December 19, 2019 Edition.
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This week Trump will get impeached by the House and the acquitted by the Senate. Fire and fury but necessary to show him someone is watching. He also has achieved a partial trade deal with China which may calm things down for a while. North Korea continues to protest by firing missiles! Even more serious is that the implementation of the Paris Climate Accords seems to be getting further away from success. Very scary!
Boris won big in the election this time last week and we can now be sure Brexit will happen. Stand by for extended negotiations over the next few years to see what it actually means!
In Australia ScoMo is under a lot of pressure to be seen to be doing more on the bush-fires while the new MYEFO will be being dissected to see responses on aged care, the fires etc. The silly season is fast drawing in and news will dry up soon! For ScoMo it has come early with him off on an overseas holiday till next year! No-one even knows where he is!
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Major Issues.
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Warning on millions of Australians who struggle to work more hours
By David Crowe
December 8, 2019 — 12.00am
Millions of Australians are struggling to work more hours and lift their earnings in a "gig economy" that suppresses wage growth, according to new research that reveals key pressure points across the country.
The nation’s outer suburbs and regions are suffering most from the barriers to greater employment, in a challenge hidden by the nation’s headline 5.3 per cent unemployment rate.
Labor will cite the research on "under-utilisation" to warn on Sunday that about two million Australians are not getting what they need from the labour market.
Labor frontbencher Clare O’Neil will liken the trend to a "drought" for workers who need more work, saying the two million Australians "want to have a go but can’t get a go" under the Morrison government.
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The missing ingredient in the market's bull run
Dec 7, 2019 — 12.00am
Investors are fixated on low interest rates but some fund managers are worried that weak profits could turn out to be the market's Achilles heel – earnings have been missing in action as the benchmark hovers near record highs.
Blue chips such as Woolworths, Wesfarmers and Commonwealth Bank have all surfed a wave of investor demand for companies with steady earnings, relatively safe dividends, and the comfort of a household name.
But that enthusiasm has consequences. In November, as the market surged to a fresh high, stocks such as Woolworths and Commonwealth Bank traded at multi-decade, if not record, valuations.
“It’s all about interest rates being low,” says Dr Don Hamson, chief investment officer at Plato Investment Management, speaking about the market gains. “Yields are around 1 per cent, which is incredibly low, and that justifies high valuations for all sorts of assets.”
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Who’s the boss in Canberra’s shake-up?
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has promised another round of public service reforms and lets hope they start from the top with the ministry.
You can debate the merits of the department mega-mergers unveiled last week but what is left is a governance nightmare with up to four ministers in charge of the one department.
The concept of ministerial responsibility is completely lost in a department like Innovation, Industry, Resources, Small Business and Science.
Where are the lines to be drawn from the Minister’s office to the Department and who does department head David Fredericks answer to when he four minister demanding his attention.
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Hayne rebukes directors on climate risk failure
The former High Court judge says directors cannot hide behind "learned helplessness" as an excuse not to act, and lashed the "short-termism" of national debate.
Dec 9, 2019 — 12.00am
Former High Court judge and royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne has warned directors they have a legal duty to act on climate change risk, include it in corporate strategies and report on it to shareholders, raising the real prospect that boards failing to act could end up in court.
In a private address to business leaders, regulators and government officials hosted by think tank, the Centre for Policy Development, Mr Hayne also took a swipe at the Morrison government, which has come under criticism for its unambitious emissions reduction policies.
He said both "learned helplessness" and "short-termism" yielded "a result that fits comfortably with those who still see climate change as a matter of belief or ideology".
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What Kenneth Hayne says about climate change
Learned helplessness and short-termism suit those who still see climate change as a matter of belief or ideology, but the obligations directors have for the good of their companies are very clear.
Kenneth Hayne
Dec 9, 2019 — 12.00am
This is an edited transcript of remarks Kenneth Hayne, QC, made at the Centre for Policy Development’s Business Roundtable on Climate and Sustainability on November 21.
A director acting in the best interests of the company must take account of, and the board must report publicly on, relevant climate-related risks and issues. David Rowe
Previous speakers have emphasised the need for system-wide response. Systemic response is essential. But for the moment, I want to stand the issue on its head and look at it from the individual entity’s point of view.
Three things are clear. First, I think the relevant law is clear. Directors must act in the best interests of the company.
'Best interests' is not one-dimensional – it is not determined only by share price movement or 'total shareholder return' over a period.
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No more room for excuses on climate
Kenneth Hayne's blunt warning to company directors will register: directors can’t hide behind confused politics and “culture wars” to evade their duties to act on climate change because the law and the science are clear.
Dec 9, 2019 — 12.00am
Company directors can no longer hide behind flaky excuses – such as the difficulty of shifting fossil fuel-heavy industries to clean energy, the lack of political consensus or an imaginary lack of scientific consensus – for failing to take account of climate risks and failing to tell investors what steps they are taking to reduce those risks.
Hayne pointedly attributes these bad habits to a state of “learned helplessness” – directors convincing themselves that it’s all too hard or that Australia’s small economy can’t shift the dial on a global problem – and “entrenched short-termism”.
He doesn’t single any company out, but examples abound. On Friday, Washington H Soul chairman Robert Milner shut down the annual meeting to duck questions on the climate risks facing the company’s coal mining subsidiary New Hope Corp.
Hayne’s blunt speaking and national profile ... will ensure the remarks reach a wide audience. Directors will sit up and take notice.
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Bill Shorten least popular leader since 1990: election study
By David Crowe
December 9, 2019 — 12.00am
Voters swung behind Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the strength of their concerns about the economy and personal leadership, says a major new study that reveals the key factors in this year’s election.
Mr Morrison enjoyed relatively strong popular appeal but former Labor leader Bill Shorten was the least popular major party leader in decades, leading the academic study to name him as a key factor in the party’s failure.
The result has also damaged confidence in the wider political system, with Mr Morrison’s rise to the leadership considered a reason for weakening trust in government and satisfaction with democracy.
The study of the May election found that Mr Morrison was the most popular leader since Kevin Rudd led Labor to the 2007 election, using a popularity scale of zero to 10 and drawing on surveys with thousands of voters.
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Australians’ trust in politicians and democracy hits an all-time low: new research
December 5, 2018 1.15pm AEDT
Authors
Professor of Governance and Director of Democracy 2025 - bridging the trust divide at Old Parliament House, University of Canberra
Fellow and Centenary Professor, Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra
Research Fellow at the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra, University of Canberra
Over the past four years, we have conducted a range of attitudinal surveys with the Social Research Institute at Ipsos on the relationship between trust in the political system and attitudes towards democracy in Australia.
Our latest research, conducted in July 2018 (prior to the Liberal Party’s leadership spill), includes a quantitative survey of a representative sample of 20 focus groups and 1,021 Australians from a wide range of demographic backgrounds. We understood political trust in this survey as “keeping promises and agreements”.
Our findings should give all democrats pause for thought. We continue to find compelling evidence of an increasing trust divide between government and citizens. This is reflected in the decline of democratic satisfaction and receding trust in politicians, political parties and other key institutions (especially media). We also found a lack of public confidence in the capacity of government to address public policy concerns.
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ABC to grapple with budget freeze, 200 redundancies expected
By Jennifer Duke
December 9, 2019 — 12.00am
The ABC's board and management will meet this week to decide on a five-year strategy that could see 200 jobs axed as budget pressure hits the public broadcaster.
The $1 billion-a-year taxpayer-funded broadcaster's executives, including managing director David Anderson, and directors will meet on Monday to focus on the role of the ABC in a disrupted media landscape, with sources familiar with the planned discussions saying the likely changes could reduce the workforce back to Howard-era levels.
The ABC is five months into a three-year freeze on any growth in its budget in a government-imposed indexation pause initially projected to shave a total of $84 million off expected annual funding. The ABC's directors are also due to meet for a scheduled board meeting on Tuesday, with these same issues likely to be on the agenda.
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2019 Australian federal election: results from the Australian Election Study
6 Dec 2019
The Australian Election Study (AES) is the leading study of political attitudes and behaviour in Australia. The study has surveyed voters for over thirty years, since 1987, providing an unparalleled source of evidence on voter attitudes towards politics in Australia. The AES provides insights into what explains voters’ choices in elections as well as public opinion on a range of policy issues. In addition to providing a long-term perspective on stability and change in the Australian electorate, the AES examines the issues and personalities in each election and evaluates their importance in shaping election results.
This report presents findings from the 2019 Australian Election Study (AES). The AES surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,179 voters after the 2019 Australian federal election to find out what shaped their choices in the election. The AES has fielded representative surveys after every federal election since 1987, which allows these results to be placed in a long-term context. This report provides insights into what informed voting behaviour in the election and voters’ attitudes towards policy issues, the political leaders, and the functioning of Australian democracy generally.
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The 34 words from Alexander Downer that set off an FBI firestorm
Alexander Downer's now-famous cable helped trigger an FBI counter-intelligence probe into Trump's 2016 campaign "on the thinnest of suspicions".
Updated Dec 10, 2019 — 9.24am, first published at 9.21am
Washington | It was the paragraph that set off a thundering judicial and political storm that continues to hover over US presidential politics.
Just 34 words long, the key element of former London High Commissioner Alexander Downer's cable to Canberra would become the main trigger for the FBI's controversial counter-intelligence operation into Donald Trump's 2016 campaign.
While Mr Downer's unwitting role in unleashing what ultimately turned into Robert Mueller's traumatic two-year Russia probe has been known about for a while, a long-anticipated watchdog's report released in Washington on Monday (Tuesday AEDT) has given fresh support to what Mr Trump and his supporters have been saying all along: that the FBI's so-called Crossfire Hurricane probe was set off by a hair trigger.
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A bold escape from a negative rate world
The Riksbank will be the first central bank in Europe to exit negative rates, which have fostered political and social discontent without any material economic recovery.
Kate Samranvedhya
Dec 10, 2019 — 12.00am
Negative interest rate policies around the world have been somewhat perplexing for many investors who have been accustomed to positive yielding risk-free rates of returns.
In the coming weeks, significant change may be in the air, as parts of the world consider moving away from negative rates, likely starting with the Swedish central bank, Riksbank, in mid-December. Such a move may trigger a re-examination of negative interest rate policy throughout the world.
Europe has been the epicentre of negative rates policy since the European Central Bank took rates below zero in 2015. Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland followed the ECB with negative rates policies to help stem excessive currency appreciation of their own currencies against the euro.
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It's not the right time to cash in our recession insurance
Money is cheap and there is a case for stimulus spending. But acting now will just make the next downturn harder.
Dec 9, 2019 — 12.43pm
The Reserve Bank has been encouraging the government to break open the piggy bank to help the economy move faster. And there’s certainly a good case for that.
But there’s at least as good a case for the Feds to hold off on extra stimulus.
The Bank’s view is well known, but here’s a recap:
- Australia has slowed: Unemployment is up, wage gains are at risk of backpedalling, and growth is well below trend.
- Inflation is stubborn: Inflation is harder to get moving than it used to be – the RBA has cut its view of ‘full employment’ to an unemployment rate of 4½ per cent, down from the earlier 5 per cent.
- So the task is big: To get unemployment down to 4½ per cent means creating 200,000 more jobs.
- Yet the Reserve Bank is almost out of ammo: To get an extra 200,000 jobs, you would need to cut the RBA’s cash rate by 3 percentage points. But today’s cash rate is just 0.75 per cent.
- Whereas the Feds have more ammo: The federal budget is back near balance. If we need to, Australia can use fiscal firepower in a way that few other nations can.
- The fall in interest rates adds to the case for action: The biggest economic story of 2019 isn’t the global trade wars, it’s the further collapse in global borrowing costs. The case for governments to fund long-lived public works is stronger when borrowing costs are lower.
That’s a persuasive case. If we ‘do more’ – if the Reserve keeps cutting and heads into quantitative easing, and if the Feds boost infrastructure (perhaps via the States) and even bring forward extra tax cuts – then more jobs would be created and wage growth would lift.
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RBA signals cheques are on the way out
By Shane Wright
December 10, 2019 — 9.05am
The cheque may soon no longer be in the mail with the Reserve Bank signalling the payment system may have to end.
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe on Tuesday said the days of the cheque were numbered while revealing Australians were also quickly giving up on cash as they moved to tap-and-go and other electronic forms of payment.
Addressing the Australian Payments Network Summit in Sydney, Dr Lowe revealed the bank's traditional survey of payment systems has found another huge fall in the use of cheques.
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Morrison releases new draft of religious discrimination bill with 11 key changes
By Judith Ireland
December 10, 2019 — 11.24am
The definition of a "religious body" that will be able to hire and fire staff on religious grounds will be expanded under the Morrison government's proposed religious discrimination laws, while conscientious objection provisions for health practitioners will be narrowed.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Attorney-General Christian Porter released a second draft of their religious discrimination bill on Tuesday, following about 6000 written submissions and an avalanche of criticism from church, business and community groups about its first effort.
Mr Morrison said Australians held diverse beliefs and this was "a key part of who we are as a country".
"This is a bill for all Australians," he told reporters in Sydney. "Australia is a country of respect and of tolerance."
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We think we're waiting for PM to act, but bigger forces are at work
Sean Kelly
Columnist and former adviser to Labor prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.
December 9, 2019 — 12.10am
This has been a year of waiting. First, we waited for an election to be called. Then we waited for a humdrum election to be over. That election turned out to be less humdrum than we thought, but that only led us to a new period of waiting: for an unexpected government to announce policies, and an unexpected opposition to show us what sort of an opposition it would be. With two weeks until Christmas, we are still stuck in limbo, the political equivalent of the doctor’s waiting room.
The second-biggest question about the Morrison government, for which we have only the faintest tea leaves, is whether it will be good at policy. Perhaps, if you’re asking that question 16 months after someone becomes prime minister, you already have your answer. But it is also possible, if you squint slightly, to see the Prime Minister’s reign the way he might: he took over; then it was Christmas; then he had to win an election; then the real policy work began, behind closed doors; then it was Christmas again.
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The meltdown in the global financial system's 'plumbing' was more disturbing than it appeared
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist
December 9, 2019 — 2.05pm
When one of the more arcane bits of the global financial system’s plumbing seized up in September the authorities were quick to dismiss it as a one-off event. It’s now clear the meltdown in the US "repo" market was due to circumstances that were more complex and disturbing than the initial diagnosis suggested.
Significantly, the malfunctioning of the US repo market showed the policies of central banks and prudential regulators have changed the roles and diminished the capacity of banks to respond to stresses in key parts of the financial system.
The increased involvement of the shadow banking sector in financial markets in the post-crisis era also appears to have been a major factor in the convulsions within a market that greases the wheels of global finance.
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Climate inaction is 'galling' says ex-fire boss
Dec 11, 2019 — 8.06am
A former NSW fire chief helping fight unprecedented bushfires across the state says federal government inaction on climate change is "galling" and politicians are continuing to gag debate.
Ex-fire and rescue commissioner Greg Mullins was part of a coalition of former fire bosses who in November said Canberra should declare a climate emergency in the face of a "new age of unprecedented bushfire danger".
A month on, he says political leaders have continued stifling debate because "if you don't have an answer for something you try and divert the conversation".
"The [federal] government's inaction is galling," he said.
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Business braces for onset of climate lawfare
Kenneth Hayne's warning to directors over climate risk won't change the inevitability of more climate lawfare internationally and domestically. The impact on business overwhelms the views of the Morrison government.
Dec 10, 2019 — 4.15pm
Kenneth Hayne’s warning to company directors about the need to respond to climate-change issues and record those responses in their financial reports is a statement of the legally obvious.
A range of regulators, both domestic and international, have already made the urgency of addressing this new responsibility clear to companies.
What is not at all clear is whether the form and extent of those responses will be considered adequate by any number of interested parties. Nor are arguments over relative costs and the interpretation of best interests clarified. And that inevitably means this issue will be repeatedly tested by courts and lawyers over years.
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More than 720 homes lost in NSW fires as Sydney told to brace for huge losses
December 11, 2019 — 10.29am
The fire danger remains elevated across large chunks of NSW despite a southerly wind change that brought temperatures down as it swept up the coast.
The Rural Fire Service, meanwhile, has confirmed more than 720 homes have been destroyed over the fire season. Six lives have also been lost in NSW so far this bushfire season.
"Unfortunately the number of homes destroyed in this fire season continues to rise - now 724 homes confirmed lost. 2.7 million hectares burnt," RFS deputy commissioner Rob Rogers said on Twitter on Wednesday.
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Morrison is perfecting the seal on his own personal Canberra bubble
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
December 11, 2019 — 12.00am
If you think Scott Morrison’s been busy doing not very much since the election in May, you are much mistaken. In truth he’s been very busy doing stuff of not much interest to you. But sometimes it pays to take an interest in things that don’t seem of interest.
For instance, I wouldn’t expect you to have taken much interest in the reshuffle of government departments he announced on Friday. But I’ve been reading up on it and been amazed – or appalled – by what I’ve learnt.
Scott Morrison has revealed four departments will go and five secretaries will lose their jobs in a shake up of the public service.
It’s said to be the most dramatic overhaul of the federal public service since 1987, cutting the number of departments from 18 to 14 while creating four new mega-departments and removing five departmental secretaries, three of them women.
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Drought impact tipped to be worst in six decades as sheep numbers tumble
By Shane Wright
December 10, 2019 — 4.03pm
The national sheep flock is expected to collapse to its smallest size since 1904 amid warnings the drought's impact on the economy and the agricultural sector will linger for up to a decade.
Analysis by the rural forecaster suggests the farm sector is facing its toughest period since the 1950s, when drought and the end of the Korean War wool boom hit producers across most of the nation.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) on Tuesday said it now expected farm production to fall another 3 per cent through 2019-20. It would be the third successive annual decline, the first time that had occurred in 63 years.
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No rain ’til April, BoM tells ministers
There will be no relief for drought-ravaged regions over the summer, with Bureau of Meteorology officials telling a meeting of state and federal ministers there would be no significant rain until at least April.
The ministers gathered in Moree, in NSW’s northwest, to discuss the best strategies to combat the enduring drought.
Federal Drought and Water Resources Minister David Littleproud vowed to work with drought co-ordinator-general Shane Stone by February to cut bureaucratic red tape so desperate farmers did not have to make separate state and federal applications for assistance.
Mr Littleproud said he was hopeful states would do more to assist farmers after South Australia announced on Tuesday that it would give rebates on council rates and pastoral leases for drought-affected farmers.
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New APRA heatmap measure will lead to a better informed public
First things first: Comparing super funds and highlighting the weaker performers is a very useful and welcome exercise.
The measurement system for comparing low-cost MySuper products launched on Tuesday is not perfect, but it offers a comparison that is backed by the prudential regulator of Australia and that will be good enough for the vast majority of people.
Even Industry insiders might be surprised to see “big names” such as Westpac or Christian Super doing so poorly.
In reality, almost any big super fund can make itself sound relatively successful to the wider public by highlighting what it might define as important for savers.
However, in the end, if a fund is consistently behind the market or behind its key rivals then the arguments for the defence will fall flat.
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Job fears dent Westpac confidence index
Consumer confidence has sagged in December, giving up around half of the prior month’s gains as concerns about job losses rose to a two-and-a-half year high.
The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute, released on Wednesday, showed sentiment fell 1.9 per cent to 95.1 points in December, remaining below the 100-point neutral mark for the sixth consecutive month.
The fall brings the index closer to its more than four-year low of 92.8 points hit in October.
It comes as the survey’s index of unemployment expectations rose 1.1 per cent to 138 in December, to a two-and-a-half year high, up 14.1 per cent from the same time last year.
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'Sydney is angry': Protesters march to demand urgent action on climate change
By Laura Chung and Matt Bungard
Updated December 11, 2019 — 7.35pmfirst published at 5.55pm
An estimated 20,000 protesters marched from Town Hall to Hyde Park on Wednesday evening, taking over George Street to demand stronger climate action as bushfires continue to rage across the state.
The event, titled "NSW is Burning, Sydney is Choking - Climate Emergency Rally!", was swiftly set up on Facebook last week by Extinction Rebellion, Uni Students for Climate Justice, and Greens MP David Shoebridge, in response to horrendous air conditions and ongoing bushfires across the state.
Buses were diverted away from Elizabeth Street and Park Street because of the march, with some buses delayed by up to 30 minutes and more than 60 routes affected.
After a series of speeches, the crowd began marching down York Street at 6.40pm, before turning onto Park Street and heading east towards Elizabeth Street and Hyde Park.
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Slowdown will demand significant stimulus: Westpac’s Evans
Westpac’s highly-regarded chief economist, Bill Evans, predicts a further slowing of the global economy that will require significant new policy stimulus in 2020.
In his year ahead outlook released on Friday, Mr Evans forecasts a slowdown in OECD growth to 1.2 per cent in 2020 from 1.7 per cent in 2019 and 2.3 per cent in 2018.
The slowdown is expected to be mostly across the board and “complicated” by a further slowdown in China.
Mr Evans sees US growth slowing to 1.6 per cent in 2020 from 2.3 per cent in 2019.
Europe is predicted to grow by 1 per cent, from 1.2 per cent and Japan is tipped to expand just 0.1 per cent, versus 0.8 per cent. Meanwhile he sees Australian growth remaining at a sub-trend pace of 2.1 per cent.
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Adjusting to climate risks is only prudent
According to Kenneth Hayne, former High Court judge and commissioner of last year’s financial services royal commission, Australian company directors need to spend more time worrying about climate change.
Reading the royal commission’s report, one might have thought they should have other priorities on their minds, such as not breaking the law. And this week’s ruling from the New York Supreme Court, dismissing charges that ExxonMobil committed fraud by not disclosing climate change-related liabilities, casts serious doubts on hyped-up claims about directors’ responsibilities for carbon emissions.
But with bushfires blazing, our cities enveloped in smoke and the drought inflicting a punishing toll on farmers and country communities, Hayne’s suggestion that too little is being done to avert the risks of climate change merely adds to what has become a deafening roar.
So far, the government has largely ignored the mounting chorus, preferring to focus on practical measures to address the immediate crisis. However, by not engaging, it loses the public debate and wastes the opportunity to consider whether the approach successive governments have adopted continues to make sense.
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Climate politics are truly bizarre
As Sydney choked in bushfire smoke, the Labor party headed to the coal belt and the Coalition fell over itself as it stampeded rhetorically in the other direction.
Dec 12, 2019 — 4.12pm
Bob Brown's letter published in The Australian Financial Review on Thursday pretty much sums up the mindset of the Australian Greens, the party he founded.
In his letter, Brown disagrees with the post-election orthodoxy, referenced by this reporter, that the convoy he led from Victoria to Queensland smack bang in the middle of the election campaign to protest the Adani coal mine had backfired.
Both Labor and the Coalition, anecdotally and in their post-election reviews, said that convoy so angered locals whose livelihoods depended on coal mining, either directly or indirectly, that they swarmed towards the Coalition and independents, costing Labor vital seats it needed to win government.
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inconsistent with the best interests of the client or the other provisions of the code”.
Yes, Prime Minister, it is a national disaster
The PM has lost control of the discussion on natural disasters. That may yet shape how the public views him.
Dec 13, 2019 — 4.45pm
In February this year – though it feels a lifetime of disasters ago now – Townsville and areas of central Queensland were hit by catastrophic floods.
Five deaths were linked to the floods, which damaged around 3300 homes.
In the bush, which was in the grips of drought, the damage was devastating, including to the national cattle herd. Half a million cattle were estimated to have died in the floodwaters and their aftermath.
Governments were quick to act, and to be seen to be acting.
At an event on March 1 to discuss the consequences of the floods in a shop that had been inundated, Scott Morrison recounted his previous visit to Townsville and talked of the various measures the government was taking to help with reconstruction.
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Fires spread a pall of depression
The fires and blanketing smoke have spread a pall of depression over what has been the plucky country. That will be hard for Scott Morrison to ignore.
Dec 13, 2019 — 10.14am
In 2006, Tourism Australia boss Scott Morrison oversaw the advertising campaign featuring a bikini-clad Lara Bingle emerging from the water at Fingal Spit in northern NSW, and exclaiming: “So where the bloody hell are you?”
Updated, Scott Morrison is Prime Minister and an image du jour would be an exhausted firefighter covered in embers, emerging from a giant fireball exploding in the bush behind him, and asking: "So where the bloody hell is Australia?"
Climate change deniers say Australia has experienced many deadly bushfire seasons in the past, and so it has. But the scale, destructive power and forecast duration of this summer's fires leads many to cite climate change as the key underlying factor in the mayhem being visited upon the great Australian bush and choking Sydney.
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A nation crying out for leadership from Scott Morrison got excuses
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editor for The Sydney Morning Herald
December 14, 2019 — 12.00am
Scott Morrison made a declaration of national ambition this week. He wanted Australia to be the world's "model" country. "I want Australia to be in the leadership pack, if not even at the front of that pack, when it comes to our success," he told reporters in Melbourne on Thursday.
"I want us to be the model jurisdiction in the world." This is an admirable sentiment, the sort of ambition and leadership Australians want from their national leader.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has conceded that climate change could be contributing to the deadly bushfires raging in Australia.
But he was talking about only one particular field – the digital economy. It's a vital field, and a commendable aim. He announced a series of policy steps to tame the Big Tech buccaneers and protect Australia's national interests. Among those interests were the privacy of citizens. And, he said, he was also advancing "the safety of our children at the same time as realising the benefits to our economy that comes from these digital technologies".
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'Below potential': IMF warns of downside risks for Australian economy
By Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
Updated December 13, 2019 — 4.17pmfirst published at 2.02pm
The Morrison government has been warned the nation's "incipient recovery" is at risk with the International Monetary Fund urging it to embrace stimulus measures including direct cash handouts to shoppers and tax breaks for business if the economy deteriorates any further.
Ahead of the government's mid-year budget update, that will contain downgrades to key economic forecasts, the IMF also said the Reserve Bank might have to undertake quantitative easing to bolster an economy it warned faced downside risks and only a gradual improvement over the coming year.
Every year, officials from the IMF spend time in Australia talking to public authorities and private sector economists to gauge the economy's performance. At the start of the year, the fund expected the economy to grow 2.7 per cent, unemployment to fall to 4.8 per cent, wages to lift and household debt levels to drop.
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OECD push for global minimum rate of tax on multinationals
By Eryk Bagshaw, Jennifer Duke and Fergus Hunter
December 14, 2019 — 12.00am
A high-powered international delegation of business, government and tax leaders is pushing forward with plans to introduce a global minimum rate of tax on multinationals, including digital giants, as up to a dozen countries stand up to US resistance.
Amid increasing frustration at the Trump administration's proposals to stick with the status quo to protect Silicon Valley companies, leaders who met at the OECD in Paris on Friday have set a 12-month deadline to deliver a minimum rate of tax that would apply to multinationals' global profits, and a digital services tax that would hit companies such as Facebook, Google and Apple.
The discussions come as the Morrison government takes an increasingly aggressive line on the practices of online platforms, warning on Thursday it would not put up with digital companies shirking their tax obligations in "the real world".
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Revealed: why the government's forecasts are always way off
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
December 14, 2019 — 12.00am
Just to warm you up for the mid-year budget update on Monday, let me ask you: why do you think Treasury and the Reserve Bank have gone for a least the past eight years forecasting more growth in the economy than ever transpired?
Kieran Davies, a respected economist from National Australia Bank, has been checking. He says their mistake has been failing to allow for the decline in our “potential” growth rate since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Actually, Davies has checked only the Reserve’s forecasting record, not Treasury’s. But the two outfits use similar forecasting methods and use a Join Economic Forecasting Group to ensure their forecasts are never very different.
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APRA’S heatmap makes me see red
APRA’s “heatmap” disclosure of MySuper fund performances and fees was a good start, but the result was so appalling, and APRA’s methodology and response so inadequate, it’s hard to know where to begin. Colour my exasperation red.
How about this for a start: the median five-year performance of the default funds versus what APRA calls a “Simple Reference Portfolio, or SRP” (of passive, low-cost investments) was -0.07 per cent per annum. Yes, that’s a minus. The average was exactly zero.
In other words, the industry should give up. They add no value, in fact they destroy it … on average, as a group. Did APRA even calculate this, let alone express a view about it? Nope.
The average annual net investment return over the five years to June 30, 2019 was 7.28 per cent — which seems OK, except the ASX 200 index returned 8.77 per cent per annum compound over the same period. The difference is 1.49 per cent. The average MySuper fee is 1.4 per cent, so the industry managed to produce the stockmarket return minus fees. Thanks for that.
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Workers set for more disappointment as wage forecasts to be downgraded
By Shane Wright and Judith Ireland
December 15, 2019 — 12.15am
Workers hoping for a big lift in their pay packets are set to be disappointed, with the Morrison government to downgrade expected wages growth in its looming mid-year budget update.
In what would be another blow to cash-strapped households, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will use Monday’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook to again report lower-than-forecast wage increases.
The downgrade in wages growth will be a key element of the MYEFO update that will also reconcile extra spending for its bush stimulus package and response to the aged care royal commission. But on MYEFO-eve, aged care providers say further funds are urgently needed to keep hundreds of nursing homes open around the country.
When Treasury first forecast wages growth for 2019-20, in the 2016-17 budget, it was expecting a strong lift of 3.5 per cent.
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Royal Commissions And The Like.
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https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/nanny-rules-not-needed-on-bad-loans-20191210-p53in4
Nanny rules not needed on bad loans
ASIC’s responsible lending guidelines infantilise banks and borrowers.
Dec 11, 2019 — 12.00am
The Australian Securities and Investment Commission’s responsible lending guidelines could be worse. As ASIC rightly says, the responsibility for managing credit risk lies with lenders that want to be repaid, not the regulator. Hence prescriptive, credit-crimping, minimum loan standards haven’t been imposed on Australia’s banks. The black-letter regulatory burden has not increased, and the post-Hayne regulatory overreach by ASIC has been contained. The most likely reason for the light-touch approach is that the corporate watchdog does not want to be blamed for squeezing bank lending to home-buyers and small business.
But still, the banks and their customers have been infantilised. The 39 scenarios detailed in ASIC’s guidelines to help with “good lending decisions” expect banks to micro-manage the finances of prospective borrowers. It is ridiculous to expect loan officers and mortgage brokers to interrogate applicants about school fees and Netflix subscriptions. The onus for assessing capacity to repay loans should rest with the responsible adults wanting to borrow other people’s money. This is the only morally sound way for the banking system to operate.
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Hayne's $65b shock to Australia
The Hayne royal commission has set off a train of unintended consequences, culminating in the biggest collapse in bank lending in a generation.
Dec 12, 2019 — 4.18pm
The Australian economy has faltered in the past year. The Reserve Bank's forecasts have consistently proved to be too optimistic. Demand is weaker than expected, particularly consumer spending. Private investment continues to languish. Wages and inflation are lower than forecast. Unemployment is trending higher. Job vacancies are falling.
So what has happened?
It may be unfashionable and/or politically incorrect to say this, but it looks like the Hayne royal commission has set off a train of events that have led to this situation.
Bankers have become more conservative and risk averse in the wake of the royal commission.
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A revolution is coming for conflicted advisers
From January 1 commissions on listed investment companies and trusts will be banned, opening the way to huge compensation claims for losses incurred by any clients other than sophisticated institutional investors.
Dec 13, 2019 — 10.27am
In one of the biggest shake-ups of the financial advice industry in years, the government’s Financial Adviser Standards and Ethics Authority has blanket-banned conflicted sales commissions, including previously acceptable “stamping fees”, for advisers recommending listed investment funds to both retail and wholesale clients.
These conflicted payments were already banned under the 2012 Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) laws, which reshaped the financial planning market by ensuring advisers were only ever paid by their clients and not by product manufacturers, like fund managers, trying to motivate them to sell their wares to retail and wholesale customers.
The presence of sales commissions paid to advisers created endless mis-selling crises where inappropriate products were foisted on consumers in the name of capturing the associated fees, which FOFA brought to an end.
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11 December 2019
Is the royal commission ultimately failing the aged?
Recently the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety released its Interim Report making a key observation: the aged care system has deep and entrenched systemic flaws.
Key systemic failures include that the system:
· is designed around transactions, not relationships or care
· minimises the voices of people receiving care and their loved ones
· is hard to navigate and does not provide the information people need to make informed choices about their care
· relies on a regulatory model that does not provide transparency or an incentive to improve
· has a workforce that is under pressure, under-appreciated and lacks key skills.1
The commission has promised that its final report will deliver recommendations for a whole-of-system reform and redesign. The intentions are laudable, but the language is highly ambiguous. Reform and redesign have entirely different meanings.
Reform equals “tinkering at the edges” of the current system or framework, whereas redesign is the courageous step of drawing a line in the sand and drawing up a new and different framework.2
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National Budget Issues.
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Please, no more Pollyanna impressions in the budget update
Ross Gittins
Economics Editor
December 9, 2019 — 12.00am
The mid-year budget update we’ll see next Monday presents the government and its econocrats with a threshold question: can their battered credibility withstand one more set of economic forecasts based on little more than naive optimism?
Or won’t it matter if first the industry experts, and then the Quiet Australians in voterland, get the message that budgets are largely works of fiction - based on political spin, with forecasts crafted to fit - and so are not to be believed?
Last week’s national accounts confirmed five successive quarters of weak growth in the economy and left Reserve Bank governor Dr Philip Lowe’s lovely thought of the economy reaching a “gentle turning-point” looking pretty ragged.
Maybe if you squint you could see a pattern of improvement, with the economy’s weakness concentrated in the last two quarters of 2018 (growth in real GDP of 0.3 per cent and 0.2 per cent), and strength returning in the first three quarters of this year: 0.5 per cent, 0.6 per cent and now 0.4 per cent.
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Health Issues.
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The 14:10 diet can prevent diabetes, stroke
Dec 8, 2019 — 3.45pm
Eating within a 10-hour window can help those at risk of diabetes, heart disease or stroke to lose weight, reduce cholesterol and sleep better, a study has found.
The 19 participants, who had been diagnosed with metabolic syndrome, were not told to count calories or exercise more – they just had to have all their meals within 10 hours each day for 12 weeks.
"They could eat whatever they felt like," said one of the study's authors, Dr Michael Wilkinson from the University of California San Diego School of Medicine.
While previous studies have found time-restricted eating can help healthy people lose weight and improve blood sugar, the researchers said this is the first time a study has looked at the effects of time-restricted eating on people with metabolic syndrome.
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Medibank warns of health insurance crisis
One of the nation’s biggest health insurers has appealed for governments and healthcare providers to work with insurers to deliver a sustainable private health sector as it sounded the alarm on the “urgent” need for reform to drive down costs.
The warning comes after the federal government announced average private health insurance premiums would rise by 2.92 per cent in 2020, the smallest increase in 19 years and well below the healthcare inflation rate of 3.8 per cent.
“There has never been a more urgent time for further reform to drive down the cost of healthcare in Australia,” Medibank chief customer officer David Koczkar said.
“We can no longer ignore that we are paying up to three times the price for some medical devices in the private system when compared to the public system, or that prostheses prices in the Australian private hospital setting are among the highest in the world.
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'Tis the season to get serious on aged care: Here's some tips to help
By Rachel Lane
December 8, 2019 — 12.00am
It is the time of year when families come together, maybe for the first time since last Christmas, and realise that Mum or Dad – or both – need some additional care or support.
So, if your family gathering turns into a conversation about "what are we going to do" with your parents, here are some tips for navigating aged-care in the new year.
Talk about it
Conversations about aged care can be hard. Maintaining good communication and having a "with you" rather than "to you" attitude can make the transition easier for everyone.
Get an ACAT
The first step in accessing a Home Care Package, respite or moving to an aged-care facility is to have an Aged Care Assessment Team (ACAT) evaluate your parent. It’s a free and easy but you can be waiting many weeks, sometimes months, at busy times. Get in early.
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Health funds call for urgent reform after government caps price hikes
By Patrick Hatch
December 9, 2019 — 11.46am
Health funds strong-armed by the government into rising their membership fees by the lowest annual rate in 19 years have called for "urgent" industry reform to help them deal with their rising costs.
Health minister Greg Hunt on Saturday said health insurance premiums would increase by an average of 2.92 per cent next April, after rejecting the funds' proposal for averages hikes of 3.5 per cent.
The smallest annual increase since 2001 will come as a relief for consumers, whose wages are only growing at 2.2 per cent annually and have been dropping out of the private system because of affordability.
But insurers say they are being squeezed by hospital claim costs which are rising faster than their revenue and an exodus of younger people from the private system, which has been likened by some as akin to a "death spiral".
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Free up pharmacists to help disaster victims, researchers say
By Stuart Layt
December 10, 2019 — 12.49pm
Laws need to be changed to allow pharmacists to fully support their local communities during natural disasters such as bushfires, researchers claim.
Kaitlyn Watson from QUT’s School of Clinical Sciences has led a review of laws in Australia and around the world governing pharmacists in the wake of natural disasters.
Dr Watson said, in natural disaster situations, residents were often not thinking about medicines and other necessities they might need, but they soon would.
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WA legalises voluntary assisted dying
Dec 11, 2019 — 1.04am
Perth | Western Australia has voted to legalise voluntary assisted dying, bringing to an emotional end a lengthy and often heated parliamentary debate.
MPs exchanged hugs and onlookers in the public gallery burst into applause as the lower house on Tuesday spent more than five hours approving the last of 55 amendments to the government's bill before rising.
WA is the second Australian state after Victoria to legalise voluntary assisted dying, with the scheme expected to be implemented in 18 months.
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Rules for doctors, pharmacists tightened in new religious discrimination bill
By Judith Ireland
December 10, 2019 — 10.00pm
A pharmacist could refuse to dispense contraception and a doctor could refuse to provide fertility treatment under the government's proposed new religious discrimination laws, provided they declined to provide that particular service to all patients.
Attorney-General Christian Porter said the second draft of the religious discrimination bill, released on Tuesday, would allow doctors, nurses, midwives, pharmacists and psychologists to conscientiously object as long as it was "to a procedure, not a person".
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Mr Porter unveiled 11 key changes to the bill after receiving about 6000 written submissions about the government's first effort, including criticism from church, business and community groups.
Mr Morrison said Australians held diverse beliefs and this was "a key part of who we are as a country". "This is a bill for all Australians," he told reporters in Sydney. "Australia is a country of respect and of tolerance."
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Religious freedom laws 'will not allow doctors to discriminate against patients'
The revamped draft legislation is about 'protecting conscientious objection to particular procedures, not patients'
11th December 2019
By Kemal Atlay
A new regime for conscientious objection will allow doctors to refuse treatments, such as prescription of hormone-replacement therapies to transgender patients, on religious grounds, provided they refuse to provide the treatments to all their patients.
The first draft of the Religious Discrimination Bill being pushed by the Federal Government has undergone a major rewrite, amid concerns it allowed health professionals to discriminate against patients based on their race, sexuality, gender or disability.
On Tuesday, Attorney-General Christian Porter revealed a new version that he said made it “absolutely clear that the conscientious objection of a medical professional has to be to a procedure, not to an individual person”.
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Health insurers call for federal crackdown on public hospital 'fraud'
By Dana McCauley
December 11, 2019 — 8.45pm
Health funds are calling on federal health minister Greg Hunt to use the government's new data-matching powers to stop public hospitals from rorting patients with private health insurance by allowing inexperienced doctors to treat them instead of their chosen specialist.
Private Healthcare Australia chief executive Rachel David said funds had evidence suggesting some public hospitals are ripping off members by admitting them as private patients – which entitles them to a doctor of their choice by law – only to have a junior doctor treat them.
"It's important for the sake of the patient coming in that they get the treatment they are entitled to, and that they've paid for," Dr David said.
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Not so busy - Australia's fertility rate falls to record low
By Shane Wright
December 11, 2019 — 7.15pm
Australia's fertility rate has fallen to an all-time low despite a record number of babies being born.
Figures compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that through 2018 there were 315,417 births registered across the country. It was an increase of 1.9 per cent or 6000 births through the nation's maternity wards on 2017.
A third of the babies were registered in NSW while Victoria accounted for 79,675.
In Western Australia, the number of births registered tumbled to 33,257, its lowest result since 2010. There was also a sharp drop in the nation's capital, down by almost 13 per cent after a particularly fecund 2016.
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New front opens up in the battle against cancer
By Stuart Layt
December 12, 2019 — 8.11am
Researchers have isolated a promising treatment for cancers that resist more common forms of immunotherapy.
QIMR Berghofer scientists have been looking into tumours that essentially counter the body’s army of protector T and NK cells by enlisting regulator cells known as MAIT cells, which are produced by the body to stop our immune systems attacking healthy cells.
The tumours trick the MAIT cells into working for them by producing a protein called MR1, which calls the MAIT cells to action to suppress the body’s natural immune response.
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Private health insurance premiums should be based on age and health status
December 13, 2019 5.54am AEDT
Authors
Associate Professor; Head of Health Policy Program, Sir Walter Murdoch School of Public Policy and International Affairs, University of Newcastle
Lecturer in Accounting and Finance, University of Newcastle
Research fellow, Department of Sociology and Business Law, Università di Bologna
Private health insurance has come under intense scrutiny in recent months, as it becomes clear health insurers are failing to stop the exodus of young people dropping their cover.
Legislated age-based discounts began in April 2019 but haven’t achieved their aim of keeping young people in private health insurance. In July to September, the largest decreases in coverage were for people aged between 25 and 34, and in particular 25- to 29 year-olds, with more than 7,000 people in that age group dropping their private health insurance cover in that period.
This trend should come as no surprise. We’ve known since the 1970s that young people drop out of private health in voluntary insurance markets, especially those with an underlying universal public system such as Medicare. If too many young people exit the system, premiums go up for everyone.
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'Horrified' doctors call for direct action on bushfire health threat
By Kate Aubusson
December 12, 2019 — 1.35pm
Doctors are urging the federal government to spearhead direct action to combat the "unprecedented public health threat" of the bushfires.
Doctors for the Environment Australia spokesman Dr Richard Yin said doctors had been "horrified" by the reaction of the Morrison government to the serious health impacts of severe air pollution triggered by the fires.
"This is an unprecedented public health challenge to affect Australia and yet our government proposes ‘business as usual’ in relation to greenhouse gas emissions," Dr Yin, a GP, said.
"Surely this is a wake-up call to seriously address the changing climate that threatens our lives now and those of our children."
In Sydney on Tuesday, the air quality index reached 11 times higher than "hazardous" in many parts and there were 234 presentations to emergency departments with asthma and breathing problems – twice the average number of 130.
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Finally, some hope for Australians with lung cancer
If a national screening program for lung cancer is introduced, it will save lives and help to strip away the stigma of the biggest cancer killer in Australia.
Dec 14, 2019 — 12.00am
When the principal of a private girls school in North Sydney was told she had lung cancer, the diagnosing doctor asked if she smoked. When she replied that she never had, he said, “Well, you might want to think about taking it up now.”
For Briony Scott, principal of Wenona School, this dark exchange hinted at the mindset that has kept lung cancer – the biggest killer of all cancers in Australia – out of the public eye.
Although lung cancer now kills more than 9000 Australians every year, historically it has been under-funded and, unlike breast or skin cancer, it is not part of the public discourse.
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NSW bushfires: 'apocalyptic' health effects of Sydney's toxic air
By Kate Aubusson and Nigel Gladstone
December 14, 2019 — 12.00am
As Sydney chokes on bushfire smoke, doctors and environmental health experts warn they were flying blind when it came to predicting the long-term effects of breathing toxic air for months over a long, dry and hot summer.
For the past month, hospitals have been inundated with patients struggling to breathe, slow their beating hearts, or calm their consuming anxiety as the smog, ash and refuse of 2.7 million scorched hectares swept the east coast.
When Sydney's air pollution soared to levels 11 times higher than the "hazardous" threshold on Tuesday, NSW emergency departments scrambled to treat 234 patients presenting with asthma and breathing problems – twice the average number for a single day this time of year.
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Leaked document shows NSW Health needs $1b in job cuts to plug funding gap
By Matt Bungard
December 15, 2019 — 12.00am
Nurses and paramedics could face job cuts of up to 10 per cent as NSW Health contemplates ways to deal with an anticipated financial shortfall of $7 to $10 billion over the next decade.
A leaked internal presentation - parts of which were obtained by The Sun-Herald - shows senior bureaucrats are considering several means of "dramatic change required to close the gap" and reduce the department's spending by 20 per cent in the next 10 years.
The slides were shown at a high-level strategy and planning meeting in November, and cited rising demand, changing demographics and patient needs, and growing complexity as the three key reasons for future budget overruns.
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International Issues.
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'We must not give up': Thousands march for democracy in Hong Kong
December 8, 2019 — 9.28pm
Hong Kong: Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators crammed into Hong Kong's streets on Sunday in a march seen as a test of the enduring appeal of an anti-government movement about to mark six months of demonstrations.
Chanting "Fight for freedom" and "Stand with Hong Kong," a sea of protesters formed a huge human snake winding through the Causeway Bay shopping district.
The protest ground to a standstill at times, with thousands of marchers crammed into the narrow streets, their cries of "Revolution in our times" echoing off the high-rise towers.
Many held up five fingers to press their five demands, which include democratic elections for
Hong Kong’s leader and legislature.
Hong Kong’s leader and legislature.
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Beyond cricket and curry: India could be the next big thing
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editor for The Sydney Morning Herald
December 10, 2019 — 12.01am
Australia has been talking about the huge potential of India for decades now. It still is. "It's a classic case of underperformance – high on potential, low on delivery," says Shaurya Doval, the head of the India Foundation, a think tank aligned with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, during a visit to Melbourne on Monday.
India, already the world's fifth biggest economy, is expected to be No. 3 within 15 years. And also the most populous, overtaking a fast-ageing China around the same time. "The sky is the limit," says Shaurya.
The founder of London-based investment company Greater Pacific Capital, Ketan Patel, says India is on an unstoppable trajectory, despite a recent growth slowdown: "It took India over 50 years to become a $US1 trillion economy, it took seven years to become a $US2 trillion economy, and five years to get to three trillion", which it's projected to reach this year. India's government has now declared that it plans to hit $US5 trillion in another five years.
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Democrats unveil articles of impeachment against Donald Trump
By Matthew Knott
December 11, 2019 — 1.37am
Washington: Democrats have unveiled two articles of impeachment against Donald Trump, accusing him of abusing his presidential power and obstructing Congress's attempts to investigate his dealings with Ukraine.
The announcement sets the stage for Trump to be impeached by the House of Representatives next week, making him just the third president in US history to receive that rebuke.
Speaking in Washington on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said it was a "solemn day" for the nation.
Jerry Nadler, the chair of the House Judiciary Committee, said Trump had "solicited and pressured Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 presidential election" by asking the country's president to investigate the son of his potential rival Joe Biden.
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The legacy and lessons of Paul Volcker
In tackling today’s challenges, the details of what Volcker did are irrelevant. But his lessons are not: do the right thing even if the right choice is rather less obvious today; do not put your trust in unbridled finance; and have courage.
Dec 11, 2019 — 11.27am
Paul Volcker is the greatest man I have known. He is endowed to the highest degree with what the Romans called virtus (virtue): moral courage, integrity, sagacity, prudence and devotion to the service of country.”
Thus did I open my review of his memoir, Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government, published last year. As Hamlet said of his father, “He was a man, take him for all in all. I shall not look upon his like again.”
That book was Volcker’s counsel to the world. It embodied the former US Federal Reserve chairman’s virtues and his values. With his passing this week, we need to dwell on both, while recognising how different the world is today.
Volcker’s virtues are eternal. It is impossible to enjoy a stable polity without public servants of his quality and, as important, without a public who know they need public servants of this quality. In no other way can what the Romans called res publica (a republic) — literally, “the public thing” — be sustained. We rely on the marriage of ability to character. We forget that truth at our peril.
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Fed holds rates steady, expects moderate economic growth next year
Howard Schneider and Lindsay Dunsmuir
Dec 12, 2019 — 6.04am
Washington | The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signalled borrowing costs are likely to remain unchanged indefinitely, with moderate economic growth and low unemployment expected to continue through next year's presidential election.
"Our economic outlook remains a favourable one, despite global developments and ongoing risks," Fed chairman Jerome Powell said in a news conference following the decision.
"We believe monetary policy is well positioned to serve the American people by supporting continued economic growth, a strong job market and inflation near our 2 per cent goal."
The decision by the US central bank's rate-setting committee left the benchmark overnight lending rate in its current target range between 1.50 per cent and 1.75 per cent.
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The most depressing thing about Trump's attack on Greta Thunberg
The president's always-loyal base applauds him when he indulges his basest impulses, in this case for attacking a 16-year-old girl.
Karen Tumulty
Dec 13, 2019 — 4.28am
Is there nothing too petty for this president?
Early Thursday morning, President Donald Trump took to Twitter (where his current follower count is 67.5 million) to attack a 16-year-old girl with Asperger's syndrome and tell her to "work on her Anger Management problem".
As always with Trump, when he accuses someone else of something, we get a window into what he himself is feeling. So it's fair to ask: What did Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg do to make the projectionist-in-chief so hopping mad?
The answer: She was named Time magazine's Person of the Year.
Time covers are something of a fixation for this president. Back when he was a reality-TV star, he decorated the walls of at least five of his golf clubs with fake ones featuring his own face.
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US-China agree to partial trade deal
Dec 14, 2019 — 6.04am
Beijing-Washington | China and the US have reached a phase one trade deal, which will halt tariffs that were set to take effect this weekend and wind back some earlier tariffs.
China’s state media said the agreement was based on “the principle of equality and mutual respect”.
Senior Chinese officials told reporters in Beijing that Washington agreed to cancel a 15 per cent tariff on US$160 billion of goods that was scheduled to take effect on Saturday.
Separately, President Donald Trump said the United States would also reduce existing import taxes on about $US112 billion in Chinese goods from 15 per cent to 7.5 per cent.
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Boris won the election, so what's next?
The PM has passed a big test. But now he has to work out how to deliver Brexit, and keep hold of the new blue-collar voters he has won over.
Dec 13, 2019 — 3.05pm
Blyth Valley is a hardscrabble former mining community in England's far north. Its inhabitants traditionally harbour a visceral hatred of Tories, fuelled not least by Margaret Thatcher's pit closures, and have faithfully returned a Labour MP for half a century.
But a mental health worker named Ian Levy has changed all that. Late on Thursday night (Friday AEDT) he won the Blyth Valley seat for the Conservative Party – a result that took the political establishment's breath away.
In his victory speech, though, he didn't take the credit for himself. "I'd like to thank Boris," he said, referring to his party leader, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. "I'm going to London, we're going to get Brexit done, and we're going to build a strong economy."
In other words, it was Brexit wot won it. Levy and Johnson reeled in this unlikely victory on a 5.8 per cent swing from Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, abetted by Nigel Farage's Brexit Party chiselling another 8.3 per cent off the Labour vote.
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Nicola Sturgeon backs new Scottish independence vote after election landslide
By Bevan Shields
December 14, 2019 — 1.41am
London: Prime Minister Boris Johnson will move to quash a new push for Scottish independence amid a surge in nationalism that poses a fresh threat to the United Kingdom just as it prepares to move on from Brexit.
Emboldened by a stunning performance at the general election, Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon on Friday flagged a potential constitutional showdown with Westminster over the mechanism needed to trigger a second independence referendum.
Johnson's pro-Brexit Conservative Party lost seven of its 13 Scottish seats at the general election as the SNP's share of the vote surged 8.1 per cent to 45 per cent. The party now holds 48 of the 59 MPs in Scotland in a result that has been widely interpreted as evidence that many Scots have not given up on splitting from the UK and joining the European Union following the loss of the first independence referendum in 2014.
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US-China deal cuts tariffs for Beijing
· Associated Press
The United States and China announced a "Phase one" trade agreement that reduces some US tariffs in exchange for a big jump in Chinese purchases of American farm products and other goods.
Beijing has agreed to import at least $US200 billion in additional US goods and services over the next two years on top of the amount it purchased in 2017, US officials say.
If the purchases are made, they would represent a huge jump in US exports to China. China bought $US130 billion in US goods in 2017, before the trade war began, and $US56 billion in services, US Bureau of Economic Analysis data show.
In return, the United States would suspend tariffs on Chinese goods due to go into effect on Sunday and reduce others, US officials said.
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Two big tipping points in 2019 went largely unnoticed
Matt Wade
Senior economics writer
December 15, 2019 — 12.00am
Trade wars, political turmoil and climate crisis grabbed headlines in 2019. But two things of enormous significance happened without much notice.
Analysis by economists Homi Kharas of the Brookings Institution and Wolfgang Fengler of the World Bank reveals the world has reached a “double tipping point”.
One has to do with age: for the first time ever, there are as many people in the world over the age of 30 as there are people under the age of 30. And the share of over-30s is now set to grow rapidly.
Reaching that demographic milestone “has profound implications for the global economy”, say Kharas and Fengler. In the pre-modern era, the typical life span was only about 30 years. But the world’s average life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900 and now stands at around 72 years.
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North Korea conducts new test launch
· Reuters
North Korea says it has conducted another test at a satellite launch site, the latest in a string of developments aimed at "restraining and overpowering the nuclear threat of the US".
The test was conducted on Friday at the Sohae satellite launch site, state news agency KCNA reported on Saturday.
The agency cited a spokesman for North Korea's Academy of Defence Science, without specifying what sort of testing occurred.
In a later statement carried by KCNA, Chief of the General Staff Pak Jong Chon said the tests were designed to bolster North Korea's defences by developing new weapons.
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Queen to set out Johnson's agenda
· Reuters
The Queen will set out British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's legislative agenda following his election victory, including a pledge to bring the EU Withdrawal Agreement bill back to parliament before Christmas.
Johnson led his Conservative Party on Thursday to their biggest national election win since Margaret Thatcher's landslide victory of 1987, trouncing his socialist Labour Party opponent Jeremy Corbyn by winning 365 parliamentary seats and securing an overall majority of 80. Johnson fought the election on the slogan "Get Brexit done".
The Queen's Speech is used to detail all the bills the government plans to enact over the coming year. It is written by the government and will be delivered by the monarch from a throne in parliament's gilded House of Lords debating chamber.
Thursday's speech to parliament will be the 93-year-old Queen's second in as many months. She made one on October 14, shortly before the election was called following a prolonged deadlock in parliament over the government's Brexit plans.
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Major economies resist at climate summit
· Reuters
Major economies have resisted calls for bolder climate commitments as a UN summit in Madrid limps towards a delayed conclusion.
With the two-week gathering spilling into the weekend, campaigners and many delegates slammed Chile, presiding over the talks, for drafting a summit text they said risked throwing the 2015 Paris Agreement into reverse.
"At a time when scientists are queuing up to warn about terrifying consequences if emissions keep rising, and school children are taking to the streets in their millions, what we have here in Madrid is a betrayal of people across the world," said Mohamed Adow, director of climate and energy think-tank Power Shift Africa.
The annual climate marathon had been due to conclude on Friday, but dragged on with ministers mired in multiple disputes over implementing the Paris deal.
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Johnson victory propels UK towards Brexit
· Deutsche Presse Agentur
Britain is speeding towards Brexit after Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a crushing election victory, ending three years of uncertainty since the country decided to leave the bloc.
Exiting the European Union, a goal Johnson has pursued relentlessly since he put himself forward as the face of the victorious leave campaign in a 2016 referendum, is Britain's biggest leap into the unknown since World War II.
Johnson is now free to lead his country swiftly out of the vast trading bloc but faces the daunting task of negotiating trade deals around the world, not least with the EU itself, and of keeping a divided kingdom in one piece.
"We will get Brexit done on time by the 31st of January, no ifs, no buts, no maybes," a triumphant Johnson told cheering supporters as a grey dawn broke over London on Friday.
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UK Election 2019 vote puts Scotland, Boris Johnson on collision course
· The Times
Nicola Sturgeon will demand powers from Boris Johnson next week to hold a second Scottish independence referendum, arguing that the Scottish National Party’s election surge gives her a mandate for a ballot by the end of next year.
Civil servants have finalised a Scottish government document that makes the case for another constitutional contest. It will be sent to the prime minister on Tuesday or Wednesday as the Scottish first minister furthers her push to break up Britain.
The SNP won a resounding victory in Scotland, gaining 12 seats and securing 45 per cent of the vote, the same percentage of the electorate that supported separation in 2014.
It gave the party 47 of the country’s 59 seats, up from the 35 that it claimed in 2017. A candidate suspended from the SNP for sharing anti-Semitic material online won his seat from Labour’s Lesley Laird, the shadow Scottish secretary.
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Key takeaways from Trump's 'phase one' China trade deal
Heather Long
Dec 14, 2019 — 7.27am
Washington | It's official. President Donald Trump and China have agreed to a "phase one" trade deal after 21 months of wrangling and pain.
Trump tweeted that the agreement is "large" and "amazing" on Friday. In a rare news conference, Chinese officials emphasised that it is "based on equality" and a win-win for both sides. And though both camps were quick to praise the deal, the text of it has yet to be released. So far, neither side has even released a fact sheet, a reminder that much remains in flux.
What we know so far is this: Trump agreed to scale back some tariffs (which was China's top demand and was cheered on Wall Street). In exchange, China said it will buy more US farm products (which Beijing had wanted to do anyway), enhance its intellectual property protections and allow US banks and credit card companies full access to China.
The emerging consensus is that this deal helps Trump's 2020 election prospects. On the actual substance, he got China to give a little, but not a lot.
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I look forward to comments on all this!
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David.
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