February 24
2022 Edition
-----
The
Russo-Ukraine imbroglio – heading towards war apparently – is dominating the
global headlines and worries and various sides position for advantage. All we
can do is wait and watch – nervously.
In the UK the
bis news has been some terrible record setting storms and winds.
In OZ we have
seen national politics go into a total frenzy even though we are still months
from an election. It will be a long a painful couple of months.
-----
Major Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/the-great-bond-bear-market-is-long-overdue-20220213-p59vzw
The great bond bear market is long overdue
Mark Tinker
Feb 13, 2022
– 10.10am
With the US
10-year bond yield briefly breaking up through the 2 per cent level last week,
it’s worth noting that global bond markets in general just completed an
absolutely terrible month for performance in January, following on from an
equally terrible year in 2021.
Indeed, last
year saw the worst annual performance since 1999. However, this is not simply
because concerns are rising about inflation -- although this is of
course a factor -- far more important, in our view, is that the annual loss
in 2021 has triggered a long overdue global reassessment of the whole point of
owning bonds in an investment portfolio.
In Australia,
thanks to the wonder of the dividend credits, most savers have little exposure
to low yielding bonds, but for most of the pensioners in the rest of the world,
so-called prudent regulation means they are heavily exposed to assets with a
negative real (in some cases a negative nominal) yield, and are dependent on
capital gains for their returns.
Now that
disinflation is over, we don’t even have to debate whether the inflation is
temporary or permanent, and since the Fed is no longer
either lowering short rates or buying the bonds themselves, the question
for long-term investors as opposed to traders has to be, 'why own any bonds at
all?'
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pathetically-undergunned-the-navy-s-nuclear-dilemma-20211229-p59knk.html
‘Pathetically undergunned’: The navy’s nuclear dilemma
The navy
has spent billions on new surface ships. But experts warn they’re all but
useless against China. Modern naval warfare will be won underwater, and time’s
running out for Australia to be ready.
By Anthony Galloway
February 14,
2022
Since
Federation there have been two competing schools of thought on how Australia
should assemble its defence forces. The names may have changed, but the divide
is always present.
In the early
20th century it was the “Australianists” against the “imperialists”. Then it
was “fortress Australia” versus “forward defence”. Since the end of the Vietnam
War, it’s been “self-reliance” and the “US alliance”.
Are we
building the Australian Defence Force to defend the continent and its
approaches from an attack? Or is the aim to deploy the ADF further from home,
alongside the United States and other allies, so that we keep the wider region
stable and rely on a security guarantee from our big and powerful friend?
The truth is that
Australia is always trying to do both, but in a world of finite resources the
hard part is deciding where we sit on this spectrum so that we can structure
our forces accordingly.
With the rise
of China challenging the position of the US in the Asia-Pacific, this
fundamental split is at the centre of the debate over how the Royal Australian
Navy should be structured.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/only-onethird-of-voters-are-satisfied-with-scott-morrison-new-study-reveals/news-story/84245e84c95fd49f4b58e5e656276062
Only one-third of voters are satisfied with Scott Morrison, new study
reveals
Ellen Ransley
Courtney Gould
NCA NewsWire
5:57AM
February 14, 2022
Prime Minister
Scott Morrison faces an uphill battle to win over Australians ahead of an
anticipated May election, with the latest Newspoll showing Labor retains a
convincing lead over the government.
The survey
shows the Coalition’s primary vote remains on 34 per cent, the lowest since the
2018 Liberal leadership spill, while Labor has maintained its primary vote peak
of 41 per cent – it’s highest since the spill.
The poll
follows a chaotic week in parliament with the Morrison government pulling its
Religious Discrimination Bill after five Liberal MPs crossed the floor to side
with Labor on amendments to protect transgender students.
The Prime
Minister also suffered damaging leaks from cabinet.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/huge-state-byelection-swings-put-morrison-on-red-alert/news-story/e81e5ea50601487894eb8c9241e976f6
Huge state by-election swings put Morrison on red alert
Simon Benson
8:30PM
February 13, 2022
Self-serving
explanations for double-digit by-election swings against the Perrottet
government at the weekend ignore a now tangible reality.
The general
level of irritation in the community, in some cases palpable anger, isn’t
confined to the Commonwealth and the Morrison government.
It is being
directed at any incumbent government, at any level. The premiers also are finally
now in the firing line.
You don’t
need a focus group to reveal that with slow rollouts of vaccines over summer
and the impact on parents’ daily lives with school going back, people are
beyond frustrated.
And they
don’t care whose fault it is.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-putin-invades-ukraine-here-s-what-australians-need-from-morrison-and-albanese-20220214-p59w7k.html
If Putin invades Ukraine, here’s what Australians need from Morrison and
Albanese
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
February 15,
2022 — 5.30am
If Scott
Morrison ends up winning the federal election, he likely will have a
170-centimetre, 69-year-old ex-KGB agent to thank. If Vladimir Putin sends his
forces across the border to invade Ukraine, a new atmosphere of anxiety and
uncertainty will pervade Australia’s election atmospherics.
Already,
airlines are diverting flights around Ukraine. Oil markets are skittish and the
price of petrol in Australia is heading to $2 a litre. Wheat prices are rising
worldwide. And not a single Russian missile has been fired yet.
The US
administration reportedly thinks that an attack is now certain, with only the
exact date unclear. Even Putin has withdrawn his diplomats from the Ukrainian
capital, supposedly out of fear of “provocations” by the Ukrainians.
US President
Joe Biden reportedly told his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy to
“prepare for impact”. You can see Australian political leaders doing just that.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stolen-generations-survivors-owe-nobody-their-forgiveness-prime-minister-20220214-p59wdo.html
Stolen Generations survivors owe nobody their forgiveness, Prime Minister
Cameron Gooley
Indigenous
affairs reporter
February 14,
2022 — 7.26pm
Most people
might find it unusual, or perhaps even somewhat insulting, to use an apology to
lecture a victim on the power of forgiveness.
But the Prime
Minister did just that on Monday as part of an annual address commemorating
Kevin Rudd’s apology to the Stolen Generations in 2008.
“Sorry is not
the hardest word to say,” Scott Morrison told the House, echoing his words from
14 years earlier. “The hardest is, ‘I forgive you.’ ”
“But I do
know that such a path of forgiveness does lead to healing,” he continued. “It
does open up a new opportunity. It does offer up release from the bondage of
pain and suffering that no simple apology on its own can achieve.”
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/defence-revises-down-planned-availability-of-the-f35a-jet-fleet/news-story/a4ea7c4a3437da068aefc63c2a8b15d2
Defence revises down planned availability of the F-35A jet fleet
Ben Packham
February 15,
2022
Defence has
revised down the planned availability of the nation’s fleet of F-35A fighter
jets for the next four years, despite growing regional threats.
New budget
estimates reveal the Joint Strike Fighters – Australia’s most potent air combat
platform – have had their flying hours downgraded by 25 per cent this financial
year, and by 17, 14 and 13 per cent in each of the following financial years.
The move
follows repeated downgrades in F-35A flying hours, including by 36 per cent
last financial year, amid US warnings the jets should be flown infrequently due
to maintenance issues and parts availability.
Australia now
has 44 F-35As, basing an initial four at RAAF Tindal – Australia’s most
important northerly base. The fleet is scheduled to grow to 72 by the end of
2023, with an option to expand to 100 aircraft.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/what-have-smsfs-done-to-deserve-this/news-story/c3bb04876f9b3797a0a98a065e89a11d
What have SMSFs done to deserve this?
James Kirby
7:34AM
February 16, 2022
Self-managed
super funds have been actively disadvantaged by key government agencies which
understate their returns by using inappropriate calculations, according to a
new report.
The research
from the University of Adelaide arrives as the SMSF sector has been struggling
to compete with larger funds as a series of high-profile assessments suggest
smaller funds are inferior to billion-dollar funds.
The new research
– commissioned by the Self Managed Super Fund Association – says the ATO is
using inappropriate comparisons which “produce lower estimates of investment
returns, all else being equal”. The report concludes SMSFs achieve directly
comparable returns with larger institutional funds.
Similarly,
the Australian Securities and Investments Commission – which has said SMSFs
with less than $500,000 have “lower returns” – has been taken to task. “The
notion that smaller SMSFs deliver materially lower investment returns on
average than larger SMSFs is not supported by the research results,” says the
report.
-----
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/02/17/tax-reform-tony-abbott-alan-kohler/
6:00am, Feb
17, 2022 Updated: 5:42pm, Feb 16
Alan Kohler: How Tony Abbott killed tax reform
opinion
Alan Kohler
It wasn’t
only climate change that Tony Abbott and the Coalition cynically weaponised a
decade ago – they did it to tax reform as well.
The two
things were merged in the ruthlessly dishonest, but effective description of
Labor’s emissions trading scheme as a “carbon tax”, but the result was a full
stop to any action on either climate change or tax reform for more than a
decade.
In fact, 12
years after Abbott became leader of the Liberal Party by one vote, both the
Coalition and the Labor party are still incapable of serious reform of the tax
system, or serious action on climate change.
The ascension
of Tony Abbott was truly one of Australia’s greatest economic disasters.
Now there is
a new push from the Financial Review for another needless inquiry into the tax
system to try to generate some momentum for reform that might lift productivity
growth, which has been falling since Abbott knocked off Turnbull in 2009.
The goal,
broadly, is to shift more taxation from income to consumption and assets, by
increasing and broadening the GST and removing the capital gains tax discount
and introducing an inheritance tax, among other things. But nothing will
happen.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albo-can-lose-by-sticking-to-the-labor-script-20220215-p59wpq
Albo can lose by sticking to the Labor script
ALP-friendly
issues such as Medicare haven’t worked at the last three elections. Labor can’t
avoid talking about the economic and fiscal repair issues that matter to
swinging voters.
Nick Dyrenfurth
Researcher
Feb 16, 2022
– 1.18pm
At first
glance it might appear odd for Labor leader Anthony Albanese to heed the
example of the infamous ALP “rat” Billy Hughes. Yet World War I provides a
salutary, if paradoxical, lesson in this federal election year.
Then Labor
prime minister Hughes left Australia to attend the Imperial War Cabinet in
London early in 1916, visiting troops on the Western Front, proceeding on a
well-publicised speaking tour, urging a renewed war effort, and all but
advocating for conscription for overseas service.
When Hughes
returned on July 31, he was greeted by a full-page salutation in the Australian
Workers’ Union’s Worker newspaper quoting his previous opposition to
conscription: “Welcome Home to the Cause of Anti-Conscription”. Its editor,
legendary Labor propagandist Henry Boote, warned Hughes not to mistake the
“popping of champagne corks for the voice of the people”.
It was to no
avail. A month after Hughes’ return, on August 30, 1916, having convinced the
federal Labor caucus to put the matter to a national vote, he announced a
referendum (technically a plebiscite) would take place in October for the
purpose of introducing conscription. A month later, the AWU-dominated NSW Labor
executive expelled him along with other parliamentarians.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-safe-from-challengers-before-poll-but-a-target-for-the-underminers-20220216-p59wtb.html
PM safe from challengers before poll but a target for the underminers
Niki Savva
Award-winning
political commentator and author
February 17,
2022 — 5.00am
There are
three ways Scott Morrison can be removed as Prime Minister before the election.
The first would be if Peter Dutton challenged him. The second would be if Josh
Frydenberg challenged him. The third, and the least bloody, would be if his two
closest confidantes, Stuart Robert and Ben Morton, told him he should step
aside for the good of the Liberal Party because if he stayed, the government
would be annihilated.
All three
options have been canvassed internally but the chances of any one of them
happening is close to zero. Dutton, who does not want to blow up the joint
again, has ruled out a challenge. Frydenberg has also ruled out a challenge.
Neither has denied their ambition, both would contest ferociously if there was
a vacancy. Both have been not so subtly auditioning for the job, Dutton
dropping bombs on Anthony Albanese over China and national security, and
Frydenberg over economic management.
While it is
as well to be prepared, there is unlikely to be an opening until and if
Morrison loses the election.
Even if
annihilation point was reached – and it hasn’t been – Robert and Morton would
not approach Morrison, and he would not listen to them if they did.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/from-ukuleles-to-ukraine-we-re-in-uncertain-times-again-20220216-p59wug
From ukuleles to Ukraine, we’re in uncertain times again
John
Howard may have used a dog whistle rather than Scott Morrison’s bullhorn, but
there’s a long and dishonourable tradition of security scares in election
campaigns.
Phillip Coorey Political
editor
Feb 17, 2022
– 8.00pm
Three years
ago, Australia experienced a federal election campaign fought around tax,
climate change and budget management.
At times it
was rough and disingenuous, as election campaigns always are, but in relative
terms, it was a reasonably edifying contest.
This time,
with neither party having much of a policy agenda and the climate wars
neutralised, all indications are of a contest devoid of policy substance and
one focused more on fear and character assassination.
That was writ
large this week, the penultimate sitting period before the election, when
politics moved to a dark place where it looks set to stay until May.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/history-shows-markets-rebound-after-a-crisis-20220216-p59x0r
History shows markets rebound after a crisis
Russia’s
threat to invade the Ukraine has sparked volatility across sharemarkets but it
may not be as bad as investors fear.
Alex Gluyas Markets
reporter
Feb 18, 2022
– 5.00am
The threat of
a Russian
invasion of Ukraine is a reminder to investors of how markets behave in a
crisis – and what to expect if Russia does follow through.
As tensions
escalated between the two countries this week, investors fled risk assets,
sending equity markets tumbling, and piled
into safe havens including gold and the US dollar. Strategists caution
things could change at any time.
Regardless of
whether an invasion occurs in coming days or weeks, history tells us that
markets rebound swiftly and powerfully from the initial fall caused by even the
most severe crises.
Over the
course of 29 separate events dating back to Germany defeating France in 1940,
it has taken the Dow Jones index 18 days on average from the beginning of the
crisis to hit its bottom, with an average decline over that period of 11.6 per
cent, according to data compiled by Bell Potter strategist Richard Coppleson.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-interest-rate-debate-is-missing-a-crucial-ingredient-20220217-p59xh9.html
The interest rate debate is missing a crucial ingredient
Ross Gittins
Economics
Editor
February 18,
2022 — 11.04am
The financial
markets and financial press may have convinced themselves we have a serious
inflation problem and must hit the interest-rate brakes early and often, but
the clear message from our top econocrats is that they aren’t in such a hurry.
Their eyes haven’t moved from the prize: seizing this chance to achieve genuine
full employment.
Nothing in
Treasury secretary Dr Steven Kennedy’s remarks
to a Senate committee this week suggested he was anxious about our recent rise
in prices, nor hinted that a rise in the official interest rate was imminent.
Indeed,
“interest rates are still close to zero and expected to remain historically low
for some time,” he said.
What little
he said about inflation was that “the effects of COVID on inflation, often
characterised as a combination of increased demand for goods [at the expense of
demand for services] and supply-side shocks, are still passing through the
economy.
-----
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/shifted-expectations-1-in-5-aussies-quit-their-jobs-in-the-last-year/news-story/c28970b577b26ab61b0caf3c0a6cd68a
’Shifted expectations’: 1 in 5 Aussies quit their jobs in the last year
New
research has unveiled the shocking extent of Australia’s “Great Resignation”
and the key reason people are changing jobs.
Alex Druce
February 18,
2022 - 9:46AM
NCA NewsWire
One in five
Aussies quit their job in the past year – while another quarter are thinking
about leaving now – as they refuse to put up with career stagnation, burnout
and poor pay.
A new survey
conducted by the National Australia Bank shows businesses are being forced to
lift their game to retain talent amid the so-called “Great Resignation” of
workers during the coronavirus pandemic, with workers increasingly looking
elsewhere after some soul-searching.
The NAB
survey, which polled 1200 people over November and December, found a lack of
personal fulfilment, purpose, career limitations, mental health concerns and
poor pay were the main factors forcing people to consider changing their jobs.
NAB executive
for banking Julie Rynski said after decades of low employee turnover, two years
of the coronavirus had forced people to consider what they really wanted out of
life and their career.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/there-is-an-economic-front-line-too-20220217-p59xgv
There is an economic front line too
National
security in Australia usually has a khaki tinge to it. But the fragility of
global supply chains and potential for coercion means the economy is now being
recruited as well.
Richard McGregor
Columnist
Feb 18, 2022
– 12.34pm
The pandemic
is unwinding in Australia and much of the developed world just as it started
two years ago, with a desperate reliance on medical imports from China.
First it was
masks and ventilators. Now it is rapid antigen test kits, without which schools
wouldn’t have opened and thousands of workers including nurses and wait staff
would be off work.
The
over-reliance on China for essential health and medical equipment tells us many
things, not least about the dynamism of the mainland’s economy.
Look on the
backs of the packets of rapid antigen tests and you will invariably see the
names of companies in cities in inland provinces that few outside of the
localities have ever heard of.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/are-you-mentally-ill-or-just-very-unhappy-20220210-p59vhh
Are you mentally ill, or just very unhappy?
As rates
of diagnosis rise, a fierce debate rages in psychiatry. Are you experiencing a
parallel pandemic, or having a rational response to a traumatic world?
Sophie McBain
Feb 18, 2022
– 9.38am
One afternoon
in December 2004, Samantha* left her house in northern England and walked to the
nearby river. She tried not to think about her five young children, alone at
home. She wanted to plunge into the water; she didn’t know how to swim.
Samantha’s
11-year-old daughter, alarmed by her mother’s absence, dialled 999, and the
police found her on the riverbank. She was transferred to a psychiatric
hospital, where she spent four days curled up in a ball, crying. She was
already known to social services: Samantha had a violent ex-boyfriend and had
been abused as a child before being taken into care at the age of 12. It was
difficult to know how to be a good mother when she had never been mothered
herself.
Shortly
afterwards a psychiatrist, asked by the local authority to assess her,
diagnosed Samantha with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Last year,
Samantha read the report to me over Zoom. By then we had been speaking for
three months. She was warm and solicitous – “But anyway, how are you?” she
always asked – but now her voice was hard with rage. The report noted her “lack
of a sense of personal responsibility” and “poor impulse control”; it accused
her of “feigning a mental disorder while in hospital”.
“But that’s
not me, that’s not who I am!” she remembers telling her solicitor, terrified. A
social worker told her she needed to achieve greater “emotional stability”.
(“If you could just close your eyes for a second and imagine someone taking
your children away,” Samantha asked me, “how would you feel?“) But the
psychiatrist deemed her disorder “untreatable”, and her children were removed.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/war-on-securocrats-is-a-final-descent-into-policy-madness-20220217-p59xgw
War on securocrats is a final descent into policy madness
The
Coalition has doubled down in its attacks on current and former security
mandarins to make its point.
Laura Tingle Columnist
Feb 18, 2022
– 5.07pm
If there was
ever a time we needed to be having a serious conversation about defence and
national security, it would probably be about now. Our relationship with our
biggest trading partner is in the toilet. That major trading partner is on the
rise, and our traditional allies – though apparently it is very rude to say
this – are in decline.
Instead of
pausing, taking stock and developing a slightly more detached strategic view of
what Australia’s interests may be in this, we have retreated into traditional alliances
that will deliver something unspecified to us in about 40 years’ time.
There is a
very strong likelihood of a major war in Europe, in which both our biggest
trading partner and the United States have significant interests.
But there is
more.
Last year,
the head of ASIO, Mike Burgess, announced the domestic security agency had
dumped terms such as right-wing and Islamic extremism as “no longer fit for
purpose”, and replaced them with broad terms of “ideologically motivated
violent extremism” and “religiously motivated violent extremism”.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/arise-scott-morrison-our-first-full-term-pm-since-howard-20220218-p59xji.html
Arise, Scott Morrison, our first full-term PM since Howard
Peter Hartcher
Political and
international editor
February 19,
2022 — 5.30am
When the
House of Representatives adjourned at 4.59pm and MPs made their customary
Thursday afternoon dash from Parliament House to Canberra airport this week,
Scott Morrison silently achieved a major breakthrough.
The last
realistic chance for anyone to challenge him for the leadership of the Liberal
Party before the forthcoming election had passed uneventfully. There’s no
longer any question. He will now lead the Coalition to the polls in May.
Morrison is
set to become the first prime minister to serve a full term since John Howard.
Parliament is expected to sit for only three more days before election day, and
they are devoted to the federal budget. It’s not politically or practically
workable to remove the prime minister as his government brings down the
pre-election budget.
All the
others since Howard had their prime ministerships terminated by their own party
rooms. Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, all
terminated by their own colleagues with extreme prejudice. Kevin Rudd’s brief
second prime ministership was ended by the voters.
------
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/are-you-mentally-ill-or-just-very-unhappy-20220210-p59vhh
Are you mentally ill, or just very
unhappy?
As rates of diagnosis rise, a fierce
debate rages in psychiatry. Are you experiencing a parallel pandemic, or having
a rational response to a traumatic world?
Sophie McBain
Feb 18, 2022 – 9.38am
One afternoon in December 2004, Samantha*
left her house in northern England and walked to the nearby river. She tried
not to think about her five young children, alone at home. She wanted to plunge
into the water; she didn’t know how to swim.
Samantha’s 11-year-old daughter, alarmed by
her mother’s absence, dialled 999, and the police found her on the riverbank.
She was transferred to a psychiatric hospital, where she spent four days curled
up in a ball, crying. She was already known to social services: Samantha had a
violent ex-boyfriend and had been abused as a child before being taken into
care at the age of 12. It was difficult to know how to be a good mother when
she had never been mothered herself.
Shortly afterwards a psychiatrist, asked by
the local authority to assess her, diagnosed Samantha with borderline
personality disorder (BPD). Last year, Samantha read the report to me over
Zoom. By then we had been speaking for three months. She was warm and solicitous
– “But anyway, how are you?” she always asked – but now her voice was hard with
rage. The report noted her “lack of a sense of personal responsibility” and
“poor impulse control”; it accused her of “feigning a mental disorder while in
hospital”.
“But that’s not me, that’s not who I am!” she
remembers telling her solicitor, terrified. A social worker told her she needed
to achieve greater “emotional stability”. (“If you could just close your eyes
for a second and imagine someone taking your children away,” Samantha asked me,
“how would you feel?“) But the psychiatrist deemed her disorder “untreatable”,
and her children were removed.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/alex-hawke-the-political-animal-who-became-morrison-s-machine-man-20220205-p59u1r.html
Alex Hawke: The political animal who became Morrison’s machine man
By Michael Koziol
February 19,
2022 — 5.00am
In August
2005, when John Brogden resigned as NSW Liberal leader after humiliating
himself at a function a month earlier, he stood up at a press conference and
took responsibility. He also blamed Alex Hawke.
Brogden
accused Hawke, then a 28-year-old staffer and president of the federal Young
Liberals, of circulating dirt on him, which Hawke emphatically denied. At any
rate it was extraordinary: the Opposition Leader naming and shaming a Young
Liberal functionary as central to his downfall.
But to anyone
who knew Hawke, or has come to know him since, it would not have been a shock.
A political animal through and through, he has always played the game hard -
which is what makes him such a useful right-hand man to Prime Minister Scott
Morrison.
Most
Australians had probably never heard of Alex Hawke until last month, when he
spectacularly deported
the unvaccinated world No. 1 tennis player Novak Djokovic on the eve of the
Australian Open. Even amid that feverish affair he remained mysterious: as
Immigration Minister, he signed the documents, but it was Morrison and Home
Affairs Minister Karen Andrews who fronted the cameras and the world.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/a-failure-of-australia-s-political-market-of-ideas-20220217-p59xgu
A failure of Australia’s political market of ideas
The
Financial Review’s take on the principles at stake in major domestic and global
stories.
Feb 18, 2022
– 5.49pm
The last two
weeks of this Parliament have been a failure of the political market in
Australia. The political class should be pitching in with the best ideas to
ensure Australia’s security and prosperity, subjecting them to scrutiny and
comparison, before settlement on firm national policy.
Instead,
Parliament has become a race to the bottom on personal rather than policy
defects, a dead-end contest to make the other side look worse.
The one
contested effort to pass new laws, on religious freedom, ended in fiasco with
the Coalition splitting against itself. The rest was just attempts by both
sides to spread fear and loathing on the campaign trail.
The Prime
Minister twisted national security into lurid talk of Manchurian candidates.
Labor turned deaths in aged homes, where the statistics need careful
interpretation, into a story of government granny killers.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/hyperbole-and-finger-pointing-as-national-security-looms-over-election-20220217-p59x9j
National security looms over election
The Morrison
government is banging the national security drum more furiously than before as
it struggles to overcome a deficit in the opinion polls.
Andrew Tillett
Political correspondent
Feb 18, 2022
– 11.16am
From
committing the “last man and the last shilling” to World War I through to
deciding who can come to Australia and the circumstances in which they come,
khaki elections are not for the faint-hearted
But the
Morrison government is banging the national security drum more furiously than
before as it struggles to overcome a deficit in the opinion polls and internal
divisions three months from election day.
Over the past
fortnight, Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and Labor have variously been painted
as China appeasers and sleeper agents and the Communist Party’s pick for the
next election, against a backdrop of Beijing’s designs on Taiwan and Russia
menacing Ukraine.
It’s not as
catchy as the “axis of evil” but Scott Morrison declared only he had the
backbone to stand up to the “coalition of autocracies”
threatening the global order in these “uncertain times”.
-----
COVID 19 Information
-----
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/university-jobs-slashed-as-pandemic-forces-students-away-20220211-p59vqn
Pandemic-hit unis cut up to 27,000 jobs in a year
Julie Hare Education editor
Feb 13, 2022
– 2.39pm
Universities
cut up to 27,000 jobs in a single year as they sought to save themselves from
the financial carnage of plummeting revenues as international
students chose to stay home, defer or move to another country with more
open borders.
Federal government data reveals that the number of
full-time equivalent jobs fell from 130,414 in March 2020 to 121,364 a year
later. But that data obscures the true total of job losses, as it does not
count casuals and those on fixed term-contracts.
The actual
number is probably about 27,000 says Andrew Norton, a higher education policy
expert from the Australian National University.
Most of the
job cuts were among professional workers, not academic staff, with full-time
equivalent numbers dropping from 73,620 in 2020 to 66,907 last year.
“It is a very
large number of job losses, but not quite as big as some of the apocalyptic estimates during 2020,” Mr Norton said.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/new-case-data-shows-the-power-of-the-booster-shot-20220214-p59wcl
New case data shows the power of the booster shot
Tom Burton Government editor
Feb 14, 2022
– 6.35pm
New Victorian
case data has underlined how effective third vaccination doses are against
acute illness from the omicron virus, with people who have completed their full
round of three doses 7.6 times less likely to end up in intensive care.
The data from
hospital records for February 8 also showed someone who was unvaccinated was
more than 34 times more likely to be in ICU than someone who had received three
doses.
Looking at
the state’s hospitalisation data since January 1, Chief Health Officer Brett
Sutton said someone with three doses is about 4.5 times less likely than
someone with two doses to go to hospital with COVID-19.
Based on
daily hospitalisation per 100,000 people there were 0.5 persons with three
doses, 2.3 persons with two doses and 3.08 persons with zero doses.
This means
someone with three doses is about six times less likely than an unvaccinated
person to go to hospital with the omicron variant of COVID-19.
-----
Climate Change.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/ipcc-report-to-focus-on-living-with-climate-change/news-story/b83bc194f1321d61ec3d6a66ed8dd756
IPCC report to focus on living with climate change
By Marlowe
Hood
AFP
4:08PM
February 14, 2022
Nearly 200
nations kicked off a virtual UN meeting late on Monday to finalise what is sure
to be a harrowing catalogue of climate change impacts – past, present and
future.
Species
extinction, ecosystem collapse, mosquito-borne disease, deadly heat, water shortages,
and reduced crop yields are already measurably worse due to global heating.
Just in the
past year, the world has seen a cascade of unprecedented floods, heatwaves and
bushfires across four continents.
All these
impacts will accelerate in the coming decades even if the carbon pollution
driving climate change is rapidly brought to heel, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change report is likely to warn.
A crucial,
40-page summary – distilling underlying chapters totalling thousands of pages,
and reviewed line-by-line – will be made public on February 28.
-----
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/origin-to-close-eraring-early-profit-rises-20220216-p59wx5
Origin to close Australia’s biggest coal plant early
Angela
Macdonald-Smith Senior resources writer
Updated Feb
17, 2022 – 12.07pm, first published at 8.31am
Origin Energy
is bringing forward the closure of its only coal-fired power plant by seven
years to 2025 in a move that will accelerate the reduction in its carbon
emissions but has heightened worries about security of supply and rising
prices.
The NSW
government announced plans to install a “super battery” to help replace the
2880-megawatt Eraring generator in NSW and act as a “shock absorber” in the
grid. Eraring, the country’s biggest coal-fired power generator, will now shut
down little more than two years after AGL Energy’s Liddell plant.
The decision
confirms the much more rapid exit of coal power from the National Electricity
Market as cheap renewables flood onto the market, despite coal power still
meeting the bulk of demand for electricity through the year.
Federal
Energy Minister Angus Taylor described the decision as “bitterly disappointing
for all energy users” as well as for the 400 workers at the plant.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/electricity-industry-executives-express-shock-disbelief-at-origins-eraring-power-plant-closure/news-story/d953b0bd2c3937b395c5a095470a6221
Electricity industry executives express shock, disbelief at Origin’s
Eraring power plant closure
Perry Williams
6:27PM
February 17, 2022
Shock,
disbelief and “you’ve got to be F kidding” were the early responses from
electricity industry executives after The Australian revealed the early closure of Eraring, the
nation’s biggest coal plant.
It’s no
secret that owners of coal plants are under immense pressure as ultra-cheap
solar and wind rout the economics of running baseload plants 24/7.
Still,
Origin’s decision to bring forward its retirement by a massive seven years to
2025 illustrates the much-hyped transition to clean energy will be rocky.
Eraring
supplies a quarter of NSW’s power needs and its move will spark two key fears:
that household electricity bills will soar as supply gets crunched and the
entire grid will face fresh volatility as a reliable source of energy
disappears.
There were
already concerns about the loss of AGL Energy’s Liddell coal plant in April
2023 and the retirement of Eraring just over two years later will pose a
serious risk to the stability of the nation’s power system.
-----
Royal Commissions And The Like.
-----
No entries in
this category.
-----
National Budget Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/quantitative-tightening-may-go-active-on-both-sides-of-the-tasman-20220213-p59w1i
Quantitative tightening may go active, on both sides of the Tasman
Grant Wilson Contributor
Feb 13, 2022
– 12.58pm
The ongoing
surge in global inflation is intensifying criticism of large-scale asset
purchases by central banks. Quantitative easing, as it has come to be known
since the global financial crisis, is no longer an esoteric concept, nor a
walled-off expert domain.
It is a lived
experience, that risks becoming a lightning rod.
Its impact is
no longer confined to exacerbating wealth inequality via asset price inflation,
principally houses and equities. The criticism also extends now beyond complex
issues of moral hazard for the financial sector.
QE is
reducing the real cashflow of least advantaged households all around the world.
This will
show up at the mid-terms in the US later this year. And it is writ large in the
crypto
sub-culture that has exploded over the past couple of years.
-----
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/02/14/reserve-bank-inflation-alan-kohler/
6:00am, Feb
14, 2022 Updated: 6:54pm, Feb 13
Alan Kohler: The Reserve Bank is fiddling while inflation burns
Alan Kohler
The Reserve
Bank is in danger of getting left behind by inflation, which means we’re all in
danger of getting left behind by galloping interest rates.
It was a
bravely relaxed RBA governor Philip Lowe who appeared before the House of
Representative standing committee on economics on Friday.
If I’d been
on the committee, I would have asked him: How high will interest rates have to
go?
To which he
would have replied, with a smile: “That depends.”
And then I
would have asked him: Is it true that the later you start raising rates, the
higher they will have to go?
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inflation-threat-poised-to-kill-pre-election-tax-cut-sweetener-20220213-p59vzt.html
Inflation threat poised to kill pre-election tax cut sweetener
By Shane Wright
February 14,
2022 — 5.00am
Ten million
low and middle-income earners face a tax increase as the federal government
debates whether to extend its $1080-a-year tax offset in next month’s
pre-election budget or risk adding to growing inflation pressures that could
force the Reserve Bank to lift official interest rates.
There are
increasing concerns within the government, which faces budget deficits for the
rest of the decade and gross debt surpassing $1 trillion by 2024-25, that while
extending the offset for another year may be vital to the Coalition’s
re-election chances, it could come at a huge economic cost.
The offset,
worth up to $1080 and available to people earning less than $126,000 a year,
has been extended by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in his past two budgets. On both
occasions, he said the offset would be important to supporting the economy
through the COVID-19 recession, describing it as a stimulus measure.
The measure,
which costs more than $7 billion, had been widely expected to be extended to
the 2022-23 financial year as an election sweetener in the March 29 budget.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rate-hike-expectations-firmly-in-2022-but-how-high-can-they-go-20220215-p59wkx
Rate hike expectations firmly in 2022, but how high can they go?
Ronald Mizen Economics
correspondent
Feb 15, 2022
– 2.20pm
The Reserve
Bank of Australia board says it is committed to patiently waiting for inflation
to be “sustainably” within its target band, but economists now view interest
rate hikes this year as a certainty.
The
Commonwealth Bank on Tuesday brought forward its tip for the first rise in the
record-low 0.1 per cent cash rate from August to June this year, and told
clients it expected a cash rate of 1 per cent by the end of 2022.
“Our
expectation is that the RBA will shift to an explicit hiking bias at the May
board meeting following a big upside surprise on the quarter two 2022 underlying
CPI,” CBA head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said.
While
acknowledging putting exact dates on rate hikes in a tightening cycle was
“false precision”, Mr Aird indicated it was the profile for rate hikes over the
next 12 months that mattered.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/retirees-face-biggest-cost-of-living-hike-in-11-years-20220210-p59vf0.html
Retirees face biggest cost of living hike in 11 years
By John Collett
February 15,
2022 — 11.00pm
Sharply
higher prices, led by petrol and healthcare, are hitting retirees in the hip
pocket, particularly those who live on their own.
Prices of
goods and services that home-owning retirees typically buy rose 3.5 per cent in
2021 – the fastest annual increase since 2010.
Retiree
home-owning singles faced even higher costs, with a rise of 3.9 per cent,
figures from the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) show.
About 250,000
people retire each year and there are now more
than four million Australians aged 65 or more.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-real-issue-is-how-higher-interest-rates-go-20220214-p59wce
The real issue is how high interest rates go
The RBA
may struggle to get real interest rates above negative territory any time soon.
John Kehoe Economics editor
Updated Feb
16, 2022 – 12.11pm, first published at 12.04pm
Although
August is firming as the most likely month for the Reserve Bank of Australia to
first increase interest rates, a much more important issue is, how high will
borrowing costs go over the next few years?
The answer
will not only determine the financial squeeze on indebted households.
The peak
interest rate will influence asset valuations for housing and shares, returns
for bank depositors and have implications for wages, productivity and
government debt sustainability.
It is a
critical issue, especially in light of new
figures from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia revealing about $500
billion of fixed rate mortgages are due to reset across the banks over the next
two years.
The current
average fixed rate of between 2.25 per cent and 2.5 per cent could almost
double to nearly 4 per cent as the home loans are refinanced.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/unemployment-steady-at-42-in-january/news-story/342a0d90767274bc0d8b5d1ac1d9b934
Unemployment steady at 4.2pc in January
Patrick Commins
February 17,
2022
Unemployment
was steady at 4.2 per cent in January but hours worked across the country
plunged by 9 per cent, as the Omicron wave which triggered severe staff
shortages across many industries did not translate into job losses.
The number of
employed Australians lifted by 12,900 to 13,255,000 people, seasonally adjusted
figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed.
Full-time
employment was down by 17,000 people, and part-time employment increased by
30,000 people.
The number of
employed suggested a resilient labour market at the start of the year, but the
impact of Omicron was seen in the 159 million fewer hours worked in January
than the month before – an 8.8 per cent drop.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-time-to-return-to-costello-economics-whoever-wins-the-federal-election-20220217-p59xam.html
It’s time to
return to Costello economics, whoever wins the federal election
Andrew Charlton
Co-Director of the e61 Institute for Economic Research
February 18,
2022 — 5.30am
Being the
treasurer of Australia isn’t easy. Voters only give you a pass mark if you
succeed in two very different tasks at the same time. They expect you to
prudently balance the federal budget, but they also want you to help balance
their own household budget with tax cuts and generous family payments.
This is much
easier said than done because balancing the federal budget means keeping
revenue high and spending low, while supporting family budgets often requires
the exact opposite: tax cuts and higher spending.
This is the
basic challenge that has faced every treasurer from the incumbent Josh
Frydenberg all the way back to Arthur Fadden in the Menzies government.
The maestro
in the modern era was, of course, Peter Costello (now chairman of Nine
Entertainment, owner of this masthead), who drove the electoral success of the
Howard government by consistently delivering both federal surpluses and family
tax cuts.
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/house-price-falls-will-cap-rba-rate-hikes-20220217-p59x78
House price falls will cap RBA rate hikes
The
Reserve Bank may only raise its cash rate to 1.25 per cent as house price
declines limit the magnitude of this hiking cycle, writes Christopher Joye.
Christopher Joye
Columnist
Feb 18, 2022
– 11.25am
Markets are increasingly
pricing in the likelihood of military conflict between Russia and the
Ukraine, which is amplifying volatility induced by the (belated) recognition
that the US
Federal Reserve will have to raise rates six to seven times this year
alongside other central banks.
On the one
hand, the overdue rates repricing could be spun as good news for equity and
correlated crypto investors. At the time of writing, US equities were getting
smashed, down 2.2 per cent on the day, as was bitcoin which had slumped 8.7 per
cent to US$40,216. In contrast, that bona fide inflation hedge, gold, continues
to climb.
You will
doubtless start hearing equity advocates argue that all the bad rates news is
in the price, which is true of 2022 if the Fed delivers on six to seven hikes.
To be clear, this was not in the price late last year when we repeatedly
highlighted these downside risks, and the market only expected three Fed
hikes in 2022. US equities have since declined about 9 per cent.
The bigger
problem for equities is the fact that the US market is still bizarrely only
pricing in a terminal Fed funds rate of just 1.87 per cent, which is miles
below the Fed’s “neutral” 2.5 per cent rate. It is further still from the
restrictive, circa 3 per cent plus cash rate the Fed thinks it would need to
impose to wrest an inflation spiral back to earth.
-----
Health Issues.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/opioids-give-osteoarthritis-sufferers-small-benefit-but-greater-risks-20220211-p59vsw.html
Opioids give osteoarthritis sufferers small benefit but greater risks
By Stuart Layt
February 14,
2022 — 12.01am
Opioid-based
drugs used to treat osteoarthritis have much smaller benefits than previously
thought, while also increasing the risk of harm to the patient.
Osteoarthritis
can be an extremely painful ongoing condition that causes joints to swell, and
which is often managed with painkillers.
However the
use of opioid drugs to manage chronic conditions has been the subject of much
research in recent years, with the potential for negative consequences,
especially long-term addiction issues.
Researchers
led by Christina Abdel Shaheed from the University of Sydney and Wasim Awal
from Griffith University combined the results of 36 studies from around the
world, comprising nearly 9000 patients.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/science/distress-therapy-isfailing-the-young/news-story/ff7d7abb1821f0ee499632e853a0685f
Distress therapy is failing the young
Natasha
Robinson
4:55PM
February 15, 2022
Early
intervention services are failing to improve the condition of young people with
mental health disorders, with a study of 1500 young people finding almost half
were experiencing “deteriorating and volatile” ill health in the two years
following therapy.
Another 16
per cent had “persistent impairment”, and just 19 per cent had stable good
functioning, according to the longitudinal study conducted by academics at the
University of Sydney’s Brain and Mind Centre.
“Our findings
suggest that the current primary care-based model meets the needs of only a
minority of young people seeking care, and that most require more comprehensive
and multidisciplinary approaches,” the authors of the study said. “Only 35 per
cent had good functional outcomes over two years; that is, only one in three
people maintained an initially good level of function or substantially improved
from a lower level of function.
“In contrast,
functional impairment persisted in nearly two-thirds of participants, or their
level of function deteriorated and was volatile.”
-----
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/the-first-steps-to-take-when-a-person-has-dementia-20220208-p59uop
The first steps to take when a person has dementia
The
symptoms and diagnosis may be scary and overwhelming, but among the myriad
questions is a raft of legal issues to consider.
Bina Brown Contributor
Feb 17, 2022
– 5.00am
It might
start with the constant search for glasses or keys and perhaps forgetting the
name of a recently visited restaurant, but the distinguishing factor between
forgetfulness and Alzheimer’s disease is the ability to retrace your steps to
find a lost object or recall the evening some time later.
For Nick
Sheldon, the first signs that Jane, his partner of 44 years, had the most
common form of dementia
was when she would repeatedly ask the same question soon after Nick had
answered.
Pretty soon,
things started to disappear and couldn’t be found. While Nick knew something
unusual was happening to this highly intelligent and organised woman, the
crunch came when Jane suggested to Nick that they should get married. His
nightmare day was when she left the apartment and it took eight hours for the
police and others to find her. She doesn’t remember it.
Visits to her
GP, a neurologist and geriatrician confirmed, through the myriad tests, that Jane
had Alzheimer’s disease.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/why-psychiatry-in-australia-needs-to-take-a-good-hard-look-at-itself-20220216-p59wu1
Why psychiatry in Australia needs to take a good, hard look at itself
Psychiatrists
in the UK are divided about the profession’s direction, but that’s not the case
here.
Theo Chapman Weekend Fin
editor
Feb 19, 2022
– 5.27am
In Australia,
there are few dissenting voices when it comes to the psychiatric treatment of
mental disorders, and the ones there are tend to have specific gripes about aspects
of psychiatry rather than being part of an organisation with stated criticisms.
Outside
Australia, however, traditional psychiatry is being systematically questioned
from within its own ranks. This process should be a civilised discussion,
informed by the results of well-designed studies, that leads to more effective
treatment.
Instead,
factions have formed and opposing views are shot down on Twitter and derided in
professional journals.
At the centre
of this storm is the Critical Psychiatry Network, which was founded in Britain
in 1999 and has about 350 member psychiatrists, a third of whom are outside the
UK.
The organisation
differs from mainstream psychiatric practises primarily in its belief that the
causes of mental health disorders, including bi-polar and schizophrenia, are
not solely the result of something happening in the body (the biological
disease model); what has happened to a person and the environment they live in
(the socio-psychological model) is equally important.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-on-a-collision-course-with-the-states-over-hospital-funding-20220219-p59xxa.html
Morrison on a collision course with the states over hospital funding
By Josh Gordon and James Massola
February 20,
2022 — 5.00am
The Morrison
government is on a collision course with the states over health funding months
out from the federal election, with premiers demanding up to $20 billion to
tackle the “extreme pressure” placed on the system by the COVID-19 pandemic.
A meeting of
state and federal health ministers on Friday ended in a deadlock, after the NSW
Liberal government distributed a list of state demands – including that the
Commonwealth extend the COVID-19 response deal with the states for an extra
year and abandon a 6.5 per cent growth cap on health funding, which has been
blamed for eroding the viability of the hospital system.
The February
18 document, obtained by The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald, also demands the
Morrison government agree to a fairer and more sustainable funding carve-up for
hospitals to “ensure a shared approach to public health funding in the new
COVID-normal operating environment”.
The deadlock
over health funding leaves the federal government facing a damaging health
funding squabble with both Liberal and Labor states less than three months out
from the federal election, which must be held by May 21
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/we-are-at-breaking-point-regional-australians-suffer-as-doctor-shortages-continue-20220215-p59wll.html
‘We are at breaking point’: Regional Australians suffer as doctor
shortages continue
By Andrew Taylor
February 20,
2022 — 9.00am
With stage
four breast cancer, time is not on Roz Richards’ side. But Richards, who lives
in Mount Hutton in Lake Macquarie, often waits more than one month to see a GP.
“I constantly
have to wait at least five weeks for an appointment,” she says. “This is not
acceptable as I need face-to-face appointments, as opposed to Telehealth
appointments.”
Richards has
no complaints about the care provided by her GPs, but says the difficulty in
securing appointments has prolonged her health issues and delayed treatment.
“I am anxious
and worried when I cannot get an appointment when I need one,” she says. “I am
falling behind in tests I have to have done.”
-----
International Issues.
-----
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/china-wants-to-become-world-s-most-influential-nation-us-20220213-p59vzs
China wants to become world’s most influential nation: US
Andrew Tillett
Political correspondent
Feb 13, 2022
– 3.04pm
The US is
warning its allies they face a “decisive decade” to stop China from re-writing
the international order to suit Beijing and become the world’s most influential
power.
The Biden
administration’s long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy, unveiled on the weekend,
commits the US to boosting diplomatic, economic and security ties across the
region, championing democracy and human rights, and supporting press freedom to
combat disinformation.
It emphasises
a need to build “resilience” in countries to help them make political decisions
free from coercion, while preserving international rules, including freedom of navigation
in the East and South China seas amid competing territorial claims.
“The People’s
Republic of China is combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and
technological might as it pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and
seeks to become the world’s most influential power,” the strategy said.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/why-boris-johnson-is-still-the-british-prime-minister-20220212-p59vvi.html
Why Boris Johnson is still the British Prime Minister
By Latika Bourke
February 13,
2022 — 4.30pm
London: Last
month it seemed like Britain might try to copy Australia’s record of the last
decade and reach for its fourth prime minister in six years. Now there’s a
chance Boris Johnson might survive.
Seriously wounded by
revelations that he and his staff hosted parties in Downing Street while
the rest of the country locked down, Johnson was waking up to headlines
threatening backbench revolts, led by the class of 2019 – the MPs he helped
elect at the end of that year.
To understand
how his position could have deteriorated from where he stood when he won an
80-seat majority to the situation he finds himself just one year later – having
to beg and cajole MPs against putting in letters against him – requires an
understanding of the original transaction that saw him replace Theresa May as
prime minister.
At the
beginning Johnson had just two jobs – defeat then Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
and end the Brexit deadlock that May could not achieve. Having completed those
tasks, Johnson and his ramshackle style are now in the spotlight.
And it’s not
to everyone’s taste.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/why-hungarys-election-has-gone-to-the-dogs/news-story/fa24b0945b9243266e546aa35a5c795b
Why Hungary’s election has gone to the dogs
By Oliver
Moody
The Times
February 14,
2022
Like so many
politicians aspiring to national office, Huba believes in a better and fairer
world.
In Huba’s
case, however, that better world involves ample scratches on the tummy and a
more equitable distribution of meaty treats.
Huba is one
of two dogs who have been put up for seats in Hungary’s parliament by a
satirical party that could play a decisive role at the general election in
seven weeks’ time.
The Hungarian
Two-Tailed Dog party (MKKP) was founded as a joke in 2006, with policies such as
free beer, eternal life and a Hungarian restaurant on Mars. At its first
electoral outing it only fielded candidates called Nagy Istvan, the Hungarian
equivalent of John Smith.
Vowing to
“make Hungary smaller again” – an allusion to the 1920 Treaty of Trianon, which
stripped Hungary of almost three quarters of the territory it had held before
the First World War – the party proposed ceding “unnecessary regions” of the
country to its neighbours.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/getting-inside-the-mind-of-putin/news-story/b62c7867f9efec2ee6f4a557985fa094
Getting inside the mind of Vladimir Putin
Paul Dibb
11:00PM
February 13, 2022
The danger of
war between Russia and Ukraine is hotting up. Despite endless talks with
Western leaders and their senior officials, Vladimir Putin continues a massive
build-up of Russia’s military capabilities all along Ukraine’s borders, as well
as in Belarus – which would be the shortest invasion route to Kiev.
US National
Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Friday: “We are in the window when an
invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it.”
According to reports of a call with European leaders, President Joe Biden now
believes Putin has decided to go ahead with an invasion of Ukraine, and
allegedly named specific dates when Washington believed it might happen. In
Melbourne, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “We’re in a window when
an invasion could begin at any time and, to be clear, that includes during the
Olympics.”
I need to
stress at the outset, I do not endorse Moscow’s belligerent attitude and the
threat being posed to the very peace of Europe. But we need to begin by
recalling what happened to the Soviet Union as it collapsed in 1991 and how
this calamity continues to dominate thinking in the Kremlin. Putin recalls the
Soviet collapse as a time when gross injustice was done to the Russian people:
“It was only when the Crimea ended up as part of a different country that
Russia realised that it had not simply been robbed but plundered.”
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/putin-us-intelligence-and-the-global-fight-for-the-ukraine-narrative-20220215-p59wic
Putin, US intelligence and the global fight for the Ukraine narrative
Gideon Rachman
Columnist
Feb 15, 2022
– 9.04am
I came across
someone out of his mind with anger on the streets of Berlin last week. A tall,
agitated man was hurling his bike around and screaming into the night air. The
theme of his discourse seemed to be that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin,
is the only trustworthy world leader and that the Americans are once again
trying to trick Germany into a war.
It is
tempting — but too sanguine — to dismiss scenes like that as meaningless. For the
Ukraine crisis is taking place in a period when conspiracy theories are
rife across the Western world. The leaders who are struggling to frame an
effective and united response to Russia know that public opinion is critical.
For every bike-throwing lunatic, there are many more citizens who are quietly
mistrustful of their governments.
Public
opinion in the West has rarely shown lower levels of trust in political
leaders. The annual Edelman Trust Barometer reported in January a “collapse of
trust in developed democracies” — with only 46 per cent of Germans, 44 per cent
of Britons and 43 per cent of Americans trusting their governments.
The struggle
over Ukraine is unfolding while the streets of Ottawa, Canada’s capital,
are choked with anti-vaxxers — with copycat demonstrations taking place in
Paris and planned for other western capitals. In the US, President Joe Biden still
has to contend with conspiracy theories about his son’s past business dealings
with Ukraine. In Britain, Boris Johnson, the prime minister has dabbled in
conspiracy theories himself.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-will-affect-australia-20220214-p59w85
How a Russian invasion of Ukraine will affect Australia
Ronald Mizen Economics
correspondent
Feb 14, 2022
– 5.49pm
A Russian
invasion of Ukraine could push oil prices above $US120 a barrel and lead to a
global supply shock that drives inflation higher and hits still-fragile
consumer confidence following the omicron COVID-19 wave.
With more
than 130,000 Russian troops staged on the Ukraine border, US officials
at the weekend warned an invasion could come at any time.
Higher oil
prices sparked by war would hit households at the petrol bowser and further
drive up headline inflation, said Andrew Ticehurst, economist and rates
strategist at Nomura Australia.
Oil
prices surged to seven-year highs on Monday and come after the national
average unleaded petrol price last week rose by 5 cents to a record 176.9 cents
a litre, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/canada-border-protest-police-seize-guns-from-group-linked-to-blockade-20220215-p59wgk.html
Canada PM Justin Trudeau invokes emergency powers to tackle trucker
protests
By Steve
Scherer and David Ljunggren
Updated
February 15, 2022 — 8.53amfirst published at 5.30am
Ottawa:
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday (AEDT) said the government
had invoked rarely used special measures allowing him to tackle protests that
have shut some border crossings and paralysed downtown Ottawa.
“The
blockades are harming our economy and endangering public safety,” Trudeau told
a news conference. “We cannot and will not allow illegal and dangerous
activities to continue.”
Frustration
has grown with what critics see as a permissive approach by police to the
demonstrations in the border city of Windsor, Ontario, and in Ottawa, the
nation’s capital, where protests entered a third week.
“Despite
their best efforts, it is now clear that there are serious challenges to law
enforcement’s ability to effectively enforce the law,” Trudeau said.
Protesters
blockaded the Ambassador Bridge, a vital trade route to Detroit, for six days
before police cleared the protest on Sunday.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/pentagon-says-china-s-support-for-russia-deeply-alarming-20220215-p59wh0
Pentagon says China’s support for Russia ‘deeply alarming’
Matthew Cranston and Michael Smith
Feb 15, 2022
– 12.15pm
Washington/Tokyo
| The Pentagon on Monday (Tuesday AEDT) called China’s “tacit support” for
Moscow in the Ukraine stand-off “deeply alarming”, as Western powers fear an
imminent Russian invasion of the ex-Soviet state.
Pentagon
press secretary John Kirby said China’s position would make the Ukraine crisis
even more challenging, as diplomats work overtime to defuse tensions.
“Their tacit
support, if you will, for Russia is deeply alarming,” Mr Kirby told reporters
of China. “And frankly, it’s even more destabilising to the security situation
in Europe.”
It was the
Biden administration’s strongest rebuke to China so far since President Xi
Jinping last
week backed Russia’s stand-off with the West over Ukraine and accused the
US and its allies, including Australia, of increasing the risk of an arms race.
-----
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-looming-threat-of-long-financial-covid-20220216-p59wwl
The looming threat of long financial COVID-19
Policymakers
need to recognise the risks to global recovery as vulnerable nations face the
spectre of a lost decade. They have been warned.
Martin Wolf Columnist
Feb 16, 2022
– 10.38am
Economic
activity contracted in 90 per cent of the world’s countries in 2020. This
exceeded the proportion hit by the two world wars, the Great Depression and the
global financial crisis.
A pandemic,
we now know, is a comprehensive disaster. It also bequeaths ill health and
social and economic disruption. Among the most long-lasting
legacies could be financial ones, especially in emerging and developing
countries. The spectre of a lost decade looms for vulnerable nations.
Determined action will be needed to prevent this.
That is the
theme of the latest World Development Report (WDR), entitled Finance for an
Equitable Recovery, prepared under the direction of World Bank chief economist,
Carmen Reinhart, a renowned expert on global finance. She notes: “In 2020, the
average total debt burden of low- and middle-income countries increased by
roughly 9 percentage points of the gross domestic product, compared with an
average annual increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous decades.
Fifty-one countries (including 44 emerging economies) experienced a downgrade
in their sovereign debt credit rating.” Fifty-three per cent of low-income
nations are now seen to be at high risk of debt distress.
Sharp rises
in indebtedness were a necessary response to the pandemic. Indeed, the problem
for most emerging and developing countries was that they could afford to borrow
too little, with grave results for their populations. Partly as a result,
COVID-19 has increased inequality not only inside countries, but also between
them. Not least, the number of people in extreme poverty jumped by 80 million
in 2020, the largest such rise in a generation.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/putin-names-his-price-for-peace-in-ukraine-20220216-p59wse
Putin names his price for peace in Ukraine
Hans van Leeuwen
Europe correspondent
Feb 16, 2022
– 4.51am
London |
Russian President Vladimir
Putin has said war can be avoided if Ukraine and the West issue a cast-iron
pledge never to allow Ukrainian membership of NATO, signalling his readiness to
“go down the negotiations track”.
German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, standing next to Mr Putin after a make-or-break meeting
in Moscow on Tuesday, said that although NATO and the EU did not agree with
Russia’s demands, “there are some points in there that are worth discussing”.
“The
diplomatic possibilities are far from being exhausted ... It should be possible
to find a solution,” he said.
The
constructive noises from the Scholz-Putin talks build on signals from the
Kremlin – reconfirmed by Mr Putin on Tuesday – that Moscow is about to withdraw
some of its forces from the border, raising hopes of a peaceful climbdown from
the brink of a Russian invasion.
But even as
the talks were going on, a cyber attack was reported on Ukraine’s defence
ministry and two of its banks, which Kyiv said could be Russian handiwork.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/putin-s-economy-is-primed-to-brush-off-the-west-s-threats-20220216-p59wtn.html
Putin’s economy is primed to brush off the West’s threats
By Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard
February 16,
2022 — 11.20am
Russia has
amassed foreign exchange reserves of $US635 billion ($888 billion), the fifth
highest in the world and rising. It has a national debt of 18 per cent of GDP,
the sixth lowest in the world, and falling.
The country
has cleaned up the banking system and has a well-run floating currency that
lets the economy roll with the punches.
It has a
budget surplus and does not rely on foreign investors to cover government
spending. It has slashed its dependency on oil state revenues. The fiscal
break-even cost of a barrel of oil fell to $US52 last year, down from $US115
before the invasion of Crimea in 2014.
It is the
paradox of Vladimir Putin’s tenure that he runs one of the most orthodox policy
regimes on the planet. “The macroeconomic team at the central bank and the
treasury are exemplary,” says Christopher Granville from TS Lombard.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-world-s-riskiest-debt-sector-is-booming-20220216-p59wwr.html
The world’s riskiest debt sector is booming
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior
business columnist
February 16,
2022 — 11.57am
There’s
something quite perverse and disconcerting about seeing banks and other
institutions flooding into the riskiest segment of debt markets even as
investors in an only slightly less-risky segment start to head for the exits.
There is a
rational, or at least semi-rational explanation for the divergence occurring at
the high-yield end of the markets and the money going into the riskiest of
loans.
Interest
rates have started rising in an environment for borrowers still being impacted
by the pandemic, however, and the seeds for a potential problem within the
global financial system are being sown.
The trends
are disturbing enough for regulators in the US and Europe to start issuing
statements of concern about the risks in the riskier loans markets and the
leveraged loan market in particular.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/putins-key-demand-impossible/news-story/195d0e8c248e0ff7577c46950f173947
Putin’s key demand impossible
Editorial
11:00PM
February 15, 2022
Whatever
happens in Ukraine, the West must remain implacable in rejecting Vladimir
Putin’s key demand in the crisis – that the Kremlin effectively should have a
power of veto over membership of NATO. The Russian despot wants Ukraine, a
nation of 43 million, to give up forever any ambition to join what has been the
West’s premier defence alliance for 70 years, protecting democracy in Europe
and fighting terrorism. Mr Putin’s outrageous presumption is based on the bogus
claim, propagated by the Kremlin, that Russia’s national security is under
threat from an eastwards push by NATO. The only threat to Europe’s established
borders is emanating from Mr Putin’s lawless aggression, just as it was in
2014 when he invaded and overran Crimea, breaking international law.
Mr Putin’s
real goal, to return Ukraine to Moscow’s domination as it was in Soviet times,
is central to the former KGB colonel’s desire to re-create the Soviet Union.
Giving in to his demand for a veto over which former Soviet satellite states be
allowed to join NATO or any group of democracies would be disastrous. Caving in
would invite further revanchism from Mr Putin.
Ukraine, as a
sovereign nation, has the right to join NATO. But there are stringent criteria
for accession that Kiev cannot meet when parts of its territory, such as
Crimea, are under occupation by Mr Putin’s proxies. There is scant likelihood
of Ukraine acceding to NATO membership in the foreseeable future. Yet Mr Putin
is using that as justification for his aggression, implying that what is
happening to Ukraine also could become the fate of other independent nations,
including the Baltic States. The West must be resolute in opposing his naked
imperialism in seeking to destroy Ukraine’s democratically elected government.
The stakes in the unfolding crisis are enormous.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/vladimir-putin-is-not-a-throwback-he-s-a-very-modern-leader-20220215-p59wpy
Vladimir Putin is not a throwback. He’s a very modern leader.
The Russian
President is trying to bury the old world, not re-create it and he has the
means and potentially the will to invade Ukraine. Welcome to our frightening
new world.
Tom McTague
Feb 18, 2022
– 5.00am
There is a
peculiar modern tendency to describe things we don’t like as belonging to the
past. The Taliban are medieval, Donald Trump supporters backward, Brexiteers
nostalgic for empire. Under this rubric, Vladimir Putin is a Soviet throwback
and the war he may soon start in Ukraine, as John Kerry once remarked, is like
some 19th-century skirmish transplanted into the 21st.
It is no
doubt a comfort to imagine that these things that do not conform to our ideas
of modernity are, therefore, not modern. To think this way means that we are
modern and on “the right side of history”. In this way of looking at the world,
all the bad things we see around us are like ghosts from the past whose deathly
grip on progress might frustrate it for a while, and with potentially terrible
consequences, but who cannot stop its wheels from eventually grinding on. This
is, of course, total nonsense.
As brutal as
the Taliban is, just like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, it is not a medieval
organisation but the product of our globalised age of digital propaganda,
social media, and the like. Similarly, Trumpism is an expression not of 1950s
America, but of today’s America.
And then
there’s Putin, who, whatever we want to believe, is a man very much of our
world. In fact, not only is he as modern as any Western leader but, compared
with those who seem to think that modernity equates with sometime around the
year 2000, he is considerably more modern.
-----
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/test-of-nerves-recession-fears-are-gripping-the-us-20220218-p59xjy.html
Test of nerves: Recession fears are gripping the US
By Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard
February 18,
2022 — 11.05am
Warnings of
an economic recession in the US are growing louder. Liquidity is drying up and
the cost of borrowing has suddenly broken its moorings.
“The Federal
Reserve is tightening into a cyclical slowdown and the risks are rising,” said
Lakshman Achuthan, head of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) in New
York.
“Either the
Fed will blink and give up on rate hikes or it will forge ahead until something
breaks, meaning a stock market crash, or a recession, or both,” he said.
ECRI relies
on early warning signals that catch turning points long before they are evident
to laymen. As they say in ice hockey, you skate to where the puck is going, not
where it is.
Monetarists
are edging towards the same conclusion by a different route. For the last two
years they have been the scourge of the New Keynesian establishment and the
major central banks. They predicted correctly that inflation would approach
double digits in the US, UK, and parts of Europe, as a mechanical consequence
of extreme money creation 12 to 18 months earlier.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/how-the-west-can-confront-the-xiputin-axis/news-story/d969872b8dfc35d006d0f165395d46b1
How the West can confront the Xi-Putin axis
By James
Forsyth
The Times
February 18,
2022
A new phase
of history has begun. The liberal world order faces its greatest challenge
since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989: not just with Russia’s actions on
the border with Ukraine but China’s manoeuvrings in Asia. The burgeoning
friendship between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping might be based on the idea
that my enemy’s enemy is my friend. But it is no less of a threat for that.
Moscow and
Beijing are united by a desire to end the US-led world order. Both want their
spheres of influence acknowledged and respected. Both fear the spread of
democracy and want to make the world safe for autocratic regimes.
One immediate
benefit for Russia and China of their closer links is they can force the US to
split its attention between two theatres. Joe Biden pulled out of Afghanistan
to focus better on China but now finds himself warning Americans about the
economic consequences of a land war in Europe. US troops are heading to Nato’s
eastern flank, the Pentagon is working out how to resupply Ukraine over land in
the event of a conflict, and the State Department and the White House are
involved in frantic diplomacy. It’s a win for Russia, which craves attention,
and a win for China, which doesn’t. Tellingly, the Russian troop build-up has
been made possible in part by the fact that, according to experts, there are
fewer forces on Russia’s border with China and Mongolia than at any point in
the past 100 years.
-----
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/fighter-jets-are-suddenly-all-the-rage-in-asia-20220216-p59x5a
Fighter jets are suddenly all the rage in south-east Asia
As
geopolitical tensions ratchet up in the region, so are budgets for military
spending – with state-of-the-art aircraft topping the shopping list for many
countries.
Emma Connors South-east
Asia correspondent
Feb 18, 2022
– 11.56am
Singapore |
Master Sergeant Joshua Forest and his colleagues from the US Air Force struck
out at the Singapore Airshow this year. The space allotted to the two Lockheed
Martin F-35 stealth fighter jets they were guarding was in the far corner of
the display field, a long walk in the tropical sun from the air-conditioned
exhibition halls.
But Forest, a
maintenance specialist, said many had made the trek. “Yep, we’ve had plenty of
military folks come by. There’s a lot of interest in fighter jets in this part
of the world. These countries are growing, they want to protect their trade and
they have some security concerns.”
Australia is
among the US allies that have F-35s in their fleets, along with South Korea
and Japan. Singapore will follow soon. Thailand has also expressed an interest,
though it’s not clear if Washington will allow that sale to go through or if
Thailand’s defence ties with China will sink it.
Washington has
cleared the way, however, for Indonesia to purchase Lockheed Martin F-15s, as
south-east Asia’s largest country sets off on an aviation shopping spree. Last
week the F-15 news came hot on the heels of confirmation Jakarta had inked a
deal to buy Dassault Rafale fighter jets from France.
-----
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/massive-blasts-hit-ukraine-after-car-bomb/news-story/297812f13afd4901957b034914f524b8
Massive blasts hit Ukraine after car bomb
Two blasts
have rocked Ukraine just hours after a car belonging to a pro-Russian rebel
leader was blown up in a suspected ruse to give Vladimir Putin an excuse for
war.
Nick Parker,
Jerome Starkey, Katie Davis and The Sun
February 19,
2022 - 11:26AM
Explosions
have reportedly been heard in the Russian separatist city of Luhansk in eastern
Ukraine just 40 minutes apart amid fears of an “imminent” invasion, The
Sun reports.
Part of a gas
pipeline caught fire late on Friday after being struck by a “powerful
explosion”, Interfax news agency reported. It comes hours after a car bomb was
detonated in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine.
Major General
Denis Sinenkov was not believed to be in his car when the huge blast shook the
separatist-held city.
It was feared
to be a Kremlin-inspired “false flag” con to give Vladimir Putin his excuse to
invade Ukraine – as his fighting force rose to 190,000.
-----
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/putin-has-made-the-decision-to-invade-ukraine-biden/news-story/ec1764213b6bc1e83f69edd2fccb61b4
Putin has ‘made the decision’ to invade Ukraine: Biden
Simon Benson
AFP
February 19,
2022
US President
Joe Biden believes Russian leader Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine
and that the attack could begin “in the coming days.”
“As of this
moment, I’m convinced he’s made the decision. We have reason to believe that,”
Mr Biden said, adding that Washington has “significant intelligence capability”
to back the claim.
“We believe
they will target Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent
people,” he said of Russian forces.
But with US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken scheduled to speak with Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday, Mr Biden said there was still time for
negotiations to defuse the crisis.
“Diplomacy is
always a possibility,” he told a press conference overnight.
-----
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/ukraine-conflict-live-updates-massive-explosion-rebels-declare-full-military-mobilisation/news-story/5ca8525d6d5a73cf3dbf68a5a66e9fce
Ukraine conflict live updates: Massive explosion, rebels declare full
military mobilisation
Rebel
leaders in Ukraine have called the situation “critical” and announced a
“general mobilisation”. Follow our live coverage.
Staff writers
February 20,
2022 - 8:29AM
The conflict
between Russia and Ukraine is heating up, with a “powerful explosion” rocking a
gas pipeline near Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
The blast has
been blamed on sabotage, according to Tatiana Bogorodko, the head of
Luhanskgas, which manages the gas pipeline.
European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech that the “world has
been watching in disbelief” as Russia masses troops on the border with Ukraine.
Russia has repeatedly denied having plans to invade.
Rebels in
eastern Ukraine have declared a full military mobilisation, just hours after
they ordered women and children to evacuate to southern Russia due to fears of
a conflict.
-----
I look
forward to comments on all this!
-----
David.
