club rummage sale”.

He was soon obsessed.

“I loved how the computer forced me to think. It demanded that I be logically consistent and pay attention to details. One misplaced comma or semicolon and the thing wouldn’t work,” he says.

He spent hours, days, weeks writing code, without the aid of guidebooks, because there simply weren’t any. So, he was a complete nerd, then? Well, no. Readers of his book may be surprised to hear that he smoked pot as a kid, dropped acid as a college student, and once spent a night in jail. He liked girls, too. There is a lovely moment in the book where he works up the courage to ask a pretty student to the prom. She says she’ll think about it, but ultimately turns him down and goes with a quarterback instead. It makes his heart hurt, but what’s a geeky kid to do? Boys like Bill just weren’t considered boyfriend ­material. His awkwardness with women accompanied him to Harvard. Gates still remembers attending “mixers” in 1973 – the year that Roe v Wade guaranteed the right to abortion, and the start of America’s slow exit from Vietnam – dressed in “an expensive brown leather jacket that I paired with blue velvet bell-bottoms (but) I never had any luck meeting women at these parties … Guys in our wider circle would come back (from the mixers) claiming they had. Almost in unison the rest of us would stammer, “How do you do that?”

Then, in 1987, at a trade fair in New York, Gates met Melinda French, who had just started working for Microsoft, the company he had founded with a former school friend, Paul Allen. They married in 1994, and stayed married for 25 years, raising three children. That marriage has since ended, and the terrain here is tricky, since Gates has acknowledged an affair, and poor behaviour. Given that he had always looked up to his parents, who had such traditional values, does he regret that his own marriage ended?

“Sure,” he says, without hesitation.

I figure it must have occurred to him, at some point: “Hang on, I’m the rock star now. I’m the quarterback. I’m the richest guy in the world…” and maybe that led him into temptation?

He’s not sure about that, but says: “I do remember going to a high school reunion once, and one girl – not the girl I asked out to the prom, but another girl – came up and said, Bill, I didn’t even know you had a personality.

“A lot of the time, when I was going into a cocktail party or something, I would think, ‘Oh, God, will anybody want to talk to me?’ That problem definitely did get solved.”

Gates’s former wife told Vogue magazine a few years ago that she had forgiven Bill for his transgressions, but loathed her husband’s connection to the vile sex predator Jeffrey Epstein, describing him as “evil ­personified”.

Gates has said that he, too, ­regrets the time he spent with ­Epstein. He was a bit lost after the divorce, rattling around his $US200m mansion on Lake Washington (it has 24 bathrooms and six kitchens, which he knows is ridiculous; he says he offsets the enormous footprint of his house and the near constant travel with carbon credits). He now has a new partner, Paula Hurd, who is the widow of the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive, Mark Hurd (they came to Australia last January for the Open tennis) and his relationship with his children seems good.

Of course, his memoir stops well short of any of those developments, but he is likely to get to them, since Source Code is merely the first volume of a planned trilogy.

Why three books?

Like many men approaching the final quarter, Gates is thinking about his legacy, and it’s clear that he hopes to help shape it. You can sense his frustration in that regard. He was a boy genius – his invention, the Windows operating system, changed almost everything about the world in which we live – and he’s ploughed tens of billions of dollars from the colossal fortune he made into reducing poverty and curing malaria in some of the poorest countries on earth. He loves doing it – he has a jet that he can use to travel from one hot spot to another; he has teams of people working on all manner of exciting breakthroughs – and yet, when you go online, you’re likely to find his name linked with thousands of bat-poo crazy conspiracy theories (Gates is trying to depopulate the world by poisoning the water supply; Gates is using the Covid-19 vaccine to sterilise women in poor countries; Gates is not preventing but actively spreading viruses).

Does he try to counter these ­stories when they come up?

“Look, most of them are probably best to ignore,” he says. “They are a few thousand people in some weird group … like, there was a recent one about how I’m trying to change the weather … It’s such a fringe thing that any notice I take of it would actually make it worse. They’d be like, ‘Oh, must be true. He’s denying it’.

“But things that go mainstream, like the Robert Kennedy Jr book (he doesn’t name it, but it’s called The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health, and it has sold more than a million copies in the US) which says I’m making money from vaccines, because it’s been widely read, I do feel the need to speak out and say, ‘hey, this is completely the opposite of the truth’. I saw another story where I was trying to track people’s location by embedding something in the virus. I mean, you just have to laugh at some of it … You really do have to have a sense of humour about it, because it’s so random.”

Does he have a view as to why he, in particular, has become a target of such wild claims?

“Well, if you’re looking for simple explanations, the idea that there’s a weird billionaire who somehow behind the scenes is ­manipulating things is an (easy) story to understand,” he says.

Gates also now finds himself on the wrong side politically, having donated $50m to Kamala Harris in her bid for the White House.

Was he surprised that Donald Trump won?

“I don’t pretend to be good at predictions. I wasn’t sure who would win … and he won,” he says, grinning.

Plenty of other tech bros, like Mark Zuckerberg, who were also once seen as progressive, are now sidling up to Trump, hoping for treats and favours. That’s not really Gates’s style, but does he feel that he will be able to work with the ­returning President?

“I had a chance to meet with him in Mar-a-Lago for a long dinner,” he says, cautiously.

“He’s obviously getting input from tonnes of people.”

He’s not yet sure how Trump will respond to the idea that the US should continue to support the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in its vital work across the globe (they say they have halved the number of deaths from malaria, and from HIV-AIDs, which is nothing to sneeze at).

As for the man who stole Gates’s title as the world’s richest man, Elon Musk … does Gates have any thoughts about him?

“He’s an incredible genius,” Gates says, without hesitation. “And he’s at the centre of the world right now. I’ve talked to him about technology and about philanthropy … I hope he becomes a good philanthropist too.”

Source Code: My Beginnings by Bill Gates (Penguin Books Australia, $55 HB) will be published on February 4.

Here is the link:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/bill-gates-memoir-source-code-reveals-how-a-boy-genius-conquered-the-world/news-story/6af0f2ab547e46a2a7589f5c96b8ceaa

I suspect this may be an autobiography that is worth reading for all sorts of reasons!

David.

Wednesday, February 05, 2025

I Suspect The World Has Moved A Little On Its Axis In The Last Few Weeks…

This appeared a few days ago…

Firms ditch OpenAI for DeepSeek

Danny Fortson

2 Feb, 2025

DeepSeek released its first free chatbot app, based on the DeepSeek-R1 model which had surpassed ChatGPT as the most-downloaded free app on the iOS App Store in the United States.

The arrival of DeepSeek, a super-cheap yet powerful artificial intelligence system from a little-known Chinese firm, has sent Silicon Valley into a psychological tailspin. Over just a few days, Big Tech appeared to go through all seven stages of acceptance. It started with shock. This was “a Sputnik moment”, exclaimed billionaire investor Marc Andreessen about DeepSeek, which, depending on how you crunch the numbers, offers a state-of-the art AI reasoning model for one-twentieth the cost of a rival such as OpenAI.

Denial and anger swiftly followed. San Francisco-based OpenAI said the firm may have “inappropriately” pirated its technology. Depression - one commentator called DeepSeek’s breakthrough an “extinction-level event” for investors who had ploughed hundreds of billions of dollars into AI start-ups - was followed by reconstruction, the “upward turn” and, finally, acceptance. And all before Thursday.

Indeed, even as OpenAI alleged malfeasance, Microsoft, its single biggest investor and most important partner, was integrating DeepSeek into its Azure cloud computing offering. Amazon’s AWS did the same. DeepSeek is here to stay.

Why have America’s Big Tech champions - the same companies that have poured billions of dollars into the AI companies that DeepSeek undermines - embraced the Chinese interloper founded by Liang Wenfeng?

“Because customers want it,” said Ed Sim, founder of Boldstart, a venture capital firm. All of his start-ups, he said, were looking at ways to swap DeepSeek for the expensive AI models being pumped out by OpenAI and its ilk. “A few years’ worth of cost compression just happened in a matter of days,” he added.

As the dust cleared, businesses worldwide were asking the same question: should they use DeepSeek too? The answer for many will be a resounding yes - but with important caveats.

OpenAI and Anthropic, the leading developers of private AI models, are not cheap. Companies that use their tools to, say, power a customer service chatbot pay a fee based on “tokens”. OpenAI defines a token as four letters or spaces, so that 100 tokens roughly equals about 75 words that are either entered into its chatbot as a question, or produced as an answer. The price per token depends on the model being used; the more powerful the model, the higher the price.

Enter DeepSeek. The most profound move by the company, spun out by founder Liang Wenfeng from his hedge fund, High Flyer, was to make its model open source. That means anyone can download it onto their servers, use it free of charge and, importantly, modify it as they see fit.

Chipmaker Nvidia lost nearly $600B in market value as China’s AI model DeepSeek shook confidence in US tech dominance.

Doing so is not trivial. DeepSeek’s models are large and require immense amounts of computing power. What is more, changing its “weights” - the algorithmic values that determine the answers it gives - requires deep technical knowledge. But it can be done.

Perplexity, an AI-powered search engine start-up in San Francisco, downloaded DeepSeek’s reasoning model, the system that shows the “thought process” that leads to its answers, onto its servers on US soil. It then doctored it to “Americanise” the output, before launching a version of its search engine last week that runs on top of it.

Making those changes was critical, as DeepSeek’s default settings do not allow content critical of, say, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or the Tiananmen Square massacre. “We’ve been sprinting to make it truly uncensored,” said Dmitry Shevelenko, a Perplexity executive. “For the vast majority of cases, it gives very impartial answers.”

There is also the question of data security. DeepSeek’s servers are based in China, where any company must comply with stringent oversight from the CCP, up to and including allowing the government to access user data. That is why, Sim said, he advises anyone against downloading the DeepSeek app, the number-one “productivity” app in Apple’s App Store. “All that data on your phone gets tracked, it goes into China. Who knows what they do with it?”

The US navy banned the use of DeepSeek last week due to “security concerns”.

However, what is certain is that the breakthroughs underlying DeepSeek are an unalloyed good for businesses and governments seeking to integrate AI. That is because its advances will be swiftly integrated by rivals across the industry.

Because of America’s semiconductor export ban against China, DeepSeek was forced to use mostly Nvidia’s H800 chip, a less powerful processor than the H100s used by other AI labs to train their models. DeepSeek rewrote some of the chip’s software, a huge technical feat, for extra performance.

They also pioneered an approach that draws only on relevant portions of the system rather than asking the entire model to weigh in. The result is a steep reduction in computing power, and thus electricity, and thus price.

“You’re talking about a twentyfold price reduction,” Shevelenko said. DeepSeek’s innovations will surely be integrated by rivals.

Shevelenko said: “We always thought there’s not going to be some enduring edge any one company has. The private AI companies no longer can charge a heavy premium for access to their models. You’re gonna see tectonic plates shifting.”

THE TIMES

Here is the link:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/firms-ditch-openai-for-deepseek/news-story/7e9d9bc22acf70413dba2c0d83a3e0bf

Sorry, all I can do is just watch and see the amazing pace of developments in this area. What I really need now is a guide-book to show me how best to apply these tools in day-to day life and answers as to what it will mean for all of the rest us.

We also need to watch for 'built-in' biases and possible distortion and false answers.....

I can imagine a wide variety of professional organisations wondering just what all this means for them and their members. I suspect it will take weeks, if not months, for sensible answers to emerge!

Stay tuned…

David.

 

Tuesday, February 04, 2025

It Looks Like The Crazies Are Loose In Queensland Again!

This appeared a week of so ago!

When it comes to fluoride, let’s do what’s best for children

TIM KEYS and MATT HOPCRAFT

3:31PMJanuary 21, 2025.

The debate over whether to fluoridate or not fluoridate local water supply in our towns and centres has become an issue once again, with anti-fluoride votes by a number of Queensland councils, and a political debate emerging in the United States.

In Queensland, several local councils have decided recently to remove fluoride from the water or continue to reject fluoridation, including Gympie, Cairns and Gladstone councils. They are joining about 50 of Queensland’s 77 counils that do not have fluoride in their water.

As a regional paediatric dental specialist, anecdotally I see much more tooth decay, and of greater severity, in children from non-fluoridated communities than their southeast Queensland counterparts.

Today a quarter of Queenslanders do not have access to a fluoridated drinking water supply, while 90 per cent of Australians do. Fluoride has been added to water supplies in Australia for seven decades, starting in 1953. The majority of Australian states and territories have laws requiring the fluoridation of public water supplies, with the exception of Queensland.

The results of this decision from an oral health perspective are not good.

Facts and fictions of water fluoridation in Queensland.

The removal of fluoride from regional water supplies in Queensland has been gaining pace since the decision to devolve decision-making responsibility to local councils in 2012. This is leaving the state’s most vulnerable children at an increased risk of pain, infection and preventable dental disease. With claims of potential harms, including lower IQ and cognitive impairment, now driving this debate, it’s time to reframe the discussion. Evidence, not fear, should guide public health policies, especially when the stakes involve children.

The proven benefits of fluoridation

Water fluoridation is one of the simplest, most efficient, equitable and cost-effective public health measures available to reduce dental decay. It works by adjusting fluoride levels in drinking water to strengthen tooth enamel and protect against cavities. This benefit is universal, regardless of income, location or access to dental care. However, it overwhelmingly benefits low socio-economic communities and regional and remote areas.

In Queensland, where children experience some of the nation’s highest rates of dental decay, fluoridation is not just beneficial – it is essential. Children in these regions face alarmingly high rates of dental disease. According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, up to half of children in some Queensland regions have untreated decay before starting school. These children also have fewer dental services available.

Misguided claims: debunking the myths

Opposition to fluoridation, and fluoride, often hinges on claims that it poses health risks, including cognitive impairment or lower IQ. These claims have been amplified by figures such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the incoming secretary of health in the Trump administration. He recently called for the removal of fluoride from water supplies in the United States, citing concerns over neurotoxicity on the back of studies purporting to show a link to lower IQ or neuro-behavioural problems.

These claims of potentially harmful effects from fluoridation have garnered media attention but they do not stand up to scientific scrutiny. A recent University of Queensland study found no link between water fluoridation and cognitive impairment in Queensland children. People involved in the study who had a lifetime exposure to fluoridated water had an IQ score 1.07 points higher on average than those with no exposure. This is consistent with a long-term study from New Zealand following nearly 1000 people since their birth in 1972. There was no evidence that fluoride exposure was associated with lower IQ scores.

This local evidence aligns with global research. Organisations including the National Health and Medical Research Council, the World Health Organisation and the Centres for Disease Control agree that fluoridation at optimal levels is safe and effective, and poses no risk to cognitive development, cancer rates or other health conditions.

The cost of inaction

Despite the overwhelming evidence in favour of fluoridation, regional Queensland councils are opting out, often citing community pressure or cost concerns. However, the real cost of removing fluoride is borne by children and families. Without fluoridation, decay rates rise, leading to preventable pain, infection and expensive dental treatments.

Every dollar invested in fluoridation can save up to $18 in dental treatment costs, according to the National Health and Medical Research Council. With many families increasingly finding dental care unaffordable in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, water fluoridation is critical to mitigating health inequities.

Where to from here?

It is vitally important that key health decisions are based on evidence, and not the influence of a vocal minority.

At its core, access to water fluoridation is about equity. It ensures that every child, regardless of where they live or their family’s income, has a chance to grow up with healthy teeth and without preventable pain. In Queensland, where children are already grappling with high rates of decay and insufficient dental services, fluoridation is not a luxury – it is a necessity.

By denying water fluoridation, we are not just ignoring the science – we are neglecting our children. The new Queensland government needs to take back control of this issue. It will save them more money in the long-term, with a lower burden of disease for Queenslanders. They need to stand up and mandate that water fluoridation occurs in all communities possible. Hopefully, all of our state and federal health policy decision makers take note.

Dr Tim Keys is a paediatric dental specialist in public and private practice. He is also the head of advocacy and policy for the Australasian Academy of Paediatric Dentistry.

Associate Professor Matt Hopcraft is a dental public health expert at the Melbourne Dental School.

REFERENCES


This column is published for information purposes only. It is not intended to be used as medical advice and should not be relied on as a substitute for independent professional advice about your personal health or a medical condition from your doctor or other qualified health professional.

Here is the link:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/health/when-it-comes-to-fluoride-lets-do-whats-best-for-children/news-story/0ee58cde92deba65f02d4a1ddce2bff1

I have got to the stage where I reckon the best thing to do is just fluoridate all water supplies and tell no-one so no-one will know or care except for a few water supply staff.

Simple and stops the nonsense! Unless someone tells you it is impossible to know of water has fluoride or not – and no one has ever shown any harm from the low amounts involved!

Can we please move on to something that matters?

David.

Sunday, February 02, 2025

Has Donald Trump Totally Lost It And Become A Global Menace?

This appeared earlier today.

Canada targets $170b of US goods, China takes matter to WTO

2.03PM Jan 2, 2024

China will take US to WTO over tariffs

Reuters, Bloomberg

China will take the US decision to impose an extra across-the-board 10 per cent tariff on Chinese goods to the World Trade Organisation.

The imposition of tariffs by the US “seriously violates” WTO rules, the commerce ministry said in a statement, urging the US to “engage in frank dialogue and strengthen co-operation.”

“China is strongly dissatisfied with this and firmly opposes it,” the statement said according to a Bloomberg translation.

“The US’s unilateral imposition of tariffs seriously violates WTO rules. It is not only ineffective in solving its own problems, but also undermines normal economic and trade co-operation between China and the United States.

“Regarding the wrong practices of the United States, China will file proceedings with the WTO and take corresponding countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests.

“China hopes that the United States will view and handle its own fentanyl and other issues objectively and rationally, instead of threatening other countries with tariffs. China urges the United States to correct its wrong practices, meet China halfway, face problems head-on, engage in candid dialogue, strengthen cooperation, and manage differences on the basis of equality, mutual benefit, and mutual respect.”

US President Donald Trump ordered 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10 per cent on goods from China starting on Tuesday, risking a new trade war that economists said could slow global growth and reignite inflation.

35 mins ago – 1.56PM

Americans stockpile toilet paper before tariff war

Bloomberg

Some Americans have already been prepping for an increase in the price of everyday goods. In a recent survey of 2000 US residents, one in three reported stockpiling daily necessities such as toilet paper and non-perishable food out of fear that tariffs would lead to higher prices.

Some 77 per cent of survey respondents said they were stockpiling toilet paper, just ahead of non-perishable food on 76 per cent.

Medical supplies and medicines were being stockpiled by 58 and 54 per cent of respondents.

Firearms came in at 26 per cent.

42 mins ago – 1.49PM

US aluminium industry calls for exemption for Canada

Bloomberg

The US aluminium industry called on President Donald Trump to exempt Canadian imports of the raw metal from his planned tariffs to help protect jobs and domestic manufacturers.

Trump announced Saturday 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 per cent from China.

The US is heavily reliant on imported aluminium, which is used in construction and a wide range of manufactured goods, from car components to food packaging. Shipments of the lightweight metal from other countries accounted for 44 per cent of the approximately 4 million tonnes consumed in 2023. Canada was the source of more than half those imports, according to Morgan Stanley.

“To ensure that American aluminium wins the future, President Trump should exempt the aluminium metal supply needed for American manufacturers, while continuing to take every possible action at the US border against unfairly traded Chinese aluminium,” the Aluminium Association said in a statement on Saturday.

1 hr ago – 1.24PM

Canada responds with tariffs on $170b in US goods

Andrew Hobbs

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau slammed Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on it, saying he will put tariffs on $C155 billion ($170 billion) of US goods.

“Tonight, I am announcing Canada will be responding to the US trade action with 25 per cent tariffs against $C155 billion worth of American goods,” Trudeau said.

“This will include immediate tariffs on $C30 billion worth of goods as of Tuesday, followed by further tariffs on $C125 billion worth of American products in 21 days’ time to allow Canadian companies and supply chains to seek to find alternatives.”

Trudeau lamented Trump’s decision saying it will drive the two countries apart after years and years of close co-operation.

“From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you,” Trudeau says.

“During your darkest hours during the Iranian hostage crisis, those 444 days, we worked around the clock from our embassy to get your innocent compatriots home.

“During the summer of 2005 when Hurricane Katrina ravaged your great city of New Orleans, or mere weeks ago, when we sent water bombers to tackle the wildfires in California” we were always there for you.

Trudeau encouraged Canadians to buy Canadian products and vacation at home rather than in the US.

He said some non-tariff measures, including some relating to critical minerals, energy procurement and other partnerships are being looked at.

Here is the link:

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/trump-s-tariffs-will-start-on-tuesday-20250202-p5l8v1

All I can say it that I believe Donald Trump has become a global menace and I am not sure how the world can survive 47 more months of this utter stupidity. The world should be pretty worried with this lunatic loose….

I am sure glad I am not Justin Trudeau and the other leaders he is attacking!

Put simply, Trump has lost it.

David.

AusHealthIT Poll Number 779 – Results – 2 February 2025.

Here are the results of the poll.

Who Are You Presently Expecting To Be Elected Prime Minister Later This Year?

Anthony Albanese                                               11 (58%)

Peter Dutton                                                          6 (32%)

I Have No Idea                                                      2 (11%)

Total No. Of Votes: 19

An interesting outcome with a fair majority backing Albo at present – but a very small sample!

Any insights on the poll are welcome, as a comment, as usual!

Very poor voter turnout. 

2 of 19 who answered the poll admitted to not being sure about the answer to the question!

Again, many, many thanks to all those who voted! 

David.

Friday, January 31, 2025

It Will Be Interesting To Watch How This Plays Out Over The Next Few Years!

 This popped up last week!

22 January 2025

Virtual service aims to keep 85k people out of NSW EDs every year


By

Staff Writers

The Sydney Local Health District has launched its latest virtual initiative aimed at keeping adults out of emergency departments where possible.

The virtualADULTS urgent care service – accessed through Healthdirect Australia – joins the virtualKIDS service that was expanded across NSW in January 2024 for children aged up to 16 years.

Since that expansion, more than 10,000 children across NSW have received more timely, convenient care through the virtualKIDS service, and many thousands of these families have avoided a trip to the ED, according to the state government.

The paediatric service originally began in three NSW local health districts and the virtualADULTS program rollout will follow a similar path.

The rollout has started in the SLHD. RPA Virtual is one of two hubs that will operate the service, delivering virtualADULTS to all of metropolitan Sydney, Illawarra-Shoalhaven and the Central Coast.

A regional hub will begin operating early this year, with plans to expand the service statewide at the end of 2025.

NSW health minister Ryan Park said the program would help ease the pressure on emergency departments and give people the option of receiving care in the community or at home.

“This is all about making sure we can deliver safe care, at the right place, at the right time, with the right staff,” he said.

Once fully implemented, 85,000 patients would use this service in a year, with doctors and nursing staff able to treat people via video call for a range of conditions that were deemed urgent but not life-threatening, said Mr Park.

“It’s about those issues that you might normally see a GP for, but for some reason can’t access in a timely hour, this is about filing that gap,” he said.

“It works because of skilled clinicians, fantastic nursing staff, and really strong clinical leads as well as allied health care professionals who work in multidisciplinary teams providing care to patients where they need it most.”

Dr Jeremy Fry, emergency medicine staff specialist at RPA Virtual Hospital and at RPA Emergency Department, said he supported the initiative.

“My colleagues and I have seen and experienced first-hand what can be an overwhelming and exhausting experience for patients in emergency departments,” he said.

“This includes overcrowding in clinical spaces and waiting areas, and the often-extended wait times for care.

“Through working at RPA Virtual Hospital, we have also seen the seen the immense possibilities offered by virtual urgent care to safely reduce the burden on our emergency departments. This new service will mean less waiting time for patients.”

VirtualADULTS will use video conferencing technology to connect patients with a multidisciplinary team of clinicians, including doctors and nurses, where clinically appropriate. The clinician will assess the patient and give expert advice.

It will initially be available from 8am-4.30pm Monday to Friday (excluding public holidays) for people aged 16 years and over. From February 2025, the service will be extended to be available from 8am to 10pm Monday to Sunday.

The service provides virtual urgent care for illnesses or injuries such as coughs, colds, fevers or flu; respiratory symptoms; vomiting and diarrhoea; minor infections; and rashes.

“Virtual care has made tremendous progress, accelerated in part by the pandemic, and it is becoming an increasingly embraced model of care, allowing people to be treated from the comfort of home,” said Mr Park.

“Virtual care is safe, effective and convenient, and I am so pleased we are making it available for adults for urgent care.”

Free, 24/7 health advice and access to health services like virtualADULTS and virtualKIDS is available through Healthdirect for patients in NSW.

Here is the link:

 https://www.medicalrepublic.com.au/virtual-service-aims-to-keep-85k-people-out-of-nsw-eds-every-year/113775 

Will be interesting to come back in a year or so and see how it has worked out!

David.

Thursday, January 30, 2025

This Is A Useful Summary On Just Where We Are With AI Now!

This appeared last week

AI system reaches human level on test for ‘general intelligence’

Here’s what that means.

By Michael Timothy Bennet, Elija Perrier on Jan 23 2025 11:11 AM

Is AI capable of "general intelligence"?

A new artificial intelligence (AI) model has just achieved human-level results on a test designed to measure “general intelligence”.

On 20 December, OpenAI’s o3 system scored 85 per cent on the ARC-AGI benchmark, well above the previous AI best score of 55 per cent and on par with the average human score.

It also scored well on a very difficult mathematics test.

Creating artificial general intelligence, or AGI, is the stated goal of all the major AI research labs.

At first glance, OpenAI appears to have at least made a significant step towards this goal.

While scepticism remains, many AI researchers and developers feel something just changed.

For many, the prospect of AGI now seems more real, urgent and closer than anticipated.

Are they right?

Generalisation and intelligence

To understand what the o3 result means, you need to understand what the ARC-AGI test is all about. In technical terms, it’s a test of an AI system’s “sample efficiency” in adapting to something new – how many examples of a novel situation the system needs to see to figure out how it works.

An AI system like ChatGPT (GPT-4) is not very sample efficient.

It was “trained” on millions of examples of human text, constructing probabilistic “rules” about which combinations of words are most likely.

The result is pretty good at common tasks.

It is bad at uncommon tasks, because it has less data (fewer samples) about those tasks.

Until AI systems can learn from small numbers of examples and adapt with more sample efficiency, they will only be used for very repetitive jobs and ones where the occasional failure is tolerable.

The ability to accurately solve previously unknown or novel problems from limited samples of data is known as the capacity to generalise.

It is widely considered a necessary, even fundamental, element of intelligence.

Grids and patterns

The ARC-AGI benchmark tests for sample efficient adaptation using little grid square problems like the one below.

The AI needs to figure out the pattern that turns the grid on the left into the grid on the right.

Each question gives three examples to learn from.

The AI system then needs to figure out the rules that “generalise” from the three examples to the fourth.

These are a lot like the IQ tests sometimes you might remember from school.

Weak rules and adaptation

We don’t know exactly how OpenAI has done it, but the results suggest the o3 model is highly adaptable.

From just a few examples, it finds rules that can be generalised.

To figure out a pattern, we shouldn’t make any unnecessary assumptions or be more specific than we really have to be.

In theory, if you can identify the “weakest” rules that do what you want, then you have maximised your ability to adapt to new situations.

What do we mean by the weakest rules?

The technical definition is complicated, but weaker rules are usually ones that can be described in simpler statements.

In the example above, a plain English expression of the rule might be something like: “Any shape with a protruding line will move to the end of that line and ‘cover up’ any other shapes it overlaps with.”

Searching chains of thought?

While we don’t know how OpenAI achieved this result just yet, it seems unlikely they deliberately optimised the o3 system to find weak rules.

However, to succeed at the ARC-AGI tasks it must be finding them.

We do know that OpenAI started with a general-purpose version of the o3 model (which differs from most other models, because it can spend more time “thinking” about difficult questions) and then trained it specifically for the ARC-AGI test.

French AI researcher Francois Chollet, who designed the benchmark, believes o3 searches through different “chains of thought” describing steps to solve the task.

It would then choose the “best” according to some loosely defined rule, or “heuristic”.

This would be “not dissimilar” to how Google’s AlphaGo system searched through different possible sequences of moves to beat the world Go champion.

You can think of these chains of thought like programs that fit the examples.

Of course, if it is like the Go-playing AI, then it needs a heuristic, or loose rule, to decide which program is best.

There could be thousands of different seemingly equally valid programs generated.

That heuristic could be “choose the weakest” or “choose the simplest”.

However, if it is like AlphaGo then they simply had an AI create a heuristic.

This was the process for AlphaGo.

Google trained a model to rate different sequences of moves as better or worse than others.

What we still don’t know

The question then is, is this really closer to AGI? If that is how o3 works, then the underlying model might not be much better than previous models.

The concepts the model learns from language might not be any more suitable for generalisation than before.

Instead, we may just be seeing a more generalisable “chain of thought” found through the extra steps of training a heuristic specialised to this test. The proof, as always, will be in the pudding.

Almost everything about o3 remains unknown. OpenAI has limited disclosure to a few media presentations and early testing to a handful of researchers, laboratories and AI safety institutions.

Truly understanding the potential of o3 will require extensive work, including evaluations, an understanding of the distribution of its capacities, how often it fails and how often it succeeds.

When o3 is finally released, we’ll have a much better idea of whether it is approximately as adaptable as an average human.

If so, it could have a huge, revolutionary, economic impact, ushering in a new era of self-improving accelerated intelligence. We will require new benchmarks for AGI itself and serious consideration of how it ought to be governed.

If not, then this will still be an impressive result. However, everyday life will remain much the same.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original here.

I suspect all most of us can do is stand back and watch! I guess it had to happen!

David.

 

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

This Seems Likely To Be Closest We Will Get To The Truth On The Origin Of COVID-19!

 This popped up a few days ago!

CIA now favours lab leak theory on origins of Covid-19

Michael R. Gordon and Dustin Volz

26 Jan, 2025

Dow Jones

The Central Intelligence Agency has now concluded that the deadly Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, lending credibility to a view that has been the focus of sharp debate among scientists and politicians for years.

In doing so, the CIA has now joined the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Energy Department in identifying a laboratory mishap in Wuhan, China as the probable source of the Covid-19 virus. It has killed more than 1.2 million Americans and over seven million people worldwide.

“CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the Covid-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting,” an agency spokesman said in a statement released Saturday.

The spokesman added that the judgment was “low confidence” and that the CIA would continue to evaluate “any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA’s assessment.”

The agency had previously taken the stance that it didn’t have enough information to assess whether the virus had leapt from an animal to a human or arose from a laboratory mishap.

Covid-19 emerged in Wuhan in late 2019 and then spread rapidly through the world in 2020 and 2021 before the development of vaccines helped limit deaths. It marked one of the worst pandemics in modern history.

But the origins of the virus still divides the U.S. intelligence community, in large part because the Chinese government hasn’t co-operated with international investigations.

Four U.S. intelligence agencies have favoured, with low confidence, the animal transmission theory. So has the National Intelligence Council, a body of senior intelligence officers who reports to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

John Ratcliffe, the new director of the CIA confirmed earlier this week by the Senate, has long said he thought the lab leak theory was the most plausible explanation.

In an interview with Breitbart published Friday, Ratcliffe said investigating the issue was a top priority that he wanted to tackle on “day one.”

Officials familiar with the matter said the agency has been continuing its work on the question since the virus arose. The agency said in its Saturday statement that “both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible.”

The New York Times earlier reported on the new judgment.

A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment.

A former FBI senior scientist told The Wall Street Journal in December that a fresh look at the virus’s origin and the intelligence-community reports on the issue, was needed.

In the waning days of the Biden administration, Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s national-security adviser, called for establishing a panel of outside experts to take a fresh look at the intelligence agencies’ findings.

The debate over Covid origins at times has been heavily politicised. During his first term in office, President Trump blamed Beijing for what he called the “China virus,” while his Democratic critics at the time said the White House was trying to divert attention from its management of the response to the pandemic.

While the natural transmission theory was initially the dominant view within the intelligence community, the debate over Covid’s origins has shifted considerably over the past several years. No host animal that might have transmitted the virus has been found, while experts have raised concerns that precautions for containing biological agents at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were inadequate.

The FBI, which was the first intelligence agency to point to a lab leak as a likely explanation, made its judgment with “moderate confidence,” while the Energy Department and CIA’s views were made with low confidence.

The CIA issued its low confidence judgment after former CIA Director William Burns directed the agency to take a position on the origins rather than remain agnostic, according to officials familiar with the matter, though he didn’t urge a particular conclusion. The updated analysis, which wasn’t based on specific new intelligence, was published internally at the agency before Ratcliffe’s arrival, the officials said.

Sen. Tom Cotton, the Republican chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, applauded the CIA for releasing its new judgment, which he called “the most plausible explanation of Covid’s origins.”

He added: “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”

The Wall Street Journal

Here is the link:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/cia-now-favours-lab-leak-theory-on-origins-of-covid19/news-story/799d885e412840c3b696a3cbdabc94ed

I think the bottom line here is that we will never know – but that the US needs someone to blame given the huge death toll in the US.

David.