Quote Of The Year

Timeless Quotes - Sadly The Late Paul Shetler - "Its not Your Health Record it's a Government Record Of Your Health Information"

or

H. L. Mencken - "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."

Thursday, March 19, 2020

The Macro View – Health, Economics, and Politics and the Big Picture. What I Am Watching Here And Abroad.

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Well it has all been about COVID-19 this week largely – with the odd rocket fired in Iraq at dissidents.
The key points are that the US has declared a state of emergency and are trying to find enough tests to find out just how bad their problem it. Right now they have no idea bur are admitting to 2000 + cases.
In the UK Boris is warning that more that usual numbers will die.
In Australia things are being cancelled right, left and centre – even the One Day Cricket!. Will cause a rush on Netflix I reckon…
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Major Issues.

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Proposed bill will enshrine religion's right to discriminate

The Herald's View
March 8, 2020 — 4.47pm
Born out of the contentious debate over same-sex marriage, the religious discrimination bill was always going to attract its fair share of attention. The Morrison government has now released two drafts of the bill and, based on the response from a broad array of groups, appears no closer to finding the right balance.
Much of the bill is reasonable and follows existing laws against discrimination on the basis of race, sex, age and disability. It follows such precedents as prohibiting discrimination against a person because of their religious belief in such cases as being denied employment because, for example, they are Muslim or Buddhist.
But then, in a remarkable about-face, the same bill sets about giving religious organisations and individuals the ability to override such precedents so long as it's in good faith with their doctrines, tenets, beliefs or teachings, including the right to discriminate against someone to “avoid injury to the religious susceptibilities of adherents” to the religion.
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ASX plunges 7pc in worst day since the GFC

Luke Housego Reporter
Mar 9, 2020 — 5.06pm
In the worst day for the ASX since the global financial crisis (GFC), a growing concerns about threats to global consumption combined with the largest fall in oil prices since the Gulf War tore $137 billion from the value of shares.
The S&P/ASX 200 index plunged 455.6 points, or 7.3 per cent, to end Monday's trade at 5705.6.
The decline on the local market since it touched a high two weeks ago on February 20 has now ballooned to 19.6 per cent.
Energy companies lost a fifth of their value on Monday as investors responded to a collapse in the price of oil triggered by a spat over output between Moscow and Riyadh.
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A market panic like we've never seen before

Monday's panic cannot be compared to 2008, nor any other violent and dramatic sell-off. But for most, the market is not their primary concern.
Jonathan Shapiro Senior Reporter
Mar 9, 2020 — 6.12pm
On Monday, the sharemarket was in a state of panic not seen in over a decade.
The ordinary public's unease was growing too, but not about the 7 per cent crash in the All Ords, even if they had part of their fortune tied to it.
The barista at the train station said he didn't care about the sharemarket, nor money for that matter. He was more worried about peoples' health. Meanwhile, the cab-driver's perspective was that if he lost money he could always make it back. If he got sick he might not recover.
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IMF warns of breakdown in financial systems, workplaces

Jacob Greber United States Correspondent
Mar 10, 2020 — 12.01am
Washington | The International Monetary Fund is ringing alarm bells about sluggish government responses to the intensifying economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, urging policy solutions to avoid lasting damage.
“This health crisis will have a significant economic fallout,” said Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, in a statement in Washington on Monday (Tuesday AEDT).
Warning that the ever-expanding hit would be different to that of past crises, Dr Gopinath said governments would need to act to keep “intact the web of economic and financial relationships between workers and businesses, lenders and borrowers”.
“The goal is to prevent a temporary crisis from permanently harming people and firms through job losses and bankruptcies,” she said.
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'I think I've made a mistake': Gerry Harvey loses $1.5m trying to beat plunging market
March 11, 2020 — 12.00am
Retail magnate and Harvey Norman founder Gerry Harvey has proven the investment adage of 'never try to catch a falling knife' after losing $1.5 million trying to bag a suite of bargain shares on Friday.
The retailer told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald from his Adelaide Magic Millions racehorse sale that he spent $1 million each on 15 different stocks – a total of $15 million – following the week-long market rout on Friday, hoping to catch the bottom of the market and secure a good yield.
Mr Harvey picked up shares in Woodside, BHP, Rio Tinto, Australia’s big four banks, Computershare and, of course, Harvey Norman, many of which were at 12-month lows due to coronavirus fears infecting global markets.
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'Buy the dip' is a fallacy; stocks are more expensive than they seem

Indexes already reflect the latest reality, but profit forecasts don't yet. That means the current price-to-earnings ratios are logical fallacies.
Srinivasan Sivabalan
Mar 13, 2020 — 5.41am
Tempted by the cheap valuations the equity rout has produced? Think again: Stocks may still be much more expensive than they seem.
The ratio of price to estimated earnings for the S&P 500 Index has fallen to 15.5 times, much lower than the dotcom era's 25.7 and almost the same as at the start of the bull market. Emerging-market stocks are similar: The benchmark gauge has fallen below its lifetime average valuation and is also 30 per cent cheaper than its all-time high.
But stock prices discount known risks more quickly than analysts' estimates for earnings, which follow with a time lag. Indexes already reflect the latest reality, but profit forecasts don't yet. That means the current price-to-earnings ratios are logical fallacies.
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Ancient clam shows how the days are getting longer

An ancient mollusc has revealed how, 70 million years ago, a day lasted only 23½ hours.
Analysis of a fossilised clam shell has provided a newly accurate measure of how quickly the Earth turned on its axis during the late Cretaceous period.
During these last days of the ­dinosaurs our world rotated 372 times a year, compared with the present 365, a study suggests. This would have made each day about half an hour shorter.
Researchers at Vrije University in Brussels were able to deduce this because the mollusc grew rapidly, laying down a growth ring each day. Examining these layers at a microscopic level, they were able to uncover detailed evidence of how environmental conditions changed around the mollusc — both from hour to hour and from season to season.
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Don't panic: super is a long-term game, experts say


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